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Author: Neil Keefe

BlogsNHL

The Legend of John Scott

If it weren’t for Pacific captain John Scott, I would have watched no more than five minutes on Sunday night. After watching the efforts of the Metropolitan and Atlantic, I wasn’t sticking around if not for Scott.

John Scott

I felt like I was watching a Rangers playoff game during the Pacific vs. Atlantic championship on Sunday night. If there was video of me watching Rangers-Lightning Game 7 in May and video of me watching then NHL All-Star Game championship, a split screen of the two would look like the split screens of Robinson Cano and Rod Carew. For a game with zero meaning other than for the players on the ice wanting their $90,909 winning share, I was pulling for the Pacific and once they took a 1-0 lead, I slowly watched the clock tick away. All of this unnecessary stress and uneasiness for no reason other than John Scott.

If it weren’t for Pacific captain John Scott, I would have watched no more than five minutes of Sunday night’s three games. After watching the Metropolitan and Atlantic put in the worst of efforts in the night’s opening game, there was no way I was sticking around to watch the Western Conference’s two teams “compete” if not for Scott. But the 33-year-old with five goals and six assists in 285 career games kept me around as if a trip to the Cup Final was on the line.

The NHL got its wish. They got their real fans and even casual fans to care about an exhibition game in 2016 that has no significance. But it wasn’t the way they wanted by implementing 3-on-3 play in a tournament format with $1,000,000 going to the winning team as a carrot at the end of the stick to get their multi-millionaire stars to care about competing. It was because they embarrassed themselves in a way only the NHL could thanks to the scum in the league office acting like the scum that they are.

The NHL’s attempt to keep John Scott out of the All-Star Game after he rightfully won a spot and captaincy through their own fan voting system was disgusting. Their plan to force a league-owned franchise in the Coyotes to trade Scott to Montreal and stick him in the AHL to make him ineligible for the game to try to keep an enforcer and non-traditional “All-Star” out of the game was disgusting. The idea that they didn’t that Scott would have to move his wife, who’s pregnant with twins, and two young daughters from Arizona to Newfoundland, or force him to be apart with his about-to-be larger family all to avoid him playing in the All-Star Game was disturbing.

Even though the entire story seems unimaginable and even though Scott’s account of it on The Players’ Tribune seems unfathomable, it shouldn’t be. This is the NHL we’re talking about. The same league that forced a partial-season lockout in 1994-95 and a full-season lockout in 2004-05 and another partial-season lockout in 2012-13. The league has never cared about doing what’s right or taking care of their fans or taking advantage of a great public relations opportunity. They have operated like the Mets at a league level and have remained tone deaf to the hockey world outside of their Avenue of the Americas office. Only the league could make me miss a former Ranger, who played six games for the team four years ago. And only the fans could make sure Scott attended the weekend and only the fans could make a write-in candidate the MVP.

It took pure scum to try to get Scott out of the weekend and to force a trade of him and to ask him to back out of the weekend and to ask him, “Do you think this is something your kids would be proud of?” and to leave him off the MVP ballot during the tournament. So it made sense that the king of all the scum, Gary Bettman, would stand there after championship amid a chorus of boos with that shit-eating grin on his face and shake Scott’s hand and pose with that dirty smile for a photo opportunity while telling Scott, “I’m proud of you.”

Before Bettman could smile about how his poorly-run league backed into a Disney-like story because of his own Joe Thornton-like leadership, John Scott had scored two goals. The first was the first for the Pacific in the tournament, tying the Central at 1 and the second came on a breakaway later in his team’s first game. He had scored twice and sat his former teammate Patrick Kane down before fake fighting the league’s leading scorer after the Blackhawk scored. He had played in front of a sold-out Bridgestone Arena chanting “M-V-P” at him and had the backing of the world’s best players at his side, giving the ultimate eff you to the league even if scumbag Bettman and his band of scum would be the ones who would ultimately benefit of the league’s short-lived publicity. And he had stood on the blue line, as an All-Star Game champion, $90,909 richer and in awe as his name was announced as the tournament MVP with a new pickup truck to go with his trophy.

