Blogs – Page 186 – Keefe To The City

Oct 9, 2014

The Rangers’ Window of Opportunity

On Thursday night, I had the Bruins-Flyers game on, but muted while I recorded Rangers podcasts and it felt weird to be watching hockey after an offseason that felt like 15 minutes. When I was

On Thursday night, I had the Bruins-Flyers game on, but muted while I recorded Rangers podcasts and it felt weird to be watching hockey after an offseason that felt like 15 minutes. When I was done recording, I turned the sound on the game and Doc Emrick’s voice came into my living room and it was the first time I had heard Doc’s voice since he was screaming back on June 13.

“Centering pass flagged down by Greene … Played into traffic though … Starting back up with it now is Martinez in a 3-on-2 … Clifford gave it across … It’s held … And a shot … Save … Rebound … SCORE! … THE STANLEY CUP! … MARTINEZ!”

Benoit Pouliot’s centering pass was stopped by Matt Greene with 5:27 left in the second overtime. At 5:17, Alec Martinez scored the Stanley Cup-winning goal. In 10 seconds, the play to end the Rangers’ 107-game, eighth-month season transpired in what was essentially a perfect execution of a 3-on-2, ending with a goal as a result of a textbook low shot to the far side, which produced an ideal rebound to the forward going hard to the net. You could classify it as beautiful and I would if it didn’t involve ending the Rangers’ season.

Unless your team wins the last game of the entire NHL season, you are likely let down at the conclusion of their year. When your team loses the last game of the entire season and the lasting image from that moment is your franchise all-world goalie, who has been the most important player in the organization for a decade, lying face down on the ice with Alec Martinez and Kyle Clifford celebrating around him as if they had just bagged a Kodiak bear on a hunting trip, you’re not let down, you’re devastated.

The Rangers never gave me time to prepare for the finality of their season and the end of a Stanley Cup run. Sure, I realized that going into both Games 4 and 5 (and any game for the rest of the series) that there was a chance it would be the last game of the season, but they won Game 4 and led Game 5 in the third period. For the final 30 seconds of the second period and the first 7:56 of the third period of Game 5, my mind wasn’t thinking about watching the Rangers’ season end while I was in Los Angeles surrounded by a city waiting to erupt at my expense. My mind was thinking about one thing only: kill the clock. That changed when Marian Gaborik (who is in the conversation as my favorite Ranger ever) tied the game on the power play because of course Marian Gaborik would tie the game against his former team with his postseason-leading 14^th goal. After that goal, for the next 46:47, my mind was back to thinking about finality, knowing that the next shot or any shot could end the season.

You can only miss so many chances to win a game. You can only hit the post so many times, have the puck deflect off a stick on its way to an open net so many times and choke on a breakaway so many times. And when you don’t capitalize on what feels like countless opportunities to win a game (or in this several games of a series), you eventually lose. History will show that the Kings beat the Rangers 4-1 in the 2013-14 Stanley Cup Final, but it didn’t feel like a five-game series. It felt like a seven-game series, which probably had to do with three of the five games going to overtime, two going to double overtime and the Rangers blowing two-goal leads in Games 1 and 2 and blowing a third-period lead in Game 5.

I was always worried that the Rangers would completely waste Henrik Lundqvist’s prime and career by surrounding him with average talent and only a long list of first- and second-round postseason exits would make up his career résumé because when you’re relying solely on your goalie for entire seasons and postseasons, one or two playoff rounds is all you can realistically expect. But I no longer worry about that after last season’s Cup run. Now I worry about Henrik Lundqvist one night standing on the Madison Square Garden ice watching his Number 30 get raised to the rafters with the 2013-14 Final being his one chance at winning the Cup.

It appears as though the front office is worried about that same thing as they have put an emphasis on building a deep organization with young, promising talent and have avoided making the same salary-cap mistakes (Hello, Ryan Callahan) they were making just three years ago (Hello, Brad Richards). Three years ago, there’s no chance Anthony Duclair makes the Rangers’ opening night roster and some veteran player with experience whose low career ceiling has already been set keeps him off the roster and sends him back to juniors. With Duclair (19), J.T. Miller (21), Jesper Fast (22) and Kevin Hayes (22) on the roster, the Rangers have four players 22 years old or younger, two 23-year-olds in Chris Kreider and John Moore and a 25-year-old captain in Ryan McDonagh. The Rangers are the youngest they have been in forever, but their success, at least for this season, will ultimately be decided by how their stars perform and not just Lundqvist and also Martin St. Louis, but their most important offensive player, who just happens to be their highest-paid player at $7.8 million per year.

I lobbied for Rick Nash in New York. I was willing to trade Chris Kreider and the whole farm for him at the 2011-12 deadline to bring him to the No. 1 overall team in the East and try to end what was then an 18-year championship drought. The Rangers didn’t make the move (well, not until July) and lost in the Eastern Conference finals when the lucky-bounce goals stopped being a reliable source for them. And because I’m the president of the Rick Nash Fan Club, I haven’t said a negative thing about Nash through his first two season, 109 regular-season games and 37 postseason games with the Rangers, but that could change. That could change if Nash turns in a lackluster offensive season after his three-goal playoff performance and the Rangers somehow don’t reach the playoffs. I doubt that will happen, so it might not change until the playoffs when Nash will be evaluated like every other high-paid star in New York has been since the start of time.

In the 2011-12 playoffs I kept waiting for Nash to come around. I thought if the Rangers could get by the higher-seeded Capitals and overcome series deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 and win a Game 7 on the road without Nash scoring once in the seven games that they could get by the Bruins if his drought ended in the second round. Nash did score against the Bruins, but only once, and the Rangers lost in five games.

This past postseason, I was once again left waiting for Nash to come around. I thought if the Rangers could get past the Flyers in seven games without Nash scoring, they could beat the Rangers is his drought ended in the second round. And then when he went scoreless in seven games against the Penguins and the team was still able to overcome a 3-1 series deficit, I thought they could beat the Canadiens if his drought ended in the conference finals. Nash scored three goals against the Canadiens and the Rangers won in six games and I thought if he could stay hot for the Cup Final, the Rangers could win it all. He went pointless against the Kings and the Rangers lost in five games. Henrik Lundqvist has continually taken the Rangers as far as any goalie can take a team and even farther than anyone could have imagined a goalie could take an offensive-challenged team and now it’s time for Rick Nash to live up to his name and abilities and past and contract and carry them the rest of the way because I can’t protect him forever.

