Neil Keefe

May 15, 2015

Yankees-Royals Means Battle of Best Bullpens

The Yankees have cooled off for the first time in a month after dropping three straight games to the Rays this week. The schedule doesn’t get any easier as their nine-game road trip heads to

The Yankees have cooled off for the first time in a month after dropping three straight games to the Rays this week. The schedule doesn’t get any easier as their nine-game road trip heads to Kansas City and then to Washington to face two of the league’s top teams.

With the Yankees continuing their road trip to Kansas City to face the defending American League champion Royals, Max Rieper of Royals Review joined me to talk about the Royals’ magical run in October, having a vaunted bullpen like the Yankees and the careers of Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer.

Keefe: The last two years as a Yankees fan were miserable. Two seasons destroyed by injuries and underachievers led to back-to-back postseason-less seasons for the first time since 1992-93. It sounds ridiculous to be upset about two missed playoffs after missing it only once since 1993, but that’s life as a Yankees fan.

Before last October, the Royals hadn’t made the playoffs since winning the World Series in 1985. With 29 years between playoff appearances, I feel bad being disappointed about the 2013 and 2014 Yankees.

What was that magical run in October like for you?

Rieper: To put things in perspective, your 84-win Yankees team was miserable, whereas the 83-win 2003 Royals was the most thrilling season for me as a Royals fan in almost two decades until last year’s magical run.

Last year was just incredible for so many reasons. The run was so unexpected as the team looked sunk in July, with many of us calling for a firesale and possible ouster of Dayton Moore and Ned Yost. Then everything just clicked. We are so used to everything going wrong for the Royals, it seemed like a karmic reversal of fortune when everything just seemed to bounce our way the rest of the season. To be honest, I think most of us were just happy to be in the Wild Card game, but to win it such exciting fashion, then go on the amazing run they went on seemed like icing on the cake. I imagine there will be a day when we look back at Game 7 of the World Series with some regret that they didn’t win it all, but as of right now, the afterglow of the season has overshadowed any negativity.

The great thing surrounding the winning was also how Kansas City got to be in the spotlight again and how there were so many feel-good stories from the Royals fans welcoming a fan from the other side of the world to Lorenzo Cain and Greg Holland having babies during the post-season to just a tremendous amount of civic pride and togetherness. I don’t think I’ll ever see anything like that again.

Keefe: The biggest strength of the 2015 Yankees is their bullpen. With Dellin Betancs and Andrew Miller combing to pitch 36 2/3 scoreless innings to start the season, they have shortened games to seven innings when the Yankees have the lead. I would have liked for the Yankees to have also re-signed David Roberston this offseason to make the best 1-2-3 combination in the league, but so far the plan of only having or needing two of them has worked out.

The Royals’ success last season and early this season can once again be attributed to their incredible bullpen where they try to win with the same exact formula the Yankees have adopted in shortening games. I know how much of a luxury it is to have unhittable arms at the end of games after growing up with Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer and taking him for granted way too much, so it feels like the Yankees have won the lottery again (even if one of their lottery tickets cost $36 million) with their latest late-inning relievers.

How much fun and how reassuring is it to know that if the Royals have a lead after six or seven innings that the game is virtually over?

Rieper: Having such a dominating bullpen makes your manager seem a lot smarter, doesn’t it? It is a nice security blanket to have, and I think it was a huge part of the team having confidence that they could win last year. They knew that as long as they were in the game in the sixth inning, the bullpen would shut things down for the win, or at least give the offense an opportunity to come back.

I’ve been a critic of Dayton Moore over the years, but he has always been good at assembling bullpens, even in the early days when the Royals were pretty awful and he could pluck a guy like Joakim Soria in the Rule 5 draft from San Diego. What makes it even more remarkable is the contrast between the Royals and rival Tigers, a very good team with one glaring weakness — their bullpen.

Keefe: After hearing about Alex Gordon for what seemed like forever and the comparisons to George Brett and how he would become the next face of the Royals, it looked like that might never happen. Following injuries and inconsistent play to begin his career, Gordon finally found consistency at the plate and Gold Glove defense as a left fielder rather than a third baseman.

