Blogs – Page 122 – Keefe To The City

Mar 25, 2019

2019 MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2019 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

Baseball is three days away! Three days! Sure, we got two “regular-season games” with the A’s and Mariners that I sadly woke up to watch last week, but those didn’t feel like real games, and the A’s certainly did pitch like they were real games. Real baseball begins on Thursday when the entire league plays.

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2019 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

(Last season’s win total in parentheses)

OVERS

NEW YORK YANKEES, 96.5 (100)
On paper, the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Unfortunately, “on paper” doesn’t win the World Series and starting the season with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Dellin Betances and Aaron Hicks all unavailable, and Didi Gregorius out until at least midseason isn’t exactly helpful to exceeding a win total of 96.5. Thankfully, the majority of Major League Baseball isn’t trying to win and getting back near 100 wins won’t be that hard.

Outside of the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros and maybe two other American League teams, the AL is more top heavy in 2019 than it was in 2018 when six teams lost 89 games or more. You can pencil in the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and Astros for the playoffs right now, and whichever team is “lucky” enough to clinch the second wild card will have to play at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park for the one-game playoff. The AL has become predictable.

Are the Yankees going to go on the kind of historical run they want on from the end of April until the end of the June? No. But I also don’t see them being a barely-above-.500 team from the end of June on the way they were last season. Thanks to their incredibly easy schedule to open the first three-plus weeks of the season, for once, the Yankees can get off to a good start and separate themselves from the .500 mark for good as early as the opening series.

CHICAGO CUBS, 88 (95)
There is this idea the Cubs are trending in the wrong direction and won’t be good for some reason in 2019. Listen, I don’t like the Cubs and would like nothing more than for them to be a disaster this season, but it’s just not realistic. The Brewers will once again be right there contending for the NL Central and the Cardinals and Reds made vast improvements, but it’s still the Cubs’ division to lose, just like it was last year until … they lost it.

The Cubs still have arguably the deepest lineup in the NL with three potential MVP-type candidates in it and when Jose Quintana is your No. 5 starter, you have more than enough starting pitching. The Cubs let the entire offseason pass them by without doing anything to enhance their team, but even so, it’s still a contending roster, and it’s not a seven-less-wins-than-last-season roster.

HOUSTON ASTROS, 96.5 (103)
Another AL power, another over. The Astros won 103 games last year and 101 games the year before. Despite Dallas Keuchel in his prime no longer being in their rotation (at least for now), I think the Astros might actually be better this season than they were the last two. They’re certainly not 6.5 wins worse.

The Astros’ biggest problem (which clearly wasn’t much of a problem after winning the World Series in 2017 and reaching the ALCS in 2018) was that their lineup wasn’t long. The addition of Michael Brantley — a player I wanted the Yankees to sign instead of Brett Gardner — gives them that length as they can now stack George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Brantley in some order one through five. That’s a very scary one through five.

The rotation is weaker than season’s past with Keuchel and Charlie Morton essentially being replaced by Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh, but that’s not a bad backend of the rotation, and the Astros have proven the last two years they aren’t scared to go out and add payroll or make a big move at the deadline.

I would be shocked if the World Series was won by a team other than the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox. One of the three is getting there, it’s just a matter of not having a bad series against whatever mediocrity comes out of the National League.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS, 83.5 (80)
It’s hard to find overs to pick and believe in when nearly all of baseball seems to be trying not to win, or at least not investing in winning. The Angels are my pick for the second wild card and while I don’t trust them, I think they will be at least a .500 team in 2019. I could see them being a 90-win team this season, which is enough to eclipse their number.

The Angels have a sneaky good lineup led by the $430 million man and then a rotation full of No. 3 and No. 4 starters (Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill) and a bullpen of inconsistent relievers. It’s not a championship-constructed roster, but it’s good enough to be two games over .500.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, 89.5 (80)
I hate this pick, I really do. I don’t want the Phillies to do well, but unfortunately, one team in the NL East is going to win 90 games and I think the Phillies have the best chance to do it. My Phillies pick is more of a process of elimination pick.

The Mets? I’m not about to ever back the Mets to meet or exceed expectations even if their number is four wins lower (85.5). The Nationals? They had trouble scoring runs and winning games with the face of their franchise. I’m not sure how an 82-win team gets an 88.5 number when their biggest addition was one-year-wonder Patrick Corbin. The Braves? They are the biggest threat to the Phillies in the division, especially since they won 90 games last season, but a lot has changed in the NL East since last season.

