I want this to be the beginning of the Giants’ return to being competitive, but for that to happen, the defense is going to have to greatly improve, no matter how well Daniel Jones plays.
I was supposed to be at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. I was going to go Tampa to watch the Giants play the Buccaneers and then see the Yankees play the Rays at Tropicana Field during the week. When the Yankees decided they would play spring training lineups until the playoffs started and the Giants proved to be as bad as ever in the first two weeks of the season, I canceled my trip. It didn’t make sense to go all the way to Florida to watch my teams play meaningless games.
Then last Wednesday happened and Pat Shurmur announced Daniel Jones as his starting quarterback, effectively ending Eli Manning’s career, and I began to think about if I should uncancel the trip to see the official start of a new era of Giants football. But that thought was quickly wiped away by the visions of the Buccaneers going up and down the field at will against the Giants defense, the way every other offense has against the Giants since the start of the 2017 season. I ultimately decided I didn’t want to be in the building for the first game in the post-Manning era, and I would rather see if the quarterback attached at the hip to the job of the Giants general manager and head coach was capable of playing in the NFL from my couch.
I didn’t know how to feel for Sunday’s game. As a Giants fan, I want Jones to succeed so that the Giants can play meaningful football past Week 3 in future seasons, but I don’t want Shurmur or Dave Gettleman to be part of the organization for future seasons, and if Jones succeeds then they stay. As a Manning fan, I don’t want the Giants winning a game or games changing the narrative to the reasons behind this multi-season mess and the blame then being pinned on the best quarterback in franchise history because of it. It’s quite the predicament and it created a weird way of watching Sunday’s game. Tiki Barber’s glowing praise for Jones and subtle shots at Manning combined with his glee for getting to broadcast a game in which Manning was the backup didn’t help matters.
I was impressed by Jones in his first real NFL action. He exceeded expectations from a stat perspective, throwing for 336 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for two touchdowns as well, and also from a poise and demeanor standpoint, never looking out of place as a rookie making his first career start. It wasn’t all good as he lost two fumbles, but it was mostly good and certainly more good than bad. It was the first time in more than two seasons, Giants fans could feel good about their team and the future of their team, and it was the first time ever Giants fans could feel good about something Gettleman and Shurmur have ever done for the Giants. Though Shurmur would try to erase any goodwill he had for the day late in the game with weekly nonsensical challenge. (At least his failed challenge attempt was on a play that could actually be challenged. Progress!)
Jones’s memorable debut and the Giants’ first win of the season was made possible by Buccaneers kicker Matt Gay’s horrific game in which he missed two extra points and a would-be, game-winning 34-yarder. Without Gay’s awful day, the Giants would be 0-3 and it would have been another loss made possible by the Giants’ embarrassing defense, which was picked apart in the final minute of the game to set up Gay’s eventual miss. But instead of another crushing fourth-quarter loss, the Giants were finally on the right side of a time-expiring field-goal attempt.
The story today is Jones and should be after his impressive debut and his go-ahead, seven-yard touchdown run on fourth down with one minute and 16 seconds left in the game. But the story should also be the Giants’ defense, which allowed 499(!) yards and did everything it could to give away another game. It’s hard to look at the win in a positive light without recognizing it was completely gifted to them by Gay, and it’s hard to feel entirely good about it when the defense looked the worst it has all season, and continues to get worse rather than better as the season progresses. Overall, a win is a win, and when you record as few of them as the Giants have over the last two-plus seasons, you take them in any way you can get them, even if it’s because the opposing kicker missed two extra points and a 34-yarder to win the game.
The Giants won a game on a fourth down play Manning isn’t capable of making: a seven-yard run. They won a game they haven’t been fortunate enough to win in a while: on a missed field-goal attempt. They won a game, which is something they haven’t done much of for a long time. I want this to be the beginning of the Giants’ return to being competitive, but for that to happen, the defense is going to have to greatly improve, no matter how well Jones plays.
The third edition of the power rankings was supposed to be the last edition to figure out the postseason rotation, but there needs to be a fourth edition because there needs to be a fourth starter.
The first edition of the Yankees’ Postseason Rotation Power Rankings was on July 23. The second edition was on September 3. I wrote that the third edition on September 18 would be the last edition, but there now needs to be a fourth edition because there needs to be a fourth starter.
