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Author: Neil Keefe

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Clint Frazier Needs Both His Bat and Mouth to Talk for His Defense

Clint Frazier’s bat is too good to give up on because of his defense and because he went out the back door of the clubhouse one night. The Yankees need his bat and they need him to improve defensively.

Since the day the Yankees traded Andrew Miller and received Clint Frazier in return, I have been fearful Frazier would get a full-time major league opportunity and realize his potential with a team other than the Yankees. Between the Yankees’ full roster and lineup, owed salary to established and veteran players, potential trades for starting pitching and Frazier’s own injuries, there has always seemed like too many obstacles in his way of becoming an everyday player for the Yankees.

This season, Frazier has once again been given a chance to prove his worth at the major league level and show off the “legendary bat speed” Brian Cashman has raved about since acquiring the outfielder. Due to injuries to Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, Frazier has been a regular in the lineup and outside of a quick trip to the injured list for a sprained ankle he initially played through and wanted to keep playing through (I commended him for not wanting to go on the injured list), Frazier has performed … at the plate. He’s hit 10 home runs in 41 games, a 40-home run pace over 162 games, and is batting .272/.319/.517. He’s single-handedly won games for the Yankees with his bat and nearly did so again on Tuesday night when his two-run home run in Toronto felt like it might be the difference until Masahiro Tanaka had what’s becoming a routine letdown and meltdown inning in the middle of each start. Offense isn’t the problem with Frazier and never has been. The defense is another story.

Early in the season, Frazier made some questionable dive attempts and looked uncomfortable playing left field in Houston. It was understandable for someone with less than a half season of major league experience to his name playing with the weird, quirky dimensions of MinuteMaid Park and the extremely close left-field wall, which feels like it’s on top of the infield. But over the last couple months, the Houston mishaps have proven to not be an anomaly, but the norm for Frazier, who frequently misreads, misjudges and misplays balls no matter which outfield corner he’s in. It’s unbelievable to think the Yankees trusted him to play center field for an entire game last season.

On Sunday Night Baseball, Frazier had the worst defensive game of his life, and it all unfolded in one inning against the Red Sox on national TV. Some have blamed Frazier for single-handedly losing the game, but I don’t, since the Yankees were already losing when his most egregious error happened, and he didn’t fail to catch any truly catchable balls, he just misplayed what were already hits. If you want to blame someone for the Red Sox’ 3-2 lead increasing to 8-2, blame Luis Cessa who was the one throwing batting practice.

The embarrassing seventh inning was only the second worst part of Frazier’s night. After the game, he decided to leave the Stadium without addressing his performance to the media. Again, he wasn’t the reason the Yankees lost the game, but in New York, if Reliever X gives up five runs in the ninth inning and then leaves the bases loads for Reliever Y, and Reliever Y comes in and throws one pitch, resulting in a walk-off grand slam, the media wants to talk to Reliever Y even if Reliever X was to blame for the loss. Because Frazier’s defensive mistakes were so obvious the media waited for him, while Cessa was able to get dressed and go unbothered, despite retiring only three of the nine batters he faced and giving up five earned runs as he continues to prove he has no place on this team.

Frazier could have stood in the clubhouse and talked about how he is working tirelessly before every game with Judge and Reggie Willits to become a better outfielder. He could talk about how he knows he has to be better and that his defense has been embarrassing and unacceptable. It would have taken a few minutes for him to act like a major leaguer and hold himself accountable and then that would be that. Some stories and blogs would be written about his defense and some angry sports radio callers would shout about wanting to trade him for a rental pitcher and that would be that. Instead, Frazier chose to leave the Stadium, let his teammates answers for his defensive lapses and turned a story about his poor defense into one about his character, personality and demeanor as a person, player and professional.

After the story got out that Frazier didn’t speak with the media, the off day for the Yankees only let the story build steam. On sports radio and social media, no one was talking about Cessa’s latest letdown, the Yankees failing to really destroy the Red Sox’ season with a sweep or the Yankees’ need of Dallas Keuchel. No one was even really talking about Frazier’s defense. The conversation was now about unmeasurable traits with people voicing their opinion on Frazier as if they know him as a person or have any sort of relationship with him other than watching him play baseball every night. According to the general public, the Yankees could either bench Frazier (which would give more at-bats to Brett Gardner, Cameron Maybin or Kendrys Morales) send Frazier down (which would do the same as benching him) or trade him for a rental starter (because you should always jettison a 24-year-old with middle-of-the-order potential for not speaking with the media, especially when his reputation and stock are an all-time low).

Frazier did make himself available to speak with the media before Tuesday night’s game, and I’m sure he was properly prepared by Cashman, Jason Zillo (Yankees Vice President of Communications and Media Relations) and Aaron Boone. But Cashman, Zillo and Boone wouldn’t be able to hold Frazier’s hand in front of the media, all they could was trust Frazier would apologize and put an end to the story. I’m sure Zillo wasn’t thrilled when Frazier opened his mouth.

