Blogs – Page 104 – Keefe To The City

Nov 7, 2019

NFL Week 10 Picks

The regular season is more than halfway over and there’s not a lot of time to get the picks back on track. This week is all about simplifying things.

When I look back at my picks at the end of each week, I have no idea why I picked the way I did on multiple games. It’s a tradition like no other. No matter how much I try to simplify things, I’m still left questioning myself each week.

I shouldn’t have picked the 49ers to cover 10 on a short week on the road.

I should have listened to myself and my lack of trust for Kirk Cousins even if the Vikings were facing a backup quarterback.

I should have known the Jets would lose to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the winless Dolphins.

I should have recognized the Browns facing a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start wouldn’t suddenly make them not the Browns.

I should have followed my belief that the Chargers aren’t as bad their record and are the same team that went to the divisional round last year, especially at home.

I should have followed the easy storyline that the Patriots always struggle against the Ravens.

These were very avoidable mistakes, but they were mistakes nonetheless, and instead of starting to dig myself out of my under-.500 hole I dug further in the wrong direction. This week is about simplifying things. I need to treat each NFL week as the one-week season it should be treated as. I need to get back to the basics and put together a winning week. It’s already Week 10 and time is running is out to get back to respectability.

(Home team in caps)

Los Angeles -1 over OAKLAND
I don’t think the Raiders are any good, no matter how many times they have screwed me this season. I do think the Chargers are good, no matter how many times they have screwed me this season. If the Chargers are going to return to the playoffs, they have to win this game. If they lose, they will be three games back in the loss column to the Chiefs for the division and three games back in the loss column for the second wild-card spot.

CHICAGO -2.5 over Detroit
The Bears don’t deserve to make the playoffs, and they won’t. But it wouldn’t be a Bears season if they didn’t provide their fan base with an abundance of heartache. The four straight losses, 3-5 start and current last-place standing in the NFC North isn’t the type of heartache I’m talking about. I’m talking about doing enough to get back into the postseason picture in the NFC and then fall short in the final weeks of the season.

Baltimore -10 over CINCINNATI
The Dolphins foolishly beating the Jets and going from having the first overall pick to the fourth at the end of the game led to a sideline celebration in Miami and Brian Flores getting drenched in Gatorade. But the real celebration was happening in Cincinnati where I like to think the Bengals front office was dumping Gatorade on each other following the Dolphins’ win. The Bengals are now the only remaining winless team in the league and control their own destiny to securing the first overall pick in the draft and having a chance to draft Tua Tagovailoa and change the future of their franchise. Let’s see how the Bengals handle their chance with the No. 1 pick.

Buffalo +2.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns are favored. The 2-6 Browns are favored to beat the 6-2 Bills. I had to check the line three times to make sure I was reading it right, and I am. The Browns are the favorites. It’s been very enjoyable watching the Browns be every bit as bad as the Giants and watching Odell Beckham once again be part of a losing team in a lost season. Beckham has become an afterthought in Cleveland with 575 yards and one touchdown through eight games. And while he might still eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, 1,000 yards for him was always a given. Like a band that once sold out stadiums and areanas and has been resigned to playing college campuses and small clubs, Beckham is no longer who he was a Giant. The non-performance stories like him wearing a watch during games or needing to change his cleats at halftime are now all anyone talks about with him because there’s no on-field performance or moments worth talking about.

NEW ORLEANS -12.5 over Atlanta
There’s going to be a lot of cardboard boxes being packed in the Falcons’ offices in a few weeks. It should have happened the second the team blew the 25-point, second-half lead in the Super Bowl, and because it didn’t, it’s hard to feel sorry for the Falcons for their performance these last three seasons.

New York Giants -2 over NEW YORK JETS
The Embarrassment Bowl. If the Giants win, they improve to 3-7 and the Jets fall to 1-8. If the Jets win, they improve to 2-7 and the Giants fall to 2-8. Even though there’s going to be a winner (though a tie would be a perfect result for this game), there’s no winner in this team. Both teams are losers, led by losers.

