Blogs – Page 88 – Keefe To The City

Jan 20, 2021

Rangers Thoughts: One Step Forward, One Step Backward

After the Rangers’ disappointing loss to the Devils, they’re going to have to get back on track against the Penguins this weekend, and it won’t be easy.

The Rangers should have won on Tuesday night. They controlled play for the majority of the game and had many opportunities to either take the lead (when it was 1-1 in the second) or tie the game (when it was 4-3 in the third), but they couldn’t get the one goal to change the game. The Rangers answered their season-opening letdown against the Islanders with an impressive win over the Islanders two nights later. After their disappointing loss to the Devils, the Rangers are going to have to get back on track against the Penguins this weekend, and it won’t be easy.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Rangers.

1. I should have known better. I should have known the Rangers wouldn’t follow up their impressive shutout win over the Islanders from Saturday with a strong start on Tuesday against the Devils. The Rangers still aren’t there in terms of starting games the way they should or coupling back-to-back 60-minute games and I need to accept that. I think the reason I haven’t accepted it is because of those 16 wins in 22 games a year ago at this time that made the Rangers appear to have arrived earlier than expected. But sandwiched around that magical run was a rocky, inconsistent first few months to last season and the same kind of play right before the regular season was shut down. That inconsistent effort expected from a rebuilding team showed up again in the postseason in the three-game sweep by Carolina.

2. If you take away the 16 wins in 22 games, the Rangers have been what you would expect a rebuilding team to be since the beginning of last season. Take away those 22 games and you have a 20-23-4 record (including postseason), which is in line with what you would think a team with the Rangers’ youth, inexperience and poor defense would have. Those 22 games might have been a mirage since their only “impressive” win in that span was in the first game of the 22 against Colorado in Igor Shesterkin’s debut. (They did beat the eventual Eastern Conference runner-up Islanders three times during those 22 games, but they’re the Islanders, and the Rangers owned them last season.)

3. That’s not to say the Rangers were bad on Tuesday against the Devils. They controlled play for the majority of the game and outshot their cross-river rival 50-28. But in the minutes the Rangers didn’t control the play or had lapses, the Devils took advantage every time, beginning just 32 seconds into the game on a Travis Zajac goal. That’s now a goal against within the opening minutes of two of three games this season.

4. Mika Zibanejad tied the game with a power-play goal 2:50 into the second, but then Jack Hughes quickly answered with a pair of goals in less than six minutes. After a tough rookie season (21 points in 61 games) as the No. 1 overall selection, Hughes looked like a completely different player at the Garden. He had an assist to go with his two goals, was involved in nearly every play and all over the ice. He was Matthew Barzal-like with the puck in the offensive zone and he’s quickly becoming a player who you can’t wait for his shift to end. I was hoping Hughes turned into a bust for the sake of rooting for the Rangers, but unfortunately, that’s not going to be the case. He already has six points in three games this season or 29 percent of his point total from last season.

5. The No. 1 pick this year, Alexis Lafrenière is still looking for his first NHL point, but he has looked good, when he has been allowed to look good. And by allowed, I mean when he’s on the ice with high-caliber players he should be on the ice with. That means Artemi Panarin and/or Mika Zibanejad. Lafrenière should be getting Top 6 minutes every single game to go along with PP1 minutes. That means removing Ryan Strome from PP1.

6. Strome doesn’t belong on the first unit. He doesn’t belong in the team’s Top 6. His career year last season was made possible by playing a full season with Panarin. Micheal Haley could have scored 40 points being on the ice with Panarin as often as Strome was. The power-play units don’t need balance and there’s no need to stash Lafrenière or even Kaapo Kakko on the second unit, so Strome can continue to turn over the puck or look completley out of place talent-wise with the rest of the first.

7. It’s going to be very, very bad if Zibanejad is injured and forced to miss time after losing an edge and sliding into the boards in the third period on Tuesday. He’s either the most important or second-most important player on the Rangers (to me, he’s the second-most important), and they can’t afford to navigate this shortened season against the competition of the East without him. Here’s to seeing him back in the lineup on Friday in Pittsburgh.

