Keefe To The City

Dec 7, 2013

I’m Going to Miss Robinson Cano

The Yankees mistreated their homegrown second baseman in free agency and now Robinson Cano is a Mariner.

Three years ago, Cliff Lee ruined Christmas. On Dec. 13, 2010, Lee chose the “mystery” Phillies over the Yankees and left me only to envision what a rotation led by CC Sabathia and Lee could look like. I stayed up until 6 a.m. that night writing this eventual column, which was a borderline emotional and physical breakdown after losing out on Lee twice in four-plus months despite deals being on the 1-yard line.

This year, Robinson Cano has ruined Christmas. Or Brian Cashman and the Yankees have ruined Christmas. Or the combination of Jay-Z, Roc Nation and CAA have ruined Christmas. It depends on how you look at it. I blame Brian Cashman and the Yankees.

I opened that Cliff Lee column by saying:

I was thinking of sending in the lyrics to Pearl Jam’s “Black” instead of writing this since I am holding back tears and shaking, but I wasn’t sure if turning in Eddie Vedder’s work as my own counts as plagiarism since it’s a song.

But I’m not joking anymore. With Cano headed for the Pacifc Northwest and grunge and rain and Starbucks, I’m turning to Eddie’s magical voice to help me get through this one.

Hey… oooh…

Sheets of empty canvas, untouched sheets of clay
Were laid spread out before me as her body once did.
All five horizons revolved around her soul as the earth to the sun
Now the air I tasted and breathed has taken a turn

On Monday morning, while Brian Cashman was rappelling down a building in Stamford, Conn., a seemingly annual tradition for the general manager who broke his leg last offseason jumping out of an airplane with the Golden Knights, his free-agent second baseman (the player who was supposed to be the next face of the franchise and transition the Jeter-Rivera-Pettitte years into the next era of Yankees baseball) was in Seattle meeting with the Mariners.

The first news of the day I found out was that Cano and Jay-Z (or Jay-Z) turned down the Mariners’ offer and the deal was off after Cano’s team’s incredible demands. But then out of nowhere, while I sat back and waited for the Yankees to come in to save the day, a deal between Cano and the Mariners became imminent. There was no report of new talks or progression or anything. Out of nowhere, the Mariners had upped their offer to the Albert Pujols’ level of 10 years and $240 million. With A-Rod on the books until 2017 with his ill-advised 10-year deal, Mark Teixeira breaking down with three years years to go on his eight-year deal and Jacoby Ellsbury yet to start his new seven-year deal (which will mean I will be watching a 37-year-old Ellsbury in the Yankees outfield in 2020), I knew there was no way Cashman and the Yankees would counter the Mariners’ offer at the last minute. Robinson Cano was gone.

Ooh, and all I taught her was everything
Ooh, I know she gave me all that she wore

And now my bitter hands chafe beneath the clouds of what was everything.
Oh, the pictures have all been washed in black, tattooed everything…

Some Yankees fans are happy that Cano is gone because they are happy the Yankees aren’t locked into him for seven or more years for a high six-figure salary. They are happy because down the road, in say 2019 or beyond, Cano’s contract might have become a burden on the team and prevented them from making other moves. They think this because they think the Yankees work under some sort of budget.

For two years, maybe more, we have heard about the goal to stay under $189 million (a goal … not a mandate) for the 2014 season and avoid luxury tax penalties. But when the Yankees missed the playoffs for the second time since 1993, the Stadium attendance dropped and the upper deck looked as empty as it did in the ’80s and the team was a month into their offseason as their rival won the World Series for the third time in 10 seasons, the $189 million goal went out the window just like every budget the Yankees have ever suggested. And if something similar happens in four or five or six years or ever, the Yankees will spend that winter doing the same thing they did this winter and the same thing they did after the 2008 season when they gave $423.5 million to Sabathia, Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.

I take a walk outside, I’m surrounded by some kids at play
I can feel their laughter, so why do I sear?
Oh, and twisted thoughts that spin round my head, I’m spinning, oh,
I’m spinning, how quick the sun can drop away

There is a belief that Cano felt mistreated by the Yankees’ offer and he should feel that he was mistreated because he was. But he shouldn’t be surprised by the Yankees’ actions. The Yankees under Brian Cashman have proven they will lowball their own players and nickel and dime them in free agency, but will have no problem throwing money at other team’s players.

