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Yankees Thoughts: Astros Are Best Team in AL

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

The Yankees opened their second “half” with the worst possible day imaginable: swept in a doubleheader in Houston. The Yankees’ lead over the Astros for the best record in the American League is now down to two games in the loss column.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The only people left who don’t seem to think the 1-seed in the American League is important are the Yankees. Aaron Boone came back from the three-day All-Star break and couldn’t bring himself to play the best possible lineup in both games of the doubleheader in Houston. Giancarlo Stanton didn’t start the first game and DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo were left out of the starting lineup in the second game. The Yankees sat their 1- 2- and 4-hitters in the two most important remaining games of the regular season.

They also decided to give Domingo German his first start since July 31, 2021 in one of the two most important remaining games of the season, on the road, in Houston, against the Astros. I love John Sterling, but he’s wrong: you can predict baseball. German got lit up, allowing back-to-back home runs in the first inning, lasted only three innings and gave up on five runs on seven baserunners. It was the least surprising performance of all time, as the starting pitcher who isn’t any good, wasn’t good again, and the starting pitcher who averages nearly two home runs per nine innings allowed two in just three innings.

2. German should have been released by the Yankees in 2019 as soon as he was suspended. Instead, the Yankees have continued to roster him, even as the clubhouse wanted no part of him in spring training last year, and even as his performance has been abysmal. The Yankees couldn’t wait to get him back into the majors. They couldn’t wait to give him a start against a team they never beat in a stadium they never win at. They couldn’t wait for him to pitch them to another loss, and he did exactly that.

And yes, those two games were the two most important remaining games of the Yankees’ 70 remaining games (now 68). The Yankees entered the second “half” with a four-game lead in the loss column over the Astros, and that’s now down to two after losing 3-2 and 7-5 on Thursday.

3. As Boone was giving his postgame press conference following the second loss (a press conference in which he said he saw “some good” from German in what was his latest embarrassing evaluation), YES showed a graphic that read “Yankees never led in doubleheader.” Forget the doubleheader. The Yankees never led in any of the seven games between the two teams this season. In the two Yankees’ wins, the Yankees didn’t lead until Aaron Judge walked off the Astros twice. They never led in the entire seven games.

4. Here is a summary of the now-over season series:

Game 1: Yankees are no-hit from innings 2 through 8, and overcome three-run deficit in ninth inning to walk off.

Game 2: Yankees score one run in loss.

Game 3: Yankees are no-hit for first time in 19 years.

Game 4: Yankees are no-hit for first 6 1/3 innings, over come three-run deficit in seventh and eighth innings because Dusty Baker refuses to use his best relievers again, and Yankees walk off in 10th.

Game 5: Yankees score one run in loss.

Game 6: Yankees score two runs in loss.

Game 7: Yankees start pitcher who has thrown 1 1/3 innings since July 31, 2021, and lose.

That’s a lot of being no-hit, a lot of not scoring and a lot of losing. The Astros thoroughly own the Yankees. They own them in the regular season and they have owned them in the postseason. The only two Astros position players still on the team from their 2015 wild-card win over the Yankees are Jose Altuve and Jason Castro, and Castro is currently on the injured list and rarely ever plays. The only Astros position players still on the team from their 2017 ALCS win over the Yankees are Altuve, Castro, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. The Astros have changed their entire roster, they have let George Springer, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Correa walk, and they still own the Yankees. That’s because they have signed the right free agents (like Michael Brantley, who I begged the Yankees to sign after 2018), and continue to fill their roster voids with capable major leaguers who become All-Stars like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena. At full strength, the Astros don’t have Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Joey Gallo in their lineup, and they aren’t wasting at-bats and money on Josh Donaldson. (Sure, Gurriel is having a down year, but he also won the batting title just last year and is making one-third of what Donaldson makes.)

5. Since the Yankees’ 2017 ALCS loss to the Astros, the Astros have moved on or traded pitchers like Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Fiers, Collin McHugh, Joe Musgrove, Wade Miley and Zack Greinke. The only two constants have been Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr., and when Verlander missed 2020 and 2021, and when McCullers Jr. missed 2021 the Astros still managed to get to the ALCS in both seasons and the World Series in 2021.

6. The only Astros starter the Yankees haven’t seen in 2022 is Jake Odorizzi, and it would take an inordinate amount of injuries for him to get a postseason start (like it did in 2021).

Here is how the Astros’ starters have fared against the Yankees in 2022:

Justin Verlander: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Christian Javier: 12 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 16 K, 1 HR

Luis Garcia: 10.1, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 12 K, 2 HR

Justin Verlander: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Jose Urquidy: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Framber Valdez: 6 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR

Total: 42.1 IP, 15 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 16 BB, 41 H, 6 HR, 1.91 ERA, 0.732 WHIP

McCullers Jr, who has always pitched well against the Yankees, is nearing a return, which means at least one of these starters is going to the bullpen. Or maybe McCullers Jr. will go to the bullpen, like he did when he threw four scoreless innings to close out Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS against the Yankees, throwing only breaking balls.

7. What happens if the Astros go out and upgrade their roster like they did at the 2017 deadline when they added Verlander (because the Yankees wouldn’t take on his salary and watched him single-handedly swing the ALCS), or prior to 2018 when they added Cole (because the Yankees wouldn’t trade Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar, eventually releasing Frazier for nothing and still won’t give Andujar everyday playing time over Aaron Hicks or Joey Gallo), or like they did in 2019 when they added Zack Greinke (and the eventual 103-win Yankees didn’t make a single move and overused their bullpen in that ALCS with Zack Britton admitting the relievers were fatigued). What happens if the Astros trade for Luis Castillo?

8. The Yankees need to do something. The right play is to give up the farm for Juan Soto, because he not only helps the Yankees now, but would help them for the next 10-plus years if extended. The other option is to be the team that trades for Castillo, not the Astros (or Dodgers).

9. As currently constructed, the Yankees won’t get past the Astros in a possible ALCS matchup. Home-field advantage wouldn’t even matter. That has been made clear through the seven games the teams played against each other. The Astros are better than the Yankees in every facet of the game, aside from the back end of the bullpen, and one half of the Yankees’ back end of the bullpen lost the first game on Thursday, and the other half didn’t even pitch. The bullpen has been the Astros’ biggest flaw since 2017, but it hasn’t stopped them from going to five straight ALCS and three of the last five World Series. Because come October, they will just move starters to the bullpen once again to supplement Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero and Ryne Stanek.

