Blogs – Page 208 – Keefe To The City

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

Blogs • Giants

Jan 2, 2014

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

The regular season is over and that means the Giants’ season is over, but it also means the postseason is here and so are the postseason picks.

While this past Monday served as Black Monday for many head coaches around the league, it held a different meaning for New York Football Giants fans like myself. This past Monday was a reminder that the Giants won’t be playing this weekend (even if didn’t matter if they were playing for the last five weekends) and they won’t be playing again until next September. If you were to get pregnant or get someone pregnant today, there’s a chance your baby would be born (a little premature) by the time the Giants play their next real game. The Monday following Week 17 has now meant nothing for the Giants in four of the last five seasons.

The only news to come from the Giants since their season ended with a win over the Redskins (a game that was played in such miserable weather conditions that any fan who attended the game needs to seriously reevaluate their life and priorities and think about doing something constructive on Sundays rather than watching a 6-9 team face a 3-12 team in a monsoon) is that Eli Manning will likely get an extension despite his historically bad season. (If only all jobs could be handled this way.) For the Giants and their fans, January will once again be a depressing month with no non-monetary-related rooting interest in the playoffs. The only positive to come out of the worst Giants season in a decade is the reported retirement of offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. Aside from that, there’s no point in looking back at the disastrous season that started 0-6, but could have been saved in Week 12 against the Cowboys.

The holidays are over and it’s January, which begins the two-month winter gauntlet (though this year is a little less gauntlet-ish thanks to Winter Olympics hockey) before spring training and March Madness carry us into Opening Day. And what better way to kick January off than with a New York City blizzard that’s supposed to start on Thursday night? How about a high temperature on Friday of 17 degrees and a low of 4 degrees? Yes, it’s officially winter and that means the NFL postseason is here and so are the NFL Playoff Picks.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Kansas City
Let me start this by saying that the first thing I did when the lines came out for Wild-Card Weekend was to see what a parlay with the four underdogs (Chiefs, Saints, Chargers and Packers) is worth and it’s 29-to-1 odds. Unfortunately, I’m only a believer in one of the four underdogs this weekend.

The Chiefs have had an odd calendar year, considering they finished 2-14 in 2012, which was good enough for worst in the NFL and landed them the No. 1 pick. Then they hired Andy Reid, traded for Alex Smith, started the season 9-0 and finished the season 11-5. When it comes to looking at the 2013 Chiefs, they were essentially two teams: the Pre-Bye Chiefs and Post-Bye Chiefs.

The Pre-Bye Chiefs were 9-0 and never allowed more than 17 points in game and allowed a total of 111 points (an average of 12.3 per game). The Post-Bye Chiefs were 2-5, only beating the Redskins and Raiders, and allowed 194 points (an average of 27.7 per game). The Chiefs’ pre-bye success was presumably built by their defense, but in reality, it was built by their schedule that included home games against the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders, Texans and Browns and road games against the Jaguars, Michael Vick Eagles, Titans and Bills. The Chiefs went 1-5 against playoff teams this season and their only win came in Week 3 against the Michael Vick Eagles in a game in which the Eagles had five turnovers.

When these two teams meet on Saturday, it will only have been 13 days since the Colts ran the Chiefs out of Arrowhead with a 23-7 win thanks to four Chiefs turnovers. But it’s not only because of this recent result or how shaky the Post-Bye Chiefs have been that I’m taking the Colts here. It’s also because of how Andy Reid chose to play Week 17 against the Chargers.

Sure, the JV Chiefs nearly beat the This-Game-Means-Everything Chargers in San Diego, but Reid did that game, the game of football as a whole, the playoff picture and his own team a disservice by playing the “B” team and not trying to do everything he could to win the game and eliminate the Chargers. The Chiefs earned the right to play (or not play) their Week 17 game however they chose, but history tells us that using Week 17 as a bye week and taking your foot off the gas entering January usually backfires.

New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 16 Picks:

If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 15 Picks:

Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 14 Picks:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 13 Picks:

It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 12 Picks:

It’s never a good idea to trust the Saints to cover outside of the Superdome.

I could keep going, but I think the pattern is pretty easy to pick up. The Superdome Saints were 8-0 this year with an average win of 34.0-15.6. The Outside-the-Superdome Saints were 3-5 with an average loss of 22.4-17.8.

