Keefe To The City

Nov 14, 2013

NFL Week 11 Picks

My picks season continues to mirror the New York Football Giants’ season and has become a real version of a Matt Christopher book.

I have said several times throughout this picks season that my picks success (or lack of success) has mirrored the success (or lack of success) of the New York Football Giants and as the Giants’ season goes, my picks season goes. Let’s look at the Giants’ score each week and how I did with my picks in each of those weeks.

Week 1: Cowboys 36, Giants 31 (3-12-1)
Week 2: Broncos 41, Giants 23 (7-8-1)
Week 3: Panthers 38, Giants 0 (7-8-1)
Week 4: Chiefs 31, Giants 7 (7-7-1)
Week 5: Eagles 36, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 6: Bears 27, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 7: Giants 23, Vikings 7 (9-6-0)
Week 8: Giants 15, Eagles 7 (7-6-0)
Week 9: BYE (6-6-1)
Week 10: Giants 24, Raiders 20 (9-5-0)

As you can see, the Giants’ season started off with the “Disaster in Dallas” and I had my worst week of the season at 3-12-1, which put me in a hole that I’m still trying to climb out of (just like the Giants). I continued to produce losing weeks during Weeks 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 just like the Giants and then in Week 7, I turned the season around when the Giants beat the Vikings and started their current winning streak to get back in the NFC East playoff picture.

This coincidence reminded me of a Matt Christopher (yes, THE Matt Christopher) book: Ice Magic. Here is the Amazon summary of Ice Magic:

A strange power is at work in the rink … Pie Pennelli loves to play ice hockey, but he’s got some problems: his hand-me-down skates are too big for him, and one of his teammates is always giving him a hard time. But Pie’s troubles really begin when his next-door neighbors find an antique hockey game. They swear the game is magic and can predict every play Pie’s team will make!

So according to Ice Magic and Pie Pennelli, it doesn’t really matter which teams I pick to cover. All that matters is if the Giants win or lose. And since they’re playing Scott Tolzien’s Packers, you would think this would be another successful week.

Week 11! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Indianapolis -3 over TENNESSEE
Whenever you start to feel confident about a team being a contender, the Football Gods will make you think twice about it. How many teasers did the Colts destroy last week when they were -9.5 at home against the Rams? I know of at least one. After hearing about how the Colts could make a deep playoff run and could possibly be the AFC’s representation in East Rutherford on Feb. 2, they were brought back down to Earth at the hands of Kellen Clemens and the Rams. I don’ feel confident in the Colts, but then again I have to go with my gut thanks to my 8-2 record on Thursday Night Football.

Atlanta -2 over TAMPA BAY
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Falcons fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Once again I’m still bitter over the Falcons blowing a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game last year that cost me a 10-to-1 parlay with the Ravens over the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, so I don’t feel sorry for the Falcons or Matt Ryan or Tony Gonzalez or Falcons fans. I’m happy their season has been a disaster.

New York Jets 0 over BUFFALO
This is a dangerous, dangerous decision and probably a stupid one. I’m not talking about trusting the Jets in a divisional game or one that has been deemed a pick ’em by Vegas. I’m talking about trusting the Jets on the road following their biggest win of the season in a game that now has expectations for them since they control the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Jets don’t usually respond well to being in a favorable position.

The Jets have alternated wins and losses this season and if you’re a believer in patterns then they will lose in Buffalo. Three of their four losses have come on the road and in their last road game in Cincinnati in Week 8 they were embarrassed even more than the Giants were in their Week 3 loss in Carolina. Everything about this game says I should probably pick the Bills, but eff it.

Detroit -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Lions are 6-3 with a one-game lead in the NFC North and right now both Aaron Rodgers Jay Cutler are out. It’s the best possibly scenario for the Lions with seven games left to play for a chance to get back to the playoffs after what happened to their season last year and even host a playoff game. Meanwhile, the Steelers might think there is still hope to their season at just 2.5 games back of the Bengals, but there isn’t.