10. The 1-seed is in serious jeopardy. The Yankees had a double-digit lead over the Astros at one point, and now it’s down to two games in the loss column. While the Yankees will spend the next two-plus months battling their division opponents, all of which are at least .500 and all of which have a chance at the postseason, the Astros will play nearly one quarter of their schedule against the A’s and Angels, who are counting down the days until their miserable seasons are over.

The Yankees had an unbelievable opportunity  to increase their odds at having home-field advantage on Thursday, and they blew it, with the days going as badly as possible. If they continue to not play the best possible lineup even once a week and continue to give extended rest to their starters and relievers and act like they have already clinched everything there is to clinch, they will continue to make it easy for the Astros to pass them.

With home-field advantage the Yankees will have a chance at representing the American League in the World Series. Without it, a Yankees-Astros ALCS is likely to play out the same way it did in 2017 and 2019.


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Yankees Thoughts: Can’t Be Satisfied Without 1-Seed

The Yankees are going to the postseason as the AL East champion. They need to go there as the 1-seed in the AL as well.

The Yankees finished the first “half” of the season with back-to-back wins and a series win over the Red Sox. After a lackluster previous week, the Yankees go into the All-Star break with a two-game winning streak, having outscored their rival 27-3 in their last games.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees are nine games into the second half of the season. Sunday was their 92nd game and 57 percent of their season has been played. They are going to the postseason. (They will never not make the postseason with 40 percent of the league getting in.) They are going to the postseason as AL East champions. They still need to go to the postseason as the 1-seed in the AL.

In recent years, the Yankees haven’t cared about how they got into the postseason, as long as they got in. When it was still a four-team format, they didn’t care about winning the division and having home-field advantage in the ALDS. When it became a five-team format for nine seasons, they didn’t mind having to play a one-game playoff to advance to the ALDS, and they did so four times, going 2-2. Now that it’s a six-team format, the only way to avoid the best-of-3 at the higher seed’s home is to win the division and have a better record than at least one of the other division winners. They have done that. The division was clinched a month ago, and once they won the division, their bye was clinched as the AL Central winner was never going to outplay the East winner or the Astros.

Now that the first two goals of the season have been achieved (winning he division and earning a bye to the best-of-5 ALDS), the next goal is to finish with the best record in the AL. If the Yankees want to finally get past the Astros in the playoffs, they’re going to need to play the most amount of games possible at Yankee Stadium in October. Having to play Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 in Houston has already not worked out twice for the Yankees, and based on the way the two teams match up and the way they have played each other this season, if the Yankees blow their 1-seed lead, I think we all now how a potential Yankees-Astros ALCS will play out.

2. The Yankees haven’t managed or played of late like they are concerned with holding off the Astros (who still have 16 games left against the A’s and Angels). The lineups have more resembled last-weekend-of-the-season-with-everything-clinched than the need to finish with the best record in the AL and baseball. The bullpen decisions have resembled the same. The way the Yankees have shown in the past that they believe getting into the postseason is more important than what seed you are when you get in, they are now showing they believe there’s no difference in being the 1-seed or the 2-seed. They couldn’t be more wrong.

3. The Yankees are nearly unbeatable at home, where they are an MLB-best 37-12. Here are their 12 home losses:

  1. 4-3 loss to the Red Sox, in which they left 12 runners on
  2. 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays and their kryptonite Alek Manoah, in which they brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth
  3. A 6-4 loss to the Blue Jays, in which they had the tying run at the plate in the ninth
  4. A 4-2 loss to the Rangers in the second game of a doubleheader, in which Michael King had his one bad game of the season blowing the lead in the seventh, and the Yankees still brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth
  5. A 3-1 loss to the White Sox, in which Aroldis Chapman gave up the go-ahead runs in the ninth
  6. A 5-0 loss to the White Sox, in which they were one-hit for the first seven innings
  7. A 6-4 loss to the Orioles, in which they blew a two-run lead and still brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth
  8. A 3-1 loss to the Astros, in which they had the winning run at the plate in the ninth
  9. A 3-0 loss to the Astros, in which they were no-hit
  10. A 4-3 loss to the Reds, in which they blew a 3-0 lead in the ninth in Clay Holmes’ one bad game of the season
  11. A 7-6 loss to Reds in 10 innings, in which they had the winning run on base in the 10th
  12. A 5-4 loss to the Red Sox in 11 innings, in which they left the bases loaded with no outs to win in the ninth and left the bases loaded with one out to win in the 10th

The Yankees have suffered two true home losses through 49 home games: the 5-0 shutout by the White Sox and the 3-0 no-hitter by the Astros. In the other 47 games, the Yankees have either won or lost because their two all-world relievers had their only bad games of the season, their highest-paid reliever melted down in the ninth or they stranded a billion runners or they. In 10 of the 12 losses, they had the tying run at the plate or on base in the ninth. The only exceptions being those two games against the White Sox and Astros.

Knowing all of this, how could you not do everything possible to earn home-field advantage through at least the AL playoffs? If the Yankees clinch the 1-seed and lose in the postseason, so be it. At least they put themselves in the best possible position to win in that aspect. If they blow the 1-seed and eventually lose on the road in the ALCS to the Astros, it will be completely unacceptable.

4. A lot of what Aaron Boone has done of late has been unacceptable, and as we grow closer to October and the postseason, my physical, emotional and mental states begin to deteriorate thinking about what he may or may not do in the biggest games.

If Boone could just make simple, logical lineup and in-game choices as manager of the Yankees, my life would be so much easier. My emotional, physical and mental health would be so much better. His life would be easier too, as would his emotional, physical and mental health. He wouldn’t have to constantly answer for his stupidity. He wouldn’t have to always be coming up with some asinine reason a move he made or tell blatant, easy-to-uncover lie about why he did what he did.

If Boone were to bring King into a tie game in the eighth inning and he were to allow the go-ahead run, then there’s nothing you can do. As long as it’s the right choice, I will never be upset at the decision. No Yankees fan should be. But rarely does Boone make the right choice in a situation in which he needs to make a choice.

5. In games in which his starter goes seven and has a lead and he can go to King and then Holmes, and he doesn’t have do anything, it’s beautiful and relieving. But when his starter doesn’t go seven, or when his offense doesn’t show up, or when it becomes a bullpen game in the fifth, situations like these rarely ever end well for the Yankees, and if they do, it’s because the offense does finally show up before it’s too late.

Last week at Fenway Park, Boone helped lead the Yankees to losses on both Saturday and Sunday. His late hooks, puzzling bullpen decisions and trying to run wild on the basepaths led to two miserable, unnecessary losses. This past Friday night, Boone was at it again at home against the Red Sox.