Absolutely everything about this game says, “Don’t pick the Saints, Neil! Don’t pick the effing Saints, Neil!” in the same voice that Eli uses to yell his feelings to Matthew about sleeping with Danielle in The Girl Next Door. But guess what: I’m not listening to stats and logic and everything I have written about the Saints in 2013 and I’m not listening to Eli.

There are two teams I desperately don’t want to see win the Super Bowl: the Patriots and Eagles. And since I’m driving the anti-Eagles bandwagon, I’m going to let my fandom interfere with math and science and the Saints’ recent postseason history and pick solely against the Eagles because they’re the Eagles.

CINCINNATI -7 over San Diego
The worst game of Wild-Card Weekend features the team that has screwed with me more this year than any other team: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cincinnati Bengals! Like the Saints, the Bengals can be viewed as two teams: the Cincinnati Bengals and the Outside Cincinnati Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals went 8-0 this year with an average win of 31.9-16.8. The Outside Cincinnati Bengals went 3-5 with an average loss of 21.4-19.4. At home, the Bengals beat three playoff teams in the Packers, Patriots and Colts. On the road, they lost to the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, Ravens and Steelers and needed overtime to beat the Bills. (As you can tell, none of those teams are still playing.) But what the Outside Cincinnati Bengals did doesn’t matter this week and won’t come into play until next weekend when they will either travel to Denver or New England. And the Bengals will still be playing next weekend because they get to face the We-Are-Kind-Of-Hot-Entering-The-Playoffs-But-Also-Backed-Into-The-Playoffs Chargers.

Yes, the Chargers won four straight and five of six to finish the season, but they also needed Ryan Succop to miss a 41-yard field goal to beat the Chiefs’ JV team in a home game with their season on the line. If not for that missed field goal with four seconds left, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be in the playoffs, and the Chargers’ season would have ended at the hands of quarterback Chase Daniel, who entered the Week 17 game with eight career passing attempts. The Chargers lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals just five weeks ago in Week 13. And when you’re losing to the Outside Cincinnati Bengals, things aren’t going to be easier against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals’ last playoff win came during the 1990 season on Jan. 6, 1991. This Sunday, one day shy of 23 years, the drought will be over.

San Francisco -3 over GREEN BAY
The forecast calls for a high of 0 degrees and a low of -18 degrees on Sunday in Green Bay. Knowing that, I think Tom Coughlin might be content with the way the Giants’ season ended since they won’t be playing in Lambeau Field this January, which is probably for the best given his skin’s reaction to the Wisconsin winter in January 2008 and January 2012.

It’s been a while since the Aaron Rodgers Packers were home underdogs and when the two teams met let year in the divisional round in San Francisco, the 49ers were only 3-point favorites at home.

The Packers were 5-2 before Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and during his absence they needed two one-point wins (Week 14 over Atlanta and Week 15 over Dallas) to be put in a winner-take-all Week 17 game in Chicago. And in that game last week, the Packers had a fourth-and-8 for their season on the Bears’ 48-yard line in the final minutes that resulted in a 48-yard touchdown pass from first-game-back Aaron Rodgers to first-game-back Randall Cobb. What I’m trying to say is the Packers hit an in the words of Ilya Bryzgalov “humongous big” parlay to reach the playoffs and possibly even more “humongous big” than the parlay they hit in 2010 to reach the playoffs (thanks in large part to the “Miracle at the Meadowlands”) before winning the Super Bowl. And thanks to the NFL’s imperfect playoff format, at 8-7-1, they get to host a 12-4 team.

The 49ers’ four losses this season all came against worthy opponents. They lost in Seattle, where every team not from Arizona loses. They lost to the Colts, who I called the weirdest team in the NFL since they knocked off not only the 49ers, but also the Seahawks and Broncos this season, while losing to the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams. Following their bye, they lost to a top-ranked Panthers defense by one point (10-9). And they lost 23-20 to the Saints in New Orleans, which included a very controversial penalty, and since you know my feelings on the Superdome Saints, any loss under seven points in New Orleans is basically a win for the road team.