TAMPA BAY -4 over Arizona
The Buccaneers are the best 2-6 team in the league. I don’t know that a 2-6 team can be the best anything, but I do feel like the Buccaneers are better than their record, even if Bill Parcells would disagree. The Cardinals franchise is historically bad when it leaves its time zone and dome and has to play on the East Coast and outside, even if that outside is in sunny Florida. This logic led me to pick against the Cardinals when they played at MetLife against the Giants even though it didn’t work out. Bruce Arians isn’t Shurmur and it will work out in this instance.

Kansas City -5.5 over TENNESSEE
I’m picking the Chiefs under the assumption that Patrick Mahomes is going to play. If Mahomes weren’t going to play, I would still pick the Chiefs.

INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 over Miami
The Dolphins did everyone who wants to tease the Colts this week a favor by beating the Jets last week. Had the Dolphins lost again, this line would have probably been at least two touchdowns. Instead, it’s a reasonable six- or seven-point tease.

Carolina +5 over GREEN BAY
I think the quarterback controversy in Carolina was over before there ever got to be one. Cam Newton seems to be done for the season, and even if he he weren’t, how could the Panthers start him over Kyle Allen? Newton has most certainly played his final game for the Panthers, and that idea will become more and more real if the Panthers keep on winning.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Rams have gotten back on track after their unexpected three-game losing streak. Even if they got back on track at the expense against a bad Falcons team and a league-worst Bengals team, they still got back on track. With a congested NFC playoff picture, the Rams can’t afford another letdown against a truly inferior opponent like the one they had against the Buccaneers, and I don’t think they will have another one.

Minnesota +3 over DALLAS
There isn’t a combination of two “good” teams I trust less. The only “good” win either of these teams has is over the Eagles and that’s not saying much given how the Eagles have performed in the first half of the season. I fully expect Kirk Cousins to screw this game up the way he screws up nearly every game for the Vikings, but the Vikings are the better, more complete team in this matchup and when the better, more complete team is getting three points, you take them.

Seattle +6 over SAN FRANCISCO
It’s the head coach who OK’d a pass on the goal line in the Super Bowl despite having the best running back in the league on his team against the now-head coach who was the offensive coordinator for a 25-point blown lead in the Super Bowl. If only Dan Quinn could somehow be part of this game. He probably will have the chance to be next season when he’s looking for a coordinator job after he’s finally fired by the Falcons. Six points in a divisional matchup with the division essentially on the line is way too many.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 62-72-1

Blogs • Rangers

Nov 6, 2019

Rangers’ Rebuild Has Been Expected Rollercoaster Ride

The first month of the season has been a rollercoaster ride of performance of production with mixed results, and it’s been exactly what’s to be expected of a rebuild.

The Rangers won their first two games of the season then lost their next five. They beat the talented Sabres and then looked like they didn’t belong in the same league as the Bruins. They upset the Lightning and Predators and then were embarrassed at home by the league-worst Senators. The Rangers have at times looked like a team capable of playing meaningful games in the early spring with the possibility of sneaking into the playoffs and at other times have looked like a team in the early stages of a rebuild and years away from contending.

So is life as a rebuilding team, which the Rangers are. Miraculously moving up in the draft to second and signing the offseason’s most-coveted free agent didn’t change the fact the Rangers aren’t expected to return to the playoffs for the first time in three years this season, and most likely won’t be back in the postseason next season either. The Rangers might have been able to skip the earliest phases of a rebuild by drafting Kaapo Kakko, signing Artemi Panarin and trading Jacob Trouba, while having three starting NHL goalies on the roster, and one of the better two-way centers in the league in Mika Zibanejad, but it’s still early in the rebuild. The Rangers were able to advance to GO without having to run through a gauntlet of hotels along the way because of some luck, good fortune and crafty trades, but they still have a long way before they can be taken seriously.

Aside from watching the fourth line scramble to clear the zone and prevent high-quality scoring chances in their limited ice time, this Rangers season has been enjoyable and I expect it to remain that way. Sure, I could do without the emotional and disciplinary meltdowns like the one against the Senators earlier this week in what was as winnable a game as they get though those kind of games are going to happen given the Rangers’ inexperienced roster, which is the second-youngest in the league when Henrik Lundqvist and Marc Staal are playing, and the youngest when they’re not.

