After a near-perfect day on Opening Day (4-0 on money line bets, 1-0 on an under with the only loss being the three-team parlay), there’s only bet for today in what is a disappointing five-game slate.
Here are the bets for Friday, March 31.
White Sox-Astros Under 8 (-115) It’s going to be hard to not take every White Sox under this season against a right-handed starter, and tonight they will face arguably the best starter in baseball in Christian Javier. As a Yankees fan, I’m very familiar with Javier, who started the combined no-hitter against the Yankees last June and then shut them down in Game 3 of the ALCS.
Lance Lynn is going for the White Sox, and while he doesn’t have great numbers against the Astros, as a control specialist, I trust him to now allow more than a few runs by avoiding walks. I’m expecting an outstanding start from Javier, so as long as Lynn doesn’t get absolutely rocked, I feel confident.
Yankees -175 over Giants Normally, I would be hesitant about this. More than hesitant. I probably just wouldn’t do it. Gerrit Cole on Opening Day as a Yankee hasn’t been good. Logan Webb, who dominates right-handed hitters (of which nearly the entire Yankees lineup is) and doesn’t allow home runs (the way the Yankees plan on winning) is a really bad matchup for this Yankees team. But again, it’s Opening Day, and I’m not not going to bet the Yankees on Opening Day.
What makes me feel a little better about backing Cole and going against Webb in a perfect spot for Webb is that the Giants suck. Wilmer Flores bats third for the Giants and Joc Pederson fourth. Thairo Estrada bats sixth! (I guess I shouldn’t be shitting on other lineups with the Yankees having Josh Donaldson fifth.) It’s not a good team, and this is a lineup Cole should overpower. But again it’s Cole, and I wouldn’t trust him to tell me what the day of the week it is, let alone go out and shut down a bad team when it’s going to “feel like” 34 degrees at first pitch on Thursday. If it weren’t Opening Day, I would be passing. But it is Opening Day, so here’s to starting off the season with a decision that I won’t be able to second-guess because I’m first-guessing it.
Braves -255 over Nationals Angels -210 over Athletics Padres -215 over Rockies (+201) Are parlays smart? Of course not! Is it Opening Day? Yes, it is! Like the Yankees at -175, I wouldn’t normally advise for a three-team parlay, but again, it’s Opening Day, and the Nationals and Athletics are the two worst teams in baseball and the Padres are going to be really, really good.
The scariest part of this parlay is the last scheduled game with the Padres and the Rockies. I don’t trust Blake Snell, and German Marquez is always capable of dominant performance. I will take my chances that the Padres at home coupled with Marquez’s career being defined by him not being able to put it together consistently will bring this one home. (And if the parlay does come down to the Padres-Rockies game, I will hedge or live bet my way out to some profit.)
Rangers -135 over Phillies I don’t know when the last time Jacob deGrom was only -135 in a game, and I don’t know the next time he will be, if ever. The Phillies as a team have hit .192/.262/.269 against deGrom in 214 plate appearances, and the best two hitters have been Bryce Harper (.930 OPS) and and Rhys Hoskins (.637 OPS), and neither of them will be playing on Thursday.
Mets -130 over Marlins This is a coin flip with Max Scherzer going against Sandy Alcantara, but this is more about me picking for the Mets offense and against the Marlins offense, not me thinking Scherzer is better than Alcantara. I don’t even like the Mets offense (I would have liked it a whole lot more with Carlos Correa), but I like it enough that a game started by Scherzer at -130 against a really bad offense makes it worth it.
Blue Jays -120 over Cardinals Miles Mikolas being the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter isn’t a great look for the Cardinals. (Luckily for them, they play in the NL Central.) Unluckily for them, they are playing the Blue Jays on Opening Day and someone like Mikolas who doesn’t miss many bats and relies on the ball being hit at defenders will be in one against this Blue Jays offense. While Alek Manoah might not have been as good as his numbers suggest he was last year, I have seen him shut down the Yankees down enough to know what he’s capable of. There won’t be many days this season the Blue Jays are -120.