With the hype and attention got in his early 20s and what he has become as a player now on the other side of 30, are you content or disappointed by his career?

Rieper: I’m overjoyed. You’re talking about a guy that is now eighth in Royals history in Wins Above Replacement, is a two-time All Star, and four-time Gold Glove winner. How he has overcome early struggles and willed himself into becoming the best defensive left fielder in the game is remarkable.

I always felt that some of the criticism early in his career was a bit unwarranted – he was actually decent his first few seasons until injuries derailed him a bit. But I’m not sure I could have anticipated this kind of career arc for him, and he’s perhaps a good example that sometimes young players should not be dismissed so easily when they initially struggle.

Keefe: Like Gordon, Eric Hosmer followed the same sort of path. I still remember his monstrous home run for the first of his career against A.J. Burnett at the Stadium in 2011 and when he followed that one up with another one the next day. But Hosmer’s career best in home runs came as a 21-year-old rookie in 2011 with 19 and since then he has hit 14, 17 and just nine last season. This season, Hosmer already has seven in 35 games and looks to be finally becoming the elite power threat everyone expected him to be. The craziest thing about him is that he is still only 25!

How excited are you for Hosmer to finally come into his own and realize his full potential?

Rieper: Eric Hosmer is the player I think is the key to the Royals remaining competitive this season. The last two seasons he has gotten off to abysmal starts, and the dirty little secret is, he has been a below-average first baseman for his career, certainly not worthy of the hype he has received. But this year he has looked different, taking outside pitches the other way with power — and we’re talking tape-measure shots.

The Royals really haven’t had a true power threat since the days of Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye, and Mike Sweeney, and they were dead last in baseball in home runs last year. If Eric Hosmer can be the kind of middle-of-the-order power threat he’s seemed capable of becoming for years, then the Royals have a chance to return to the World Series.

Keefe: Last October, the Royals shocked everyone by coming back in the wild-card game, sweeping the Angels in the ALDS, sweeping the Orioles in the ALCS and then losing Game 7 of the World Series by one run. it was an impressive and at times improbable run for an 89-win team that everyone had been waiting to break through for years and it finally happened. So what’s next?

The next logical step in a team’s progression would be to get back to the World Series and win it even if the MLB playoffs are the biggest crapshoot of them all where one three-day slump or a couple of bad starts from the rotation can end a great season. I’m guessing before the season started, you felt like the Royals should win the AL Central this year and return to the postseason and make another extended run this fall.

So what were you expectations for this team before the season and have they changed after the 22-13 start?

Rieper: I was actually pretty down on their chances this year. I felt like they were a bit lucky last year and took advantage of a league that was down — Boston and New York weren’t competitive, Detroit was underachieving, Oakland collapsed, Los Angeles had major pitching concerns, and Baltimore had injuries. They also lost James Shields, a major blow to a starting rotation that was already pretty mediocre. The guys they brought in – Alex Rios, Kendrys Morales, and Edinson Volquez — were all free agents with major red flags surrounding them. Regression seemed to be in the cards for the Royals.

But somehow it has all worked out thus far. The starting rotation, as predicted, has been pretty lousy. But the bullpen is still outstanding and deeper than last year, and the defense is off-the-charts amazing this year. They’ve hit pretty well, and while I think many of their hitters will regress after a hot start, its pretty clear to me the offense will be much improved from last year’s pop-gun offense. Hosmer seems to have turned a corner and Mike Moustakas — one of the worst hitters in the league last year — has become a totally different hitter. Its still a team that worries me to due to its lack of depth among hitters, and the starting pitching woes, but the hot start has convinced me they could be in the mix all season and give us another exciting run.