8. Unfortunately, David Quinn’s never-ending line shuffling coupled with his not wanting to put Panarin and Zibanejad togther unless the team desperately needs a goal in the final minutes of the third period continues. Maybe if the two were playing together for an entire game, the team wouldn’t be trailing in the third period. In the brief time the two were on the ice together at even strength in the third period against the Devils, the puck didn’t leave New Jersey’s zone. The Rangers could have that kind of offense for an entire game if Quinn would recognize what he has and what he’s wasting.

9. As we saw from the Devils (even though the Rangers outplayed them), there won’t be any nights or games off in this division. The Devils and Sabres were expected to be the two worst teams in the East, and they haven’t looked like it after a week. Both teams are much improved and both teams are going to be a problem all season. There isn’t an easy part of the schedule this season and the four straight games against the Devils later in the season is going to be the equivalent of playoff series.

10. The magic number is 1.2 points per game. That’s the number I will continue to write and talk about all season because if you want the Rangers to reach the postseason, that’s the number it’s going to take to get there (or something just below that number). Through three games, the Rangers are 2.6 points under pace, more than a full win and loser point under where they need to be. The Flyers, Capitals, Devils and Islanders have been able to hold that pace through the first week of the season and they currently hold the four East postseason spots. Sure, we’re only five percent of the way into the Rangers’ season and a big weekend in Pittsburgh could get them right back on track, but needing a big weekend in Pittsburgh with the way the Penguins just played in two games against the Capitals isn’t something that should be counted on.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New Rangers episodes after every game throughout the season.

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Offseason

Jan 19, 2021

Is Yankees’ Roster Finalized?

The Yankees are going to try to win in 2021 with nearly the same team from 2020. It’s a wild, ill-advised and irresponsible plan for a team in a supposed championship window, but it’s the Yankees’ plan.

The Yankees weren’t good enough to win the World Series in 2020. They weren’t good enough to get out of the division series. They weren’t even good enough to win the division in the regular season. And it looks like they are going to try to erase their soon-to-be-12-year championship drought with nearly the same roster in 2021.

During the 2010s, when the Yankees failed to reach the World Series for the first time in a decade since the 1910s, the team would use corny slogans to try to depict the organization and help boost ticket sales. Everyone remembers “Pride. Power. Pinstripes.” and “Our History. Your Tradition” and “A Timeless Legacy” from in-game commercials on YES. Well, if there’s a new one for 2021, it might as well be “Complacency” or maybe “Luxury-Tax Threshold.”

The Yankees have grown complacent since their last championship with the goal of simply getting in the playoffs, not caring how they get there. Home-field advantage doesn’t seem to matter for a team that keeps losing because of it, and having a strong, durable rotation or a lineup that can frequently put the ball in play aren’t important either.

Brian Cashman has made it clear the Yankees’ goal is to reach the playoffs and then hope to have luck and random chance on their side once they get there. Many times Cashman has called the playoffs a crapshoot, which means the general manager thinks the Yankees were just one really, really, really lucky team in four out of the five years from 1996 through 2000. They were extremely fortunate to have the dice land the way they did in 2009 as well.

It’s obvious the Yankees are doing everything they can to stay under the luxury-tax threshold for 2021 and have to avoid forfeiting an amount of money that’s probably equal to a homestand’s worth of Coors Light sales in the at the Stadium. (If Coors Light was $12 in 2019, what’s it going to be the next time fans are allowed to attend games with all of the supposed lost revenue the Yankees have suffered? $15? $18? $20?!) DJ LeMahieu’s contract says as much with the Yankees spreading his $90 million across six years rather than the expected four or even five. Their decision to replicate their pre-2008 season plans by possibly having both Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt in their rotation like they did Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy also makes it clear: avoid the luxury-tux penalty.

