It took the Yankees one game to give home-field advantage back to the Astros. One lousy game in which the Yankees left nine on against the best pitcher in baseball.
Trailing by one run in the bottom of the first inning in Game 3, DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge both reached on back-to-back singles. Then Brett Gardner came up instead of Gleyber Torres and the Yankees lost the game right then.
Despite the 22-year-old’s budding superstar status, his historical regular season and his performance in the ALDS, for which I gave him the ALDS MVP, Torres batted fifth in Game 5. Aaron Boone and the analytics department, or whoever creates the lineup, finally rewarded him after two seasons of production by batting him third in Games 1 and 2 in Houston, and he went 4-for-10 with a double, home run and five RBIs. But for Game 3, Torres was back batting fifth, with Gardner inexplicably batting third. Boone was asked about this egregious decision after the game, and here was his answer:
“I mean, I was just, we had a few more lefties, so spacing our lefties out. Lineup-wise, we switch it a lot based on who we have in there. With Hicks being in there and having a third lefty, just kind of getting some spacing within our lineup is all. I actually think Gleyber hit sixth the first game if I’m not mistaken.”
That answer answered nothing. Boone fumbled around his words with a combination of “I mean” and “you know” and “um” as he searched for a BS answer he could pass off as acceptable. But nothing about the decision to bat Torres fifth was acceptable, and nothing was analytical, reasonable or logical. And Boone was mistaken, Torres batted third in the first and second games of the series, not sixth.
When facing Gerrit Cole, you might only get one chance to get to him. The Yankees ended up getting multiple chances, failing in every single one of them, but the first inning ended up being their best chance of the game. Instead of facing the red-hot Torres (oh I forgot, the Yankees don’t believe in every being hot or cold), Cole retired Gardner on two pitches and slumping Edwin Encarnacion on one pitch. Torres walked against the eventual Cy Young winner with two outs and then the also-slumping Didi Gregorius ended the inning, swinging at the first pitch of his at-bat after four straight balls to Torres.
Against Cole, Torres walked on four pitches, struck out swinging in a nine-pitch battle and walked on eight pitches, as all three of his at-bats came with two outs. Once Cole was out of the game, Torres hit a home run, his second of the series and third of the postseason against the submarine-throwing, right-handed specialist Joe Smith. So the only time in the game Torres was retired was when he lost that nine-pitch at-bat to Cole, which ended in a strikeout to the pitcher with the most strikeouts in the game since Randy Johnson in 2002.
While the decision to move Torres down in the order for no reason was the most egregious of the game, it wasn’t the only thing that led to a Yankees’ loss. Luis Severino labored through yet another postseason start, and after throwing four scoreless innings against the Twins and having to get out of multiple jams to do, he once again found himself pitching out of the stretch in four of the five innings he pitched in on Tuesday. Severino allowed to long solo home runs to Jose Altuve and Josh Reddick and put eight baserunners on in 4 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the slumping offense and Cole were too much for the Yankees to overcome the early hole Severino put them in.
Adam Ottavino also wasn’t good, and he has been the worst member of the postseason roster. He has now faced 10 batters in the series and six of them have reached base. He was unable to retire George Springer for a second straight game and was unable to record an out at all against Springer and Altuve in the seventh. His latest egg eventually turned into two insurance runs for the Astros, not that they would even need them though with Torres providing the Yankees’ lone run of the game in the eighth.
As for the offense, outside of LeMahieu, Judge and Torres, who again should all be batting consecutively, there’s no one to feel good about when they’re at the plate right now. Gardner and Encarnacion are both down to .200 with a .579 and .606 OPS respectively, Gregorius is at .227 and his OPS also isn’t good at .655 and is only even that high because of his grand slam in Game 2 of the ALDS, Sanchez has two singles in the entire postseason and isn’t having good at-bats in this series like he did in the previous series with his OPS looking like it’s missing the “O” and the “P” at .335 and Gio Urshela has been as bad as Gardner and Encarnacion. The Yankees are trying to beat the 107-win Astros with three productive batters and six near-automatic outs in their lineup. If not for Masahiro Tanaka and Torres in Game 1, the Yankees would be playing an elimination game in Game 4.