The wins and losses ultimately don’t matter this season. Right now, they do because the Rangers are still months away from the expected separation from a wild-card berth and technically have a goal of playoff hockey, however in the big picture, they don’t. Experience and development is all that matters for this team. There will be impressive feel-good wins over contenders like those over Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Nashville, and subsequents depressing letdowns against the league’s lesser teams like those to New Jersey and Ottawa, but the main goal is experience and development.

The one constant needs to be effort. After a month of hockey, David Quinn has mentioned on more than one occasion about needing to deliver a message to his team, as has Lundqvist who spoke about the team’s performance not being close to good enough during their five-game losing streak. Without the veteran leadership the team once possessed during their true contending seasons from 2011-2015, it’s understandable the second-youngest (and at times youngest) team in the league will get away from what makes them dangerous like they were over the weekend and makes them vulnerable in all three zones and extremely beatable.

The first month of the season has been a rollercoaster ride of performance of production with mixed results, and it’s been exactly what’s to be expected of a rebuild. The Rangers are headed in the right direction even if it seems like it might take forever to get there.

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Offseason

Nov 5, 2019

It’s Time for Yankees to Move on from Didi Gregorius

I don’t want the Yankees to bring Didi Gregorius back. It’s time to move on. It’s not that I would be upset if the Yankees do decide to bring him back, I just don’t want them to.

On Opening Day 2015, the Yankees trailed the Blue Jays 6-1 when Didi Gregorius was hit by a pitch to lead off the bottom of the eighth inning. With two outs, Carlos Beltran walked to push Gregorius into scoring position as Mark Teixeira came to the plate. The Yankees had a chance to get back into the game with one swing with from Teixeira, but on the first pitch to Teixeira, Gregorius inexplicably took off for third and was thrown out. Inning over, rally over, Yankees’ last chance to get back in the game over.

There was no need for Gregorius to try to steal third, mainly because there’s never a good reason to steal third, unless you’re being given it and are 100 percent certain you will get there. It was an ill-advised move by Derek Jeter’s heir most likely trying to do way too much in his first game with his new team in the team’s first game with a new everyday shortstop in 20 years. Gregorius tried to get into better scoring position for no logical reason, and while the Yankees were most likely going to lose the game anyway, it expedited the result.

After spending much of 2015 criticizing Gregorius, I grew to like and accept him as a player over the next four years despite his in-game decisions like stealing third with two outs, laying down bunts when it was the last thing the team needed or swinging at the first pitch after the previous hitter walked on four straight pitches. He saved the season in the 2017 wild-card game, beat up Corey Kluber in Game 5 of the 2017 ALDS, was the best player in baseball for the first 30 games of 2018 and provided the game-breaking grand slam in Game 2 of this year’s ALDS. Aside from the few postseason moments and the improbable early-season run in April 2018, Gregorius has been exactly what I thought he would be as a Yankee: a great fielder, but a low on-base, bottom-of-the-order bat. Due to injuries and a lack of left-handed bats, Gregorius was often miscast a Top 6 presence in the Yankees’ lineup when he has mostly belonged in the bottom third. Overall, the Gregorius trade worked out for the Yankees. They got an everyday, defensive-minded shortstop who was able to realize his power potential for five seasons.

When it was announced the Yankees didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Gregorius, I wasn’t shocked since he would have most likely accepted the one-year, nearly $18 million payday to rebuild his stock after Tommy John surgery and if the Yankees really wanted him back they could get him for more years at a lower average annual salary. But I don’t want the Yankees to bring him back for more years at any salary. It’s time to move on from Gregorius. It’s not that I would be upset if the Yankees do decide to bring Gregorius back, I just don’t want them to.

It’s not for any one reason but rather a combination of reasons. His low career on-base, his decline in production following surgery, his age turning 30 prior to Opening Day 2020 and his in-game baseball IQ being the lowest on the team since Nick Swisher. Unfortunately, money does matter to these Yankees and any money spent on Gregorius is less the team would have to spend eventually on someone like DJ LeMahieu or any of the young core players. In an ideal world, or a world prior to Hal Steinbrenner counting every penny, I would welcome Gregorius back knowing the Yankees would eventually not play him if he didn’t perform or move on from him if they needed to. But these Yankees won’t do that. Money owed is more important than production and if Gregorius were to fall off on the other side of 30, Yankees fans would have to sit through it.

