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Tag: Eli Manning

Blogs • Columns Archive • Giants

Dec 19, 2012

This Is What a Second-Half Collapse Looks Like

The Giants are looking at the possibility of another second-half collapse. Eli Manning doesn’t seem too worried about it.

Last year the Giants were 6-2 and to open the second half of their schedule they lost to the 49ers in Week 9 even though it had been determined before the game that the Giants would lose to the 49ers. It had been determined because that’s what New York Giants football had been and has been in the second half of the regular season during the Tom Coughlin era.

I remember being scared on Nov. 13, 2011 after that loss to the 49ers because of the 5-0 start in 2009 that ended with an 8-8 season and the 7-4 start in 2010 that DeSean Jackson destroyed. So when the Giants lost to the 49ers and opened the second half of the 2011 season with a loss, it made me think, “Oh eff, this isn’t happening again, isn’t it?”

The media thought it could be happening again too. So they asked Coughlin about the Giants’ recent second-half collapses over and over the way Walter Sobchak (John Goodman) asks Larry if the paper in his the Ziploc bag is his homework in The Big Lebowski. But instead of “Is this your homework, Larry? Is this your homework, Larry? Is this your homework, Larry?” it was “Is this the start of another second-half collapse, Tom? Is this the start of another second-half collapse, Tom? Is this the start of another second-half collapse, Tom?”

Coughlin sat there like Larry just giving the media a confused and disgusted look while I chimed in from the side like The Dude with “We know it’s the start of another second-half collapse, Tom!” But unlike The Dude, I never told him that there were people threatening to cut off his manhood.

Eventually Coughlin responded to the media’s questions about the possibility of another second-half collapse.

“I can’t imagine why this question keeps coming up in terms of you have to take each year one at a time.”

That’s right. He really said that. Tom Coughlin couldn’t imagine why the media kept asking him about second-half collapses as if they had made up the idea that the Giants had been awful during his time as head coach in the second half of the regular season. How bad had the Giants been in the second half under Coughlin prior to that question being asked? Let’s take a look.

2004: The Giants start the year 5-2 with Kurt Warner starting and showing Eli the ropes. They lose back-to-back games to fall to 5-4 and start planning for the future by letting Eli start, which causes unrest and division in the locker room. Eli goes 1-6 in his first seven starts in the league, but wins the final game of the year against the Cowboys. The Giants finish the year at 6-10 and don’t make the playoffs.

2005: It’s Eli’s first full year. The Giants go 6-2 in the first half of the season then go 5-3 in the second half of the season. They make the playoffs for the first time since blowing a 24-point lead against the 49ers in the 2002 playoffs. The Giants lose 23-0 at home in the first round of the playoffs, as Eli goes 10-for-18 for 113 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. The Giants finish with just 132 total yards in the game. Bad finish.

2006: The Giants start the year 6-2, but are now 7-7, and entering Week 16, for them to clinch a playoff berth, they need one of two scenarios to happen.

1. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + Seattle win or tie.

OR

2. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + San Francisco loss or tie.

The Giants lose 30-7 to the Saints, but the Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks and 49ers all lose too, and the Giants basically hit the biggest parlay ever. Only the Eagles win, so the Giants just need to win in Week 17 against the Redskins and they make the playoffs at 8-8.

The Giants beat the Redskins to get into the playoffs at 8-8 thanks to a Giants single-game rushing record of 234 yards (on just 23 carries) from Tiki Barber. The Giants are just the ninth team in history to reach the postseason without a winning record. After starting the year 6-2, they finish the year 2-6. Then they lose 23-20 to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs on a David Akers 38-yard field goal with no time remaining.

2007: They start the year 0-2, but win six in a row after that. After their bye in Week 9, they finish the year 4-4, and with a 10-6 record, they are the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. They run the table on the road in the NFC playoffs, beating the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers and then beat the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

2008: They’re 11-1, but are now without Plaxico Burress for the rest of the year. The Giants finish the regular season 1-3 (they would have finished 0-4 if John Kasay didn’t miss a field goal for the Panthers in Week 16), but still get the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. They lose in the divisional round at home to the Eagles 23-11.

2009: They start the year 5-0, and then lose four games in a row. They come off their bye week to beat the Falcons in Week 11, but lose four of their last six games in embarrassing fashion to finish the year at 8-8, and miss the playoffs.

2010: They’re 6-2 after Week 9, but then they lose to Jon Kitna and the 2-6 Cowboys at home, and then they lose in Philadelphia the following week thanks to five turnovers and an Eli dive that turns into a fumble with the Giants down by seven and 2:51 left in the game. At 6-4, the Giants win three in a row, and have a chance to lock up the NFC East in Week 15 at home against the Eagles. They blow a 21-point lead with 7:18 left and lose. They have a chance to rebound the following week and still make the playoffs, but they lose 45-17 in Green Bay. In Week 17, they need a win against the Redskins and a Bears win over the Packers. They beat the Redskins 17-14 on the road, but the Bears lose to the Packers.