Washington +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA
For the Giants, it would be better if the Redskins won this game, so that if the Giants win their game, the Giants, Redskins and Eagles would all have six losses and the Cowboys would have five. But if the Eagles win, then they improve to 6-5 and would temporarily take over first place in the division and if the Giants were to beat the Packers this week and the Cowboys next week, they still wouldn’t be in first. Let’s go Redskins!

CHICAGO -3 over Baltimore
The Ravens are 1-4 on the road and have lost at Denver, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Cleveland and going to Soldier Field even if it’s against Josh McCown is a recipe for disaster for this Ravens team.

CINCINNATI -5.5 over Cleveland
A very good home team against a very bad road team. There’s not much else there.

Oakland +7.5 over HOUSTON
Yup, it’s another one of those …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

For the second week in a row the Texans have made this Game of the Week and thanks to their loss in Arizona to extend their losing streak to seven games, they are here again. The Texans have now lost their last three games by a combined seven points and when you factor in their Week 4 overtime loss to Seattle (the game that Matt Schaub gave away), their season has actually been completely decimated by just a few plays.

JACKSONVILLE +7.5 over Arizona
Well, so much for picking against the Jaguars at all costs with any spread. The Jaguars’ win over the Titans last week gets them out of me always picking against them and coming off a road win, this line seems a little high against the Jaguars even if it’s the Jaguars.

MIAMI +2.5 over San Diego
I would think that the Dolphins’ loss to the Buccaneers coupled with their bullying situation is why the Chargers are favored here, but the Chargers don’t play well in the Eastern Time Zone and as always, I hate picking for Philip Rivers.

SEATTLE -12.5 over Minnesota
For some reason I don’t like picking for Christian Ponder to cover in Seattle.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Francisco
Whenever I see a Saints’ home line less than a touchdown I just laugh. Why would Vegas want to make things easy? In case you forgot, here is what I wrote about the Saints in the Week 8 Picks:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 12 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

Since I wrote that the Saints have played two home games and won both, beating Buffalo 35-17 and Dallas 49-17. So add 18 and 32 to that margins of victory list.

The Saints’ two losses this season have come on that road (New England and New York Jets) and it’s going to be tough for them to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and clinch home-field throughout the playoffs with the Seahawks at 9-1 and the Saints going to Seattle in Week 13. But if the Saints were to get the 1-seed, you could pencil them in all the way to MetLife Stadium because the Saints don’t lose in the Superdome. They just don’t.

NEW YORK GIANTS -5.5 over Green Bay
Everything has aligned for the Giants to come back from 0-6, win the NFC East and host a playoff game this season. Everything. The only problem is the Giants aren’t exactly cooperating. Last week they were unable to put away a bad Raiders team at home, winning 24-20, and did everything they could to lose, including fumbling the opening kickoff and another Eli Manning pick-six. This week they get the Packers and third-string quarterback Scott Tolzien, who has attempted 39 passes in the NFL. If the Giants win, they are one game back of Dallas heading into their Week 12 matchup with the Cowboys at MetLife. Just get to Week 12. That’s all I ask.

Kansas City +7.5 over DENVER
The supposed real Game of the Week in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Broncos are undefeated at home and have won by 22, 16, 32, 16 and 24 points at Mile High, but the Chiefs are undefeated everywhere and their defense against a banged-up and not-practicing Peyton Manning is enough for me to think 7.5 is too high for a divisional matchup with so much at stake.

New England +1.5 over CAROLINA
After the Football Gods reminded everyone not to get too high on the Colts in Week 10, it seems like it’s the Panthers’ turn to experience a setback with their five-game winning streak.

Last week: 9-5-0
Season: 66-76-5

Podcasts

Nov 13, 2013

Podcast: Brian Monzo

Brian Monzo of WFAN joins me to talk about why he supposedly didn’t care about the NHL entering this season and where Henrik Lundqvist will play next year.

