1. Bases loaded, no outs and Aaron Judge at the plate. It’s a dream scenario for Yankees fans at any time other than October. Trailing the Blue Jays 2-0 in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the ALDS with Anthony Volpe on third, Austin Wells on second and Trent Grisham on first and no outs, Judge struck out on a splitter from Kevin Gausman and that was the game.
“I wouldn’t say I was overanxious,” Judge said despite him swinging at a 3-2 splitter well off the plate suggesting otherwise. “But in the end, I didn’t get the job done. That’s what it comes down to, just not doing your job.”
Judge has rarely ever done his job in the postseason, as shown by his career postseason OPS being 252 points lower than his career regular-season OPS. He may be the most dominant right-handed regular-season bat in the history of the game, but when the calendar turns to October, his abilities annually disappear.
2. This is what I wrote about Judge after Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series.
I truly think Judge will have his signature postseason if the Yankees’ season continues past Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. In past postseasons, Judge has looked lost from his first at-bat. He has only hit singles in this series, but he got one each off of Crochet, Chapman and Bello — three household names. He’s been on base four times in eight plate appearances and has only struck out twice against top-tier arms. If the monster hit doesn’t come for Judge in Game 3 and the Yankees are able to advance, the Blue Jays are in for a world of shit in the ALDS. For someone who has been as critical of Judge in the playoffs as anyone in the world, I really believe this postseason could be his 2009 Alex Rodriguez postseason.
It turns out it’s the Yankees who are in a world of shit because of Judge’s bat in the ALDS, not the Blue Jays. Judge went on to hit a meaningless double in his next at-bat with no one on and the game already out of hand. It was his first extra-base hit of the postseason and his one RBI remains the ball that was incorrectly scored a hit off of Jarren Duran’s glove in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.
Judge’s swing decision on the splitter from Gausman on Saturday was disturbing. The pitch was never a strike. Not when it left Gausman’s hand, not when it traveled toward the plate and not when it reached the plate (since it never really reached the plate and finished in the other batter’s box). If Judge takes the pitch, it’s a 2-1 game with the bases still loaded and no outs and Bellinger up. If Judge drive any of the pitches in the zone in the at-bat, the Yankees likely take the lead in that spot and may have already accomplished getting a split of the first two games in Toronto. Instead, they need to now do in Game 2 what the Blue Jays did in Game 1 and win a game they are expected to win.
3. Judge isn’t alone in the offensive blame for Game 1. The entire offense failed, and their game plan to swing early against Gausman worked brilliantly in the Blue Jays’ favor, producing first-pitch outs on weak ground balls and lazy fly balls.
This is what I wrote about the Yankees’ offense after Game 2 of the Wild Card Series:
The one thing that gives me optimism in the offense is that Judge, Bellinger and Stanton haven’t done anything yet. … The longer the Yankees go in the postseason without those three hitting the ball in the gap or over the fence, the more optimistic I become about the Yankees’ chances this October.
This still holds true. Stanton had the double off the wall in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series that he admired and was nearly thrown out at second on. Bellinger had the bloop double in that game that should have been caught. Judge had a double in Game 1 of the ALDS, and in typical Judge fashion, it came when the game was over. And that’s all they have done with the bat. The trio has done close to nothing through four postseason games, and yet, the Yankees have already won a round and are in a great position with how the starting pitching lines up for the remainder of this series to win this round. But at some point, these three, or even one of these three is going to need to start hitting like they are capable of. Every other team’s stars and middle-of-the-order bats are hitting like they are expected to in the postseason, but not the Yankees.
4. The Yankees have scored 10 runs in four postseason games. Here is how they have scored those runs:
Run 1: Solo home run
Runs 2-3: Two-run home run
Run 4: Dropped fly ball
Run 5: Runner scores from first on a single inside the right-field line
Run 6: Ground ball through the left side
Run 7: Ground ball through the right side
Runs 8-9: Ground ball off the first baseman’s glove
Run 10: Bases loaded walk
The “best offense in baseball” isn’t hitting the ball over the wall and isn’t drawing walks. Instead, they are doing what they do every October, but this time Stanton isn’t carrying everyone else like he normally does, and Juan Soto isn’t there to make up for Judge.