All season I was worried about two things in the postseason: Boone screwing everything up like he did last October and the lineup disappearing like it did in Games 6 and 7 of the 2017 ALCS and Games 3 and 4 of the 2018 ALDS. Well, Boone is starting to screw things up, and the offense has scored in two of the last 20 innings.
It took the Yankees one game to give home-field advantage back to the Astros. One lousy game in which the Yankees left nine on against the best pitcher in baseball. The Astros trailed in this series after one lousy game of their own and rebounded to win the next two to put the pressure back on the Yankees. Now it’s the Yankees’ turn to answer and rebound from 15 straight embarrassing innings since Judge’s two-run home run off Justin Verlander in the fourth inning of Game 2.
It’s a guarantee the nonsensical decision to bat Torres fifth will be rectified for Game 4 and he will be back hitting third where he did to open the series in Houston. It should also be a guarantee that the entire lineup should be adjusted. The Yankees need to find their offense and they have to find it in the next game. If the Yankees’ offensive trend continues the way it has since that Judge home run, they won’t have to worry about trying to win a game or games in Houston later in the series because the series won’t make it back there.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
It’s hard to feel good coming off a loss, but the Yankees should recognize it’s the Astros who should feel down after giving away the home-field advantage.
The Yankees’ goal for the first two games of the ALCS in Houston was to win one game. Win one game and get home-field advantage, and then do what the 2017 Yankees did against the Astros in New York. As soon as Game 1 ended, the Yankees had done enough in Houston, but they were very close to doing much more.
The Yankees and every Yankees fan would have signed up for a tie game with Justin Verlander out of the game in Game 2. Verlander was always going to pitch well at home on regular rest, so getting him out of a 2-2 game was the best-case scenario for Game 2. Verlander was good, but not great on Sunday. He caught some breaks with high-exit-velocity rockets right at fielders and the great play by Carlos Correa to throw DJ LeMahieu at home on the Brett Gardner single. Verlander wasn’t as dominant as he has been against the Yankees at times in the four other postseason series the Yankees have played against him, and the Yankees had more than enough chances to take a 2-0 series lead.
Theoretically, the Yankees had the Astros right where they wanted them with the game tied, Verlander done and a battle of the bullpens for the remainder of the game. But James Paxton’s lack of length put the Yankees at a disadvantage, needing to use their elite options beginning in the third, while the Astros didn’t have to turn to their bullpen until the seventh.
It turns out my lack of trust in James Paxton, despite how he finished the regular season, was for a reason. Paxton was bad in the Game 1 of the ALDS and he was even worse on Sunday, unable to throw a first-pitch strike, get outs or give the team any length. His line this October: 7 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, 2 HR, 5.14 ERA, 1.714 WHIP. Paxton has put his team in early holes in both games, needing the offense to come back each time he has been in the mound. Thankfully, the Yankees have their deep bullpen to save Paxton like they were asked to do did in Game 2.
The decision to remove Paxton with two on and two outs in the third was the best decision Aaron Boone has made as Yankees manager. A year ago, he would have waited until both runners scored before going to his bullpen, but this season he has been quick to go to his bullpen and rightfully so. Paxton clearly didn’t have it and he wasn’t going to find it until the Yankees trailed by multiple runs. Boone sensing the urgency to keep the deficit manageable against Verlander went to Chad Green. Even though Boone is much older than me, I feel like a proud father watching him grow up right before my very eyes.
Green was awesome. He got the team out of Paxton’s jam and pitched two perfect innings, throwing 21 of 26 pitches for strikes. He was cruising when Boone removed him from the game in the fifth, but it wasn’t necessarily the wrong move. If he leaves Green in for Springer and Springer hits a home run, Boone is going to get ripped for not going to Adam Ottavino or Tommy Kahnle with Green having pitched two full innings. The move wasn’t wrong, it just didn’t work out.
The first pitch Ottavino threw in relief of Green was a middle-middle, flat slider which Springer hammered for a game-tying home run. It sucked, but it’s hard to get on Boone for the move or anyone in the Yankees’ bullpen for their performance when they’re being asked to pitch 6 2/3 innings and get 19 of 27 outs against this Astros lineup. The Astros were more than likely going to score, it just happened on the first pitch Ottavino threw. That’s the problem with getting no length from your starter and using so many relievers in the same game: you need all of them to be on on the same night. Ottavino wasn’t and the game was tied.