After the 1998 season, the Yankees tried to screw over Bernie Williams by offering him $60.5 million and Number 51 was ready to go to Boston for $90 million before the Yankees made literally a last-second call to Williams and offered $87.5 million, which was still a lowball offer from Boston’s, but Williams took it. Five years ago, the Yankees had no problem giving Burnett a fifth year after the 2008 season and $82.5 million, outbidding themselves in a sweepstakes against no one. Two years later, Cashman would publicly call out Derek Jeter, while the Yankees front office counted their pennies for the face of their franchise and the most important Yankee to the team’s finances for nearly two decades.

Yes, it was ridiculous that reports, whether true or not, came out that Cano was looking for $310 million as if he were looking for Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. And it’s ridiculous that the Mariners are willing to pay him $240 million over the next 10 years. But it’s really ridiculous that the Yankees were willing to give $153 million to an inferior player in Jacoby Ellsbury while maintaining their stance on their own Cano at $175 million. The Yankees didn’t and don’t need Ellsbury. They do need Cano. And without signing a luxury, not a necessity, in Ellsbury, they would have been able to up their seven-year, $175 million offer to Cano (even though they’re the Yankees and they could have upped it anyway).

And now my bitter hands cradle broken glass of what was everything
All the pictures have all been washed in black, tattooed everything…

All the love gone bad turned my world to black
Tattooed all I see, all that I am, all I’ll be… yeah…

In the last four seasons, Jacoby Ellsbury has played 384 of a possible 648 games. In 2011, he finished second in the AL MVP voting after hitting .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 46 doubles, 119 runs and 39 stolen bases. But that was two years ago and was his only double-digit home run season in his six-plus year career. And those 32 home runs make up 49 percent of his career total (65) since entering the league in 2007.

In the last seven seasons, Robinson Cano has missed 14 games … total. He has never played fewer than 122 games in his nine-year career, is a career .309 hitter with four consecutive Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves and has finished in the Top 6 in MVP voting in the last four years. He has hit 25-plus home runs the last five years, has three seasons with 107-plus RBIs and seven seasons with 41-plus doubles. He is considered a Top 5 hitter in the game, the best all-around second baseman in baseball and a Hall of Fame candidate.

If the 30-year-old Ellsbury is worth $153 million on the open market then how are you going to tell your home-grown, soon-to-be 31-year-old second baseman and the best player on your team that he’s only worth $22 million more? I’m asking because I don’t know the answer.

Uh huh… uh huh… ooh…

I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life,
I know you’ll be a star in somebody else’s sky,
But why, why, why can’t it be, can’t it be mine?

The justification of losing Cano has turned into fans being happy that the Yankees didn’t end up getting him for a costly amount as if they were footing the bill. But for those who didn’t care about the money, they cite his lack of hustle as a reason to be fine with him no longer being a Yankee.

Cano’s seemingly care-free attitude was frustrating at times. In October 2012, with the trip to the World Series on the line, he watched the ALCS like he was on vacation at a resort in Aruba. How’s he going to watch a mathematically-eliminated Mariners team play out the string in August and September? Maybe flood the dugout and lay on a raft?

I have never been one to think Robinson Cano is lazy. Yes, he tries to be smooth and make plays look so smooth and easy, and he almost always successful in doing so, but there’s a reason Joe Girardi had to bench him in September 2008 for a lack of hustle on a fielding play. And there’s a reason why Larry Bowa was on his ass when Joe Torre was the manager. There were times when he could done a little more to make an important play like this non-diving attempt, which would have prevented a run against the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS.

And there were times when he just needed to get the ball out of the outfield or take a pitch and he wouldn’t or when he would swing at the first pitch in the late innings of a game in which the Yankees were trailing, which was a popular Cano move on getaway day. It’s not like these things happened all the time. The problem is they happened in New York, so it seems like they happened all the time.

