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Yankees Thoughts: Frustrating Weekend at Fenway

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees could have and should have swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park this weekend. Sure, I would have signed up for splitting the series prior to first pitch on Thursday, but after blowing a late two-run lead on Saturday and not being able to protect two different four-run leads on Sunday, a split feels like shit.

If the Yankees simply had a couple bad games like any team does over the course of 162 and lost on Saturday and Sunday, so be it. It happens. But the way they lost the third and fourth games of the series (after nearly blowing a five-run lead in the series opener) left a bad taste in my mouth going into Monday’s scheduled day off.

This happens all too frequently with these Yankees as they have now won just three of eight games this season leading into a scheduled day off and are 13-16 in such games since the start of last season. I understand you sometimes have to lose the battle to win the war, but the Yankees haven’t won the war in going on 13 years because they have lost (or given away) too many battles.

2. There’s a very good chance the Yankees and Red Sox meet in the ALDS. That would mean Gerrit Cole against whichever Red Sox pitcher they didn’t have to burn in the best-of-3 wild-card series. It could be Cole against a fringe major leaguer only in the majors because of injuries like it was Josh Winckowksi on Thursday night and I wouldn’t feel confident. Cole has a Red Sox problem. He has a Fenway Park problem. He has a Rafael Devers.

Luckily, Cole would face the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in that situation. (Not like that’s so much better given what we saw from him on Opening Day in the Bronx, but it’s better.) The last time Cole pitched well against the Red Sox was on July 17, 2021 at Yankee Stadium. He went six innings and allowed one run with 11 strikeouts. His catcher? Gary Sanchez. Nothing to see here! Good thing Kyle Higashioka unnecessarily served as Cole’s personal catcher! Since that game it’s been a bunch of mediocre to dreadful starts for Cole against the Red Sox, including the one-game playoff, Opening Day and this past Thursday.

Cole will get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS no matter what. If he’s faces the Red Sox that night, I won’t feel good about it, but there’s nothing that can be done. Just have to hope the Cole that was paired with Sanchez last July against them shows up.

3. Thursday’s 6-5 win was a game the 2021 Yankees lose. Instead of having Michael King and Clay Holmes at the back of the bullpen, it would have been Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees’ five-run lead would have been completely erased. We saw that duo destroy leads in Boston exactly a year ago.

I trust King and Holmes as much as I have ever trusted any Yankees 8-9 combination and that includes Mariano Rivera’s career. Holmes isn’t susceptible to the long ball. He isn’t susceptible to the ball being hit in the air period, even lazy fly balls. In Saturday’s loss, Holmes gets charged with the blown save, but he did his job: he got Alex Verdugo to hit a ground ball. It’s not Holmes’ fault the Yankees shifted and the ball got through the vacated hole on the left side.

4. The Yankees lost on Saturday because they ran themselves into outs on the bases with Kyle Higashioka inexplicably trying to steal second, Joey Gallo unnecessarily going for an inside-the-park home run and Anthony Rizzo attempting to steal third with one out in the 10th inning. They lost because Aaron Boone wouldn’t go back to Holmes in the 10th, even though he had just gone a week with throwing only two pitches. They lost because Boone thought Wandy Peralta was the best choice in the 10th with only right-handed batters due up. They lost because Josh Donaldson booted what should have been a game-ending double play.

On Sunday, they lost because Boone sat back and let Jameson Taillon piss away two different four-run leads. Once the second four-run lead was erased, Boone handed the ball to Aroldis Chapman in a tie game at Fenway Park, just days removed from saying Chapman would only pitch in low-leverage situations until he sorted himself out. Three batter later, the bases were loaded with no one out.

5. Later in the game on Sunday, Boone got ejected for arguing balls and strikes. I had second-hand embarrassment for Boone as he yelled at home plate umpire Tripp Gibson, “That’s fucking ball 6!,” after Giancarlo Stanton struck out looking. Boone wasn’t wrong. Hirokazu Sawamura threw six pitches to Stanton and they were all outside the zone. Stanton took all of them and was called out on strikes. But it wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone sat back and watched Taillon blow two different four-run leads and allow six earned runs in five innings. It wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone went to Chapman who immediately gave the Red Sox the lead. It was a bad look for the Yankees manager in a game and weekend full of bad looks for him.

