Blogs – Page 72 – Keefe To The City

Mar 31, 2021

2021 MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2021 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

It’s baseball eve. Tomorrow there will be real, meaningful baseball and the start of a full 162-game season.

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2021 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

OVERS

NEW YORK YANKEES, 95.5
On paper, the Yankees are the best team in the American League. Unfortunately, “on paper” doesn’t win you the pennant or the World Series. (If it did, the last 11 baseball seasons wouldn’t have ended in disappointment.) “On paper” also doesn’t account for injuries, which with these Yankees will be sure to decide their 2021 fate. Their rotation mostly hasn’t pitched over the last two years and their lineup has been injured more than any other team in baseball over the same time. There isn’t a single Yankees everyday player who hasn’t had at least one injured list stint between 2019 and 2020.

Thankfully, the majority of the league isn’t trying to win or be competitive, and the Yankees only have a handful of teams to worry about preventing them from being the best team in the AL. I actually think 95.5 is low for this team when you consider 38 of their games will be against the Red Sox and Orioles, and another 33 games against the Tigers, Royals, Indians, Mariners and Rangers. That’s 44 percent of their schedule against bad to really bad to really, really bad teams. I think this number should have been around 98.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX, 90.5
This number is very low. The White Sox are the second-best team “on paper” in the after the Yankees, and it can certainly be argued that they are better than the Yankees. I believe the White Sox are the Yankees’ only true competition to represent the AL in the World Series. They will also play an astounding 57 games against the Royals, Tigers and Indians. If the White Sox were to play only .600 baseball in those 57 games, they would go 34-23. That means they would only have to go 57-48 against the rest of the league to get to 91 wins and beat this number. The math makes way too much sense to take the over.

SAN DIEGO PADRES, 94.5
Another number that seems low. The Padres’ rotation includes Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet. They could have the worst lineup in baseball and they would be an over-.500 team just because of their pitching, the way the Rays have been all these years. But they don’t have the worst lineup in baseball, they have a very strong lineup. The Dodgers and Padres could both win 100 games like the Yankees and Red Sox and one of the two will end up playing a one-game playoff for their season.

HOUSTON ASTROS, 87.5
Everyone is a little too down and a little too quiet on the Astros, which worries me that the Yankees will see them again in the ALCS and lose to them again in the ALCS. In 2019, the Astros were coming off a 103-win 2018 season and their win total was set at 96.5. I took the over, and they won 107 games. Are the Astros now 19.5 games worse than they were two years ago? Sure, they no longer have Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander is out for the season and George Springer is on the Blue Jays, but the Astros are still really good. They might not be what they were from 2017-19, but even in last year’s shortened season without Cole or Verlander, they were one win away from returning to the World Series for the third time in four years. I would love for nothing more than the Astros to come in well under this number. I just don’t think they will.

CHICAGO CUBS, 78.5
The Cubs aren’t a below-.500 team. Even if they spent the offseason operating as if they’re a small-market team, they still have a solid offense, which will be able to mask just how bad their pitching is. For as far as the Cubs have fallen over the last few years, the NL Central sucks, and while the Cubs won’t be a postseason team, they can certainly finish at least 79-83 to win this over.

UNDERS

BOSTON RED SOX, 80.5
The Red Sox sucked in 2019, they sucked in 2020 and they are going to suck in 2021. I never want the Red Sox to be good, but it would be nice if they were OK. Not anything great, but good enough that their games against the Yankees meant something. I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon. For the Red Sox to go over, they’re going to have to be a .500 team. They aren’t a .500 team. Not with a rotation held together by scotch tape and string, and not with a lineup that has moved on from their entire starting outfield over the last calendar year.

SEATTLE MARINERS, 72.5
This is a sad pick because the Mariners have the longest postseason drought in baseball (2001). They’re just not any good. Even in 2019 when they got off to a 13-2 start, they still finished the season 68-94. (That’s a 55-92 run after the first 15 games.) The Mariners have both Justus Sheffield and James Paxton on their roster now after they traded the uninspiring Paxton to the Yankees for Sheffield before 2019, so it would be fitting if they became a dominant 1-2 punch at the front end of the Mariners’ rotation. Even if that did happen and caused me more pain than I have already endured after being vehemently against that trade, the team still isn’t winning 73-plus games.