At the beginning of the playoffs, I knew the Rangers had to get by the Flyers and once they did I thought there was a chance they could beat the Penguins after the Game 1 win on the road. When they were faced with a 3-1 series deficit, I realized the season was likely over and just wanted them to extend it as long as possible. Then when they came back against the Penguins I was ecstatic that they were in the Eastern Conference finals, which seemed impossible a few days prior, and it seemed like the season could be considered successful no matter what happened against the Canadiens. Then when the Rangers routed the Habs in Game 1 and Carey Price went down for the series, I realized they had to win the series. I thought if they could get past the Canadiens and get to the Cup Final, I once again wouldn’t care about the series outcome because they had given me extra weeks of unexpected playoff hockey in a season that was nearly lost after looking like the stereotypical first- or second-round exit Rangers team all year. When they got to the Final and led Games 1 and 2 by two goals before blowing both games, my mindset changed. I wanted the Cup and wanted it desperately because the gap between the Western Conference winner and the Rangers wasn’t as big as everyone had been led to believe and I knew they could win it. And when I started to think back to every bounce and call and break that had to go their way to reach the Final, that hadn’t in the 20 years since since their last Final appearance, I realized it could be another 20 years until they would be in this spot again.

The odds are stacked against the Rangers to get back to Final because they’re stacked against every team when it comes to playing for and winning the Cup. You only get so many seasons in which injuries don’t ruin your year and when every playoff series presents a favorable matchup and when everything breaks right and falls perfectly on the way to playing for the Cup. Last year was one of those seasons for the Rangers and hopefully we won’t have to wait another 20 years for the next one. But I don’t think we will because for the first time in forever, getting back to the Stanley Cup Final doesn’t feel impossible.

Blogs • Giants

Oct 9, 2014

NFL Week 6 Picks

Mike Francesa loves to talk about the “Witching Hour” in the NFL, which according to him, is the period from 3 p.m. until the 1:00 games are over when games in the second half suddenly

Mike Francesa loves to talk about the “Witching Hour” in the NFL, which according to him, is the period from 3 p.m. until the 1:00 games are over when games in the second half suddenly start to turn, not only for wins and losses, but for spread-covering purposes. Week 5 was set up to be the ultimate “Witching Hour” experience with maybe the most games ever having at least a six-point spread in a given week and I was nervous that my picks season could be over once the “Witching Hour” ended on Sunday with still 12 weeks and the postseason left to pick. But I made it.

I made it through Week 5 of the NFL season despite nine games with at least a 6-point spread, seven quarterbacks who entered the season as backups, three rookie quarterbacks, a 1-3 vs. 1-3 matchup in Tampa Bay at New Orleans and the Tom Brady Patriots being a home underdog for one of the only times ever. I feel like I should get a shirt that says “I survived Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season” or at least a bumper sticker to let people know that when it came to my picks in the most challenging week ever I didn’t turn in the same type of performance the Jets did in San Diego. Actually, a bumper sticker wouldn’t be the best idea since I live in New York City and don’t have a car, but maybe I can buy ad space on that giant video board across from Madison Square Garden that keeps reminding me that the MLB Postseason is taking place. I thought a 10-5 week to save my season would be enough for me to get over the fact that I’m living through a second straight postseason-less October, but it hasn’t.

(Home team in caps)

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
After losing the first Thursday Night Football game of the season in Week 2, I have won three straight and once again the Thursday game is my bread and butter the way it was in 2013.

Denver -10 over NEW YORK JETS
I first saw this line at 8. WFAN producer Brian Monzo told me he got it at 7 on our podcast. At the time of the podcast it was at 9. When the podcast was over, it was at 10. I’m not sure if Monzo’s “Bet the mortgage” line on the podcast pushed Vegas over the edge and forced them to make it a TD-and-FG game, but they did and for the first time in 2014, we have a road team getting at least 10 points. I would have taken the Broncos here at -13.5. Monzo told me he would take them -21. So really, 10 points feels like a steal the way a happy hour offering $6 beers feels like a steal and I would have to think this is the elimination pool pick of the week. How can it not be?

After Sunday’s debacle in San Diego, I thought about calling Keefe To The City resident Jets superfan Tim Duff for our third podcast of the year to get his state of the Jets address, but I held off and decided it made more sense to have Duff back on the podcast after this week, after Peyton Manning comes to town. After Peyton, the Jets get the revitalized Tom Brady on a short week on Thursday Night Football. The “hope to be 3-4 and in the playoff hunt” after the six-week gauntlet of Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver and New England is no longer a possibility because the Jets aren’t going to win back-to-back games against two of the all-time greats. And the six-week gauntlet has actually been extended since the Bills appear to be a playoff contender, as do the Chiefs and Steelers. Looking at the remaining schedule for the Jets there’s a very real chance they could finish this season on a 15-game losing streak and go 1-15. Please let this happen, Football Gods.

CLEVELAND -2 over Pittsburgh
Just as the Browns were pulling off their biggest comeback in franchise history to potentially save my –way-too-many-team teaser, the Bears were imploding in Carolina, so it didn’t matter. And since it didn’t matter, I wish I hadn’t been rooting for the Browns against the Titans as if they were the Giants because it only further delayed Johnny Manziel becoming the starting quarterback in Cleveland. At 2-2, Manziel isn’t going to be taking Brian Hoyer’s job and after Pittsburgh, the Browns have Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay in consecutive weeks. If the Browns can beat the Steelers and repay them for their devastating Week 1 loss, they could be looking at 6-2 after Week 9. The Browns at 6-2? Is this real life?

Jacksonville +6 over TENNESSEE
The Jaguars nearly covered in Week 5 against what is a bad Steelers team, which is having trouble putting away the worst teams in the league. Over the last four weeks, the Jaguars have lost by 31, 27, 19 and 8, so not only is their margin of losing dropping, but they are getting closer and closer to finally covering and I think this is the week they finally do it. The Titans have lost four straight and their lost last week involved blowing a 25-point lead to the Browns. Let me repeat that: last week involved blowing a 25-point lead to the Browns. Not only is blowing a 25-point lead at home absolutely demoralizing, but blowing it against the Browns, who have only ever been on the wrong end of losses like that in their franchise’s history, is season-crushing.

Green Bay -3.5 over MIAMI
This has all the makings of a trap with the Packers putting together back-to-back dominant performances, but I understand the impact of a team coming off a bye and a 14-day break for the Dolphins after their trip to London. If it is a trap, I’m falling for it and I don’t care.

MINNESOTA +2 over Detroit
In Week 5, with both Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel injured, the Vikings signed quarterback Chandler Harnish, who had just been signed to the team’s practice squad earlier in the same week, for their Thursday night game against the Packers. Harnish was the last pick in the 2012 NFL Draft (253rd overall) and after spending two seasons with the Colts, I’m sure he realized he would probably never get into an NFL game. But then there was Christian Ponder in Green Bay playing quarterback like someone who had won a pregame sweepstakes while tailgating in the parking lot outside Lambeau Field and I have to think that Harnish thought he would get his chance to get into a game, but he never did.