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Last week: 10-6-0
Regular Season: 114-132-9

Blogs • Giants

Dec 26, 2013

NFL Week 17 Picks

It seems like it was just Week 1, but now it’s time to say goodbye to the 2013 regular season and get ready for the postseason.

It feels like just yesterday I was writing “Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22” to start my Week 1 Picks column, the summer was coming to a close and there was still hope the New York Football Giants would be playing a home game for Super Bowl XLVIII. Now here we are with Christmas over and Week 17 and 2014 upon us. (Excuse me while I grab some tissues.)

There are just 27 games left to pick this season and after last week’s 3-13 disaster, a .500-or-better season has become the pipe dream I said it would be back in Week 13. I entered Week 16 needing to finish 28-15 to finish over .500 season, but that huge setback gives me a 104-126-9 record and means I will have to finish at least 25-2 to finish over .500. So if I am to finish over .500, it means I will endure an historical run ever and if you’re actually putting money on the picks, you will win a silly amount of money between now and the Super Bowl. (Or I will continue to crawl through this mediocre season.) I have said over and over how my picks season has mirrored this Giants season and with the Giants just playing to save face and salvage a win once again this week, it looks like I will be doing the same in Week 17.

This week 13 of the 16 games have playoff implications as of now. I say as of now because by 4:00 on Sunday there will be some late afternoon games that mean as much as Giants-Redskins or Vikings-Lions or Titans-Texans do. Right now, there isn’t one playoff team that has locked up their seed. The problem with those 13 playoff implication games is that in eight of them, one of the teams has absolutely nothing at stake. And with 60 minutes of football separating those eight teams from their playoff-less season and the offseason and putting the lost year behind them, it’s hard to gauge what type of effort you might get in those games. One game stands between 14 of the league’s 32 teams and eight months until their next game.

Carolina -6.5 over ATLANTA
The Panthers are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and Jake Delhomme’s five-pick game when the Panthers were 10-point favorites against the Cardinals. But the Panthers will have to win this Sunday to win the NFC South and get a bye because the Saints are home against the Buccaneers and that’s a guaranteed win for the Saints, and if the Saints are to win and the Panthers lose then the Saints win the South and get the bye.

TENNESSEE -7 over Houston
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(Actually this isn’t the only one. There are two more.)

PITTSBURGH -7 over Cleveland
The Steelers are in if they win and the Ravens, Dolphins and Chargers lose. It seems unlikely and insane, but if you go back to 2006, here’s were the two scenarios the Giants needed to happen to reach the playoffs:

1. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + Seattle win or tie.

2. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + San Francisco loss or tie.

The Giants lost 30-7 to the Saints, but the Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks and 49ers all lost too, and the Giants basically hit the biggest parlay ever.

I don’t like the Steelers and I never thought I would want them to succeed, but I’m pulling for them to pull this off.

NEW YORK -3.5 over Washington
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants or Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(It’s the second of these games.)

There will be plenty of Giants’ non-postseason postseason stuff coming on Monday.

Baltimore +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Ravens have two ways to get into the playoffs: 1.) Win and have the Dolphins or Chargers lose or 2.) Have the Dolphins, Chargers and Steelers lose. Eleven of the Ravens’ 15 games have been decided by eight points or less, so while I don’t think they will win in Cincinnati, it will likely be a close game.

INDIANAPOLIS -11 over Jacksonville
The 2013 season has been a tale of two seasons for the Jaguars: the pre-bye Jaguars and the post-bye Jaguars. From Weeks 1-8, the Jaguars were 0-8 and lost by 26, 10, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32 points. But then came their bye and since their bye, they are 4-3. Unfortunately, this week we will see a glimpse of the 0-8 Jaguars with the Colts still playing for a first-round bye even if they won’t get it.

MIAMI -5.5 over New York Jets
This could be Rex Ryan’s last game as head coach of the Jets. I don’t think this should be the end for Rex with the Jets when you consider the team is at worst going to finish 7-9 and could be 8-8 in a year in which their quarterback was Geno Smith and their best receiver was Jeremy Kerley. They had wins over the Patriots and Saints and won in Atlanta back in Week 5 when people thought being the 2012 NFC 1-seed on the road was still a big deal. If Rex deserved to be fired, he deserved to be fired after the 2011 or 2012 season, but Woody Johnson let him hang around for 2013 and he has earned at least another year. But the Jets get things right as often as the Mets do and I fully expect Rex to be fired.