TEXAS RANGERS, 67.5
The Rangers might be the worst team in baseball. If they’re not, I’m going to lose a lot of money because I will likely be betting against them on most nights for the next six months. This is a 100-loss team, and 100 losses means less than 68 wins.

COLORADO ROCKIES, 63.5
How is Bud Black still managing the Rockies? As someone who frequently bets Coors Field unders, Black is the absolute worst bullpen manager in the league. He makes me feel fortunate to root for a team that has Aaron Boone as its manager. Black does things Boone wouldn’t dream of doing, and over the last three years I watched Jonathan Holder pitch in high-leverage situations and in crucial games.

The Rockies have the second-lowest win total number of all 30 teams, and rightfully so. They have two superpowers in their division and 38 games against the Dodgers and Padres means a lot of losses. In 2020, there were only two teams that played to a 100-loss pace in a 162-game season: Texas and Pittsburgh. In 2019, four teams lost at least 100 games, and in 2018, three teams lost at least 100 games. The Rockies can avoid a 100-loss season and still win this under with only 99 losses. I think 99 losses would be a good year for this roster.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, 59.5
Yes, I’m taking the under on an expected 102-103-loss team. That’s how bad the Pirates are. I’m not even worried about the Pirates being able to hand me a loss if they go 60-102 this season. This roster is right up there with one of the all-time worst, and I would take this under even if it were set at 50.5

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Thoughts

Mar 29, 2021

Yankees Thoughts: Season-Opening Rotation Makes No Sense

The Yankees’ rotation is set for the first six games of the season. It’s poorly set, but it’s set.

There will be Yankees baseball this week. It might be on Friday instead of Thursday because of the weather, but there will be Yankees baseball this week.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The rotation is set. It’s poorly set, but it’s set. It will be Gerrit Cole, followed by Corey Kluber and Domingo German. Not only did the Yankees keep scumbag German through his actions, his suspension and the public backlash and criticism, but he’s now the No. 3 starter to open the season rather than the expected No. 5 starter! Yankees baseball!

The Yankees claim they want to bring Jameson Taillon along slowly, which makes no sense, considering he has barely pitched in two years and will be pitching on April 7 rather than April 4. A whole three-day difference! The Yankees are so ridiculous, it’s sickening. They truly believe they can prevent injuries, yet they set the all-time single-season record for players placed on the injured list in 2019 and followed that up with an injury-filled 2020 and have followed that up by losing Zack Britton, Justin Wilson and Luke Voit for the start of 2021.

2. The Yankees’ six-game rotation to open the season is:

Thursday, Apr. 1 vs. Toronto: Gerrit Cole
Saturday, Apr. 3 vs. Toronto : Corey Kluber
Sunday, Apr. 4 vs. Toronto: Domingo German
Monday, Apr. 5 vs. Baltimore: Jordan Montgomery
Tuesday, Apr. 6 vs. Baltimore: Gerrit Cole
Wednesday, Apr. 7 vs. Baltimore: Jameson Taillon

Every game against the Blue Jays and Rays is a big deal. They are the Yankees’ divisional competition. Games against them will be the difference between playing in a one-game playoff or not. Whether it’s April 4 or September 4, or Game 3 or Game 130 they should be treated the same. Unfortunately, that viewpoint isn’t shared by the team I root for.

3. “With Jamo, we feel like he’s in such a good spot physically,” Aaron Boone said. “We just want to be mindful of building these guys up properly.”

Boone rarely makes sense, and that answers as to why Taillon is pitching in the sixth game of the season makes no sense at all.

“I’m totally on board with it,” Taillon said. “We’ve discussed not putting a hard innings limit on me.”