And then there’s 2011, which was a Tony Romo to Miles Austin completion away from being maybe the worst collapse of them all. After losing to the 49ers, the Giants lost the next three games to start the second half of their season 0-4, dropping them to 6-6. We all know what happened in the final five minutes and 41 seconds in Dallas in Week 14 and after that, but no one knew all of that would happen. No one could fathom that all of that would happen and happen essentially the same way it did four years before.

It’s been 13 months and a Super Bowl since Coughlin gave that puzzling answer to a legitimate question about what the eff goes on with his teams once the ninth game of the year rolls around the way I wonder what the eff happens to Mark Teixeira when the calendar turns to October. And I understand that Coughlin was doing what any coach would do by protecting his players and trying to stifle questions about the team’s horrifying collapses the way Willie Randolph didn’t want to talk about October 2006 or September 2007 in the spring of 2008. I can understand why Coughlin was irritated by the questioning, but I can’t understand how he couldn’t “imagine” the questions being asked.

But a year later, the weird answers haven’t stopped coming out of the Giants locker room. And this time it’s Eli Manning who’s making me think this Sunday against the Ravens or next Sunday against the Eagles might force me into a nine-month depression until Week 1 of the 2013 season. If you didn’t watch Sunday’s debacle in Atlanta and only listened to Eli answer questions after the game, you never would have guessed which team lost 34-0 and which team is now playing postseason games from here on out for the rest of the 2012 season. Here is Eli after the loss to the Falcons.

On summing up the loss to the Falcons.

“I think you’ve got to look at the good things and look at the bad and we had some opportunities. We got down in scoring range four times and got no points.”

Eli Manning has earned the Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera treatment from me. Well, he has almost earned it. Because I did slip twice early on Sunday and “Ladies and gentlemen” Eli after his first pick and then after his second pick. But for the most part, it’s those three and Henrik Lundqvist in the New York sports scene that I will never, ever, ever (OK, rarely ever) criticize.

But by being in that elite class, there comes responsibility. And if you’re going to open things by telling people to look at the “good” and the “bad” of a 34-0 loss then I can’t help you. What good could have come from being run out of the Georgia Dome? And if you’re going to give an example of something “good” that happened and it’s that you got deep into Falcons’ territory four times and scored zero points then maybe I should find something else to do on the next two Sundays.

On whether or not he is confused about which team is going to show up every Sunday.

“No. We could have executed better. I think it’s just a matter of certain plays.”

You’re not confused? Oh, OK. Because I haven’t been this confused since Nick Swisher bunted against Jon Lester with a runner on second and one out in 2011.

And “a matter of certain plays?” You lost 34-0. Thirty-four to nothing. That means you lost by five possessions. That’s a little more than a matter of “certain plays.” That’s a whole game of sucking. That’s 60 minutes of bad football.

On the team’s confidence.

“The confidence is great. Your confidence is high because of the coaches that we have, the character of the players we have, the talent of the players we have and our preparation will be good. We’re going to have a chance to go out there and perform well.”

I’m not sure how the team could have any confidence after that game, let alone “great” confidence heading to Baltimore. But, OK. I will take your word for it since I don’t really have any other choice.

And preparation? Let me just say that after the 34-0 loss several Giants said the team looked great in practice all week. You know who doesn’t reference how great the team looked in practice all week? Teams that win.

On how the team will react.

“I think we’re going to react great. If you say at the beginning of the season that you have two games left and you’ve got to win both of them to be in the playoffs, I think you’d take it. This is an opportunity you ask for. These are circumstances you want to be in. Could there be better circumstances? Yeah, of course. There can always be better, but there could be much worse.”

You want a last chance opportunity because you already blew every other opportunity? OK? But what if I said after Week 12, “You’re 7-4 with a chance to end the division race with a win over the Redskins in Week 13? Would you take that?” Because you had that opportunity and you let it get away.

“We like our chances. We know what we need to do and it’s right in front of us and we’ve got to go out there and win this game this week.”

And if you don’t? Actually, don’t answer that.

On the team reacting well to being in a must-win situation at the end of the year.

“I think just because we trust each other and our preparation is good and I think we just have good character guys and guys who understand the importance of this and understand that they treat their football careers very seriously and understand that this is a big game for us.”

If these “guys who understand the importance of this and understand that they treat their football careers very seriously” then wouldn’t those “guys” have not blown the Steelers game or been embarrassed by the Bengals or lost to the Redskins or done whatever you want to call what happened on Sunday?

On having the players on the team question Sunday’s performance.

