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Author: Neil Keefe

BlogsRangers

Are Rangers a Playoff Team?

I want the Rangers to be a playoff team. I think they can be a playoff team. It’s just going to take a lot for them to be a playoff team.

I was in bed fighting sleep when the Rangers lost to the Avalanche 3-2 in overtime. With news breaking about the NBA canceling games due to the ensuing pandemic, I thought it might be the last regular-season Rangers game I would see for a while. I didn’t think a while would be more than 10 months later.

I did get to see that Rangers team play again, more than four months later when they met Carolina in a best-of-5 play-in series. That series lasted the three-game minimum and after waiting 141 days for Rangers hockey, it was taken away again in four days.

Those August “playoff” games against the Hurricanes feel like they never happened. The Rangers team that showed up in the Toronto bubble looked like the Rangers team that showed up for the start of the regular season the previous October, a team which was nowhere close to competing for a full 60 minutes, let alone a playoff berth.

The Rangers ended up in the expanded postseason field because of the work they had done leading up to that disappointing result in Colorado. After beginning the New Year with a three-game losing streak in Western Canada, the Rangers began a magical stretch on Jan. 7, 2020, winning 16 of their next 22 games to pull themselves into the postseason picture. When I fought to stay awake as the Rangers tied the Avalance with 13 seconds left in regulation only to lose in overtime, I had spent more than two months nightly scoreboard watching long after my then-pregnant wife would go to bed.

After the loss in Colorado, the Rangers were on the outside looking in on the playoffs and math on the the remaining schedules of the Islanders and Blue Jackets weren’t on their side. The Rangers were going to need to win at least nine of their remaining 12 games to get into the postseason, and even that might not be enough because of the amount of overtime games the Islanders (15) and Blue Jackets (12) had played and the amount of loser points they had racked up. When the season was paused, the Rangers had 36 regulation and overtime wins to the Blue Jackets’ and Hurricanes’ 33 and the Islanders’ 32. All four teams were ahead of the Rangers in the standings.

This season will be 56 games, eight more than the last time there was a shortened season in 2012-13. Back then there were still three divisions per conference and the Winnipeg Jets were playing in the Southeast where their closest division opponent was 1,558.4 miles away in Washington D.C. (Only in the NHL.) Here are the points-per-game needed in the Eastern Conference in the eight years since that 48-game season. (I adjusted the 2012-13 standings to reflect today’s postseason format.)

2019-20: 1.17
2018-19: 1.20
2017-18: 1.18
2016-17: 1.16
2015-16: 1.13
2014-15: 1.20
2013-14: 1.12
2012-13: 1.15

In order to leave a potential cushion and not be disappointed, planning to need 1.20 points per game (the high end of the list) to earn a postseason berth would be wise. That means Rangers fans should be looking for the team to accumulate 67 points in the 56 games this season to get in teh playoffs.

Four teams from each division will make the playoffs. The Rangers’ division is the following (in order of their Eastern Conference finish from the regular season):

Bruins
Capitals
Flyers
Penguins
Islanders
Rangers
Sabres
Devils

The East is so deep I feel like the coach in Rudy who tells the walk-on tryouts, “NCAA regulations allow us to dress just 60 for home games, which means at least 35 scholarship players are going to be watching the games from the stands.” How do you pick four postseason teams out of those eight? If you drop Buffalo and New Jersey from being playoff teams based on last season (and the fact they are the two weakest teams on paper), you still have to cut two of the remaining six teams.

Let’s say both the Sabres and Devils are eliminated. (If they’re not, this division is even more ridiculous that originally expected.) In order for the Rangers to reach the playoffs, the Rangers are going to have to average about 1.20 points per game and have two of these five teams miss the playoffs:

1. Eastern Conference runner-up to eventual champion Lightning
2. First in Metropolitan, third in East prior to season being paused
3. Third in Metropolitan, fifth in East prior to season being paused
4. Second in Metropolitan, fourth in East prior to season being paused
5. First in Eastern Conference prior to season being paused

To put it another way, the Rangers are going to have to average roughly 1.20 points per game and have two of these happen:

1. The Islanders to play like the team from the second half of last season and not the team from the first half or the team from the playoffs and miss the playoffs.
2. The Capitals to miss the playoffs for the second time in 14 years.
3. The Penguins to miss the playoffs for the first time since Sidney Crosby’s rookie season (2005-06).
4. The Flyers to go from being the best team in the league in the second half and arguably the best team in the Metropolitan in the second half to missing the playoffs.
5. The Bruins to regress from being the best team in the East last year by eight points and the East champion the season before to missing the playoffs.