Of course Taillon says he’s on board with it. What else is he going to say? “I completely disagree with the idiotic strategy my new team is implementing.” That’s what he should have said, but I don’t expect Taillon to go full J.A. Happ on us before he has even pitched a real game for his new team.

4. If Taillon doesn’t think there’s a hard innings limit on him, he must not be the brightest bulb. The Yankees have the hardest of innings limits on him, whether or not they have told him or will ever tell him. I mean they’re holding him back three days because they think that will make a difference in protecting a two-time Tommy John recipient. The only thing that can protect Taillon’s right elbow is to never throw a baseball. Like any pitcher, Taillon can get hurt any time he throws a baseball overhand. The strategy should be to get as much out of him as you can before he potentially breaks down again. Not try to pitch him the least amount possible.

5. Deivi Garcia lost the competition to be the fifth starter, though it was only a competition in name since he was never going to win it, no matter how well he pitched in spring training.

“We continue to be really excited about Deivi and the strides that he’s continued to make in his craft,” Boone said. “The message to him that I tried to convey was, ‘Stay ready, we’re going to need you. You’re going to be a big part of this. Make sure you’re handling your business down there as far as putting yourself in line to be the guy we go to.”

Boone is so excited about Garcia that he only wanted him to pitch the first inning of Game 2 of the 2020 ALDS before going to Happ to ruin the season. What Boone should have said was:

“The message to him that I tried to convey was, ‘Listen, it’s nothing you did, we kept German despite being a scumbag, so we have to have him on the major league roster or it will look even worse that we kept someone who did what German did.”

6. After losing Britton and Wilson, spring training wouldn’t have been complete without the Yankees losing an expected everyday starter before Opening Day. Voit will begin the season on the injured list after tearing the meniscus in his left knee and needing surgery. As of Saturday, Voit was expected to perform no baseball activities for three weeks and then rejoin the Yankees in May. That seems like a very generous timeline given the Yankees’ handling of injuries since the start of 2019.

Voit has been a sneaky injured player as a Yankee. All the attention (and rightfully so) goes to the injuries suffered by Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, but Voit has also had his issues. In 2019, he got hurt unnecessarily going for two in London against the Red Sox and was hitting .280/.393/.509 at the time. He missed two weeks, came back for two-and-a-half weeks and then missed a month. For the last month of 2019, he hit .200/.319/.338 and was left off the postseason roster. Now he’s going to miss at least one month of this season and most likely closer to two (or even more) months.

7. The Voit injury opened the door for Jay Bruce to make the team and play first base every day. Bruce will now have at least a month of real games to prove he isn’t finished as a major leaguer. He will give the Yankees some lineup balance as a left-handed hitter and maybe the magic of putting on the pinstripes will do for Bruce what it has done for so many other former star players trying to save their career. I want Bruce and Dietrich on the team over Mike Tauchman and Tyler Wade, but apparently that wasn’t going to happen if Voit didn’t get hurt. There’s still a chance Wade won’t make the Opening Day roster though I think that chance is small. Like as small as Boone not batting Hicks third in the lineup.

8. With Voit out and Bruce in, this is the lineup I would use:

DJ LeMahieu, 2B
Aaron Judge, RF
Gleyber Torres, SS
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Clint Frazier, LF
Aaron Hicks, CF
Gary Sanchez, C
Jay Bruce, 1B
Gio Urshela, 3B

This is the lineup Boone will use:

DJ LeMahieu, 2B
Aaron Judge, RF
Aaron Hicks, CF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Jay Bruce, 1B
Gleyber Torres, SS
Clint Frazier, LF
Gary Sanchez, C
Gio Urshela, 3B

9. Unfortunately, Hicks is going to bat third. Boone already said that weeks ago. The Yankees think Hicks is Bernie Williams, so he’s going to continue to be treated like he’s Number 51, and not a guy with a .734 career OPS. And it would be very Boone to bat Bruce ahead of Torres, Frazier and Sanchez. For Bruce to go from not making the team before Voit’s injury to batting ahead of those three is exactly the kind of decision Boone makes. We’re talking about the same manager who would use Miguel Andujar to pinch hit in the ninth inning of a game with the game on the line in 2020 and then send him down after the game, and the same manager who used Mike Ford as a pinch hitter in a postseason elimination game instead of Frazier or Sanchez. The same Ford who wasn’t good enough to be on the major league roster in September.