The Yankees were able to overcome an early two-run deficit and chase Nathan Eovaldi in the fifth in what was a 3-3 game. The Red Sox’ bullpen is atrocious (like much of their team outside of their 2-3-4 hitters), and once Jordan Montgomery was lifted after the sixth, it became a three-inning battle of the bullpens, a scenario the Yankees should never lose, especially against the Red Sox, and especially at home.

6. This was one of those times when the offense didn’t show. A lot of traffic (hat tip, Boone) with not much to show for it, just a three-run, opposite-field home run from Giancarlo Stanton. It was also a game in which Boone’s starter didn’t go seven and the team didn’t have the lead, so he couldn’t just put the game on autopilot and hand it over to King and Holmes. He would have to think. He would have to use his brain.

The first decision Boone’s brain made was to bring in Chapman. Chapman came off two weeks prior after missing more than a month with an “injury” and Boone said he would see low-leverage situations until he got back on track. After three OK performances in low-leverage situations, Boone brought him into a tie game in the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Three batters later, the Red Sox had the bases loaded with no outs and would plate the go-ahead run off Chapman in their eventual win. Three days later, Chapman threw 20 pitches in an inning against the Reds, and two days after, Boone was willing to use him yet again in a tie game against the Red Sox.

Prior to bringing Chapman in, King had been warming up. It’s likely if the Yankees had taken the lead in the bottom of the sixth, Boone would then go to King for two innings and Holmes for the ninth. But because the Yankees didn’t take the lead, Boone scrapped that plan, and went with Chapman. It took one batter, the very first batter Chapman faced for the game to be untied. Bobby Dalbec took him deep and the Red Sox had a 4-3 lead.

7. After Dalbec’s home run, Boone got King back up. What? The Yankees were now losing, and Boone wanted to go to King next if Chapman couldn’t get through the inning. Boone had already bypassed using King because the Yankees hadn’t taken the lead the half-inning before, but now he was willing to go to him when trailing? So King could pitch if the Yankees were winning or losing the game, but not if it were tied? It sounds preposterous, and yet it happened.

If ‘The Plan’ doesn’t work out (‘The Plan’ being starter for seven with the lead to King and Holmes), Boone has no fucking clue what to do. He’s lost. He freaks out and loses any semblance of intelligence, not just baseball intelligence, but all intelligence.

Chapman was able to get through that inning without further damage, and the Yankees still trailed 4-3 going into the top of the eighth. With the fearsome right-handed trio of Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts due up, if Boone was truly willing to go to King while trailing, this would be the spot: the scariest “lane” (hat tip, Boone) the Red Sox have to offer. (In the postseason, trailing by one run in the eighth inning of a game with this kind of lane, Holmes should be in. But for this situation King was the right choice.) Boone didn’t choose King. He didn’t choose any righty. He instead went with the left-handed Wandy Peralta, who just six days earlier couldn’t get out the Red Sox’ right-handed hitters, taking the loss at Fenway.

Peralta did manage to get through the inning unscathed, but it didn’t make it the right choice. Choosing to drive drunk and making it home safely doesn’t make it the right choice because it worked out. Staying with a 16 with the dealer showing a 10 and the dealer busting doesn’t make it the right choice because it worked out. Going to Peralta there and not having the deficit increase doesn’t make it the right choice.

The Yankees tied the game in the ninth because Tanner Houck couldn’t throw the ball accurately to third base on the worst sacrifice bunt attempt you will ever see by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and the Yankees were gifted the tying run. The Yankees ended up leaving the bases loaded with no one out in the ninth, and left them loaded with one out in the 10th, and lost 5-4 in 10 innings.

The Yankees lost the game because their offense scored three runs in the first eight innings, were able to tie the game on a gift error and then couldn’t score a runner from third with no outs and one out in back-to-back innings. Boone isn’t the reason they lost, but he played a role in the loss.

8. The Yankees’ offense is too inconsistent and too unpredictable that come October, the team can’t afford to have Boone play a role in losses. We have seen what the core of this offense tends to do in the postseason, and it’s not pretty. Boone will have to be near-perfect in October because that’s what it takes to win the World Series. You have to get hot, get lucky at times, get great starting pitching and timely hitting, and on top of all, have your manager push all the right buttons.

Everything Boone has done since Opening Day 2018 has been to prepare to win a championship. He has already failed four times at doing so. The lineup choices he has made in four-plus years and the bullpen decisions he has made over that same time haven’t changed much. The names have changed, but the choices and his lack of reasoning haven’t.

It was just three years ago that he was batting Brett Gardner third in the 2019 postseason and Edwin Encarnacion fourth, based on his unnecessary need to break up right-handed bats (Gardner) and his need to always bat former stars as high in the order as possible (Encarnacion). Last year, he married the idea of Hicks as the team’s 3-hitter in spring training to break up Judge and Stanton, a decision that was vehemently questioned from spring training right up until Hicks was dropped to the bottom-third of the lineup two weeks into the season. This year, he continues to bat Josh Donaldson fifth, ahead of Matt Carpenter, despite Donaldson being nothing more than a name at this point while Carpenter has produced at a Barry Bonds-like rate for two months. The names on the roster have changed, the similar decisions haven’t.

9. I’m extremely worried about what lineup the Yankees will generate for Game 1 of the ALDS in less than three months. I don’t think any Yankee fans would be surprised to see Donaldson batting fifth or sixth, Carpenter on the bench and Kyle Higashioka playing over Jose Trevino. I’m extremely worried about what bullpen decisions will be made when ‘The Plan’ doesn’t happen. Boone has already made these exact type of worrisome moves in the postseason in the past.