The only two All-Star Games that have ever stood out to me were 1989-90 when Mario Lemieux scored four goals in Pittsburgh (which I was only three years old for, but relived hundreds of times thanks to the VHS Dynamite on Ice) and 1995-96 when Ray Bourque scored the game-winning goal with 38 seconds left in Boston. Now 2015-16 when John Scott took over the hockey world and then took over in Nashville joins them.

I wonder if his kids are proud of him.

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BlogsGiants

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

The good news is there are still three games to pick to finish the season on a winning note. The better news is I’m 13 games over .500, so no matter what happens in the last three games, the season was still a success.

Peyton Manning

The final four. It’s been four years since the Giants played on this weekend and it’s felt like 40 given what’s gone on with them since they beat the 49ers in San Francisco in January 2012. From the 2-6 finish to the 2012 season to the 0-6 start to the 2013 season to the seven-game losing streak in 2014 to the six last-minute losses in 2015, the Giants have done the exact opposite of what I thought they would do when they won Super Bowl XLVI and started the next season 6-2. The point is you don’t know when you’re going to get back to this round or if you’re ever going to get back, so when you get here, you better win.

So about me wanting to dominate the divisional round picks … (crickets … crickets). By dominating, I must have meant going 0-4 and falling to 2-6 in the playoffs. The good news is there are still three games to pick to finish the season on a winning note and the better news is that I’m 13 games over .500, so no matter what happens in the last three games, the season was still a success.

DENVER +3.5 over New England
I can’t believe I’m in this spot again: rooting against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. Actually, I can. The AFC East was once again a joke, the rest of the AFC wasn’t much better and with the Patriots able to wrap up a first-round bye and then divisional round home game, I’m not sure why I ever think they won’t be in this spot. Since 2001, the only time they haven’t been in the AFC Championship Game was 2002 (missed the playoffs), 2005 (lost to Denver in the divisional round), 2008 (lost Tom Brady for the season in Week 1), 2009 (lost to Baltimore in wild-card round) and 2010 (lost to the Jets in the divisional around). Take out 2008 because of injury and that’s 10 AFC Championship Games in 14 seasons with Tom Brady as the quarterback. Right now, if you were to tell me that Tom Brady will be healthy for all of 2016 then it’s hard not to think the Patriots won’t be back in this game again next season. Now the only thing standing between the Patriots and me drinking heavily to avoid dealing with a Patriots championship a little over two weeks from now is Peyton Manning.

I never thought Brock Osweiler should remain the Broncos’ quarterback when Peyton got healthy and couldn’t understand the people that thought he should. Maybe Osweiler will eventually be a top-tier quarterback, but for anyone who watched him play in Peyton’s absence (or bet on the Broncos during this time), a healthy Osweiler isn’t even close to a barely-hanging-on Manning.

Peyton was horrible in the regular season, but was saved by his defense after years of carrying his team, and his performance last week against the Steelers and one of the worst secondaries in the league wasn’t exactly promising. The greatest passer in the history of the game has been downgraded to game manager and the rapid decline of Peyton’s health and career couldn’t have come at a worse time.

The theme all week has centered around the idea that Peyton will be forced to beat the Patriots deep and he won’t be able to. No one is talking about what the Broncos’ defense is capable of or how special teams could impact the game, but why would they? It’s Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady (kind of) and one’s career is coming to an end and the other’s has no end in sight.

I want Peyton Manning to beat the Patriots, give the Mannings another postseason win against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, go to the Super Bowl, win it and ride off into the sunset as a champion. I want that to happen. But most importantly, I need the Patriots to lose. Let’s take care of the need first and then we can get to the wants.

CAROLINA -3 over Arizona
There is a Regular Season Carson Palmer and a Postseason Carson Palmer, and if you think the near-MVP you saw for 16 weeks was going to be the guy that showed up last week, your bank account can’t be doing too well.