It took the Rangers nearly a month to get their season on track, but they have done so by winning seven of their last 10 games and climbing out of their early 2-6 hole. I wasn’t sure if Mike’s On: Francesa on the FAN producer Brian Monzo had even watched the first month-plus of the NHL season after he wrote a blog on Opening Night saying how he didn’t care that the NHL was back.

Monzo joined me to talk about the state of the NHL, why he is against the league’s front office and rule changes, whether or not NHL players should play in the Olympics, if the Islanders made the right decision trading Matt Moulson for Thomas Vanek and where Henrik Lundqvist will play next season.

Blogs • Rangers

Nov 12, 2013

The Real Rangers

The Rangers turned their season around over the last 14 days and now look like the team we expected after a series of trades with the Blue Jackets.

The nine-game road trip to start the season is long gone. The Rangers team that started the season 1-4 and was then 2-6 is gone too. The team that was outscored 20-5 during a three-game losing streak from Oct. 8 to Oct. 12 is gone as well. The team that lost consecutive games to the Devils and Flyers and were outscored 6-1 in those two losses … also gone. The Rangers we have seen since their come-from-behind win in Detroit on Oct. 26 are the Rangers we expected to see in 2013-14. They are the Real Rangers.

The Real Rangers are the Rangers we thought we would be getting when they traded for Rick Nash and then when they traded Marian Gaborik for depth. And last Thursday when they played their frequent trade partner in Columbus we were allowed somewhat of a glimpse into what life would be like if the Rangers kept their conference finals losing team of 2011-12 together. And with that glimpse came the chance for former Rangers to air their grievances with their New York departures and what happened with John Tortorella. Here’s what Brandon Dubinsky said about his relationship with Tortorella, who seemed to have a deteriorating relationship with every player on the team:

“I think my relationship with Torts fell apart the last year that I was there (in New York). I just felt like his relationship with some of the other players could be doing the same thing. So I guess that pretty much sums it up. I wasn’t completely surprised that it happened.”

As for Dubinsky’s trade?

“The hardest part for me was that we went from growing up together and taking a team — and I wasn’t there the first year of the lockout, but after that I was there every other year— we went from taking a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in forever to a team that was in the conference finals. And I guess when you look at it — not only my trade and sending Artie and Timmy here, but I guess all of the moves as a whole — I didn’t understand it quite that you would want to bring so many new guys in after you’ve had such a successful season and such a successful playoff run.”

As I have said countless times, the Rangers reaching the conference finals in 2011-12 wasn’t indicative of who they were. Yes, they were the No. 1 seed in the East that year, but they backed their way into the playoffs and if the season were 83 games instead of 82, the Penguins would have been the 1-seed. The Rangers won an inordinate amount of games in 2011-12 through comebacks and late goals and overtime and shootout wins and relied heavily on Henrik Lundqvist, the eventual Vezina winner in an historical season. It’s why they needed seven games to get past the Senators in the quarterfinals and the Capitals in the semifinals and why they needed to overcome 3-2 series deficits in both of those series just to reach the conference finals. I don’t usually agree with Glen Sather, but he knew that the 2011-12 Rangers weren’t good enough to win the Cup in 2012-13 and that they weren’t really as close to winning it all as being two wins away from the Final and six wins away from winning it made them seem. It’s why he wanted Rick Nash that February and why he got him that July.

“Sometimes that’s just the way New York is. They like the flash and the dash and they want a new toy, I guess. And that’s no disrespect to the organization or anybody, of course, because they were so great to me. But that was the hardest part.”

It would have been harder for the Rangers to trade Dubinsky in the Nash deal if he didn’t score just 10 goals and 34 points in 77 games in 2011-12 (he didn’t score his first goal until Nov. 11, which was his 15th game of the season, and he didn’t score his second goal of the season until Dec. 22, which was the 32^nd game of the season). New York doesn’t need a “new toy” they just need one that works. And trading for a Team Canada first-liner, a 40-goal scorer and one of the game’s best offensive players even if it includes Dubinsky, who has as many goals in his career as Nash had when he was 21, is always the right decision.