Boone is an idiot. We have known this since the first series of his managerial career with his bullpen decisions in Toronto in 2018. Those decisions foreshadowed what would come that postseason and in the following seasons. Boone’s idiocy has been mostly masked this season by the incredible first half the starting pitching provided, Aaron Judge’s MVP campaign and the combination of King and Holmes. Even with the best rotation in baseball, the best player in baseball (this season) and the best back-end duo in baseball, Boone still can’t help himself show his true colors regularly. Boone isn’t a different manager in 2022, his players have just performed better. And for some reason when he opposes the Red Sox and Alex Cora, he can’t help himself from looking like a fool.

6. After the Astros series, I wrote the following about Taillon:

I have always planned on having Jameson Taillon out of the rotation for the postseason and his start on Thursday solidified my opinion. The Yankees are most likely to see the Red Sox, Rays or Blue Jays in the ALDS. While he has pitched well against the Rays and Blue Jays, I still wouldn’t trust him in a postseason games against those teams and in no way would I trust him against the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts Red Sox trio. Under no circumstance could he ever possibly start a playoff game against the Astros.

Since his start against the Astros, this is his line in four starts:

21 IP, 30 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 3 BB, 17 K, 7 HR, 8.57 ERA, 1.571 WHIP

That includes two poor starts against the worst-team-in-the-majors A’s and on the on-pace-for-94-losses Pirates.

Taillon was awful on Sunday night. He blew two different four-runs leads and allowed six earned runs in five innings, including three home runs. What did Boone think about Taillon’s latest egg?

“I thought he threw the ball really well,” Boone said. “There was a lot of conviction. There were a lot of good pitches. The stuff was quality.”

Again, he gave up three home runs and couldn’t hold a 4-0 or 6-2 lead. The stuff was quality!

Taillon can’t get a postseason start. He shouldn’t even get a postseason roster spot. If he’s not starting, what role would he have? Long men aren’t used in playoff games since every out is vital (don’t tell that to Joe Girardi who used Luis Ayala twice in the 2011 ALDS before using David Robertson once), and he doesn’t have the stuff to be a back-end reliever since he doesn’t have strikeout stuff. He can sit next to me in the stands and watch the postseason. Or he can sit in the dugout in his uniform and watch it. Either way, he can’t be a part of it.

7. Matt Carpenter needs to be a part of it. In Thursday’s Yankees Thoughts, I begged for the Yankees to make Carpenter an everyday player because he had earned it, and I believe in putting the best team on the field, and don’t believe in the Yankees’ philosophy of putting the team that’s owed the most money on the field.

Carpenter has now been an everyday player for all of July. He’s not filling in for injured regulars like he was when he signed for the Rays series back at the end of May. And as an everyday player in July, he’s hitting .464/.516/.964 with six runs, two doubles, for home runs, nine RBIs and two walks in 31 plate appearances. Over the weekend in Boston, he went a comical 7-for-14 with four runs, a double, two home runs, four RBIs, two walks and hit .500/.588/1.000. He hasn’t been great. He’s been Barry Bonds.

There’s no way Carpenter can go back to being a once-a-week-player like he was in June. After Judge, he’s the hitter I trust most on the Yankees. He works long counts, only swings at strikes and seems to be on base in every plate appearance. There’s a strong case to be made that Carpenter and not Rizzo should be batting third for the Yankees. If he keeps up even half of this production, that move should be made. Again, I care about creating the best possible roster and lineup. I don’t care about money owed, years owed on current contracts or manager-player relationships. I care about winning. If the Yankees did the same, the team wouldn’t be trying to win it’s first championship in 13 years.

8. It’s going to be hard to win that championship with Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the team’s starting shortstop. The Isiah Kiner-Falefa Stopgap Experiment has run its course. Over the weekend, Kiner-Falefa faced mostly minor-league pitching and went 1-for-12 with a walk. He had a magnificent play at shortstop on Saturday, but negated it by throwing away an easy, routine play on Sunday. He can’t be trusted at the plate to do anything other than hit a weak grounder on the first or second pitch of his at-bat. In the field he can’t be trusted to make even the most routine play.

I have no problem with Kiner-Falefa. He didn’t ask to be traded to the Yankees and used as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. I have a problem with the Yankees for choosing him to be their starting shortstop. I will have an enormous problem if he’s the starting shortstop come the ALDS in October.