That means the team you see today (with LeMahieu and Corey Kluber counted as sure-things even though the team has yet to announce either as officially signed) is the team you will see on Opening Day. You can probably add Brett Gardner as well though it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees are prepared to replace an inevitably injured Aaron Hicks or Aaron Judge with Mike Tauchman and Greg Allen. But after Gardner, that’s it. There’s barely enough room under the luxury-tax threshold to add Gardner and have space for any in-season call-ups or potential trade acquisitions. Then again, after the Yankees stood completely pat during the 2020 deadline when they had glaring weaknesses and needs, why would they be active at the 2021 deadline, especially with no wiggle room before the penalty.

When Cashman finally decided to pull the plug on Sonny Gray as a Yankee because Cashman’s pitching department couldn’t tap into the pitcher who David Ortiz referred to in 2015 as “the toughest guy I’ve faced in the last few seasons,” Cashman said the following: “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.”

Each time Cashman has had a chance to put the Yankees over the top in the last four seasons, he has failed to do so and ownership has failed to allow him to do so. The Yankees could have had Justin Verlander at the August 2017 deadline, but they didn’t want to take on his salary. So he went to the Astros and single-handedly swung the ALCS with wins in Games 2 and 6.

The 2017 Yankees came within one win of the World Series after not trading for Verlander, and then they decided to cut payroll by $50 million for 2018. The Red Sox and Dodgers greatly outspent them that season, and guess which two teams met in the 2018 World Series?

Cashman tried to bolster the team’s staff for 2019 by trading top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield for the oft-injured James Paxton, who had never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in a season in his career, a career which had been and still is one long injured-list stint with some innings in between rather than the other way around. In two seasons with the Yankees, Paxton was bad then hurt then good then hurt then bad then hurt again. The 24-year-old, left-handed Sheffield didn’t miss a start for the 2020 Mariners, pitched to a 3.58 ERA and 3.17 FIP and allowed only two home runs in 55 1/3 innings. The Yankees could have used that arm against the Rays in the ALDS.

For 2020, the Yankees finally had starting pitching depth. Cashman and the Yankees created a rotation of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ with Jordan Montgomery as insurance. But that was in February and before Severino needed Tommy John surgery and before Paxton underwent back surgery. The Yankees’ inability to properly diagnose Severino’s elbow injury from the previous October and Paxton’s back injury from the previous September had altered their 2020 plans. The Yankees had four months from the time the 2020 season was shut down until it finally started to add to their rotation, and they didn’t. When Tommy Kahnle went down in the first weekend of the shortened season, the Yankees decided not to add to their bullpen. The trade deadline came and went and the Yankees willingly decided to take their chances with a makeshift rotation, the kind of makeshift rotation they always seem have to by the time October rolls around, and three trustworthy bullpen arms.

Right now, the Yankees’ rotation is Cole, Corey Kluber and his eight starts over the last two seasons, Montgomery who is 11 starts removed from Tommy John surgery, and two rookies. The other rotation option is noted scumbag Domingo German, who it’s now impossible to root for, the same way it’s impossible to feel anything other than awful to need to also root for noted scumbag Aroldis Chapman to close out games for the Yankees. Unfortunately for Hal Steinbrenner, I haven’t forgotten that either is a scumbag, the way he hoped Yankees fans would when he allowed the Yankees to trade for Chapman and then gave him a five-year deal and said, “Look, he admitted he messed up. He paid the penalty. Sooner or later, we forget, right?” I haven’t forgotten, and I certainly didn’t forget when for the second straight season the highest-paid reliever of all time gave up a home run to end the Yankees’ season.

The Yankees are going to try to win in 2021 with the same lineup that wasn’t good enough in 2020 or 2019. They are going to try to win it all with a rotation that desperately needs Luis Severino to return completely healthy midseason and have no adjustment period after having only made five starts in what will be nearly two years. They are going to try to win it all with a bullpen that is now down to three trustworthy relievers in Chad Green, Zack Britton and Chapman with the departures of Kahnle and Dellin Betances over the last two years and the disappearance of an effective Adam Ottavino.