Carson Palmer was bad in the divisional round, but he wasn’t the only one. The Cardinals’ defense was surprisingly bad, and Bruce Arians, managed the clock in the final minutes like he was paying tribute to Tom Coughlin’s 2015 season and installed a defense on the final drive of regulation as if he had bet against his team with the spread. The Cardinals mailed it in in Week 17, had a week off and showed up for their home playoff game as the 2-seed as if it were a preseason game in August. There was nothing to feel good about from the Cardinals and for a team that has historically been embarrassed on the East Coast, they couldn’t have a worse matchup for the NFC Championship Game.

I still don’t believe in the Panthers, even after their 15-1 regular season and even after they ran off a 31-0 halftime lead against the two-time defending NFC champions. But if they win two more games, I will have been wrong all along. I guess even getting to this point shows I was wrong all along. If the Broncos can’t beat the Patriots and they go to Super Bowl 50, the Cardinals aren’t going to beat them, but the Panthers can. In the event the AFC Championship Game doesn’t go the way I want it to, I’m going to need the Panthers to be in San Francisco in two weeks. It’s time to believe in the Panthers.

Last week: 0-4-0
Season: 136-123-5

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BlogsRangers

The Rangers Aren’t Done

Last night at 7 p.m. I put on MSG and oddly enough the Rangers were playing the Canucks. I couldn’t believe it. The Rangers are still playing? Their season isn’t over? The 2015-16 Rangers are still a thing?

J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh

Last night at 7 p.m. I put on MSG and oddly enough the Rangers were playing the Canucks. I couldn’t believe it. The Rangers are still playing? Their season isn’t over? The 2015-16 Rangers are still a thing? I thought the Rangers were done? Luckily, I don’t listen to Larry Brooks or I would have been left watching hours of House Hunters courtesy of my girlfriend and DVR. Instead I got to watch the Rangers’ 3-2 overtime and comeback win over the Canucks.

The Rangers aren’t done. They are done when it comes to winning the Presidents’ Trophy again or being the the 1-seed in the East or winning the Met. They aren’t done when it comes to the only thing that matters: winning the whole effing thing. Do I think the Rangers are going to win the Stanley Cup? No, but I didn’t last year when they were the best team in the league for 82 games. I feel the same way I do about them every year: it’s hard to win the Stanley Cup. It’s so hard that it’s actually insane the Blackhawks have won three of the last six and it’s even more insane they might win it again this year. Like last year, the Eastern Conference is so deep that the Rangers could get knocked out in the first round or go to the Final.

But we’re a long way away from worrying about the Rangers’ first-round opponent or whether or not they will get back to where they were two years ago or revert back to where they were five and six years ago. There are still 36 games left to figure it all out, but most importantly, there are 36 games left for the Rangers to figure themselves out and figure the Capitals out.

On Nov. 3, the Rangers beat the Capitals 5-2 to improve to 8-2-2 on the season. It was their third straight win in what would be a nine-game win streak. At the time, I laughed at the idea that the Capitals would finally overcome the Rangers for the first time since 2010-11. After three straight postseason series losses and years of underachieving, I wasn’t worried that the Capitals would finally live up to their preseason hype and be the best of the East. Less than three weeks later, it all turned for the worse.

It’s actually scary to think the Rangers are third in the East in wins (25) and points (55) despite being four games under .500 over the last two months or half the season. The cushion they built with their nine-game win streak and 16-3-2 start has kept them from falling out of the playoff picture and jockeying for position for a wild-card spot. But the Rangers were never as good as their incredible 21-game start to the season when it seemed like they would never lose and they certainly aren’t as bad as their last 25 games when one-goal deficits felt like they did from 2008-2013. Fortunately, outside of the Capitals, no one else has played especially well or well enough to bury the Rangers for their 25-game sleepwalk and if the Rangers have to settle for the 2- or 3-seed in the Met and we get the inevitable Rangers-Islanders first-round matchup, that’s not such a bad thing.

In his overreaction piece, Brooks said:

The Rangers look slow. They look unsettled. They don’t look like a well-coached team. They look like a playoff-bubble team that will need Henrik Lundqvist to be at the height of his powers every night in order to have a chance to qualify for the playoffs.