“No, I don’t regret it,” Frazier said. “And to be fair, I don’t think I owe anyone an explanation, because it’s not a rule that I have to speak.”

Frazier could have stepped up and realized he will never win a war with the media or fans and apologized for not doing his part as a major leaguer, which is stated in Section 7 of the collectively bargained Major League Baseball Players Association’s media guidelines, which states, “It is very important to our game that ALL players are available to the media for reasonable periods and it is the player’s responsibility to cooperate.” He had a chance to make things right, and he did somewhat, but he also doubled down on his decision to skip out on addressing his Sunday night performance.

“The plays were what they were,” Frazier said. “I sucked.”

See how easy that was? Had Frazier opened with that or had just said that on Sunday night, this situation doesn’t exist.

“I lost us the game,” Frazier said. “Everyone knew what I did wrong, and that’s what it came down to.”

Look how easy this is! New York fans love when players admit they sucked and ruined a game! Though Frazier didn’t lose the game, as I said earlier. What he did during the game wasn’t wrong, it was unfortunate and unexpected. What he did after the game is what was wrong.

Frazier then made amends with his teammates for his Irish exit from the Stadium, which led to them answering questions on his behalf.

“I don’t want them to have to speak for me, but I also want to be on the same page as everyone in there,” Frazier said. “I should have been standing in front of my locker.”

Just as things were going well, and the media and some of its entitled members felt like the major leaguer had given a worthy apology, Frazier started to spiral out of control, going back on his word and taking things in an unexpected direction. Somewhere, Zillo was probably trying to have the power turned off in Rogers Centre in Toronto.

“Since I got traded over here, it’s been some stories that came out that shouldn’t have came out,” Frazier said. “And it’s difficult, because the way that I’m perceived by people is not how I think that I really am. I don’t feel like it’s been fair at times, and I don’t owe an apology for not talking.”

The Yankees go through media training during spring training and I have to think the first rule is to talk about the game, not yourself. It makes for cookie-cutter and cliché answers for the media and fans, but the Yankees don’t give a crap how it sounds as long as they don’t have an unnecessary PR nightmare to deal with. Frazier was about to give them that nightmare, using the perception of him as a player, stories written about him by the media and comments made by broadcasters as some sort of excuse for his disappearing act on Sunday. He had quickly taken back his apology, using his treatment since becoming a Yankee as the reason why.

Zillo was either drinking scotch directly from the bottle at this point or an ambulance was being called to assist him. Frazier had gone off the handle, talking about things in no way related to him playing right field like he’s drunk and then not talking about it immediately after the game.

“I know I don’t fit the mold of what some of the past and current Yankees are like, and that may be why it’s a little harder for me to navigate every day, and I’m trying to be myself here,” Frazier said. “And sometimes it feels like people have an issue with me just being myself.”

Can someone give me an update on the health status of Zillo? Frazier could have stopped at saying he sucked and his teammates shouldn’t have to answer for him. But he kept going and going and going and now his media absence had become about him possibly being forced to cut his hair like every other Yankee since George Steinbrenner purchased the team in 1973 or potentially because he has red hair, which not many people, let alone Yankees have. Either that or he was upset the right-field bleachers turned on him on Sunday night after his outfield play as if he’s the first Yankee to ever be ridiculed by the home crowd for a poor performance?

“It’s been difficult, it’s been hard,” Frazier said. “My entire life, I’ve always kind of been different and struggled to hit in because people perceive me a certain way. It was, whenever I was younger, the only thing that I felt like kept me relevant was baseball.”

Seriously, someone give me an update on Zillo! Frazier was going even deeper. All anyone wanted was for Frazier to say what he said at the beginning and that was enough. Somehow him playing the outfield poorly and not answering questions about it turned into a conversation about him not fitting in his whole life. All I want from Frazier is to not dive for uncatchable balls and to prevent balls that hit the outfield grass from rolling to the wall. That’s all I want. Not this mess.

This is officially a mess, and unfortunately, it’s not going anywhere. During Tuesday’s game on social media, baseball reporters from all markets were chiming in to call out Frazier for not showing up on Sunday and then for giving a half-hearted apology and taking that heart-hearted apology back. One ESPN reporter went so far as to tweet a picture of Frazier approaching the dugout after his two-run home run, saying his teammates looked like they weren’t celebrating with him. I know where this is going. Frazier’s defense will now be watched extra carefully and any miscue will be magnified, the way Gary Sanchez’s passed balls and hustle are, and Frazier’s relationships in the clubhouse will be speculated upon after he let his teammates answer for him.

