Neil Keefe

Feb 16, 2021

Yankees Should Regret James Paxton Trade

The Yankees’ pre-2019 trade for James paxton didn’t work out the same way nearly every Brian Cashman trade for starting pitching hasn’t worked out.

Nearly three years ago at the 2018 trade deadline, I called James Paxton “blah” and in the same category as Chris Archer and Michael Fulmer. They were all pitchers I didn’t think were worth the Yankees trading for since they wouldn’t really make the team that much better and certainly weren’t worth giving up high-end prospects for. It was hard to find anyone who shared my perspective.

The allure of Paxton’s raw stuff and ceiling to be among the game’s best when he was on is what made him attractive to the Yankees and most Yankees fans, the way A.J. Burnett likely had. The problem is Paxton was the left-handed version of Burnett: unhittable when consistent, but rarely consistent. I referred to him as “blah” because of that inconsistency combined with his lengthy injury-riddled past. I agreed when Paxton was on, he was one as dominant as anyone in the league, but he was rarely on in consecutive starts or for any reasonable stretch of time.

Paxton was “blah” as a Yankee. He came to the team having never pitched more than 160 1/3 innings in a season (2018), and he fell under that mark in 2019 with 150 2/3 innings after spending a month on the injured list early in the season with a knee injury. After putting together an impressive second-half run to emerge as the Yankees’ top healthy starter, he hurt his back in his final regular-season game of 2019, and then was shaky in the ALDS (three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings) and couldn’t give any length in the ALCS (8 1/3 innings over two starts). The back injury lingered until February 2020 when he underwent surgery to resolve it. Once he returned when the season started in late July, his velocity had disappeared, and he turned in one quality start in five attempts before being shut down with a 6.64 ERA, effectively ending his Yankees tenure.

Paxton’s time with the Yankees was a letdown, and all my fears of trading for him came to fruition. To his credit, with the Yankees, he was exactly who he had been his entire career. There were no surprises. He ended up on the injured list in both seasons with the Yankees, the same way he had in every season with the Mariners, he was at times great, mostly OK, and mainly inconsistent. There were flashes of brilliance like in early 2019 against the Red Sox and Royals and in the second half of that season, but there were too many uninspiring, disappointing performances from a guy the Yankees sacrificed their top pitching prospect for, and a guy who was supposed to slot behind Luis Severino in the Yankees’ rotation.

That top pitching prospect the Yankees traded away to acquire Paxton was Justus Sheffield. The same 22-year-old Sheffield current and former Yankees raved about during spring training in 2018. Sheffield never started a game for the Yankees, making only three relief appearances in 2018, and then had mixed results in seven starts and eight games for the 2019 Mariners. But in 2020 and now 24, Sheffield broke out with a 3.58 ERA and 3.17 FIP across 10 starts for the Mariners. He had become the kind of starter the 2020 Yankees could have used in the ALDS to survive the Rays, instead they had Paxton, who had been shut down long before October with his latest injury on Aug. 20.

The Yankees made the move for Paxton recognizing their “window” at the time of the deal, choosing the veteran Paxton over the unknown Sheffield to help put them over the top. It didn’t work out like nearly every Brian Cashman trade for starting pitching hasn’t worked out and Paxton became the latest name in a long list of starter’s names who didn’t work out in New York.

In 2021, Sheffield will be in the same Mariners’ rotation as Paxton after the team brought Paxton back on a one-year deal this past week. The same way the Yankees traded Justin Wilson after 2015 in exchange for Chad Green and Luis Cessa, and now have all three, the Yankees were clearly on the losing end of the Paxton-Sheffield trade. It’s now easy to say the Mariners won the deal. It was a blowout win for the Mariners, a team that hasn’t done much winning in any regard since 2001. The Mariners received a package headline by Sheffield, didn’t have to pay Paxton the $21.075 million the Yankees did for 34 inconsistent regular-season starts, three postseason starts of varying success and two injury-plagued seasons.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Yankees

Feb 12, 2021

Joe Girardi Deserves Monument Park Plaque for 2013 Performance

Joe Girardi had a great deal of success in his 10 years at Yankees manager, but 2013 was his best given the roster he had to work with.