But for all the negative remarks that will be made about Cano as fans try to justify to themselves that it’s not a big deal that he’s gone, they should remember him for being a part of the 2009 championship team, the way he tried to carry the offense in the 2005 ALDS and 2007 ALDS, his four home runs against the Rangers in the 2010 ALCS and his grand slam off Al Alburquerque in the 2011 ALDS. They shouldn’t remember the way he ended his Yankees’ postseason career, going 2-for-22 (.091) against the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS and 1-for-18 (.056) against the Tigers in the 2012 ALCS.

Aah… uuh..

Too doo doo too, too doo doo

No one thought Cano, a Dominican-born player, would leave the Yankees. No one thought he would give up an annual chance at a championship for the lowly Mariners, who have finished over .500 once in the last six years and have four postseason appearances to the Yankees’ 17 since 1995. No one thought Jay-Z, a Yankees fan himself who rode in the 2009 World Series parade with the team, would let his client leave the Bronx. Then again, no one thought Cano would get nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in state-tax free Washington.

If the Mariners were willing to give a 10-year, $240 million offer (which they obviously were) then the Yankees never had a chance. The New York City life, the big-market attention, the idea of being a lifetime Yankee, having Number 24 end up in Monument Park and a potential Cooperstown plaque with a Yankees hat meant more to those who analyze Cano than it ever meant to Cano.

Cano got his $240 million. I got Ellsbury, McCann and Carlos Beltran and the 2014 Yankees are already better than the 2013 Yankees were. But that doesn’t mean I won’t miss the swing, the smooth poses, the throws from the shortstop side of second and the over-the-shoulder-catches of Robinson Cano.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 5, 2013

NFL Week 14 Picks

The quest for .500 continues with four weeks left in the regular season.

Last week I went into the 4:00 games with a 7-2-1 record between the Thanksgiving games and the Sunday 1:00 games. I ended up finishing the week at 8-7-1. That pretty much sums up this picks season.

Week 14! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Houston
After a 2-1 Thanksgiving Day, the Thursday picks are 10-4. This is the one game I feel confident picking.

Kansas City -3.5 over WASHINGTON
Once upon a time, the Chiefs were 9-0. Now they’re 9-3. With three consecutive losses to the Denver (27-17), San Diego (41-38) and Denver (35-28) again, the Chiefs have given up almost more points in the last three weeks (103) than they had in their first nine games (111). But now the Chiefs go to Washington where the Redskins are marred by a 3-9 record and a season of turmoil that will likely lead to the departure of Mike Shanahan at the end of the season and will lead to a long offseason of “Robert Griffin III or Kirk Cousins” debates. I can’t wait.

Minnesota +7 over BALTIMORE
I’m picking the Vikings here because they have done a good job for me this season and I want to repay them for their efforts. But really I’m picking them because I want the Ravens’ offense to get off a lackluster start so that John Harbaugh brings out the Wildcat and then Joe Flacco calls out Harbaugh again in his postgame press conference. These are the things you look forward to in Week 14 when your team is 5-7 and the playoffs aren’t a real possibility.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Cleveland
No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

Oakland +3 over NEW YORK JETS
Geno Smith has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14. Here is what Smith has done since Week 7.

Week 8 at Cincinnati: 20-for-30, 159 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 9 vs. New Orleans: 8-for-19, 115 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Week 11 at Buffalo: 8-for-23, 103 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs

Week 12 at Baltimore: 9-for-22, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 13 vs. Miami: 4-for-10, 29 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

He has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14.

Indianapolis +7 over Cincinnati
Yes, I know the Bengals are undefeated at home and the Colts are the weirdest team in the NFL, but seven points with two 8-4 teams?

Detroit +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Yes, the Giants are done when it comes to the playoff picture. But there is that little, tiny, miniscule, minute chance that they could get in. The only way that’s possible is if the Eagles and Cowboys collapse. And given the history of both teams, it’s very possible. The one problem is that the best record the Giants can be is 9-7. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 7-5, but play each other in Week 17, so one of the two teams will win at least one more game this season. So let’s say the Cowboys win that Week 17 game, that means at worst they would finish the season 8-8. And let’s say the Eagles finish the season 1-3 and end up 8-8 also. That’s what it would take for the Giants to make the playoffs.

Miami +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I just don’t want the Steelers to do well, OK?