I’m talking about a guy whose starting pitching didn’t know what time Game 3 of the 2018 ALDS started. I’m talking about a guy who went to a non-strikeout starting pitcher with the bases loaded and no outs with the season on the line with Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green in the bullpen in that Game 3. I’m talking about a guy who let CC Sabathia face the entire Red Sox’ order a second time in Game 4 of that ALDS and put the Yankees in a 3-0 hole because the guy I’m talking about “liked the matchup” of Sabathia against Jackie Bradley, who bats ninth, so he let him go through the entire lineup again. I’m talking about a guy who benched Miguel Andujar and his .297/.328/.527 slash line, 27 home runs and 47 doubles for that elimination game and never used him as a pinch hitter. I’m talking about a guy who let J.A. Happ pitch until the Astros walked off the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2019 ALCS. I’m talking about a guy who used Zack Britton, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino in five of the six 2019 ALCs games, and then seemed surprised when Britton said they were all fatigued after the Yankees were eliminated. I’m talking about a guy who sat Gary Sanchez for Kyle Higashioka in five of the seven 2020 playoff games. I’m talking about a guy who tried to trick Kevin Cash and the Rays by pitching Deivi Garcia for one inning and then going to J.A. Happ in the second inning in the pivotal Game 2 of the 2020 ALDS. I’m talking about a guy who used Mike Ford (who was sent down in September due to production) as a pinch hitter over Sanchez and Clint Frazier in an elimination game. I’m talking about a guy who gave Gerrit Cole the ball for the 2021 one-game playoff, even though it was public knowledge Cole was dealing with a hamstring injury and then manage Cole’s outing as if the didn’t have a nagging hamstring injury and as if the Red Sox didn’t own him at Fenway Park, letting him give up three runs, two home runs, a double and two walks before relieving him with two on and no outs in the bottom of the third. I’m talking about a guy who let Luis Severino (in his second inning of work in his fifth appearance in essentially two years) put two on with no outs in the sixth inning of that game before removing him. I’m talking about a guy who let Jonathan Loaisiga issue his third walk in that game before going to another reliever. I’m talking about a guy who once again started Higashioka in an elimination game. I’m talking about a guy who used Rougned Odor as a pinch hitter before Sanchez in that elimination game and a guy who gave two at-bats in a one-game playoff to Odor. I’m talking about a guy who is managing in 2022 just like he did in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 but has received a historic run from his starting pitching, is getting an all-time season from his superstar center fielder and who has the best backend bullpen duo in the majors. I’m talking about a guy who didn’t become some managerial genius between the end of the team’s underwhelming, disappointing and embarrassing 2021 and the start of 2022. He’s the same guy, making the same unfathomable choices, and he’s very capable of ruining the Yankees’ best chance at ending the championship drought. Boone winning the AL Manager of the Year would be every bit as bad as Rick Porcello having won the 2016 AL Cy Young award. Boone isn’t the reason the Yankees are 64-28. He’s just along for the ride and all Yankees fans are hoping he doesn’t try to force himself into the driver’s seat and crash the season.

10. I want to like Boone and I want him to win. I want to believe he’s doing everything he can do obtain the 1-seed and avoid going on the road to Houston if it comes to that. I want him to manage as if the Yankees are still trying to achieve a goal, and not as if they’ve already achieved everything possible.

After the final out of Game 162, I will give Boone and whatever the roster looks like at that time a clean slate for the postseason, the same way I have done in every other season. That clean slate needs to come as the 1-seed in the AL.


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Yankees Thoughts: Frustrating Weekend at Fenway

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees could have and should have swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park this weekend. Sure, I would have signed up for splitting the series prior to first pitch on Thursday, but after blowing a late two-run lead on Saturday and not being able to protect two different four-run leads on Sunday, a split feels like shit.

If the Yankees simply had a couple bad games like any team does over the course of 162 and lost on Saturday and Sunday, so be it. It happens. But the way they lost the third and fourth games of the series (after nearly blowing a five-run lead in the series opener) left a bad taste in my mouth going into Monday’s scheduled day off.

This happens all too frequently with these Yankees as they have now won just three of eight games this season leading into a scheduled day off and are 13-16 in such games since the start of last season. I understand you sometimes have to lose the battle to win the war, but the Yankees haven’t won the war in going on 13 years because they have lost (or given away) too many battles.

2. There’s a very good chance the Yankees and Red Sox meet in the ALDS. That would mean Gerrit Cole against whichever Red Sox pitcher they didn’t have to burn in the best-of-3 wild-card series. It could be Cole against a fringe major leaguer only in the majors because of injuries like it was Josh Winckowksi on Thursday night and I wouldn’t feel confident. Cole has a Red Sox problem. He has a Fenway Park problem. He has a Rafael Devers.

Luckily, Cole would face the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in that situation. (Not like that’s so much better given what we saw from him on Opening Day in the Bronx, but it’s better.) The last time Cole pitched well against the Red Sox was on July 17, 2021 at Yankee Stadium. He went six innings and allowed one run with 11 strikeouts. His catcher? Gary Sanchez. Nothing to see here! Good thing Kyle Higashioka unnecessarily served as Cole’s personal catcher! Since that game it’s been a bunch of mediocre to dreadful starts for Cole against the Red Sox, including the one-game playoff, Opening Day and this past Thursday.

Cole will get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS no matter what. If he’s faces the Red Sox that night, I won’t feel good about it, but there’s nothing that can be done. Just have to hope the Cole that was paired with Sanchez last July against them shows up.

3. Thursday’s 6-5 win was a game the 2021 Yankees lose. Instead of having Michael King and Clay Holmes at the back of the bullpen, it would have been Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees’ five-run lead would have been completely erased. We saw that duo destroy leads in Boston exactly a year ago.

I trust King and Holmes as much as I have ever trusted any Yankees 8-9 combination and that includes Mariano Rivera’s career. Holmes isn’t susceptible to the long ball. He isn’t susceptible to the ball being hit in the air period, even lazy fly balls. In Saturday’s loss, Holmes gets charged with the blown save, but he did his job: he got Alex Verdugo to hit a ground ball. It’s not Holmes’ fault the Yankees shifted and the ball got through the vacated hole on the left side.

4. The Yankees lost on Saturday because they ran themselves into outs on the bases with Kyle Higashioka inexplicably trying to steal second, Joey Gallo unnecessarily going for an inside-the-park home run and Anthony Rizzo attempting to steal third with one out in the 10th inning. They lost because Aaron Boone wouldn’t go back to Holmes in the 10th, even though he had just gone a week with throwing only two pitches. They lost because Boone thought Wandy Peralta was the best choice in the 10th with only right-handed batters due up. They lost because Josh Donaldson booted what should have been a game-ending double play.

On Sunday, they lost because Boone sat back and let Jameson Taillon piss away two different four-run leads. Once the second four-run lead was erased, Boone handed the ball to Aroldis Chapman in a tie game at Fenway Park, just days removed from saying Chapman would only pitch in low-leverage situations until he sorted himself out. Three batter later, the bases were loaded with no one out.