I’m not cutting the Rangers. I understand the rebuild isn’t complete. I understand a postseason berth last summer was a gift and shouldn’t factor in evulating this season’s success ordevelopment in what will be a second straight unusual season. I understand the abundance of youth and inexperience the roster will feature this season. I’m still not cutting them. At least not yet.

I want the Rangers to be a playoff team. I think they can be a playoff team. It’s just going to take a lot for them to be a playoff team.

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PodcastsYankeesYankees OffseasonYankees Podcast

Yankees Podcast: DJ LeMahieu Is ‘Dismayed’

There’s a report DJ LeMahieu is “dismayed” with the Yankees and has asked his agent to connect with other teams.

There’s a report from Yahoo! Sports that DJ LeMahieu is “dismayed” with the Yankees and has asked his agent to connect with other teams on a contract. If true, it’s not a surprise as the Yankees have yet to sign the team’s best player. They have yet to do anything this offseason.


Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.


My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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BlogsNHLRangers

2020-21 NHL All-Animosity Team

Because of the lack of Rangers games over the last 10 months, there hasn’t been any animosity build toward new players to make the team.

We are close to when the NHL All-Star Game would take place in a normal season. But this season hasn’t even started yet, and there won’t be an All-Star Game, so the time when I usually release the season’s All-Animosity Team won’t exist this year. Maybe it’s for the better after last year’s “All-Star Game” featured Chris Kreider, Travis Konecny, Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Duclair and some questionable decisions in net.

By the time the Rangers open their season on Jan. 14, 2021, they won’t have played a regular-season game in 10 months and a day. In that 10 months and a day, they will have played three total games, all in their best-of-5 series against Carolina.

Because of the lack of games, there hasn’t been any animosity build toward new players to make the team. The All-Animosity Team for this season is the same as it was last season with some updates.

FORWARDS

Matthew Barzal
We came dangerously close to Panarin and Barzal playing together for the foreseeable future. If not for Panarin taking less money (about $1 million per year less) to be a Ranger instead of an Islander, Rangers fans would have had to deal with those two flying around together for years to come. It gives me chills just thinking about it. Thankfully, it didn’t happen.

When Barzal is on the ice, I’m scared. I’m not scared at the level of Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Nathan MacKinnon or Connor McDavid, but I’m still scared. He’s the one true playmaker on the Islanders and against the current state of the Rangers defense, he’s not someone I enjoy entering the offensive zone with the puck. Every time he does his patented circling of the zone with possession it feels like it will only end badly, and unfortunately, he’s not going anywhere in terms of the rivalry.

I was hoping Barzal got offer sheets this offseason, and was hoping the Rangers might have even been one of the teams to offer him one. If no offer sheets, I hoped Barzal would hold out for the season. That didn’t happen either. His deal eventually got done and he’ll be an Islander for at least the next three seasons. Good for the rivalry, bad for the Rangers.

Brad Marchand
Marchand is the ultimate player who you hate to watch your team play against, but would love if he were on your team. He’s dirty and annoying, he’s a pest and nuisance, but he’s really good. He makes up one-third of the Bruins’ “Perfection Line” and the Bruins go as that line goes, and after a trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 2018-19 and a first-place standing in the Atlantic last season, that line has never slowed down. Now, the Rangers will have to see that line for one-seventh of their regular-season schedule. Eight games against the Bruins makes isn’t ideal.

Marchand might have been on this team solely for what he does with the puck because he’s that talented, but it’s what he does without the puck that solidified his roster spot. His lapses in judgment and total disregard for player safety whether it’s unnecessary hits to the head or irresponsible slew foots have made him universally disliked in the entire hockey world outside of Boston. I don’t envision a scenario where Marchand is in the league and isn’t on this team.

Alexander Ovechkin
In his career, Ovechkin has 35 goals in 59 regular-season games against the Rangers and another 13 goals in 33 playoff games across five postseason series, with four of those series going seven games. He’s the ultimate “When is his shift going to end?” and “Get the puck out of the zone” player there is and when he’s waiting at the top of the circles on the power play, two minutes feels like 20 minutes.