TAMPA BAY -3 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

GREEN BAY -4 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still upset about the parlay from last year.

DENVER -13.5 over Tennessee
The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season and have won by margins of 22, 16, 32, 16, 24 and 10 points. That’s good enough for me.

ARIZONA -6.5 over St. Louis
The Cardinals couldn’t help the Giants out last week by pulling off the late-game comeback against the Eagles and usually that would make me pick against the team I needed. But in this case, I’m staying with the Cardinals since if I pick against them, they will cover. Yes, that’s what this picks season has come to.

New York Giants +4 over SAN DIEGO
The over/under on stories from the FOX broadcast team about the 2004 Draft and Eli Manning and Philip Rivers during this game is set at 12.5 and I have the over. Even if the Giants’ season is over, I don’t want Eli to lose to Rivers, or get outplayed.

SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Seattle
Why wait until Feb. 4 to have the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl? Why not just have it right now while temperatures are still somewhat manageable since that’s what the Super Bowl matchup is going to be? The same way the Broncos and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLVII. The same way the Patriots and Packers met in Super Bowl XLVI. And the same way the Patriots and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLV. Sure there are years like 2009 when the Colts and Saints (both 1-seeds) did end up playing in the Super Bowl, but more times than not the 1-seeds don’t meet.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Carolina
Do I need to post it again from old picks? OK, I will …

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

CHICAGO +1 over Dallas
What I said about the Eagles.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 83-101-8

Blogs • Rangers

Dec 4, 2013

The Henrik Lundqvist Extension

Glen Sather made the one move he’s absolutely had to make as Rangers general manager: extend Henrik Lundqvist.

Here were my reactions in order after hearing Alain Vigneault was going to bench Henrik Lundqvist in favor of Cam Talbot.

1. (Laughter)

2. What?

3. Is this real life?

4. Are you effing nuts, AV?

Henrik Lundqvist has been the sole reason for any Rangers success in the post-lockout era with maybe the exception of his rookie season in 2005-06. Then again, the Rangers’ success that season was going to be defined by just making the playoffs for the first time in forever (or nine years) and that’s why their five-game, first-round loss to the Devils wasn’t viewed as much of a disappointment. The face of the franchise, the backbone of the organization and the one man responsible for the Rangers’ postseason drought not running into its 17th year was going to be benched for a 26-year-old rookie with seven career starts? Oh …

Benching Lundqvist wasn’t going to go over well with Lundqvist (even if he pretended like he was fine with the decision) and it wasn’t going to go over well with a fan base wondering why a first-year Rangers head coach would decide to shake things up like Coach Orion taking over for Gordon Bombay. The only way for the controversy to end would be if the Rangers were to lose when Talbot started in place of Lundqvist. So in order for everything to be righted, the Rangers would need to give up two valuable points. And that’s what happened.

But let’s live in an “if” world for a minute. What if the Rangers had won against the Jets on Monday night? Talbot would have to start in Buffalo on Thursday after winning back-to-back games as the now No. 1 goalie, which would then turn a seemingly harmless one-game break for Lundqvist in an Olympic-condensed season into a full-blown controversy. A win over the Jets would have forced the Vigneault-created crisis to take on a life of its own. What would be made of AV’s inability to manage goalies after the Roberto Luongo-Cory Schneider disaster in Vancouver? What would become of Lundqvist if Talbot were to win again in Buffalo on Thursday and consistently win? What would happen with the relationship of the new head coach and the face of the franchise? What would this do for Lundqvist’s impending free agency? Most importantly, what would become of Lundqvist’s contract negotiations and extension?

Luckily, none of that matters now and not because the Rangers lost to the Jets in their quest to never separate themselves more than one game over the .500 mark. It doesn’t matter now because Glen Sather did the one general managerial he absolutely had to do since becoming Rangers general manager in 2000: extend Henrik Lundqvist.

Lundqvist will be a Ranger next year. After signing a seven-year extension, he will be a Ranger for the next seven years. He will be a Ranger for his entire career (well, unless he is looking for some money when he’s 38 and the Rangers aren’t willing to give it to him, but that’s something we can worry about for the 2020-21 season).