I’m not sure why Harnish wasn’t given a chance with the Vikings eventually losing the game by 32 points. What’s the worst that could have happened? They would have lost by more? Is there something meaningful to losing by 32 rather than 42? At least if Harnish had gotten into the game maybe Mike Zimmer would have seen something from the former last pick and enough to possibly have a better option than Ponder on his roster if it ever comes to Ponder needing to start another game in the future. But no, Christian Ponder is still on the Vikings and still in the NFL and the chance still exists that he might get to play once again in the future.

CINCINNATI -7 over Carolina
Hey, Cincinnati, umm what the eff was that? Thanks for letting the Patriots up off the mat and saving their season from spiraling out of control and from dividing the locker room and front office in New England and from having Boston sports radio field endless calls about benching or trading Tom Brady.

The only good thing to come out of Sunday night was listening to the Gillette Stadium crowd chant “BRA-DY! BRA-DY! BRA-DY!” as if he was Rudy Ruettiger trying to get into his first career game instead of a three-time Super Bowl champion winning a home game. I thought it was the lowest point in history for Patriots fans until NBC showed the “We Still Believe in Brady” sign. I guess 10 years is a long time to not win a championship.

BUFFALO +3 over New England
I was wrong about the Bengals going into Foxboro and ripping the hearts out of Gillette Stadium and putting the Patriots in a place they haven’t been since 2002. But I wasn’t wrong about the Patriots’ dynasty crumbling. It’s still happening, it just took a week off thanks to the combination of Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton and a defense that looked like they had seen a screening of the 30 for 30 about the Boston College point-shaving scandal and decided to start their own by allowing 220 rushing yards and 505 total yards.

I do realize that I’m asking Kyle Orton to win a second straight game, or at least be the starting quarterback of a team looking for its second straight win since the Bills didn’t win in Week 5, but rather Alex Henery lost the game for the Lions. But maybe, just maybe there is some magic in Buffalo with Kyle Orton getting another chance to be the starting quarterback of an NFL team. And yes, I just used the theory of “magic” for my reasoning on why I’m picking the Bills to cover against the Patriots.

TAMPA BAY +3.5 over Baltimore
Last week I talked about how the Ravens just keep winning and things keep going their way despite the Ray Rice situation and how they have handled it from the start. I hoped things would start to go south for the Ravens with their trip to Indianapolis, but losing 20-13 in Indianapolis isn’t good enough for me. But you know what is? A loss to the Buccaneers.

San Diego -7.5 over OAKLAND
I usually take the Raiders and the points against the Chargers, but this isn’t the usual situation. The Chargers might be the best team in the NFL and the Raiders might be the worst though I’m sure the Jaguars and Jets would like to at least be part of the conversation. Think about this: the Jets couldn’t get the ball over midfield against the Chargers last week and lost 31-0 and the Jets beat the Raiders. Knowing that, how can you take the Raiders even if a home team getting a touchdown at home in the NFL is supposedly great value?

ATLANTA -3 over Chicago
I finally quit the Bears. After they were barely able to hang on against the Jets in Week 3, I said I wouldn’t pick them against the Packers in Week 4. But then it came time for the Week 4 picks and I picked the Bears +1.5 over the Packers and Bears lost 38-17 despite leading 21-17 and I said I wouldn’t pick them in Week 5 against the Panthers. But then it came time for the Week 5 Picks and I picked the Bears +2.5 over Carolina and the Bears lost 31-24 despite leading 21-7 and I said I wouldn’t pick them in Week 6 against the Falcons. Well, here we are and I have strongly considered picking the Bears +3 in Atlanta and I really want to pick them, but I’m not going to. I’m finally done with the Bears. So it would be appreciated if they would just get blown out at the Georgia Dome and not win and just remain out of my life.

SEATTLE -8 over Dallas
The difference between a 10-6 season and a 6-10 season could be traced back to a couple of plays over the year and right now all of those season-changing plays are going the Cowboys’ way. After overcoming a 21-point deficit in St. Louis in Week 3, the Cowboys managed to hold on against the Texans in Week 5 with an overtime win. Both of those outcomes are bad for the Giants because this isn’t the old days when the NFC East would send three teams to the playoffs and with just two teams between the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles going to the postseason this year, if the Giants are going to make it, they are going to need the Cowboys to start being on the other end of close games. A trip to Seattle won’t be close for Cowboys, but it will bring them a much-needed loss before their Week 7 meeting with the Giants at MetLife.

ARIZONA -3.5 over Washington
It was weird to hear Jon Gruden refer to his brother as “Jay Gruden” during Monday Night Football. I understand that maybe not everyone watching is informed that the voice on the TV is related to the head coach of the Redskins, but try referring to your brother by his full name the next time you are talking about him.

The Redskins are in a bad place right now. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been able to keep the team afloat and now after three straight losses, their season is in a free fall and it will be long over by the time RG III returns.

New York Giants +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The Giants are back! Three straight wins all by double digits and three straight games of scoring at least 30 points. Do you know how many times the Giants scored 30 points last season? Once. In Week 1 against the Cowboys, the Giants scored 31 in their 36-31 loss and then never scored more than 27 in a game. The last time the Giants scored at least 30 points in three straight games was back in Weeks 9-12 (four weeks) in 2008 and that streak came to an end when the Giants scored 23 in a 23-7 win over the Redskins in their first game following Plaxico Burress’ night out at Latin Quarter.

I have to admit I was skeptical about the Giants’ offense after a rough preseason and an embarrassing Week 1 loss. But Ben McAdoo has proved me and I think everyone wrong and I can now stop secretly wishing I hadn’t said and written and tweeted so many bad things about Kevin Gilbride over the years. In fact, I can keep saying and writing and tweeting bad things about his third-and-7 draw plays.

Even after the Giants’ poor 0-2 start, they are a win in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football from at least having sole possession of second place in the NFC East and a win and Cowboys’ loss to the Seahawks (a very likely loss) from being tied for first place. The Giants are back! (I do realize by me saying, “The Giants are back!” I have now placed expectations on them and that’s the worst thing anyone can do to the New York Football Giants.)

San Francisco -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
In back-to-back weeks the Rams have had a chance to help the Giants out with the NFC East standings, but they fell short both times, losing to the Cowboys 34-31 and the Eagles 34-28. I just hope the Rams aren’t saving their NFC East wins for when they play the Giants in Week 16, which would totally eff up the Giants’ postseason chances and end up being the icing on the cake in the latest Tom Coughlin era second-half collapse.