“For the most part, I think we’ve been in every game that we’ve played in this season, had a chance to win every one except this one, which got out of hand. But for the most part we’ve been tight in every game and not every game is going to be perfect.”

34-0. Yes, I would say “out of hand” is a good way to describe it. At least we’re being honest now.

On playing well in must-win games in previous years.

“These are the circumstances you want to be in. You want to be fighting to make it in the playoffs and that’s just football and you understand it’s tough to make the playoffs. You’ve got to work. You’ve got to win games. You’ve got to win important games and this is a chance. This is as important a game as you can have, this upcoming game, and our mindset is the playoffs have started. This is it. This game right here is huge. It’s the most important game and it’s a must-win game for us.”

You’re right, this is a must-win game for the Giants. But all of the games for the Giants are must-win games from now until however long their 2012 season goes. And I should have known that would be the case before the season even started. It always is.

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Oct 25, 2012

NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week was another disappointing of picks following the best week of the year, but Week 8 looks promising to get back on track.

Eli Manning had to overcome a three-point deficit with 1:13 and three timeouts left. It was too much time and too many timeouts for the Redskins to stop. I knew it, MetLife Stadium knew it and you better believe Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett knew it. I was worried that the Giants might fall to 0-3 in the NFC East with an overtime loss to the Redskins, but I knew the game was at least going to overtime. The Giants were going to come back. I just didn’t know they were going to come back on the second play from their own 23.

Sunday’s game was the same old Giants. A perfect mix of undisciplined penalties, costly turnovers, missed opportunities and then a fourth-quarter comeback. It’s gotten to the point where I don’t even need to watch the first 58 minutes of the game because I know what’s going to happen in those 58 minutes and what’s going to happen in the last two minutes. It’s actually a better idea that I don’t watch the first 58 minutes of the game because it will save me from heartache, stress, increased blood pressure and the need to drink. The Giants are always going to be who they are for the first 58 minutes. They just need to continue to be who they are in the final two minutes.

***

Two weeks ago I just posted my picks without any take on the picks or the teams because my attention was on the Yankees postseason, which ended in embarrassing fashion. I went 8-6 that week. Last week I returned to a full picks column (on Friday instead of Thursday) and I went 6-7-1 with my sixth under-.500 week in seven weeks. The season is 41 percent over and after this week it will be 47 percent over. Halloween is in six days and Thanksgiving is in four weeks. It’s getting late early for my picks and it’s time to make a run.

Week 8 picks … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Tampa Bay
I talked with Phil Simms for CBS Local Sports on Monday and he praised the Minnesota Vikings and their great defense and their system. He talked glowingly about every aspect of the Vikings including their outdated dome and their fans. It made me a believer in a team that’s already 5-2 with a bandwagon that’s quickly filling up, as you can see by another somewhat surprising home line. If the man who started the “I’m going to Disney World!” line is sold on the Vikings then so am I.

ST. LOUIS RAMS -7 over New England
The Patriots are giving seven points on the road? I can’t even ask that question with a straight face. Is it 2007? Is George W. Bush still the President? Did I miss something? Are the Patriots not 4-3 with losses to the Cardinals and Seahawks and a home overtime win over Mark Sanchez and the Darrelle Revis/Santonio Holmes-less Jets? Is this real life?

The Patriots have the same public perception that the Yankees have: they’re supposed to win. The difference is that the Yankees won just three years ago while the Patriots last won eight years ago. But even as the Patriots’ elite status begins to crumble and they move closer and closer to the pack in an awful AFC East, people still want to believe that the Patriots are the Patriots of the last decade. But they’re not and people like Mike Hurley won’t accept this until the bottom finally falls out for them and they miss the postseason.

Until that secondary gets fixed and Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez aren’t able to pick it apart, I’m not picking the Patriots to cover a touchdown with or without Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Indianapolis
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” The Colts run defense is bad and Chris Johnson might be back. That’s enough to scare me from the Colts. Well, that and in their two road games they have lost by 20 and 26.

CLEVELAND +3 over San Diego
I will do anything to pick against the Chargers. Anything. Even if “anything” means picking the Browns.

PHILADELPHIA -2 over Atlanta
If I really believe the Falcons aren’t as good as their 6-0 record suggests or as good as people want them to be then I have no choice, but to pick the Eagles here. As much as it pains me to pick the Eagles to win a game when it looks like another season without a postseason for the Eagles and another season full or dysfunction and humiliation and maybe Michael Vick’s last stand as a starting quarterback in the NFL, I have to take the Eagles if I want to continue to tell people that I don’t think the Falcons are the class of the NFC. I don’t have a choice.