A lot of people are unhappy with the years and dollars committed to the 31-year-old and the belief of paying him for what he has done over the last seven years and not what he will do over the next seven years. But it was going to take the Rangers giving Lundqvist a seventh year and it was going to take at least $8 million per season to keep him in New York with the free-agent market waiting and teams with better futures and more realistic Cup-winning chances ready to break the bank. So if you wanted Lundqvist to retire as a Ranger and one day watch him raise his Number 30 in MSG then that means you were fine with what it wound up costing. And if you wanted Lundqvist to stay, but at a lesser price, then you never really wanted him to stay or at least were fine with him leaving.

Sure, there’s a very good chance and pretty much a certainty that the 37- and 38-year-old Lundqvist won’t be posting the 1.97 GAA that the 29-year-old Lundqvist did or the 11 shutouts that the 28-year-old Lundqvist did. But right now this Rangers team (and by “this Rangers team” I mean the 2014-15, 2016-17, and so on teams because he is already on and under contract with the current Rangers team) needs Lundqvist. They can’t worry about what his level of play will be like in 2019-20 and 2020-21. This June it will be 20 years since the Rangers won the Stanley Cup and without Lundqvist the chances of that drought ending in the near future weren’t going to improve. In the spirit of Christmas, let’s borrow the Ghost of Rangers past to show how every post-Cup Rangers season has ended.

1994-95: Lost second round
1995-96: Lost second round
1996-97: Lost conference finals
1997-98: Missed playoffs
1998-99: Missed playoffs
1999-00: Missed playoffs
2000-01: Missed playoffs
2001-02: Missed playoffs
2002-03: Missed playoffs
2003-04: Missed playoffs
2005-06: Lost first round
2006-07: Lost second round
2007-08: Lost second round
2008-09: Lost first round
2009-10: Missed playoffs
2010-11: Lost first round
2011-12: Lost conference finals
2012-13: Lost second round

Still worried about and want to complain about having a 36-, 37- and 38-year-old Lundqvist? Does anyone really want to complain about having the best goalie in the world in 2014-15 because of what he might be in five-plus years?

The biggest knock on Lundqvist during his career has been his “inability” to lead the Rangers to the Cup or even the Stanley Cup Final, which is a comical knock since one person isn’t going to lead any team to the Cup by single-handedly winning four seven-game series against only the best teams in the league. Once the 83rd game of the season starts everyone seems to forget that Lundqvist is actually the one mostly responsible for getting the Rangers to that 83rd game and the “What have you done for me lately?” crowd takes over. The same crowd that booed Marian Gaborik because he didn’t want to use 40-goal scoring body as a shot-blocking pylon for John Tortorella and muck it up in the corners like a fourth-line grinder. The same crowd that jumps on their seat and causes chaos in the aisles over free T-shirts during TV timeouts. But here’s something that crowd probably doesn’t know or doesn’t care enough to know.

The Rangers have reached the postseason in four of the last five years. In that time, they are 19-25 in the playoffs, which means Lundqvist is 19-25 in the playoffs over that time. In those 25 playoff losses, the Rangers have scored 36 goals or 1.44 goals per game. Here is the breakdown by goals scored in the losses and how many times they scored each amount of goals:

0 goals: 5
1 goal: 9
2 goals: 8
3 goals: 3
4 or more goals: 0

That’s 14 playoff losses when the Rangers couldn’t score more than one goal and 22 when they couldn’t score more than two.

No, Lundqvist’s career will never be complete without winning it all. He knows that. That’s why the thought of going to the open market and a better place caused these negotiations to drag on through the first two-plus months of the season. He knows that when it comes time to raise his Number 30 that if it he must do so without his name on the Cup, it will as empty as buying a brand new house, but being unable to furnish it.

The Rangers and their fans need new memories. The 1993-94 season was two decades ago and the team, the Garden and the MSG Network have exhausted every possible perspective to recapture and remember the Cup run. The first step in trying to create those memories has always been locking up Henrik Lundqvist.

Podcasts • Rangers

Dec 4, 2013

Podcast: Kevin DeLury

Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers Blog joins me to talk about the decision to bench Henrik Lundqvist and whether or not the Rangers are destined to lose in the first or second round of the playoffs again.