Game 1: Number 40, Luis Severino, Number 40 I love everything about Luis Severino. I love his demeanor and pace, his velocity and control, his command and attack of the strike zone. He throws a pitch the ball, gets the ball back and is immediately ready to throw the next pitch. He doesn’t waste time and puts each batter on defense for the entire at-bat. He’s a refreshing presence on the mound, and as close to a guaranteed win as you can get every five days for the Yankees.
I saw all I needed to see from Severino on Tuesday night in his season debut (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) to give him the ball in Game 1 of the postseason. Everything was working for him over four shutout innings and it was the exact kind of start the Yankees are looking for from each of their starters in the postseason: two times through the order or 12 outs, whichever comes first.
It doesn’t matter to me that Severino was facing an inferior opponent with a losing record, and one he won’t see in October. It was his first time on a major league mound since Game 3 of the ALDS and he looked like he hadn’t missed the first five-plus months of the season. Pitching under a limit of about 75-or-so pitches, that limited will be extended the next time Severino pitches (likely on Sunday against the Blue Jays) and extended again in his final regular-season start (Game 162 against in Texas). That would line him up on to pitch Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday, Oct. 4 on normal rest.
Like David Cone said on YES during Tuesday’s game, the Yankees don’t need to have Severino stretched out for something crazy like 120 pitches. They only need him to get 12 outs or throw however many pitches it takes to go through the order twice. He was able to do that on 67 pitches against the Angels, and 12 of them came in the first at-bat of the game.
Most likely, the Yankees are thinking the way I am given the way the schedule and calendar plays out and why Severino was brought back to start on Tuesday night. Back on July 23, in the first edition of these rankings, I wrote: It would be a lot easier if Luis Severino would return this season and return as his 2019 first-half self. My wish was granted. Severino in Game 1.
Game 2: Number 65, James Paxton, Number 65 After the first edition of these rankings, James Paxton went out and got rocked by the Red Sox (4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 4 HR) and his ERA rose to 4.72 on the season. But since getting embarrassed in Boston, Paxton hasn’t lost, winning nine straight for an undefeated August and September after the Yankees lost all five of his July starts.
Over this nine-game winning streak, opposing hitters are batting .170/.251/.282 against Paxton as he’s beaten the Red Sox twice, Indians and Dodgers along with the pesky offenses of the Rangers and Blue Jays. He’s looked like the pitcher I thought the Yankees traded for and not the pitcher who gave them four-plus months of mediocrity to begin the season.
In the first edition of the rankings, after he struggled through the first four months of the season, I wrote: He has two months to change my mind, and he has a lot to do in those two months to change it. Well, he’s changed it.
Earlier this season, YES showed an interview of Paxton talking about how he wants to be a Yankee and wants to pitch where he’s expected to win. He will have his chance to meet those expectations in Game 2.
Game 3: Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19 Twice I wrote: Masahiro Tanaka could pitch to a 15.10 ERA for the rest of the season and I would still give him the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS. Tanaka has proven his worth in the postseason in three different postseasons now with the worst of his five starts being two earned runs over five innings in a game the Yankees were never going to score in let alone win (2015 AL Wild-Card Game against Dallas Keuchel). But that was before the return of Severino and Paxton pitching to his ability for an extended period of time as a Yankee.
That doesn’t mean Tanaka can’t start Game 1 or that I would be upset if he did. I still trust him explicitly, even if advanced metrics suggest he’s been the same pitcher in the postseason as the regular season, with a little more luck, while his postseason success has been attributed to a small sample size.
Tanaka won’t be scared into melting down on the road and he won’t let the crowd or non-Yankee Stadium mound affect him. He’s proven himself on the road in October with strong starts against the eventual champions in each of the last two seasons. In the hostile postseason environments of Houston (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) and Boston (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR), Tanaka delivered, and I trust him in Game 3 to either finish a potential sweep of the series, swing the series in the Yankees’ favor or save the season (like he did in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS).
Game 4: Number 57, Chad Green, Number 57 Chad Green The Yankees have no choice other than to go with an opener as a starter in Game 4. Do you really want CC Sabathia or J.A. Happ starting? Not unless you’re the team opposing the Yankees in the postseason. Unfortunately, I could see the Yankees going with Happ as a regular starter or going with Sabathia for two innings before I could see them going with Green and using their entire bullpen for a full game, which is essentially what they did in the 2017 wild-card game.