DETROIT -2.5 over Seattle
I don’t want to pick any game that involves the Seahawks ever again. They screwed me (along with the replacement refs) against the Packers. They screwed me (along with Nate Ebner) against the Patriots. They screwed me (along with Jim Harbaugh, who decided to decline a holding penalty that would have resulted in a safety and a nine-point win) against the 49ers. Nothing good can come from any game involving the Seahawks and I will pick against them for the rest of 2012. And oh, I hate Pete Carroll. So there’s that too.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Miami
Vegas thinks the Dolphins are better than the Jets with this line, but I don’t think they are. But if I had to pick the one game in Week 8 that I wouldn’t be surprised to lose, it’s this one.

CHICAGO -7.5 over Carolina
The Bears are the biggest threat to the 2012 New York Football Giants in the NFC. The Panthers are the biggest threat to a generation of kids growing up in Carolina, but liking another NFL team.

PITTSBURGH -4.5 over Washington
This line is what it is because the Redskins stayed with the Giants at MetLife last week. But anyone who knows the Giants know that home field is a disadvantage to them. There are two guarantees in the NFL: The Giants will always play up and down to their competition and they will always suck at home. That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact. It’s science. The Redskins were not allowing a 77-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz away from being in first place in the NFC East, but now they are 3-4 and going to Heinz Field where a real home-field advantage exists. DeAngelo Hall might want to start making excuses for his team’s defense now to use after Sunday’s game.

Oakland +1 over KANSAS CITY
The Raiders might be 2-4 and 0-3 on the road with an average loss of 32-13, but Kansas City is 1-5 and Brady Quinn is starting.

New York Giants -2.5 over DALLAS
Eli Manning has never lost at Cowboys Stadium. The Giants are 3-0 in Dallas since the new stadium opened and have put up 33, 41 and 37 points there and this is the best offense the Giants have had since the Cowboys got a new home.

DENVER -6 over New Orleans
The Saints held on for a comeback win in Tampa Bay in Week 7. (That sentence should be all you need to know about the 2012 Saints.) The Saints have won back-to-back games even if the first of these wins was a guarantee with the Chargers going to the SuperDome as Drew Brees tried to break Johnny Unitas’ record and if the second game was against the Buccaneers, who are the Buccaneers. They are now 2-4 and giving Who Dat Nation a giant case of blue balls with the ultimate tease that they are capable of going on an extended winning streak to bring them back into the playoff picture. If this were a Disney movie that would happen. If this were even a made-for-TV movie it might happen. But this is real life and in real life the Saints have the Broncos in Denver coming off a bye. Then they have the Eagles and Falcons before the Raiders, followed by the 49ers, Falcons and Giants. The Saints’ season ended after Week 3 when they fell to 0-3 against the easiest part of their schedule.

San Francisco -7 over ARIZONA
Yes, I’m hoping that Alex Smith can put up points against a defense that has only allowed 21 points once this season. It’s better than hoping that John Skelton can put up any points against a defense that has only allowed more than 19 points to Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Season: 47-55-2

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Oct 19, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks

The first over-.500 week came last week, so the pressure is on to keep it going in Week 7.

You can already hear people saying it and it’s exactly what I didn’t want to have happen.

“The Giants are the best team in the NFL.”

I’m not sure if there’s a “best” team in the NFL anymore as the parity in the league has gotten out of control and no team is safe. There’s a good chance the Giants are the “best” team in the league right now, but “right now” only lasts through Monday night and by then that title could be stripped. For now, let’s keep it quiet and between us because we don’t want the Giants to know that there is hype building around them.

The last thing the Giants need at 4-2 with their ridiculous schedule is to start thinking they are the team to beat and better than they are. They obviously didn’t care about being defending champions when they lost to the Cowboys at home on Opening Night and they didn’t want to listen to Eli Manning when he preached about “getting off to a fast start” before they had to dig out of double-digit hole against the Browns two weeks ago.

History has shown us that the Giants succeed when there is doubt surrounding and when the attention is elsewhere like in New England, Philadelphia or Dallas. It only makes sense that the Giants would start to gain respect the same week they are playing the Redskins (a team that went 2-0 against the Giants in 2011 with Rex Grossman as their quarterback) at MetLife Stadium (a place where the Giants have trouble winning despite it being their home). This matchup has “letdown” written all over it and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants take this game lightly after winning in San Francisco. That’s who the Giants are and they’re never changing. I don’t think I want them to.

***

Last week I said I didn’t have time to give a take on the teams and the picks, and I didn’t. I was drafting off the Yankees postseason and I still am even though they have been eliminated. It will likely take me until the end of October to re-energize and they aren’t even playing anymore. I miss baseball and it hasn’t been 24 hours since the season ended. It’s going to be a long five-plus months until Opening Day.

