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Yankees Thoughts: Disappointment in Detroit

The Yankees lost to the Tigers 5-3 for their third straight loss and fourth in five games. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Before Monday’s series opener in Detroit, I wrote that I didn’t think the annual June Swoon under Aaron Boone had arrived:

The last four days, during which the Yankees went 1-3 against the White Sox and Reds and scored nine runs total, have made some Yankees fans feel like the inevitable June Swoon under Aaron Boone has arrived. I don’t think that’s the case. Am I scared of the Swoon coming at some point? Of course I am. How could you not be? But do I think these past four games are an indication of it? No, not yet. The Yankees still had a .500 homestand (3-3) and a winning road trip (5-1) before that. But if this is the Swoon, we will soon find out.

Well, we’re getting closer to this being the Swoon. Gerrit Cole and the defense were awful, the offense wasn’t much better and the Yankees lost to the Tigers 5-3 on Monday. It was the Yankees’ third straight loss and fourth in five games.

2. Thankfully, the Rays haven’t come out of their slump and the Yankees’ poor play of late hasn’t hurt them in the standings. It’s unfortunate the only other good team in the American League plays in the same division as the Yankees and if they were in any other AL division they would be sitting with a comfortable lead.

The Yankees are going to the playoffs. They have a greater than 99 percent chance of reaching the postseason. If the less than 1 percent chance of them not reaching the postseason happens then nearly everyone in the organization should be fired given how much of a lead they have on a postseason spot and how bad the AL is. Since they are going to the postseason, I analyze the team each game based on how their recent performance could affect their postseason play. Monday’s result was worrisome, as was Sunday’s.

3. These last two games were worrisome because the Yankees were shut down by Chase Burns and Framber Valdez, and those are the types of starters the Yankees will see every game in October. The last two days served as a reminder of how this team performs against elite starting pitching: a lot of strikeouts, a lot of weak contact and a lot of empty at-bats. Burns held the Yankees to a Ben Rice solo home run and Valdez held them to an Ali Sanchez RBI double, while posting a season-high eight strikeouts.

4. One could point to the fact that the Yankees are without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham, but they could be without them in October, or they could be without other bats then. It’s very unlikely the Yankees have their best possible everyday players available come October. And even if those three are healthy, we have seen what Judge does (or doesn’t do) in the playoffs for a decade (outside of four games last year) and we all watched Grisham do his best postseason Nick Swisher impression last fall.

5. The Yankees’ three runs came on Monday from the Sanchez second-inning RBI double (before Sanchez left the game following a hit by pitch) and an Amed Rosario seventh-inning, two-run home run. Rice went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, Paul Goldschmidt went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles and a pair of strikeouts, Cody Bellinger went 0-for-3 with a walk, Anthony Volpe went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles, Jazz Chisholm went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts, Jasson Dominguez went 0-for-4 with a strikeout, Jose Caballero went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout and Austin Wells went hitless in his one at-bat. The Yankees went 7-for-34 with two walks and 12 strikeouts.

6. I’m not sure what Cole’s game plan was for the AL’s fourth-worst offense, but throwing fastballs down the middle couldn’t have been it.

“They took advantage of some pitches that probably leaked into the heart of the plate on him today,” Aaron Boone said.

“Probably?” No, that’s exactly what happened. The Tigers scored five runs and put 10 runners on in 4 1/3 innings against Cole.

7. The defense didn’t do Cole any favors as the Yankees committed catcher’s interference for the second straight day and Caballero picked up another error in the outfield. Caballero could make an error every game he plays in the outfield and I wouldn’t be upset. He could make multiple errors every game in the outfield and I wouldn’t be upset. BECAUSE HE’S NOT AN OUTFIELDER. Just like Dominguez isn’t a right fielder. But no team likes to play players out of position like the Yankees.

8. Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough combined for 3 2/3 scoreless innings of relief. Both looked very good (it may have been the best Blackburn has ever looked as a Yankee), which shows how bad the Tigers’ offense is for allowing those two to shut them down and how bad Cole was to let the Tigers light him up.