Frazier’s bat is too good and valuable to give up on because of his defense and because he went out the back door of the clubhouse one night. The Yankees need his bat and they need him to improve defensively because Gardner’s abilities are no longer those of an everyday player, and next year the Yankees are going to need to fill the void left by Gardner. (Unless they decide to once again re-sign him to a one-year deal in the first minute of free agency.) Frazier has the chance to earn an everyday spot on the Yankees for the rest of this season and future seasons and only his play should determine that. Hopefully, only his play will determine that.

I believe in Frazier and want to see him succeed as a Yankee the way I always have, though his defense will need to improve for that to happen. For now, his bat can do the talking for him on the field, as long as his mouth is there when needed to do it off the field.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!


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There’s No Reason the Yankees Shouldn’t Sign Dallas Keuchel

All Dallas Keuchel will cost the Yankees is money. Just money. It’s something the Yankees make more of than any team in the league and something they used to use to their advantage.

The Yankees are in first place in the AL East. They got there because of the performance of their elite relievers, MVP-like seasons from Gary Sanchez and DJ LeMahieu and timely hitting from the long list of Replacement Yankees which have appeared in games. The starting pitching has played a very limited role in the team’s success.

The Yankees have played 58 games or 36 percent of their season. In those 58 games, they have received only 20 “quality starts” (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less) and their starting pitcher has pitched at least six innings only 22 times. That’s a problem. A huge problem.

The Yankees’ formula for winning is to get five innings from their starter and let the best bullpen in baseball get the final 12 outs of the game. This formula prevents the opposition from seeing the Yankees’ starter for a third time and welcomes them with fastballs around triple digits from every reliever along with the ridiculous slider of Aroldis Chapman, the unhittable curveball of Dellin Betances, the never-ending arsenal of sliders from Adam Ottavino, the impossible-to-get-under sinker of Zack Britton and the disappearing changeup of Tommy Kahnle. But this is really the Yankees’ formula for winning in the postseason. It can’t be used day in and day out in the regular season or it won’t work when it’s needed most.

The Yankees’ starting pitching length problem doesn’t just mean more appearances from the untrustworthy arms of Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Luis Cessa, Nestor Cortes, David Hale and whichever future average arms the Yankees call up throughout the season. It means more appearances from Kahnle, Britton, Ottavino, eventually Betances and Chapman. It means the formula will be less effective in the postseason.

Even if the Yankees were getting substantial length from their starters, they would still need Keuchel between the lingering injuries, injury histories and workloads of their rotation.

Masahiro Tanaka’s career starts per season: 20, 24, 31, 30 and 27. Thankfully, the 2014 elbow tear, which led to every member of the New York media suddenly holding a medical degree and private orthopedic surgery practice telling Tanaka to get surgery, hasn’t really emerged since. But even without the presence of the elbow tear, which has felt like a dark cloud following the Yankees for almost five years, Tanaka always eventually needs an extra day of rest or ends up on the injured list for some a non-elbow related injury.

James Paxton has never made more than 28 starts and has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in a season. Those two career highs both came last year. So not only does Paxton have a long history of various injuries and significant disabled list and injured list time, he’s coming off the largest workload of his career. He’s already been on the injured list once in two months as a Yankee for a knee injury, an injury he claims is still present and one he plans on pitching through.

Domingo German, a former Tommy John recipient who missed all of 2015, has thrown 64 innings this season. Since his surgery, he threw 49 2/3 innings in the minors in 2016, 123 2/3 innings between the majors and minors in 2017 and 94 innings last season between the majors and minors. The Yankees believe they have innings limits and pitching injury prevention down to a science, which is comical given the long list of injuries this season, and there is a secret number of innings they are going to allow German to throw this season. He’s already 30 innings away from his total across all levels last season and maybe his last two starts were just bad outings or maybe they were an indication he’s hitting a wall due to his early-season total. Either way, German isn’t going to be a full-season member of the rotation whether he’s healthy or not.

J.A. Happ is healthy, he’s just been inconsistent and easily the worst member of the rotation. He’s actually been good against every team that’s not the last-place, historically-bad Orioles, who he’s somehow allowed 15 earned runs against in 17 2/3 innings over four starts. But even in his non-Orioles starts, Happ has only reached six innings pitched in half of them. The 36-year-old has pitched like a 36-year-old this season, and while health has never been a concern with him, performance now is.

CC Sabathia managed to achiee a quality start against the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball and every Yankees fans would sign up for six innings and three earned runs in every Sabathia start. The problem is getting six innings from him isn’t realistic. He’s reached six innings in two of nine starts this season and did so in only 11 of 29 starts last season. Aside from the five-and-fly outings from Sabathia, his ongoing knee issue isn’t magically going away in his final season, and it’s already forced him to the injured list once this season and will again at least once within the next four months since his trips to the injured list are now planned.