I had been chasing an over-.500 record in my picks for five weeks before finishing 8-6 in Week 6. That also happened to be the same week I just picked the game without writing anything about any of the games. So you would think that I would probably do the same thing this week to see if lightning could strike twice, but I’m not going to mail it in this week even if I didn’t do the picks for Thursday like I promised I would for the rest of the season two weeks ago. (Give me a break! The baseball season just ended!) Even though I’m experiencing full-blown depression from the Yankees being swept in the ALCS, I’m going to pick myself up off the mat and do what the Yankees couldn’t do in the ALCS: my job.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Seattle
A push thanks to Jim Harbaugh declining the holding penalty in the end zone that would have resulted in a safety and a cover and a win to start Week 7. But I wouldn’t expect anything less. Nothing comes easy in this league and especially not a Thursday win to get things rolling after an 8-6 week.

BUFFALO -3 over Tennessee
I wish I knew why I’m always picking the Bills to cover spreads and win games. Maybe it’s because my grandmother is from Buffalo? I’m not sure. But I’m doing it again. Try to stop me.

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Arizona
All of a sudden the Vikings are the 2007 Patriots and getting exceedingly high numbers each week. But I have backed Kevin Kolb before and I’m not about to again.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Cleveland
I’m not sure what happened to the Colts last week against the Jets because well, it’s the Jets, and the Colts were coming off an emotional home win against the Packers. I wish I could see the line for this game if it had been played in Week 6 instead of Week 7 with the Colts coming off beating the Packers and the Browns being winless.

Baltimore +6.5 over HOUSTON
This is all about the points.

Green Bay -5.5 over ST. LOUIS
I think the Packers sensed the urgency on Monday Night Football in Houston and answered the bell. I was hoping they would finish the season at 8-8 or maybe even 7-9 and be one less team to worry about in the playoffs, but that’s not going to happen. The Packers are back and they have the St. Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona before their bye week. Get in on the Packers now before their lines hit double digits in the next two weeks.

Dallas -2.5 over CAROLINA
A Dallas win in Carolina isn’t good for the Giants in the division or for more controversy surrounding the Cowboys, but picking the Panthers and Cam Newton isn’t good for anyone.

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 over Washington
There’s a good chance my friend Ray (the biggest Redskins fan I know) won’t be talking to me for a few weeks after this beatdown. I know he won’t leave his home and his fiancée and his dog to watch the game with me, but I wish he would because this game is going to force him to drink, and Drunk Ray is always a good time.

TAMPA BAY +2 over New Orleans
At 0-4, the Saints had nothing left to play for this season except for Drew Brees breaking Johnny Unitas’ record in Week 5, and that’s why I picked the Saints over the Chargers that week. But now that the record is broken and the moment is over, the Saints are a 1-4 team trailing in their division by 4 ½ games to the undefeated Falcons. The Saints’ season is over, and after a week off they are probably wishing they had the next 11 weeks off too.

New York Jets +10.5 over NEW ENGLAND
This could get ugly and make the 34-0 beating the Jets took at MetLife from the 49ers look like nothing. But that’s a lot of points for a team to get on the road against a division opponent even if that team has Mark Sanchez as a quarterback and no-name receivers. The Patriots are 3-3 and let the Seahawks come back against them last week and I’m sure the NFL has already penciled in Tom Brady as the FedEx Air Player of the Week for Week 7. But I can’t shake the notion that friend/enemy (frenemy?) Mike Hurley has pretty much guaranteed a Patriots blowout in this game and when Mike Hurley guarantees anything Patriots related, the opposite happens. Giants fans for Jets

OAKLAND -4.5 over Jacksonville
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” No one screws me over like the Raiders, but I can accept it and that’s what this matchup comes down to: Who would I be less upset with screwing me over? The answer: Oakland.

CINCINNATI +1 over Pittsburgh
It’s tough for me to pick Andy Dalton over Ben Roethlisberger here considering the Steelers’ season is getting away from them. But these two teams are essentially the same team and since Week 10 last year when the Steelers won in Cincinnati they have won just two road games in Kansas City and Cleveland.

CHICAGO -6.5 over Detroit
I don’t think the Bears want to hear about how the Giants never get respect around the league for being an elite team because you rarely hear anyone talk about the Bears. Two years ago they went to the NFC Championship Game, last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler got injured and they’re already 4-1 this year. This is the last team in the NFC I would want the Giants to have to face, especially at Soldier Field.

Last Week: 8-6-0
Season: 42-48-1

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Oct 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and it’s time for things to turn around.

The same old Giants. That’s who the New York Football Giants are. A second Super Bowl in four years didn’t change who they were between Super Bowl XLVI and Week 1 against the Cowboys, so why would I think that back-to-back wins would change who they are before they played the Eagles? The Giants will let you down, build you back up, suck you back in and then pull the rug out of from underneath you and if two championships weren’t enough to change who they are then I just have to accept that things will never change.