Last week: 10-5-0
Season: 37-38-1

Blogs • MLB

Oct 2, 2014

My World Series Dilemma

October without the Yankees is miserable. I used to be able to count on the Yankees to help me cope with the end of summer and leaves falling and the temperature dropping, but that is

October without the Yankees is miserable. I used to be able to count on the Yankees to help me cope with the end of summer and leaves falling and the temperature dropping, but that is no longer a sure-thing. It helps that the Giants saved their season with back-to-back wins in Weeks 3 and 4 and that hockey starts next week, but watching the wild card games on Tuesday and Wednesday night and seeing this massive ad for the MLB postseason on 7th Ave. this week only made me depressed and then mad and then sad and then angry. The division series haven’t even started yet and I’m already at the breaking point of hating baseball and knowing that I have over six months until Opening Day.

Back in 2010 with the Giants missing out on the NFL playoffs, I wrote My Super Bowl Dilemma and ranked the playoff teams from who I wanted to win the Super Bowl the most to the last. I did it again this past year. Since this is only the third time since 1993 the Yankees have missed the playoffs, I haven’t had many opportunities to do a baseball version of the dilemma. And the last two times they missed the postseason (2008 and 2013), the Red Sox were in it, so it was pretty obvious who I didn’t want to win the World Series those years.

This year it’s different. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are home and the playoff field seems to be wide open, but when it comes to life as a Yankees fan, there is an order of who to pull for this October. So I ranked the eight playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win the World Series to which team I don’t want to see win it all.

1. Dodgers
The Yankees reached the World Series in 1981 and lost to the Dodgers in six games. The next season, Don Mattingly was a rookie on the Yankees.

Mattingly played for the Yankees from 1982-1995 and the only time he reached the postseason was in 1995 in the final year of his career. (At least he gave us this memory.) The 1995 Yankees held a 2-0 series lead over the Mariners in what was then a 2-3 ALDS format before losing the final three games of the series on the road, including Game 5 on a walk-off, which saved the Mariners as a franchise and got them a new stadium.

The next season with Mattingly retired, the Yankees reached the World Series and won it.

Mattingly became the Yankees hitting coach in 2004 and with a 3-0 series lead in the ALCS, it looked like he would get to be a part of the World Series for the first time. Then some things happened and some more things happened and he didn’t get to the World Series in 2004. He remained hitting coach for the Yankees in 2005 and 2006 and the Yankees lost in the ALDS both times. In 2007, he came the bench coach for Joe Torre and again the Yankees were eliminated in the ALDS. After the 2007 season with Torre declining the Yankees’ incentive-loaded contract, the Yankees passed over Mattingly to be their next manager and instead hired Joe Girardi.

Mattingly followed Torre to Los Angeles and became the hitting coach for the Dodgers in 2008 and has remained with the team since, while the Yankees went on to win the 2009 World Series. He became manager of the Dodgers in 2011 and missed the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 before reaching the NLCS in 2013 and losing to the Cardinals in six games, falling two wins short of the World Series for the third time since 2009.

Don Mattingly was my first favorite player. Enough is enough. He deserves a World Series. And not just a World Series appearance. He deserves a World Series win.

(And my girlfriend is a Dodgers fan, so there’s that too.)

2. Royals
There’s nothing to dislike about the Royals. They reached the playoffs for the first time in 29 years, overcame a four-run deficit and a one-run deficit in the 12th inning to win the wild card. And they prevented Jon Lester from having to start anymore games this year, which will help protect his left arm when the Yankees offer him $200 million this winter.

3. Orioles
Buck Showalter wanted to beat the Yankees in the 2012 ALDS more than you ever have wanted anything in your life. And since he couldn’t do that, he wanted to badly eliminate the Yankees from postseason contention last week at Yankee Stadium, which he successfully accomplished.

I can’t help but think that not a day goes by that Showalter doesn’t think that he should be living the luxurious life that Joe Torre has lived since taking over the Yankees for Showalter in1996. I’m not sure if Showalter and Torre are friends or if they like each other, but there’s no way Buck can like Joe after watching him win four World Series and go to six and get inducted into the Hall of Fame as a manager and get his number retired in Monument Park and be an ambassador for baseball all while Buck has kept grinding it out every day as a manager and doing TV work between managerial jobs.

I don’t like the Orioles and I wouldn’t want them to become the new kings and future of the AL East, but Buck deserves to win the World Series.

4. Nationals
Two years ago, the Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg for the season after starting 28 games and throwing 159 1/3 innings, keeping the ace from pitching in the playoffs in the team’s first postseason appearance. The Nationals are fortunate to be back in the playoffs this year, just two years removed from their last postseason appearance, because you never know when you will get back there.

I’m sure after winning back-to-back World Series in 1992 and 1993 the Blue Jays thought they had the next dynasty in Toronto, but they haven’t been back to the playoffs since. And I’m sure after 1985 the Royals thought they would just keep on winning, but on Tuesday night they played their first playoff game in 29 years since that World Series. And I’m sure Red Sox fans in 1918 were laughing about their dominance, having won four World Series in seven years, never thinking it would take them 86 years to win their next one.

The Nationals played a dangerous game with what they did with Strasburg in 2012. If Strasburg had helped the Nationals win the 2012 World Series (and they could have) and then was unable to ever pitch again, he did his job. He would have brought Washington a championship, which is all any player is there to do. The Nationals shouldn’t be worried about the length of careers or making sure their ace is healthy for next season and the season after that. The goal is to win a championship and Strasburg could have helped them to do that. Maybe he will help them win one this year, but the Nationals front office doesn’t deserve it.

5. Giants
I hate the Giants because like I said, my girlfriend is a Dodgers fan and I wouldn’t allow her to root for the Red Sox in our house, so I’m not about to be a hypocrite. If the Giants win, they will keep their pattern of winning the World Series and then missing the playoffs the following season, which started in 2010. But if they win, I will be living in an unhappy household.

6. Angels
For all the money the Angels spend (I know I’m not one to talk), the last playoff game they played in was Game 6 of the 2009 ALCS. They missed the playoffs the last four years, but that didn’t keep Mike Scioscia from losing his job and it hasn’t kept Mike Francesa from considering him to be the best manager in baseball.

It was the Angels who eliminated the Yankees in four games in the 2002 ALDS after the Yankees won Game 1 and it was the Angels who eliminated the Yankees in five games in the 2005 ALDS after the Yankees fought back to send the series to a Game 5 in Anaheim. Mike Mussina gave up the early 2-0 lead in Game 5 like only Mike Mussina could and even with Bartolo Colon leaving the game in the second inning for a young Ervin Santana, the Yankees couldn’t win. Between the Bubba Crosby/Gary Sheffield debacle in the outfield and A-Rod’s rally-killing double play in the ninth inning against K-Rod, that game will always bother me.