The Real Rangers beat the Central Rangers on Thursday with Cam Talbot in net after Lundqvist stopped 28 of the 29 shots his potential next team (Pittsburgh) took the night before. Then the Rangers won again on Sunday night against Tim Thomas and the Panthers to improve to 7-2 in their last nine games. It’s only been 14 days since I wrote “The Last-Place Rangers” but since then the Rangers have turned their season around without their best player and are currently hold the 6-seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to the screwed up playoff format created by the geniuses in the NHL front office and realignment. How did they get back to .500 and over it in two weeks? Let’s see.

Brad Richards
Remember the days of the amnesty buyout talks? Those were fun. But a funny thing happened on the way to the Rangers buying out Richards’ contract. That funny thing is that Richards was given a coach who values offense and not having his scorers muck it up on the corners and a system that is built around scoring since the objective of the game is actually to score more goals than your opponent and not play for one goal and then hope your goalie makes that one goal stand.

Richards leads the Rangers in goals (6) and assists (9) and therefore obviously points as well (15). He is every bit of the free agent center I wanted before the 2011-12 season and the one we saw that season (25-41-66) and nothing like the one we saw last season (11-23-34) before his postseason benching and healthy scratching. Richards is getting several high-quality scoring chances each game thanks to AV’s use of him by putting him on a line with the speedy Carl Hagelin, who we’ll get to now.

Carl Hagelin
Who’s that averaging 1.14 points per game? Why it’s Carl Hagelin! You might not recognize or remember him from the Tortorella era because he was playing with a governor on his wheels thanks to Tortorella’s defense-first (or really defense-only) system that didn’t allow Hagelin to use his speed to create scoring chances and highlight reel goals, which seem to come once a night now, that we are only used to seeing being scored against the Rangers by the Penguins and Capitals. It no longer seems to be a question of whether or not Hagelin can be a true top-six forward in the NHL, but rather whether or not he can sustain this level of play. Right now Hagelin looks like a completely different player under AV and that’s because he is.

Chris Kreider
On Oct. 29 in “The Last-Place Rangers” I said:

Kreider is now 22, which doesn’t seem that old, but he has two career regular-season goals in 26 games and 15 of the 18 players drafted ahead of him in 2009 have had better production. If he was drafted in the first round for a reason and hyped as much as he was and sold to us that he is a top-six forward in the league and a potential dynamic scorer then let him try to be that. There aren’t any better options right now.

Since then, Kreider has two goals and five assists in seven games and it’s the first time I have understood the decision to not include him in a February 2012 trade though I still don’t agree with it (and likely never will).

Henrik Lundqvist
Welcome back, Henrik. Like Annie telling her father (Nicolas Cage) at the end of The Family Man: “I knew you’d come back. ”

After battling through an injury that led to him putting up Ilya Bryzgalov-like numbers, Lundqvist has allowed just nine goals in the six games since returning from his injury (three of those goals came on Sunday) and in four of the six games he has allowed one goal or less. I don’t think anyone expected Lundqvist to continue to allow three-plus goals a game like he was doing on the West Coast Embarrassment Tour and I don’t think anyone thought that the idea of being in a contract year was playing a part in his early-season failures either, but the thought of the Rangers trying to get by with an average Lundqvist was scary.

When the Rangers lost Nash and opened the season looking like they would be in a basement battle all season with the Devils and Flyers, the last thing anyone wanted to do was worry about the possibility of Lundqvist leaving a team with a losing future. Now there are reports that Glen Sather is expected to meet with Lundqvist’s agent Don Meehan in Toronto this week with the timing of the Hall of Fame inductions, which would seem like a good idea since it’s just a tiny bit important that Lundqvist doesn’t leave the Rangers for a better future and a better chance at winning with the Penguins or Islanders or a team that’s ready to write a blank check for him. If they continue to be the Real Rangers, he won’t have to.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 7, 2013

NFL Week 10 Picks

The Giants are back from their bye week and hopefully the second half of their season and the second half of the picks season will go better than the first half.