He wasn’t saying this at the beginning of the season when the team couldn’t lose. If they play the way they did against the Islanders in a loss last week in Brooklyn, they’ll be fine. They’ll still need Henrik Lundqvist “to be at the height of his power every night” not only to get in the playoffs, but once they get there. We already knew that. We’ve known that since 2005. The 2015-16 Rangers aren’t the 2013-14 Rangers and they’re not the 2014-15 Rangers either, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Neither of those teams finished the job either.

When I went to Boston the day after Thanksgiving for the Rangers-Bruins Black Friday matinee, the Rangers were coming off a 5-1 loss to the Canadiens, but had still won 13 of their last 16. They blew the Black Friday game with some help from the officials and then lost the next day to the Flyers. In four days, the Rangers matched their loss total for the entire season and were outscored 12-4 in the three losses. Since that loss to the Canadiens, the Rangers are 9-13-3 with their last back-to-back wins coming on Nov. 21 and 23.

I thought the Rangers would turn it around when they beat Carolina on Nov. 30, but they didn’t. I thought they would turn it around when they beat Ottawa on Dec. 6, but they didn’t. I thought they would turn it around when they beat Edmonton on Dec. 15, but they didn’t. I thought they would turn it around when they beat Anaheim on Dec. 22 or when the finally beat Tampa Bay on Dec. 30. Nope and nope. And they didn’t turn it around after their wins over Dallas on Jan. 5 or Boston on Jan. 11 or Philadelphia on Jan. 16. It hasn’t happened. So I’m hopeful that Tuesday’s win over Vancouver will be the start of something.

Mats Zuccarello shot back at Brooks on Tuesday night when he said, “We’ve got to show that Zed’s not dead” after the Rangers’ win. The Rangers aren’t done. Far from it.

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BlogsYankees

The State of Brian Cashman: January Edition

As usual, when Brian Cashmans talks, I listen and then react to answers, and I did once again following his most recent comments on the state of the Yankees on YES’ Hot Stove show.

Brian Cashman

It’s Day 19 of the 60-Day Gauntlet, which is what I refer to as the 60 days in January and February. (Well, 60 this year.) With the Giants’ season not reaching the playoffs for the fourth straight year and the Rangers having last won back-to-back games on Nov. 21 and 23 and the first real snowstorm of the season expected this Saturday, the Gauntlet is in full effect. The hope for March and spring training and Yankees baseball and eventually Opening Day and spring feels like a lost cause when the temperature is single digits outside, while my other sports teams fail to pick up the slack.

Luckily, Brian Cashman was a guest on YES’ Hot Stove show this week to talk about the Yankees to give Yankees fans their winter fix. As usual, when Brian Cashmans talks, I listen and then react to answers, and I did once again following his most recent comments on the state of the Yankees.

(Thanks to Yankees beat writer Chad Jennings of The Journal News and the LoHud Yankees Blog and guest of the Keefe To The City Podcast for transcribing and posting Cashman’s quotes.)

On Starlin Castro backing up third base.

“That would be ideal. One of the exciting upsides to the Castro acquisition would be that he played shortstop. He was athletic enough to play shortstop. That’s the left side of the infield. He’s got the arm, he’s got the athleticism, that a transition to third should be in the cards. It doesn’t guarantee it, but we saw him play second and play second so well down the stretch there with the Cubs, and we will definitely take a look at him at third.”

Unfortunately, Chase Headley is going to be a Yankee this year … and next year … and the year after that. If Castro could be a full-time third baseman, I would be all for putting Castro at third and Rob Refsnyder at second and not having an automatic out in the lineup. There’s no reason Castro couldn’t be a full-time third baseman either. He was a shortstop and seamlessly transitioned to second, so he clearly has the athleticism needed to play third. He might not have the stereotypical power that the Yankees are used to at third, but neither does Headley. The only hope here is that Headley hits this year and doesn’t make an error per series. That would be nice for a $13 million player.