10. This is it. The last Yankees Thoughts of spring training. The next Yankees Thoughts will be a week from today after the Yankees have played their first three games and first series of 2021. The weather doesn’t look promising for Thursday, but if there’s Yankees baseball on Thursday, it will be 174 days since their 2020 season-ending loss to the Rays in Game 5 of the ALDS. I’m ready for what should be a seventh-month grind to begin. Yankees Thoughts will be posted after each of the Yankees’ 52 regular-season series in 2021 and after each postseason game.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Thoughts

Mar 17, 2021

Yankees Thoughts: Opening Day Roster Competitions Over?

There’s only two weeks left until Opening Day. It seems like the Yankees’ remaining questions have been figured out, or at least they should be figured out by now.

Two weeks. That’s it. Two weeks until Opening Day.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. We are past the point of spring training baseball being exciting because it’s baseball. It’s time for the regular season to start. Two more weeks of games for the Yankees to potentially suffer more injuries isn’t ideal. I would be astonished if the Yankees went the rest of March without an injury. That’s just what I have come to expect for the third straight season marred by injuries.

2. There were three “competitions” coming into spring training. They were the fifth spot in the rotation, the last bench spot and the last bullpen spot. The Yankees have wanted Domingo German to win the fifth spot in the rotation, they have wanted Mike Tauchman to be the last man on the bench and they have wanted to give the last bullpen spot to either Michael King or Nick Nelson. With two weeks to go, there’s now some good clarity on the three roster battles.

3. The Yankees have gotten what they wanted entering spring training and that’s scumbag German pitching well, so they have a built-in excuse for sending Deivi Garcia down to begin the season. The Yankees were always going to put German in the rotation to start the season. They didn’t keep him around after his actions and they didn’t sit through his suspension and deal with the public criticism and backlash to not pitch him at the major league level. He has pitched very well in spring training, but I don’t know how anyone could be rooting for him to succeed. I want him to fail and fail miserably. I want him to give up six earned runs in the first inning of his starts and have the offense overcome it, so the team doesn’t lose. I don’t how anyone could think differently.

4. There might not only be one bench spot now. The Yankees played Gio Urshela at shortstop this week, and that means maybe they are thinking of not carrying Tyler Wade on the Opening Day roster. I’m all for this. Once upon a time I was a big Wade believer (2017-18) because the Yankees made him out to be their version of Ben Zobrist. The only difference being that Zobrist actually hit major league pitching. A great glove can only go so far, and when you have a career .575 OPS, that glove better be the best glove in the history of gloves. There has always been the idea Wade would hit with consistent playing time, but in his limited playing time, he hasn’t done nearly enough (since he hasn’t really done anything) to earn extended playing time. He’s been as close to an automatic out in the lineup as one can be in the majors and continue to be in the majors. He’s basically been the Yankees’ version of not having enough players for a co-ed softball game in Central Park in which the last spot in the order is then an automatic out.

5. The Yankees’ willingness to play Urshela at short is very bad news for Wade. The one thing Wade had going for him was that he was the team’s only option to play shortstop in the event of a Gleyber Torres day off or Torres injury (knocking on wood). If Urshela can play short than Wade has no business being on the team. No business at all. Give that roster spot to someone who can actually do something other than roll over a ground ball to the right side.