The Rangers’ goalie controversy is over. After Alain Vigneault decided it would be a good idea to bench the face of the franchise and the sole reason for any Rangers success in the post-lockout era in favor of a rookie goaltender with seven career starts under his belt, everything is back to normal. And the only reason everything is back to normal is because that rookie goaltender allowed four goals in his temporary role as the No. 1 and the Rangers lost.

Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers Blog joined me to talk about Vigneault’s decision to bench Henrik Lundqvist in favor of Cam Talbot along with the complicated contract negotiations for Lundqvist, the job Vigneault has done through the first two months as head coach and whether or not the Rangers are destined to lose in the first or second round of the playoffs again.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 28, 2013

NFL Week 13 Picks

After another devastating weeks of picks, a .500 season is a pipe dream at this point.

It’s Week 13 and after 12 weeks of learning about each of the league’s 32 teams, you start to feel confident, well somewhat confident, when making picks. After going 34-54-4 through the first six weeks of the season, I went 36-31-3 over the next five weeks, only to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg in Week 12 with a 4-10-0 week. But with five weeks left before the playoff picks start, .500 seems like a pipe dream at this point.

It’s a pipe dream because we’re now at the point in the season where more teams are eliminated from contention and on the brink of mathematical elimination and the motivation of the postseason and the Super Bowl is no longer possible. Instead coaching staffs, some who are coaching for their livelihoods, are forced to manufacture artificial motivation, which is hard to do in a sport where you’re asking players to sacrifice their own livelihoods on every play in a lost season. And that’s why after inching so close back toward the .500 mark, it’s going to be hard and likely impossible to get there when you don’t know what to expect from teams you thought you have figured out over the first 12 weeks of the season.

Week 13! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

DETROIT -6.5 over Green Bay
Thursday is when I feel the best with my picks. With an 8-3 record on Thursday Night football this season, I get three games to try to once again turn my season around.

The Lions have lost 15 of their last 16 games against the Packers, which doesn’t bode well for picking a team to not only win but cover 6.5. But none of those games came across a recycled Matt Flynn, who couldn’t start in Oakland or Buffalo and needed Aaron Rodgers and Seneca Wallace to both get hurt for another chance in Green Bay.

DALLAS -9.5 over Oakland
It pains me that the NFC East will be represented by either Dallas or Philadelphia either and it pains me even more that on Thanksgiving Day I will have to watch the Cowboys improve to 7-5 while everyone gets ready to write the “woe is Tony Romo’s career” stories. The only good thing is that I will get the “Tony Romo will never win” stories in a little over a month.

Pittsburgh +3 over BALTIMORE
When these two teams met in Week 7 I said:

Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

The Steelers won that Week 7 game 19-16. That means nine of the 11 games have been decided by three points.

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 over Tennessee
I will never figure out the 2013 Indianapolis Colts. Their wins have been against Oakland, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Seattle, Denver, Houston and Tennessee. There losses have been against Miami, San Diego, St. Louis and Arizona. They have wins against arguably the best three teams in the NFL and losses to three teams with losing records. In November, they went 2-2, beating the Texans and Titans both by three points and losing to the Rams by 30 and the Cardinals by 29. I don’t believe in the Colts, but I believe in Andrew Luck more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Jacksonville +7 over CLEVELAND
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Also, Brandon Weeden is starting.

CAROLINA -7 over Tampa Bay
Everyone is riding high on the Buccaneers right now and how Greg Schiano turned the team around and is punching his ticket to another season and another chance in Tampa Bay despite everything that went wrong (and everything went wrong) in the first two months of the season. If the Panthers win this week and the Saints lose in Seattle (and the Saint are going to lose in Seattle) then the two teams will be tied at 9-3 atop the NFC South. That means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ image reconstruction will be stopped in Carolina.

MINNESOTA 0 over Chicago
In Chicago, with Jay Cutler, the Bears needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Vikings 31-30 in Week 2. Give me the Vikings.