The 2009 ALCS made up for those two ALDS losses with the Yankees getting past the Angels for the first time (something they still haven’t over come against the Tigers). But that doesn’t change the fact that the Angels were responsible for two early postseason exits for the Yankees and because of that, I don’t want them to win.

7. Tigers
I will never forget leaving Yankee Stadium after Game 1 of the 2006 ALDS with River Ave. filling up with chants of “SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP!” after the Yankees’ 8-4 win over the Tigers and Derek Jeter’s 5-for-5 night to open the playoffs. Who wasn’t thinking sweep with the Yankees’ lineup being called “Murderer’s Row and Cano” and living up to that billing with eight runs on 14 hits in Game 1? But then the Game 2 rainout pushed the game from a Wednesday night in the Bronx to a Thursday afternoon, killing all of the momentum of the series and putting the Tigers in a more comfortable spot in the day at Yankee Stadium. Mike Mussina couldn’t hold a 3-1 lead and with Joel Zumaya throwing flames with the late-afternoon shadows covering home plate, the Yankees lost and the series changed.

Randy Johnson couldn’t put the team on his back in Game 3 the following night and the day after that, the Yankees were eliminated with Jaret Wright on the mound to save the season and A-Rod hitting eighth in the lineup. Jeter (8-for-16), Jorge Posada (7-for-14) and Bobby Abreu (5-for-15) were the only ones to hit in the series for the Yankees, but it didn’t matter with the pitching staff giving up 22 runs in four games.

The 2011 ALDS was another disaster. The Friday night rainout after the first inning suspended the game to Saturday and the Yankees ended up winning. But then Freddy Garcia started Game 2 and CC Sabathia wasn’t himself in Game 3 and the Yankees were in a 2-1 hole, forcing the “I Believe in A.J.” campaign on Twitter for Game 4 with A.J. Burnett getting a start after a miserable regular season. Burnett nearly blew the game in the first with the bases loaded, but Curtis Granderson made a memorable catch to keep it scoreless and the Yankees went on to win Game 4 and send it home for Game 5.

I didn’t think the Yankees would lose Game 5 since Ivan Nova had been outstanding in Game 1. But Doug Fister became Cliff Lee 2.0 and shut the Yankees down as A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher turned in their usual postseason performances. The Yankees put 13 runners on and scored two runs in the Game 5 loss.

There wasn’t much to the 2012 ALCS. When the Yankees overcame a 4-0 deficit in the ninth to tie the game on another Raul Ibanez home run, it felt like their year. You don’t lose games like that at home, but the Yankees did and lost Jeter for the rest of the season (and then nearly all of 2013). I knew the series was over when I left the Stadium that night in as bad of a mood as I have ever been in following a Yankees’ loss, but I didn’t realize that would be the last time I would ever see Jeter play in the postseason because it was the last time he ever played in the postseason..

Those three postseason losses, coupled with the idea of seeing Phil Coke, Justin Verlander and Brad Ausmus celebrate a World Series is more than enough to not want to see the Tigers win.

8. Cardinals
There is nothing to like about the Cardinals. Nothing. After winning 97 games last year, they survived a five-game scare from the Pirates, knocked off the Dodgers in six games (beating Clayton Kershaw twice) and then forgot how to hit and score runs in the World Series. The Cardinals scored 14 runs in six games against the Red Sox, scoring one run in Games 1, 5 and 6 on their way to giving the Red Sox their third World Series in 10 seasons. But that’s not the worst part.

The worst part is what happened 10 years ago in October of 2004 when I was a freshman in college in Boston. Even after the Yankees had blown the ALCS and I had blown all the money I had saved in the summer for the first semester on tickets to Game 5 of the ALCS for a chance to watch the Yankees win the pennant in person at Fenway Park, the Red Sox still had to get by the 105-win Cardinals to win the World Series.

That Cardinals team had Albert Pujols (46 HR, 123 RBIs, .331/.415/.657), Jim Edmonds (42 HR, 111 RBIs, .301/.418/.643) and Scott Rolen (34 HR, 124 RBIs, .314/.409/.598). Current manager Mike Matheny was their catcher and they had four 15-game winners in their rotation. But none of those 15-game winners started Game 1 of the World Series. Instead 37-year-old Woody Williams got the ball and allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. (A 23-year-old Dan Haren relieved him and pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings and had he started, the Cardinals probably win that game). The Cardinals lost 11-9 in Game 1 despite overcoming a five-run deficit and despite the Red Sox making four errors and that was it.

The Cardinals would score just three runs combined over the next three games and after never leading in the four-game series, they were done and the 86-year curse was over and I can still hear the noise from the final out of the 2004 World Series echoing through Boston as if it happened just yesterday. Eff you, St. Louis.

Blogs • Giants

Oct 2, 2014

NFL Week 5 Picks

Week 5 is set up to be the most unpredictable NFL picks week ever and it will either put me in an insurmountable hole or have me ready to make a midseason run in October.

The first four weeks of the picks season has been a grind. Week 1 was whatever, Week 2 was an embarrassment, Week 3 was decent and Week 4 was ehh. But now in Week 5, it’s pretty much going to be the beginning of something great or the end of the 2014 picks season despite having 12 weeks and the postseason left.

Week 5 features nine games with at least a 6-point spread, seven quarterbacks who entered the season as backups, three rookie quarterbacks, a 1-3 vs. 1-3 matchup in Tampa Bay at New Orleans and the Tom Brady Patriots being a home underdog for one of the only times ever. Between the Giants playing a must-win game, these picks, bets, parlays, teasers, fantasy football and pools, this day could either end with me being a thousandaire or me getting so drunk I try to challenge Red Zone host Andrew Siciliano to a fight through my TV.

(Home team in caps)

GREEN BAY -8.5 over Minnesota/Minnesota +8.5 over GREEN BAY
This pick depends on the status of Teddy Bridgewater. If Bridgewater starts, I will take the Vikings. If he doesn’t, I will take the Packers. I’m not about to back Christian Ponder ever let alone a week after the Packers blew the doors off the Bears in Chicago.

Chicago +2.5 over CAROLINA
These two teams seem very similar in that they are both underachievers loaded with a bunch of talent and I continue to pick them each week thinking they will finally put it together only to be let down. Now that they are playing each other, I’m forced to pick one of them and though I’m probably better off picking this one out of a hat, I will take the underachiever with more talent.

Cleveland +1 over TENNESSEE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Browns fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

PHILADELPHIA -7 over St. Louis
I didn’t care that the Eagles lost to the 49ers in Week 4 and cost me what should have been an easy picks win with a push (+5) because their loss meant the Giants are only one game back in the NFC East now. After being unable to move the ball all game on the San Francisco defense and only being in the game because of three special teams touchdowns, the Eagles had the ball first-and-goal at the 49ers’ 6 with just over two minutes to play. And here is what the Eagles did:

First-and-goal at San Francisco 6: Incomplete pass to Jeremy Maclin.