6. All along it’s been sort of a given that Wade would be on the bench with Kyle Higashioka and Brett Gardner. If the Yankees are seriously considering not carrying Wade, that means there are two bench spots available. To me, Mike Tauchman shouldn’t be one of those spots. He’s not good enough (he’s not good at all, outside of a six-week run in his entire career), and he’s a left-handed hitter who plays good defense. That sounds like Gardner (minus the ability to get the occasional big hit). Why have two Gardners on the team? It wouldn’t make sense to. Miguel Andujar is injured, so he’s out. Thairo Estrada could be a possibility, but he hasn’t done anything this spring to stand out. That leaves Derek Dietrich and Jay Bruce, and I think the Yankees are thinking about keeping them both.

7. Dietrich can play the outfield and the infield, while Bruce can play the outfield and first base. LeMahieu can play first, second and third. Torres can play short and second. Urshela can play third, second and short. Dietrich can play first, second, third and the corner outfields. Bruce can play the corner outfields and first. The Yankees are more than covered in the event of an emergency or injury. Dietrich and Bruce give the team legitimate major league bats when regulars get days off, and Aaron Boone will probably start giving days off in the third game of the season. (That wasn’t a joke. The third game will be the team’s first back-to-back and the second game of five game in five days.) No one wants to see Wade playing whenever Torres or LeMahieu need days off.

8. The Zack Britton injury opened an additional bullpen spot. The Yankees are going to have 13 position players and 13 pitchers. Five spots go to the rotation, leaving eight relievers. Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson are obvious, leaving four spots. Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa will get two of those spots, leaving two more. The final two spots come down to Michael King, Nick Nelson, Albert Abreu and Lucas Luetge. Whether or not Abreu has an option remaining will determine his roster fate. If he does, he goes to the alternate site for Opening Day. If he doesn’t, I think he makes the team. The Yankees paid Brian McCann $5.5 million to play for the Astros and beat them in Game 6 of the 2017 ALCS, and received Abreu in return. It would be nice if Abreu amounted to something.

9. I don’t want King on the Opening Day. He was awful last season in every role he appeared in and he should have to earn his way up in 2021. Nelson was also bad in 2020, outside of his first career appearance, but I liked him and his stuff much more than King. I want Luetge on the team. A 33-year-old, left-handed journeyman who last appeared in the majors in 2015 (he pitched in one game that season for Oakland) and who has struck out 13 in 6 1/3 scoreless innings this spring? Give me that guy.

10. This is the 26-man roster I would go into Opening Day with:

Gary Sanchez
Luke Voit
DJ LeMahieu
Gio Urshela
Gleyber Torres
Clint Frazier
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton
Kyle Higashioka
Brett Gardner
Jay Bruce
Derek Dietrich
Gerrit Cole
Corey Kluber
Jameson Taillon
Jordan Montgomery
Deivi Garcia
Aroldis Chapman
Chad Green
Darren O’Day
Justin Wilson
Jonathan Loaisiga
Luis Cessa
Lucas Luetge
Nick Nelson

That’s the roster I would go with. In reality, you can remove Garcia for German, and if Abreu doesn’t have an option remaining, you can probably remove Nelson or Luetge for him. It still seems like the Yankees will take Wade and Tauchman over Dietrich and Bruce, and I won’t believe they aren’t going to until they don’t, but it would be a mistake to pick the two clearly lesser talented players.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Rangers • Rangers Thoughts

Mar 17, 2021

Rangers Thoughts: Frustrating First Half Ends Without David Quinn

David Quinn can’t be happy with his team’s 9-0 win over the Flyers. That’s because he had nothing to do with it, and now everyone everywhere is questioning whether the team is better off without him.

David Quinn is the head coach of the Rangers, and right now, he can’t be happy with his team’s 9-0 win over the Flyers. That’s because he had nothing to do with it, and now everyone everywhere is questioning whether the team is better off without him.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Rangers.

1. I don’t think David Quinn should be the head coach of the Rangers, and if you frequent Keefe To The City, you will know that’s nothing new. I don’t think Quinn is the right guy for the job now, and I certainly don’t think he’s the right guy to lead this team into future when they are supposed to contend as quickly as next season. His lineup decisions, in-game strategies and ice-time decisions are too much to overcome. He has made too many head-scratching choices between last season and this season for me to change my mind about him.