5. Later in the game on Sunday, Boone got ejected for arguing balls and strikes. I had second-hand embarrassment for Boone as he yelled at home plate umpire Tripp Gibson, “That’s fucking ball 6!,” after Giancarlo Stanton struck out looking. Boone wasn’t wrong. Hirokazu Sawamura threw six pitches to Stanton and they were all outside the zone. Stanton took all of them and was called out on strikes. But it wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone sat back and watched Taillon blow two different four-run leads and allow six earned runs in five innings. It wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone went to Chapman who immediately gave the Red Sox the lead. It was a bad look for the Yankees manager in a game and weekend full of bad looks for him.

Boone is an idiot. We have known this since the first series of his managerial career with his bullpen decisions in Toronto in 2018. Those decisions foreshadowed what would come that postseason and in the following seasons. Boone’s idiocy has been mostly masked this season by the incredible first half the starting pitching provided, Aaron Judge’s MVP campaign and the combination of King and Holmes. Even with the best rotation in baseball, the best player in baseball (this season) and the best back-end duo in baseball, Boone still can’t help himself show his true colors regularly. Boone isn’t a different manager in 2022, his players have just performed better. And for some reason when he opposes the Red Sox and Alex Cora, he can’t help himself from looking like a fool.

6. After the Astros series, I wrote the following about Taillon:

I have always planned on having Jameson Taillon out of the rotation for the postseason and his start on Thursday solidified my opinion. The Yankees are most likely to see the Red Sox, Rays or Blue Jays in the ALDS. While he has pitched well against the Rays and Blue Jays, I still wouldn’t trust him in a postseason games against those teams and in no way would I trust him against the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts Red Sox trio. Under no circumstance could he ever possibly start a playoff game against the Astros.

Since his start against the Astros, this is his line in four starts:

21 IP, 30 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 3 BB, 17 K, 7 HR, 8.57 ERA, 1.571 WHIP

That includes two poor starts against the worst-team-in-the-majors A’s and on the on-pace-for-94-losses Pirates.

Taillon was awful on Sunday night. He blew two different four-runs leads and allowed six earned runs in five innings, including three home runs. What did Boone think about Taillon’s latest egg?

“I thought he threw the ball really well,” Boone said. “There was a lot of conviction. There were a lot of good pitches. The stuff was quality.”

Again, he gave up three home runs and couldn’t hold a 4-0 or 6-2 lead. The stuff was quality!

Taillon can’t get a postseason start. He shouldn’t even get a postseason roster spot. If he’s not starting, what role would he have? Long men aren’t used in playoff games since every out is vital (don’t tell that to Joe Girardi who used Luis Ayala twice in the 2011 ALDS before using David Robertson once), and he doesn’t have the stuff to be a back-end reliever since he doesn’t have strikeout stuff. He can sit next to me in the stands and watch the postseason. Or he can sit in the dugout in his uniform and watch it. Either way, he can’t be a part of it.

7. Matt Carpenter needs to be a part of it. In Thursday’s Yankees Thoughts, I begged for the Yankees to make Carpenter an everyday player because he had earned it, and I believe in putting the best team on the field, and don’t believe in the Yankees’ philosophy of putting the team that’s owed the most money on the field.

Carpenter has now been an everyday player for all of July. He’s not filling in for injured regulars like he was when he signed for the Rays series back at the end of May. And as an everyday player in July, he’s hitting .464/.516/.964 with six runs, two doubles, for home runs, nine RBIs and two walks in 31 plate appearances. Over the weekend in Boston, he went a comical 7-for-14 with four runs, a double, two home runs, four RBIs, two walks and hit .500/.588/1.000. He hasn’t been great. He’s been Barry Bonds.

There’s no way Carpenter can go back to being a once-a-week-player like he was in June. After Judge, he’s the hitter I trust most on the Yankees. He works long counts, only swings at strikes and seems to be on base in every plate appearance. There’s a strong case to be made that Carpenter and not Rizzo should be batting third for the Yankees. If he keeps up even half of this production, that move should be made. Again, I care about creating the best possible roster and lineup. I don’t care about money owed, years owed on current contracts or manager-player relationships. I care about winning. If the Yankees did the same, the team wouldn’t be trying to win it’s first championship in 13 years.

8. It’s going to be hard to win that championship with Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the team’s starting shortstop. The Isiah Kiner-Falefa Stopgap Experiment has run its course. Over the weekend, Kiner-Falefa faced mostly minor-league pitching and went 1-for-12 with a walk. He had a magnificent play at shortstop on Saturday, but negated it by throwing away an easy, routine play on Sunday. He can’t be trusted at the plate to do anything other than hit a weak grounder on the first or second pitch of his at-bat. In the field he can’t be trusted to make even the most routine play.

I have no problem with Kiner-Falefa. He didn’t ask to be traded to the Yankees and used as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. I have a problem with the Yankees for choosing him to be their starting shortstop. I will have an enormous problem if he’s the starting shortstop come the ALDS in October.

It won’t be impossible to win the World Series with Kiner-Falefa in the lineup, but it won’t be easy. The Yankees would essentially be playing with a near-automatic out in their lineup at a time when each out is so valuable. They will also lose another bat to keep Kiner-Falefa in the lineup.

If the Yankees don’t make any moves and keep their current roster, these bats could potentially play in October:

1. Jose Trevino
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. DJ LeMahieu
4. Gleyber Torres
5. Josh Donaldson
6. Matt Carpenter
7. Aaron Judge
8. Gianarlo Stanton
9. Aaron Hicks

If it were me, I would use those nine names to create a lineup. I would put Torres back at shortstop over Kiner-Falefa. The Yankees aren’t going to do that. No matter how many routine plays Kiner-Falefa fails to make (like he did on Sunday night), he’s going to play short if the roster remains the same. To me, that would mean sitting Hicks down. But in order to sit Hicks down, a general manager, front office and manager who absolutely adore Hicks for unknown reasons would have to agree to not play him.

The Yankees had their chance in the offseason to sign a real shortstop. They didn’t. So now Yankees fans need to pray Peraza continues to break out at Triple-A and forces the Yankees to give him an extended look in the majors. Otherwise Kiner-Falefa will play in October and someone who’s an actual major leaguer that can help the team win the World Series won’t.

9. On Saturday, Hicks’ OPS reached .700 for the first time since May 4. Congratulations to Hicks on that achievement. He has three home runs in his last 32 plate appearances after having three in his first 235 plate appearances. I have seen the idea floated that Hicks’ wrist is finally regaining its strength and that his power is returning. I wish that were true.

Hicks’ three July home runs have come against Josh VanMeter, Winckowski and Kutter Crawford. VanMeter is a utility position player for the Pirates and not a pitcher. Winckowski has 31 career innings to his name. Crawford has 32 career innings to his name. Hicks saw something resembling a major-league pitcher on Sunday in Nick Pivetta (who does truly suck) and went 0-for-3 with a walk.