Supposedly, Luis Severino has been pain free for a few weeks and is set to begin a throwing program. He will essentially need to be built back up as if it were the start of spring training leading up to the start of the season. Couple that with the fact Severino is the face and both immediate and long-term future of the rotation, who recently signed a four-year, $40 million extension, and the Yankees are going to take is extra slow with him. Severino jumped from 151 1/3 total innings in 2016 to 209 1/3 innings in 2017 and then another 198 1/3 innings in 2018. It’s not exactly a surprise he had a shoulder and subsequent lat injury in spring training. But if Severino started his throwing program today, you’re looking at a return sometime near the end of July. We’re at the point where one more setback will likely mean he won’t pitch for the Yankees this season. While it’s fun to think about how good the first-place Yankees will be when they get their ace back, we’re a long way from seeing him pitching for the Yankees this season.

With Jonathan Loaisiga injured, the Yankees’ plan for starts outside of these pitchers is to use an “opener” or a “bullpen game” to get by. That means some combination of Green, Cessa, Cortes and Hale. That’s no way to put yourself in the best position to win the division for the first time in seven years.

No, the Yankees won’t be getting the 2015 AL Cy Young version of Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA) or the 2017 All-Star version (14-5, 2.90 ERA) if they sign the free-agent left-hander. All they need is the 2018 version (12-11, 3.74 ERA), and they might not even need that. They just need a reliable, experienced arm to take the ball every five days, which is something their depth lacks right now.

The Yankees didn’t want to spend the money to sign Patrick Corbin? Fine. (Well, not fine actually.) They didn’t want to spend the money to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? Fine. They didn’t want to give out a long-term deal or lose their first-round draft pick to sign Keuchel? Fine. Well, now they don’t have to give Keuchel a long-term deal or lose their first-round draft pick to sign him.

All Keuchel will cost the Yankees is money. Just money. It’s something the Yankees make more of than any team in the league and something they used to use to their advantage. This is the first true season in the current window of opportunity to win a championship with these Yankees and they have a glaring weakness which can be resolved with cash right now. Within the next two months from now, they will no longer be able to fix it with only money and will have to further dismantle their farm system to solidify their starting pitching.

The 2017 Yankees refrained from trading for Justin Verlander because they were scared off by the money owed to him. So he went to the Astros and was the difference in the ALCS, beating the Yankees in Games 1 and 6 en route to winning the World Series.

The 2018 Yankees, coming off a season in which they came within one win of the World Series, decided to cut payroll by $50 million and wouldn’t pull the trigger on an offseason trade for Gerrit Cole. The Astros traded for Cole and wound up in the ALCS. The Red Sox and Dodgers went out and spent more money than any other team and wound up in the World Series.

If the Yankees aren’t willing to spend money in this situation, I don’t know when they ever will be. The players have done their part, climbing to the top of the AL East despite all the injuries and now it’s up to the front office to reward them for their performance by signing Keuchel.

If the Yankees end up losing the division to the Rays and end up in the wild-card game for the fourth time in five seasons, drastically decreasing their chances to advance to the ALDS and eventually the World Series, because of starting pitching, they will forever regret the decision to not use their wallet to resolve this issue the way I’m sure they regret not doing so the last two seasons.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

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Off Day Dreaming: Another Series, Another Series Win for the Yankees

Another series, another series win. That’s what the 2019 Yankees do and I can’t tell you how good it feels. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees’ first of four scheduled off days in June.

Another series, another series win. That’s what the 2019 Yankees do and I can’t tell you how good it feels to see consistent separation from .500 for their record and increased separation from the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East standings.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees’ on the first of four scheduled off days in June.

1. The AL East is now a two-team race. The Yankees took out of three from the Red Sox over the weekend to eliminate them from the division. If you’re thinking, “It’s June 3!” or “There’s over 100 games left!” then think about this math.

The Yankees are 38-20 and have 104 games left. The Red Sox are 30-29 and have 103 games left. If the Yankees were to play .500 baseball the rest of the season (52-52), they would finish with 90 wins. The Red Sox would have to go 60-43 just to tie them in that scenario. But the Yankees aren’t going to play .500 baseball over 104 games. Not when they’re about to get Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Dellin Betances and eventually Luis Severino back. Let’s say the Yankees played .600 baseball for the rest of the season (and they will most likely play even better). They would finish 100-62, the Red Sox would then need to go 70-33. Like I said, the division is over for the Red Sox.

So now the Yankees can focus on the team I have said all season long they need to worry about: the Rays. It’s between the Yankees and Rays for the AL East and the loser of the two will end up in the wild-card game. I can’t take a fourth wild-card game in five years.