MINNESOTA -3 over Detroit
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Vikings or Lions fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(And out third completely meaningless game of the week.)

Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO
What if the Dodgers lost Clayton Kershaw for the final months of the season and stumbled to the finish line, but were lucky enough to have the Giants also stumble down the stretch to have Game 162 be winner-take-all for the NL West and now Kershaw is available and set to start against the Giants? Well, that’s what we have for Bears-Packers with the best quarterback in the league returning for the last game of the season with a chance to not only put his team into the playoffs, but end the franchise’s rival’s season. The Bears had their chance to take care of business in Philadelphia last week and were run out of the building on Sunday Night Football and that loss will cost them their season. Goodnight, Chicago. Last one out of Soldier Field, turn off the lights.

NEW ENGLAND -9 over Buffalo
The Ravens couldn’t deliver for me last week against the Patriots and the Dolphins were shut out by the Bills, so my dream of having the Patriots’ division title being at stake in Week 17 was destroyed. The Patriots have won the AFC East again and will beat the Bills and earn the 2-seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs and end up playing one challenging playoff game in three weeks in Denver for a trip to the Super Bowl. I wish the Giants could play in the AFC East.

NEW ORLEANS -13 over Tampa Bay
Let’s simplify picking and gambling. Whenever you pick a favorite, you need two things to happen: 1.) You need the team to win and 2.) You need the team to cover by a certain amount of points. We know the the Saints are going to win this game. That’s not opinion, that’s fact. So No. 1 is taken care of. That leaves No. 2, which won’t be easy, but when you know the Saints are already going to win, how can you not pick them to cover? I would rather need the Saints to blow out the Buccaneers than need the Buccaneers to keep a game close in the Superdome with the offseason in sight.

Denver -13 over OAKLAND
The last time Peyton Manning took over the single-season touchdown record with 49 in 2004, Tom Brady broke it three years later with 50. Manning has the record again with 51 after throwing four touchdowns against the Texans last week and I would think that he wants to put it out of reach of getting broken soon or ever again. With the Patriots playing the Bills and going to beat the Bills, the Broncos will have to win this game to lock up the 1-seed in the AFC, which they have to get if they want to beat the Patriots in the inevitable AFC Championship Game.

ARIZONA 0 over San Francisco
You know there’s a problem with the way sports put so much stock into division titles when the Cardinals could finish the season with 11 wins and not make the playoffs. And even if the Cardinals do beat the 49ers, they aren’t going to make the playoffs because the 10-5 Saints are going to beat the Buccaneers and end the Cardinals’ season. Meanwhile, the NFC East will be won by either a 10-win team or a nine-win team, the NFC North will be won by a nine-win team or an eight-win team, and both the NFC North and South could be won by 10-win teams. There’s no chance the Saints will lose, so I’m rooting for the Cardinals to win this game, finish 11-5 and give talking heads the chance to talk about changing the NFL playoff format (which is usually fine) for at least a week.

Kansas City +9 over SAN DIEGO
The only way the Chargers can get in is if the Ravens lose to the Bengals and the Dolphins lose to the Jets and then they beat the Chiefs. But by the time this game kicks off, the Chargers will know if they have anything to play for and I don’t think they will because I think the Dolphins beat the Jets.

SEATTLE -11.5 over St. Louis
Everyone has talked about whether or not any team can beat the Seahawks in Seattle and the Cardinals proved that teams can. The Seahawks are going to get their division title and 1-seed by beating the Rams, but that Week 16 loss to the Cardinals seems to have changed the minds of a lot of people who though the Seahawks would walk through their two playoff games to MetLife.

DALLAS +7 over Philadelphia
This isn’t as bad as if the Red Sox and Mets were to meet in the World Series, but it’s in the next tier below that. One team has to win (yes, I do realize they could tie) and one team has to win the NFC East and one team has to go to the playoffs. I have mulled over this decision for the last few weeks when it looked like this matchup and scenario would take place and I couldn’t figure out who to root or, but the Tony Romo situation has made it easy for me to pick for the Cowboys. With Romo undergoing back surgery and out for the season, if the Cowboys can win this game with Kyle Orton and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and just the fifth time since 1999 and possibly win a playoff game then what kind of offseason Cowboys quarterback/future debate/circus are we looking at? An epic one.