Second-and-goal at San Francisco 6: LeSean McCoy rushes for five yards to the 1.

Third-and-goal at San Francisco 1: Incomplete pass to Brent Celek.

Fourth-and-goal at San Francisco 1: Incomplete pass to Jeremy Maclin.

So with the ball on the 1 and two plays to get it in and have a lead with about two minutes left in the game, Chip Kelly decided to not give the ball to the best running back in the league. Sure, McCoy hadn’t been running well all day and finished with only 17 yards (on only 10 carries), but he did just pick up five yards on second down. Instead, the Eagles went with two passing plays, the second of which, with the game on the line, was thrown out of the end zone and was closer to being caught in the the third row then it was by an Eagles receiver.

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Atlanta
When I think about this game, I can’t help but think about the Giants’ 24-2 win over the Falcons in the 2011 playoffs. Maybe this game won’t play out exactly like that one since that Giants team was riding an historical wave of momentum, but this team is also riding their own currently mini-wave of momentum after saving their season with back-to-back wins and a 10-day break.

I wish this weren’t the third must-win game in a row for the Giants, but it is. With their next two games in Philadelphia and Dallas and then with Indianapolis, Seattle, San Francisco and Dallas again after their Week 8 bye, this is about as easy as it gets for the Giants until that nice Jacksonville-Tennessee-Washington-St. Louis portion of the schedule in Weeks 13-16. So yes, this is a must-win game … again.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
A home game for the Saints? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

(I had to add their 11-point win over the Vikings from Week 3 to that list.)

With the Saints coming off an embarrassing loss on Sunday Night Football and their season on the brink of destruction, the Superdome is the worst possible place for the Buccaneers to be headed a week after their impressive comeback in Pittsburgh and with Mike Glennon’s confidence at an all-time high.

Houston +6 over DALLAS
If the Giants didn’t exist then the Cowboys would be the worst team when playing with expectations, and after being picked to be your standard mediocre Tony Romo era team, the 2014 Cowboys now have expectations. In the last three weeks, they have beat up on the Titans, overcome a 21-0 deficit against the Rams and routed the Saints. At 3-1, hype has found Dallas in a year it wasn’t expected to thanks to DeMarco Murray’s 534 rushing yards in four games and I don’t know what makes me happier: when the Cowboys have hype or the when the Giants have none.

DETROIT -7 over Buffalo
Back in Week 2, I said “Good times can’t be sustained in Buffalo” and picked the Dolphins -1 over the Bills. The Bills won. Then in Week 3, I said, “It’s hard to buy into a good Bills start when you consider the way two other good starts finished in recent years” and picked the Bills -2.5 over San Diego. The Bills lost. After starting the season 2-0 with wins in Chicago and against Miami and selling their teams to the Sabres owner, who will keep the Bills in Buffalo, the Bills have lost two straight to San Diego and Houston and now EJ Manuel has been benched for Kyle Orton. Things got out of hand fast for the 2014 Bills and going to Detroit, where the Lions are 2-0 and beat the Giants by 21 and the Packers by 21, isn’t the best place to turn things around. (And unfortunately, we are all going to have see Jim Schwartz’s face on TV a lot because of this game.)

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 over Baltimore
If the Ray Rice video isn’t released, Rice would have already played two games this season after serving his initial two-week suspension, which the NFL and Ravens thought was appropriate. And since that incident and fallout, nothing bad has happened to the Ravens. They cut Rice, wrote a multi-page statement rebutting everything ESPN’s Outside the Lines reported about them and then had their owner Steve Bisciotti hold a ridiculous press conference to talk about that statement and through all of this, they have won three straight games. If you try to envision the worst possible way to handle this entire mess, the Ravens have handled it even worse than that and yet, they keep winning and things just keep going their way. Well, that ends in Week 5 in Indianapolis against the highest-scoring offense in the league.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I hate taking the Steelers let alone taking them to cover 6.5 on the road coming off a meltdown at home. But when you have a team only giving 6.5 points to the Jaguars, you have to take it. You just have to. The Jaguars have lost by 17, 31, 27 and 19 this season and things don’t look like they’re getting any better. This might be the worst Jaguars team ever and that’s impressive considering they went 4-12, 2-14 and 5-11 in their last three seasons.

DENVER -8 over Arizona
That last time Peyton Manning lost coming off the bye week was 2004. Ten years. (Well, it will be 10 years on Oct. 24.) Since then, Peyton and the Colts (2005-10) and the Broncos (2012-13) are 8-0, winning by an average of 17 points.

Kansas City +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Either the Chiefs needed the first two games of the season to get on track and look like the early-season 2013 Chiefs, or the last two games were an anomaly and this line should be higher and I’m a sucker for taking the Chiefs based off their Monday Night Football performance. It’s most likely the latter since beating up the on the Patriots at a raucous place like Arrowhead isn’t hard to do given the current state of the Patriots and I will end up regretting this decision when the 49ers are going up and down the field against the Chiefs and the Chiefs can’t manage the game with the run against the 49ers’ defense, which held Matt Forte to 21 yards and LeSean McCoy to 17 yards.

SAN DIEGO -7 over New York Jets
I desperately wish this game were going to be played at MetLife to hear the “WE WANT VICK! WE WANT VICK! WE WANT VICK!” chants fill the stadium. But instead Rex Ryan and John Idzik will get this Sunday off from live peer pressure when Geno Smith inevitably fails to lead the offense consistently down the field and will have to deal with the questions and critics following the game and all week long back home.

Before the season started, I did a podcast with Tim Duff (we did another one after the Jets’ loss to the Packers) and he told me he was hoping the Jets would be 3-4 after their first seven games and in the thick of the postseason race. Well, the Jets are 1-3 and now need to go 2-1 against Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and then Tom Brady on a short week in order to achieve that pipe dream of Duff’s. And I hate to sound like Joey Knish right now telling Duff that his dream of the 2014 Jets making the postseason is a pipe dream, but this isn’t Mikey McDermott bluffing Johnny Chan at the Taj or getting back his three stacks of high society from Teddy KGB to make a run at Vegas. It’s the same old Jets. The same old Jets with the same problems. And when I asked Duff about his thoughts on the quarterback controversy on Tuesday, he said, “I give Geno one more game.” The problem is the Jets can’t afford to give Geno one more game in hopes that their not-really-a-franchise-quarterback-but-still-the-franchise-quarterback Geno Smith will miraculously come around on the road against the 3-1 Chargers, whose only loss is a one-point loss on the road against the undefeated Cardinals and who put up 30 points against the best defense in the league in a win over the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

Forget 3-4 after going through the gauntlet. The Jets could be looking at 1-6.