Aside from the egg Green laid on August 15 against Cleveland (0.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HR), he’s been outstanding in the opener role. Only in three of his 14 “starts” has he allowed runs as the Yankees have gone 12-2 in games Green has opened.
My preference would be to have Green go one inning and maybe two innings depending on how he looked in the first inning. Then I would go right to the bullpen. Get 18-plus outs from Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Worry about the next game when you get there.
This season, Green has either been dominant or a disaster with very little in between. He’s either looked like he did in 2017 or given up a crooked number while only getting an out or two. The opener plan with Green starting the game is far from a guarantee, but there’s no such thing as a guarantee in the postseason.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!
The season has been filled with quarterback injuries, which has made an already hard job of picking games increasingly more difficult. That trends continues in Week 3.
I originally planned on going to Tampa this coming weekend to see the Giants play the Buccaneers on Sunday and then see the Yankees play the Rays during the week. But between the Giants being the worst team in the NFC and the Yankees preparing to use spring training lineups for the final two weeks of the season, it didn’t make sense to go all the way to Florida to watch my teams play meaningless games.
Then Wednesday happened and Pat Shurmur announced Daniel Jones as this week’s starting quarterback, effectively ending Eli Manning’s career. I don’t think Manning is going to be traded, and I don’t know that he would want to be, and he’s certainly not coming back next season, so Sunday’s loss was probably the last time we ever see Manning play for the Giants, barring an injury to Jones or meaningless garbage-time minutes between now and Week 17. Had I kept my trip to Tampa, I would have gotten to see the start of the Jones era and the first time a quarterback other than Manning had a future with the team in nearly 15 years.
Unfortunately, this is the right move for the Giants. They aren’t competitive and aren’t going to reach the postseason this year. I don’t know when any Giants fan can expect them to reach the postseason again. This season now has to be about the future, which it was always going to be about, no matter how much BS ownership, Dave Gettleman or Pat Shurmur spewed to the media in the offseason. It’s why the Giants should have either moved on from Manning before the draft, or committed to Manning, and used all of their draft picks to help the team win now. Instead, they tried to do a little bit of both and it’s led to an offense without any healthy and capable wide receivers, and a defense lacking a pass, secondary and the basic fundamentals of trying to prevent the other team from scoring.
The moment the Giants drafted Jones, Gettleman and Shurmur’s employment timer with the Giants began, and now that he’s actually going to play and has a potential 14 games to showcase his abilities in, that employment timer is going to pick up its pace. The general manager and head coach are tied to the success or failure of Jones, as is the entire organization, and if he proves to be an NFL quarterback over the next 15 weeks, they will keep their jobs. If he doesn’t, another duo, hopefully a better duo, will get to pick the future of the team at the 2020 draft.
It’s going to take the rest of the season to properly evaluate Jones as a potential franchise quarterback and determine whether or not the current front office made the right decision or if they wasted the sixth overall pick and an entire season, and unnecessarily ended the career of the best quarterback in franchise history. The Giants’ future begins on Sunday in Tampa. At least there’s a reason to watch for the rest of the season.
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Back-to-back 7-9 weeks to start the season isn’t great from a record standpoint, but is good enough to have survived the first weeks of the season and all of the quarterback injuries to stay afloat. Week 3 is a chance to get above .500 and stay above .500.
(Home team in caps)
JACKSONVILLE +2 over Tennessee It’s hard to put a lot of faith into Gardner Minishew, but the replacement for Nick Foles has been better than expected after taking over early in Week 1 and playing a full game in Week 2. It hasn’t translated into wins, as the Jaguars are 0-2, but at least the Jaguars have a serviceable option at quarterback and can at least expect to be competitive, unlike say, the Jets.
I expected big things out of the Titans this season, and after their Week 1 win over the Browns, I felt great about them. But then they laid an egg in their home opener in an expected low-scoring AFC South game, and I saw the usual .500-esque offense from the Titans, led by Marcus Mariota’s blah game.
I had a lot of fun rooting for, picking for and winning money on the Jaguars in their run to the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago, and I thought I was going to have similar fun this season with Foles as their quarterback and one of the league’s best defenses. That idea hasn’t gone according to plan, but there’s still time for it to happen, if the Jaguars can win this week. If not, their season’s over at 0-3.