It’s a wild, ill-advised and irresponsible plan for a team in a supposed championship window, but it’s the Yankees’ plan. The Yankees are going to go through the same exercise and expect different results.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Rangers

Jan 15, 2021

Rangers Thoughts: Season-Opening Performance Can’t Happen Again

The Rangers couldn’t have opened the season in a worse way unless they announced a multi-year contract for Tanner Glass between taking one of their eight of penalties and allowing one of Anders Lee’s two goals.

The Rangers couldn’t have opened the season in a worse way unless the team announced a multi-year contract for Tanner Glass sometime between taking one of their eight of penalties and allowing one of Anders Lee’s two goals. The Rangers lost to the Islanders 4-0 in their first regular-season game in 10 months and a day, looking like the team that opened last season and not the team that won 16 of 22 games at this time a year ago.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Rangers.

1. Yes, it was one game and the smallest of sample sizes, but that’s all we have right now: one game. After waiting for Rangers hockey from mid-March until early August and getting only three games of it, and then waiting against from early August until mid-January, and then to be treated to that type of effort, it was frustrating. I understand the Rangers are a young team and would have greatly benefited from a full training camp and preseason games, but there’s no excuse for Thursday night’s performance in which they were dominated in every facet of the game by their rival.

2. The Rangers trailed after only two minutes and 33 seconds following a Brock Nelson power-play goal that came as a result of a lazy, unnecessary Jack Johnson penalty. Johnson has been the ire of nearly all Rangers fans since the team inexplicably signed him and he had the worst game imaginable. After finally shedding Marc Staal’s ill-advised contact and being done with the two-headed monster of the Staal and Dan Girardi contracts, the Rangers went and signed another defenseman they had no reason to sign in Johnson. Johnson’s deal is only for this season, but every night he’s in the lineup is a chance someone with an actual future with the Rangers doesn’t have of gaining valuable playing time and experience. After Johnson’s painful Rangers debut, I don’t think we’ll be seeing him in the lineup on Saturday against the Islanders.

3. The Islanders took the lead after the Nelson goal and essentially ended the game one minute and 19 seconds later on a Lee goal. The chance of overcoming a two-goal deficit against a non-Islanders team isn’t awful, against the defensive-minded Islanders under Barry Trotz there’s a better chance of Ryan Strome scoring a goal without Artemi Panarin’s help. I should have put Lee on the 2020-21 NHL All-Animosity Team, but I already had captain Matthew Barzal and Andy Greene (a holdover from last year’s team). Three Islanders on a six-person team felt like way too much, though I’m now upset with myself for not including him. Lee added a second goal (the Islanders’ fourth) in the second period to rub it in my face some more.

4. If Rangers fans were still thinking of a comeback down 2-0, Matthew Barzal ended that idea. Barzal is so good. So, so good. His goal at 13:31 of the first period to give the Islanders a 3-0 lead was … well, silly. That’s the best way I can describe it. His inside-out move against Tony DeAngelo was a thing of beauty, only to be one-upped by his quick release and snipe over the shoulder of Igor Shesterkin. It’s the kind of goal only a handful (OK maybe two handfuls of players in the league can pull off), and Barzal did it so effortlessly it appeared easy. All Rangers fans should be thankful Panarin turned down more money from the Islanders to be a Ranger, or the Rangers would be dealing with Barzal and Panarin for a long, long time. Dealing with Barzal alone is enough.

5. Not only was DeAngelo undressed by Barzal for the Islanders’ third goal, proving to once again be a dangerous liability defensively, but his second-period hissy fit after getting called for a penalty led to a four-minute power play for the Islanders. I was ready for the Rangers to move on from DeAngelo, and wish they had, and the season opener served as a reminder.

6. The Rangers did to two things well in the game: fail to create scoring chances and take penalties. If the objective of the game were to produce as few high-quality scoring chances as possible and play shorthanded for the most possible time, the Rangers would be 1-0 this season. It was a miserable game and I really have no idea why I sat through the entirety of it. I guess I just missed hockey so badly I was willing to sit through a rout at the hands of the Islanders. Pretty sad, really.

