1. This is the best I have felt about the Yankees in 2026. Coming off the two-game destruction of the entire Red Sox’ organization, the Yankees are flying high with the ALDS set to begin, and I’m flying equally as high. Who needs alcohol or drugs when your favorite baseball team beats the absolute shit out of your least favorite baseball team?
But when Drew Rasmussen throws the first pitch of the ALDS to Ben Rice on Saturday night at Tropicana Field, I will immediately be grounded. I’m already on my way back down like the hysterical Uncle Albert floating to the floor in Mary Poppins. Because while basking in the blowout of the Red Sox and the misery-fueled aftermath for their fans, I recognize the Rays are not the Red Sox.
2. The Rays don’t boast a punchless lineup or a manager that makes me appreciate Aaron Boone. They got to sit at home this week and watch the Yankees put their season on the line and force their best two starters to make an extra start for a reason. The Rays had the best record in the American League for a reason. The Rays earned their bye to the ALDS and home-field advantage in the AL playoffs for as long as they are alive in the playoffs. They held off the Yankees from June 28 through Game 162. Each time the Yankees made a play to overtake them, the Rays answered with lengthy winning streaks.
3. Cam Schlittler against the Red Sox is what the Rays’ Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen has been against the Yankees in his career. This is Rasmussen’s career line against the Yankees: 59.2 IP, 38 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 13 BB, 70 K, 3 HR, 1.81 ERA, 0.855 WHIP. He has held the Yankees to a .180/.228/.246 slash line in his career.
The good news is the Yankees did beat Rasmussen up at the Trop (where Game 1 will be played) on July 9: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR.
The bad news is that in his other three starts against the Yankees this season, Rasmussen pitched to this line: 19.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 24 K.
Rasmussen blanked the Yankees for six innings (and allowed one baserunner) in Tampa in April. He shut them out for seven innings in the Bronx in May. He got lit up by them at the Trop in July and then one-hit them for 6 2/3 innings (with 11 strikeouts) in September. He’s the single-worst possible pitcher for the Yankees to face in the league and they will have to face him in Game 1 and then again in Game 4 (if there is a Game 4).
4. Here are the Yankees’ individual numbers against Rasmussen:
Ben Rice: 1-for-16, HR, 7 K
Cody Bellinger: 4-for-17, 2 BB, 2 K
Luis Garcia: 0-for-6, K
Spencer Jones: 0-for-3, 2 K
George Lombard Jr.: 0-for-2, K
Jazz Chisholm: 2-for-14, 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
Trent Grisham: 6-for-16, HR, 4 K
Austin Wells: 1-for-8, HR, BB, K
Ryan McMahon: 1-for-10, 2B, BB, 7 K
Aaron Judge: 2-for-16, 2 BB, 8 K
Anthony Volpe: 0-for-11, BB, 7 K
Paul Goldschmidt: 2-for-9, 2 BB, 4 K
Jose Caballero: 1-for-6, 2 K
Giancarlo Stanton: 2-for-4
Heliot Ramos: 1-for-3, 2B, K
Amed Rosario: 0-for-2
Ali Sanchez: Has never faced Rasmussen
Outside of Grisham, it’s bad pretty much all around. That doesn’t mean he’s unhittable. Entering Game 2 of the 2017 ALDS and facing Corey Kluber, the Yankees’ roster was a collective 23-for-148 with eight walks, 44 strikeouts and a .155/.204/.250 slash line against Kluber for their careers. They chased him in the third inning in that game (2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR) and then chased him in the fourth inning five days later (3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 2 HR) to win the series. No, I don’t feel good about the Yankees having to face Rasmussen on Saturday and possibly twice within the next week, but it doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t beat him.
5. The postseason is different. In Rasmussen’s only postseason start (as a Ray back in 2021), he was pulled before recording an out in the third inning at Fenway Park. He faced 11 batters and six of them reached as he lasted only 33 pitches. Five years is an eternity in baseball and Rasmussen is now a seasoned veteran and an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He was very good back then too (2.44 ERA in 10 starts and 20 games with the Rays that year), but he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball now.