NEW ENGLAND -23 over New York Jets I love the college line the Jets are getting this week and the Dolphins got last week and will continue to get.
If Sam Darnold had played on Monday night, the Jets would have won. The Browns were so underwhelming and Baker Mayfield looked so bad that had the Jets had even just a bad quarterback and not two awful options, they might have won. Instead, the Jets watched Trevor Siemian suffer a season-ending injury and then watched Luke Falk run a game plan in which nearly every pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage en route to their loss.
This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.
Cincinnati +6 over BUFFALO What a gift the Bills received from the NFL getting scheduled to open the season against two bad teams in the Jets and Giants on the road, in the same state, a short plane ride away to MetLife. The Bills are 2-0 as a result of getting to play against the shaky Jets and defenseless Giants and have already played 25 percent of their road schedule. Now with home games against Cincinnati and Miami within the next month, there’s a good chance the Bills could be at 5-3 or even 4-3 a month from now.
Except these are the Bills we’re talking about. If there’s a possibility to screw something up, they will screw it up. Having a Week 3 home game and their home opener against the Bengals seems like it can be counted as a W, but again, these are the Bills. The Bills were fortunate to play their first two games against teams which will most likely get to draft in the first five picks in 2020.
The Bengals did get blown out at by San Francisco last week, but held their own in Seattle the week before. I don’t think the Bengals are good or are going to necessarily win in Buffalo, but it’s hard to believe the Bills could be giving six points to any team, and it’s even harder to believe they will cover.
DALLAS -21.5 over Miami When the Dolphins start running plays on their opponent’s side of the field, I will start considering taking them to cover the massive spreads for their games, which are only going to grow in size as the season goes on. I don’t think Josh Rosen is going to get the chance he spoke about at the 2018 draft to make all the teams that passed on him regret passing on him.
GREEN BAY -8 over Denver This game will be used in teasers more than any other game in Week 3. That normally would be enough to scare me into taking the points, but not after watching Denver play at Oakland in Week 1.
INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Atlanta It’s possible the Jacoby Brissett Colts are just as good as the Andrew Luck Colts. They have played well in the first two weeks of the season and look as good as they did at the end of last year before losing to the Texans in a weird game in the postseason.
I know what the Falcons are and have made my reasons for continuing to pick against them and their head coach clear in previous picks blogs. I’m not about to go against my principles, especially when the Falcons have to go on the road and face a better, more well-rounded team.
KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Baltimore I need at least a touchdown to fall back on if I’m going to pick against the Chiefs.
MINNESOTA -9 over Oakland Last week, in reference to their successful Week 1 game plan, in which the Vikings only let Kirk Cousins throw the ball 10 times, I wrote: If the Vikings stick to their plan and don’t allow Cousins to ruin the game, they will be 2-0 and in first place in the NFC North. If they go back to what made them unsuccessful last year, they will be unsuccessful again. Well, Cousins threw the ball 32 times in Week 2, and what do you know, he threw two interceptions, fumbled the ball twice and lost one of the fumbles.
It’s impressive the Vikings only lost by five with the way Cousins played, and had anyone other than Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, they would be 2-0 this season. Had anyone other than Cousins been their quarterback last season, they probably would have won the NFC North and returned to the NFC Championship Game too. But the Vikings are stuck with Cousins, who is bad as it gets at throwing accurate passes and maintaining possession, and it’s hard to envision them going anywhere as long as he’s on the team.
Fortunately for the Vikings, they get the Raiders at home this week in what should be a rout. If it’s not, that should tell you all you need to know about this team’s chances with Cousins, as if there hasn’t been enough to tell you all you need to know since the start of last season.
PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Detroit The Eagles are dangerously close to being 0-2, but I guess most teams in the NFL are always dangerously close to having a completely opposite record. I know this because I’m a Giants fan who has watched them lose many games in recent years decided by three points or less and most games by seven points or less. At some point, the Eagles are going to look like a team expected to win the NFC East and compete for a second championship in three years. What better time to look like this team than at home agains the Lions.
ARIZONA 0 over Carolina I was upset with myself for picking the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 the second the Panthers offense took the field. The Panthers have one playmaker in their entire offense in Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers run nearly every single play through him. I have no idea how he’s going to be able to hold up for a lengthy career with the way he’s used in Carolina, but for now, the Panthers have no choice.