White Sox-Astros Under 7.5 (-105) It’s going to be hard to not like the under in every White Sox game this season like last season. They suck. Dylan Cease is good, but their offense sucks. And if they are a right-handed heavy lineup that can destroy left-handed pitching, Framber Valdez isn’t just any left-handed pitcher, he’s the best in baseball. The absence of Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley and a very weak 6 through 9 for the Astros makes this line incredibly appealing.
The All-Star break means the announcement of this season’s All-Animosity Team.
The All-Star break is here, which means the season is “half” over. For the Yankees, it’s actually 57 percent over with 70 games left.
Another All-Star break means another All-Animosity Team. I’ll always remember the teams which featured David Wright, Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, Chone Figgins, Kevin Youkilis, Robert Andino, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Matt Wieters, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton (when he went by B.J.), Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jose Bautista, Magglio Ordonez and many others. But I also like having a new generation of players to have animosity for.
The standards to be considered for the team are simple and only one of the following three requirements needs to be met:
1. The player crushes the Yankees.
2. The player plays for the Red Sox or Mets.
3. I don’t like the person. (When I say, “I don’t like the person” or if I say, “I hate someone” I mean I don’t like the person who wears a uniform and plays or manages for a Major League Baseball team and not the actual person away from the game. I’m sure some of the people on this list are nice people. I’m glad we got that out of the way since I can already see Player X’s fan base in an uproar about me hating someone who does so much for the community.)
Here is the 2022 All-Animosity Team.
C: Christian Vazquez Christian Vazquez is back on the team after being left off in 2021. This spot belonged to Danny Jansen last season, but this season he has only played in 23 games overall and none against the Yankees, so it goes to the Red Sox’ backstop.
Vazquez isn’t good at hitting a baseball. For a catcher, he’s OK, but in the overall picture of major-league hitters, he isn’t good. That hasn’t stopped him from hitting nine career regular-season home runs against the Yankees, more than than he has hit against any other team, accounting for 17 percent of his 52 career home runs. Let’s not forget his other home run against the Yankees, a postseason solo shot in Game 4 of the 2018 ALDS that ended up being the winning run in the Yankees’ elimination.
I shouldn’t be scared of Vazquez in the box against Yankees pitching, and I really only am against Yankees’ left-handed pitching, but I am, so he’s behind the plate on this year’s team.
1B: Pete Alonso I will never get over Pete Alonso breaking Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record in a season in which the actual baseball was manufactured so differently that Brett Gardner hit 28 home runs. Alonso never should have hit 53 home runs and never should have broken Judge’s record of 52.
To be honest, I like Alonso. I like his personality, I like how he loves competing in the Home Run Derby, and I like how he won the 2021 Home Run Derby when I had him at +600 to win. I just don’t like that he plays for the Mets, and a Met had to make this team, and there’s surprisingly no room for Francisco Lindor on this roster.
2B: Jose Altuve Jose Altuve used to be my favorite non-Yankees player. That was before October 2019 and the uncovering of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.
After hitting .320/.414/.560 with two home runs, four walks and a stolen base in the Astros’ 2017 ALCS win over the Yankees, Altuve hit .348/.444/1.097 with a double, two home runs, four walks and a stolen base in the Astros’ 2019 ALCS win over the Yankees. He’s also responsible for ending the Yankees’ season with a walk-off, pennant-winning home run in Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS.
I used to enjoy watching Altuve play (when not playing the Yankees) and admired his ability for his stature. Now I watch him hoping he will fail (though he rarely does, and certainly doesn’t against the Yankees). This season it’s been more of the same for Altuve against the Yankees: .278/.435/.722 with two home runs, two doubles and two stolen bases in just five games.
3B: Rafael Devers The moment Rafael Devers hit that two-strike, opposite-field home run off Aroldis Chapman in 2017, I knew I had a problem. I also knew the All-Animosity Team had a third baseman for the next decade. With five home runs in only eight games against the Yankees this season, Devers now has 18 career home runs against the Yankees.
Devers will on this for a long, long time, unless the Red Sox don’t sign him and hits free agency and goes elsewhere. I can only dream that will happen.