The same goes for Josh Donaldson. Donaldson homered on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. He hit them against Mitch Keller, Winckowski and Connor Seabold. His other six home runs this year have come against Travis Lakins, Cal Quantrill, Tanner Banks, Matt Foster and Felix Bautista. The only name of those nine that might throw a pitch in the postseason is Quantrill, but his Guardians are currently under .500, don’t hold a playoff spot and have a worse record than the Orioles.

I want Hicks and Donaldson to play well. Hicks is under contract for three more years and Donaldson for next year. The two them meeting expectations would help the Yankees win the World Series. But I’m not about to get excited for the two of them mashing position players pitching and a bunch of fringe major leaguers making spot starts.

10. For the division, this past weekend didn’t matter. The Yankees’ lead remains an insurmountable 14 games, and the Rays and Blue Jays have both lost three and four straight respectively. What this weekend did matter for was having the best record in the American League, which the Yankees still do, but now only have a 4 1/2-game edge over the extremely hot Astros.

A little over a week ago when the Yankees went to Houston and scored one run it was nothing new. That’s what they do in Houston, and that type of performance against the Astros’ fourth-best starter should be worrisome to the Yankees and should be a reminder that winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is imperative.

The Yankees didn’t have home-field in either the 2017 ALCS or 2019 ALCS. A potential Yankees-Astros 2022 ALCS will likely end the same way if Games 1, 2, 4 and 7 are played in Houston.


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Yankees Thoughts: Play Matt Carpenter, Call Up Estevan Florial

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled game in Houston.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. A little more than a week off from the Thoughts and not much has happened. The Yankees swept the A’s (as they should), scored one run in a loss in Houston (as they always do), beat up on the Guardians (as they should) and then had one anemic offensive performance in Pittsburgh and one outstanding offensive performance in Pittsburgh. I would say the last 10 games have gone exactly as expected. No surprises.

2. I was surprised on Wednesday when the lineup for the second game of the two-game series against the Pirates was announced. This was the lineup Aaron Boone put together on Wednesday:

DJ LeMahieu
Aaron Judge
Matt Carpenter
Giancarlo Stanton
Gleyber Torres
Josh Donaldson
Joey Gallo
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Kyle Higashioka

3. Matt Carpenter played in his first game as a Yankee on May 26, which was the team’s 45th game. Wednesday night’s game against the Pirates was the team’s 82nd game. Since his playing in his first game with the Yankees, the team has played 38 games. Wednesday was his 12th start.

Carpenter started on June 3 and then started again nine days later on June 12. He started on June 22 and then not again until July 2. He has had two stretches of at least nine days in which he didn’t start a game, despite being able to play first base, third base and right field, on a team whose third baseman has been absolutely atrocious and whose outfield has been Aaron Judge and sometimes Giancarlo Stanton, when he’s allowed to play the outfield.

So Carpenter isn’t good enough to start more than once in every three games on average, but when he does play he’s good enough to bat third?

4. It was refreshing to see Boone finally move Donaldson down to sixth in the order. He’s not deserving of batting that high either, but when the 7 through 9 is Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka, Donaldson has to hit sixth.

Donaldson hit his seventh home run of the season on Wednesday night in the team’s 82nd game. Since it was the Yankees’ first game in the official second half of the season, by hitting that home run Donaldson increased his 2022 pace from 12 to 14 if he were to play in remaining every game (which he won’t.) So unless Donaldson gets “hot,” he’s going to post a single-season low for home runs. (His previous low is 24.)

After Donaldson’s home run in Pittsburgh, the YES broadcast made sure to comment that Boone said he has liked Donaldson’s at-bats of late. A little puzzling since Boone and the Yankees have made it clear in the past they don’t believe in the concept of players being “hot,” and if they don’t believe in it, then none of his recent at-bats should have any correlation to his at-bat resulting in the home run on Wednesday.

Donaldson has hit four doubles and now the home run (which was his second since May 16) in his last eight games. So if Boone thinks his at-bats have been better of late then why is he hitting .226/.242/.452 in those games. The .694 OPS over his last eight games is pretty much in line with his season totals of .226/.313/.387 and a .700 OPS.

5. A .700 OPS is abysmal, especially for a player with an .863 career OPS who the Yankees owe $24 million to this season and next. (I’m not upset with Donaldson for being traded to the Yankees and immediately being washed up at age 36. That’s on the Yankees for making a trade for a 36-year-old, oft-injured third baseman.) If you want to say he’s an above-average player in 2022 based on OPS+ (101) or wRC+ (102) because offense is down for the league, well that’s bullshit. A player of Donaldson’s resume, salary and treatment shouldn’t be hovering around the league-average 100 line. He shouldn’t need to be defended and excused because “offense is down around the league.”

6. Again, I’m not upset with Donaldson. The trade was foolish the day it happened and looks even more foolish with the results of the players involved since: Donaldson has been awful, Kiner-Falefa has been awful and Ben Rortvedt has been hurt all year. I’m not defending Gio Urshela (who has been a better player than Donaldson in 2022 at one-fourth the cost) or Gary Sanchez. The Yankees could have moved both of those players in other deals. They chose to move them to acquire Donaldson and his $48 million and Kiner-Falefa, whose rarely capable of hitting the ball out of the infield. The money owed to Donaldson shouldn’t matter since we’re talking about the Yankees, but it does matter because we’re talking about the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees and Donaldson’s salary will hinder them at this trade deadline and for building the 2023 roster. The Yankees chose to pass on Carlos Correa, who is having an awesome season, and allowed the Twins to free up the money needed to sign Correa by absorbing Donaldson’s $48 million. Through one half of the season, the entire deal has been a disaster for the Yankees.

Maybe the second half of the season will be a different story. Maybe Donaldson won’t unnecessarily bat in the Top 5 in the order with a sub-.700 OPS. Maybe Kiner-Falefa will make the routine plays at shortstop and not create one (or two) outs on the first or second pitch of every at-bat. I’m not expecting either to turn it around as the season gets older (and Donaldson gets older with it). I expect Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter. Well, I don’t expect it since we’re talking about the Yankees and reputation and money owed is more important than actual productions or wins, but I want Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter.