I’m not sure what Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride were thinking when Eli threw a deep ball to Ramses Barden at the end of Sunday night’s game. It was almost as if they thought they were trailing by four instead of two and it was that play that led to a loss after they were bailed out by the refs to extend the game.

The Giants had a chance to steal a game in Philadelphia on Sunday night and they gave it away. Now they are 2-2 on the season, 0-2 in the division and have the only real easy winnable game left on their schedule this week in the Browns. A loss on Sunday would be as devastating as the loss against the Seahawks was last year before a series of improbable events led to the Giants winning the division at 9-7. If you believe in miracles happening in back-to-back seasons then you don’t consider Sunday a must-win game for the Giants. I’m not one of those people.

***

As for the picks, the NFL season is 24 percent over and I’m still in search of the elusive over-.500 week. That isn’t good. I have gone back to my roots and I’m stopping with the Thursday pick on Twitter and the rest of the picks on Friday. It’s time to shake things up and it’s Thursday for the picks going forward.

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Arizona -1.5 over ST. LOUIS
Any other year and this is the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But not in 2012 where te cardinals are undefeated and the rams are respectable. I got so used to just knowing that every NFC west game over the last few years was three point game an just take the points but not anymore. The NFC west is longer the worst division in football. That title now belongs to the AFC east

Atlanta -3 over WASHINGTON
The Falcons’ egg is coming. I can feel it. You can feel it. Everyone can feel it. I’m going to pick them one of these weeks when they lose and lose big and now it’s just a matter of correctly guessing when that inevitable week is going to come. It makes sense that it would come on the road against the Redskins, but I like it better to come next week at home against the Raiders leading into the bye week because why wouldn’t it come then?

Philadelphia +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I feel like I’m picking between the same team here. I can either go with the Team That Lets You Down that is home or the Team That Lets You Down that is on the road. When there are points, take them.

Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
If the game took place in Week 1 this line would be through the roof. The Packers are still dangerous despite what the first four weeks might suggest, and I’m not ready to give up on Aaron Rodgers’ covering ability yet.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 over Cleveland
If the Giants can’t blow out Brandon Weeden and the winless Browns at home with their schedule then pack up the balls because this season isn’t going anywhere.

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Miami
The Bengals have been so good to me this year. I picked against them in Week 1 and I picked for them in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and it’s all gone according to plan. I would feel like I’m stabbing them in the back if I pick the Dolphins to cover against them in Cincinnati. But at the same time, the Dolphins have destroyed me this season, so maybe I should finally give in and pick them? I know that WFAN’s John Jastremski will tell me how the 1-3 Dolphins could be 3-1 if two plays had gone their way and he’s right, but I just can’t do it because they’re still the Dolphins.

Baltimore -6.5 over KANSAS CITY
The 2012 Chiefs and I are done. We’re finished. I don’t even want my stuff back. Just don’t call me or text me. I want them out of my life. I’m not going to let them hurt me anymore. And it’s too bad too because I really like Romeo Crennel.

Seattle +3 over CAROLINA
This game was so close to being the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” So effing close. The one thing holding it back is that the Seahawks may or may not be good (and probably aren’t good), but that decision hasn’t been finalized yet.

Chicago -6 over JACKSONVILLE
Chicago has been good to me and the Jaguars can’t change that.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings! You’re the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” Congratulations!

Four weeks ago I never thought I would see the day when the 2012 Vikings would be giving anyone 5 1/2 points in a football game. Maybe 5 1/2 points in a PowerPoint presentation on how to set your franchise back at least a decade when you’re a field goal away from the Super Bowl, but not actual points in an actual game. But then again, four weeks ago I didn’t know the 2012 Titans existed.

Denver +7 over NEW ENGLAND
I interned for 890 ESPN Radio and the legendary Mike Felger in 2006-07. On Nov. 5, 2006 for the Patriots-Colts Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Week 9, I had to go sit outside in freezing weather as the ESPN Radio tent across from the stadium. The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 7-0 and it was the height of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. People were insane for this game. The place was buzzing like I had never seen a regular season NFL game before and the scene hours before the game made it feel like a Super Bowl. It wasn’t buzzing because it was Patriots-Colts. It was buzzing because Peyton Manning was in town and Peyton vs. Brady will do that. Put these two guys on any teams and the atmosphere will be the same. It could be Patriots vs. Colts or Patriots vs. Broncos or Browns vs. Bills or Hoboken High School vs. North Bergen High School, it doesn’t matter as long as Brady and Manning are the quarterbacks. The Colts won 27-20 thanks to 326 yards and two touchdowns from Manning and four interceptions from Brady.

We haven’t had a Brady-Manning game since Nov. 21, 2010 in Week 11. It felt weird in 2008 when the Patriots played the Colts without Peyton and it felt weird in 2011 when they met again without Peyton.