2. I don’t think the 9-0 win over the Flyers on Wednesday was completely a result of Quinn not being on the bench, but I don’t think it was a complete coincidence either. I don’t think it was an accident that Mika Zibanejad scored a hat trick, a natural hat trick at that, after having three goals in the first 27 games of the season in which he has been benched and criticized publicly by Quinn. I don’t think it was by chance the Rangers happened to put together one of the most dominant offensive performances in franchise history in a game in which they didn’t have to worry about the lines being shuffled from minute to minute or have to fear a lack of ice time for a momentary lapse of judgment.

3. There was always going to be sarcastic comments about Quinn if the Rangers won by any score on Wednesday. Shutting out the Flyers and scoring nine goals in the process was the absolute worst-case scenario for any Quinn fans, Quinn himself and the Rangers’ front office, which is definitely still unsure if Quinn should be given a fourth season at the helm when the Rangers are expected to shed the “rebuilding” title from in front of the team name.

4. Six different Rangers scored in the rout of the Flyers. Brendan Lemieux for the second time this season, Artemi Panarin for the seventh, Pavel Buchnevich for the ninth and 10th (exactly two minutes apart), Jacob Trouba for the first, Zibanejad for the fourth, fifth and sixth and Filip Chytil for the fourth. Just a nonchalant five-point night for Zibanejad without the head coach who has benched him and who has publicly called him out. Freakin’ Brett Howden got on the scoresheet in the game. That’s how much of a team effort this one was.

5. If you’re Quinn, you have to be sick over Wednesday’s performance. Sure, his team played well, picked up two points and is that much closer to a postseason berth, but they also put together the best effort of the season and one of the best of all time without their head coach on the bench and without anyone from his coaching staff on the bench. That’s embarrassing at best for Quinn, and at worst, has to make the front office question everything. That’s how different the Rangers looked.

6. Now the Rangers head to Washington D.C. for games on back-to-back days against the division-leading Capitals, who the Rangers are somehow 2-0 against this season and have outscored 8-3 in those two games. The Capitals are tied for the league lead in points, and the Rangers have easily handled them in both games this season. It’s those types of efforts that make the Rangers’ .500 first half even more frustrating and harder to accept. They have shown they can play with and beat the best teams in the league, but they have also shown they are incapable of holding third-period leads, completely overcoming deficits and winning games in which they dominate possession and win in expected goals.

7. Even though the Rangers have picked up five of a possible six points in their last three games against the Bruins and Flyers, I still don’t think they will make the postseason. That pains me to say, but the math isn’t in their favor at the halfway point of the season. A .500 record wasn’t going to cut it for a half-season in a shortened, 56-game season, and that’s what the Rangers provided in the first 28 games, going 12-12-4. The 1.20 points per game threshold I have written about since before the season began wasn’t picked out of thin air. It was a historical measuring stick from seasons past with a little cushion built in. The Rangers averaged 1.00 point per game in the first half of the season and are three wins off pace. Three wins in three games they can’t get back on the schedule. There are four teams averaging at least 1.20 points per game in the East. They are the four teams currently holding the four playoff spots.

8. The Rangers could have easily won three more games. They have lost seven games in which they had a lead, including four in which they held a third-period lead. Against Pittsburgh alone, they have had leads in five of the six games between the two and have lost five of six. The difference between being holding a playoff spot right now and being the three points out of one that they are is their head-to-head series against the Penguins. The Rangers are currently six points out from the Bruins, who have a game in hand on the Rangers. They are nine points in back of the Penguins (those five blown leads loom large) and 14 points behind both the Islanders and Capitals. Let’s focus on the fourth spot, and the Bruins with 34 points because that’s the Rangers’ best path to a postseason berth.