“If Castro can do that, it gives us so much more flexibility with that 25th man on the roster. (At times) the 25th man could very well be a 13th pitcher. As we all know, our starting rotation isn’t seven, eight, nine-inning pitchers on a consistent basis, so having maybe the access to that 13th up-and-down guy or maybe an extra position player that you can utilize in a different way. I think that’s vitally important to the weekly basis of how we can align based on the circumstances at the time.”

To say the starting rotation isn’t seven- or eight- or nine-inning pitchers on a consistent basis is the biggest understatement of all time. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia each has one complete game last year. Nathan Eovaldi has never pitched a complete game in his 106 career starts and Luis Severino has pitched seven innings in the majors once. This is why Cashman traded for Aroldis Chapman and why it would be a mistake to trade Andrew Miller. There’s a very real possibility the trio of Dellin Betances, Miller and Chapman could get the Yankees 12 outs in crucial games, which would mean the rotation would need to go just five innings. Six strong innings with this bullpen would be the perfect formula for the 2016 Yankees.

On the 25th roster spot serving as the Scranton Express for a different reliever nearly every day, let’s hope Joe Girardi doesn’t decide to use the 25th man to face Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in the eighth inning of a tie game.

On the plan for Greg Bird.

“I think more likely he’ll start at Scranton. But as we experienced last year, there’s a lot of injuries that come our way and it’s nice to have Greg Bird waiting in the wings. … If that situation with roster occurs where Castro can swing over (to be the backup at third base and shortstop), it gives us the opportunity if we’re facing a scenario (against some right-handed pitchers) where we can have (Bird) up to spell Tex for a day.”

The idea that the last year of Mark Teixeira’s disastrous contract is stunting the growth of Greg Bird as an everyday player in the majors is incredible. Bird hit .261/.343/.529 in 46 games with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 178 plate appearances and is more than ready to be the Yankees’ first baseman, but as long as Teixeira is healthy, Bird is going to be in Triple-A. While I’m upset about this, I’m not that upset because there’s a 100 percent chance Teixeira gets hurt this season. Whether it’s his wrist or leg or pinky or hamstring or getting light-headed or having tired legs, Teixeira is going to miss games and end up on the disabled list at least once. I’ve looked, but Las Vegas doesn’t even have odds on Teixeira getting hurt the same way they don’t post a money line for Duke vs. Central Connecticut in basketball. In the last four seasons, Teixeira has played 123 games (2012), 15 games (2013), 123 games (2014) and 111 games (2015). It’s not a matter of if Teixeira and if Bird will get his chance this season, it’s a matter of when.

“Tex is significantly younger than Alex. I fully expect Tex to be the same (as last season). Alex, at this stage in his career, you just don’t know (what to expect).”

Mark Teixeira will be 36 on April 11. A-Rod will be 41 on July 27. That is significantly younger, especially in baseball years, but with A-Rod coming off a full season, having been able to rest for the entire 2014 season and now being a full-time DH, I actually think A-Rod plays younger than Teixeira. The idea that Cashman believes more in Teixeira to have the same season when his health is constantly in question over A-Rod, who only needs to worry about hitting, is weird. I fully expect A-Rod to be the same as last season. Teixeira, at this stage in his career, you just don’t know.

On last year’s second-half decline of Jacoby Ellsbury.

“I think when (Ellsbury) came back, the best explanation that makes sense from all parties involved was that, although the knee physically got healed, he developed bad mechanics and mentally not necessarily trusting 100 percent and so never got back in rhythm.”

Ah, my favorite topic: Jacoby Ellsbury. The Thief and the fraud of all frauds. It was nice of Ellsbury to tweet a video of him working out last week as a way to plant the idea in Yankees fans’ minds that he is going to be stronger and healthier this season. To refresh your memory: Ellsbury is owed $21.1 million this year … and next year … and the year after that … and the year after that … and the year after that … and there’s a $21 million club option with a $5 million buyout on him for 2021. (That $5 million is now a guarantee.) It’s nice that Ellsbury has Cashman to make excuses for him since I’m still waiting to hear his excuse for giving Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal when they didn’t need him and didn’t need to outbid themselves for him on a market that hadn’t even developed.