Blogs • Rangers

May 15, 2015

Rangers-Lightning Is Frightening

One week ago, there was one minute and 41 seconds left in the Rangers’ season. Trailing the Capitals 1-0 with 1:41 left in the third period of Game 5, the realization that the Presidents’ Trophy

One week ago, there was one minute and 41 seconds left in the Rangers’ season. Trailing the Capitals 1-0 with 1:41 left in the third period of Game 5, the realization that the Presidents’ Trophy season was going to end in the second round after just 10 postseason games started to set in. And I thought of Mike McDermott narrating in Rounders.

“I’ve often seen these people, these squares, at the table. Short-stacked and long odds against, all their outs gone, one last card in the deck that can help them. I used to wonder how they could let themselves get into such bad shape … and how the hell they thought they could turn it around.”

The Rangers had one out left. They had to find a way to tie the game and either pull a Blackhawks’ Game 6 of the 2012-13 Stanley Cup Final and score twice in the final minute of the game or win it in overtime. And like Mikey McD, I wondered, “How could this Rangers team, the best Rangers team in 21 years, let themselves get into such bad shape?”

Chris Kreider scored at 18:19 of the third period to save the season and at 9:37 of overtime, Ryan McDonagh extended. Two days later, the Rangers solved Braden Holtby with four goals and then hung on for dear life in the final minutes of a 4-3 win. Three days after that, the Rangers overcame an Alex Ovechkin goal and 1-0 deficit to win in overtime, win a Game 7 on May 13 once again and be the first team in the history of the NHL to overcome a 3-1 series deficit in back-to-back seasons.

Before Game 7, I wrote about how every Stanley Cup-winning team must have a “championship moment” on their way to the Cup and if the Rangers are to win the Cup for the first time in 21 years, it’s going to be nearly impossible to top the odds that overcame in the second-round series against Washington.

The Penguins’ offseason is now 21 days old and the Capitals’ is two days old. For the third time in four years, the Rangers are in the conference finals, and the only thing standing in their way of returning to the Stanley Cup Final is the one team I wanted no part of this postseason: the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Rangers went 0-3 against the Lightning this year. They lost 5-1 (Nov. 17), 4-3 (Nov. 26) and 6-3 (Dec. 1) and were outscored 15-7 in those three games, but those games did all come in a span of 14 days at a time when the Rangers were banged up and not the Rangers we see today. The Rangers didn’t become the current form of their team until the second week of December.

The main problem with the Lightning is that I was the Trade Ryan Callahan for Martin St. Louis Club President and then I also served as the Don’t Overpay and Re-sign Brian Boyle, Benoit Pouliot and Anton Stralman Club President. (To my credit, I didn’t know Glen Sather was going to sign Tanner Glass or give a ridiculous extension to Marc Staal after having already given one to Dan Girardi.)

A series against the Lightning is challenging enough without the idea of having to watch Callahan, Boyle and Stralman advance to the Final and play for the Cup at the expense of the Rangers. That would be too much to take. A little like watching Marian Gaborik carry the Kings to the Stanley Cup against the Rangers a little over a year after the Rangers traded him to Columbus because John Tortorella didn’t like him. I’m petrified of this series and what a Rangers series loss will mean.

The only thing keeping me from locking myself in my apartment until this series is over (and if ends poorly staying locked in my apartment for the next year) is that Henrik Lundqvist is a Ranger. It’s been 34 days since the regular season ended and there’s still a season for the Rangers because of Henrik Lundqvist the way there has been a postseason for the Rangers every season but one since the 2004-05 lockout because of Henrik Lundqvist. He has once again been the best player on a team picked by many to reach the Final and finish the job they couldn’t last season and he’s been everything and more this postseason. As long as Lundqvist is in net, I will always like the Rangers’ chances.

I picked the Rangers to beat the Penguins in six and they did it in five. I picked the Rangers to beat the Capitals in six and they did it in seven. Both times I was wrong, but the result worked out in the end. So why change something that works?

Rangers in six.

