1. The Yankees are the best team in the American League, but the combination of injuries, poor roster construction and their annual summer vacation cost them the division for a second straight season. They lost Giancarlo Stanton for “24 hours” at the end of April and he hasn’t played since. They lost Aaron Judge for 96 games. Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Jose Caballero, Austin Wells and Ryan McMahon each landed on the injured list, while Trent Grisham, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon all landed on it twice. They let Camilo Doval and Jake Bird blow games and spent another half-season trying to sell the world on Anthony Volpe as a shortstop. They suffered a midseason slump with bad summer series losses to the Reds, Tigers and Twins, but nothing was worse than getting swept in a four-game series by the Red Sox at Fenway Park. That series is why the Yankees are playing the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series for the second straight season.
2. The Yankees went into that June 25-28 series with the Red Sox with a three-game division lead. The Red Sox were 32-46, had fired their manager, were 15 1/2 games out in the division and in last place in the AL. In the first game of that series, the Yankees had a 2-0 lead in the fifth inning with Cam Schlittler on the mound adding to his career domination of the Red Sox. The Red Sox were on their way to falling 15 games under .500. Their season was over. At least until the Yankees pulled out the defibrillators on defense and brought the Red Sox back to life. A comedy of errors led the Red Sox to a 6-3 win. Schlittler allowed no earned runs with nine strikeouts over five innings and took the loss. The Red Sox won the next day, and the next day and the next day and kept on winning, ripping off a 32-5 run to turn their season around. The 15 1/2-game lead the Yankees had over the Red Sox eventually dwindled down to a half-game, but thankfully, the Red Sox never passed the Yankees in the standings or the venue for the games this week would be Fenway Park and not Yankee Stadium.
3. The Yankees have no one to blame other than themselves for having to play in the best-of-3 Wild Card Series for a second straight year. They have no one to blame other than themselves for the Red Sox — the one AL team that possesses their kryptonite with an abundance of left-handed pitching — being their opponent. Like last year, if the Yankees were to play the Red Sox in a best-of-5, my confidence would be much greater than it is now, even without Judge and with Stanton relegated to a one-at-bat-at-most-per-game role. If the Yankees had to play them in a best-of-7, my confidence would be through the roof. But in a three-game series? I don’t know if there is any measurable confidence in a best-of-3. Just like there wasn’t last year when the Yankees eked out a series win with Judge and Stanton against a Red Sox roster inferior to this year’s.
That’s not because the Yankees are an inferior team. Quite the opposite. When they’re not beating themselves, the Yankees are a much better team than the Red Sox, even without Judge and Stanton. It’s because it’s a BEST-OF-3 SERIES. The Yankees lost three-game series this season to the Athletics, Orioles, Blue Jays, Reds, Tigers, Twins and Cardinals. The Rockies swept the Red Sox in a three-game series this year. It’s three games! The margin for error is slim and for the Aaron Boone Yankees who have always played as if their margin for error is infinite, it’s not an ideal setting. After Tuesday night, one team will be on the brink of elimination.
4. I have to believe Cam Schlittler will dominate the Red Sox like he always has in Game 1. I can’t entertain thoughts that he could be tired, that he’s due for a clunker against a team he has dominated or that he could get outpitched by Payton Tolle, even if it’s very conceivable he could get outpitched by Tolle. Tolle is the Red Sox’ Schlittler, just left-handed and smilier and fatter with a mustache. The Yankees had 46 plate appearances against Tolle in 2026 and went 4-for-43 with three walks, 18 strikeouts and a .093/.152/.163 slash line. The Yankees scored one run against Tolle in 13 innings and that one run was a Jazz Chisholm home run at Fenway Park around Pesky’s Pole. Last season, Garrett Crochet (who is on the Red Sox’ Wild Card Series roster) made four starts against the Yankees and the Red Sox won all of them with Crochet allowing just four walks and recording 39 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings, and yet, Tolle has been more dominant against the Yankees.
If there is offense while Schlittler and Tolle are in the game, it’s likely to come from a home run. Schlittler and Tolle combined for 342 1/3 innings and only allowed 252 hits. It’s nearly impossible to envision either of them allowing a series of consecutive hits to plate runs. Only 31 of the 1,364 combined hitters they faced hit home runs, but the 2.3 percent chance that someone gets a mistake over the short porch is the only believable way the duo would allow a run (or runs) to be scored on Tuesday. For two starters who walk few, strike out many and rarely allow hits, let alone home runs, hitting a mistake out is the best and may be the only chance to score.
5. Fortunately, the Yankees are much better at hitting home runs than the Red Sox. The Yankees were second in the majors in home runs (three fewer than the Astros) in a season in which Judge missed 96 games and Stanton missed 138. The Red Sox were 26th in the majors in home runs. If the long ball is the path to generating offense and being the difference in a game started by two pitchers who both own the opposition, the Yankees’ lineup is better constructed to do so. (Now watch some bum like Nick Sogard hit one out in Game 1.)