UNDERS

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, 58.5 (47)
The Orioles won 47 games last season. 47! And that was with a half season of Manny Machado playing at an MVP level. This season, they won’t have Machado at all and will have the worst roster top to bottom in the league, much worse than last season’s roster, which won 47 games. If this number were at least year’s 47 it would be too high. At 58.5 it’s outrageous.

I would write more, but nothing more needs to be said about a team potentially set up to be the worst team in the history of Major League Baseball.

BOSTON RED SOX, 94.5 (108)
That’s right. I’m putting the Red Sox here. The Red Sox aren’t winning 108 games again. That’s a guarantee. Or unless Chris Sale’s shoulder isn’t right or David Price reverts back to crappy David Price or Nathan Eovaldi turns into the Nathan Eovaldi Yankees fans know.

Outside of a rotation that’s banking on Chris Sale’s shoulder to continue to hold up, David Price to avoid falling off again, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez to be consistent and Nathan Eovaldi to not turn back into the Nathan Eovaldi that caused every team until the Red Sox to give up on him, the Red Sox’ biggest question is their bullpen. Their ownership basically said to the fan base “We won the World Series, we’re reeling in the spending” as they chose not to bring back Craig Kimbrel and are going with a bullpen so shaky that their starting pitching became their non-closing relief options in the playoffs. That can work over the course of a month in the postseason, however, it’s a recipe for disaster over the course of six months in the regular season.

But like I said in the write-up about the Yankees, the AL is about four teams and then everyone else, and the Red Sox get to play the same schedule as the Yankees and will once again flirt with a high win total. I just don’t think they’ll get there.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX, 74 (62)
I feel the least confident about this pick out of all the unders I selected, only because the White Sox are headed in the right direction and nearly there, while the other clubs have a ways to go. Signing Manny Machado would have helped greatly, as he stood them up, showing he could care less if his family members and friends in Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay are now on the team. The reason I’m picking the White Sox as they inch closer and closer to baseball relevancy is that for them to increase their win total by 12 from last season, a lot has to happen. A lot.

The White Sox’ issue is plate discipline as they have a hard time getting on base. Here is their list of starting players in 2019 and their 2018 on-base percentages:

C: Wellington Castillo, .304
1B: Jose Abreu, .325
2B: Yolmer Sanchez, .306
3B: Yoan Moncada, .315
SS: Tim Anderson, .281
LF: Daniel Palka, .294
CF: Adam Engel, .279
RF: Jon Jay (not on White Sox last season), .330
DH: Yonder Alonso (not on White Sox last season), .317

When your best on-base guy is Jay, that’s a big problem. When your best on-base guy only gets on at a .330 clip, that’s a bigger problem.

Maybe guys like Anderson and Engel and Moncada will break out and prove their viable everyday players in the majors. And maybe Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez will stay healthy and continue in the right direction and maybe Lucas Giolito will finally live up to his former No. 1 prospect status. That’s a lot that has to happen, and if it doesn’t happen before the trade deadline, Abreu will be gone as an impending free agent, and reaching 74 wins will become even harder.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS, 69.5 (58)
The Royals did nothing to improve in the offseason, they actually got worse, and yet, their number is 11 wins higher this season. Everything about them says “Last place in the AL Central” and that was with Salvador Perez and now Perez is out for the season, needing Tommy John surgery.

Royals fans can’t be too upset though. They reached the World Series in back-to-back seasons, winning it in 2015 and after 30 years of being awful, this October will only have been four since they destroyed the Mets. I think Royals fans are OK with waiting at least another decade before they start to complain about the state of their team.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS, 74.5 (73)
The Blue Jays are now in complete rebuild mode after having missed out on their championship window. First, they let Jose Bautista leave as a free agent and then Edwin Encarnacion and then Josh Donaldson and then they released Troy Tulowitzki, essentially now paying him to play for the Yankees. The heart of their order from their 2015 and 2016 ALCS appearances is gone and any valuable assets they have left between now and the trade deadline this season will be gone too.

The Blue Jays are gong to be bad in 2019. After the trade deadline, they are going to be very, very bad.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Monday Mail

Mar 25, 2019

Monday Mail: March 25, 2019

Is Aaron Hicks’ contract a bargain? Will Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius receive extensions? Should the Yankees have signed Manny Machado or Bryce Harper? This week’s Monday Mail.