It’s easy to forget how bad the Yankees were just five, six and seven years ago. Sandwiched between 18 postseason appearances in 19 years from 1995-2012 and another four straight from 2017-2020 were the “dark” years of 2013, 2014 and 2016. (I will give 2015 a pass because the Yankees did appear in the one-game playoff, and would have been in the ALDS in pre-2012 format.) Yes, I realize posting winning records in 2013, 2014 and 2016 isn’t necessarily “dark” compared to other franchise, but those seasons were dark in Yankees’ terms.

The darkest of them all was 2013 when injuries from 2012 lingered, new injuries in spring training popped up and the longest performance-enhancing drug suspension of all time followed the Yankees’ season. I remember going to the Stadium on Opening Day of the 2013 season against the Red Sox and thinking the Yankees would be in contention once again after their disappointing ALCS sweep at the hands of the Tigers the October before. I was wrong.

The Yankees’ Opening Day lineup:

Brett Gardner, CF
Eduardo Nunez, SS
Robinson Cano, 2B
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Vernon Wells, LF
Ben Francisco, DH
Ichiro Suzuki, RF
Jayson Nix, 3B
Francisco Cervelli, C

(Facing a left-handed starter, the team had the vaunted Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay on the bench)

It was no surprise that Yankees team started the season 1-4. Maybe the mid-2000s All-Star Team wasn’t a way to go about building a roster. Then in the sixth game of the season in Detroit, they surprisingly pummeled Justin Verlander in a 7-0 win and went on to win four straight, seven of eight and nine of 11. At 10-6, the power of putting on the pinstripes never seemed so powerful. Sure, many former All-Stars and elite players had revitalized their careers wearing the Yankees uniform, but this was taking it to another level.

The 34-year-old Vernon Wells who had been unceremoniously let go by the Angels and hadn’t played a full season in three years hit .317/.394/.619 with five home runs in the first three weeks of the season. The 36-year-old Travis Hafner, who hadn’t played a full season in six years, hit .349/.440/.767 with five home runs in those three weeks. Kevin Youkilis at 34 with his career in serious decline had an .883 OPS with a pair of home runs, journeyman Brennan Boesch had an .857 OPS, newly-appointed starting catcher Francisco Cervelli was batting .310 with a .944 OPS. When the Yankees won in 11 innings over the Blue Jays on April 20 to improve to that 10-6 mark, Ben Francisco was batting second, Youkilis fourth, Wellls fifth and Cervelli sixth. Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix batted eighth and ninth and made up the left side of the infield.

Nearly three weeks after that, the Yankees swept the Royals in Kansas City to move to ten games above .500 at 23-13. In the third game of that series, Wells hit his ninth home run of the season, Ichiro was batting fifth, Chris Nelson (yes, who?) was playing third base and Chris Stewart was catching.

The Yankees’ success to that point was mainly due to their starting pitching. CC Sabathia (3.23 ERA) had yet to fall apart, Hiroki Kuroda continued to be one of the most underrated Yankees of all time (2.31 ERA), soon-to-be-40-year-old Andy Pettitte was masterful (3.83 ERA) in his final season, Phil Hughes’ career hadn’t completely collapsed (4.43 ERA) and David Phelps had given the team consistency as the fifth starter (3.44 ERA in three starts through May 13). Add in the dominant David Robertson and the still somewhat unhittable Mariano Rivera at 43 years of age amidst his farewell tour, and the Yankees’ early-season success made some sense.

The success didn’t last. The Yankees went 62-64 the rest of the way, finishing 85-77. They managed to keep the franchise’s winning-season streak alive (it began in 1993 and is still alive) and would have made the postseason under the 2020 eight-team format.

Wells’ power dried up and after hitting that ninth home run on May 12, he only hit two more over the next four-and-a-half months. Youkilis only played in 28 games total and Hafner 82. Aside from Robinson Cano’s .314/.383/.516 season, the only other bright spot was the return of Alfonso Soriano midseason, as he turned back the clock to 2002, hitting 17 home runs and driving in 50 in only 58 games with the team. There was also the Derek Jeter leadoff home run on the first pitch he saw in 2013, but Number 2 ended up playing in only 17 games.

Jeter wasn’t the only other expected regular to miss significant time. Curtis Granderson played in 61 games and Mark Teixeira in 15 games. Alex Rodriguez appealed his suspension, but was a shell of his former self, hitting seven home runs with a .771 OPS in 44 games.