It won’t be impossible to win the World Series with Kiner-Falefa in the lineup, but it won’t be easy. The Yankees would essentially be playing with a near-automatic out in their lineup at a time when each out is so valuable. They will also lose another bat to keep Kiner-Falefa in the lineup.

If the Yankees don’t make any moves and keep their current roster, these bats could potentially play in October:

1. Jose Trevino
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. DJ LeMahieu
4. Gleyber Torres
5. Josh Donaldson
6. Matt Carpenter
7. Aaron Judge
8. Gianarlo Stanton
9. Aaron Hicks

If it were me, I would use those nine names to create a lineup. I would put Torres back at shortstop over Kiner-Falefa. The Yankees aren’t going to do that. No matter how many routine plays Kiner-Falefa fails to make (like he did on Sunday night), he’s going to play short if the roster remains the same. To me, that would mean sitting Hicks down. But in order to sit Hicks down, a general manager, front office and manager who absolutely adore Hicks for unknown reasons would have to agree to not play him.

The Yankees had their chance in the offseason to sign a real shortstop. They didn’t. So now Yankees fans need to pray Peraza continues to break out at Triple-A and forces the Yankees to give him an extended look in the majors. Otherwise Kiner-Falefa will play in October and someone who’s an actual major leaguer that can help the team win the World Series won’t.

9. On Saturday, Hicks’ OPS reached .700 for the first time since May 4. Congratulations to Hicks on that achievement. He has three home runs in his last 32 plate appearances after having three in his first 235 plate appearances. I have seen the idea floated that Hicks’ wrist is finally regaining its strength and that his power is returning. I wish that were true.

Hicks’ three July home runs have come against Josh VanMeter, Winckowski and Kutter Crawford. VanMeter is a utility position player for the Pirates and not a pitcher. Winckowski has 31 career innings to his name. Crawford has 32 career innings to his name. Hicks saw something resembling a major-league pitcher on Sunday in Nick Pivetta (who does truly suck) and went 0-for-3 with a walk.

The same goes for Josh Donaldson. Donaldson homered on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. He hit them against Mitch Keller, Winckowski and Connor Seabold. His other six home runs this year have come against Travis Lakins, Cal Quantrill, Tanner Banks, Matt Foster and Felix Bautista. The only name of those nine that might throw a pitch in the postseason is Quantrill, but his Guardians are currently under .500, don’t hold a playoff spot and have a worse record than the Orioles.

I want Hicks and Donaldson to play well. Hicks is under contract for three more years and Donaldson for next year. The two them meeting expectations would help the Yankees win the World Series. But I’m not about to get excited for the two of them mashing position players pitching and a bunch of fringe major leaguers making spot starts.

10. For the division, this past weekend didn’t matter. The Yankees’ lead remains an insurmountable 14 games, and the Rays and Blue Jays have both lost three and four straight respectively. What this weekend did matter for was having the best record in the American League, which the Yankees still do, but now only have a 4 1/2-game edge over the extremely hot Astros.

A little over a week ago when the Yankees went to Houston and scored one run it was nothing new. That’s what they do in Houston, and that type of performance against the Astros’ fourth-best starter should be worrisome to the Yankees and should be a reminder that winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is imperative.

The Yankees didn’t have home-field in either the 2017 ALCS or 2019 ALCS. A potential Yankees-Astros 2022 ALCS will likely end the same way if Games 1, 2, 4 and 7 are played in Houston.


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MLB Bets: Friday, July 8

Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.

With a second child being born and now having two under 21 months, the last couple of months have been a gongshow. The betting hasn’t slowed, but the MLB Bets blogs have. There’s still half a season to be played and wagered on and then the postseason, so time to get back to the blog.

Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.

Yankees -154 over Red Sox
Just one play for Friday night.

If the Yankees don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat them, the Red Sox can’t beat them. The Red Sox are so beat up and banged up from a pitching perspective that what was a mediocre staff to begin the season is now an atrocious staff.

We saw that with Josh Winckowski getting lit up by the Yankees (and Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks of all hitters) on Thursday. On Friday, the Red Sox will follow up Winckowski with Connor Seabold who has pitched 8 2/3 innings this season and has allowed 18 baserunners and three home runs.

Yes, the Yankees could lose, and yes, no Yankees-Red Sox game in any season between the two teams can be considered a sure-thing for either team. But Seabold is as bad a starter as the Yankees will see this season. They don’t need Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo back in the lineup to beat him and the Red Sox again. But if they are both back on Friday, this line won’t be available at -154.


