The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka the ball in Game 1 of the ALCS and he gave them six brilliant innings in Houston.
I spent the entire regular season worrying about the Yankees not getting home-field advantage in the postseason for a possible ALCS against the Astros. After what happened in the 2017 ALCS, I didn’t want the Yankees to be eliminated because they couldn’t score or win in Houston again or because they couldn’t beat Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole on the road. The Rays made sure the Yankees wouldn’t have to see Verlander and Cole on the road in the first two games of the series, and now, after Game 1, the Yankees have home-field advantage. They have it because of Masahiro Tanaka and Gleyber Torres.
Throughout the season, I wanted Masahiro Tanaka to be the Yankees’ Game 1 starter in the postseason. That was until Luis Severino returned. Then I wanted Severino to be the Game 1 starter. But when Aaron Boone announced (and tried to say it was his idea) Masahiro Tanaka as the Game 1 starter for the ALCS, I was delighted. I know James Paxton has dominated the Astros in his career (aside from April of this season), but I have always trusted Tanaka much more than Paxton, and the ALDS only helped to further grow that trust.
After Game 2 of the ALDS, I wrote:
There was a lot of concern and a lack of trust for Tanaka entering the postseason because of another inconsistent regular season (though his numbers were marred by two awful starts) and because his 1.80 career postseason ERA was being attributed by many as luck. His postseason career FIP was in line with his regular-season career FIP, and therefore, his much lower ERA was being called a result of luck. It couldn’t be because Tanaka is a much different pitcher in the biggest games. It couldn’t be because Tanaka thrives on the postseason stage, never having allowed more than two earned runs in a postseason start. It had to be because of luck.
And:
I’m not sure how many impressive postseason starts it will take Tanaka for Yankees fans to unanimously accept he’s a different pitcher in October, or maybe he will just continue to be the luckiest postseason pitcher of all time.
Can we all unanimously accept Tanaka is different in October? His postseason success can’t be attributed to luck or a small sample size. Not when he’s the first postseason pitcher in history to allow two earned runs or less in each of his first seven postseason starts. Not when he’s shut down the record-setting 2017 Indians, eventual champion 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox, the top home run-hitting team in history 2019 Twins and now these 2019 Astros, who have played like the 1998 Yankees at MinuteMaid Park. Tanaka rises to the occasion in the postseason, and you only have to compare his regular-season stats to his postseason stats to measure what many believe can’t be measured: Tanaka is clutch.
Tanaka one-hit the Astros. One-hit! A team which bats Carlos Correa seventh, is the best home team in baseball and has otherworldly offensive numbers in Houston was completely shut down. The Astros barely threatened in two of Tanaka’s six innings, were behind in counts all night and produced off-balance swings in nearly every at-bat. It was a masterful performance by a pitcher who continues to turn in masterful performances in the postseason. Tanaka provided the Yankees with length and kept the Astros off the board and let Gleyber Torres carry the offense.
Nearly every TV graphic this season to show how good Torres has been has included Mickey Mantle. Torres is a superstar, and at age 22, he’s either the Yankees’ best player or he’s very close to becoming heir best player. After winning Games 1 and 3 of the ALDS and earning my ALDS MVP honors, Torres was somehow even better in Game 1 of the ALCS. Torres was promoted to the 3-hole for the ALCS and responded by giving the Yankees a 1-0 lead with an RBI double in the fourth, adding on to that lead with a solo home run in the sixth, driving in two runs with a single in the seventh and providing an insurance run with an RBI groundout in the ninth. It was a 3-for-5 night with a double, home run and five RBIs, as he’s now driven in nine runs in four games this postseason. There were more graphics comparing him to Mickey Mantle on Saturday, and those comparisons aren’t going to go away if he keeps hitting like this.
I wasn’t as nervous for Game 1 of the ALCS as I was during the ALCS two years ago or as nervous as I thought I would be or maybe should have been. Tanaka and Torres helped calm those nerves and now I’m not nervous at all. In order to win the pennant, the Yankees had to prove they could win in Houston, and they did. Now they have home-field advantage, are going back to New York no worse than tied in the series, and if they can solve and beat Verlander on Sunday night, they can put these Astros in a position they’ve never been with the series moving to New York.
Four down, seven to go.
***
My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
The Yankees are one Rays win away from having home-field in the ALCS, and at the worst, they will get a much different Astros rotation than expected.
There’s been too much going on to not bring the Off Day Dreaming blog from the regular season back for the postseason. The Yankees are resting for the second straight day, while the Astros and Rays are in Houston preparing for Game 5 on Thursday. It’s never felt so good to not have Yankees baseball for so long.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees on this off day as usual.