Blogs • Rangers

May 13, 2015

The Annual Rangers Game 7

Two years ago today, the Rangers won a Game 7 against the Capitals in Washington. One year ago today, the Rangers won a Game 7 against the Penguins in Pittsburgh. Tonight, the Rangers will play

Two years ago today, the Rangers won a Game 7 against the Capitals in Washington. One year ago today, the Rangers won a Game 7 against the Penguins in Pittsburgh. Tonight, the Rangers will play another Game 7, this time at Madison Square Garden. May 13 might as well be “Game 7 Day” on the calendar.

“Rangers in 7” is what I said after they lost Game 4 last Wednesday. It was mainly out of optimistic jest hoping that the season would extend past Friday’s Game 5 the way I had hoped the 2013-14 Rangers could give us one more game each time they played the Penguins after Game 4. Like last postseason when they scored only two goals combined in Games 2, 3 and 4 against the Penguins, these Rangers had scored only one goal combined in losses in Games 3 and 4. They were once again trailing a second round series by two games and after last year’s miraculous run, it seemed irresponsible to think they could erase another 3-1 series deficit.

This entire postseason I have watched the Rangers with a calm demeanor that I have never before experienced when it comes to this team in the playoffs. But after a regular season in which I grew to enter each Rangers game thinking they would win after years of knowing one or even two goals would be too much for them to overcome, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by the way I have viewed the playoffs.

I didn’t get too discouraged after the Game 2 loss to the Penguins and I didn’t get down after the Game 1 loss to the Capitals or the Game 3 loss or even the Game 4 loss. The only time this postseason I sensed impending doom was in the final minutes of the third period of Game 5 as the clock ticked away on a Presidents’ Trophy season with the Capitals leading 1-0. But then with 1:41 left, Chris Kreider saved the season, and in overtime, Ryan McDonagh extended it and now here we are faced with another Game 7 on May 13 with a chance for the Rangers to go to their third conference finals in four years.

Every championship team needs to overcome something crazy to win their championship and in the Stanley Cup Playoffs it happens every year. The 2013-14 Kings overcame a 3-0 deficit and won three Game 7s on the way to the Cup. The 2012-13 Blackhawks had to overcome a 3-1 deficit to the Red Wings before winning the Cup. The 2011-12 Kings were the 8-seed and had to beat the 1-, 2- and 3-seeds to reach the Final before winning the Cup. The 2010-11 Bruins had to overcome a 2-0 series deficit to the Canadiens, overcome a 2-0 series deficit to the Canucks and win three Game 7s to win the Cup.

I thought the 2013-14 Rangers’ comeback against the Penguins might have been their championship moment, but the magic ran out in the Final when they couldn’t hold a two two-goal leads and when they couldn’t win any of their three overtime games. Maybe a Game 7 win on Wednesday night against the Capitals to complete their 3-1 series comeback will be their championship moment this year?

If the season ends on Wednesday night at the Garden where the Rangers have never lost a Game 7 in the team’s history, it will be devastating and a enormous disappointment. After reaching the Final last year and winning the Presidents’ Trophy this season, the next logical stop in the team’s progression is to reach the Final again and this time win the Cup, no matter how incredibly hard that is and how impossible it can seem even for the best regular-season teams in history.

This Rangers season wasn’t meant to end on Friday night at the Garden and it wasn’t meant to end on Sunday night in Washington. This Rangers season was set up for so much more than a second-round exit and after coming back in this series with 101 seconds left before finality set in and a handshake line took place, it can’t possibly end on Wednesday night. Rangers in 7 on May 13 once again.

Podcasts • Rangers

May 13, 2015

Podcast: 610 Barstool Sports New York

For the third May 13 in a row, the Rangers have a chance to win a Game 7 and extend their season and they’re looking to do it in comeback fashion once again.

Two years ago today, the Rangers beat the Capitals in Game 7. One year ago today, the Rangers beat the Penguins in Game 7. Tonight at Madison Square Garden there will be another Game 7 between the Rangers and Capitals and the Rangers have never lost a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden.

610 of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about the Rangers’ come back in the series to force a Game 7, the unusual calm feeling of Rangers fans this postseason, Alex Ovechkin’s guarantee and role in Game 7 and what will happen in Game 7 at the Garden.