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Yankees Podcast: Can Gerrit Cole Ever Be Trusted Against Boston?

The Yankees beat the Red Sox 6-5 on Thursday in the first game between the rivals in three months.

The Yankees beat the Red Sox 6-5 on Thursday in the first game between the rivals in three months. The Yankees had a supposed enormous advantage on the mound with Gerrit Cole, but the Yankees’ “ace” allowed five runs, all on two Rafael Devers home runs. The two teams could very well meet in the ALDS or ALCS, and with Cole’s issues against the Red Sox, how can he be trusted against them in October?

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Yankees Thoughts: Play Matt Carpenter, Call Up Estevan Florial

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled game in Houston.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. A little more than a week off from the Thoughts and not much has happened. The Yankees swept the A’s (as they should), scored one run in a loss in Houston (as they always do), beat up on the Guardians (as they should) and then had one anemic offensive performance in Pittsburgh and one outstanding offensive performance in Pittsburgh. I would say the last 10 games have gone exactly as expected. No surprises.

2. I was surprised on Wednesday when the lineup for the second game of the two-game series against the Pirates was announced. This was the lineup Aaron Boone put together on Wednesday:

DJ LeMahieu
Aaron Judge
Matt Carpenter
Giancarlo Stanton
Gleyber Torres
Josh Donaldson
Joey Gallo
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Kyle Higashioka

3. Matt Carpenter played in his first game as a Yankee on May 26, which was the team’s 45th game. Wednesday night’s game against the Pirates was the team’s 82nd game. Since his playing in his first game with the Yankees, the team has played 38 games. Wednesday was his 12th start.

Carpenter started on June 3 and then started again nine days later on June 12. He started on June 22 and then not again until July 2. He has had two stretches of at least nine days in which he didn’t start a game, despite being able to play first base, third base and right field, on a team whose third baseman has been absolutely atrocious and whose outfield has been Aaron Judge and sometimes Giancarlo Stanton, when he’s allowed to play the outfield.

So Carpenter isn’t good enough to start more than once in every three games on average, but when he does play he’s good enough to bat third?

4. It was refreshing to see Boone finally move Donaldson down to sixth in the order. He’s not deserving of batting that high either, but when the 7 through 9 is Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka, Donaldson has to hit sixth.

Donaldson hit his seventh home run of the season on Wednesday night in the team’s 82nd game. Since it was the Yankees’ first game in the official second half of the season, by hitting that home run Donaldson increased his 2022 pace from 12 to 14 if he were to play in remaining every game (which he won’t.) So unless Donaldson gets “hot,” he’s going to post a single-season low for home runs. (His previous low is 24.)

After Donaldson’s home run in Pittsburgh, the YES broadcast made sure to comment that Boone said he has liked Donaldson’s at-bats of late. A little puzzling since Boone and the Yankees have made it clear in the past they don’t believe in the concept of players being “hot,” and if they don’t believe in it, then none of his recent at-bats should have any correlation to his at-bat resulting in the home run on Wednesday.

Donaldson has hit four doubles and now the home run (which was his second since May 16) in his last eight games. So if Boone thinks his at-bats have been better of late then why is he hitting .226/.242/.452 in those games. The .694 OPS over his last eight games is pretty much in line with his season totals of .226/.313/.387 and a .700 OPS.

5. A .700 OPS is abysmal, especially for a player with an .863 career OPS who the Yankees owe $24 million to this season and next. (I’m not upset with Donaldson for being traded to the Yankees and immediately being washed up at age 36. That’s on the Yankees for making a trade for a 36-year-old, oft-injured third baseman.) If you want to say he’s an above-average player in 2022 based on OPS+ (101) or wRC+ (102) because offense is down for the league, well that’s bullshit. A player of Donaldson’s resume, salary and treatment shouldn’t be hovering around the league-average 100 line. He shouldn’t need to be defended and excused because “offense is down around the league.”