SS: Carlos Correa Carlos Correa should be the shortstop for the 2022 Yankees, especially given the short-term, high-salary contract he signed with the Twins made possible by the Yankees freeing up the money for the Twins to sign him by taking on washed-up Josh Donaldson’s $48 million.
That Correa is not a Yankee and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is only adds to Correa’s candidacy for the shortstop position on this team once again. Add in his ridiculous .967 career OPS against the Yankees in the regular season, his .913 OPS against them in the 2017 ALCS and his two home runs in the 2019 ALCS, including his walk-off in Game 2, and Correa is an easy fit to pencil in at short on this team. It’s going to be hard someone to unseat him on this roster.
LF: Enrique Hernandez My wife is a Dodgers fan, so since 2013 I have watched nearly every Dodgers game. So I watched Enrique Hernandez’s entire Dodgers career from 2015-2020. He has never been a good player, and when the Red Sox signed him and made him their leadoff hitter, I did a dance, and I don’t dance.
The combination of Hernandez and Dave Roberts single-handedly gave the Red Sox the 2018 World Series. Hernandez went 2-for-15 in the series and kept hitting at the top of the order thanks to his manager, who also used Ryan Madson in every big spot as if it were 2009 and not 2018. So after helping the Red Sox win a championship as an opponent, he nearly helped them win one as a member of the team in 2021, as he went 20-for-49 in the 2021 playoffs. Thankfully, the captain of this All-Animosity team (Altuve) and his former double play partner (Correa) ended the Red Sox’ season.
Hernandez has missed half this season and when he has played, he’s been horrible. It’s good to see him return to the player he used to be when he has played.
CF: Kevin Kiermaier Kevin Kiermaier is a career .247/.306/.408 hitter, but against the Yankees it seems like he’s Ken Griffey Jr. Thirteen of his 82 career home runs (16 percent) have come against the Yankees, and he always seems to be involved in every Rays rally, drawing game-changing walks, getting big hits and making unbelievable defensive plays.
Normally, I want Yankees pitching to face as many hitters with Kiermaier’s numbers as possible, but not Kiermaier. I’m looking forward to his contract with the Rays ending at the end of this season, and hopefully the team option for 2023 isn’t picked up.
RF: Anthony Santander A first-time All-Animosity player. Sure, Anthony Santander has an unimpressive .188/.239/.423 slash line against the Yankees in 38 career games, but of his 28 hits against them, 10 have been home runs. This season alone, Santander has five home runs in 12 games against the Yankees.
Now that the Orioles are surprisingly alive in the postseason picture (3 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot), the seven remaining games between the two teams will actually be important for the Orioles. They will also be important for the Yankees, who are looking to be the 1-seed in the AL. (They actually might not be looking to be, but I want them and need them to be.) There’s going to be a lot of big moments for Santander in those seven games to continue his home run prowess against the Yankees and further cement his place on this team for next season as well.
DH: Alex Bregman The first thing I used to think about when thinking about Alex Bregman was how hard it is to retire him at the plate. Now when I think of him, I think of him standing there at the Astros’ fan fest after the 2019 season and giving the same rehearsed answer over and over about the team’s sign-stealing scandal with that smirk on his face and the sarcastic laugh he kept giving the media. The easiest of players to root against. Add in his 1.101 OPS against the Yankees in five games this season, and his place on this team is secure.
SP: Nathan Eovaldi Never trust a pitcher who throws triple-digit fastballs and can’t strike anyone out and that’s exactly what Nathan Eovaldi is. The Dodgers gave up on him and then the Marlins gave up on him as a 24-year-old with incredible velocity because he didn’t have an out pitch and didn’t know where the ball was going. So the Yankees gave up Martin Prado and David Phelps because of the glamour of Eovaldi’s fastball, thinking they would be the ones who could fix him. They weren’t.
Eovaldi pitched to a 14-3 record in 2015, so every idiot who relies on wins and losses to determine a pitcher’s success thought he had a great season. It didn’t matter that he received 5.75 runs of support per game or that he routinely struggled to get through five innings and qualify for a win because he needs 20-plus pitches to get through each inning. In 2016, it was more of the same. Eovaldi pitched to a 4.76 ERA over 21 starts and 24 games before being shut down for another Tommy John surgery, ending his time with the Yankees as they let him leave at the end of the season.