Here were the players who appeared the most at each position for the 2013 Yankees:

C: Chris Stewart
1B: Lyle Overbay
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Jayson Nix
SS: Eduardo Nunez
LF: Vernon Wells
CF: Brett Gardner
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: Travis Hafner

David Adams (43 games), Mark Reynolds (36), Zoilo Almonte (34), Brennan Boesch (23), Ben Francisco (21), Reid Brignac (17), Brendan Ryan (17), Luis Cruz (16), Alberto Gonzalez (13), Brent Lillibridge (11), Chris Nelson (10), Melky Mesa (5), Thomas Neal (4), Corban Joseph (2) and Travis Ishikawa (1) all also played for the 2013 Yankees.

In 10 years as Yankees manager, Joe Girardi never had a losing season, went to the postseason six times, won the World Series (2009) and went to the ALCS in three other years (2010, 2012, 2017), but it was 2013 that was his best season. That Yankees team had no business winning 85 games. They had no business winning 75 games. Girardi deserved to win American League Manger of the Year for that team’s performance. He deserved to win Manger of All Time. He deserved to have the award named after him. The roster, lineups and batting orders are somewhat funny to look back on now, though I’m still not over that wasted season, so it will take a few more years to truly be funny. But it’s easy to recognize and appreciate the work Girardi did that season to keep his team afloat when it shouldn’t have made it out of April.

It was miraculous, yes an actual miracle, the 2013 Yankees finished with a winning record and eight games above .500. It was Girardi’s finest work as Yankees manager and maybe the finest work any manager has ever had in the history of the game. I just never want to experience a season like it again.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Feb 11, 2021

Yankees Thoughts: Offseason Almost Over

A week from today, Yankees spring training will already be in its second day and baseball will be back. The grind of the offseason is nearly over.

A week from now spring training will have begun. That’s a beautiful sentence to write. Yankees baseball is nearly here.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. We did it. Well, we have almost done it. This is the last Yankees Thoughts of the offseason. A week from today, Yankees spring training will already be in its second day and baseball will be back. The grind of the offseason is nearly over, and now it’s time to focus on the next eight months (it better be eight-plus months) of Yankees baseball.

2. Again, the only move left to make for the Yankees (to stay under the luxury tax, which they blatantly want to) is to bring back Brett Gardner, but that doesn’t seem imminent. I still won’t believe Gardner won’t be a Yankee again until he’s not announced on Opening Day, though there has reportedly been no negotiations between Gardner and the Yankees. Gardner’s agent claims the Yankees said they would discuss yet another re-signing of their longest-tenured player once they took care of their more important offseason business. That business has been taken care of for a while. DJ LeMahieu was re-signed. Corey Kluber was signed. Jameson Taillon was traded for. Adam Ottavino was traded. Masahiro Tanaka left the league. Darren O’Day was signed. There’s nothing else for the Yankees to do at this point, and that makes it odd that Gardner and the only team he has ever known aren’t even talking.

3. I have never wanted Gardner back so much. I didn’t want him back after 2018. I wanted the Yankees to sign Michael Brantley. Gardner had lost his starting job to Andrew McCutchen and was coming off the worst year of his career. The Yankees still brought him back. Following 2019, he was undoubtedly coming back whether or not I wanted him after he posted a career-high 28 home runs with the super baseball. Now I want him back because I’m petrified of Mike Tauchman or Greg Allen becoming everyday players once Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks inevitably land on the injured list. It would be very Yankees for the team to not bring Gardner back the one time they actually need him.

4. There will be a lot made about Gary Sanchez’s every waking moment in spring training, but my focus will be solely on the pitching staff. The Yankees’ entire pitching staff aside from Gerrit Cole has dealt with serious injuries the last two years and anytime they are doing anything related to pitching, it could mean a season-ending injury. Any bullpen session, any fielding practice, any jogging, any anything, and I will be watching it as intently as I would watch The Weather Channel growing up when I had a paper due and there was potential for snow and a snow day to buy me an extra day.

