Back-to-back losing days for the first time this season. On Wednesday, the Yankees lost a one-run game and scored one run against the most favorable matchup of all time to ruin that money line bet. The Red Sox blew a ninth-inning lead to blow that under and Justin Verlander gave up a late-game, meaningless home run to destroy that under. So close to a 3-0 night and instead an 0-3 night.

Last night, there was just one pick (Mets-Phillies under), which was three outs away from a win before the Mets’ seven-run rally in the ninth. A tough last two days.

Here are the bets for Friday, May 6.

Pirates-Reds Under 9 (120)
One third of the league is postponed on Friday night, so there are only 10 games to pick from and not a lot of good money line parlays to pair together without any real lopsided matchups tonight. I actually thought about taking the Reds at +100 against the Pirates, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it.

I’m going all unders tonight and the first is that Pirates-Reds game at 9. Neither team can hit. Unfortunately, neither team can pitch as well. But a 9 is like a 12 these days, and it can’t be passed up.

White Sox-Red Sox Under 8.5 (-120)
I wouldn’t trust Vince Velasquez to tell me what the day of the week it is. My biggest fear in this game is that he walks five or six and ruins it all by himself. Or Nathan Eovaldi could lay an egg for all of the nasty things I have said about him since his time with the Yankees. But one good starter plus one bad starter plus two bad offenses equals value at under 8.5

Brewers-Braves Under 8.5 (-120)
The Brewers are 18-8 and are tied for the most runs in the league. So why is it that when I bet on them to win, they can’t score? Well, tonight I don’t want them to score. The Braves won’t score much since they’re not very good and both pitching staffs are excellent.

Tigers-Astros Under 8.5 (-114)
The Astros love low-scoring games. Their offense still isn’t clicking and their starting pitching is carrying them to wins. The Tigers’ offense could be clicking and this is just them clicking to the best of their ability because they aren’t very good. I think Luis Garcia will be solid against a weak Tigers lineup and I hope the element of surprise and having never seen Beau Brieske will lead to some zeros in the early innings for the Astros’ offense.

Rockies-Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (-105)
Two starters having All-Star seasons with a 1.90 ERA for Chad Kuhl and 1.27 ERA for Merrill Kelly. When Kuhl and Kelly have those numbers through a month, you know baseball is broken. It’s numbers like that have forced over/unders to mostly be 7s now. I feel the least confident in this game on the night because neither bullpen is even remotely good and the game could easily be lost in the late innings.

Yesterday: 0-1

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

It’s been an amazing two-plus weeks. A second consecutive 3-0 night on Tuesday makes for 13 winning nights in the last 14.

Here are the bets for Wednesday, May 4.

Mariners-Astros Under 8 (-115)
The rare 8 these days. The Mariners can’t score. They were shut out in the first two games of this series and now they are facing Justin Verlander. The Mariners’ ceiling for runs in this game is two or three, and even that seems high. The problem is Mariners’ starter Matt Brash isn’t any good. He has walked 10 in his last two starts and six of those came in a start against the Astros. The Astros could cover this number on their own, which is scary, but the odds of that are small.

Yankees -115 over Blue Jays
Two days ago, I would have signed up for the Yankees winning one game in Toronto. I just didn’t want them to get swept. Now it looks like they will sweep the Blue Jays, sweep their fourth straight series and extend their winning streak to 12 straight.

Nestor Cortes shut out the Blue Jays for 4 1/3 innings in April, and while that doesn’t seem like much, with this Yankees bullpen, 4 1/3 scoreless is more than enough because once they come in, it’s zeros for the rest of the game.

Yusei Kikuchi’s numbers against the Yankees read like a joke. In 83 combined plate appearances, the Yankees are hitting .356/.434/.644. Yes, a 1.078 team OPS. DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Anthony Rizzo, Tim Locastro, Aaron Judge, Jose Trevino, Joey Gallo and Marwin Gonzalez all have an OPS of at least 1.000 against Kikuchi.

The money line has gotten worse since I took it on Tuesday night, but I would take this money line at any number.

Angels-Red Sox Under 9 (-115)
Garrett Whitlock is starting for the Red Sox. In two opens/starts/whatevers, he hasn’t allowed a run. I’m glad the Yankees protected Nick Nelson and Brooks Kriske on their 40-man so Whitlock could end up with the Red Sox. Not only is Whitlock likely to shut down the Angels for a few innings, the Red Sox’ offense is abysmal.

Reid Detmers is a young lefty, and you never want to trust any lefty at Fenway Park, let alone one as inexperienced and with as shaky stats as Detmers, but like the Astros game, I think Whitlock is enough to back this under.

Yesterday: 3-0

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

A new winning streak has officially started. After the eight-day winning streak ended on Friday, back-to-back winning days on Saturday (4-0) and Sunday (2-1) have started a new streak. And with that nice three-team parlay hitting at +209 on Sunday, it was really an even better than 2-1 day.

Here are the bets for Monday, May 2.

Yankees-Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-115)
Finding an 8.5 these days is like finding a four-leaf clover. Finding a 9 or more is like winning the lottery. This line opened at 8 and has since moved to 8.5. I was tempted to take it at 8, so of course I took it at 8.5. I don’t have a great deal of confidence in this pick. A year ago this game would have been a 9.5, but in 2022 where two average starting pitchers going against each other are getting a 7, an 8.5 will have to do.

Ross Stripling isn’t very good. The only positive here is that he’s a righty and the Yankees’ best hitters are all right-handed. Aside from Anthony Rizzo, the only other left-handed bats he will see will be Joey Gallo (if he returns to the lineup following his groin injury) and Aaron Hicks.