This game on Sunday should be great. Well, really I just want it to be great because the Yankees are going to get the Sunday night slot and that means Giants at 1:00, this game at 4:25 and Yankees at 8:37. No, I’m not leaving the couch on Sunday.

Buffalo +10 over SAN FRANCISCO
What have the Bills done for me lately? Nothing really other than getting blown out by the Patriots, so I guess that has to count for something. In this league it’s risky to back a double-digit spread, but is it a good idea to take the Bills on the West Coast against maybe the best home team in football after being embarrassed by the Patriots last week? Of course not. But when have I ever been one for good ideas when it comes to NFL picks? But where has reason and logic gotten anyone in the 2012 NFL?

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Diego
Drew Brees and the Saints have nothing left to play for at 0-4 except for his touchdown streak. Saints fans know that their season is over, so if they’re going to bring their “A” game again in 2012 it’s going to come on Sunday night against the Chargers for this record. It’s not like I needed a reason to pick against the Chargers, but this is one.

Houston -9 over NEW YORK JETS
Getting nine points at home on Monday night football isn’t a good look. Th Jets’ season is in turmoil even more so than it has been in any other year under Rex Ryan and everyone is starting to find out that maybe Mike Tannenbaum isn’t the “smart SOB” he called himself in Hard Knocks two years ago.

Last Week: 7-8-0
Season: 27-35-1

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Sep 7, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season and that means it’s the first week of picks.

The other day I talked about seasonal depression. Let’s talk about real depression. Since Tuesday, the Yankees have lost their AL East lead completely then regained it the following night only to lose it again the next night and the Giants lost on Opening Night at home to the Cowboys. But I really shouldn’t worry about that since it’s not like the Giants have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL or anything. And oh yeah, the NHL still isn’t close to preventing a second lockout in eight years. I’m not really a Coldplay fan, but this seems like a good time to get into them.

Before Super Bowl XLVI I promised a lot of things and said a lot of things that sort of got thrown out the window in the heat of Wednesday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys. How badly did I fail to hold up my end of the bargain? Let’s ask Maury Povich.

“Neil, you said if the Giants win for the second time in four years and beat the Patriots again and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick again and beat all the Patriots fans you went to college with in Boston again and beat the city of Boston again, you won’t care if the Giants don’t make the playoffs for the next 20 years. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI, you would never say a bad thing about Kevin Gilbride again. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that when it comes to the two-minute drill defense, you wouldn’t complain about the Giants’ inability to make a stop in the final minutes of either half anymore. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that if the receivers make numerous drops in a game, you said you would no longer complain about the excessive miscatches. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

There were a lot more things I said and promised, but I freaked out on Maury, gave the finger to the booing audience, threw a chair, ran behind the set and curled up in a corner and bawled my eyes out while Maury tried to console me with his expert counselor. That’s how bad things were on Wednesday night against the Cowboys.

We always hear about the “same old Jets,” but what about the “same old Giants?” Opening Night was the textbook example of what the Giants have put me through over the years, and while I understand anyone disgusted with me for being upset with a team that is coming off their second championship in four years, but at the same time if you’re not a Giants fan then you just don’t get it.

So I lied. We all do it. We all make promises to win a championship, but when that new season starts, all you want is another championship, and another and another and another. Look at Boston. In October 2004, people were willing to give up their life savings and their homes and their hair and their limbs and their children for a Red Sox World Series. They got it, but a year later those same people were devastated when the Red Sox were eliminated in the ALDS by the White Sox. If the Cubs win the 2013 World Series, their fans will want to win in 2014. And if the Jets win the Super Bowl this year, their fans will want to win it again next year. (Of course neither of those hypothetical situations will come true.) It’s the nature of the beast, and you can’t change it.

I want to apologize to Kevin Gilbride for granting him the empty promise of “Ladies and gentlemen!” immunity and I want to apologize for all of the promises I didn’t keep, but now that the new season has started and the Giants are 0-1, all I can think about is playoff football again (since there might not be playoff baseball for the Yankees) and I remember what it’s like to not have your team in the playoffs, and it sucks.

I’m still telling myself that if the Giants become the Jets this season and don’t make the playoffs, I will still have XLII and XLVI. But I know I’m just lying to myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

***

Last season, my NFL picks went about as well as the Bay of the Pigs. I started off hot, got warm, got lukewarm, got cold, got ice cold and then froze. I did manage to redeem myself in the postseason, but by then it was too late to salvage the year. However, I think my success was due to the Giants’ success, so I had less time to worry about the picks because I was focused on the Giants and writing about them on their second magical run.