7. As for Kiner-Falefa, I fear that the Yankees plan on him being the everyday shortstop for the rest of the season. They were willing to pass on every available free-agent shortstop to use Kiner-Falefa as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. So unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres back to short (they’re not) or play Marwin Gonzalez every day (they’re not) then the only option to upgrade at short is for Peraza (very unlikely) or Volpe (pretty much impossible) to force the Yankees to call them up. It’s unlikely for Peraza and nearly impossible for Volpe because the Yankees don’t want to rush either, and neither has had a season worthy of a major-league call-up. They have both been good of late, but they’re still seemingly not close to being the answer yet.

8. The Yankees could have an answer to one of the three automatic outs in their lineup in Estevan Florial. The 24-year-old outfielder is having a breakout season at Triple-A, finally putting it all together with a .905 OPS. He’s deserving of a call-up and of getting a chance in the majors.

The Yankees have been and will continue to be connected to the Royals’ Andrew Benintendi and the Cubs’ Ian Happ, but before needing to go out and deplete the farm even more to acquire an answer to Gallo after already trading away four pieces from the farm a year ago to acquire Gallo, Florial should get a chance. The answer could already be in the organization. A 24-year-old, left-handed-hitting center fielder, who the Yankees have been grooming and waiting on since 2015!

Call up Florial and play him every day for the remainder of July and see what you have. Even that’s not the greatest sample size of everyday playing time in the majors, but it’s better than the current situation of him hitting bombs in Triple-A while Gallo and Hicks strike out, ground out and pop up pitches in the majors.

9. The Yankees have two in-house fixes to ridding themselves of two automatic outs in the lineup by playing Carpenter regularly and calling up Florial. The only way to rid themselves of the third is for all Yankees fans to collectively pray that Peraza goes off for the next month in Triple-A the way Florial has of late and then the Yankees will be forced to try something other than letting Kiner-Falefa hit a weak ground ball to short on the first or second pitch of every at-bat of his.

Living with one automatic out in the lineup is doable. It’s not ideal, but it’s doable. It’s less doable than it was entering the season when Yankees fans thought they were getting a Gold Glove at short with a contact-approach bat in the 9-hole, since what Yankees fans got was a slight upgrade from Gleyber Torres at short with a weak-contact-only bat. But I guess it’s doable.

10. The Yankees buried the Red Sox in the AL East long ago. The Red Sox haven’t had a chance to win the division in months. Over the next 10 days, the Yankees can severely hurt the Red Sox’ playoff chances as well.

The Yankees will play the Red Sox four times this weekend and three times next weekend. The Red Sox’ pitching staff is in shambles, their bullpen sucks, and if you don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat you, the Red Sox won’t beat you.

If these Yankees want to avoid the possibility of being eliminated by the Red Sox in the postseason for the third time in five years, they can make sure the Red Sox don’t get to the postseason by beating up on them for the next two weekends and in their 16 remaining games against them this season.


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Yankees Thoughts: Jose Trevino’s Roster Spot Doesn’t Need Upgrade

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

The Yankees continued their historic season, winning two of three against the Rays in Tampa to improve their league-best record to 51-18.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees went to Tampa needing to win one game. They won two, and nearly won all three, taking yet another series from the Rays and improving to 7-3 on the season against the Rays. In recent seasons, that’s a series the Yankees lose and possibly get swept in. But not this season. Not in 2022. Not with this pitching staff and not with the magic that seems to follow the offense as they nearly always come through with the big hit at the right moment. And even when they don’t, like in the second games of the seres in which they lost 5-4, they still had a chance to win the game, and almost tied it with two outs in the ninth when Aaron Judge just missed hitting a game-tying home run to left field.

2. It’s very good news that Gerrit Cole has learned to beat the Rays. After his 2020 and 2021 seasons against them (and against the Red Sox and Blue Jays) I was extremely fearful Cole couldn’t beat the teams the Yankees needed him to beat the most. But this season against the Rays, he has been outstanding, culminating in him nearly throwing a no-hitter in the series opener on Monday.

3. Nestor Cortes wasn’t good on Tuesday and Jordan Montgomery turned in his worst start of the season on Wednesday. Both of them got hammered by Isaac Paredes, who hit four home runs in the series and who the Rays acquired from Detroit for Austin Meadows. The Rays traded away one player who destroyed the Yankees in Meadows and received Paredes who apparently destroys them. At the time , the Rays got crushed for the deal. Now Paredes has an .817 OPS, while Meadows has no home runs in 147 plate appearances. Just like the Evan Longoria, Chris Archer and Blake Snell deals, the Rays always make the right deal and move on from their players at the right time. For once, I would like them to get fleeced in a trade.

4. It didn’t matter that the starting pitching wasn’t good outside of Cole in the series, as the offense did just enough in the other two games to win two of three. The first game was a 4-2 Yankees win. The second was a 5-4 Yankees loss. The third was a 5-4 Yankees win. One game decided by two runs (and tied entering the ninth) and the other two decided by one run (both of which came down to the ninth). Again, in recent seasons, the Yankees don’t win those games. But this iteration of the Yankees with their league-best rotation, league-best backend relievers and timely hitting (led by Judge’s MVP season) have rolled over the Rays this season in terms of wins despite playing nearly all close games.

Here are the scores of the Yankees-Rays games this season:

7-2 Yankees
2-0 Yankees
3-1 Rays
4-2 Rays
2-0 Yankees
4-3 Yankees
2-1 Yankees
4-2 Yankees
5-4 Rays
5-4 Yankees

Nine of the 10 games have been decided by two runs or less and four have been decided by one run.

Over the last few seasons, the Rays had created a team perfectly built to beat the Yankees with a pitching staff full of hard-throwing righties. Well, the Yankees have countered the Rays by building a much better version of the Rays, now capable of winning these low-scoring games the Rays live off of. That was the last time these two teams will see each before the All-Star break.

5. When the All-Star break comes, Jose Trevino better not be spending it at home with his family. He better be spending in Los Angeles with his family at Dodger Stadium.

Jose Trevino is the man and his All-Star candidacy shouldn’t be in question. The Blue Jays’ Alejandro Kirk is deserving of being the starting catcher for the American League, but when he gets pulled from the game, Trevino should be the next catcher in. With his clutch, two-run home run in the eighth inning on Wednesday, Trevino is now hitting .283/.339/.478 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in 45 games and 124 plate appearances. It’s not his fault he’s 17th in plate appearances among AL catchers. That’s Aaron Boone’s fault as Boone continues to give his catchers equal playing time despite the fact one of them is an All-Star and one of them is barely in the league.