1. I don’t want Aaron Hicks to return to the team. Not that he’s necessarily going to because him saying he’s ready to go and him actually being deemed ready to go by the Yankees are two very different things, but the Yankees don’t need him and I don’t want him.
Hicks only played in 59 games this year, hasn’t played since August 3 and wasn’t good when he played. He batted .235/.325/.443 in his limited time with 12 home runs and 36 RBIs, and while the home runs translate to a 33-home run season over 162 games, that’s not all that impressive given the state of the baseball and home run totals around the league. And projecting numbers for Hicks out over 162 games, as if he would ever play a full season is funny.
Even if Hicks were to return and have only a reserve role on the team, it would likely mean Cameron Maybin would lose his postseason roster spot. Maybin deserves to be a part of this time now after earning it throughout the regular season, and he’s a better option for a role off the bench, which he most recently displayed in Game 3 with his ninth-inning home run to give the Yankees a much-needed insurance run.
Unfortunately, this is a lost season for Hicks, in what was another season in which he got hurt multiple times and failed to stay on the field. The Yankees don’t need him and they don’t have a place for a player who hasn’t played in more than two months.
2. There’s this idea it’s unwise to want to pick your opponent in the postseason, but I disagree. If given the choice before the ALDS, I’m sure the Yankees would have rather faced the team with no starting pitching in the Twins than the Astros or Rays, and when it comes to the ALCS, there’s no chance the Yankees would rather face the Astros over the Rays. A matchup against the Rays means home-field advantage for the series, a shorter flight for Games 3, 4 and 5 and the chance to play in a familiar setting where the majority of the crowd will be Yankees fans.
If you want the Yankees to face the Astros or if you’re not rooting for the Rays to win Game 5 because you don’t want to root for a division rival or because you think picking your postseason opponent has negative repercussions, take a lap.
3. Even if the Rays lose Game 5 of the ALDS to the Astros on Thursday night, they have already done more than enough to help the Yankees for the ALCS. Justin Verlander starting Game 4 of the ALDS means the earliest he can pitch in the ALCS is Game 2, and Gerrit Cole having to start Game 5 of the ALDS means the earliest he can pitch in the ALCS is Game 3. Instead of the Yankees getting Verlander in Game 1 and Cole in Game 2 in Houston (where the duo is nearly unbeatable) they would get Verlander in Game 2 in Houston and Cole in Game 3 in New York. And after seeing Cole get knocked around in Boston in the 2018 ALDS, he’s far from a sure-thing away from his home of MinuteMaid Park.
The Astros having to go the distance against the Rays means their rotation would look something like this in the ALCS:
Game 1: Zack Greinke Game 2: Justin Verlander Game 3: Gerrit Cole Game 4: Wade Miley Game 5: Zack Greinke Game 6: Justin Verlander Game 7: Gerrit Cole
4. If the Rays are to pull off the historic upset and eliminate the Astros in Game 5, then things get even more advantageous for the Yankees. The Yankees would then have home-field advantage for the ALCS and would play Games 1 and 2 in New York on Saturday and Sunday rather than Games 3, 4 and 5 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. That means a more raucous Stadium crowd with all day to pregame and no work obligations either day.
It also means the Yankees would face the overall lesser opponent, who they went 12-7 against in the regular season with two of the losses coming in the last week of the season when the Yankees had nothing to play for (and provided the lineups to prove it) and the Rays had everything to play for.
It’s hard to predict the Rays’ rotation if they advance to the ALCS because it’s hard to know if Charlie Morton or Blake Snell will need to come out of the bullpen in Game 5 in relief of Tyler Glasnow. But let’s say the Rays stick to their expected rotation and Morton and Snell go in turn, this is what the Rays’ ALCS rotation would look like:
Game 1: Blake Snell Game 2: Charlie Morton Game 3: Tyler Glasnow Game 4: Opener Game 5: Blake Snell Game 6: Charlie Morton Game 7: Tyler Glasnow
The Yankees would get Snell and Morton in New York where neither has had success.
Snell has been a disaster at the Stadium in his career, pitching to a 5.82 ERA, 1.616 WHIP and allowing nine home runs in 43 1/3 innings over 11 starts. He’s fared much better against the Yankees at Tropicana Field, but if the Rays use this rotation, he will only face the Yankees once at home, and the series might be over before he even gets to.
Morton has been a dominant postseason pitcher, and handled the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K), but in Game 3 of that series, he was removed in the fourth inning after getting rocked (3.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR) at the Stadium. This season he shut the Yankees down over two starts at Tropicana Field, but couldn’t get anyone out in two starts at the Stadium.