Cam Newton has drastically regressed since his 2015 MVP season and the only way the Panthers can be successful is by handing the ball off to McCaffrey or by throwing him a two- or-three-yard pass and hoping he can gain significant yards after the catch. It’s an easy offense and strategy to prepare for, and even the rookie-led Cardinals will be able to handle it.
TAMPA BAY -6.5 over New York Giants It doesn’t matter that Jameis Winston isn’t good because it doesn’t matter which quarterback plays against the Giants’ defense, they are going to get lit up. That the Giants are going on the road against a Bruce Arians offense in what will be the first start for Daniel Jones makes this a rather easy pick for me. A 16-year veteran could barely function without any NFL-worthy receivers. I’m sure a rookie debut in his NFL debut will do much better.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -3.5 over Houston The Chargers left the Pacific Time Zone, and unsurprisingly, they lost. A return home this week should return the real Chargers, who can only really be trusted in games played in California.
New Orleans +4 over SEATTLE Once upon a time, Teddy Bridgewater was the starting quarterback of the Vikings and led them to what should have been a postseason win over the Seahawks, if not for a Blair Walsh 27-yard field-goal attempt.
Since Bridgewater’s career-altering knee injury with the Vikings, the Vikings have traded away a first-round draft pick for Sam Bradford, only to have a 5-0 season end at 8-8, and they have turned to Case Keenum, who led them to within a win of the Super Bowl, only to move on from Keenum to give a guaranteed $84 million to Kirk Cousins, who is at best as good as Keenum.
The Vikings could have kept Bridgewater following his knee injury and eaten the money they would have been forced to pay him while he was injured and it would have been a whole lot less than the money they guaranteed to Cousins. Had Bridgewater not been able to make a comeback from his injury, the team could have stayed with Keenum as quarterback. They would have retained the first-rounder they gave away for Bradford and would have had a lot more salary-cap space available without Cousins. Since Bridgewater did make a comeback, he would be the quarterback, the offensive and defensive lines would have more money invested in them, and the Vikings would be better than they are currently and would have been better than they were last year as well.
I don’t like the Saints, but I love Bridgewater, and I’m rooting for him to make the Vikings’ front office continue to look foolish.
SAN FRANCISCO -6 over Pittsburgh The Steelers are headed toward a long, loss-filled season. The lines for their games are only going to grow in size as the season progresses. Get in on going against the Steelers before the lines get too high.
Los Angeles Rams -3 over CLEVELAND I picked against the Browns last week before it was announced the Jets would start Siemian. Unfortunately, the Jets were essentially quarterback-less on Monday night and gave away a winnable game. But my need for the Browns to lose and be losers with Odell Beckham on the team still exists.
Chicago -4 over WASHINGTON The Bears went into this season with Super Bowl aspirations. After two weeks, they don’t look like a playoff team, forget a championship contender. I don’t know how the Bears or Bears fan can believe in Mitch Trubisky, or how they can think they will ever win it all with him. Maybe Trubisky will greatly improve, and maybe the first weeks of the season will be looked back on as anomaly for this Bears season, but scoring three points at home in Week 1 and needing a time-expiring field goal to the beat the Broncos in Week 2 isn’t exactly promising.
I still believe in the Bears, because of their defense and because of their running game, but Week 3 is about as must-win as it gets with Minnesota (twice), New Orleans, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, Green Bay and Kansas City on their schedule.
There’s less than two weeks and only 10 games left in the regular season. Between now and then, the Yankees have to decide what their postseason rotation will be in order to line it up to end the season. Here is what the rotation should be.
There’s less than two weeks and only 10 games left in the regular season. Between now and then, the Yankees have to decide what their postseason rotation will be in order to line it up to end the season.
The first edition of the Yankees’ Postseason Rotation Power Rankings was on July 23. The second edition was on September 3. Barring an injury (knock on all the wood), this will be the last edition of the power rankings. Here’s my final decision on the postseason rotation.
Game 1: Number 40, Luis Severino, Number 40 I love everything about Luis Severino. I love his demeanor and pace, his velocity and control, his command and attack of the strike zone. He throws a pitch the ball, gets the ball back and is immediately ready to throw the next pitch. He doesn’t waste time and puts each batter on defense for the entire at-bat. He’s a refreshing presence on the mound, and as close to a guaranteed win as you can get every five days for the Yankees.