Cincinnati -1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
When I talked about the end of the Patriots’ dynasty last week, I thought it would be a gradual decline. I didn’t think the Patriots would get run out of Arrowhead, allow 41 points to the Chiefs and Tom Brady would find the bench on Monday Night Football. Let’s recap the Patriots’ four games this year:

Week 1 at Miami: Allowed 33 points, including 191 rushing yards, to the scoring-challenged Dolphins.

Week 2 at Minnesota: Beat up on the Vikings immediately following Adrian Peterson’s suspension, which left the Vikings without a game plan due to the absence of their best player.

Week 3 vs. Oakland: Needed a rookie quarterback playing in his third career game to throw a game-ending interception at the New England 12 with a chance to tie the game and send it to overtime.

Week 4 at Kansas City: Allowed 41 points and 207 rushing yards in a 27-point loss and Tom Brady was benched after throwing 159 yards with two interceptions.

All of my Boston friends had a good laugh at the Patriots’ win total for 2014 being “only” 11 as they poured money into sportsbooks as if it was the biggest lock since since the 1919 World Series. The Patriots are lucky to be 2-2 and are now facing the undefeated Bengals (who have allowed 33 points in three games and coming off a bye) on a short week. I’m not surprised the Patriots are a home underdog for just the sixth time since 2002. I’m surprised they aren’t getting more points.

Seattle -7.5 over WASHINGTON
Ten days after throwing four interceptions against the Giants, Kirk Cousins will have to deal with the Seahawks, who will be coming off their bye week. After this one, we can count the Redskins out in the NFC East and make it a three-team race.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 27-33-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 25, 2014

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week was a bounce-back week for the picks, but this week needs to better in order to climb out of the early-season hole.

Thursday is a gongshow. It’s Derek Jeter’s final home game ever at Yankee Stadium and the Giants are playing the Redskins in a must-win game to save their season, which means the DVR is already going to need to be ready for a Game 7-like performance. And that’s before I factor in my girlfriend trying to work Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal into the mix.

7:00: Derek Jeter’s final home game on YES
8:25: Grey’s Anatomy on ABC
8:30: Giants at Redskins on CBS
9:00: Scandal on ABC

Obviously we have a problem here. The final game at the Stadium for Number 2 and the Giants playing basically a playoff game in Week 4 should take precedence over the 11th season of Meredith Grey and whatever insane (actually insane) plot Olivia Pope is going to be a part of. However, I don’t know how to cook, or at least cook well, and my girlfriend is very good at it. As much fun as eating pizza sounds every night for the foreseeable future, I do want some actual nutrition in my diet, so I’m going to have to figure something out to make sure Meredith and Olivia make the cut.

It sucks having the Giants play on a short week in an important game just four days after their first win of the season. And it sucks even more that because of Jeter’s final game, I won’t get to enjoy the Giants (if you can really call watching Giants football “enjoyment”) for another 10 days when they play the Falcons. But it won’t suck if they win in Washington, improve to 2-2 with a 10-day break and get my picks started off with a win in Week 4.

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +3.5 over WASHINGTON
The road team is 0-2 on Thursday Night Football this year. Last year the road team went 6-9 on Thursday Night Football. In other words, it’s really hard to play on Sunday and then have three fake days of practice and preparation and then travel and win a game. Luckily for the Giants, their trip to Washington isn’t that far and if they have to travel to somewhere that isn’t Philadelphia, Washington is a great second choice.

To non-Giants and Redskins fans, this game probably appears as a Thursday Night mess the way the Falcons-Buccaneers game was last week, but there is a lot at stake in this game. As I told my friend Ray, one team is going to enter a 10-day break at 2-2 with control of their season and other team is going to be 1-3 and will have unsuccessfully made it to October with playoff aspirations. Sure, the season will only be 25 percent over for the Giants and Redskins after Thursday night’s game, but look at the schedules for both teams and then tell me that 1-3 isn’t the same as calling them mathematically eliminated on Sept. 25.

After watching the latest edition of the Kirk Cousins experiment in Washington, I wish RGIII hadn’t dislocated his ankle and would be starting this game. Led by Cousins, the Redskins gave away a game in Philadelphia on Sunday and went punch for punch with the best offensive team in the NFC and now Cousins can either begin his campaign to unseat RGIII as the franchise quarterback in Washington or he can dig the Redskins’ hole a little deeper and make sure the Jay Gruden era continues the way the Mike Shanahan era ended.

This is a must-win game for both teams and with the Giants’ season on the line on Sept. 25, the Yankees having been eliminated from postseason contention on Wednesday and the Rangers not starting for another 14 days, I feel like Mitch’s co-worker in the copy room trying to join the fraternity in Old School: “You listen to me. I need this, OK?”

OAKLAND +4 over Miami
I want to believe in the Dolphins because a good Dolphins team means a better chance the Patriots or Jets don’t win the AFC East, but after beating the Patriots in Week 1, the Dolphins have scored 25 points over their last two games and Ryan Tannehill has been just blah. He hasn’t thrown for more than 241 yards in any of his three games and last week at home he completed just 48.8 percent of his passes in a loss to the Chiefs. He hasn’t progressed or showed signs of growing as a quarterback the way you would like a quarterback to start to in his third season.

Oddly enough, the Raiders, who haven’t won a game on the East Coast since 2009, have lost by five and seven points in their two road games against the Jets and Patriots. They have scored even less than the Dolphins (37 points in three games), but they have … well they have … umm … they … OK, fine I don’t have anything good to say about the Raiders or anything positive to try to justify picking them to cover. I guess they did make Tom Brady look as human as any team has in recent years and nearly brought the Patriots to overtime. Other than that, I have nothing. They’re really bad. Let’s move on before I switch this pick.

CHICAGO +1.5 over Green Bay
The Packers aren’t good. They’re just not. But because they have Aaron Rodgers, they are made to be better than they are and I’m sick and tired of hearing about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Nothing is ever his fault. It’s either his offensive line’s fault or his receivers’ fault and of course it wasn’t his fault when the Packers put up seven points in a dome in Detroit last week.

So far this season, the Packers were routed in Seattle, needed to overcome a 21-0 deficit and survive a controversial timeout call to beat the Jets at home and had that seven-point performance against the Lions. Get out on the Packers while you still can.

Buffalo +3 over HOUSTON
For anyone who watched Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback for the Texans on Sunday, how the eff do the Texans have one win let alone two? I guess when he has Arian Foster to hand the ball off to like he did in Weeks 1 and 2 when he only attempted 22 and 19 passes respectively his job is a little easier than when he is asked to throw the ball 34 times like he did against the Giants, resulting in three interceptions.