With this rotation, Morton would only face the Yankees in New York, where he’s been Pirates Charlie Morton and not Astros/Rays Charlie Morton.
5. Even going back to the beginning of the season, I have always been against CC Sabathia getting a postseason start, and there’s no chance of it happening now, which is great. But being on the roster and pitching out of the bullpen? That’s a different story.
Aaron Boone managed himself into a pretzel in Game 3 when he used Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green in the fifth inning. Thankfully, the Yankees were able to win the game by only using their elite relievers and it never truly came back to hurt the team or ruin the series. But because of his dangerous decisions, Tyler Lyons was warming up at one point. The same Tyler Lyons the Yankees signed in August after he was released by the Pirates and who gave up three home runs in 8 1/3 innings for the Yankees in the regular season. The only reason Lyons is on the roster is because both Sabathia and Dellin Betances are hurt.
I would have felt much more comfortable had Sabathia (even on one knee and with a bad shoulder) been warming up instead of Lyons. And moving forward, I hope Sabathia is healthy enough to be on the active roster, so that it will be him instead of Lyons warming up when Boone inevitably mismanages the bullpen.
6. I think it’s beyond silly to bat Brett Gardner third in the lineup and have him bat ahead of Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez, but the Yankees feel it’s necessary to break up the right-handed bats (the same way they feel it’s necessary to give their players scheduled days off to prevent injuries), so they’re going to have a left-handed bat there against right-handed starters. Because of that and because the team is undefeated in the postseason with that lineup, you can expect to continue to see it in the ALCS against right-handed starters.
The right-handed starters the Yankees will see in the ALCS are either Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke, or Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow and probably opener Diego Castillo. Against left-handed pitching, Gardner would most likely slide down to the bottom of the order, and the Yankees would place Gio Urshela between Gardner and Didi Gregorius. That would give the Yankees a lineup looking something like this:
DJ LeMahieu, 1B Aaron Judge, RF Edwin Encarnacion, DH Giancarlo Stanton, LF Gleyber Torres, 2B Gary Sanchez, C Didi Gregorius, SS Gio Urshela, 3B Brett Gardner, CF
Now that’s a lineup. That’s the lineup the Yankees would use against Wade Miley and Blake Snell. I think it’s the lineup they should use every game.
7. Ottavino was used oddly in Game 3 of the ALDS, facing only Nelson Cruz before being removed for another right-handed pitcher in Green to face a left-handed hitter. It’s clear Boone is being told by the analytics department to not allow Ottavino to face left-handed batters, and that won’t be a problem if the Yankees face the Astros. Ottavino will have his work cut out for him with anticipated matchups against George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa, so while it was head-scratching to see Ottavino used in a limited role against the Twins, you can expect to see a lot of him against the Astros.
If it’s the Rays who advance, Ottavino’s role will be less prominent as the Rays have a much more balanced lineup, but even then, their left-handed bats are nowhere near as fearsome as the left-handed bats of the Twins or Astros. Either way, expect to see more Ottavino in the next round, and expect to see a lot of him if the Yankees play the Astros.
8. Aside from sweeping the division series and getting a four-day, complete-day layoff before the ALCS, the best part about the ALDS was that everyone in the lineup contributed.
LeMahieu hit two doubles, a home run and had four RBIs. Judge reached base in seven of his 13 plate appearances. Gardner homered in Game 1 and drove in the huge second run in Game 3. Encarnacion went 4-for-13 with two doubles and two RBIs. Stanton reached base in five of his 11 plate appearances. Torres gave the Yankees the lead in Games 1 and 3, had three doubles, a home run, four RBIs, two stolen bases and a 1.378 OPS and was the ALDS MVP. Sanchez reached base in five of his 12 plate appearances and saw 28 pitches in Game 3.Gregorius had the grand slam in Game 2, drove in two insurance runs in Game 3 and led the team with 6 RBIs in the series. Urshela had three hits, including a double.
When the worst hitter on your team in a series is your 9-hitter (Urshela here), which is supposed to be your worst hitter, and even he goes 3-for-12 with a double in the series, you know things are going well. When you score 23 runs in three games despite not getting a home run from Judge, Encarnacion, Stanton or Sanchez, well, that’s just scary.
Too many times since 2001 have the Yankees lost postseason series because the entire team or nearly the entire team is cold at the same time. I don’t expect the Yankees to have the kind of three-game offensive outburst they had in the ALDS in the ALCS or the World Series if they make it that far, but getting production and timely hits from different players each game, like they did in the ALDS, is what wins in October.