We made it! We made it through the 59-day winter gauntlet that makes up January and February and then the long six-week-or-so grind that is spring training. We are in the week with actual baseball and just three days away from first pitch.

This week’s questions are Yankees heavy with the hype and anticipation of the second straight season with championship expectations. The 2019 Yankees are set up to be the best Yankees team since their last World Series title and appearance 10 years ago, and we are very close to them finally playing.

Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter to be included in the next Monday Mail.

Why would you want Manny Machado on the Yankees? I’m thanking God he didn’t sign with them. – Max
I have written too much about a player who isn’t even a Yankee (like here and here and here), so let’s break this down in the simplest way possible:

1. Manny Machado is 26 years old (younger than Aaron Judge), and historically speaking, he most likely hasn’t even entered his prime yet.

2. He plays BOTH shortstop and third base and is a two-time Gold Glove winner at third.

3. He’s a career .282/.335/.487 hitter, who has averaged 31 home runs and 90 RBIs per season.

4. He’s coming off career highs in games played (162), home runs (37), RBIs (107), batting average (.297), on-base percentage (.367), slugging percentage (.538) and OPS (.905).

5. Outside of a knee injury in 2014, he has played in 156, 162, 157, 156 and 162 games in his full Major League seasons.

6. All he would have cost is money. MONEY. The thing the Yankees used to use to their advantage to create the best team possible. No prospects, no young, cheap players. Just MONEY.

7. On top of all this, he has played 860 of his 926 career regular-season games in the AL East, knows the pitchers and has made it clear he absolutely hates the Red Sox.

I’m not sure how anyone could look at those facts and not want Manny Machado on the Yankees. Because he made the comment about not running hard on every routine ground ball last season? I’m OK with someone not sprinting it down the line on a guaranteed out when they are playing Gold Glove defense and hitting 37 home runs with a .905 OPS.

Right now, the Yankees think Troy Tulowitzki is going to be their shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns. The same Tulowitzki who didn’t play a game in 2018, wasn’t good in 2017 and hasn’t been good for some time now. And if Tulowitzki isn’t up to it, then the middle infield will be Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu and then Tyler Wade at some point.

What happens if Miguel Andujar never improves defensively at third base or doesn’t progress the way everyone just expects him to? What happens if Didi Gregorius isn’t the same player when he returns from Tommy John surgery, or what if Gregorius leaves via free agency after this season? Then what is the Yankees’ middle infield of the future?

Still thanking God the Yankees didn’t sign Machado?

If we bench Aaron Hicks or eat the last two years of his contract, who cares? He’s a Top 10 center fielder and didn’t get overpaid. – AJ
I agree.

I have written, tweeted and said a lot of negative things about Aaron Hicks since he first became a Yankee. Was I wrong? Not completely. Hicks became a very good Major League player in 2017 and continued to be one in 2018. Prior to that though, he was the same-old first-round bust who couldn’t put it all together.

I formally apologized to Hicks in the past on Twitter and since I will now be watching him through 2025 (and possibly even 2026 if the Yankees pick up his club option that season) I think it’s time I come to accept him. Do I think investing in a 29-year-old center fielder for the next seven seasons is the best decision? No. But like AJ said, at $10 million per season, if he gets benched five, six or seven years from now, or needs to be released, it’s not a contract that will “fake hurt the Yankees. (I say “fake hurt” because no contract hurts the Yankees no matter what ownership wants you to believe.)

The biggest problem with Hicks is that he can’t stay healthy, which he is showing once again as he won’t be ready for Opening Day and probably not for more than a week into the regular season. If Hicks can give the Yankees what he did when he was actually on the field in 2017 and in 2018 then this deal will be an all-time bargain. If he can’t, well, at that number, it will still be a bargain.

I’d probably go for four years, $40 million for Dellin Betances. Didi Gregorius will probably get something around six years, $100 million. – Christopher

The Yankees finally stopped their idiotic “no extension” policy and gave both Luis Severino (four years, $40 million) and Aaron Hicks (seven years, $70 million) extensions. Next up: Dellin Betances.

There were already reports the Yankees were discussing an extension with Betances and then his shoulder issue happened, and you can’t help but feel bad for the guy. He will be a free agent at the end of the season and he has been the best reliever in all of baseball over the last five years, which includes his disastrous end to the 2017 season. Over the last five seasons, Betances has appeared in 349 games, pitching 373 1/3 innings with 607 strikeouts, a 2.22 ERA and 1.108 WHIP, allowing just 5.3 hits-per-nine innings with an astounding 14.6 strikeouts-per-nine. Absolutely ridiculous numbers. Unfortunately, the shoulder problem came up at the worst possible time, both for the 2019 Yankees bullpen and for Betances’ future earnings.