9. In this stretch of 10 games in 10 days against very good starting pitching, the Yankees’ offense failed their first test. They were shut down by Valdez and couldn’t overcome Cole’s inefficiencies against the Tigers’ bullpen. It won’t get any easier on Tuesday with Casey Mize going for the Tigers. Mize has a 2.58 ERA in 10 starts and has pitched well in four career starts against the Yankees (3.63 ERA).

10. Carlos Rodon goes for the Yankees, and as it is with every Rodon start, I have no expectations. It wouldn’t surprise me if he throws six scoreless innings and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets blasted like Cole did. Rodon received 18 runs of support over his last two starts and with Mize going, the Yankees’ offense outhitting a bad Rodon start is unlikely. Rodon will likely need to be very good to end the Yankees’ three-game losing streak, or the June Swoon may very well be here.

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Yankees Thoughts: No June Swoon … Yet

The Yankees dropped a home series to the Reds, but are still having a good June, so far. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The lack of Thoughts over the last two weeks has been due to moving. You forget how much moving sucks until you do it, and when you have three kids, moving is about as fun as watching Camilo Doval pitch in a high-leverage situation or watching Jazz Chisholm bat with runners in scoring position.

Since the last Thoughts, the Yankees swept the Guardians (very good), took two of three from the Blue Jays in Toronto (great), took two of three from the White Sox (good) and then lost two of three to the Reds (not good). The Yankees are now 10-7 since Aaron Judge went on the injured list, which is much better than I expected, and they hold a one-game lead in the loss column over the Rays in the division.

2. The last four days, during which the Yankees went 1-3 against the White Sox and Reds and scored nine runs total, have made some Yankees fans feel like the inevitable June Swoon under Aaron Boone has arrived. I don’t think that’s the case. Am I scared of the Swoon coming at some point? Of course I am. How could you not be? But do I think these past four games are an indication of it? No, not yet. The Yankees still had a .500 homestand (3-3) and a winning road trip (5-1) before that. But if this is the Swoon, we will soon find out.

3. These are the probable starting pitchers over the next 10 days until the Yankees’ next scheduled day off:

Monday: Framber Valdez
Tuesday: Casey Mize
Wednesday: Tarik Skubal
Thursday: Connelly Early
Friday: Payton Tolle
Saturday: Jake Bennett
Sunday: Sonny Gray
Monday: Tarik Skubal
Tuesday: Troy Melton (opener)
Wednesday: Keider Montero

Bennett has 20 2/3 career innings to his name, Melton is an opener and Montero is inconsistent, but the others? Not great. If the Yankees are going to avoid the June Swoon, they are going to have to do more offensively than they did over the last four days, especially with the Rays playing seven games against the Royals during these 10 days.

4. Austin Wells returned to the lineup on Sunday, immediately committed catcher’s interference in the first inning and went 0-for-2 at the plate before being lifted for a pinch hitter. The Yankees and YES continue to talk about how good Wells is defensively and at handling the pitching staff, which is a nice way to say a player is a zero at the plate. Michael Kay mentioned on Sunday how good Wells would be as a player if he could just be league average offensively. League average? He’s currently 52 percent worse than league average. Sign me up for Wells being 20 percent worse than league average at this point. Wells hasn’t been league average from an OPS+ standpoint in two years.

5. Anthony Volpe started the month 4-for-30 with a .379 OPS against the Guardians, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Then the White Sox and Reds came to the Bronx and he went off, going 8-for-18 with a 1.176 OPS. Don’t let these last two series fool you into believing Volpe figured it out. The Yankees saw some atrocious pitching at home this past week and they won’t see any of that for the next three series. As I have written numerous times, it’s going to take Volpe performing at or above league average for the entire season for me to even consider believing he has figured it out.

6. Wells talked about how good Elmer Rodriguez looked on Sunday, aside from one pitch, and Rodriguez said the same about his performance. Except you can’t be good when you last four innings and allow three earned runs, even if they all came on one pitch. That’s rarely going to be good enough to win and when Chase Burns is the opposing starter it’s never going to be good enough.