9. Odds are the Yankees will stay with their ALDS rotation in the ALCS, but there are a few things for them to think about depending on which team wins.
If the Rays win, I think it’s a guarantee we see the same rotation order in the ALCS, setting up this rotation:
Game 1: James Paxton Game 2: Masahiro Tanaka Game 3: Luis Severino Game 4: Opener/J.A. Happ Game 5: James Paxton Game 6: Masahiro Tanaka Game 7: Luis Severino
That would allow both Paxton and Tanaka to pitch at home in Games 1 and 2 and would bring Tanaka back at home in Game 6, where’s he much better than on he is on the road.
If the Astros win, things could change. Paxton, despite being a left-hander against the Astros’ right-handed heavy lineup of Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel and Correa has dominated the Astros in his career, winning all four of his starts against them in 2018 as a Mariner. I wouldn’t feel great about having a lefty opening the series on the road against that right-handed lineup, but I still think he would be the Yankees’ Game 1 choice, even though he pitched the worst of three starters in the ALDS.
I think the Yankees might flip Tanaka and Severino if they have to play the Astros. Tanaka did pitch well in Game 1 in Houston in the 2017 ALCS, and Severino did OK in Game 2 of that series, but it’s clear the Yankees would rather have Tanaka start at home than on the road this postseason. If the Yankees were to leave Paxton and flip Tanaka and Severino, the rotation would look like this:
Game 1: James Paxton Game 2: Luis Severino Game 3: Masahiro Tanaka Game 4: Opener/J.A. Happ Game 5: James Paxton Game 6: Luis Severino Game 7: Masahiro Tanaka
The Yankees have a lot to think about when it comes to their rotation, and I’m sure they already know what they will do depending on which team wins the other series, but at least they will get to line up their rotation on their terms after sweeping their division series.
10. I needed this four-day layoff as much as the Yankees after spending Friday and Saturday at the Stadium and then having the stressful Game 3 on Tuesday. It’s nice to sit back and enjoy the other series and not have to worry about a winner-take-all game like Astros, Rays, Dodgers, Nationals, Braves and Cardinals fans have to worry about on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Yankees might not have won home-field advantage for the American League postseason in the regular season, but they are one Rays win from getting it, and they are now in a much better position to face the Astros if the Astros win.
***
My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
As much as the Yankees bullpen can use these next four days off to rest for the ALCS, I can use these four days off to rest as well. Three down, eight to go.
I wanted Luis Severino to start Game 1 of the ALDS. He’s the Yankees’ best pitcher, and right now, it’s essentially early April for his arm, which is when he’s his most dominant without a season’s worth of starts, innings and fatigue. The Yankees decided to pitch him in Game 3, and after winning the first two games of the series, the Yankees were sending their best starting pitcher to the mound with a chance to advance to the ALCS.
I didn’t care if Severino pitched three innings or seven innings in Game 3, I only cared about zeros. The amount of outs and innings he gave the Yankees was secondary to the amount of zeros he could give them with the bullpen well rested after essentially having Game 2 off and an off day on Sunday. Give the team zeros like he did in the 2018 American League Wild-Card Game and everything would be fine.
In the first two games of the series, I was worried for a total of three-and-a-half innings. The first two-and-a-half innings of Game 1 when the Yankees trailed 2-0, the top of the fifth in Game 1 when the Twins tied the game at 3 against Paxton and the top of the first in Game 1 when Tanaka had two baserunners on. Aside from those innings, the Yankees had the lead in the first two games. In Game 3, I was worried in the first inning, was able to calm down in the second after Gleyber Torres hit a solo home run in the top half and then was in full panic mode in the bottom half.
Severino gave up a double to Eddie Rosario, walked Mitch Garver and allowed a single to Luis Arraez. In 10 pitches, Severino had loaded the bases with no outs and I started to have flashbacks to Game 3 of the 2018 ALDS when he was inexplicably late to warm up for the game, had no command of his pitches and left with a bases-loaded, no-out jam (and the bases would clear when Aaron Boone mismanaged his bullpen). As anti-Yankees fan John Smoltz, whose Hall of Fame career is full of blemishes against the Yankees, tried to will the Twins to at least tie the game with the advantageous situation, Severino buckled down, found his command and took back control of the inning. An eight-pitch battle with Miguel Sano resulted in an infield pop-up for the first out and hardest out of the situation to record. A quick four-pitch slider barrage struck out Marwin Gonzalez swinging and then it was former Yankee Jake Cave’s turn to try to save the inning for the Twins and put the Yankees on the defensive for the first time since early in Game 1. Severino won that matchup as well, striking out Cave, and ending a 30-pitch inning for his second straight zero of Game 3.