The only issue was that by time he came out of the game, the Yankees were already on their third of five elite relievers. Tommy Kahnle was in the game after Green and Ottavino were already used, and the Astros had yet to go to their top relievers, while the Yankees had already used the majority of theirs. If the game was going to continue, the Yankees were going to have to use some-less-than-stellar options to get outs.
The game did continue. The Yankees couldn’t do anything against the Astros’ bullpen, putting together three-minute innings, while the Astros made the Yankees’ bullpen work for every out in what felt like 30-minute innings. Boone only went to Zack Britton for one inning (12 pitches) and Aroldis Chapman for one inning (25 pitches), so after nine innings, the Yankees were out of elite options. It took CC Sabathia, Jonathan Loaisiga and J.A. Happ to miraculosly escape a 10th-inning jam, and it certainly felt like if the Yankees didn’t score in the 11th, it would take a second straight miracle inning to see the 12th.
After two quick outs by Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion walked and Gardner singled. Gary Sanchez came up with a chance to be the Game 2 hero and give the Yankees a lead, and it seemed like he might after working a 10-pitch at-bat, but he eventually struck out looking on a pitch which was nowhere near the zone. That was the game.
As expected with the left-handed, fastball-throwing Happ on the mound in the 10th against a right-handed heavy, fastball-crushing lineup, Correa ended the game on the first pitch of the 11th with a solo home run to right field. Game over, series tied.
Even though the Yankees accomplished what they wanted in Houston by winning a game, it could have been much more with one more timely hit. It’s hard to feel good coming off a loss, but the Yankees and Yankees fans should recognize it’s the Astros who should feel down after giving away the home-field advantage they won over the Yankees in the regular season.
If the next three games go the way they did two years ago, the Astros won’t get their home-field advantage back, and won’t play another game in Houston this season. It’s a lofty goal, but it’s the next goal: end the series in New York.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka the ball in Game 1 of the ALCS and he gave them six brilliant innings in Houston.
I spent the entire regular season worrying about the Yankees not getting home-field advantage in the postseason for a possible ALCS against the Astros. After what happened in the 2017 ALCS, I didn’t want the Yankees to be eliminated because they couldn’t score or win in Houston again or because they couldn’t beat Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole on the road. The Rays made sure the Yankees wouldn’t have to see Verlander and Cole on the road in the first two games of the series, and now, after Game 1, the Yankees have home-field advantage. They have it because of Masahiro Tanaka and Gleyber Torres.
Throughout the season, I wanted Masahiro Tanaka to be the Yankees’ Game 1 starter in the postseason. That was until Luis Severino returned. Then I wanted Severino to be the Game 1 starter. But when Aaron Boone announced (and tried to say it was his idea) Masahiro Tanaka as the Game 1 starter for the ALCS, I was delighted. I know James Paxton has dominated the Astros in his career (aside from April of this season), but I have always trusted Tanaka much more than Paxton, and the ALDS only helped to further grow that trust.
After Game 2 of the ALDS, I wrote:
There was a lot of concern and a lack of trust for Tanaka entering the postseason because of another inconsistent regular season (though his numbers were marred by two awful starts) and because his 1.80 career postseason ERA was being attributed by many as luck. His postseason career FIP was in line with his regular-season career FIP, and therefore, his much lower ERA was being called a result of luck. It couldn’t be because Tanaka is a much different pitcher in the biggest games. It couldn’t be because Tanaka thrives on the postseason stage, never having allowed more than two earned runs in a postseason start. It had to be because of luck.
And:
I’m not sure how many impressive postseason starts it will take Tanaka for Yankees fans to unanimously accept he’s a different pitcher in October, or maybe he will just continue to be the luckiest postseason pitcher of all time.
Can we all unanimously accept Tanaka is different in October? His postseason success can’t be attributed to luck or a small sample size. Not when he’s the first postseason pitcher in history to allow two earned runs or less in each of his first seven postseason starts. Not when he’s shut down the record-setting 2017 Indians, eventual champion 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox, the top home run-hitting team in history 2019 Twins and now these 2019 Astros, who have played like the 1998 Yankees at MinuteMaid Park. Tanaka rises to the occasion in the postseason, and you only have to compare his regular-season stats to his postseason stats to measure what many believe can’t be measured: Tanaka is clutch.