5. Lose 2-1, 5-1, 6-1, 10-1, who gives a shit? A loss in the playoffs is a loss, and the Yankees were actually better off losing 10-1 than 2-1 in Game 1 of the ALDS because they didn’t have to unnecessarily burn Devin Williams or David Bednar in a loss, like they did in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.
I’m actually OK with the loss because it was the only game in the series the Blue Jays had to have. They had six days off, had their No. 1 starter going on extra rest and were home. The Yankees used their No. 4 (or even No 5. starter) had played three games in the previous four days — two of which were elimination games — and had to travel from New York to Toronto after finishing an elimination game just 41 hours prior. If the Blue Jays were to lose Game 1 given everything set up in their favor I would be writing about the potential for a Yankees sweep in these Thoughts.
6. I don’t think the Yankees will lose another game in this series. The Blue Jays lack a left-handed starter and in the next two games will throw Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber and have no true starter to use in Game 4 with Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt both injured. Yesavage has started three games in his career — totaling his entire major-league workload — and those starts came against the Rays twice and the Royals. Bieber made seven starts this season after missing most of this year and nearly all of last year following surgery (and the Yankees have prior postseason success against him). Even if this series goes five games, the Yankees would have Fried in that winner-take-all game against Gausman, which is a much different scenario than having Luis Gil.
7. Gil allowed two solo home runs and four hits total in his 2 2/3 innings of work on Saturday and Aaron Boone was right to take him out when he did. Gil, Tim Hill and Camil Doval combined to throw what was essentially a six-inning, two-run start and most games that would be good enough to win. But not when the offense doesn’t show up and not when Luke Weaver is the first guy out of the bullpen in a one-run game.
In using Weaver in the seventh inning of a 2-1 game, Boone was able to find out if he can use Weaver moving forward in a game the Yankees were already losing, and he quickly found out he can’t. Weaver faced three batters and didn’t retire any of them, just like he did in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. He went from the fourth-most trusted reliever in the bullpen to likely needing to be left off of the ALCS roster, if the Yankees reach the next round. Weaver said, “I don’t really feel like myself” after the game and you simply can’t let a guy pitch again in the postseason who says that.
8. Boone going to Weaver in that spot wasn’t his only blunder of the night. With the Yankees trailing 2-1 in the top of the seventh, Ryan McMahon singled to put the tying run on base. McMahon remained on first base for the first three pitches of Volpe’s at-bat before being removed for a pinch runner in Jose Caballero. Why did Boone wait to use Caballero as a pinch runner? “I changed my mind,” Boone said. So Boone wasted three pitches Caballero might have had a chance to steal on and then Caballero never even attempted to steal as Volpe struck out. Caballero did run on an 0-1 pitch to Austin Wells, but Wells grounded out to first to end the inning. So Boone wasted his most valuable pinch runner for a spot in which he didn’t get a chance to steal. For anyone who wants to praise Boone for letting Cam Schlittler go eight innings in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, just know the real Boone still exists and is still in there.
9. Just like in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, I expect Max Fried to pitch well. If he doesn’t then nothing else matters and the Yankees are the frauds I have thought the Blue Jays to be all season. This type of game is why the Yankees signed Fried and this very game is the kind the Yankees could always count on Andy Pettitte to win. Joe Torre always thought Game 2 of a series was the most important because you either have a chance to go up 2-0 or tie the series at 1. If the Yankees tie the series at 1 going back to New York for Games 3 and 4, they will have turned the best-of-5 into a best-of-3 and possess the home-field advantage they pissed away when they failed to win the division
10. The offense and mainly Judge, Stanton and Bellinger will likely determine the outcome in Game 2. If it’s a fifth straight postseason game with the trio doing nothing then the Yankees will likely be right back on the brink of elimination after a 68-hour break from the brink. It the trio or any one of them decides to show on Sunday then the Yankees will head home in control of the series.
I thought the Yankees would win this series in four before it started and the lopsided loss in Game 1 doesn’t change my mind. If the Yankees are to stay on track to win this series in four games, the offense will have to do something it hasn’t done this postseason: get production from its highest-paid bats.
Last modified: Oct 6, 2025