Blogs • Rangers • Rangers Playoffs

May 12, 2015

Alex Ovechkin and the Over-the-Top Guarantee

Once upon a time a guarantee meant something. It meant something in the 1993-94 playoffs when Mark Messier told said “We’ll win tonight” in anticipation of Game 6 against the Devils, and it should mean

Once upon a time a guarantee meant something. It meant something in the 1993-94 playoffs when Mark Messier told said “We’ll win tonight” in anticipation of Game 6 against the Devils, and it should mean something that Alex Ovechkin guaranteed a Capitals win over the Rangers in Game 7. But it doesn’t.

“We’re going to play our game and we’re going to come back and we’re going to play Montreal or Tampa.”

That’s what Ovechkin said after the Rangers’ Game 6 win, after the Rangers staved off elimination for the second straight game and after they solved Braden Holtby by scoring four goals, which is something he hadn’t allowed in over a month.

“We almost tie the game and the character of this group, it shows a lot,” Ovechkin said. “We’re going to come back and win the series.”

And there’s the second part of his guarantee.

Ovechkin is the captain of the Capitals and the face of that franchise, so of course he’s going to be optimistic about his team’s chances even if they blew a two-game series lead, blew Game 5 with 1:41 left and lost Game 6 at home. I wouldn’t expect Ovechkin to think anything other than that his team will rebound after back-to-back losses and win Game 7 on the road in Madison Square Garden where the Rangers have never lost a Game 7 in the history of the team. But I said “think” those things, not say them.

In the first part of his guarantee, he says, “We’re going to play our game,” as if the Capitals playing at their best means they will win Game 7. He doesn’t say, “We’re going to play our game and the Rangers are going to play their game and we’re going to come back and we’re going to play Montreal or Tampa,” as he disregards the idea that the Rangers might also play their game, which was eight wins and 12 points better in the 82-game regular season. I guess Ovechkin was trying to say that if the Capitals play their game they won’t lose, but if you look at this series, what exactly is their game?

In Game 1, they won thanks to a last-second play made by possible by a non-boarding call. They lost Game 2. They won Game 3 on a lucky and fortunate bounce off Keith Yandle’s skate. They won Game 4 in an evenly matched game. They blew Game 5 and lost Game 6. From the first six games of this series, it seems like the Capitals’ game is to block shots, lean on Holtby and wait for an Ovechkin goal (that hasn’t happened since Game 2) or score on an incredible bounce. If that’s the “game” Ovechkin is talking about for Game 7, I’m not sure that will be enough to beat Henrik Lundqvist, the Garden and momentum.

“We almost tie the game” is how Ovechkin begins the second part of his guarantee. Since when is “almost” doing something a reason to be Almost coming back after trailing by three goals, but never completing the comeback is an unusual way to support a guarantee. If anything, I would think coming to close to completing a comeback at home and not completing it would be demoralizing knowing that the next game would be a win-or-go-home game on the road, but not to Ovechkin.

Ovechkin had nothing to lose by making this guarantee. If the Capitals win, Washington will consider him their Messier for the time being and if they lose, well, that’s what the Capitals do. They blow leads in the playoffs and lose in the first or second round. The Capitals not making the conference finals would be the same old storyline out of Washington since the last time they reached it in 1997-98.

Ovechkin was already wrong once this series when he told Lundqvist, “All series, baby, all series,” after scoring on him in Game 1. He followed it up with another goal in Game 2, but since then he hasn’t scored. He hasn’t even had an assist. No points in the last four games for the player who promised to continue to provide offense for the Capitals for the entire series. That’s one empty guarantee already this series. Expect another one in Game 7.

Author: Neil Keefe

Yankees-Royals Means Battle of Best Bullpens

Rangers-Lightning Is Frightening

The Annual Rangers Game 7

Podcast: 610 Barstool Sports New York

Alex Ovechkin and the Over-the-Top Guarantee