7. Where would the Yankees be without Judge if Ben Rice weren’t doing what he’s doing? Rice and Yordan Alvarez are the only two players in the majors with an OPS of at least 1.000. The AL MVP is Alvarez’s to lose with Judge out for an extended period, but Rice is right there.

8. I guess where would they also be without Paul Goldschmidt. Since the last Thoughts two weeks ago, Goldschmidt has hit .327/.346/.633 with five home runs and 13 RBIs in 12 games. It’s been an absurd season for Goldschmidt who looked as washed as washed gets from the start of May last season through the end of last season.

9. Jasson Dominguez is hitting .286/.310/.500 with four extra-base hits in seven games since returning from the injured list. A few too many strikeouts, but he will clean that up, considering he’s only had 62 plate appearances this season. Take your time healing, Trent Grisham. I’m in no hurry to watch Grisham play every day again.

10. The Yankees are in Detroit for the next three days, and again, they will see Framber Valdez, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal: the worst three Tigers starters you could possibly draw. The Tigers are a mess at 33-44, but those three starters aren’t. This series will be an important test for the Judge-less Yankees offense, considering the only elite-level starter they have seen since Judge went out was Burns and he dominated them outside of a Rice solo home run.

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Yankees Thoughts: Well-Timed Postponements

The Yankees went 1-1 against the Red Sox over the weekend. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. In the last two weeks, the Yankees have gotten two games postponed, one to late August and one to late September. The first postponement came against the Rays when they were hotter than hot. The next day, the Yankees beat them and the Rays are 3-10 since with the Yankees having cut a seven-game deficit in the loss column down to one. The second postponement came against the Red Sox with the Red Sox having the pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez against Will Warren, and the Yankees without Aaron Judge. Instead, the Yankees were able to start Cam Schlittler against Suarez, won the game and prevented a game without Judge from being played. In the moment, these postponements sucked because postponements suck. In the big picture, these two postponements were blessings.

2. Before Max Fried got hurt, it looked like Ryan Weathers had saved his rotation spot in the battle to be the fifth starter over Will Warren with Carlos Rodon returning. Then Fried went on the injured list and the battle ended with the Yankees needing both Weathers and Warren in the rotation. There’s still a chance the Yankees need both when Fried returns because someone else could get hurt or they could go to a six-man rotation, but if not, it seems like Weathers could be the one to lose his spot. Friday was Weathers’ third time allowing five earned runs in his last four starts. He gave up two home runs to the Red Sox in Friday’s 5-3 loss.

3. Brian Cashman has been trying to find a young, controllable starter through trade since he became general manager nearly three decades ago and Weathers is his latest attempt to conquer that goal. There’s a chance Weathers will work out and be what so many (Jeff Weaver, Javier Vazquez, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Jameson Taillon, etc.) weren’t, but so far he’s looked an awful lot like all of the other names that have failed to be consistent performers in the role.

4. Here is what I wrote before the weekend series:

The new expected ceiling of runs for the foreseeable future is four. Anything more than that will be a surprise and anything less than that should be expected. But as I wrote last week, the Yankees are dominant when they score four runs … the Yankees are 32-9 when they score four runs. That’s all they need to do: score four runs and have a 78 percent chance of winning.

The Yankees scored three runs on Friday and lost. Then they scored six runs on Sunday and won. Five of the six runs on Sunday came in an eighth-inning explosion against the Red Sox’ bullpen that included two home runs from Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm. A loss on Sunday would have been crushing because it would have meant wasting another Cam Schlittler performance (5.1 IP, 1 ER) and with the offense and the injured list what they are, the Yankees can’t afford to waste Schlittler starts.

5. The Yankees can’t afford to give away outs either and they are willingly doing so every time the lineup is posted and Anthony Volpe’s name is in it. On Sunday, Volpe’s weak arm led to the Red Sox’ first run when Volpe was unable to throw the ball home despite having ample time to get the runner on a bad send. It’s a play every major-league shortstop should make, and it’s a play that likely every major-league shortstop other than Volpe does make. While Volpe was letting the Red Sox tie the game at 1 , the Yankees best shortstop was standing in right field watching it unfold.