Arizona +3 over PHILADELPHIA
If the Giants season is over then I don’t want the road to the division title to be easy for either the Eagles or the Cowboys. The Eagles still have the Arizona (7-4), Detroit (7-5), Chicago with Cutler (6-5) and Dallas (7-5) remaining on their schedule. Their only easy opponent is Minneosta in Week 15, but that game is at Minnesota. Maybe the Giants can get back into it? What? I’m just kidding.

Miami +2 over NEW YORK JETS
The 5-6 gongshow that has been built in the AFC is an absolute joke, but because every mediocre team has a chance to make the playoffs as the 6-seed in the AFC, the Jets and Dolphins are still in it. Normally I would take the home team in a divisional matchup giving less than three points, but with Mark Sanchez saying he will be a Jet next year and back and better than ever, who isn’t pulling for a Jets collapse followed by yet another Jets quarterback debacle next season?

New England -9 over HOUSTON
The Texans are a disaster. They were 2-0 after their Week 2 win over the Titans on Sept. 15, but since then they are have lost nine straight games and six of the nine games have been decided by less than a touchdown. I thought that after Case Keenum took over as the starting quarterback and the Texans blew that big lead on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 that they could turn their season around or at least finishing strong. But since then they have lost three more games. Their season is long gone.

BUFFALO -3.5 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still picking against the Falcons for costing me the 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay last season. And I plan on picking against them for that for a long time.

St. Louis +9 over SAN FRANCISCO
After Colin Kaepernick threw for 412 yards in the 49ers’ Week 1 win over Green Bay, I thought we were looking at the beginning of the next dynasty with the 49ers’ progression after their 2011 NFC Championship Game loss then their 2012 Super Bowl loss. But since then Kaepernick has only passed for 200-plus yards in two of the other 10 games and the 49ers at 7-4 are certainly one of the top tier teams in the league, but not what I expected them to be. I thought they easily be the best team in the NFC, but they aren’t. The best team in the NFC beat the 49ers by 26 points. If anything, the 49ers are the Colts of the NFC.

KANSAS CITY +5.5 over Denver
The knock on the Chiefs prior to the last Chiefs-Broncos meeting two weeks ago was that they could play great defense, but Alex Smith couldn’t take over a game when needed (like he he hasn’t been able to do in his entire career) and the only way for the Chiefs to win would be through their defense. The defense held Denver to 27 points on the road, but Smith wasn’t able to carry the team like everyone predicted. That loss must have rattled the Chiefs since the following week they scored a season-high 38 points against the Chargers, but allowed a season-high 41, against which was 14 more than they had previously allowed all season. The Broncos proved in Foxboro and also in Indianapolis that they are a different team on the road when the opponent is good and even with the Chiefs’ noticeable flaws, the Broncos as 5.5-point favorites is too much.

SAN DIEGO -1 over Cincinnati
Who’s that still alive in the playoff hunt at 5-6? Why its another AFC team! Yes, the Chargers, who started the year 2-3 and then endured a three-game losing streak in November, are still in the playoff picture. And the good news for the Chargers is that four of their five remaining games are at home where they have beaten the Cowboys and Colts and suffered an eight-point loss the Broncos, which is almost a victory. Meanwhile, the Bengals can’t be trusted to put away the AFC North and the Bengals certainly can’t be trusted on the road.

WASHINGTON +2 over New York Giants
This is actually one of those …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Yes, this is one of rhose games, but because it’s Sunday Night Football and everyone’s last chance of the day to wager on a game, a lot of non-Giants and non-Redskins fans will be betting on it.

It’s never easy picking against your own team especially when playing against a division rival who’s 3-8. But the Giants are 4-7 and virtually the same team as the Redskins. Neither team has anything to play for that point. The Giants aren’t making the playoffs. The team isn’t even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs. So what is the Giants’ motivation at this point? A winning season? Respectability? This team has suffered several second-half collapses during the Tom Coughlin era with their motivation being the playoffs. So now you’re asking me to believe that they are going to start winning games with the motivation being something other than playing for a championship? No thanks.

SEATTLE -5.5 over New Orleans
It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints. And that goes for normal road stadiums. But CenturyLink Field isn’t your normal road stadium and the worst possible place the Saints could play their most important game of the season (see: Seahawks-Saints 2010 playoff game).

Last week: 4-10-0
Season: 75-94-7