I keep waiting for Ovechkin to slow down, thinking age or games played might start to catch up to him, but in his age 34 season he led the league in scoring with 48 goals and was on a 58-goal pace before the season was shut down. I do respect his ability and do appreciate that I’m watching greatness and a generational talent and arguably the best goal scorer in the history of the game, that just doesn’t take away how I feel when he’s playing the Rangers.

DEFENSEMEN

Zdeno Chara
Chara is no longer a Bruin, but the Rangers will still see him plenty now that he’s a Capital. The animosity will only increase because of his change of teams.

It’s weird to think the Bruins will retire Chara’s number one day considering the team they were when they signed him and the team they eventually became. When Chara arrived in Boston, It felt like it would be at least another three decades until the Bruins won again, but after winning the Cup and reaching the Final two other times in a nine-year period, Chara was staple for the Bruins and an exemplary captain of the team for 15 years (though I have always felt as though Patrice Bergeron deserved to wear the “C” all those years).

Chara isn’t close to being the player he once was and appears to be a liability on the ice more times than not, but he’s not once again on this team for the player he is, but the player he was.

Andy Greene
To be honest, I don’t dislike Greene. In fact, I don’t have any positive or negative feelings about him. But this roster needed a representative from the Devils last season, and who was better to fill that role than their captain? Greene is no longer with the Devils, but he’s with the Islanders, and going from one Rangers rival to another made him an easy pick on this team’s blue line.

The Devils were a mess last season, and that led to them moving Greene. After winning the lottery for the second time in three years, acquiring P.K. Subban and signing Wayne Simmonds, the Devils looked at worst to be a bubble team for the postseason. The only thing they ended up on the bubble for was winning the draft lottery again. The Devils have the pieces in place to rebound in this shortened season, but let’s hope that’s not the case. The Rangers newly-aligned division is hard enough.

GOALIE

Braden Holtby
For years I only had to worry about picking the forwards and defensemen for this team because I knew Martin Brodeur would be the goalie. Holtby is in no way as easy of a choice for this spot as Brodeur was, but he has still earned it. Normally, I dislike a player because of their performance against one of my teams, but Holtby has only won 14 of 26 regular-season games against the Rangers and has lost all three postseason series to them, including three Game 7s.

The reason I have never liked him is mostly not his fault. It’s not his fault he has been perceived in past seasons to be better than Henrik Lundqvist despite having a much, much better team in front of him, and it’s not his fault that his much, much better team helped him win the Stanley Cup, while Lundqvist’s prime was wasted with a disastrous defense and poor roster construction and he will most likely retire having never won the Cup.

Holtby is now in Vancouer, so the animosity for him will go away. For now, there’s no better option, but there will be for next year.

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BlogsGiantsNFL

Giants Fans’ Super Bowl LV Dilemma

Someone will win Super Bowl LIV, but it won’t be the Giants. Here’s the list of playoff teams in order of who I want to see win the Super Bowl to who I don’t want to see win the Super Bowl.

Someone will win Super Bowl LV, but it won’t be the Giants. Unfortunately, this blog is becoming an annual thing because of the Giants’ inability to reach the postseason.

Here’s the list of playoff teams in order of who I want to see win the Super Bowl to who I don’t want to see win the Super Bowl.

1. Bills
If you don’t have a horse in this season’s race, or if your horse drops out of the race, how can you not root for the Bills? The removal of Tom Brady from the AFC East allowed the Bills to finally reclaim the division with a 13-3 record, and were a completed Kyler Murray Hail Mary away from being 14-2. I was heartbroken for Bills fans after they fell to the Texans last year, and I truly hope I don’t have to feel that way for them again in January … or February.

2. Washington
I’m not mad at the Eagles for me having to write this blog again this season. They didn’t prevent the Giants from reaching the postseason, the Giants did that all on their own. The Eagles just did everything they could to not help them, like Jim Halpert avoiding a falling Michael Scott as he went into the koi pond in The Office. Washington has a solid defense and a formidable front four, and that’s a recipe for disaster for Brady as he have learned in all of his other postseason defeats. Washington’s chances come down to what their offense can do, and if it’s anything like it was in Philadelphia in Week 17, their postseason will last one game.

3. Tampa Bay
A year ago, I would have been disgusted at the thought of Brady winning a seventh Super Bowl. But now, he’s a Buccaneer, and the Giants were eliminated and won’t be hosting the Buccaneers this Saturday, so why not bring some joy to this postseason and have Brady win a championship in his first season on a new team, causing chaos in New England?