Tanaka one-hit the Astros. One-hit! A team which bats Carlos Correa seventh, is the best home team in baseball and has otherworldly offensive numbers in Houston was completely shut down. The Astros barely threatened in two of Tanaka’s six innings, were behind in counts all night and produced off-balance swings in nearly every at-bat. It was a masterful performance by a pitcher who continues to turn in masterful performances in the postseason. Tanaka provided the Yankees with length and kept the Astros off the board and let Gleyber Torres carry the offense.
Nearly every TV graphic this season to show how good Torres has been has included Mickey Mantle. Torres is a superstar, and at age 22, he’s either the Yankees’ best player or he’s very close to becoming heir best player. After winning Games 1 and 3 of the ALDS and earning my ALDS MVP honors, Torres was somehow even better in Game 1 of the ALCS. Torres was promoted to the 3-hole for the ALCS and responded by giving the Yankees a 1-0 lead with an RBI double in the fourth, adding on to that lead with a solo home run in the sixth, driving in two runs with a single in the seventh and providing an insurance run with an RBI groundout in the ninth. It was a 3-for-5 night with a double, home run and five RBIs, as he’s now driven in nine runs in four games this postseason. There were more graphics comparing him to Mickey Mantle on Saturday, and those comparisons aren’t going to go away if he keeps hitting like this.
I wasn’t as nervous for Game 1 of the ALCS as I was during the ALCS two years ago or as nervous as I thought I would be or maybe should have been. Tanaka and Torres helped calm those nerves and now I’m not nervous at all. In order to win the pennant, the Yankees had to prove they could win in Houston, and they did. Now they have home-field advantage, are going back to New York no worse than tied in the series, and if they can solve and beat Verlander on Sunday night, they can put these Astros in a position they’ve never been with the series moving to New York.
Four down, seven to go.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
The Giants’ only goal this season is back to what it was prior to the season, and what it’s really been all along. That goal is to get Daniel Jones experience and improve the defense.
After losing to the Cowboys and Bills to open the season, if the Giants really wanted to have any chance at the postseason this season (even though they never really had a chance), they would have had to beat the Vikings on Sunday or pull off the most improbably of upsets (given their defense) over the Patriots on Thursday. The Giants scored 10 points and let Kirk Cousins of all quarterbacks do whatever he wanted against them in an 18-point loss Sunday, and now they will play the Patriots on the road in a short week without Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram. Eli Manning should feel lucky to be on the sideline for this one.
The Giants’ only goal this season is back to what it was prior to the season, and what it’s really been all along outside of the one calendar-week window where back-to-back wins gave the team and its fans the slightest idea of a miracle season ending with a postseason berth. That goal is to get Daniel Jones experience and improve the defense. The first part of the goal is going well, the second part, not so well. The defense is going to have its work cut out for them on Thursday Night Football against Tom Brady and the undefeated Patriots, and if the Giants have so far let Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Jamies Winston and Cousins put up video game-like numbers against them in the first half alone, what is Brady going to do against them?
I’m happy the Giants are playing on an off day for the Yankees, but I’m not happy it’s this game that’s being played.
(Home team in caps)
NEW ENGLAND -17 over New York Giants The Giants will be without their all-world running back, No. 1 wide receiver and possibly the league’s top tight end. I have no idea how they’re going to score points to cover against this Patriots team and Patriots defense, which looks like the Patriots’ defense from the early years of the Brady era. Unlike some of the Patriots’ other opponents, the Giants don’t have a defense capable of scoring a touchdown for a backdoor cover, and after putting up only 10 points at home against a lesser opponent in the Vikings, scoring 10 on Thursday would be a lot.
Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY (in London) Finally, some Sunday morning football, so if I wake up hungover at 7 a.m. on Sunday I will have something to watch when I can’t fall back asleep. The Panthers are 4-0 when Kyle Allen starts since his first start last season, and since that start, the Panthers are 0-9 when Cam Newton starts. There shouldn’t even be a quarterback controversy for the Panthers. Allen is better.
BALTIMORE -11 over Cincinnati The Bengals are 0-5 and tied with the Redskins for the worst record in the league. I don’t expect either to finish as the worst team in the league (that honor goes to the Dolphins), but now that the Bengals are 0-5, they have to be thinking about what their future could look like with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback. That has to scares the Dolphins and their fans.