6. Volpe left the bases loaded in his second at-bat on Sunday and left the go-ahead run in scoring position in his third at-bat. He finished the weekend 1-for-7 with a walk. His OPS is down to .644 on the season. He was undeservingly recalled nearly a month ago and has done nothing to be worthy of remaining in the majors. He can’t hit, he can’t field and he can’t throw. His “hot” start has turned into a mirage just like it did last year and the year before that and the year before that. Without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and even Jasson Dominguez), the Yankees need to optimize on the margins as much as possible. They need to squeeze every last percentage point out of their win probability added on offense and defense and playing Volpe at shortstop hurts both. At this point, if you like Volpe, you don’t like the Yankees.

7. J.C. Escarra got sent down before the weekend only to be recalled because Austin Wells went on the injured list with cervical headaches. I’m guessing Wells’ recent change in catcher’s mask is related to the headaches. But if Wells has been experiencing headaches severe enough to send him to the IL, why has he continued to play? Either he didn’t say anything, which hurt him and the team, or he did say something, and the team continued to play him. I think it’s the latter. Given the way past injuries have been handled by the Yankees, it’s likely Wells said something and it was disregarded. When he went to the equipment team and asked to use the hockey goalie mask instead of the traditional catcher’s mask he has always used, didn’t they question the change? Didn’t they want to know why?

8. The headaches aren’t an excuse for Wells, but they will be used as one. He has been catching full games without issue, and he has looked as bad at the plate as he has dating back to last season. So underperformance isn’t anything new for Wells. He has one more hit, as many home runs and seven fewer RBIs than Stanton this season and Stanton hasn’t played since April 24.

9. A six-game road trip to Cleveland and Toronto will be tough. I would sign up for 3-3 right now given the Yankees’ offense and knowing that Boone is going to force idiotic decisions like Volpe at shortstop and batting sixth or seventh in at least half the games on this trip. This is how the probables will likely play out:

Monday: Will Warren vs. Gavin Williams
Tuesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Slade Cecconi
Wednesday: Carlos Rodon vs. Parker Messick
Thursday: OFF
Friday: Ryan Weathers vs. Braydon Fisher/Spencer Miles
Saturday: Cam Schlittler vs. Kevin Gausman
Sunday: Will Warren vs. Patrick Corbin

The Yankees are getting a gift by avoiding Trey Yesavage.

10. The Yankees will open the road trip against Williams, who they hit pretty well last week in the Bronx with three runs in 5 1/3 innings off him. (It didn’t matter because Cole was throwing batting practice.) Warren has only made one career start against the Guardians (last April), so that should play into the Yankees’ favor at least the first time through the order. I expect Warren to pitch well, but I have no expectations for the offense and won’t until Judge returns (and even then I have tempered expectations with the ‘Run It Back’ offense). But the offensive goal remains the same: Score four runs and (likely) win.

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Yankees Thoughts: ‘Expected to Return’

The Yankees beat the Guardians 2-1, but got bad news on Aaron Judge. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees beat a team with a winning record! Their 2-1 win over the Guardians on Thursday marked their fourth win of the season against teams better than .500 (though that stat is somewhat misleading since they lost a series to the Athletics in April when the A’s were over .500). The Yankees are the only team in the majors with fewer than eight wins against winning teams.

2. It wasn’t easy. The Yankees produced only five hits (one for extra bases) and two walks in the game. Slade Cecconi started for the Guardians with the third-worst ERA in the American League, and despite Michael Kay and Paul O’Neill spending multiple innings talking about how bad Cecconi has been and how he can’t strike anyone out, Cecconi threw six innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts. Unfortunately, that’s going to be life for the Yankees’ offense without Aaron Judge.