I saw all I needed to see from Severino on Tuesday night in his season debut (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) to give him the ball in Game 1 of the postseason. Everything was working for him over four shutout innings and it was the exact kind of start the Yankees are looking for from each of their starters in the postseason: two times through the order or 12 outs, whichever comes first.
It doesn’t matter to me that Severino was facing an inferior opponent with a losing record, and one he won’t see in October. It was his first time on a major league mound since Game 3 of the ALDS and he looked like he hadn’t missed the first five-plus months of the season. Pitching under a limit of about 75-or-so pitches, that limited will be extended the next time Severino pitches (likely on Sunday against the Blue Jays) and extended again in his final regular-season start (Game 162 against in Texas). That would line him up on to pitch Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday, Oct. 4 on normal rest.
Like David Cone said on YES during Tuesday’s game, the Yankees don’t need to have Severino stretched out for something crazy like 120 pitches. They only need him to get 12 outs or throw however many pitches it takes to go through the order twice. He was able to do that on 67 pitches against the Angels, and 12 of them came in the first at-bat of the game.
Most likely, the Yankees are thinking the way I am given the way the schedule and calendar plays out and why Severino was brought back to start on Tuesday night. Back on July 23, in the first edition of these rankings, I wrote: It would be a lot easier if Luis Severino would return this season and return as his 2019 first-half self. My wish was granted. Severino in Game 1.
Game 2: Number 65, James Paxton, Number 65 After the first edition of these rankings, James Paxton went out and got rocked by the Red Sox (4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 4 HR) and his ERA rose to 4.72 on the season. But since getting embarrassed in Boston, Paxton hasn’t lost, winning nine straight for an undefeated August and September after the Yankees lost all five of his July starts.
Over this nine-game winning streak, opposing hitters are batting .170/.251/.282 against Paxton as he’s beaten the Red Sox twice, Indians and Dodgers along with the pesky offenses of the Rangers and Blue Jays. He’s looked like the pitcher I thought the Yankees traded for and not the pitcher who gave them four-plus months of mediocrity to begin the season.
In the first edition of the rankings, after he struggled through the first four months of the season, I wrote: He has two months to change my mind, and he has a lot to do in those two months to change it. Well, he’s changed it.
Earlier this season, YES showed an interview of Paxton talking about how he wants to be a Yankee and wants to pitch where he’s expected to win. He will have his chance to meet those expectations in Game 2.
Game 3: Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19 Twice I wrote: Masahiro Tanaka could pitch to a 15.10 ERA for the rest of the season and I would still give him the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS. Tanaka has proven his worth in the postseason in three different postseasons now with the worst of his five starts being two earned runs over five innings in a game the Yankees were never going to score in let alone win (2015 AL Wild-Card Game against Dallas Keuchel). But that was before the return of Severino and Paxton pitching to his ability for an extended period of time as a Yankee.
That doesn’t mean Tanaka can’t start Game 1 or that I would be upset if he did. I still trust him explicitly, even if advanced metrics suggest he’s been the same pitcher in the postseason as the regular season, with a little more luck, while his postseason success has been attributed to a small sample size.
Tanaka won’t be scared into melting down on the road and he won’t let the crowd or non-Yankee Stadium mound affect him. He’s proven himself on the road in October with strong starts against the eventual champions in each of the last two seasons. In the hostile postseason environments of Houston (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) and Boston (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR), Tanaka delivered, and I trust him in Game 3 to either finish a potential sweep of the series, swing the series in the Yankees’ favor or save the season (like he did in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS).
Game 4: Number 55, Domingo German, Number 55 The only way I could be upset with the Yankees’ decision on their postseason rotation is if they decide to use Domingo German to follow either CC Sabathia or J.A. Happ. We know what Sabathia and Happ are at this point. We saw it last October when Happ couldn’t get an out in the third inning and Sabathia shouldn’t have been allowed to pitch the third inning. We saw it all season this year with Happ pitching to a 5.07 ERA and Sabathia closely following him with a 4.95 ERA.