Betances has been one of, if not my favorite Yankee since Number 2 retired and as a native New Yorker and homegrown prospect who has always said and done the right things, it’s hard not to like him (unless you’re Randy Levine). As long as this shoulder problem does turn out to be a minor thing and he returns to pitch like he always has (minus the end of the 2017 season), extend him!

Didi Gregorius is a little trickier. He’ll most likely return sometime this summer and be the productive offensive and defensive player he’s always been (outside of 2015) for the Yankees. But it’s not certain. There’s a chance Gregorius isn’t the same player he was prior to Tommy John surgery and I would think the Yankees will wait to see how he performs before extending him.

It’s also not a necessity to extend Gregorius. Yes, he’s a fan favorite, outstanding defender and one of two reliable left-handed bats in the lineup. But the Yankees have Gleyber Torres for at least six more seasons and have DJ LeMahieu for this season and next. It’s not impossible to see the Yankees let Gregorius leave as a free agent if they aren’t able to extend him to a team-friendly deal and if he wants and thinks he can get more on the open market. Gregorius will be 30 for the 2020 season and if he’s looking for a five- or six-year deal, I don’t know that the Yankees will be interested in that.

Everyone knows Bryce Harper is only good for home runs. Sure, he’s a superstar, so he got paid. The Yankees are waiting on Mike Trout, if they don’t sign Trout then I think there is an issue of being cheap, especially if the Red Sox win back-to-back World Series titles. – Bill

While Bryce Harper isn’t “only good for home runs”, if he were, that’s not exactly a knock. That’s the best thing to be good for. Home runs equal runs. Runs equal wins. Wins equal playoffs. Playoffs equal chance to win championships.

Last season, Harper batted .249/.393/.496 with 34 home runs and 100 RBIs, while scoring 103 runs and walking a Major League-leading 130 times. He’s a six-time All-Star in seven seasons with an NL MVP to his name and a career .900 OPS. If there is one thing Harper is “only good for”, it’s getting on base, and that’s the most important thing a hitter can do.

The question becomes, is Harper worth a 13-year, $330 million contract? If a 25-year-old Giancarlo Stanton was worth 13 years and $325 million then you could say a 26-year-old Harper is a bargain at a $330 million. Prior to to the offseason, I thought Harper would get at least $400 million, so for him to get only $330 million is a bit shocking.

It’s concerning the Yankees have a young core of players making relatively no money between Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, and you can even throw in Aaron Hicks, and yet, they didn’t sign either 26-year-old generational star this offseason. Back in 2016, it seemed inevitable the Yankees would sign one if not two of Harper and Machado, and yet they signed neither, and that was before they hit on every top prospect of theirs. The Yankees couldn’t have asked for a better situation going into this offseason with a cheap, young core and having reset their luxury tax, and they failed to sign either of the best two position players (Harper and Machado) and the best (Patrick Corbin).

This question came in before Mike Trout signed his $430 million extension with the Angels, but if he hadn’t, if you think the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees were going to suddenly change course two years from now and sign a 29-year-old Trout when they wouldn’t sign a 26-year-old Harper or a 26-year-old Machado, well, you’re sadly mistaken.

As for the possibility of the Red Sox winning back-to-back World Series titles mattering, the Yankees failed to sign any of the Top 3 free agents after the Red Sox won 108 games, beat the Yankees for the division and then flat-out embarrassed them in the ALDS on their way to a championship.

Want to be included in the next Monday Mail? Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Mar 14, 2019

The NL MVP Is a Yankee: An Oral History of the Giancarlo Stanton Trade

Let’s go back to December 2017 for an oral history of the trade which landed the Yankees the reigning NL MVP.

Leading the 2017 ALCS 3-2, the Yankees needed a win in either Game 6 or Game 7 to advance to the World Series for the first time in eight years. Instead, the Yankees lost both games in Houston, scoring just one run over 18 innings and the team’s deepest postseason run since their last championship in 2009 ended.