Week 1 is my favorite week to pick games for. Why? Well, you get a clean slate (well, almost clean since I already lost the Giants game on Wednesday night) and because all you have to go off is what you have learned from the end of last season and the offseason. Once every team plays a game, everything you have taken in over the last seven months gets masked by how that team performed in Week 1 and it only gets worse as they play more and more games.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Dallas
I picked this one on Twitter on Wednesday. How about a mulligan? No? OK.

CHICAGO -10 over Indianapolis
I think there are three places that Andrew Luck didn’t want to begin his NFL career: the SuperDome, Lambeau Field and Soldier Field. Unfortunately for Luck, he will make his first career start in Chicago at Soldier Field against one of the best defenses in the game. I actually thought this line was low given the Bears’ success last season before Jay Cutler got hurt and given how bad the Colts were last year.

Here is how Peyton Manning’s rookie season started:

Week 1 vs. Miami: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 2 at New England: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 3 at New York Jets: Loss, 0 TD, 2 INT
Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT

Peyton started the year 0-4 with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He didn’t get his first win until Week 5 against the Chargers and would go just 2-14 that season. If things were that bad for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, I don’t see how they will be that much better for Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012.

Philadelphia -9.5 over CLEVELAND
You don’t know how bad I want to pick the Browns here, but I just can’t and Brandon Weeden is why. If the Eagles are as good as everyone thinks they are and the Browns are as bad as everyone thinks they are, this line could be 14 and I would still have to take the Eagles.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
On Friday, I did a podcast with my friend and crazy Jets fan Tim Duff. The optimism glowing from him over the phone was what I imagine it’s like talking to a Kansas City Royals fan on the eve of Opening Day. There’s just so much hope and so much promise and the new-car smell and feel of a clean season is very powerful. But I have a feeling Tim is going to be hungover on the train from MetLife back to the city on Sunday afternoon wondering why he even cares about the Jets.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Washington
I watched maybe three minutes of preseason football. And because I’m not a college football guy, the only RG3 I have ever seen is on highlights. Last season, Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl champions went into the SuperDome and got absolutely destroyed. So am I supposed to think that the absence of Sean Payton is going to be enough for an unknown rookie quarterback and a bad team to go in and play a tight game against the best home-field advantage in the league? No, I’m not.

New England -6 over TENNESSEE
I wonder how much money the Patriots have cost people picking them to cover since 2007. The Patriots continue to get incredible respect, and they have earned it, but if their defense is as bad as it was last year, this will be a pick I regret. On the other hand, I can’t talk myself into taking the Titans and watching the Patriots score touchdowns on their first three possessions, so I have to play it safe here.

Jacksonville +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The year after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game I was picking the Vikings every week to open the season. What did they do? They started 0-2 then they were 2-5 then 3-7 and finished 6-10. The 2010 Vikings destroyed me and I’m still not over it. The scars are deep enough that I’m taking Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars on the road to open the season.

HOUSTON -13 over Miami
The only team the Browns have to worry about giving them a run for the worst record in the league is the Dolphins. Hard Knocks didn’t do the Jets any favors in the summer of 2010 when it came to making unnecessary headlines and this summer Hard Knocks didn’t do the Dolphins any favors by exposing just how atrocious they are going to be this season. Meanwhile Houston is a legitimate contender and the AFC South favorite. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs and the Dolphins are once again the laughingstock of the NFL, we are going to need to make sure there is someone watching John Jastremski around the clock.

DETROIT -7.5 over St. Louis
It shouldn’t be as easy to win money as it was when you picked against the Rams last season, but it was.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Atlanta
This isn’t a popular pick since Matt Ryan wins the Battle of the Matts over Matt Cassel, but when you take the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome it’s like taking a fish out of the water.

San Francisco +5 over GREEN BAY
If there’s one game that has “REGRET” written over it in red pen and capital letters, it’s this one. Yes, I’m really taking Alex Smith in Green Bay on Opening Day. This feels so wrong. But at least I know what goes through Joe Girardi’s head when he starts Steve Pearce against left-handed pitchers.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers have Cam Newton and Steve Smith and a good running game and a good defense. The Bucs have none of those things.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA
An NFC West matchup! I always love these. I guess I have to take the Seahawks since they know who their starting quarterback is.

DENVER -2 over PITTSBURGH
Tim Tebow’s Broncos beat the Steelers in Denver in the playoffs. So why wouldn’t Peyton Manning’s Broncos have an easier time doing the same thing?

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cincinnati
Everything points to this being too many points for a division matchup that isn’t the Patriots against the Dolphins.

OAKLAND -1 over San Diego
When I first saw this line, I couldn’t believe the Chargers weren’t favored because no one gets undeserved respect like the Chargers do. For a team that has done nothing to earn respect from Vegas over the last few seasons, picking against the Chargers has been a good way to earn some easy wins, and I’m not going to shy away from my love of picking against them now.

Season: 0-1-0

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