4. Bears
The Bears have about as good of a chance as winning the Super Bowl as the Giants do, so even having them on this list is unnecessary.

5. Titans
A year ago, after upsetting the Patriots and outsmarting Bill Belichick with his fourth-quarter rundown of the clock, I was all in on Mike Vrabel. But now after watching his defense fall apart, and his offense at times forgetting they have Derrick Henry, the Titans have been a mess this season. Yes, an 11-win mess. Their regular-season finale against the Texans summed up this Titans team as they nearly lost a game in which they led by 16 points with 4:29 left in the third quarter and led by three points with 1:50 left in the game. The Titans have cost me a good amount of money this season, but they’re still a better option to win than most other teams.

6. Chiefs
Let’s be honest, the Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl. It would take a monumental upset for them to not win the Super Bowl. It wouldn’t bother me if Patrick Mahomes were to eventually put an end to the Peyton Manning-Brady debate of who the greatest quarterback of all time is if he keeps on his current trajectory. Winning a second Super Bowl at age 25 and a second in as many years would go a long way in him eventually winning the debate.

7. Colts
I never want Eli Manning to lose his title as the best quarterback from the 2004 draft class (which he undoubtedly is or was). That means Philip Rivers never winning a Super Bowl.

8. Browns
A Browns Super Bowl would give the Giants hope since the Giants have become what the Browns used to be in recent seasons. A Browns Super Bowl would also mean the team went on to win a championship without Odell Beckham. Beckham’s lone playoff game to date remans the game he and Sterling Shepard combined to lose for the Giants with their first-quarter drops five years ago. Beckham would be the Browns’ Jeremy Shockey.

9. Saints
The Saints avenged their non-pass interference call against the Rams two years ago by losing to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings a year ago. The Saints aren’t what they were over the last two years, but they’re still capable of winning the NFC and the Super Bowl. I just don’t want them to.

10. Ravens
Two postseasons ago, I bet on the Ravens to beat the Chargers. I still have no idea how John Harbaugh sat there and let a winnable postseason game fade away as Joe Flacco stood on the sideline while Lamar Jackson couldn’t register a first down. I also have no idea Jackson went from the quarterback in that game to league MVP in a single year. But I’m still not over that loss.

11. Steelers
I can’t stand the Steelers. A fraudulent team during the Patriots’ dynasty, the Steelers’ December home loss to Washington when they were still undefeated is more to blame for Washington winning the NFC East than the Eagles throwing the Week 17 game. (But yes, it’s still really the Giants’ own fault their season is over.)

12. Packers
If the Miracle at MetLife didn’t happen and the Giants didn’t blow a 21-point lead to the Eagles with eight minutes to play now more than 10 years ago, Aaron Rodgers is this generation’s Dan Marino. That Giants collapse allowed the Packers to reach the playoffs and eventually reach the Super Bowl. Without that Giants loss, the Rodgers Packers would have endured the following postseason defeats:

51-45 overtime loss at Arizona
37-20 loss at home to Giants after going 15-1 in regular season
45-31 loss at San Francisco
23-20 loss at home to San Francisco
28-22 overtime loss at Seattle after blowing 12-point lead with 3:52 left
26-20 overtime loss at Arizona
44-21 loss at Atlanta
37-20 loss at San Francisco

One Super Bowl appearance and win (which shouldn’t have happened) for Rodgers is too much for me.

13. Rams
After the Rams’ performance in Super Bowl LIII when they scored three points despite the Patriots trying to give the game away in the first quarter, it will be a long time, if ever, that I root for the Rams.

14. Seahawks
I will never get over what Pete Carroll did in Super Bowl XLIX. Never. I will also never root for him unless I absolutely have to, but since the Eagles, Cowboys, Patriots and Jets aren’t in the postseason, there’s no potential matchup where I would have to root for him and his team.

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PodcastsYankeesYankees Offseason

Yankees Podcast: Still Waiting on DJ LeMahieu

DJ LeMahieu is still a free agent and the Yankees still haven’t improved their roster or rotation.

It’s been three days since the last podcast and DJ LeMahieu is still a free agent, and over the last three days, the Yankees haven’t improved their roster or rotation. The Yankees did finally make an offseason move, but it was nothing more than a depth move that will hopefully not have any impact on the team this season.


Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.


My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Read More