Last week: 3-13-0
Season: 104-126-9

Blogs

Dec 24, 2013

My Christmas Wish List

I won’t be getting playoff football this year, so that means I will have to ask for some other things this Christmas.

When I put together my Christmas list for this year, I didn’t bother to ask for anything to do with the New York Football Giants. At 6-9, their season has been lost since their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys and this season marks the fourth time in five years the Giants won’t play in the postseason.

After reaching the playoffs in each of the first four years of Eli Manning’s career as the full-time starting quarterback (2005-08), the Giants’ lone playoff trip since their loss in the 2008 divisional round as the No. 1 seed was in 2011 when they won the Super Bowl. I’m very grateful for the two Super Bowls since 2007 and that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin prevented Tom Brady and Bill Belichick from being 5-0 in the Super Bowl and football immortality as the best quarterback-coach combination in history. But at this time of the year with the Cowboys and Eagles playing for the NFC East title and the Bears, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all playing for something this Sunday, it’s not fun being on the outside looking in.

Yes, it’s another Week 17 of wondering what could have been, but I’m not going to let the Giants ruin Christmas since they already ruined October and November (the Yankees ruined September). And if I can’t have playoff football this year, which I can’t, then this is what I want.

Something That Resembles A Starting Rotation That Can Compete In the AL East
If it seems like I have asked for that before, it’s because I have. Back in 2010, I asked for the same exact thing after the Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee and I was staring at a potential rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and at the time no one else. (That’s right, Phil Hughes, coming off an 18-win season, was going to be the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.) Thankfully Bartolo Colon decided to get some “help” and Freddy Garcia reinvented himself and the Yankees won 97 games and the AL East before the heart of the order went missing in a five-game series loss to the Tigers in the ALDS.

So far this offseason the Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Brian Roberts and lost Robinson Cano to the Mariners. The November 2013 Yankees are better than the September 2013 Yankees were and are better in theory than the 2013 Yankees were ever going to be at their healthiest point. But the rotation is still a problem just like it was at this time last year and the year before that.

The best free-agent options for the rotation are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm and …. wait for it …. wait for it …. wait for it … A.J. Burnett! The only one of these six options I would be OK with would be Garza, but even then he’s going to command (and receive) a ridiculous contract in this market for someone who has a career .500 record (67-67), a 3.84 ERA and has started only 42 games over the last two years.

Brian Cashman said going into this winter that he was going to have to find 400 innings from somewhere and I don’t think the Yankees are going to sign one of the “top” free agents just because they are the best available right now like they would have in the past with Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright or Burnett. That means that “somewhere” will likely be from within the organization and some combination of the current favorites Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren. Unless, the Yankees can give me the next thing on my list …

Cliff Lee
Yes, three years later I’m still asking for Cliff Lee. I don’t need to explain it. Just read this. But since Lee isn’t exactly realistic, I will ask for someone who is …

Masahiro Tanaka
I know nothing about Masahiro Tanaka other than from searching “Masahiro Tanaka” on YouTube and watching a video titled “Best of Mashahiro Tanaka” that is synced to what sounds like nearly four minutes of an instrumental version of a song by The Offspring. But I’m going to guess that the only knowledge most North American “experts” who talk about how good Tanaka is happens to be this same exact video. No one knows for sure how Tanaka’s Japanese success will translate to the majors and given the history of highly coveted Japanese pitchers coming to North America, there’s a better chance that Tanaka will be more like Daisuke Matsuzaka than Yu Darvish. But as long as he’s not Kei Igawa (I haven’t typed that name in so long), I’ll take him.

2013-14 Henrik Lundqvist To Be 2011-12 Henrik Lundqvist
Since signing his seven-year extension, Henrik Lundqvist is 2-4-2. I’m not sure if you want your franchise player, who you recently locked up through 2020-21 to be saying he “kind of expected” that a rookie backup would be starting in place of him for the second consecutive game and night. And after recording two wins and allowing just two goals combined in 48 hours, I’m not sure that Alain Vigneault is necessarily going to go back to Lundqvist over Cam Talbot on Friday night in Washington.