Seattle -1.5 over CLEVELAND The Browns suck. People were actually picking them to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl because … I have no idea? The idea the Browns were going to be one of the top teams in the league because Baker Mayfield is now in his second year or because they traded for Odell Beckham was preposterous. The Browns have now suffered two losses of at least 28 points in the first five weeks of the season, and now have Seattle at home before their bye, and then road games at New England and Denver. The Browns might be improved from the Browns we have come to know, but they’re an eight-win team at best.
New Orleans +1 over JACKSONVILLE The Saints are 3-0 when Teddy Bridgewater starts. I wonder how Vikings fans feel about that. Actually, I know since my wife is a Vikings fan and she isn’t happy about it. Jets fans can’t be happy either after they traded away Bridgewater for nothing to the Saints prior to last season and then could have used him to stay afloat over the last four weeks this season. Instead, he’s helping the Saints stay afloat until Drew Brees can come back, and he’s building himself up for a nice payday and a starting job somewhere in 2020.
KANSAS CITY -4.5 over Houston I watched the Colts lose to the Raiders two weeks ago and everything I thought I knew about this Colts team was erased. But then the Colts went out on Sunday Night Football this past week and won on the road in Kansas City, where no visiting team wins, further proving each week of the NFL season needs to be evaluated as a one-week season. Nothing about this sport and the result make sense and it’s absolutely ridiculous that I or anyone wager money on it. It’s just so fun not to.
Washington -3.5 over MIAMI If FOX isn’t calling this the Tua Bowl on Sunday then what’s the point of anything? The two worst teams in the league going head-to-head and one will come out with a win they certainly don’t want. I think it’s going to be the Redskins because I think the Dolphins have made it more than clear they will lose at all costs to get the No. 1 pick. With the Redskins and Bengals at 0-5, the Dolphins need to make sure they lose this game or their entire rebuilding plan will be ruined. The biggest Redskins fan in the world on Sunday will be Tagovailoa.
MINNESOTA -3 over Philadelphia This game was the hardest one for me to pick because as someone who bought the Sunday Ticket solely for Vikings games, I have seen every game in its entirety of the Cousins era. The Vikings are good because of their defense, but they’re not great because of Cousins. But the Eagles are just as average as the Vikings, and because of that, I have to take the home team.
ARIZONA +2.5 over Atlanta Once an owner starts commenting on the status of the team’s head coach to the media, that head coach is done. That’s exactly what’s happening in Atlanta. It’s a move that’s way overdue, and a move that should have been made the second the Super Bowl collapse happened, but it’s a move that’s coming before the start of next season.
LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5 over San Francisco If you had to bet on Greg Zuerlein to successfully kick a 44-yard field-goal attempt, you would bet for him every time. That’s the situation I was in in the Rams-Seahawks game last week when the Rams had a chance to win the game if Zuerlein convered the 44-yard attempt as time expired. He didn’t and the Rams lost and my pick lost and my bank account lost. That loss was the Rams’ second straight, something I didn’t think was possible for this team in this window. A third straight loss? No way.
Tennessee +2.5 over DENVER The Broncos surprised everyone with a win on the road against the Chargers. The Chargers losing one of their easier games at home to a Broncos team, which looked dysfunctional on offense for the first four games of the season shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone since that’s the exact kind of game the Chargers always lose. Meanwhile, the Titans, who I wrongly predicted to build off their 8-8 finish last season, lost a 14-7 game in Buffalo after their eventually-released kicker missed all for field-goal attempts. For two teams with good defenses who have trouble moving the ball on offense, the over/under on this barnburner should be 20.