The Giants haven’t ruined a Sunday for me since Oct. 6 when they lost to Nick Vick in Philadelphia. Since then they have played on Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, beat the Eagles at MetLife in their only Sunday game since the loss to Nick Vick and then had their bye week. So that means this Sunday a month without Giants-induced depression Sundays will be put to the test against the Raiders.

With the Giants playing the Raiders and the Cowboys in New Orleans for what is likely an inevitable loss at the Superdome where everyone loses, the Giants could be one game back with seven to play and one of those seven against the Cowboys. Before I talk myself into taking the Giants back and making it Facebook official again, I’m just going to get into the picks.

Week 10! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA +2.5 over Washington
The Thursday Night Football record is now at 7-2 and with success comes expectations, which is the last thing I need as I wait for the other shoe to drop with my Thursday picks. But in my wish to have the NFC East cleared out so that it’s the Giants and the Cowboys down the stretch it means the Redskins need to start losing.

TENNESSEE -12 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars have lost by less than 12 points once this season when they lost 19-9 in Oakland in Week 2. Aside from that game, they have lost by 26, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32. So as I have said before, there isn’t a realistic line in which I would take the Jaguars and certainly not at 12.

Philadelphia +1 over GREEN BAY
The moment Seneca Wallace took over for an injured Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football, we all finally saw what the Packers are without Rodgers even at Lambeau. Now Seneca and the Packers get to face Nick Foles and the Eagles and try to put out the only flicker of hope Philadelphia sports fans have right now with the Flyers in last place, the 76ers expected to finish last in the NBA and the Phillies still owing Ryan Howard at least $85 million between now and 2017. I want nothing more than for Foles to add to Philadelphia sports misery, but I know how bad Seneca Wallace is.

Buffalo +3 over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers’ season is over. At 2-6 and 3.5 games back in the AFC North and 2.5 games back of a playoff berth the have nothing to play for. They are just a name at this point and if their roster of players’ team name were say the Falcons and not the Steelers then they wouldn’t be a 3-point favorite at home against the Bills, but thanks to their national following they are. The Steelers are an old, worn-out team and unfortunately they aren’t facing Jeff Tuel this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Oakland
Is it 2012? Or 2011? Or 2010? Or any year other than 2013? The Giants favored by more than a touchdown? The 2013 Giants? If we’re going to make this thing work down the stretch where it’s the Giants and Cowboys fighting for the division and a home playoff game (yes, the Giants could possibly host a playoff game this season) then they are going to need to prove they are capable of a run. And proving you’re capable of a run means beating the Raiders by more than a touchdown at home.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 over St. Louis
Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road.

Seattle -6 over ATLANTA
The Seahawks’ four road wins have come by 5, 3, 12 and 5 points, so it’s hard to feel confident about them going to Atlanta and covering 6. But this will be the first game the Falcons will play since having their season officially ended and there’s not better than an elite team and a real true Super Bowl contender facing a team that has nothing to play for.

BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cincinnati
The defending Super Bowl champs are a loss on Sunday away from not being able to defend their title this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise since they are currently riding a three-game losing streak with those three losses coming by a combined 11 points and since they just lost after their bye week in Cleveland to Jason Campbell and the Browns. Even knowing all of this, I’m taking the Ravens.

Carolina +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Panthers’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 8-33 record, so this week it will certainly be the Panthers’ first real test since their 12-7 Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Seahawks, 49ers and Saints are the elite teams in the NFC, but the Panthers are in the tier right below them.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Houston
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -7 over SAN DIEGO
This line does seem high for a divisional matchup between a great team on the road against a good team, but I would rather lose with Peyton Manning than lose with Philip Rivers knowing that I went against Peyton Manning.

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Dallas
The Saints burned me in Foxboro with their last-second loss to the Patriots and then again with their embarrassing performance in East Rutherford. But the Saints never burn me at home in the Superdome where no opponent really stands a chance, especially not the Cowboys, who have one road win this season that came against the Eagles in Week 7. That’s not exactly the road resume of a team playing in primetime in New Orleans that you want to back.