In two years, Ellsbury has played 260 games and hit .265/.324./.387 with 23 home runs and 103 RBIs, which is what many thought he would do in one season playing his home games in Yankee Stadium with his swing. He went 0-for-1 in his only postseason at-bat in the Wild-Card Game after starting the game on the bench. Ellsbury has been the worst contract in the history of the Yankees through two seasons and the only way that’s going to change is if Cashman’s analysis is right and Ellsbury couldn’t return to being the same player he was before he went on the disabled list. I’m not holding my breath.

On last year’s second-half decline of Brett Gardner.

“… (Gardner) is a lot like Derek Jeter. He does not tell you if anything’s bothering him at all. He makes us a little bit like veterinarians at times, trying to have to guess what’s going on. … The only thing we have to probably learn more so than not (with Gardner) is just to kind of trust what we’re seeing on the field. And if it’s not the normal performance, back off.”

When my dog won’t eat, I know he either doesn’t feel good or needs to go to the bathroom. If he won’t eat a treat, same thing. If he won’t play, same thing. It’s pretty easy. When Brett Gardner hits .258 over 1,292 plate appearances and steals 67 bases over his last 460 games over four seasons, it’s not because of some mysterious injury and it certainly doesn’t take a veterinarian-like approach to figure out what’s wrong. The diagnosis is that Brett Gardner just isn’t very good and certainly isn’t as good as the Yankees think he is.

I will never understand why the Yankees gave Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal when they already had an identical player in Gardner on the team: a streaky left-handed hitter with speed, who relies on his legs to be successful. I have long said that Gardner is the streakiest hitter in Major League Baseball, but if he is No. 1 then Ellsbury is 1-A. There was never a need for the two of them on the same team and when their cold streaks happen at the same time, well you get the type of collapse the Yankees had in the AL East over the last two months of the season.

Gardner should have been traded this offseason, especially after the Yankees acquired Aaron Hicks, and maybe he still will be. There’s no need for Ellsbury and Gardner on the same roster and since no team is going to take on Ellsbury’s contract (though I’m holding out hope), Gardner should be the odd man out.

On the emergence of Gary Sanchez.

“I think a year ago, the light bulb went on where he really cares about the end result. He’s hungry for a big career, not just being a part of anything. … He’s always had the (offensive) thunder there, but the defense is coming along so much that it gave us the opportunity to move John Ryan Murphy.”

“He’s a middle-of-the-lineup caliber future bat potential with a tick below Pudge Rodriguez type arm and much improved framing. … He’s an interesting upside player, there’s no doubt about it.”

It seems like Cashman wanted to somehow touch on nearly all of his bad free-agent signings following the 2013 season. The Yankees never needed Brian McCann. At the time, catcher was their deepest position of strength with Francisco Cervelli, Austin Romine, John Ryan Murphy and Gary Sanchez. The trade for McCann eventually sent Cervelli to Pittsburgh where he hit .295/.370/.401 last season as the everyday catcher for the 98-win Pirates. McCann’s five-year deal has also now seen Murphy get traded to Minnesota and Gary Sanchez stuck as his back-up for at least the next three seasons. Sure, none of the Yankees’ internal options would have given the Yankees 49 home runs over the last two seasons, but it would have also saved them from a .232 average and .303 on-base percentage. Like Ellsbury, McCann isn’t going anywhere, so the Gary Sanchez era will have to wait until 2019 (unless like Teixeira an injury comes into play). If Sanchez is as good as Cashman claims he is, well that just sucks.

On the uncertain rotation.

“It did force us to entertain and float a lot of weather balloons on players that have significant interest to us, whether it was Brett Gardner or Andrew Miller.

“There’s definitely a lot of question marks. We certainly approached the winter trying to find ways to improve the rotation if possible. Nothing took place because nothing presented themselves as an opportunity to pull down. So, we move forward. That’s why the strengthening of the bullpen turned out to be so important for us with Aroldis Chapman’s addition.”