NEW YORK JETS +7.5 over Dallas The good news for the Jets is their quarterback is back. The bad news for the Jets is it will take a miracle for them to save their season. If 10 wins gets the Jets a playoff berth, they would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way. Their next three games are against Dallas, New England and Jacksonville, which means they could be eliminated from going 10-2 in the next three weeks. The Jets finally had a roster capable of reaching the playoffs and a schedule that would allow them an easy path to do so, and it just didn’t work out, the way things never work out for the Jets.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6.5 over Pittsburgh The Chargers are 2-3 this season. Their two wins were a home overtime win over Indianapolis in Week 1 and a win at Miami in Week 4. Their three losses have been to Detroit, Houston and Denver, and in those three games, they have scored 10, 20 and 13 points, for an average of 14.3 points per game. What happened to the Chargers team that looked like a Super Bowl contender nine months ago and was able to put up points with ease? The Chargers’ schedule is about to get extremely difficult with two timezone-changing trips and Green Bay and Kansas City before their Week 12 bye. If the Chargers can’t win this game, and win big, against a Pittsburgh team on their third-string quarterback, then call it a season and we’ll see the Chargers again next September.
GREEN BAY -4 over Detroit Unless you’re a Lions fan, you would have to be crazy to ever bet on Lions game, for or against them. If you bet for them, they will screw you. If you bet against them, they will screw you. There’s no knowing what type of effort you will get from Lions and what kind of comeback they will produce or what kind of late-game meltdown they will endure. The safest thing to do is to pick against them.
The Yankees are one Rays win away from having home-field in the ALCS, and at the worst, they will get a much different Astros rotation than expected.
There’s been too much going on to not bring the Off Day Dreaming blog from the regular season back for the postseason. The Yankees are resting for the second straight day, while the Astros and Rays are in Houston preparing for Game 5 on Thursday. It’s never felt so good to not have Yankees baseball for so long.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees on this off day as usual.
1. I don’t want Aaron Hicks to return to the team. Not that he’s necessarily going to because him saying he’s ready to go and him actually being deemed ready to go by the Yankees are two very different things, but the Yankees don’t need him and I don’t want him.
Hicks only played in 59 games this year, hasn’t played since August 3 and wasn’t good when he played. He batted .235/.325/.443 in his limited time with 12 home runs and 36 RBIs, and while the home runs translate to a 33-home run season over 162 games, that’s not all that impressive given the state of the baseball and home run totals around the league. And projecting numbers for Hicks out over 162 games, as if he would ever play a full season is funny.
Even if Hicks were to return and have only a reserve role on the team, it would likely mean Cameron Maybin would lose his postseason roster spot. Maybin deserves to be a part of this time now after earning it throughout the regular season, and he’s a better option for a role off the bench, which he most recently displayed in Game 3 with his ninth-inning home run to give the Yankees a much-needed insurance run.
Unfortunately, this is a lost season for Hicks, in what was another season in which he got hurt multiple times and failed to stay on the field. The Yankees don’t need him and they don’t have a place for a player who hasn’t played in more than two months.
2. There’s this idea it’s unwise to want to pick your opponent in the postseason, but I disagree. If given the choice before the ALDS, I’m sure the Yankees would have rather faced the team with no starting pitching in the Twins than the Astros or Rays, and when it comes to the ALCS, there’s no chance the Yankees would rather face the Astros over the Rays. A matchup against the Rays means home-field advantage for the series, a shorter flight for Games 3, 4 and 5 and the chance to play in a familiar setting where the majority of the crowd will be Yankees fans.
If you want the Yankees to face the Astros or if you’re not rooting for the Rays to win Game 5 because you don’t want to root for a division rival or because you think picking your postseason opponent has negative repercussions, take a lap.
3. Even if the Rays lose Game 5 of the ALDS to the Astros on Thursday night, they have already done more than enough to help the Yankees for the ALCS. Justin Verlander starting Game 4 of the ALDS means the earliest he can pitch in the ALCS is Game 2, and Gerrit Cole having to start Game 5 of the ALDS means the earliest he can pitch in the ALCS is Game 3. Instead of the Yankees getting Verlander in Game 1 and Cole in Game 2 in Houston (where the duo is nearly unbeatable) they would get Verlander in Game 2 in Houston and Cole in Game 3 in New York. And after seeing Cole get knocked around in Boston in the 2018 ALDS, he’s far from a sure-thing away from his home of MinuteMaid Park.
The Astros having to go the distance against the Rays means their rotation would look something like this in the ALCS:
Game 1: Zack Greinke Game 2: Justin Verlander Game 3: Gerrit Cole Game 4: Wade Miley Game 5: Zack Greinke Game 6: Justin Verlander Game 7: Gerrit Cole
4. If the Rays are to pull off the historic upset and eliminate the Astros in Game 5, then things get even more advantageous for the Yankees. The Yankees would then have home-field advantage for the ALCS and would play Games 1 and 2 in New York on Saturday and Sunday rather than Games 3, 4 and 5 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. That means a more raucous Stadium crowd with all day to pregame and no work obligations either day.