Jordan Montgomery against a heavy right-handed lineup is fearful. Considering the first three batters he will face will be George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr., this pick could be in peril before the end of the first. Every first inning is important when betting unders, but this one will be even more so since Montgomery will be trying to produce soft contact against those three rather than blow them away and any missed location could end this game from an under standpoint as quickly as it starts.

Astros -135 over Mariners
Jake Odorizzi vs. Marco Gonzales. This same pitching matchup happened back on April 15, and Odorizzi got lit up, while Gonzalez allowed one run over seven innings.

The Astros have extremely good numbers against Gonzales. Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker each have an OPS of least .800 against him. The Mariners’ careers numbers aren’t nearly as good against Odorizzi.

Gonzales was hit on his wrist by a 109 mph line drive in his last start, which forced him out in the first inning. He was hit on his pitching wrist, and while he has been cleared to make the start, I would be surprised if we get the same result from the last time he faced the Astros two-plus weeks ago.

Yesterday: 2-1

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Back in the win column. After the eight-day winning streak was broken on Friday, Saturday was a perfect 4-0 day.

Here are the bets for Sunday, May 1.

Yankees-Royals Under 8.5 (-120)
The books continue to drop the unders. Saturday was another magical performance for unders (11-4) and it seems like the books have had enough. The 8.5s are on the brink of extinction, and even 8s are becoming endangered species. For instance, Max Scherzer and Zach Eflin on Sunday Night Baseball is a 6.5 That’s the kind of line you would have seen for Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner a decade ago. Now we’re getting it for a Hall of Famer against Eflin? In order to continue to find value with unders, the overs are going to have to start hitting. I just pray it’s not on games in which I have money on the under.

The Yankees scored 12 run against the Royals on Friday and three on Sunday. On Sunday, they will face a lefty in Daniel Lynch, so that means a right-handed heavy lineup for the Yankees with Anthony Rizzo likely being the only lefty in it (if Aaron Boone doesn’t inexplicably give him the day off). It’s the kind of matchup in which the Yankees could cover this number on their own. But the Yankees have won eight straight, and 10 of 11, and they are heading out of town for a crucial three-game series in Toronto beginning on Monday. I don’t want to say the Yankees will look past the Royals on Sunday and we’ll get a two-and-a-half-hour game with a lot of quick at-bats, but I have seen that type of performance from the Yankees in similar circumstances in the past.

Luis Severino has been very good this season, while the Royals’ offense is last in runs scored in all of baseball. Rizzo has two fewer home runs than the entire Royals team. This is the only under I trust on Sunday.

Angels -110 over White Sox
Dallas Keuchel is starting against the Angels. If this were five, six or seven years ago, that would have meant something and it would have meant: don’t bet on the Angels. But 2022 Keuchel is bordering on being the left-handed version of 2017 Jered Weaver who was an automatic wager against every time he took the mound. Couple Keuchel with the White Sox’ horrible offense and this line is too good not to take even if I don’t believe in the Angels and their hot start.

Yankees -195 over Royals
Cardinals -200 over Diamondbacks
Dodgers -275 over Tigers
(+209)
The Yankees are too hot to not bet on right now, though at -195 it’s hard to take them on their own. I refuse to take 1.5 lines, so it forces me to pair them with another team. Because it’s the end of what has been a big week I’m pairing them with two teams: the Cardinals and Dodgers.

The Cardinals have lost the first two games of their three-game home series against the Diamondbacks, scoring two runs on Friday and getting shut out on Saturday. Nolan Arenado will be back from his suspension on Sunday, the Cardinals’ offense is due and their past success against Zach Davies is hard to pass up.

The Dodgers were shut down on Saturday, losing 5-1 to the Tigers. Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger combined to go 0-for-17 with three walks. On Sunday, the Dodgers have Walker Buehler going against Eduardo Rodriguez. While I hate betting against Rodriguez from past history against the Yankees, like the Cardinals, the Dodgers are due, especially righties in Mookie Betts (.730 OPS), Trea Turner (.724 OPS) and Justin Turner (.526 OPS), and a matchup against a second straight lefty is just what they need.

Yesterday: 4-0

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

The winning streak has come to an end. After eight straight days of finishing ahead, Friday’s 0-1-1 performance. Today is a new day with full 15-game slate and a chance to start a new winning streak.

Here are the bets for Saturday, April 30.

Astros-Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-110)
The 2022 Astros aren’t the Astros of old. They can’t score. With Jose Altuve injured, George Springer a Blue Jay and Carlos Correa a Twin, the Astros don’t coast the fearful lineup they once did. The bottom third of their order is weak and the middle of their lineup hasn’t hit. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup against Jose Berrios. Add in Luis Garcia and his strong season to date, and what you have is another low-scoring game between two teams who have struggled to consistently generate offense.

Reds-Rockies Under 11 (-110)
An 11! In recent years, an 11 at Coors Field would have been low. In 2022 though, with books dropping the totals as much as they can, 11 feels like 15. Chad Kuhl has been really good this season, and despite me having zero confidence in Connor Overton containing the Rockies, how can you not take an 11? The combination of Kuhl and the an awful Reds offense is enough to feel good about what would have been too low of a total to take a year ago.

Yankees -195 over Royals
Giants -235 over Nationals
(+115)
The Yankees continue to win and their near -200 line every night means they need a parlay partner. Today it’s the Giants. The Giants’ 14-4 to the Nationals on Friday night is what ended the winning streak (had them paired with the Yankees last night as well). But with Logan Webb starting and the Nationals due for an offensive regression following a 14-run performance with a two-man lineup, the Giants are a must today.

Yesterday 0-1-1