Trade Brett Gardner? Yes. Trade Andrew Miller? Absolutely not. The Yankees can afford to get rid of Gardner even if it gets them a middle-to-back-end rotation option. The Yankees can only afford to get rid of Miller if they somehow get a front-end starter in return, which a setup man/closer isn’t going to get you.

The Yankees’ current rotation is Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia with Ivan Nova and Bryan Mitchell as the next two in line should an injury present itself. It’s not the best rotation in baseball, but it doesn’t have to be with Betances, Miller and Chapman. Even as shaky as that lineup not only looks on paper, but also in real life, it’s still probably the best rotation in the AL East, which is all it has to be.

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Blogs

NFL Divisional Round Picks

After watching four road teams win on Wild-Card Weekend, I don’t know what to think heading into the divisional round. Following a 2-2 week to open the playoffs, it’s time to dominate the divisional round.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

Well, last week sucked. My time as an honorary Vikings fan came to a devastating end with a missed 27-yard field goal attempt, which left my girlfriend, who is actually a Vikings fan, crushed. The Bengals left me in disbelief after leaving me with a push on a +2 wager (thankfully, they were +3 for the picks column) after back-to-back 15-yard penalties gave the Steelers a win on Wild-Card Weekend. The Chiefs ran back the opening kick for a touchdown and never looked back, making everyone question Brian Hoyer as an NFL starting quarterback in the process. The Redskins’ Cinderella story from favorite to finish last in the NFC East to NFC East champion turned back into a pumpkin in their embarrassing loss at home. And when it comes to which team I should be rooting for with the Giants not in the playoffs, my No. 1, 3, 5 and 6 teams were eliminated. I thought the playoffs were supposed to be fun.

This weekend is largely considered the best weekend of the NFL season. The top eight teams remain with two games on Saturday, so football junkies and degenerates don’t have to wait as long to get their fix, and two more on Sunday. It’s the last real weekend of football with just three games remaining after Sunday night before the winter gauntlet takes full effect until March Madness. After watching four road teams win on Wild-Card Weekend, I don’t know what to think heading into the divisional round with the Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos and Patriots coming off their byes. Following a 2-2 week to open the playoffs, it’s time to dominate the divisional round picks.

Kansas City +5 over NEW ENGLAND
A lot of my friends have told me they think the Chiefs will beat the Patriots this weekend. While it’s a nice idea and a good dream to have, it’s likely just that: an idea or a dream. The Patriots have lost three home playoff games in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. They lost to the Ravens on Wild-Card Weekend in 2009, they lost to the Jets in the divisional round in 2010 and they lost to the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game in 2012. They have won their other 14 home games since the 2001 playoffs and the only reason they have played just 17 home playoff games in 14 years is that they nearly always have a first-round bye.

The Chiefs did rout the Patriots last year with a 41-14 Week 4 win, which led Trent Dilfer to say the Patriots aren’t good anymore, which led the Patriots to go on a seven-game winning streak and finish the season 10-2 and earn the No. 1 seed and go on to win their fourth Super Bowl. But that game came at Arrowhead Stadium, where despite opening 43 years ago, has rivaled the 13-year-old CenturyLink Field and it’s modern made-for-noise structure in Seattle for sound levels. The Chiefs aren’t going to have 76,416 fans backing them to get the Patriots’ offense off their game this time and they aren’t going to have Jamaal Charles, who had three touchdowns in that game, this time either, but what they will have is their defense.

There are two ways to beat the Patriots. The first is to hope that Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski aren’t in the lineup. The second is to get to Tom Brady. Since it looks like both Edelman and Gronkowski will be playing this weekend, the Chiefs will have to turn to No. 2, and they’re more than capable of it. Get to Tom Brady and get to the AFC Championship Game. Let’s Go Chiefs!