2. DJ LeMahieu is the closest thing the Yankees have had to Derek Jeter since Derek Jeter and the “DJ” is a great coincidence. His contact approach at the plate is refreshing as he’s now batting .311/.361/.450 and his Gold Glove defense in the field, especially at second base, is astonishing. After a few years of Brian Roberts, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Rob Refsnyder, Starlin Castro and Gleyber Torres as a rookie, you forget just how good second base defense looks.

I’m sure LeMahieu will get screwed when everyone is back and sent to near the bottom of the order, so Aaron Hicks can bat leadoff for reasons I will never understand. But for as long as LeMahieu continues to bat at the top of the order and play everyday, I will enjoy watching him.

3. It’s obvious the Yankees are going to keep treating Aaron Hicks like he’s Bernie Williams, even if he’s never really done anything to deserve the kind of treatment he gets. Hicks continues to bat second or third or fourth in the lineup, ahead of someone like Gleyber Torres, based off a couple good months in 2017 and 2018, and when everyone is back, I’m sure they will put him in the leadoff spot. That’s what this team needs: more at-bats for Hicks!

Here is how I would fill out the lineup card when everyone is back:

LeMahieu
Judge
Sanchez
Voit
Stanton
Torres
Gregorius
Hicks
Gardner

Here is how Aaron Boone and the Yankees front office (since no one knows who actually manages the team) will most likely fill out the lineup card when everyone is back:

Hicks
Judge
Gregorius
Stanton
Voit
Sanchez
Torres
LeMahieu
Gardner

4. The Clint Frazier in right field experiment needs to end. If Frazier is going to play right field like he’s drunk then he better have an OPS around 1.000. With two more misplayed balls on Sunday night, one of which was downright embarrassing, the Yankees have to have seen enough to keep putting him out there. If you want Frazier’s bat in the lineup then he either needs to play left field where he is less of a disaster or be the team’s designated hitter. Fortunately, Frazier’s miscues against the Red Sox didn’t lead to any runs which weren’t going to score anyway with the way Luis Cessa was pitching, but at some point he’s going to single-handedly lose the Yankees a game out there if they let him.

5. Luis Cessa isn’t good. The only reason he’s on the Yankees is because he’s out of options, and for some reason, the Yankees are scared to lose him. Sunday night was a perfect situation for him with no lead to protect, just a deficit to not let increase. He didn’t get any defensive help from Frazier in right field, but the balls Frazier misplayed were still going to be hits. Here was Cessa’s night as he faced nine batters and retired only three of them:

Walk
Groundout
Single
Single
Popout
Single
Groundout
Double
Single

After pitching well for most of April, Cessa has reverted back to the same old guy the Yankees are unsure what to do with. Cessa isn’t good enough to start, he’s not overpowering or trustworthy enough to be a back-end reliever and now he’s proven he’s not really a long-man either. So he’s a mop-up duty guy? Since April 29, he’s allowed earned runs in five of nine appearances and his ERA and WHIP for the season are now 4.72 and 1.425 WHIP. It’s time to give someone else a chance in Cessa’s “role”. If the Yankees try to pass him through waivers and he gets claimed, so be it. Maybe another AL team will pick him up and the Yankees can get some of the runs back against him in a future matchup to make up for all the runs he has given up as a Yankee.

6. CC Sabathia had his routine trip to the injured list for his ongoing knee issue and returned to start against the Red Sox on Sunday night. His line: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. It was actually better than I expected from Sabathia against the Red Sox, considering their right-handed heavy lineup.

A “quality start” is all I ever expect from Sabathia at this point and it’s more important he gets the additional three outs and refrains from only getting through five since it’s clear the Yankees are going to avoid using their elite relievers at all costs.

7. I’m not sure when I will stop mocking anyone who thought Gary Sanchez should be benched in favor of Austin Romine or anyone who wanted to trade Sanchez for J.T. Realmuto or any other player. I don’t think I will ever stop giving it those fans and I don’t think I should. They deserve it.

Sanchez now has an AL-leading 18 home runs and a .995 OPS and his defense is back to being what it was prior to 2018. He showed off his cannon-like arm on Friday night, picking Eduardo Nunez off at second base for an important out just when it looked like J.A. Happ might blow the Yankees’ two-run lead.

Sanchez is amazing and I’m glad everyone is remembering that now after last season.

8. Chad Green will most likely never return to his 2017 self, but the Yankees are going to keep giving him chances to.

Green has now had three scoreless outings in a row (3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K) following an opener and two relief appearances. The late life on his fastball has reemerged in those outings and he looks to betting the swings and misses he got two years ago. I still don’t trust him and I won’t for a while after what he was saw through his first 15 appearances this season. But he seems to be headed in the right direction, and the better he gets, the less chance there is of seeing Holder in a high-leverage situation.

9. I have always thought Alex Rodriguez was OK at in-game analysis and much better at studio analysis, but after Sunday night’s performance, he’s no longer even OK at in-game analysis.