Lundqvist has admitted to over-anticipating plays and being jumpy and it has shown this season. While it’s hard to fault him for a five-goal loss to the Islanders on Friday night when you consider they were getting shorthanded breakaways and odd-man rushes left and right, he isn’t bailing out the team that way he used to. And because Lundqvist isn’t bailing out his team the way he used to, it brings me to the next thing I’m asking for …

A New Rangers Defense
I asked for this last because this is going to be the most unrealistic of them all. It would be like asking for Xbox One and PlayStation 4 this year.

Since 2008-09, the Rangers’ problem has been scoring goals, but now with Lundvist struggling and having a down year so far, preventing goals is even more of a problem. And if Lundqvist is going to be more human-like than King-like this season, the Rangers aren’t going anywhere because they don’t have the defense (especially with Marc Staal injured) many thought they did. Through the first 46 percent of the season, Lundqvist hasn’t been bailing out the incompetence of the Rangers defense the way he has through his entire career. But rather than focus on his entire career, let’s focus on since 2011-12 when the current Rangers defensive core started to become the foundation of the defense.

We all know that I don’t think the 2011-12 Rangers were worthy of the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed or as close as “two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final” as they technically were. They earned the top seed and won two series in Game 7 before losing the Devils in six because of Henrik Lundqvist. Not because of their offense and certainly not because of their defense. Lundqvist made everyone believe Dan Girardi was an All-Star and that Michael Del Zotto could be trusted in his own zone the same way Sidney Crosby has made everyone believe Chris Kunitz is some kind of superstar despite his career season-high in goals being 26 and now as a linemate of Number 87, he has 20 goals in just 39 games.

Prior to Lundqvist signing an extension, there was a worrying sense that overpaying Lundqvist would cost the Rangers a chance at re-signing Girardi this offseason. But right now I’m not sure anyone would want to sign Girardi. When he’s not falling down or giving the puck away, he’s busy scoring goals against his team, a stat which he must lead the league in by at least 15.

As for Del Zotto, it’s pretty obvious his time with the Rangers is dwindling. When the Rangers beat the Maple Leafs on Monday night at the Garden, I watched Del Zotto intently as the Rangers saluted from center ice and wondered if Del Zotto was thinking it could be one of the last times he would salute the MSG crowd. If it is, the Rangers will be a better team.

Merry Christmas!

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 18, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

The Giants’ season has been over for a month, but the picks season still has 43 games to go.

It’s feel like the NFL season has already ended to me and that’s because the Giants haven’t played a meaningful game sine their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys a month ago. Now I’m stuck looking at an under-.500 picks season, there’s no fantasy football left to be played and the amount of games available to wager on will start to dwindle as teams lock up playoff berth and home-field advantage or mail it in for the last two weeks.

With Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all in the next 13 days, football takes a backseat to the holiday season. But once New Year’s ends, football is back with Wild-Card Weekend and that’s when I lean heavily on football to get through the frigid January weather in the northeast. (Thankfully this year we have the Winter Olympics and therefore Olympic hockey to get through the February weather.)

But before I can even start to think about playoff football, I have to finish strong here in the last two weeks of the regular season with my picks. I’m currently 101-113-9 and 43 games left in the season, including playoffs, I have to finish at least 28-15 to finish over .500 for the season. It’s not going to be easy, but I have a 10-5-1 Week 15 to build off of.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
It’s Week 16 and there is a lot on the line. Out of the 16 games, 13 of them have playoff implications with five divisions and eight playoffs spots still available. One of those games is this one because if the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins will be one game back of the Patriots with one to play. Sure, the Patriots play the Bills next week and will win that game and the Dolphins really don’t have a chance to win the AFC East (this is half the truth and half a reverse jinx attempt), but let me at least believe for a week, Football Gods?

CAROLINA -3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints have put themselves in a bad spot. If the NFC playoffs were to go through New Orleans, the Saints would easily be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. But because of the Saints’ 3-4 road record (they are 7-0 at home) with brutal losses to the Patriots, Jets and Rams, the Saints are now playing for the NFC South title in Carolina. If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Dallas -3 over WASHINGTON
Come on, this one is easy. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will go to D.C. and walk all over the Redskins to make the Week 17 Cowboys-Eagles game in Dallas the NFC East Championship Game. Every year the Cowboys find themselves playing in a win-or-go-home situation in Week 17 and this year will be no different.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Did you know the Rams have more wins (6) than the Giants (5)? Sure, two of those wins came against Jacksonville and Houston, but the Rams did beat Arizona (9-5), Indianapolis (9-5), Chicago (8-6) and New Orleans (10-4). No, the Rams wouldn’t have been a playoff team if Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt considering they play in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, but they are at least on the right track for the future, which is more than you can say about the New York Football Giants.