Miami -3 over TAMPA BAY
Darrelle Revis said on Twitter that making $16 million and playing for the winless Buccaneers is better than making $12 million and playing for the 5-4 Jets. Sure, Revis has a point that getting paid 33 percent more is better, but have you heard the term “Revis Island” (that Revis recently trademarked) lately or anything positive about Revis? No, you haven’t because Revis is playing in the wrong system for his talent and abilities on the wrong team and wasting away in Tampa Bay in the Buccaneers’ 0-8 circus while his former team currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs. Enjoy the extra millions in football Siberia.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 57-71-5

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 31, 2013

NFL Week 9 Picks

The Giants have a bye week in Week 9, but I don’t get one in the road to respectability this picks season.

The Giants are 1-0 in their last three Sundays thanks to Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football and that record will stay intact through this Sunday as well with the Giants’ bye this week. What I’m trying to say is that this Sunday will mark a month of non-depressing Sundays thanks to the Giants.

And like the New York Football Giants season, which my picks season has mirrored this season, I have recorded two over-.500 weeks the last two weeks for my first two over-.500 weeks of the season. But unlike the Giants, I don’t get a bye to regroup and the fight back to respectability (if it’s even obtainable) continues in Week 9.

Week 9 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MIAMI +2.5 over Cincinnati
This week is an absolute gauntlet for lines with five of the 13 games featuring lines of 7 or more. But even with so much uncertainty across the league, I can always count in the Thursday Night Football pick to give me a win since I’m not 6-2 on the year on the much-hated Thursday game.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Atlanta
The Panthers are a frustrating team, but their only home loss came in Week 1 against the Seahawks, who might be the best team in the league, and they have won their other three home games by 25, 15 and 18. So when it comes to the banged-up, underachieving 2-5 Falcons, it’s the right decision, even if it’s an NFC South matchup.

DALLAS -10 over Minnesota
When the ESPN ticker said, “Christian Ponder will start for the second straight week,” I knew all I needed to know.

New Orleans -7 over NEW YORK JETS
A tricky, tricky game because the Jets are a different team in MetLife (3-1) than they are on the road (1-3) and the Saints are a different team anywhere outside the Superdome. But after what I saw from the Jets last week in Cincinnati, I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Geno Smith to cover against Drew Brees since I’m not sure I feel confident the Jets can even score a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +3 over Tennessee
It feels like the Titans had a double bye week last week since it feels like forever since I had to pick one of their games. After starting the season 3-1, they have lost three games in a row and their losing streak started when Jake Locker was injured. But don’t let the Titans semi-respectable 3-4 record fool you since their three wins have come against the Steelers, Chargers and Jets.

Kansas City -4.5 over BUFFALO
I really, really, really wanted to take the Bills here and pick for Thad Lewis, but now that he’s out and Jeff Tuel, possibly the worst quarterback of the 2013 season is in, I’m not sure how I can take the Bills to keep it close in Buffalo against the last undefeated team.

WASHINGTON 0 over San Diego
The Giants are 2-6 and still in the NFC East race. The Redskins are 2-5 and in even better shape in the NFC East race. Unfortunately, I think the Redskins will be there in the end. Not “be there” as in win the division, but I think they will be fighting right up until the holiday season with the Giants and Cowboys while the Eagles finish up another fourth-place season.

OAKLAND -2.5 over Philadelphia
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or an Eagles fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -16 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is the new Jacksonville in that I would take pretty much any elite team to cover any spread against them. Sixteen points? That’s it?

CLEVELAND +2.5 over Baltimore
Is Jason Campbell the answer at quarterback for the Browns? Did I really just ask that question in 2013?

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Pittsburgh
The Patriots aren’t what we have known the Patriots to be since the 2000s, but that doesn’t matter against the 2013 Steelers at Gillette Stadium.

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
This game badly screams, “TRAP! TRAP! TRAP!” but I’m going to do it anyway.

GREEN BAY -11 over Chicago
No Jay Cutler? This line seems low.

Last week: 7-6-0
Season: 51-65-4