The 2017 Yankees arrived ahead of schedule. After a disappointing 2016 season led to the dismissal of every tradable asset at the deadline, the team was expected to be a non-factor in the AL East and postseason picture for at least the next two seasons. But the team’s 91 regular-season wins, wild-card win, incredible comeback against the 102-win Indians in the ALDS and seven-game series against the eventual champion Astros in the ALCS changed the perception of the franchise. The so-called “rebuild” took roughly the last two months of 2016 and the Yankees were back to being the Yankees.

I had expected the window of opportunity for these Yankees to begin in 2019 and now they were providing two extra years of unexpected contention. I couldn’t be upset with the way the 2017 ended because all I could think about was 2018 and beyond. I was ecstatic about 2018 and that was with Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley and Starlin Castro set to return to the team.

Meanwhile, the new ownership group in Miami was ready to trade everyone and anyone to cut payroll and hit the reset button on the franchise. Suddenly, NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, who was coming off a 59-home run season, was available. He had reportedly given the Marlins front office a list of four teams he would waive his no-trade clause for and those four teams happened to the final four teams in the 2017 postseason: the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs.

On Dec. 11, 2017, the Yankees landed Stanton in a surprise move that sent Castro to Miami. The following day Headley was traded was traded to San Diego. The Yankees had come within one game of the World Series and had essentially just turned Castro and Headley into Giancarlo Stanton and top prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar waiting for their to turn to join the young core full time. The last time I had been this excited about the Yankees was when Mariano Rivera induced a ground ball off the bat of Shane Victorino to clinch the 2009 World Series.

Let’s go back to December 2017 for an oral history of the trade which landed the Yankees the reigning NL MVP with quotes from the prominent people involved in the actual deal.

***

Derek Jeter, Marlins CEO and minority owner/Yankees legend: This is an organization that’s been losing money for quite some time, so we have to turn it around. How we do that? It’s not clear. It’s easy to point the finger at [Giancarlo Stanton] because he makes the most money, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that that’s the move that’s going to be made.

Brian Cashman, Yankees senior vice president and general manager: I put my toe in the water down at the GM meetings. During the Ohtani sweepstakes, we needed to keep the DH spot open for the two-way player in the event that he came our way, but despite that, I did engage the Marlins a little bit in the GM meetings about a month ago.

Derek Jeter: Michael Hill has been in contact with [Stanton]. Michael has spoken with him. That’s Michael’s job. He’s the president of baseball ops, so he has spoken to him. It’s not like it’s radio silence coming from the organization. If you get into the practice of reaching out to every time there is a rumor to every player, you’d be spending 95 percent of your time on the phone trying to dispel rumors.

Michael Hill, Marlins president of baseball operations: The one thing I know, and Giancarlo has said as well, is that there was complete transparency, and if anything, overcommuncation as we went through the process with him. So he was fully aware of what was going on every step of the way. But we knew, ultimately, that it was his call. He had the no-trade and it was said to him face-to-face that ‘We understand that you have a no-trade and you if to choose to not waive it, we are prepared to have you here and you to be a Miami Marlin for the duration of your contract.’

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees outfielder: We had a meeting, yes. We spoke about the direction of the team. I wanted us to go forward and have an advance with the pitching staff. I thought our lineup was legit and we needed help with our pitchers. We needed to add rather than subtract. The way they wanted to go was subtract, so I let it be known I didn’t want to be part of another rebuild, another losing season, and that’s almost a guaranteed losing season taking away what I thought was a great lineup.

Michael Hill: But at the same time, he understood that there were changes that needed to be made. We didn’t have a deep minor-league system. We weren’t in a position to compete because we just didn’t have enough depth. Changes needed to be made and we were open and honest with him. He was open and honest that he didn’t want to be a part of it.

Giancarlo Stanton: I gave my list of teams prior to and they went to San Francisco and the Cardinals and struck deals with them.

Brian Cashman: With certain parameters needing to be met with the Marlins it didn’t seem like it was something that was viable from their perspective. They had better deals from their assessment elsewhere. I don’t know what those deals were, so that’s how it led to the Giants and the Cardinals having deals in place and then trying to convince Stanton to waive it to go those routes.

Giancarlo Stanton: I didn’t want to be part of a rebuild. I gave my list of teams prior to and they went to San Francisco and the Cardinals and struck deals with them. I was open to listening to them, but those were not my teams and those are great people they were great meetings and great organization and great culture there but it just wasn’t the fit for me.

Michael Hill: Whenever you’re making a trade when a full no-trade is involved there are going to be challenges.