7. I’m not sure you can say anyone on the Rangers played well. Adam Fox looked the best, and I don’t care that he gave up some opportunities to shoot for an extra pass, that’s who he is. Even Fox didn’t look like his total self. He was the best Rangers player only because everyone else was so ineffective.

8. It was a sad sight to see Alexis Lafrenière serving a penalty for too many men on the ice. That’s not a position any No. 1 overall pick should ever be in: serving a bench minor. Maybe fans of other teams would disagree, but no team takes penalties for too many men on the ice like the Rangers. It seems to happen every few games for them when it should rarely, if ever, happen. The sloppiest display from a team is getting called for too many men, so it was perfect that the Rangers got called for it in that game.

9. It might have been only one loss, but in a 56-game season, it’s the equivalent of a 1.5 losses. Losses can’t be stacked in this season. Three- and four-game losing streaks can’t happen. If they do, you can kiss the playoffs goodbye. The Rangers need to average about 1.20 points per game this season and have two of the Islanders, Capitals, Flyers, Penguins and Bruins miss the playoffs (and that’s assuming the Sabres and Devils will miss the playoffs). After one game, they have zero points, and if they are to win on Saturday, they will have two, which is under the 2.40 they will have needed through two games. The margin of error is going to be so thin for the four postseason berths in the East. Overall performances like the Rangers’ on Thursday can only happen a few times over the course of the regular season, and they already used one up in one game.

10. In other words, the Rangers have to figure out and figure it out fast. They will play essentially every other night for the next nearly four months, and there are no nights off as part of the deepest division of the four realigned divisions in the league. By the time I write next Friday’s Rangers thoughts, they will have played three total games and be looking at a two-game weekend series against the Penguins. Every game this season is a big game, and in their only game this season, they were as bad as they could have possibly been.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New Rangers episodes after every game throughout the season.

Blogs • Podcasts • Yankees Podcast

Jan 14, 2021

Yankees Podcast: Is Goal Still to Win World Series?

I thought the goal of each Yankees season was to win the World Series. I’m not so sure anymore.

I thought the goal of each Yankees season was to win the World Series. I’m not so sure anymore. The Yankees haven’t made a move this offseason to improve their roster and there’s a month left until spring training.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Jan 14, 2021

Yankees Thoughts: 2021 Roster Will Improve, Right?

I’m still waiting for the Yankees to do something to improve their actual roster, not their Triple-A roster.

I’m still waiting for the Yankees to do something. Anything. Well, not anything. They have already done that by trading for Greg Allen and signing Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Lyons and Socrates Brito. I want them to do something that will improve their actual roster, not their Triple-A roster. Spring training is in four weeks, and the Yankees don’t just have holes on their roster, they have glaring holes, big enough to build an underground parking garage.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Tomorrow will be 14 weeks since the Yankees’ season ended in Game 5 of the ALDS. Since then, the Yankees have done nothing. Nothing. N-O-T-H-I-N-G. I know I keep writing that and talking about it on the podcast, but I feel like it needs to be reiterated as much and as often as possible because it’s embarrassing. I’m sure Yankees ownership isn’t embarrassed, but they should be. As a Yankees fan, I’m embarrassed. The Yankees’ championship window has closed more than expected over the last two years because of injuries and underachieving, and the team isn’t doing anything to avoid having it close even more in 2021.

2. The Yankees’ nickel-and-diming their own free agents has continued this winter their handling of DJ LeMahieu. It’s nothing new for the Yankees and how they have operated for most of the Brian Cashman era. Pay other team’s players, but not your own. It’s the same way of business that was used in signing names like A.J. Burnett (five years and $82.5 million), Jacoby Ellsbury (seven years and $153 million), Brian McCann (five years and $85 million) and Carlos Beltran (three years and $45 million). None of those four finished their contracts with the Yankees, and in terms of Burnett, Ellsbury and McCann, they paid them to play for other teams because of how badly they wanted to get rid of them. None of them were coming off the types of back-to-back seasons LeMahieu just provided atop the Yankees’ lineup, and none of them was as needed as LeMahieu is with this team.