6. But that’s about where the positivity on lineup construction ends for the Yankees. As of Tuesday morning — the morning of the start of the postseason — the Yankees’ postseason roster was mostly unknown and only three of nine lineup spots were set in stone: left field (Cody Bellinger), shortstop (George Lombard Jr.) and catcher (Austin Wells). The Yankees are a team full of mostly designated hitters, built like an autodrafted fantasy team. They have three possible first basemen: one who can’t hit righties, one who can’t hit lefties and one who can’t field. They have three possible second basemen: one who has all the talent in the world but is mentally fragile and a postseason disaster, one who is pesky but reckless and one who just started playing the position in August. They have four options at third base: one who is owed a lot of money but is the worst non-catcher offensive player in the sport, one who is an extreme liability and the reason the Red Sox won that Schlittler start to save their season in June, one who is the pesky-but-reckless option from second base and one who is the second base option that just started playing second and also just started playing third. In center field, they can either play a rookie who can’t field, strikes out a ton, but can hit home runs or a veteran who can’t run and can’t hit postseason pitching, but has good plate discipline. In right field, it’s either move the rookie center fielder to right or the all-world left fielder to right or play the guy who mashes left-handed pitching but fields like he’s drunk or blindfolded (or both).
7. Not having a one-size-fits-all lineup like championship teams have or even a set lineup for lefties and righties means a lot of crucial, season-changing decisions have to be made from what the starting lineup should be, to who gets pinch-hit for, to when someone gets pulled for a defensive replacement and so on. And the person who will make these decisions is a manager whose worst tool is in-game management. Aaron Boone will be counted on to make countless logical, smart, intelligent moves throughout each game that will all need to have positive outcomes.
8. That’s what worries me most about the Yankees in this series: Boone’s brain. Boone will have his hands all over this series in a way he has never had to before. The front office did a good job Boone-proofing the pitching staff by giving him the best rotation and minimizing his in-game input on pitching decisions. Ideally, the formula would be starter to David Bednar, but when it’s not, he has two very good setup men and a pair of starters who would be No. 1 and No. 2 starters on a lot of major-league teams. But when it comes to the lineup, it won’t be so easy. Boone will have to balance going for offense while not sacrificing defense. He will have to use bench bats at the most opportune times and avoid his habit of creating lengthy left-handed lanes for the Red Sox to expose.
It’s unlikely the Yankees lose the Wild Card Series because their starting pitching gets lit up. It’s unlikely they lose because their bullpen implodes. It’s possible they lose because they don’t hit enough — a staple of the Boone era in the playoffs. But if they lose, it’s most likely because their manager fails to put his players in the best possible position to succeed. The Boone Yankees are 25-27 in the postseason. His Yankees have never won a series of 5 or 7 games against a non-AL Central team. A lot of it is because of the offense’s annual disappearing act, but Boone hasn’t done anything to elevate the chances of his previous seven postseason teams. If anything, he has hindered their chances of winning.
9. I like to say the Yankees need to outhit their own manager to win games to prevent him from having an impact on close games. That’s not possible in the playoffs, where games are low-scoring and close. Every decision Boone makes from the moment he starts to fill out his lineup card until the final out of each postseason game is crucial, and he has been incapable of handling the pressure that comes with making many consecutive correct decisions, which is what it takes to win in October. And now he will play his biggest role and have his biggest impact of his eight postseasons.
Even with Boone being asked to play the biggest role in the postseason in his managerial career, I believe the Yankees will win. Sure, if they had a healthy Judge and Stanton, it would make it a lot easier, but even without them, they are better than a Red Sox offense that makes the 2026 Yankees offense look like the 2009 Yankees. And for those who watched this offense every day for the last six months, you know how frustrating it is. The Red Sox haven’t scored more than four runs in a game since September 12.
10. I want nothing more than for the Yankees to win and for Boone to win. I don’t want to sit through another end-of-the-season press conference with him telling everyone how close the team is and how sweet it’s going to be once they do win it all. “The top of the mountain” as he likes to say. Just win for the first time in his nine-year tenure and the first time in 17 years for the franchise, so I can stop dreaming about the day he’s no longer employed by the team.
I’m nervous. How can you not be if you’re a Yankees fan? I expect the Yankees to win this series because I don’t want to envision this series ending any other way. At the end of today, the Yankees will either be playing for their season tomorrow or playing tomorrow to play on Saturday. It better be the latter because I can’t handle the former again.


































































