5. I have spent the last three-plus months watching my wife open deliveries to our home from her father full of Dodgers World Champions gear. Sweatshirts, T-shirts, you name it, we have it. The Dodgers won the World Series and still decided to pay Trevor Bauer a ridiculous $40 million to pitch for them in 2021. Brian Cashman thought the Yankees would have the highest payroll in the league, but he was wrong, and wrong by a lot. The team the Yankees should be operating like will have the highest payroll. The team that combines player development with their financial might to put together the best possible roster.

6. I didn’t want the Yankees to sign Bauer. Not because of the money. I didn’t want the Yankees to sign a 30-year-old with one great full season to his name (2018) and then a great 11 starts (2020). Bauer had a 4.30 ERA (4.06 FIP) from 2014 through 2017. Then he had that awesome 2018 (2.21 ERA and 2.44 FIP) and a 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP in 2019 before his Cy Young 2020. Maybe he finally figured it out for good last season in Cincinnati, or maybe it was just the equivalent of a spectacular one-third of a normal season (which is what it was). I also didn’t want him on the team because of his past with Cole, whether it’s settled or not. The Dodgers have the best rotation in baseball. Dodgers fans think they just signed a sure-thing, though Bauer is anything but a sure-thing.

7. I just wanted the Yankees to do more this offseason. They supposedly didn’t counter an offer by Cleveland for a Francisco Lindor trade. It would have been nice if they had acquired Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. I guess they felt re-signing LeMahieu would be enough, and that maybe Gleyber Torres would show up in shape this season and be able to make routine plays at shortstop. It also means they really believe in Gio Urshela to maintain his 2019 and 2020, and the same for Luke Voit. It means they believe their right-handed, one-dimensional (aside from LeMahieu) lineup can finally come through in October after failing miserably to do so the last two Octobers.

8. I wanted them to do more with their pitching. Why not re-sign Tanaka, sign Kluber, trade for Taillon, keep Ottavino and sign O’Day? None of those moves were tied to each other, and they could have all of those pitchers on their 2021 roster, if not for the imaginary salary cap. Instead, get ready for a steady diet of Michael King, Nick Nelson, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga and maybe even a little Tyler Lyons and Nestor Cortes this season.

9. It’s unfortunate the Yankees cut payroll by $50 million for the second time in three years when they could have gone all out to make themselves the clear favorite in the American League. Forget the league, they might not even be the favorite in their division. I’m very worried about both the Blue Jays and Rays, and all Yankees fans should be. The Yankees’ starting pitching isn’t exactly exuding confidence when it comes to health, the bullpen isn’t what it once was and the lineup is the same lineup that failed in October in both 2019 and 2020. Add in a manager that has shown no signs of progress or development after three seasons, and you can see why I’m nervous about the 2021 season.

10. That doesn’t mean I’m not excited for baseball to be back. I’m as excited as I am every year at this time. It’s just hard to see how the Yankees don’t have the same injury problems they had last year and the year before when they have retained all their injury-prone players and then added more injury-riddled pasts to their roster. There will be plenty of time to bring up the Yankees’ roster failures if the team fails, but this is the team Yankees fans have been given to root for this season. For now, baseball is about to be back and that’s all that matters. For now.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Podcasts • Rangers • Rangers Podcast

Feb 11, 2021

Rangers Podcast: More Missed Opportunities and Another Blown Lead

The Rangers blew another lead, missed an abundance of high-quality scoring chances and lost 3-2 to the Bruins.

The Rangers blew another lead, missed an abundance of high-quality scoring chances, including breakaways and open nets, and they lost. They have now lost eight of 12 games this season, nearly all the same way.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New Rangers episodes after every game throughout the season.

Feb 11, 2021

Yankees Podcast: Less Than a Week to Go

Spring training is about to begin, and the Yankees’ health will be the focal point in 2021 after the last two seasons.

The Yankees’ 2021 officially begins next Wednesday in Tampa, and the health of the team will be the focal point of the season. The Yankees will need a lot to go right with this roster to win a championship, and it all centers around avoiding injuries.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Author: Neil Keefe

Yankees Should Regret James Paxton Trade

Joe Girardi Deserves Monument Park Plaque for 2013 Performance

Yankees Thoughts: Offseason Almost Over

Rangers Podcast: More Missed Opportunities and Another Blown Lead

Yankees Podcast: Less Than a Week to Go