Brian Cashman: I stayed engaged as of Wednesday of last week. I thought there was no chance of anything happening and actually wished the Marlins luck, Michael hill, specifically, the GM, my counterpart, and (said) ‘Let’s talk about anything else you have on your roster.’

Michael Hill: Ultimately, it happened where one of the teams where he wanted to go, on the third try, we were able to come to an agreement and get him moved.

Brian Cashman: And then he reengaged Thursday of last week about 4 in the afternoon maybe. and then we worked the rest of the evening deep into the night. him rejecting my ideas, me rejecting his until we finally settled. but it was on Thursday by him reengaging me more along the parameters that we had in place to make it fit that I was like ‘Wow this might really have a chance here.’ And that night, Thursday night, we had an agreement.

Hal Steinbrenner, Yankees managing general partner: It happened fairly quickly. I think Cash has been working on this for a week or two, but there’s been ups and downs along the way … really the last three or four days has been pretty hectic.

Michael Hill: I’m very realistic. I understand that when you have a no-trade in place that you’re at the mercy of the player and ultimately I think that was the case because we had two other potential trades in place for him that he didn’t want to go to those two places. So it was incumbent to try to give him where he wanted to go or to welcome him back. It works out where we were able to make a deal with the Yankees.

Brian Cashman: Friday we dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s, got baseball involved, Saturday the physical in Tampa.

The Yankees sent Starlin Castro and minor-league players Jose Devers and Jorge Guzman to the Marlins. The Marlins agreed to pay $30 million ($3 million per years for the 10 years) to the Yankees if Stanton doesn’t opt out of the contract after the 2020 season.

Giancarlo Stanton: This is what I’ve always wanted. This is what I’ve dreamed of. You always want to be in competitive games where they mean something and your performance means something to the team and the city. It’s going to be a fun challenge and I’m looking forward to it.

Brian Cashman: I want to be the New York Yankees again and that’s a team that you can count on competing for a world championship in the upcoming season.

Derek Jeter: This was the best move and the best deal for the organization. It gives us flexibility. We’re going to invest in building this organization the right way.

Michael Hill: The no-trade was a challenge, but it was one where thankfully we were able to work it out and we got good players back in return.

Derek Jeter: We’re not going to turn this organization around overnight. It’s going to take some time.

Brian Cashman: There’s trepidation on every decision I make. It doesn’t matter, even the ones right now we get praised at for working out and stuff. Every move I make, you always get buyer’s remorse. I think it’s a natural part of the process. What you try to do is make the right decisions you think will serve this franchise well in the present and the future and obviously the goal is to win. Ultimately, every effort we try to make is to get as close to the next championship team that we can be proud of.

Giancarlo Stanton: The city has been waiting for another World Series, another playoff run and they got close enough this year, but hopefully with my addition, we’re going to advance and be a better team.

Brian Cashman: You have to credit the Steinbrenner family for taking on the type of commitment because it is a big one and 10 years is a long time, and that’s why we’re getting $30 million on the back end of the contract offsetting the Stanton commitment as well as [the Marlins] taking $22 million on the Castro contract.

Hal Steinbrenner: I don’t think five days ago I really would have imagined this.

Giancarlo Stanton: When I signed up in Miami, I wanted things to work out. I had a good vision there, but sometimes things just spiral out of place and you have to find a new home.

***

Things didn’t work out as I thought they would in 2018. The Yankees were 61-31 on July 12, but would go just 39-31 the rest of the way. Yes, the team won 100 games, but in a season in which there were seven competitive teams in the AL, it wasn’t much of an accomplishment. The Yankees lost the division by eight games and had to settle for the wild-card game for the third time in four years before getting flat-out embarrassed by the Red Sox in the ALDS thanks to rookie manager Aaron Boone’s irresponsible managing.

As for Stanton, he was just good, not great, and that was because of what he had done in 2017 and the expectations placed on him. When I was sitting in Rogers Centre in Toronto on Opening Day and watched him hit two majestic home runs, I started making plans for the Canyon of Heroes parade for the fall. But that day ended up being one of about four of five great days for the new Yankee. He finished the season with a respectable 38 home runs and 100 RBIs and those very solid numbers only represented a decrease of 21 and 32 from the year before. His .266/.343/.509 line checked in well below his .281/.376/.631 from the previous season. No one expected Stanton to put up 59 again, but I don’t think anyone expected him to swing at every single slider thrown to him either.