Because Schlittler likely won’t pitch in the games Rasmussen starts (unless the Rays hold him back for Game 5), Rasmussen’s starts represent the only time the time(s) the Rays will have the starting pitching advantage in the series. If the Yankees win when Rasmussen starts, it will be nearly impossible for the Rays to win the series because it will mean having to win all of Schlittler’s starts. If the Yankees win Game 1, the path to a series win for the Rays becomes incredibly difficult to envision.
Unless the Yankees are going to blitz Rasmussen on Saturday like they did in July (and that’s impossible to expect), the way to beat him is the plan the Red Sox’ unsuccessfully attempted against Schlittler in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series: keep it close until he’s out of the game.
Rasmussen averaged just under six innings in his 30 starts this season, but he never pitched more than seven innings. His season-high for pitches was 114, which he threw in his final start of the season in the division-clinching game at Yankee Stadium on September 22. He will start Game 1 of the ALDS on 10 days’ rest. It’s possible there’s some rust initially after having not pitched in a third of a month, or it’s possible he’s so rested that he comes out dotting the corners and racking up strikeouts.
6. However Rasmussen comes out (whether rusty or dominant), Gerrit Cole needs to match him. That’s a lot to ask, considering Cole is pitching as poorly as he ever has a Yankee. The only other time Cole looked this bad was in the final month of 2021. That month-long slog foreshadowed his 2021 one-game playoff performance at Fenway Park, in which he lost the game after four batters. If Cole pitches on Saturday like he did in September, the Yankees will be down 1-0 in the series.
Thanks to the day off between Games 1 and 2 and with Schlittler going in Game 2, Cole doesn’t need to give the Yankees length. If he empties the tank and only gives the Yankees five spectacular innings (or even four), he will have done his job. The Yankees’ bullpen is well-rested. It had one high-leverage plate appearance in the Wild Card Series and Paul Blackburn induced a double play in it. The bullpen is so rested that Aaron Boone had to use his high-end relievers in a Game 2 blowout just to get them work in. The bullpen can cover as many innings as needed. They just can’t help if a game is ruined early.
7. And that’s what I’m most worried about with Cole: ruining the game early. Allowing a crooked number in the first or second inning can’t happen. The Yankees can’t be playing from behind by multiple runs against this Rays team, especially in a Rasmussen start. Cole doesn’t have to be great for long. He just needs to be great for as long as he’s in the game. I don’t expect him to have the kind of start Schlittler or Fried had against the Red Sox because I don’t expect much from this version of Cole or postseason Cole. I recognize his overall postseason career numbers are strong, but as a Yankee, when there have been fans in the stands or the opposition hasn’t been an AL Central team, he hasn’t been very good.
8. The games at the Trop won’t feel like road games because the crowd will be mostly Yankees fans. The Rays are opening the upper deck for the series due to ticket demand and that demand is coming from Yankees fans. It’s going to sound like Yankee Stadium inside the Trop on Saturday and Monday (and possibly next Saturday too). But the turf, the oddities of the field and roof and everything that comes with the 36-year-old dome will favor the Rays.
9. If the Yankees play clean baseball, they will win the series. They could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series. I believe that many more things have to go right for the Rays to win three games than need to go right for the Yankees to win three games. The Rays are going to get good-to-great starting pitching and superb managing and will play exceptional defense. But they have to win the Rasmussen starts and win one of the non-Rasmussen starts and get production from their Big 3 at the top of the order and get shutdown performances from their bullpen. (The Red Sox went in to the Wild Card Series with the No. 1 bullpen in the majors in 2026 and the Yankees scored 15 runs against it in 6 2/3 innings. The Rays had the 14th-best bullpen in the majors this season.)
10. The Yankees own the better rotation, the better lineup, the better bullpen and more power (they finished second in the majors in home runs by three without Judge and Stanton, while the Rays finished 22nd). The Rays have the edge in defense, manager and home-field advantage in terms of the actual field and not the crowd. Because of the slop in the AL Central side of the AL bracket, whichever team wins this series is not only going to the ALCS, but to the World Series. That team should be the Yankees, and if they can win Game 1 on Saturday, it will be the Yankees.


































































