The question becomes what the Yankees do at shortstop. Thankfully, they have a 22-year-old shortstop who has been playing second base for the last two seasons they could slide over to short and a three-time Gold Glove second baseman who has been playing first base who could slide over to second. The Yankees could then have either Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar at third base, possibly move to Andujar to first base (which I want them to do), or go with a healthy Luke Voit there.

Gregorius was a nice player for the Yankees. He became a fan favorite, had some big hits, a few Yankees Classic-worthy moments and turned his career around in New York. He ended up being a more-than-acceptable replacement to an all-time Yankee at a position which hadn’t seen change in two decades and his time with the Yankees went much better than originally expected. But it’s time for a change and time to move on from Gregorius.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Giants

Nov 5, 2019

Giants-Cowboys Week 9 Thoughts: Another Game Played Means Another Loss

The Giants might not have the right head coach to lead them in the future, but they have the right head coach for this season. They have the right head coach to lose and keep losing.

I didn’t think the Giants would beat the Cowboys on Monday night. My opinion didn’t change when Dak Prescott was intercepted on the first play of the game. It didn’t change when the Giants took a 3-0 lead. It didn’t change when Brett Maher missed a go-ahead field goal. It didn’t change when Randall Cobb fumbled. It didn’t change when the Giants took a 9-3 lead and then a 12-3 lead. It didn’t change when the Cowboys screwed up, which they did a lot of, because I knew the Giants would screw up more in the end, and they did, and they lost 37-18.

The moment the Giants couldn’t take advantage of a first-and-Goal situation from the 7 after the Prescott interception to start the game, the result was inevitable. The Giants turned two Cowboys turnovers into a combined six points as they couldn’t cash in in the red zone, Aldrick Rosas missed another extra point, Daniel Jones had three more turnovers and Pat Shurmur lost another unwinnable challenge. It was the New York Football Giants’ weekly superfecta as the game had every ingredient for a recipe for another Giants loss.

The Cowboys aren’t good. Four of their five wins are against the Giants (twice), Dolphins and Redskins, and they are the same team that lost to the Jets three weeks ago. They played as sloppy and undisciplined of a game imaginable and still came away with a 19-point win because of how much worse the Giants were and are. Had the Cowboys put together that kind of effort against the league’s better teams they would have been the team losing by three scores.

The Giants need to play near-perfect football like they did against the Redskins or be gifted a win like they were against the Buccaneers to do anything other than lose at this stage of their rebuild. Jones is nowhere near ready to lead a competitive team, the offensive line is nowhere near ready to being competitive, the defense can’t put together a complete-game effort and is mostly lost and the head coach is about as qualified for his job as Bradley Jackson is for hers on The Morning Show.

Another week, another game, another expected loss for the Giants which resulted in a loss. The same story keeps getting told each week for a team that has lost 30 of its last 40 games, with another loss in the postseason, and is 40-65 since 2013. The team is now 7-17 under Shurmur, and while any successful coach would be discouraged by a .500 record, Shurmur can only dream of such an accomplishment.

If there are any Shurmur fans or supporters out there … why? How can you support and root for a guy who does nothing but lose an NFL head coach? Not just with the Giants, but anywhere. A head coach who can’t seem to design plays or a plan to properly utilize the most dynamic offensive player in the sport. A head coach who continues to make the same mistakes, place blame and not accept responsibility for what is another lost Giants season.

The only bright spot from the Giants’ performance in yet another loss to the Cowboys is that they continue to improve their draft status and make it harder for Shurmur to retain his job for 2020. I have no idea how ownership can even think for a second about bringing Shurmur back next season. Like Brian Cashman said about Sonny Gray before trading him, “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” there’s no way the Giants can think Shurmur is magically going to find ability as a head coach next season. The front office let Shurmur ruin two seasons too many and they can’t allow him to ruin a third straight.

All there’s left for the Giants to do this season is to lose and keep losing. Get Jones and the young defense game experience along the way, and most importantly, keep on losing. The Giants might not have the right head coach to lead them in the future, but they have the right head coach for this season. They have the right head coach to lose and keep losing.