Brett Gardner (also known as the “3-hitter”) provided a two-out RBI single in the third to give the Yankees and my blood pressure a cushion to work with. I figured Severino getting through the bottom of the second unscathed would allow him to settle down, but it didn’t as he had to escape another two-on, two-out jam in the third. It wasn’t until the fourth inning when Severino looked like himself, getting ahead in counts and attacking before his back was against the wall. The fourth inning was Severino’s only 1-2-3 inning of the game, and it ended up being the Yankees’ only 1-2-3 inning of the game, but after laboring through the first three, Severino wasn’t going to be allowed to face the Twins’ order for a third time.
Severino followed the Yankees’ Postseason Formula for Success: he gave them 12 outs. He had done his job and with everyone available in the bullpen (I hate even writing that since everyone should be available every game in the postseason, but this is the Yankees we’re talking about), four scoreless innings was more than enough to help send the Yankees to the ALCS.
When Severino exited the game, the Yankees held a two-run lead, and that meant Aaron Boone would actually have to manage the bullpen in a close game and would have an impact on the series for the first time. The routs in Games 1 and 2 had saved the Yankees and Yankees fans from finding out if their manager had learned from his mistakes which helped eliminate the Yankees a year ago, but in Game 3, beginning in the fifth inning, Boone would have a say on how the game would end.
Knowing he would need to get 15 outs from the bullpen, Boone got two outs from Tommy Kahnle (who I continue to lack trust in and who luckily got a line drive off the wall and another line drive hit directly at Gardner), let Adam Ottavino face one batter (Yankees ownership can’t be too happy that they’re paying Ottavino $9 million per season and their manager doesn’t allow him to face more than one batter) and then got the final out of the fifth from Chad Green. It took Boone three of his elite relievers to get three outs, and there were still 12 outs to get. Boone was creating a recipe for disaster with his bullpen management, and if Green wasn’t able to pitch the entire sixth or Zack Britton proved ineffective in the seventh or eighth, either J.A. Happ, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa or Tyler Lyons would have to pitch in a game that could send the Yankees to the ALCS.
Green was able to get through the sixth, but Boone’s fifth-inning managing blunder reared its ugly head in the seventh. Knowing he only had Britton and Aroldis Chapman remaining of his elite relievers, Boone tried to sneak at least another out of Green in the seventh. There’s no sneaking outs in the playoffs though, and C.J. Cron singled to lead off the inning. (Thankfully, Didi Gregorius had extended the Yankees’ lead to 3-0 in the top of the inning.) With nine outs and two elite relievers left, Boone went to Britton and he closed out the seventh.
There were signs between the seventh and eighth that Britton might have gotten hurt as he went down the dugout tunnel. A few minutes later he reappeared in the dugout to comfort Yankees fans as Lyons began warming up in the event Britton couldn’t go. Britton gave up a solo home run on an 0-2 pitch to begin the eighth, but rebounded to get Garver to ground out before Steve Donahue had to make his way to the mound to check on Britton. Whatever was going on after the seventh hadn’t gone away, and Britton had to leave the game. (Did anyone think the Yankees could get through three postseason games without losing another player to injury?) Boone turned to Chapman, his last elite arm in the bullpen, to get the final five outs of the game and hopefully the series.
Chapman entered Game 3 having appeared in two games and having thrown 27 pitches in the last 12 days. Given his history of poor performance with infrequent use, I was more than worried. If Chapman couldn’t close out the game, the Yankees would either lose with him on the mound or go extra innings with only Happ, Loaisiga, Cessa and Lyons available. If Chapman wasn’t on, there would be a Game 4.
Chapman got the last two outs of the eighth, and then like they did in Game 5 of the 2017 ALDS, the offense went and provided insurance in the ninth. Cameron Maybin homered in his only at-bat after coming into the game as a defensive replacement for Giancarlo Stanton. Maybin entered the game with the best career history of anyone on the Yankees against Jake Odorizzi, but it would be Sergio Romo who he would get to face and homer off of. A Torres double, steal of third and Gregorius single gave the Yankees another insurance run, and with a four-run lead for the bottom of the ninth, I could smell the ALCS.