In analyzing the idiotic baserunning which ended the Yankees’ fourth-inning threat, A-Rod said, “I love that play by Aaron Boone.” No one knew if it was even a play or a missed sign or Torres just nonsensically taking off for second, which then forced Hicks to take off for home, but it took the bat out of Frazier’s hands with the tying run on third base and two outs. If it was a play, it was ridiculously dumb, and shouldn’t be praised.

Later in the game, A-Rod credited the Red Sox for putting pressure on the Yankees and Alex Cora’s team approach to hitting for the balls Frazier misplayed. There was no pressure involved and no special hitting approach which led to Frazier misreading two balls as if he were playing right field in a Central Park beer league.

A-Rod needs to be in the studio where he has time to prepare and explain why something happened. When he’s on the spot, his answers are rather out there.

10. My May expected record for the Yankees was 17-12, but after a couple rainouts, they only played 27 games, going 20-7, three wins better than I asked for.

My expected record for them for June is 15-11. They are already 1-1, so they need to go 14-10 to match it. That would give them a record of 52-30 after the London trip.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

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Yankees Can End Red Sox’ Division Chances This Weekend

Last August, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by 5 1/2 games when they went to Boston for a four-game series. It was the Yankees’ last chance to put a dent into the deficit and

Last August, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by 5 1/2 games when they went to Boston for a four-game series. It was the Yankees’ last chance to put a dent into the deficit and they needed to win at least three out of four and cut their games back to 3 1/2 before the final 52 games of the season. Anything less than three out of four and it would be back to the one-game playoff for the second year in a row and third time in four years.

The Yankees were without Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez for the series, and J.A. Happ, who they had just traded for mainly because of his career and season success against the Red Sox, wouldn’t pitch over the weekend after getting sick with a rare illness. Despite the lack of Judge and Sanchez in the lineup, the Yankees opened the Thursday night game with three runs in the first and another in the second for an early 4-0 lead. But CC Sabathia didn’t have it and Aaron Boone waited too long to realize he didn’t have it and wasn’t going to find it. In relief of Sabathia, Jonathan Holder pooped his pants on the mound at Fenway Park as he faced seven batters and didn’t retire one of them. The Yankees lost 15-7 and trailed by 6 1/2 games.

The next day, Rick Porcello pitched a complete-game one-hitter. The Yankees lost 4-1 and trailed by 7 1/2 games.

The two losses in the first two games of the series essentially ended the Yankees’ chances at the division, but just for good measure, they were shut out for eight innings by former Yankee bust Nathan Eovaldi in the third game of the series in what would be another 4-1 loss. In the series finale on Sunday Night Baseball, the series and Yankees’ division chances hit rock bottom when Aroldis Chapman blew a three-run, ninth-inning lead with three walks and a single coupled with a Miguel Andujar error. The Yankees would lose in the 10th after Jonathan Holder gave up a single, wild pitch, intentional walk and game-winning single, all with two outs, essentially pooping his pants on the Fenway Park mound for the second time in roughly 72 hours. The Yankees lost 5-4, were swept in the four games and left Boston four games worse than they arrived, trailing by 9 1/2 games in the division with 52 to play.

The Yankees’ inability to win the division forced them to play one game to reach the ALDS, use Luis Severino in that one game, then go to Boston for the first two games of the ALDS and face a rested Red Sox team, which was able to coast for the last two months of the season, and a rested Chris Sale, as the Red Sox were able to line up their rotation for the Yankees. Had the Yankees won the division, maybe the Red Sox lose the one-game playoff to the A’s or maybe they have to fly across the country to Oakland for the one-game playoff and then fly back across the country to New York for the ALDS. Either as the first or second wild card, the Red Sox would have had to burn Sale in the one game and wouldn’t have been able to use him until Game 3 and then would have only been able to start him once in the five-game series. Unfortunately, none of this happened.

Maybe the 2018 Red Sox would have won the World Series whether or not the Yankees won the division and whether or not Aaron Boone managed Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS like he had been introduced to the game of baseball earlier that week. The Yankees had their chances to stay in the division race and win it, but they didn’t take care of business against awful opponents, which the Red Sox did, they didn’t show up with the season on the line in Boston, which the Red Sox did. That was the difference in 2018, not the injuries or the Red Sox being some sort of team of destiny.

This season has been different. The Yankees have used a replacement roster the entire season, haven’t had Luis Severino, Dellin Betances or Didi Gregorius for a single game, have had Giancarlo Stanton for three games, haven’t had Aaron Judge since Easter weekend, didn’t have Aaron Hicks for the first six weeks of the season, lost Miguel Andujar to season-ending surgery and have watched Gary Sanchez, Clint Frazier, James Paxton and now CC Sabathia all land on the injured list at some point. The Yankees’ starters have gotten hurt, their backups have gotten hurt and their backups’ backups have gotten hurt. Yet somehow, they are in first place in the AL East with a 36-19 record and plus-74 run differential. They have two more wins than the Rays, but are tied with the Rays in the loss column, and they lead the Red Sox by eight in the loss column.