There were times when I thought he might hit a ball to Connecticut and there were times when I wasn’t sure if he would ever make contact again. For a player on a new team in a new league learning new pitchers, he had a good season. But for Stanton standards it was just OK. Luckily for him, he has nine more seasons with the Yankees to change the perception of him.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Rangers

Feb 25, 2019

Mats Zuccarello Deserved Better from Rangers

The former Rangers fan favorite deserved better than to watch the best years of the team’s core be wasted by jettisoning out the wrong players, and most egregiously, extending the wrong defensemen.

From behind the Stars’ net, Jason Dickinson picked up a loose puck and fired it around the boards. Waiting on the boards, there he was, in victory green, white and black, wearing his number 36 to stop and control the breakout pass from his new teammate. He turned around and made a quick move to avoid being checked by the Blackhawks’ Marcus Kruger and hit a streaking Radek Faksa in the middle of the ice. The pass created a breakaway for Faksa, which led a 1-0 Stars lead.

The play happened so quickly that if you didn’t know Mats Zuccarello had left New York at 5 a.m. on Sunday morning to play in this game 10 hours later, with players he had never before played with, you would have thought he and Faksa had been playing together for years. The idea Zuccarello knew where was Faksa was going to be, and when, and was able to time the pass to hit him in stride behind the defenseman with essentially a no-look pass was remarkable. It only took 11 minutes and 35 seconds of hockey for the Stars’ trade of Zuccarello to pay off.

One minute and 44 seconds into the second period, the Stars’ newest player would contribute again to the team’s eventual 4-3 win to maintain their first wild-card spot in the West. Tyler Seguin muscled through the defense of Gustav Forsling to find Zuccarello sitting alone in the left circle. Seguin managed to push the puck across the slot to Zuccarello, and he banged home a one-timer.

It was a little over eight years ago, on Christmas Eve, when the Rangers called up Zuccarello to make his NHL debut. A skilled, undrafted Norwegian forward, Zuccarello’s shootout success in the AHL had become a major selling point in New York, where the Rangers desperately needed help in obtaining the extra point. And it didn’t take long for him to get a chance to show his shootout abilities, as the Rangers found themselves in one against the Lightning in his first NHL game.

I can still see him standing at center ice waiting to begin his attempt with Sam Rosen setting the stage.

“In his first NHL game, here he comes, in against Dan Ellis, to keep it alive … slows down … fakes … SCORES!”

Zuccarello celebrated with a subtle fist pump while the MSG cameras panned to the bench where the rest of the team erupted. Zuccarello had done the impossible by getting a smile out of John Tortorella, who was in disbelief at the incredibly slow pace and maneuver used by the miniature rookie to find the back of the net. For a while, that same move became Zuccarello’s signature shootout move, and it seemed like it might never get stopped, despite every goalie in the league knowing it was coming.

Zuccarello became a fan favorite in New York as his jersey became the most popular non-Henrik Lundqvist wardrobe choice of Rangers fans. He was part of the Rangers for seven postseasons, three conference finals and one Stanley Cup Final, falling short of the team’s quest for a championship in their most recent window of opportunity.

Last season, Zuccarello watched as the core of the Rangers continued to be destroyed with Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller joining Ryan Callahan, Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi in Tampa Bay and Rick Nash being sent to Boston. Entering this season, Zuccarello’s impending free agency made him a coveted trade asset for the Rangers and the idea of him being separated from the Rangers and his best friend Lundqvist, literally started to ruin his life off the ice and diminish his play on it.

There was still hope the front office and Zuccarello could come to terms on an extension, but when the news broke on Saturday that he would be a healthy scratch for the Rangers’ afternoon game against the Devils, it became clear Zuccarello had played his last game as a Ranger. There is still the idea the Rangers could re-sign him in the offseason, but as a soon-to-be 32-year-old who likely wouldn’t be part of the next competitive Rangers team, coupled with the fact the Rangers let him go in the first place, it’s highly unlikely.

It took an incredible amount of poor personnel decisions, bad big-money contracts, horrible trades and nonsensical negotiating tactics to get to this point. This point being where the 2013-2016 Rangers have been stripped down to Lundqvist, Chris Kreider, Marc Staal and Jesper Fast with no real talent on the way, no timeline for the next competitive/playoff season and no idea when the next window to contend for the Stanley Cup might be.