It also means the Yankees would face the overall lesser opponent, who they went 12-7 against in the regular season with two of the losses coming in the last week of the season when the Yankees had nothing to play for (and provided the lineups to prove it) and the Rays had everything to play for.
It’s hard to predict the Rays’ rotation if they advance to the ALCS because it’s hard to know if Charlie Morton or Blake Snell will need to come out of the bullpen in Game 5 in relief of Tyler Glasnow. But let’s say the Rays stick to their expected rotation and Morton and Snell go in turn, this is what the Rays’ ALCS rotation would look like:
Game 1: Blake Snell Game 2: Charlie Morton Game 3: Tyler Glasnow Game 4: Opener Game 5: Blake Snell Game 6: Charlie Morton Game 7: Tyler Glasnow
The Yankees would get Snell and Morton in New York where neither has had success.
Snell has been a disaster at the Stadium in his career, pitching to a 5.82 ERA, 1.616 WHIP and allowing nine home runs in 43 1/3 innings over 11 starts. He’s fared much better against the Yankees at Tropicana Field, but if the Rays use this rotation, he will only face the Yankees once at home, and the series might be over before he even gets to.
Morton has been a dominant postseason pitcher, and handled the Yankees in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K), but in Game 3 of that series, he was removed in the fourth inning after getting rocked (3.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR) at the Stadium. This season he shut the Yankees down over two starts at Tropicana Field, but couldn’t get anyone out in two starts at the Stadium.
With this rotation, Morton would only face the Yankees in New York, where he’s been Pirates Charlie Morton and not Astros/Rays Charlie Morton.
5. Even going back to the beginning of the season, I have always been against CC Sabathia getting a postseason start, and there’s no chance of it happening now, which is great. But being on the roster and pitching out of the bullpen? That’s a different story.
Aaron Boone managed himself into a pretzel in Game 3 when he used Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green in the fifth inning. Thankfully, the Yankees were able to win the game by only using their elite relievers and it never truly came back to hurt the team or ruin the series. But because of his dangerous decisions, Tyler Lyons was warming up at one point. The same Tyler Lyons the Yankees signed in August after he was released by the Pirates and who gave up three home runs in 8 1/3 innings for the Yankees in the regular season. The only reason Lyons is on the roster is because both Sabathia and Dellin Betances are hurt.
I would have felt much more comfortable had Sabathia (even on one knee and with a bad shoulder) been warming up instead of Lyons. And moving forward, I hope Sabathia is healthy enough to be on the active roster, so that it will be him instead of Lyons warming up when Boone inevitably mismanages the bullpen.
6. I think it’s beyond silly to bat Brett Gardner third in the lineup and have him bat ahead of Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez, but the Yankees feel it’s necessary to break up the right-handed bats (the same way they feel it’s necessary to give their players scheduled days off to prevent injuries), so they’re going to have a left-handed bat there against right-handed starters. Because of that and because the team is undefeated in the postseason with that lineup, you can expect to continue to see it in the ALCS against right-handed starters.
The right-handed starters the Yankees will see in the ALCS are either Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke, or Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow and probably opener Diego Castillo. Against left-handed pitching, Gardner would most likely slide down to the bottom of the order, and the Yankees would place Gio Urshela between Gardner and Didi Gregorius. That would give the Yankees a lineup looking something like this:
DJ LeMahieu, 1B Aaron Judge, RF Edwin Encarnacion, DH Giancarlo Stanton, LF Gleyber Torres, 2B Gary Sanchez, C Didi Gregorius, SS Gio Urshela, 3B Brett Gardner, CF
Now that’s a lineup. That’s the lineup the Yankees would use against Wade Miley and Blake Snell. I think it’s the lineup they should use every game.
7. Ottavino was used oddly in Game 3 of the ALDS, facing only Nelson Cruz before being removed for another right-handed pitcher in Green to face a left-handed hitter. It’s clear Boone is being told by the analytics department to not allow Ottavino to face left-handed batters, and that won’t be a problem if the Yankees face the Astros. Ottavino will have his work cut out for him with anticipated matchups against George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa, so while it was head-scratching to see Ottavino used in a limited role against the Twins, you can expect to see a lot of him against the Astros.