Blogs • Giants • NFL • NFL Picks

Oct 31, 2019

NFL Week 9 Picks

The season has become a one-month season at best for the Giants for all but one of the last seven years. Combine the Giants’ losing with a 5-10 picks week like last week and I wonder why I even watch this sport.

It’s been three years since the Giants played a meaningful game after October. Sure, last season they weren’t mathematically eliminated as far as December, but it was going to take the biggest miracle of all miracles for them to reach the postseason and that miracle certainly didn’t happen.

The NFL season has become a one-month season at best for the Giants and Giants fans like me for all but one of the last seven years and it’s miserable. Combine the Giants’ losing ways with a 5-10 picks week like last week and I wonder why I even watch this sport. Maybe the young and exciting, but very inconsistent Rangers will give me something to do after the holidays to get through the dark days of winter until March Madness and Opening Day. because once again, it won’t be the Giants.

(Home team in caps)

San Francisco -10 over ARIZONA
A 10-point line to open the week isn’t the greatest when you’re coming off a five-win week and need to start putting together a lot of Ws to dig out of a 10-games-under-.500-hole. I know taking the points on the road on a short week goes against everything I know about the NFL, but I can’t talk myself into the Cardinals.

JACKSONVILLE -1 over Houston
Flip a coin. I’m going with the Jaguars in their second home of London against yet another overrated Texans team. (I hate this game.)

BUFFALO -10.5 over Washington
Dwayne Haskins’ first career start is coming on the road in Buffalo against the Bills’ defense. That’s all.

Minnesota -4.5 over KANSAS CITY
I trust Kirk Cousins as much as I trust Pat Shurmur to challenge a play worth challenging. So needing Cousins to cover four points at hostile Arrowhead isn’t exactly an ideal situation. I’m banking on the Vikings’ defense being able to shut down a Matt Moore-led offense, and if they can’t do that then the Vikings are even bigger frauds than I think they are with one of their six wins being even remotely close to solid.

New York Jets -3.5 over MIAMI
If the Jets can’t beat the Dolphins then Adam Gase needs to be fired immediately following the game. I mean immediately after the team leaves the field. No ride home with the team on the plane. Fired. In the same building he was fired from a year ago.

PHILADELPHIA -4.5 over Chicago
As long as Mitch Trubisky is starting games for the Bears, I will be picking against the Bears.

Indianapolis -1 over PITTSBURGH
For some reason I like this Colts team. I continue to pick them to cover and win, bet on them and put them in teasers. They’re not that good if they’re even any good at all, but for some unknown reason I continue to trust and back them. I can’t explain it, but there’s very little that can be explained with regards to anything in this league.

CAROLINA -3.5 over Tennessee
As long as Ryan Tannehill is starting games for the Titans, I will be picking against the Titans.

OAKLAND +2.5 over Detroit
I’m done picking against the Raiders. Even though they’re not “good”, they’re good enough to keep screwing me over in parlays and teasers, and the only answer is to now starting picking in favor of them.

SEATTLE -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay shocked everyone when they went across the country and beat the Rams earlier this season. There’s a difference between being play a road game against the Rams and their “fans” and one against the Seahawks and their fans.

Cleveland -4 over DENVER
Baker Mayfield has regressed in his second season in the league, which isn’t what you want from the No. 1 overall pick and your franchise quarterback. Between Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, the supposed great quarterback draft class of 2018 is look anything but that. The Browns are bad and I enjoy watching them lose, but even these Browns should be able to win in Denver against a quarterback making his first NFL start.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 over Green Bay
I still think the Chargers are good. No, they’re not going to win a championship, but they’re good enough to be a playoff team and win a playoff game like they were last season. At some point though, they’re going to want to actually start putting wins together in order to be a playoff team and win a playoff game.

New England -3 over BALTIMORE
Two teams I hate and one of them has to win. The Patriots don’t usually play well against the Ravens, but it’s hard to pick against this Patriots defense right now, which looks the way it did in the early years of the dynasty.

Dallas -6.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
When the Giants scored a touchdown on their first possession of the season against the Cowboys, I thought this season might amount to something. It didn’t. The Cowboys aren’t very good, but the Giants suck, and I can’t see a scenario where the Cowboys don’t convert third downs all game against the awful Giants defense.

Last week: 5-10-0
Season: 55-65-1