The 2019 Yankees’ success has been built on their ability to rack up wins against teams under .500 (23-9) and play good enough against teams .500 or better (13-10). It’s the formula that led to their success in the ’90s and 2000s, and one they have been trying to get back to in recent years. It’s the same formula which led to the Red Sox’ division title last season.

The AL East is a three-team race this season. It would have been one last season too if there had been any games left as the 90-win Rays became unbeatable late in the season. This year, the Rays didn’t wait to put it all together, they started winning on Opening Day and haven’t stopped since. The last thing the Yankees want to be part of is a three-team race, in which one team is headed for the ALDS and the runner-up and possibly also second-runner up are headed to the one-game playoff. I’ve had enough of the one-game playoff over the last four seasons, and I don’t want the first season in this current championship window to have to go through one.

The goal is to win the division, and the easiest way to outlast the Rays and Red Sox is to first turn the three-team race into a two-team race. Force the weaker team into the wild-card picture and worry about scoreboard watching one opponent throughout the regular season. The Yankees’ and Rays’ hot starts combined with the Red Sox’ disastrous start have made it possible for the Yankees to turn the AL East race into a two-team race as early as this weekend. The Yankees can do to the Red Sox what the Red Sox did to them in a four-game series last year, just much earlier in the season.

The Yankees’ eight-game lead over the Red Sox in the loss column through 55 games is shocking. I never expected the 2019 Red Sox to win the way the 2018 Red Sox did since I never expected the 2018 Red Sox to win the way they did, but I certainly didn’t see them battling to stay above .500 after two months. The Yankees have a chance to end the Red Sox’ division chances over the next four days.

As of now, the Yankees are on pace to win 106 games and they are getting closer to getting Gregorius, Judge and Stanton back in the lineup, Betances in the bullpen and Severino in the rotation. For as good as they have been, they are about to get deeper and better. The Red Sox are on pace to win 84 games, which won’t last, but even if it did, you can’t fault them. They won the World Series last year. They earned the right to have a down year.

If the Yankees played one-game-over-.500 baseball for the rest of the season (54-53), they would finish with 90 wins. The Red Sox would have to go 61-45 just to tie them in that scenario. The Red Sox would have to play .575 baseball for the rest of the season if the Yankees played as poorly as .505 baseball. Maybe the Replacement Yankees would have played .505 baseball or worse over 107 games. The Real Yankees, which are close to being a thing, aren’t going to.

If the Yankees were to win three out of four this weekend, those numbers become even more ridiculous. Then the Yankees could go 52-51 (.505) the rest of the way and the Red Sox would have to go 61-41 (.598) to tie them. If the Yankees sweep? They could go 52-51 (.505) and the Red Sox would have to go 63-39 (.618).

Even if the Yankees were to win two and lose to in the four-game series, they wouldn’t lose any ground to the Red Sox, and four more games, and four more games each other, would be off the schedule. If the Yankees were to disappointingly lose three of four, or embarrassingly get swept, they would still have either a six- or four-game loss column lead.

The Yankees have built themselves a nice cushion to work with and an impressive loss column lead when it comes to the Red Sox. Now it’s time to extend that lead, end the Red Sox’ division chances and turn the focus for the remaining four months of the season to the team I have said for Yankees fans to be worried about all along: the Rays.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

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Yankees’ Upcoming Roster Problem: Who Stays? Who Goes?

I will never forget the 2019 Replacement Yankees, I just don’t want to have to watch them all season. Thankfully, I won’t. The Yankees are getting healthier and healthier.

When the Yankees began the season with a 5-9 record, I feared the worst. I figured the first season of the current window of opportunity would be wasted by injuries and with Mike Tauchman batting fifth, Gio Urshela as the everyday third baseman, Austin Romine and Kyle Highashioka behind the plate and Tyler Wade playing all over the field, it made sense to assume that. The Yankees were putting another regular starting position player on the injured list seemingly every other day and the Rays couldn’t lose.

Somehow the Replacement Yankees didn’t just keep the season afloat in terms of the postseason picture and division race for the first two months of the season, they put the team at the top of the division, winning 10 of 11 series since that horrendous start. Urshela became an actual asset; Tauchman and Wade were sent back down; Thairo Estrada emerged as a real potential piece for the future; Romine went back to being a mediocre backup; Cameron Maybin proved he can still play and the starting rotation and elite relievers did the rest.

