1. A couple of easy wins, a tough loss and a good comeback win made up the weekend against the Orioles. It was the kind of weekend I expected. Nothing to get overly excited or upset about. The rest of the league provided those emotions.
The Blue Jays lost two of three to the Royals to fall to two games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column (and three overall because of the tiebreaker). The Red Sox lost two of three to the Rays to fall to three back of the Yankees in the loss column (and two overall because of the tiebreaker). The Mariners swept the Astros to all but wrap up the West and the Guardians won another series to pull within one game of the Tigers before their three-game series this week. The AL playoff standings are chaotic and the Yankees are outside observers since they conducted all of their chaos in the summer when they blew an eight-game lead to the Blue Jays.
2. I knew Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish would be an issue for the Yankees offense this weekend and they were, combining for this line: 12 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 14 K. That duo is a problem and I’m glad the Yankees are only scheduled to face one of them this coming week in Bradish.
3. That’s the kind of starting pitching the Yankees are going to see beginning next week and their performance against those two was worrisome. If the Yankees draw the Red Sox, they have to deal with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. If they get the Tigers, there’s Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty (who sucks against every team other than the Yankees). They could get the deep rotation of the Mariners, Blue Jays or Astros. The only team any Yankees fan could feel confident about seeing next week is the Guardians, and that’s becoming a real possibility and the possibility every Yankees fan should root for.
4. The Yankees haven’t won a postseason series against a non-AL Central team since the 2012 ALDS against the Orioles. The Aaron Boone Yankees are 15-4 against the AL Central in postseason games and 7-19 against all other divisions. I’m the biggest Guardians fan in the world right now, rooting for them every night to somehow surpass the Red Sox and end up in the second wild-card spot and play the Yankees. They have no ace, their bullpen isn’t what it was last year and their lineup is one superstar and mediocrity. They are the easiest path for the Yankees to advance to the ALDS.
5. Michael Kay kept saying over the weekend how unfortunate the Yankees’ loss on Friday was because the Blue Jays lost that day and had the Yankees won they would be one-game back in the loss column. You can’t expect to four-game sweep any team, even a team that has nothing to play for like the Orioles. How about you don’t blow an eight-game lead over the Blue Jays? How about you don’t go 5-8 against the Blue Jays or 4-9 against the Red Sox or get swept by the Marlins in August or lose a game in Colorado in May or let Carlos Carrasco start six games? The Yankees aren’t two games back in the loss column and three games back overall from the Blue Jays because they lost to the best statistical starting pitcher in the league on Saturday. They’re where they are because they went 18-29 from June 13 to August 5. They have their annual summer swoon, their inability to win divisional games and their inability to treat all games throughout the season the same as to why they are in the position they are in.
6. Here is the updated table of what needs to happen for the Yankees to win the division:
| If the Blue Jays go … | The Yankees need to go … |
| 3-3 | 6-0 |
| 2-4 | 5-1 |
| 1-5 | 4-2 |
While the Yankees play the White Sox, the Blue Jays will play the Red Sox. If the Yankees can stack wins against the worst team in the AL they will be guaranteed to either make up ground on the Blue Jays or create ground on the Red Sox every night from Tuesday through Thursday. The Yankees’ division odds went from 9.1 percent before the weekend to 14.3 percent after the weekend.
7. If Sunday’s game took place in early June, July or early August, the Yankees lose. There’s no doubt in my mind they lose. They either never score and get shut out or they lose in extra innings. I think it was fitting that the 2025 Yankees’ final regular-season road game was an extra-inning win, considering how bad they have been on the road in extra innings this season and how bad they have been on the road in extra innings since the automatic runner was implemented with the worst record in the majors.
8. My favorite Yankees lineup is when Ben Rice bats fourth or fifth, not second. Aaron Judge should always bat second. (I would bat him first, but we all know that was only a 2022 late-summer desperation tactic and the Yankees won’t revisit it.) Rice should never force Judge down the lineup and should never bat ahead of Cody Bellinger and not guarantee Bellinger a first-inning plate appearance.
This is the best Yankees lineup at the moment against a right-handed starter:
Trent Grisham, CF
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, LF
Ben Rice, 1B
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Jazz Chisholm, 2B
Ryan McMahon, 3B
Jose Caballero, SS
Austin Wells, C
This is the best Yankees lineup at the moment against a left-handed starter:
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, CF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Amed Rosario, LF
Jazz Chisholm, 2B
Jose Caballero, 3B
Anthony Volpe, SS
Ben Rice, C
9. Jose Caballero started the last two games of the Tigers series, the entire Red Sox series, two of three in the Twins series and two of four in the Orioles series. In those 10 starts, he hit .333/.412/.567 with a .978 OPS, five extra-base hits, five stolen bases and four walks. If the competition to see who will be the starting shortstop in the postseason is really a competition then the competition is over. But we all know it’s not really a competition and the slightest bit of success from Volpe over last week and this coming week will be enough for the Yankees to disregard three years of poor performance. And that’s exactly what’s happening. With each Volpe single or longer-than-three-pitch-at-bat, the Yankees are getting what they want which is a reason to start Volpe in the playoffs. I’m prepared for it. I know how these things go and how they have gone in the Boone era, and I’m prepared for Volpe to be playing and striking out and throwing balls away starting next Tuesday.
10. The Yankees are either going to be the first wild card and have home-field advantage for the best-of-3 or they are going to be the No. 1 overall seed in the AL and have home-field advantage in the ALDS and ALCS (if they get that far). Either way the Yankees are home this entire week and will stay home next week as well. If they survive the wild-card series, their next road game won’t be until Saturday, Oct. 4 (12 days from now), and if they win the division, their next road game won’t be until Tuesday, Oct. 7 (15 days from now). The Yankees are set up logistically, health-wise and rotation-wise right now for whichever round they open in. Now it’s just a matter of picking up a few wins this week, staying healthy and getting everyone whatever work they need to prepare for next Tuesday … or Saturday.
Last modified: Sep 22, 2025