If it’s the Rays who advance, Ottavino’s role will be less prominent as the Rays have a much more balanced lineup, but even then, their left-handed bats are nowhere near as fearsome as the left-handed bats of the Twins or Astros. Either way, expect to see more Ottavino in the next round, and expect to see a lot of him if the Yankees play the Astros.
8. Aside from sweeping the division series and getting a four-day, complete-day layoff before the ALCS, the best part about the ALDS was that everyone in the lineup contributed.
LeMahieu hit two doubles, a home run and had four RBIs. Judge reached base in seven of his 13 plate appearances. Gardner homered in Game 1 and drove in the huge second run in Game 3. Encarnacion went 4-for-13 with two doubles and two RBIs. Stanton reached base in five of his 11 plate appearances. Torres gave the Yankees the lead in Games 1 and 3, had three doubles, a home run, four RBIs, two stolen bases and a 1.378 OPS and was the ALDS MVP. Sanchez reached base in five of his 12 plate appearances and saw 28 pitches in Game 3.Gregorius had the grand slam in Game 2, drove in two insurance runs in Game 3 and led the team with 6 RBIs in the series. Urshela had three hits, including a double.
When the worst hitter on your team in a series is your 9-hitter (Urshela here), which is supposed to be your worst hitter, and even he goes 3-for-12 with a double in the series, you know things are going well. When you score 23 runs in three games despite not getting a home run from Judge, Encarnacion, Stanton or Sanchez, well, that’s just scary.
Too many times since 2001 have the Yankees lost postseason series because the entire team or nearly the entire team is cold at the same time. I don’t expect the Yankees to have the kind of three-game offensive outburst they had in the ALDS in the ALCS or the World Series if they make it that far, but getting production and timely hits from different players each game, like they did in the ALDS, is what wins in October.
9. Odds are the Yankees will stay with their ALDS rotation in the ALCS, but there are a few things for them to think about depending on which team wins.
If the Rays win, I think it’s a guarantee we see the same rotation order in the ALCS, setting up this rotation:
Game 1: James Paxton Game 2: Masahiro Tanaka Game 3: Luis Severino Game 4: Opener/J.A. Happ Game 5: James Paxton Game 6: Masahiro Tanaka Game 7: Luis Severino
That would allow both Paxton and Tanaka to pitch at home in Games 1 and 2 and would bring Tanaka back at home in Game 6, where’s he much better than on he is on the road.
If the Astros win, things could change. Paxton, despite being a left-hander against the Astros’ right-handed heavy lineup of Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel and Correa has dominated the Astros in his career, winning all four of his starts against them in 2018 as a Mariner. I wouldn’t feel great about having a lefty opening the series on the road against that right-handed lineup, but I still think he would be the Yankees’ Game 1 choice, even though he pitched the worst of three starters in the ALDS.
I think the Yankees might flip Tanaka and Severino if they have to play the Astros. Tanaka did pitch well in Game 1 in Houston in the 2017 ALCS, and Severino did OK in Game 2 of that series, but it’s clear the Yankees would rather have Tanaka start at home than on the road this postseason. If the Yankees were to leave Paxton and flip Tanaka and Severino, the rotation would look like this:
Game 1: James Paxton Game 2: Luis Severino Game 3: Masahiro Tanaka Game 4: Opener/J.A. Happ Game 5: James Paxton Game 6: Luis Severino Game 7: Masahiro Tanaka
The Yankees have a lot to think about when it comes to their rotation, and I’m sure they already know what they will do depending on which team wins the other series, but at least they will get to line up their rotation on their terms after sweeping their division series.
10. I needed this four-day layoff as much as the Yankees after spending Friday and Saturday at the Stadium and then having the stressful Game 3 on Tuesday. It’s nice to sit back and enjoy the other series and not have to worry about a winner-take-all game like Astros, Rays, Dodgers, Nationals, Braves and Cardinals fans have to worry about on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Yankees might not have won home-field advantage for the American League postseason in the regular season, but they are one Rays win from getting it, and they are now in a much better position to face the Astros if the Astros win.
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