It hasn’t even been three years since Fitzpatrick signed a six-year, $59 million contract with the Bills during the 2011 season when his stock was the highest and he was shifting power in fantasy leagues across the country, but it feels like that was 30 years ago with the way his career has gone since, bouncing around from Buffalo to Tennessee and now to Houston. With Houston playing Buffalo, Dallas, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in their next four games, there’s a good chance Ryan Mallett becomes the quarterback of the Texans around Week 8.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 over Tennessee
The 2014 Colts are going to look back on the season and thank the Jaguars for propelling them to a great season in Week 3 by giving them their first win, building their confidence and getting back on track after two devastating losses to start the season. And after thanking the Jaguars, the Colts are going to thank the Titans for continuing the Colts’ surge and keeping them on track in Week 4.

Carolina +3.5 over BALTIMORE
After Roger Goodell’s press conference last Friday, I thought we would have to wait a long time for a worse press conference from a high-ranking major sports executive and even then we might never see one. But three days later, Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti decided he would take a run at the title by holding his own press conference and just jumping right into questions in an attempt to rebut the ESPN Outside The Lines piece that ripped apart the Ravens’ handling of the Ray Rice situation and made them out to be liars. Luckily, on this site, I don’t have anyone who can suspend me for calling someone else a liar, so I will gladly call Bisciotti a liar because if you have ever asked anyone a question knowing as a fact they are lying well that’s exactly how Bisciotti acted on Monday.

Bisciotti didn’t come across as someone who started his own business out of his basement, eventually making him a billionaire, and he didn’t speak like someone who is worth a reported $1.5 billion. Bisciotti stuttered and mumbled and “umm’d” and “uhh’d” his way through a painful question-answering session in which he frequently told reporters that his answer to their question was “in the statement” referring to a nine-page statement handed out minutes before the press conference began. As an entrepreneur, who has obviously made great decisions and who could spend $50,000 a day for the next 50 years and still have $587.5 million left, why would you think it would be a good idea to hand out a lengthy statement full of answers minutes before beginning a press conference and then getting testy that people are asking questions that have been answered in the statement?

Detroit -2 over NEW YORK JETS
We are so, so, so, so, so close to hearing Michael Vick chants at MetLife Stadium and if the first half of this game gets away from the Jets, we could very well see the end of Geno Smith’s career as a starting quarterback. That might seem unfair considering he is only in his second season in the league, but Rex Ryan is coaching for his job in 2015 and his job is solely tied to wins and losses and if Geno can’t get him wins, he is going to turn to someone who might be able to.

Rex isn’t with the Jets to grow with Geno and build the franchise since Geno isn’t his quarterback and he isn’t John Idzik’s guy. He is leftover from the previous regime and Idzik has obviously wanted him gone and his own coach brought in since he arrived in New York. If the Jets have a losing season, Idzik will get that chance. If Rex plays Vick and Vick wins then Rex saves his job and creates a problem for Idzik since at 34, Vick isn’t the quarterback of the future for the Jets, and if Geno isn’t playing, he certainly isn’t the quarterback of the future either.

The Jets are on 1-yard line of having a five-alarm dilemma on their hands and if you watched the Bears’ receivers abuse the Jets’ secondary at will on Monday night then it looks like Calvin Johnson and company could be the ones to get Michael Vick more than one snap a game.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 over Tampa Bay
Everything I said about the Steelers last week was thrown out the window after they went into Carolina and embarrassed the Panthers on Sunday Night Football. But everything I said about the Buccaneers was correct.

The Tampa Bay bandwagon has been pulled out of service like the New York subway cars with bed bugs and after losing at home to a Rams team quarterbacked by Austin Davis, I think it’s been derailed for the season.

Maybe this is a trap pick since everyone will be on the Steelers already because they are a national team and then they will be on them extra because the Buccaneers gave up 56 points last week, but if it’s a trap, I’m falling for it.

SAN DIEGO -13.5 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars are 0-3 this year and have lost by 17, 31 and 27, so on average they lose by 25. Last season they went 4-12 and lost by an average of 18.5. So if you think the Jaguars are going to lose, which they are, then there’s a very good chance they lose by two touchdowns since 19 of their last 29 losses have come by at least 14 points and that’s before you factor in that they will be flying across the country to face a Chargers team that flew across the country and beat the 2-0 and emotionally-high Bills last week and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions the week before. Good luck to every person who will be teasing this game and also selecting it in their elimination pool.

Philadelphia +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Like, the Packers, the 49ers just aren’t that good. For the last three regular seasons you could have called them the best team in the NFL and no one would have really taken exception with it. But now the 49ers are no longer one of the league’s elite teams. They are a good team, and not a great team, even though I wish they would be a great team this week and beat up on the Eagles, it’s not going to happen.

MINNESOTA +3 over Atlanta
I’m rooting for the Vikings to win this game because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and Sunday won’t be fun for me if I’m sitting next to her rooting against her team that was destroyed by Adrian Peterson’s personal choices. Maybe now that Teddy Bridgewater is playing, the Vikings will throw downfield, which is something Matt Cassel couldn’t do and has never been able to do. When you have Cordarrelle Patterson on your team, you should probably use him.

New Orleans -3 over DALLAS
This pick goes against everything I know and say about the Outside the Superdome Saints, but AT&T Stadium is basically a dome and the Saints have won their last two games there. I trust this pick as much as I trust the Outside the Superdome Saints, but I still trust them more than the Cowboys.

KANSAS CITY +3.5 over New England
Millions of dollars in elimination pools were saved when Derek Carr threw a game-ending interception against the Patriots and millions of dollars in teasers were lost when Tom Brady threw for only 234 yards, one touchdown and forced the Patriots to settle for three field goals against the Raiders. So far this season, the Patriots allowed 33 points to the scoring-challenged Dolphins in a loss, beat up on the Vikings immediately following Adrian Peterson’s suspension, which left the Vikings without a game plan and then had to hang on and have a rookie quarterback in his third career game make an ill-advised throw at the Patriots’ 12 in the final minute to win.

I have long waited for the Patriots to become just another team and even though they haven’t won a Super Bowl in what will be 10 years this season, they have still appeared in two over that time and made another three AFC Championship Games. But the dynasty is finally slowing down and coming to an end. Brady’s protection isn’t what it once was when he could stand like a statue for what seemed like a minute in the pocket, the team has failed to give him proven receivers even though the league has changed its rule to favor offense and overall, he looks like the quarterback who became a starter starting in 2001 and not the one who took over the game starting in 2007.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 21-27-0