When Eovaldi returned to baseball in 2018 and pitched well with the Rays, many Yankees fans started to think about a reunion, having not learned their lesson from the last time Eovaldi was a Yankee. When he was traded to the Red Sox, I laughed with excitement, envisioning him destroying the Red Sox’ chances at winning the division. Instead, he shut out the Yankees in the all-important August series (even if faced a JV lineup) and then shut them out against in September. I never thought he would be able to beat the Yankees in October in the Bronx, but he did, after getting more run support than any other pitcher against the Yankees in the team’s history.
Eovaldi beat the Yankees and the Astros in the playoffs, mixed in a few relief appearances and then became a hero for his bullpen work in Game 3 of the World Series, even though he took the loss after giving up a walk-off home run. (Only in Boston could a losing pitcher become a “hero.”) Now Eovaldi is a World Series champion, and I will never get over it.
RP: Garrett Whitlock This team is heavy on Red Sox and Astros, so what’s one more? Another new All-Animosity Team member.
The only thing I don’t like about Garrett Whitlock is that he pitches for the Red Sox. I don’t dislike him as a pitcher. It’s not his fault the Yankees chose to not protect him prior to last season and chose to protect Nick Nelson and Brooks Kriske, gifting the Red Sox the best pitcher on their staff. Meanwhile, Nelson and Kriske are no longer Yankees (Nelson is on the Phillies and Kriske is in Japan) after putting a combined 94 baserunners on in 46 1/3 innings as Yankees.
Here is Whitlock’s career line against the Yankees: 14 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 20 K, 1 HR, 1.93 ERA, 0.643 WHIP.
With his recent four-year extensions and options for 2027 and 2028, Whitlock will have a place on this team for the foreseeable future.
With a second child being born and now having two under 21 months, the last couple of months have been a gongshow. The betting hasn’t slowed, but the MLB Bets blogs have. There’s still half a season to be played and wagered on and then the postseason, so time to get back to the blog.
Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.
Yankees -154 over Red Sox Just one play for Friday night.
If the Yankees don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat them, the Red Sox can’t beat them. The Red Sox are so beat up and banged up from a pitching perspective that what was a mediocre staff to begin the season is now an atrocious staff.
We saw that with Josh Winckowski getting lit up by the Yankees (and Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks of all hitters) on Thursday. On Friday, the Red Sox will follow up Winckowski with Connor Seabold who has pitched 8 2/3 innings this season and has allowed 18 baserunners and three home runs.
Yes, the Yankees could lose, and yes, no Yankees-Red Sox game in any season between the two teams can be considered a sure-thing for either team. But Seabold is as bad a starter as the Yankees will see this season. They don’t need Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo back in the lineup to beat him and the Red Sox again. But if they are both back on Friday, this line won’t be available at -154.
After an 0-3 Wednesday (that was nearly a 3-0 day) and a seven-run ninth on Thursday to lose the only pick that day, Friday was a winning 3-1 night. The first two-day losing streak of the season is over. It’s time to build on Friday’s success as I sit inside during this three-day storm, while the Yankees keep getting postponed.
Here are the bets for Saturday, May 7.
Pirates-Reds Game 1 Under 9 (-120) This game was scheduled for Friday before one third of the league was postponed. I’m taking it at again. Neither team can hit. Unfortunately, neither team can pitch as well. But a 9 is like a 12 these days, and it can’t be passed up.
(The second game of the doubleheader is also a 9. The pitching matchup is weaker than this game, so I may take it after this game depending on the final score of this one and the lineups for Game 2.)
Rockies-Diamondbacks Under 9 (-120) The first game of this series went under 8.5 last night for a win (Diamondbacks won 4-1), so I’m going back to it today. Kyle Freeland and Zach Davies are far from being Chad Kuhl and Merrill Kelly this season, but again even a decent 9 is worth taking in 2022.
Nationals-Angels Under 9 (-120) These two went under their 9 night last (Angels won 3-0) and the pitching matchup is better today. The Nationals can’t score and the top of the Angels lineup can only bat so many times.