Cleveland +2 over NEW YORK JETS
You know who else has more wins the Giants? The Jets, that’s who. The Jets, who went weeks without throwing for a touchdown have more wins than a team just 23 months removed from winning the Super Bowl and a little over a year removed from looking like they could win the NFC East and possibly even have a first-round bye. No, things haven’t flipped in the New York football landscape (a terrible landscape to be a part of) and the Giants are still king, but it’s never a good look to finish a season worse than the Jets. Let’s go Browns!

KANSAS CITY -7 over Indianapolis
Here are the points against the Chiefs in their first nine games, which were all wins: 2, 16, 16, 7, 17, 7, 16, 17, 13. And here are the points aginst the Chiegs in their last five games: 27, 41, 35, 10, 31. I’m not sure what has happened to the Chiefs’ defense since their first loss of the season back in Week 11, but when the Raiders are putting up 31 on you at home it’s never good. Knowing that, I would normally shy away from the picking for the Chiefs to cover a touchdown at home, but this is the Colts we’re talking about and no playoff team has the ability to get run out of a building on the road like the Colts.

Minnesota +8 over CINCINNATI
I originally had the Bengals to cover here, but I thought more about it and the Vikings have covered for me so many times this year that I can’t turn my back on them now. (And my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, would probably give me a glare and not talk to me for at least 20 minutes upon finding out I picked against her Vikings.)

Denver -10.5 over HOUSTON
The same week in which reports come out that the Texans passed on Peyton Manning, Peyton returns to Reliant Stadium where he tormented the Texans for years. The last thing you want to do is pick against Peyton in a dome with the single-season touchdown record and the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line. Maybe he will choke in January and the Broncos will lose in the divisional round, but when it comes to the regular season, Peyton Manning knows how to get the job done.

Tennessee -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -11 over Arizona
Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle.

DETROIT -9.5 over New York Giants
I’m not sure what line would make me feel uncomfortable picking against the Giants right now, but 9.5 in Detroit certainly isn’t it. Maybe if this line were -13.5 or higher I would start to think twice about it, but even then, this Giants team has already started thinking about the Monday after Week 17 and a desperate Lions team at home only makes matters worse.

Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
I am always big on the Raiders covering against the Chargers and usually the line is a lot lower than 10. The Chargers have proven to be a December disaster in recent years and now that they have played themselves into an unlikely-but-still-possible position for the playoffs, I’m thinking the Raiders’ money line isn’t a bad decision here either.

GREEN BAY -2 over Pittsburgh
I have a feeling we are going to be looking at the NFC North being decided in Chicago next week between the Bears and Packers. You just know the Packers are going to win and then Aaron Rodgers will be back in Week 17 to face the Bears. That’s just how things happen. It’s what the Football Gods want.

BALTIMORE -2 over New England
It’s very weird to not see the “x” next to New England in the standings entering Week 16 to represent the Patriots’ clinched playoff berth. It’s even weirder not to see the “y” next to the “x” showing that the Patriots have also clinched the AFC East with two weeks left. The Patriots aren’t used to playing meaningful late-December games and now they will have to try and clinch the division on the road against the defending champions, who seem to pull off a different miracle each week.

Chicago +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Unfortunately, next week in Dallas, either the Cowboys or Eagles have to win. And one of those teams has to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. But that’s next week. This week it’s still easy to decide who to root against when it comes to an Eagles game.

SAN FRANCISCO -13 over Atlanta
This game would have been in every 10-point teaser this weekend if it weren’t Monday Night Football. But I can’t imagine a lot of people will want to create a 10-point teaser over two days and instead will end up taking the 49ers -13 by themselves on Monday night. That means this line isn’t going to stay at -13 for long and I am thankful it was there when I wrote this.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 101-113-9