Chapman farted on the sense-pleasing smell of the ALCS when he allowed a single on an 0-2 pitch to Gonzalez to begin the ninth and then walked Cron. The Twins were turning over their lineup and had the tying run in the on-deck circle. If Nelson Cruz came to the plate as either the tying or winning run I felt like I would have a heart attack and not get to experience the Yankees’ trip to the ALCS, if they were still able to get there. Chapman struck out Max Kepler for the first out of the inning and then Jorge Polanco ripped a line drive to short, which off the bat looked like it would be a run-scoring hit and my fear of Cruz coming up as the tying run would come to fruition. Gregorius dove to his left and laid out to catch the line drive for the second out. Even if Cruz were to hit a home run, the Yankees would still have the lead. Cruz didn’t homer. Instead, he took the fifth pitch of his at-bat for a called third strike to end the game and the series.
The win was the Yankees 13th straight over the Twins in the postseason, having now eliminated them six times in the last 17 years. The Yankees outscored the Twins 23-7 in the three games, only allowing three solo home runs to the team with the most single-season home runs in history. The Yankees received production from each third of the lineup, and even their bench with Maybin’s Game 3 home run. The starting pitching pitched to this line: 13.2 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 19 K, 2 HR, 2.63 ERA, 1.170 WHIP. The bullpen pitched to this line: 13.1 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 2 HR, 2.03 ERA, 1.275 WHIP. Boone’s bullpen decisions, while not necessarily the most sound, all worked out. It was as close to a perfect ALDS as you could ask for, and because of that, it resulted in a sweep.
There should be an ALDS MVP. If teams are going to celebrate the way they do after winning the ALCS or World Series, then there should be an MVP for the ALDS as well. Torres was the ALDS MVP. He gave the Yankees the lead for good in Game 1 with his two-run double, and in Game 3, he set the tone and gave the Yankees the lead with his second-inning solo home run, prevented a rally with his sliding play in shallow right field and also added two doubles in the series-clinching win. After looking overmatched and overwhelmed in last year’s postseason, Torres batted .417/.462/.917 in this ALDS with three doubles, a home run and four RBIs. Again, he’s 22 years old.
As much as the bullpen can use these next four days off to rest for the ALCS, I can use these four days off to rest for the ALCS as well. Each postseason win means at least one more Yankees game for the season, and the ALDS win means at least four more Yankees games this season. There will be plenty of time to think about the ALCS, envision how it will play out, complain about the potential lineup and rotation and wonder how the Yankees are going to get back to the World Series for the first time in a decade. For now, it’s time to rest and celebrate an ALDS sweep.
Three down, eight to go.
***
My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
The Yankees have won the first two games of the postseason, the way any team wins in the postseason: timely hitting and great pitching.
I wasn’t worried about Game 2 as I walked into Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Because of the quick turnaround with the 5:07 p.m. start, I was a little tired and still a little hungover, but I was as confident about the Yankees as I was when I left the Stadium less than 18 hours earlier. After watching the Twins have trouble beating the Replacement Yankees during the regular season and after watching the Twins unsuccessfully use their best starter in Game 1, I couldn’t have been more calm and more relaxed before a postseason game. But what had me feeling great about Game 2 was the Twins’ decision to start a rookie with 28 1/3 career innings to his name and less-than-desirable strikeout numbers against this Yankees lineup in New York.
Everyone knows Randy Dobnak’s story at this point: an undrafted independent league pitcher who was driving for Uber and Lyft before getting a chance with the Twins. And for anyone at the Stadium who didn’t know it, they found out as the crowd serenaded Dobnak with “U-BER … U-BER … U-BER” chants throughout his two-plus innings of work. My expectations for the Yankees to solve Dobnak — who they had never seen — were quickly met in the first inning when D(erek) J(eter) LeMahieu doubled to lead off the game and Aaron Judge followed with a walk. Two batters later, Edwin Encarnacion drove in LeMahieu with a single, the Yankees had the lead and Dobnak had thrown 19 pitches, recorded one out and was already trailing with two men still on base. Dobnak escaped the first inning without further damage and pitched around two, two-out singles in the second, but in the third inning, facing the lineup for a second time after it had already had success against him the first, things unraveled for the right-hander.
Nine pitches into the third, Dobnak had loaded the bases with no outs after Judge singled, Brett Gardner walked and Encarnacion singled. Dobnak was removed from the game with his team trailing by one and still responsible for all three runners on base. Tyler Duffey, arguably the Twins’ best reliever, and one of their “elite” arms, which were said to be elite enough to go toe-to-toe with the Yankees’ relievers prior to the series entered for the second straight night, and for the second straight night, made sure his teammate got tagged with his inherited runners.