3. Judge is likely to be out for more than two months with a stress fracture in his ribs that the Yankees needed multiple days to diagnose. That’s not anything new for the Yankees when it comes to diagnosing an injury for Judge. Judge punctured a lung in September 2019 and it wasn’t diagnosed properly until spring training in 2020. The Yankees’ offense has gone as Judge has gone for the last decade and now it’s hard to see it going anywhere often without him.

4. The idea Judge is “expected to return this season” inspires very little confidence. The Yankees are batting close to 1.000 in being wrong on injury diagnoses and injury timelines during the Aaron Boone era. It’s why Boone freaked out on reporters asking him about what the latest specialist Judge is expected to see specializes in. It was a bad look for Boone made worse when he had to check with the team’s public relations head, only for the public relations head to say he didn’t know and would have to look into it. Not knowing what the specialist specializes in who your best player — whom you still owe more than $200 million — is going to visit isn’t a big deal. Nothing to see here. Maybe they can start ramping Judge up in a couple of months without re-imaging him like they did Luis Severino in 2019, only to eventually say in hindsight they should have re-imaged Severino before starting his throwing program.

5. The last time Judge missed an extended period of time was during 2023. Judge got hurt at Dodger Stadium on June 3, wasn’t in the lineup the next day and didn’t play again until July 28. The Yankees went 19-23 in his absence. He went on the injured list on pace to challenge his record-setting home run total from the year before. When he came back, his OPS dropped by 113 points and the Yankees went 27-30 and missed the playoffs.

6. These Yankees aren’t going to miss the playoffs, but they may not win the division without Judge for so long. The Yankees’ roster is built under the assumption that Judge won’t just be a superstar, but an otherworldly, once-in-a-generation player. When he’s anything other than the best hitter on the planet, the Yankees are just another team. It’s not a coincidence the Yankees are 11-12 since May 6 and that during that time Judge has a .677 OPS. He’s the single-most important player on the roster.

7. The Yankees as a whole are better equipped to handle life without Judge than they were in the past. They have the best rotation even without Max Fried. That alone is enough to prevent lengthy losing streaks and keep them in nearly every game. But the way they will have to win now will look a lot like it did on Thursday when they eked out two runs and needed a strong starting effort and a shutdown relief effort. The new expected ceiling of runs for the foreseeable future is four. Anything more than that will be a surprise and anything less than that should be expected. But as I wrote last week, the Yankees are dominant when they score four runs. It didn’t show against Cleveland because Cam Schlittler had the worst start of his career and Gerrit Cole was serving up batting practice, but the Yankees are 32-9 when they score four runs. That’s all they need to do: score four runs and have a 78 percent chance of winning.

8. If you thought the Yankees’ lineup was inconsistent and frustratingly bad before, well, you’re about to see a whole other level of it. The lineup went from three hitters to now two (Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger). There’s possibly a third in Paul Goldschmidt until the clock strikes midnight on his turn-back-the-clock production. Efforts like the one Cecconi had on Thursday are going become the norm. A lineup made up of two-thirds of batters who would do anything to have and maintain league-average metrics is going to be less fun to watch than it has been. The Yankees desperately need Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Dominguez to return and they needed them back yesterday.

9. Ryan Weathers will get his first taste of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry on Friday night. Weathers has only faced three current Red Sox before, and they have all homered off of him. Weathers has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts, and that’s not going to cut it ever, let alone without Judge. Weathers needs to be the pitcher who’s capable of dominating like he did two weeks ago against the Rays or something close to that.

10. Former Yankee Sonny Gray goes for the Red Sox. Gray deserves to be booed endlessly. Not for his performance with the Yankees necessarily (which was good in 2017 before being putrid in 2018), but because of how he would assess his horrible performances with the team, always citing “good stuff” no matter how atrocious he was, and for the way he talked about his time with the Yankees this past winter, saying he never wanted to be traded there in 2017, even though he wrote a piece in The Players’ Tribune following the trade stating the opposite. I’m expecting Gray to pitch extremely well on Friday because that’s what ex-Yankees do against their former team. Weathers needs to be just as good, if not better, for the depleted offense.