Not only did Trevino hit the go-ahead home run, he also had another hit in the game, and picked off Taylor Walls at third base with the bases loaded and two outs and the Rays threatening to put the game out of reach. Two nights earlier, in the series opener, it was Trevino hustling down the line on a ball hit in the infield with two outs to give the Yankees a 2-0 and it was his sacrifice fly in the ninth of that game that gave the Yankees a much-needed insurance run in their 4-2 win.

Trevino does it all. He’s the best framer in the game. He’s allowed just two passed balls. He’s thrown out 33 percent of would-be basestealers. He hits clutch home runs. He puts the ball in play. He always hustles and he always says the right thing when speaking with the media. He’s an easy player to root for and it’s obvious why he’s become a fan favorite.

6. It’s the play of players like Trevino and Judge and the starting pitching and the back end of the bullpen that has produced a 51-18 record record for the Yankees. And it’s the play of those players and pitchers that has allowed players like Kyle Higashioka (who has been better of late, but still overall horrible), Aaron Hicks (who has also been better of late, but still has two home runs and three doubles through 43 percent of the season), Joey Gallo, Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to get somewhat of a free pass and avoid immense criticism and scrutiny. But that’s what I’m here for and I’m not giving them a free pass.

Barring an amazing turnaround, it looks like the end is near for Gallo as a Yankee. When he was acquired by the Yankees, he batted second in his first few games. For the last month, except for a handful of times, he has batted ninth. He bats behind bats like Hicks, Higashioka and Kiner-Falefa. He rarely plays against left-handed pitching, and within the last few series, he has been pinch hit for on multiple occasions, including by Trevino. And as you read just a few moments ago, I love Trevino. But a guy you expected to hit in the Top 4 spots in the order and a guy you gave away four prospects for shouldn’t be getting pinch hit for by a catcher you acquired for depth right before Opening Day.

Gallo has gone from 2-hitter to 9-hitter to platoon hitter to being pinch hit for by a catcher. The next place for him to go is somewhere other than the Yankees. The trade deadline is in 41 days. Unless he becomes the exact player the Yankees thought hey were trading for, I don’t see how he’s a Yankees at the end of the day on August 2.

7. Fortunately, for Hicks, he’s under contract for next season … and the season after that … and the season after that … and then will get bought out and paid to not play for the Yankees in 2026. If not for the money owed to him, he might be on his way out as well. He likely would have been out a while ago given his combination of injuries and lack of production since 2019. Hicks is here to stay. Unless there’s some team out there dumb enough and foolish enough to take him and his owed money. (Please be some team dumb enough and foolish enough to take Hicks and his contract.) And owed money is why he’s still a Yankee and why he still plays. Owed money and name are more important than actual production for the Yankees.

8. Donaldson has both. He has the owed money in that he Yankees are paying him $24 million this season and $24 million next season, and he has the name in that he’s a former AL MVP (even if that was seven years ago, which is a long fucking time ago in baseball). But Donaldson has been absolutely atrocious as a Yankee. He’s hitting .233/.327/.386. His batting average is 35 percentage points below his career average. His on-base percentage is 28 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 114 points below his career average. His .714 OPS is both embarrassing and 141 points below his career average. He has six home runs and is on pace to hit 14 if he plays every game for the rest of the season. That would be the lowest single-season home run total of his career.

Donaldson is 36 years old. He will be 37 and four months for Opening Day 2023. Prior to becoming a a Yankee, he was one of the hitters I feared most in the majors against the Yankees because you knew every at-bat would be six or seven pitches and would likely result in him hitting the ball hard somewhere and you just hoped it was hit right at a fielder. Now he’s a free-swinging, undisciplined shell of himself. He’s behind 0-2 in every count and nearly all of his at-bats result in a strikeout, ground ball to third or popup in the infield.

Matt Carpenter is a better play than Donaldson is right now. The difference is Carpenter had to revitalize his career over the offseason and accept playing in Triple-A to prove he could still play, whereas Donaldson had two years left on major-league deal. Donaldson is in no way deserving of playing over Carpenter right now, but he will continue to do so. And for anyone who thinks Carpenter should continue to just be a once-a-week player because he’s good at it, that’s like saying Luis Severino should have remained a reliever after 2016 because he was good at it or should have been in the bullpen this season because he was good at it last season.

There’s a good chance Donaldson is finished. Given his advanced baseball age and his recent injury history and his lack of power, it wouldn’t be surprising if he is. Given his owed money and name, he’s going to get endless chances to prove he isn’t.

9. The Twins were able to get the Yankees to take Donaldson and the $48 million owed to him and Kiner-Falefa (who they didn’t want and who the Rangers so badly didn’t want they g ave a half-billion dollars to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) and then used the freed up shortstop position and money saved on Donaldson to sign Carlos Correa. All Correa has done on his short-term deal (which is exactly what the Yankees were looking for) is hit .293 with an .820 OPS this season, while Kiner-Falefa tries to make an out as quickly as possible in each of his plate appearances. He does put the ball in play though! He may be in the first percentile of barreling balls in the majors and the seventh percentile of hard-hit percentage, but he puts the ball in play! Who cares if “in play” means a weak grounder to short!

Kiner-Falefa was sold to Yankees fans as a Gold Glove defender. Yes, he won a Gold Glove … at third base. The problem is he plays shortstop for the Yankees and the bigger problem is that he botches routine plays frequently. I trust him no more than I trusted Gleyber Torres at the position, and I would be willing to put Torres back there to free up the lineup spot it would free up by not playing Kiner-Falefa. With Kiner-Falefa’s bat, he needs to be Omar Vizquel at shortstop.

10. I can’t imagine the Yankees are going to try to win the World Series with all of these players getting regular and everyday playing time in October. I can’t imagine they won’t move on from some of them this summer and I can’t imagine they won’t upgrade the roster and put the team in the best possible position to succeed in October. Something they didn’t do in either 2019 or 2020 when they made zero trades at the deadline in both of those seasons.

The Yankees are good enough to win the World Series as currently constructed. Obviously, since they are a league-best 51-18. But they could win 120-plus games in the regular season and if they were to lose a short series to the Blue Jays, Rays or Astros I don’t think anyone would be surprised. Winning the division (which they have already done) and getting the 1-seed in the playoffs and avoiding the best-of-3 wild-card series (which they have already done) were needed goals to help put them in the best possible to succeed in October. The next step is upgrading the roster and making sure come October there aren’t as many as four below-league-average bats in the lineup.

Come October, whatever the team accomplished in the regular season will be meaningless if they don’t finish the job with a championship. And the team they will see over the next four days at the Stadium will likely be the team they have to finally overcome to get to where they want to be.


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