Giancarlo Stanton had a productive at-bat with a sacrifice fly to make it 2-0 and then Gleyber Torres came through with an 0-2 single to make it 3-0. Gary Sanchez got hit by an 0-2 pitch to reload the bases, bringing up Didi Gregorius, who struggled all season after returning from Tommy John surgery to the point it was a legitimate question if the Yankees were better off with Torres at short and Gregorius on the bench rather than playing with an automatic out in the lineup.
Two years after Gregorius saved the Yankees’ season in the first inning of the 2017 wild-card game against the Twins, he was about to put the Twins’ historic 101-win season on the brink of elimination. Gregorius fell behind Duffey 0-2, but battled to extend the at-bat by three more pitches. The third pitch ended up in the second deck in right field for a grand slam to give the Yankees a 7-0 lead. With one out in the bottom of the third, Game 2 was over.
It was over because for the second straight game, the offense had exploded. Finishing Game 2 with eight runs, the Yankees had produced 18 runs in two postseason games, a ridiculous number, and a number that isn’t supposed to be possible at this time of year. But the game was also over because Masahiro Tanaka, the most trusted Yankees postseason pitcher once again stepped up in October.
There was a lot of concern and a lack of trust for Tanaka entering the postseason because of another inconsistent regular season (though his numbers were marred by two awful starts) and because his 1.80 career postseason ERA was being attributed by many as luck. His postseason career FIP was in line with his regular-season career FIP, and therefore, his much lower ERA was being called a result of luck. It couldn’t be because Tanaka is a much different pitcher in the biggest games. It couldn’t be because Tanaka thrives on the postseason stage, never having allowed more than two earned runs in a postseason start. It had to be because of luck.
In Game 2, Tanaka pitched to this line: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. A night after James Paxton was oddly being heralded as having pitched well (4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 2 HR) against a vaunted Twins lineup, Tanaka actually did pitch well, dominating the all-time, single-season home run team. I’m not sure how many impressive postseason starts it will take Tanaka for Yankees fans to unanimously accept he’s a different pitcher in October, or maybe he will just continue to be the luckiest postseason pitcher of all time.
Tanaka didn’t need to be his dominant October self in Game 2, considering the performance the offense put together, but he was anyway. The lone run against him came when Mitch Garver weakly tapped a ground ball to a vacated second base with Torres shifting on the left side of the infield. And with two on and one out in the fourth, the Twins trailing 8-1 and trying to get back into the game, Tanaka struck out Luis Arraez and Miguel Sano on a combined eight pitches to end the inning. In his last inning of work in the fifth, he pitched a perfect, 10-pitch frame, before handing the ball off to the bullpen for the sixth, in order to not face the heart of the order for a third time.
The win improved the Yankees to 15-2 against the Twins in the postseason with the two losses coming in 2003 and 2004 and against Johan Santana. But throughout all the postseason meetings against the Twins, the Yankees never easily or handily beat them the way they have in the first two game of this ALDS. Whether it was overcoming 0-1 series deficits to Santana, or needing Alex Rodriguez to single-handedly win a game or Ruben Sierra to hit a massive late-game home run or Joe Nathan to implode in the ninth inning or Lance Berkman to create a comeback or Gregorius to save the season, the Yankees have always beat the Twins, but they have always had to truly work for it and put a scare into the entire fan base on their way to winning. Games 1 and 2 this have both resulted in eventual laughers.
I have been worried for three-and-a-half innings in this series. The first two-and-a-half innings of Game 1 when the Yankees trailed 2-0, the top of the fifth in Game 1 when the Twins tied the game at 3 against Paxton and the top of the first in Game 1 when Tanaka had two baserunners on. Aside from those innings, the Yankees have held the lead for the entire series.
The Yankees have won the first two games of the postseason the way any team wins in the postseason: timely hitting and great pitching. Though they didn’t necessarily get “great” pitching in Game 1, they got “good enough” pitching and more than enough timely hitting to make up for it. The pitching staff has held the second-best offense in baseball this season and the top home run-hitting team in baseball history to six runs in two games. They are getting production from each third of the lineup, and have scored 18 runs in 16 innings without either Stanton or Sanchez getting a hit yet. The best part of it all is the offense has taken Aaron Boone and any wild in-game managerial stunts he might pull completely out of the series. The first two games couldn’t have gone any better for the Yankees.
The series isn’t over yet, but it’s close to being over. The Twins used their best starting pitcher in Game 1 and lost. The Yankees have their best starting pitcher going in Game 3 with a chance to advance to the ALCS.
Two down, nine to go.
***
My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
DJ LeMahieu went from the bench on Opening Day to becoming the Yankees’ MVP all season and he was once again worthy of that title in Game 1.