6. Again, I’m not upset with Donaldson. The trade was foolish the day it happened and looks even more foolish with the results of the players involved since: Donaldson has been awful, Kiner-Falefa has been awful and Ben Rortvedt has been hurt all year. I’m not defending Gio Urshela (who has been a better player than Donaldson in 2022 at one-fourth the cost) or Gary Sanchez. The Yankees could have moved both of those players in other deals. They chose to move them to acquire Donaldson and his $48 million and Kiner-Falefa, whose rarely capable of hitting the ball out of the infield. The money owed to Donaldson shouldn’t matter since we’re talking about the Yankees, but it does matter because we’re talking about the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees and Donaldson’s salary will hinder them at this trade deadline and for building the 2023 roster. The Yankees chose to pass on Carlos Correa, who is having an awesome season, and allowed the Twins to free up the money needed to sign Correa by absorbing Donaldson’s $48 million. Through one half of the season, the entire deal has been a disaster for the Yankees.

Maybe the second half of the season will be a different story. Maybe Donaldson won’t unnecessarily bat in the Top 5 in the order with a sub-.700 OPS. Maybe Kiner-Falefa will make the routine plays at shortstop and not create one (or two) outs on the first or second pitch of every at-bat. I’m not expecting either to turn it around as the season gets older (and Donaldson gets older with it). I expect Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter. Well, I don’t expect it since we’re talking about the Yankees and reputation and money owed is more important than actual productions or wins, but I want Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter.

7. As for Kiner-Falefa, I fear that the Yankees plan on him being the everyday shortstop for the rest of the season. They were willing to pass on every available free-agent shortstop to use Kiner-Falefa as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. So unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres back to short (they’re not) or play Marwin Gonzalez every day (they’re not) then the only option to upgrade at short is for Peraza (very unlikely) or Volpe (pretty much impossible) to force the Yankees to call them up. It’s unlikely for Peraza and nearly impossible for Volpe because the Yankees don’t want to rush either, and neither has had a season worthy of a major-league call-up. They have both been good of late, but they’re still seemingly not close to being the answer yet.

8. The Yankees could have an answer to one of the three automatic outs in their lineup in Estevan Florial. The 24-year-old outfielder is having a breakout season at Triple-A, finally putting it all together with a .905 OPS. He’s deserving of a call-up and of getting a chance in the majors.

The Yankees have been and will continue to be connected to the Royals’ Andrew Benintendi and the Cubs’ Ian Happ, but before needing to go out and deplete the farm even more to acquire an answer to Gallo after already trading away four pieces from the farm a year ago to acquire Gallo, Florial should get a chance. The answer could already be in the organization. A 24-year-old, left-handed-hitting center fielder, who the Yankees have been grooming and waiting on since 2015!

Call up Florial and play him every day for the remainder of July and see what you have. Even that’s not the greatest sample size of everyday playing time in the majors, but it’s better than the current situation of him hitting bombs in Triple-A while Gallo and Hicks strike out, ground out and pop up pitches in the majors.

9. The Yankees have two in-house fixes to ridding themselves of two automatic outs in the lineup by playing Carpenter regularly and calling up Florial. The only way to rid themselves of the third is for all Yankees fans to collectively pray that Peraza goes off for the next month in Triple-A the way Florial has of late and then the Yankees will be forced to try something other than letting Kiner-Falefa hit a weak ground ball to short on the first or second pitch of every at-bat of his.

Living with one automatic out in the lineup is doable. It’s not ideal, but it’s doable. It’s less doable than it was entering the season when Yankees fans thought they were getting a Gold Glove at short with a contact-approach bat in the 9-hole, since what Yankees fans got was a slight upgrade from Gleyber Torres at short with a weak-contact-only bat. But I guess it’s doable.

10. The Yankees buried the Red Sox in the AL East long ago. The Red Sox haven’t had a chance to win the division in months. Over the next 10 days, the Yankees can severely hurt the Red Sox’ playoff chances as well.

The Yankees will play the Red Sox four times this weekend and three times next weekend. The Red Sox’ pitching staff is in shambles, their bullpen sucks, and if you don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat you, the Red Sox won’t beat you.

If these Yankees want to avoid the possibility of being eliminated by the Red Sox in the postseason for the third time in five years, they can make sure the Red Sox don’t get to the postseason by beating up on them for the next two weekends and in their 16 remaining games against them this season.


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Yankees Podcast: Can’t Stop Thinking About Astros

The Yankees won the first game of their three-game series against the A’s on Tuesday 9-5, and even though they are not playing the Astros, I can’t stop thinking about that. That’s how important and

The Yankees won the first game of their three-game series against the A’s on Tuesday 9-5, and even though they are not playing the Astros, I can’t stop thinking about that. That’s how important and telling the series over the weekend was.


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