3. Let’s say the Yankees don’t re-sign LeMahieu. If that happens, if not for needing to take care of a now-four-month-old, I would draw the curtains and stay in bed for the entirety of the baseball season. But let’s say it does happen. This would be the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup:

Aaron Hicks, CF
Aaron Judge, RF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Luke Voit, 1B
Gleyber Torres, SS/2B
Gary Sanchez, C
Clint Frazier, LF
Gio Urshela, 3B
Tyler Wade/Thairo Estrada, 2B/SS

This is dangerously close to happening.

4. The Yankees don’t just need to re-sign LeMahieu. They also need starting pitcher. And they don’t need starting pitching in terms of It would be nice to have another starter, they need starting pitching in terms of The Yankees might not be a playoff team without at least one more starter. This is the Yankees’ current “rotation”:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jordan Montgomery
3. Deivi Garcia
4. Clarke Schmidt

5. That’s not a rotation, it’s just the names of four starting pitchers. Three of which weren’t in the planned 2020 Opening Day rotation. Montgomery wasn’t trusted to start a postseason game until the Yankees were forced into starting him, Garcia wasn’t trusted to be given an actual start in a postseason game, and Schmidt, well, the Yankees thought they were better off letting Michael King and Jonathan Loaisiga open games in a 60-game season rather than let their top pitching prospect start and didn’t let him start a game until the final game of the 2020 regular season. As for the fifth starter, take your pick between a scumbag, King, Loaisiga, or some irresponsible combination of Jhoulys Chacin and Nestor Cortes.

6. The bullpen isn’t looking too great either. The Yankees finally decided Jonathan Holder had ruined enough games for them and let him go. Loaisiga keeps getting used in high-leverage spots when he can’t get out of them. Nick Nelson flopped in his first cup of coffee in the majors. Luis Cessa … well, he’s Luis Cessa. Tommy Kahnle is both injured and a Dodger. Adam Ottavino is an untrustworthy right-hander who the Yankees only allow to face right-handers making $9 million. That leaves Chad Green, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. It would have been nice to add Liam Hendriks, but the Yankees passed, letting the White Sox sign him.

7. I don’t know what the Yankees’ strength is as of now. I guess by default it’s a LeMahieu-less lineup since that four-man “rotation” is set up to destroy the bullpen on days when Cole doesn’t start, though there’s not much of a bullpen to destroy. With that lineup, which is currently the team’s “strength,” expect 18-20 strikeout games to become the norm.

8. I do think the Yankees will re-sign LeMahieu because they have to. They don’t have a choice. They don’t have another option. What would their backup plan be? A middle infield of Torres and Wade/Estrada? Bring back Didi Gregorius and move Torres to second base? Sign Michael Brantley two years after they should have and have yet another outfielder/designed hitter on the roster? All of those options suck. You know what doesn’t suck? Re-signing the defending batting champion, the team’s leadoff hitter, the most versatile defender on the team and the one Yankee you actually want to see in the batter’s box when needing a big hit.

9. As for starting pitching, I think we should expect Masahiro Tanaka re-signing with the Yankees. In last week’s thoughts, I listed the available starting pitchers not named Tanaka and not having the baggage of Trevor Bauer. It’s an ugly list unless you’re trying to build the 2015 All-Star team. The same way the Yankees don’t have a choice other than to re-sign LeMahieu, they don’t have choice when it comes to Tanaka, or at least it doesn’t seem like they have a choice. Both will only cost money, which is the Yankees’ greatest resource, but both were previously Yankees, and again: the Yankees don’t like to pay their own players.

10. The other option would be to trade for a controllable starting pitcher, which is something Cashman loves to do, even if he’s awful at picking which controllable starter to obtain. The Yankees failed Sonny Gray and he failed them in his short time in pinstripes, only to find his Oakland self in Cincinnati, and the Yankees traded for the inconsistent and oft-injured James Paxton, and as a Yankee, he was … wait for it … inconsistent and oft-injured. The Yankees have to do something to improve their starting pitching, and they only have one month to do it before spring training.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.