Maybe these two are serviceable during the regular season because of the team’s offense and because of the amount of weak opponents not trying to be competitive they face over six months. But in October, against the league’s best with the current baseball flying out of the park, the Yankees can’t be sending either of the soft-tossing lefties to the mound with their only chance of success relying on their control being perfect on a given night.
It makes me sick, actually sick, to think about the Yankees shutting down German as a starter, putting him in the bullpen or having him follow either of those two. He’s earned himself a postseason start and has earned the right to pitch in October, no matter what ridiculous or nonsensical innings limit or preventative measure the Yankees think will work in keeping him healthy long-term.
Give German the ball in Game 4, and if he unravels, then turn to Sabathia or Happ. Not the other way around.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!
After another disappointing loss, the Giants’ season is now over, and there’s no reason not to play Daniel Jones instead of Eli Manning.
The feeling I had when the Giants’ scored on their first offensive drive of the season wasn’t replicated when they did the same in Week 2. I knew better than to think the Giants had completely changed in a week and were going to keep scoring or prevent the Bills from scoring. I have seen many Giants games in recent years begin the same way they have the first two weeks of this season and have seen many Giants games end the same way they have the first two week of this season as well.
The Giants lost 28-14, but had their chances to get back into the game and possibly tie or even win it. They had a chance to complete a two-touchdown comeback late in the game like they used to when they were a competitive team.
Trailing by seven in the fourth quarter, the Giants were a defensive stop away from getting the ball back and trying to tie the game. Instead of a stop, the Giants’ defense gave its usual late-game performance, the kind of performance which got Tom Coughlin fired and pushed Ben McAdoo out the door, and will end Eli Manning’s career. Needing a stop, the Giants’ defense gave up a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown, which ate up six minutes and three seconds, and included a crucial third-down conversion on the Giants’ 40 for 17 yards. But the most Giants part of it all was that the Bills originally had to settle for a 21-yard field goal on the drive before a personal foul on the Giants on the field-goal attempt gave the Bills a first down and an eventual touchdown. Whether it was a penalty or not (and according to Gene Steratore, it wasn’t), the Giants weren’t going to come back and win the game even if the Bills had only extended their lead to 10.
The loss had a little bit of everything for frustrated Giants fans. There were the back-to-back drives after the game-opening touchdown in which the Giants gained one yard total. There was the missed 48-yard field goal from Aldrick Rosas. There was the interception thrown by Manning near the end of the first half, which came immediately after the Giants’ defense forced one of the only punts they will force all season. There was the turnover on downs (the Giants third of the season) in the fourth quarter. There was that long Bills drive, which first resulted in a field goal and then a touchdown to all but seal the win for Bills, and there was another Manning interception late in the fourth quarter, which ended the game. And the game wasn’t without a Pat Shurmur blunder either as the mostly-lost Giants head coach tried to challenge a play which can’t be challenged, which now seems to be a weekly bit he does.
It was a textbook Giants loss as they gave Giants fans encouragement to begin the game then made them question why they even watch or care about the team before reeling them back in one last time only to break their heart late in the fourth quarter. I feel bad for the Giants fans who went through that gauntlet of emotions on Sunday. I have gone through it many times, but I’m now immune to it after having no expectations for this season.
Mathematically, the 2019 Giants are done. They are finished. After Sunday’s disappointing loss, the Giants have now started 0-2 in six of the last seven seasons. Everyone knows the history of 0-2 teams and reaching the playoffs, and it’s that they rarely every do, which means in six of the last seven years, the Giants’ season was effectively over in mid-September from an odds perspective. Those odds have held up for the Giants as they have missed the playoffs in the previous five seasons in which they started as 0-2 and they are by no means going to the postseason this year.
The only good that can come from this season now is that Daniel Jones plays and proves to be a franchise-caliber quarterback. That’s it. If he doesn’t then this entire season was a waste and can’t be considered a rebuilding year. If Jones doesn’t work out, the Giants are no better than the Browns were for many years: a team without a plan.
The Giants won’t know what Jones is until he plays, and there’s no reason not to play him now. The season is over, and with Manning in the final year of his contract, he doesn’t have a future with the Giants. As a Manning supporter and fan, it’s unfortunate it had to come down to this, but when you’re given the surrounding pieces Manning was for this season (and for most of his career), it was always going to end this way, in midseason with Manning standing on the sideline.