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Yankees Thoughts: Losses On and Off the Field

The Yankees lost Aaron Judge to an injury and then lost to the Guardians 9-4. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Aaron Judge sat out with a bone bruise, Cam Schlittler had his worst start in the majors and the Yankees lost again to a team above .500. The Yankees have had some bad losses this season (mostly due to the bullpen), and while Tuesday’s loss wasn’t necessarily a “bad loss,” it was just a bad day.

2. The bad day started when the lineup was posted and Judge’s name wasn’t in it for the first time in 2026. A day off? Odd, considering the Yankees had Monday off. No, it wasn’t just a day off. Apparently, Judge has been dealing with discomfort for some time and it reached the point where he couldn’t play. At least we know why he has a .649 OPS since May 7. The injury seems to be a bone bruise in Judge’s rib cage that he’s feeling in his right shoulder? The last time Judge had a weird injury like this, it was an undiagnosed punctured lung that would have kept him out for the start of the 2020 season, if that season had started on time. I have zero faith that the Yankees will properly diagnose and treat Judge’s injury. The Yankees’ mismanagement of injuries during the Aaron Boone era has been a disgrace, dating back to 2018. Look no further than the Yankees telling us Giancarlo Stanton would avoid an injured list stint the day after hurting his calf in Houston on April 24. It’s June 3 and he hasn’t played since.

3. The bad day continued with Schlittler allowing five earned runs for the first time in 29 major-league starts (postseason included). He allowed his third home run of the season and couldn’t make it through five innings for the first time since last September. Oh well. If anyone deserves a pass for a bad game, it’s Schlittler.

4. The offense wasn’t very good, but that’s no surprise. The 13-run outburst on Sunday made everyone forget or not notice that the team sent the minimum amount of hitters to the plate in the other eight innings. On Tuesday, Paul Goldschmidt — batting second — drove in all four Yankees runs. Goldschmidt went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run. The rest of the lineup went 5-for-31 with no extra-base hits. The Yankees’ offense goes as Judge goes. That has been the case for a long time, and without Judge in the lineup, the offense went nowhere other than to another loss to a team with a winning record. Luckily, for the Yankees, there are only four other teams in the American League with winning records.

5. It does look like the Yankees will eventually get some internal bullpen help to begin to fix the weakest part of the team. Carlos Lagrange will being working out of the bullpen in Triple-A with the plan to join the Yankees’ bullpen and bolster a relief staff that has minimal trustworthy options and several DFA candidates.

6. The “hot” start Anthony Volpe had that allowed him to stay in the majors upon Jose Caballero’s return appears to be the fourth straight mirage to begin the season for him. Volpe went 0-for-4 on Tuesday and his OPS is down to .719. Soon enough he will be back to the mid-600s where he has always been.

7. Austin Wells would give up half of his salary to be in the mid-600s. Yet another 0-for-4 on Tuesday from Wells has his slash line down to .173/.288/.266. He remains at one double (hit on April 7) and seven RBIs (he has two since the end of April) on the season.

8. Jazz Chisholm went on the Tonight Show on Monday and said the Yankees were going to win the World Series. He said the same thing in 2024 and 2025 and then did everything he could in the playoffs to not help them win the World Series. The Guardians’ broadcast team wondering out loud how someone hitting .239 could get on the Tonight Show was pretty funny. I wish I had thought of that.

9. The answer to the Yankees’ shortstop problem may be getting closer to the majors. After going 7-for-55 (.127) with no extra-base hits in his first 15 Triple-A games, George Lombard Jr. is 20-for-55 (.364) with seven extra-base hits in his last 14 games. He’s starting to figure out the top minor-league level and once he does that, the Yankees may have the shortstop of the future they thought they were getting at the start of 2023.

10. Gerrit Cole will make his third start of the season on Wednesday. If he’s as good as he was in his first two, the Yankees will get back in the win column and pick up a win against a team with a winning record. The Guardians will send their best starter to the mound in Gavin Williams, who leads the league in wins (8) and innings pitched (76.1). The Yankees can’t afford to lose both Schlittler and Cole starts in a series.

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