ARIZONA -7 over Green Bay
The Cardinals are going to be the NFC champions. Since we know that then that means they beat the Packers this weekend. Since we know they are going to beat the Packers this weekend, it’s pretty fair to say they are going to easily cover the touchdown they are giving.

It was just three weeks ago that Cardinals beat the Packers 38-8 in Arizona in a game the Packers thought they had to have at the time to help them reach the postseason. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times and returned two of his fumbles for touchdowns. The following week, the Packers lost to the Vikings with the NFC North title and a first-round home game on the line before beating the Redskins on the road last week. The difference between the Redskins and the Cardinals and Vikings was their lack of a pass rush and when Rodgers had time, he was able to find James Jones, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams enough to win. He won’t have that time this weekend and will have the least amount of time he’s had all season.

Normally, I wouldn’t feel confident about backing a Carson Palmer-led team giving a touchdown in the playoffs since normally I wouldn’t trust Palmer to tell me what day of the week it is, but it’s different for Palmer now. Even though he might be a fraudulent quarterback at times, under Bruce Arians with weapons like Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and David Johnson, not even Palmer ruins the Cardinals’ chances this weekend or possibly any weekend for the rest of the season. The Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl unless Carson Palmer screws it up for them.

Seattle +2 over CAROLINA
After my time as an honorary 12 last season ended when Pete Carroll ruined the Super Bowl and gave the Patriots a championship, I swore I would never root for the Seahawks again (unless they played the Patriots in the Super Bowl). And even though I’m not necessarily rooting for them this weekend to win, I’m picking them because teams don’t win the way the Seahawks did last week and then not go on a run.

The Seahawks 10-9 win over the Vikings was completely undeserved. The Seahawks did nothing to make Blair Walsh miss a 27-yard field goal attempt. All they did before that was let Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense drive down the field from their own 39 to the Seahawks’ 17 before the missed try. The Seahawks’ offense for the game was a Doug Baldwin touchdown that came after a botched snap that led to his a ridiculous first-down conversion and big play for the Seahawks and a field goal that was the result of an Adrian Peterson fumble. The Vikings should be playing this weekend in Arizona.

The Seahawks seem to get the lucky bounces and big breaks that come along with being a good team. The parlay of events they had to hit in order to win the NFC Championship Game last year was incredible; the miraculous catch Jermaine Kearse made on their final drive in the Super Bowl would have been talked about forever if Marshawn Lynch is handed the ball on the goal line; the missed chip shot, which was six yards less than an extra point. Things seem to go the Seahawks’ way except for when their head coach makes the worst decision in the history of sports.

The Panthers were 15-1 this season, 8-0 at home, had a week off to get healthy and beat the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 6. The Panthers only being a two-point favorite at home given their season and success against the Seahawks on the road in the hardest place to play in the league is unusual. But I have never been a big fan of the Panthers this season even though they went 15-1, came within a touchdown of going undefeated and had eight wins by double digits. I still don’t know how a team with Ted Ginn Jr. and Jerricho Cotchery as their No. 1 and 2 receivers went 15-1, and have thought all along that would catch up with them at some point in the playoffs. Unfortunately, that point is now.

DENVER -9 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers shouldn’t have won last week against the Bengals, but like the Seahawks, they were given an enormous break. Between the Jeremy Hill fumble and the Bengals allowing Ben Roethlisberger to make his way down the field with his right shoulder in bad shape and then the 15-yard penalties on Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones, the Steelers were gifted a trip to the divisional round. But without Antonio Brown, their season is going to come to an end in Denver, and it would have even with Antonio Brown.

This is the Peyton Manning postseason. This should be Manning’s last games in the NFL and it would be perfect for him to go out as a Super Bowl champion after beating Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, Tom Brady and the Patriots and probably the Cardinals on his way to riding off into the sunset as a champion. With the Vikings eliminated, the Broncos are now my No. 1 rooting interest in the playoffs. Even though Peyton winning a second Super Bowl would tie him with Eli in the only category that Eli has him beat, it would mean he would have beat the Patriots again to get it, and that’s a fair trade.

Last week: 2-2-0
Season: 136-119-5

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