9. The Bruins are averaging 1.26 points per game. If they play to that pace over their remaining 29 games, the will finish with 71 points. The Rangers would need to get 43 points in their remaining 28 games, a 1.54 points-per-game pace to reach 71 points. That’s a 21-6-1 or 20-5-3 or 19-4-5 record. That’s not happening. The Bruins have an odd number of games left (29), so let’s say they played one-game-over-.500 the rest of the way and finished with 64 points. The Rangers would have to play to a 1.29 points-per-game pace to earn 36 points in 28 games. That’s an 18-10-0 or 17-9-2 or 16-8-4 record. It’s much more reasonable, but unless the Bruins’ recent slide is going to continue, it’s not likely. On top of the Rangers playing exceptionally well for the next nearly two months, there’s still the issue of the Flyers sandwiched between them and the 4-seed.

10. It’s going to be hard, very, very hard for the Rangers to overcome their mediocre and mostly disappointing first half to reach the postseason. Not impossible, but unlikely. I’m not ready to give up on them yet, and I’m not ready for the season to completely turn into watching the development of the young core. I’m close, but I’m not there yet. A few more blown third-period leads, and I won’t have to give up on the Rangers. They will have done it for me.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New Rangers episodes after every game throughout the season.

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Thoughts

Mar 11, 2021

Yankees Thoughts: When Will Injuries End?

The biggest news to date in spring training isn’t good news, and that’s the elbow injury to Zack Britton, which requires surgery.

A week ago, I wrote about the Yankees needing to stay healthy for four more weeks until Opening Day. So much for that.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The biggest news to date in spring training isn’t good news, and that’s the elbow injury to Zack Britton, which requires surgery. Britton is the Yankees’ best reliever, and removing him from the bullpen weakens the Yankees’ biggest strength over the entire majors.

2. There was no way Britton reporting elbow soreness to the team was going to result in him getting an MRI and then picking up where he left off a few days later. An MRI on a 33-year-old who has thrown as hard as he has for as long as he has was always going to find something, and for Britton, who knew something was off enough to report it because he didn’t feel right, the MRI wasn’t going to come back clean. Even if the MRI showed nothing (which it was never going to), the Yankees were going to proceed with caution and shut down Britton for some amount of time anyway.

3. Without Britton, Chad Green becomes more important. As do both Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson. Everyone becomes more important, and that includes Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa, and even Nick Nelson and Michael King, and any other reliever Aaron Boone will inexplicably pitch in situations they don’t belong in.

4. The Yankees turned Adam Ottavino into O’Day and Wilson this offseason, but they should have kept Ottavino and signed O’Day and Wilson. The reason they didn’t is because of the imaginary salary cap and Hal Steinbrenner’s fear of paying a luxury tax. So Steinbrenner decided he would rather pay Ottavino to pitch for the Red Sox and potentially beat his team than pay a luxury tax to put together the best possible roster and try to win a championship for the first time in 12 years.

5. The Britton injury isn’t debilitating the way other injuries might be (and no, I’m not going to name them for fear of them happening), but it’s still not good. It could be the difference between being a one-game playoff team or having home-field advantage throughout the postseason. I would rather have Britton pitching in an important spot than any other Yankees reliever, and now for at least a few months he won’t be an option.

6. If Britton misses the first month of the season, that’s six games against Toronto and six games against Tampa Bay he won’t be available for. Immensely important games against the Yankees’ two division threats. Not to mention a pair of games against the Braves. If Britton misses two months, he’ll miss those games in addition to three games against the Astros, another four games against Tampa Bay, three games against the White Sox and another three games against Toronto. If he comes back at the end of June, he’ll miss another three games against Tampa Bay and another three games against Toronto. If he returns after the All-Star break, add in another three games against the Astros.

7. Enough is enough with the injuries. Enough was enough in 2019. In 2020, they lost Luis Severino in the first iteration of spring training and James Paxton had to undergo back surgery before spring training. Had the 2020 season started on time, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks would have missed roughly half the season because of injuries. Then once the season did start, not even a two-month, 60-game season was short enough for the Yankees to avoid injuries as they lost their starting catcher, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, right fielder, designated hitter, No. 2 starter, No. 3 starter and best reliever to the injured list at various points.