The wait between Game 162 of the regular season and Game 1 of the ALDS felt like sitting in a doctor’s office waiting room all week. It’s been a long time since the Yankees had such the extended layoff between the end of the regular season and the start of the postseason because it’s been a long time since they reached the postseason without playing in the wild-card game.
It’s also been a long time since the Yankees played a meaningful game. The division was essentially won back at the end of June and with the organization’s half-hearted attempt in September to win home-field advantage, the Yankees have essentially been playing exhibition games since shortly before the All-Star break. Nearly the entire regular season was a formality — the way it was many times between 1995-2012 — and the last six-plus months have been about preparing for Friday night and the postseason.
I got to my seat in Yankee Stadium just in time to see the sad sight of Dellin Betances hobbling to the first-base line on crutches. The second-best relief pitcher in Yankees history and the one true bright spot on the team during the dark years between 2013 and 2016 deserved to be able to pitch in his free-agency year and in these playoffs. I felt sad for Betances on a night that would be stressful and hopefully end in happiness. But outside of James Paxton’s pitching performance, I wouldn’t be sad again.
I wanted the rotation to be Luis Severino in Game 1 followed by Paxton in Game 2 and Masahiro Tanaka in Game 3. I wanted Severino in the first game because he’s the team’s best pitcher and innings-wise his arm is in early April when he’s at his best. There’s no fatigue with Severino after a season of 30-plus starts and he looked like his usual self in his three short starts in September. I wanted Tanaka in Game 3 because I trust him more than the other two to make adjustments mid-game (the guy completely changed the grip of his signature pitch which has made his career) and not get rattled on the road. I would then have slotted Paxton second because he’s the lone lefty to give a different look between the righties and because of his post-July success.
Paxton’s first-inning troubles returned at the worst time. He allowed a solo home run to Jorge Polanco in the first, but settled down with a scoreless second before allowing a two-out solo home run to Nelson Cruz in the third. As Cruz walked to the plate, I joked that he scares me more than David Ortiz, and then Cruz sent the first pitch of the at-bat over the right-field wall, coincidentally tying Ortiz with 17 postseason home runs.
Paxton wasn’t good in his 4 2/3 innings aside from racking up eight strikeouts. He allowed three earned runs, six baserunners and two home runs. Yes, the Twins have a deep and dangerous lineup and he gave the team two more outs than they probably felt they needed, but three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings isn’t going to work this month unless the offense is going to hit the way it hit last night.
It’s crazy to remember DJ LeMahieu wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup. He has been the team’s best and most valuable player since the first weekend of the season and continues to impress with each game. I expect LeMahieu to come through in every at-bat at this point, and he always seems to. Thankfully, his odd second-inning error didn’t result in any Twins runs, but he more than made up for it anyway with a home run, which gave the Yankees an important insurance run in the sixth, and a bases-loaded, bases-clearing double to break the game open in the seventh. He was the team’s most valuable player all season and was again in Game 1 of the ALDS.
I recently joked about ending up in the emergency room if the Yankees batted Brett Gardner third in the playoffs. It was one thing (though still ridiculous) to bat Gardner third in May when the entire team was on the injured list, but in the playoffs? Sure enough, there he was, batting third for Game 1. Gardner probably wouldn’t even be in the lineup if Aaron Hicks were healthy, and outside of Didi Gregorius, he’s the worst hitter on the team, yet somehow is batting ahead of Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez. Just because he bats left-handed doesn’t mean he has to bat third, and there’s no need to have to break up all of the righties. Gardner hit a solo home run and the Yankees won, so I’m sure he will be back in the 3-hole for Game 2, but that doesn’t mean it’s the right move, especially long-term in these playoffs.
The quick hook on Adam Ottavino all season and again in Game 1 continues to be puzzling. I have been scared of Aaron Boone’s faith in Tommy Kahnle and lack of faith in Ottavino and have worried about Kahnle blowing a playoff game and he was on his way to on Friday. Thankfully, Boone didn’t have any say or impact on the game because the offense put up 10 runs and no type of bullpen management could ruin a blowout win. If only the Yankees could score 10 runs every game in October and take their manager out of the game.
For all of the postseason wins over the Twins since 2003, they have mostly come as a result of late-game heroics or wild comebacks. There haven’t been many “easy” wins, especially in Game 1.
I have always felt the division series should be more than a best-of-5 because after a six-month grind to reach the postseason, your season could essentially be over in 24 hours if you have two bad games. The Yankees have a chance to essentially end the Twins’ season on Saturday in Game 2, and it will be Masahiro Tanaka and his 1.50 ERA in five postseason games who can put the Yankees up 2-0.