I will never forget the 2019 Replacement Yankees, I just don’t want to have to watch them all season. Thankfully, I won’t. Didi Gregorius is close to returning, Aaron Judge is about to begin swinging and Giancarlo Stanton is scheduled to begin baseball activities again at the end of this week (barring yet another setback for yet another different injury). On the pitching side, the Yankees are getting James Paxton back on Wednesday, Dellin Betances has been throwing and Luis Severino has been pain free for two to three weeks and is set to start throwing on flat ground soon. Unfortunately, Miguel Andujar won’t play again this season, and therefore the 2019 Yankees won’t play a single game with their expected lineup for the season.

As the Yankees get healthy, some tough decisions will have to be made about who gets sent down, who gets designated for assignment and then who plays once the dust settles from all the roster moves. Let’s figure out what the Yankees’ 25-man roster will look like in the coming weeks.

Didi Gregorius Returns, Thairo Estrada Gets Sent Down
It’s hard not to envision a middle infield for the next nearly decade with Estrada and Gleyber Torres. That would mean the end of Gregorius as a Yankee, but that’s not that unreasonable, considering Gregorius is coming off a major surgery, will be a free agent at the end of the season, will be 30 on Opening Day next season and LeMahieu is signed through next season and could serve as an insurance policy or bridge. However, the Yankees love Gregorius, he’s an elite shortstop both offensively and defensively and he’s a left-handed bat. There’s a chance Estrada could eventually mean the end of Gregorius’s Yankees tenure, but for now it’s the other way around.

Estrada did nothing wrong to deserve this demotion. Despite appearing in only 22 games over 38 days, all Estrada did was hit and hit and hit some more. He’s played left field for the first time ever out of necessity, as well as second and short, while serving as a pinch hitter and pinch runner. He’s batting .304/.347/.565 and it seems unfair someone with a .912 OPS in the majors is headed back to long bus rides in the minors. There’s been little playing time for Estrada as is as he’s had only three more plate appearances in 22 games with the Yankees than he did in 10 games in Triple-A, so he’ll go down, play every day and be the first infielder back up should another injury present itself.

Giancarlo Stanton Returns, Cameron Maybin Gets Designated for Assignment
I don’t know if Stanton will return before Judge, but I’m going to assume it since his current injury is less severe and he’s less removed from baseball activities. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Judge beats Stanton back.

I wouldn’t do this move, it just seems like the most likely. When Stanton returns, the Yankees will have Stanton (or Judge if he’s back before Stanton), Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner and Maybin on the roster, and it’s hard to think they will keep five outfielders on the 25-man roster, even if all five are better roster options than bat-only Kendrys Morales, whose bat isn’t exactly enough to warrant a major league roster spot.

Maybin, like Estrada has done nothing to deserve being removed from the roster. He has come up with big hits, unbelievable catches and has been a breath of fresh air on the bases. I have said both in jest and serious at times that I would keep Maybin even over Brett Gardner though that would never happen. Maybin has proven to the rest of baseball he can still play, and if’s not as a Yankee, I have to think one of the other 29 teams will make a play for him. Once Maybin is off the Yankees’ 25-man, the Yankees will lose him.

Aaron Judge Returns, Kendrys Morales Gets Designed for Assignment
I would get rid of Morales before Maybin, but that’s not going to happen. Between the crowded outfield once Stanton (or Judge) returns, Morales being a left-handed bat and an experienced veteran, whose clubhouse presence throughout his whole career has been raved about, he’s going to hold on to his roster spot for as long as it’s possible.

We’ll always have that mammoth blast from Morales, which nearly reached the upper deck in Yankee Stadium, something that has been accomplish only a few times. It’s going to take a miracle or a complete turnaround for Morales to remain on the Yankees and avoid losing his second major league roster spot this season after the A’s previously designated him for assignment before trading him to the Yankees. The Yankees have enough players to serve as the designated hitter that there’s just no way they will keep Morales on the 25-man hitting the way he has. One day we will all look back and think “Remember when Kendrys Morales was on the Yankees?” the same way we do for Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells, who were all Yankees in the same season. Wow was that 2013 season miserable.

Sometime between now and the All-Star break, the Yankees could be at full strength or at as full strength as possible now since Andujar is out for the season, and then they will have a whole new problem about who plays and who bats where in the lineup. If there aren’t any injuries between now and then (knock on all the wood), the Yankees’ 25-man roster would look like this:

Gary Sanchez
Austin Romine
Luke Voit
DJ LeMahieu
Gleyber Torres
Didi Gregorius
Gio Urshela
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton
Clint Frazier
Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
James Paxton
J.A. Happ
Domingo German
CC Sabathia
Aroldis Chapman
Dellin Betances
Adam Ottavino
Zack Britton
Tommy Kahnle
Chad Green
Jonathan Holder

If the Yankees could go 35-19 overall and 30-10 in their last 40 to achieve first place in the best division in baseball with the replacement roster they have had to use for the first two months of the season, what will they do with that 25-man roster? I look forward to finding out.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

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