8. From the start of the 2019 season through the end of the 2020 season, here are the Yankees that have been placed on the injured list (not including anyone placed on the IL for COVID-19):

Jordan Montgomery (recovering from Tommy John surgery)
Didi Gregorius (recovering from Tommy John surgery)
Aaron Hicks (left lower back strain)
Luis Severino (right shoulder inflammation and Grade 2 lat strain)
Dellin Betances (right shoulder impingement)
Ben Heller (recovering from Tommy John surgery)
Miguel Andujar (right shoulder strain)
Giancarlo Stanton (left biceps strain)
CC Sabathia (rehab from cardiac surgery)
Troy Tulowitzki (left calf strain)
Greg Bird (left plantar fascia tear)
Aaron Judge (left oblique strain)
Clint Frazier (left ankle sprain)
James Paxton (left knee inflammation)
Jake Barrett (right elbow inflammation)
Domingo German (left hip flexor strain)
Kendrys Morales (left calf strain)
Cameron Maybin (left calf strain)
Giancarlo Stanton (right knee sprain)
Luke Voit (abdominal strain)
Gary Sanchez (left groin strain)
Brett Gardner (left knee inflammation)
Luke Voit (sports hernia)
David Hale (lumbar spine strain)
Edwin Encarnacion (right wrist fracture)
Aaron Hicks (right flexor strain)
Jonathan Holder (right shoulder inflammation)
Stephen Tarpley (left elbow impingement
Thairo Estrada (right hamstring strain)
Gio Urshela (left groin injury)
CC Sabathia (right knee inflammation)
Mike Tauchman (left calf strain)
Dellin Betances (partial tear of Achilles tendon)
Luis Severino (Tommy John surgery)
Masahiro Tanaka (concussion)
Tommy Kahnle (right UCL injury)
Kyle Higashioka (right oblique strain)
Giancarlo Stanton (left hamstring strain)
Aaron Judge (right calf strain)
DJ LeMahieu (left thumb sprain)
Zack Britton (left hamstring strain)
James Paxton (left flexor strain)
Gleyber Torres (left hamstring strain)
Aaron Judge (right calf strain)
Gio Urshela (right elbow bone spur)
Ben Heller (right biceps nerve)

9. Are the Baseball Gods done evening things out from the Yankees’ 1996-2000 championship years? Four championships in five seasons and a fifth World Series appearance in 2001 was always going to have to be evened out, but hasn’t it by now? The 2002 ALDS loss to the Angels. Losing the final three games of the 2003 World Series. Blowing a 3-0 series lead in the 2004 ALCS. Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby crashing into each in Game 5 of the 2005 ALDS. The rainout in the 2006 ALDS. Chien-Ming Wang completely losing it in the 2007 ALDS. The 2008 injury bug. Losing four of the last five games of the 2010 ALCS. Stranding 11 baserunners in Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS. The 2012 ALCS sweep to the Tigers. The 2013 roster. The 2014 roster. Having to face Dallas Keuchel in the 2015 wild-card game. The 2016 disaster. Losing both chances to advance to the World Series in 2017. Getting embarrassed in the 2018 ALDS. Setting the all-time, single-season record for most players placed on the injured list in and losing four of the last five in the 2019 ALCS. The continuation of the injuries from the season before and Aaron Boone’s legendary pitching strategy in the 2020 ALDS. As Yankees fans, we get it, Baseball Gods. We get it. We were very fortunate for the run 1996-2000 run, and even the 1995-2012 run and then the 2017-present run, but it’s time to move on.

10. Three weeks from today is Opening Day. Three weeks. I’m excited about how close that is, but also petrified of how far away it is. That means three weeks of spring training games, batting practices, simulated games and bullpen sessions for more injuries to occur. The Yankees have already lost their top pitching prospect and top reliever in the first half of spring training, and there’s another half to go. Can the Yankees please get to Opening Day without anymore injuries? I know it’s a lot to ask, especially these last few seasons, but maybe it’s time the going-on-three-seasons injury bug moved on from the Yankees.

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