It should have never come to this and had the Rangers been able to knock off the Devils in 2011-12 or been able to hold a two-goal lead or win an overtime game against the Kings in 2013-14 or hadn’t lost Game 7 at home to the Lightning in 2014-15 then none of this would matter now. The Rangers would have accomplished their goal, they wouldn’t have wasted Lundqvist’s prime and they would have won in the small timeframe they had to win. Instead, those three seasons are remembered as what could have been rather than what was.

Like Lundqvist and the other staples of this recent Rangers team, Zuccarello deserved better than to watch the best years of this core be wasted by jettisoning out the wrong players, and most egregiously, extending the wrong defensemen. Zuccarello deserved better than to spend the 2017-18 season on a team built as if it could still win and he deserved better than to play his last season for the Rangers on a team secretly hoping it would be bad enough to land the top pick in the 2019 draft.

When I turned on the Dallas-Chicago game on Sunday, it became real. It felt wrong to see Mats Zuccarello in others colors, for another team, but it made me smile to see him smile when he celebrated with Seguin, pointing at Seguin the way he would point at his Rangers teammates following a goal.

The camera zoomed in on Zuccarello and sticking out against the victory green, silver, black and white of his new jersey was a Rangers blue undershirt. Maybe, just maybe, he and the Rangers can come to terms on a new deal this summer. Otherwise, that blue Rangers undershirt is the closest Rangers fans will ever get to seeing him wear a Rangers jersey again.

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Offseason

Feb 20, 2019

Manny Machado Signing with Padres Is Next Best Thing for Yankees

I can stop constantly checking to see if the Yankees signed one of the 26-year-old star free agents after the Padres signed him to a 10-year, $300 million deal.

The Yankees don’t need Manny Machado or Bryce Harper to win the World Series. But signing one of them (or both of them as I wanted) sure would have given them a better chance to.

The Yankees won’t be signing Machado after he agreed to a 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres. Harper is still available, but with the Yankees being even less connected to Harper than they were to Machado all offseason, it looks like the Yankees are going to pass on both 26-year-old generational talents.

I spent the last few years waiting for this free-agent class like many Yankees fans, thinking 2019 would be the first chance in seven years the team would legitimately contend for a title. When the 2016 trade deadline ended, no one envisioned the Yankees getting within a win of the World Series in 2017 or winning 100 games in 2018, but these Yankees arrived two seasons early, giving Yankees fans two unexpected years of contention and seemingly two extra years of this current window of opportunity. With so many young stars and proven major league talent on cheap contracts, everyone thought the goal of getting under the luxury-tax threshold in 2018 was so the team could blow past it for 2019. They went past it this offseason, but they didn’t blow past it like they could have.

I’m not upset about the Yankees not signing Machado. I would have been upset if Machado ended up with the White Sox or Phillies or somewhere else for $175 million or $200 million or even $250 million, but the fact he got the $300 million he was expected to get makes it hurt less. Couple that with him now playing for the Padres in the NL West and it doesn’t hurt at all. Other than signing with the Yankees and performing like an MVP candidate through his prime, him signing with the Padres is the next best thing. He’s out of the division and out of the American League completely, and I only have to worry about him beating the Yankees every three years as opposed to six, seven or 19 times a year.

For Machado, it’s an incredible deal. He received the number many thought he would before this long and painful free-agent season occurred. It’s the largest free-agent contract in the history of North American sports, and if he doesn’t care about being in a big market and playing in big games, it’s the perfect situation. He can live by the water, in perfect weather, never playing meaningful games and not have to worry about his own fans booing him or sports radio hosts and bloggers picking apart every at-bat of his. Getting a guaranteed $300 million to play baseball in San Diego with no expectations shouldn’t be every player’s dream, it should be every person’s dream.

I wanted Machado because he’s a 26-year-old star, who plays both shortstop and third base and has owned the AL East with his bat, and the Yankees would have had him for his entire prime. The Yankees didn’t need Machado, but they could have afforded him just like every team in the league could have afforded him, despite what front offices and ownership throughout the majors wants fans to believe. The Padres of all teams were able to afford him. He would have been a luxury rather than a necessity on a team that is just beginning its window of opportunity to win a championship, and the Yankees have always been about adding luxuries, or at least they used to be.

Four months ago, it seemed inevitable I would be watching Machado play for the Yankees. Now I’ll get to see him play against the Yankees three times this season and then again in three years and three years after that. If he can’t be a Yankee, that’s the next best thing.

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