David Price – Page 3 – Keefe To The City

Apr 17, 2015

Evan Longoria Is the Rays’ Derek Jeter

The Rays lose players to big-market teams seemingly every year, but Evan Longoria has been the exception and is the one true icon in the team’s short 18-year history.

The Yankees are in trouble. With three straight series losses to open the season, the Yankees have to get back on track before their remaining seven-game road trip ends. If they don’t, the season could be lost before it even begins.

With the Yankees into Tampa Bay for their first series against the Rays, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about losing Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers, having a rookie manager in Kevin Cash take over for Joe Maddon and the frustration of watching the roster turn over due to finances.

Keefe: This offseason you lost general manager Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers and manager Joe Maddon to the Rays. Both men played an integral part in the success of the Rays from shedding their Devil Rays image to becoming a consistent winning and postseason team.

What were your feelings on the two leaving for big-market teams?

Russell: There’s so much I could say about each of these men, in appreciation, in admiration, and in heartfelt sorrow that they are gone. The Rays only had a few faces of the franchise, and these two were the primary names on that list.

Andrew Friedman’s departure was at some level expected, far back in my mind I thought he’d leave one day. His interviews and dinners about town had come and gone in the past, but after 10 years with the franchise (nine as de facto GM), his leaving didn’t add pain the the surprise.

Friedman is gone but the franchise is in a great place. The brain trust he built stayed in tact when he left for L.A., and his departure freed up the staff to make some moves that other wise might not have happened, like getting value for Joel Peralta or Wil Myers, who both looked pretty busted last season, despite their pedigrees.

Joe Maddon was different, just a week prior he was adamant about his commitment to the franchise, and once he was gone the front office was legitimately stunned. As were the players, and the coaching staff. The Rays believe some tampering occurred on the part of the Cubs, who hired him seven days later, and that investigation is still ongoing, even though Manfred said it would conclude by Opening Day. So there’s something fishy to the situation.

I don’t blame Joe Maddon for leaving, the opportunity to become a legend with the Cubs is something I think I would have pursued if I were in his position. It just happened in the wrong way.

Keefe: With Maddon leaving, Kevin Cash became a rookie manager and sort of under-the-radar selection for the Rays as their new manager. Just four years removed from the league, Cash, who had a short stint with the Yankees in 2009, was suddenly a manager in the majors after serving as part of Terry Francona’s Cleveland staff for two years.

Who did you want to be the Rays manager after Maddon left?

Russell: I’m not sure I had an opinion on who the manager would be among the list of first round finalists, but once it was narrowed down to Don Wakamatsu and Kevin Cash, I’m glad it was the latter.

Cash is a feel good story, a local kid who played Little League and went to high school in Tampa, then played in multiple College World Series at Florida State before becoming a Devil Ray. Coming back is a welcome home.

He scrapped his way into a major league career, transitioning to catcher in Cape Cod ball before joining the Blue Jays, and he won World Series rings with Boston (2007) and New York (2009) as the third catcher. He’s got the right mind and is super relatable in the clubhouse. He’s ridden those busses and he’s also found success.

Cash was an advanced scout for the Blue Jays, then the bullpen coach for the Indians, his second turn under Terry Francona (the guy who beat Joe Maddon for the job in Boston). He identified Yan Gomes for them, and helped turn around the careers of guys like Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber. He’s the kind of guy who destined to be a manager, and his hiring (while the youngest in the game with no true managerial experience) lends itself to the underdog role this Rays team needed to embrace.

Keefe: Tampa Bay was my favorite non-Yankees team before 2008, which is before they got good, and I don’t have a favorite non-Yankees team. Maybe it was because they were an easy win for the Yankees and a standings-padding opponent, which helped the Yankees to the division title year after year. But I enjoyed watching the Rays’ young talent and Lou Piniella manage that young talent even if it seemed like they would never put it together.

In 2008 they did it put it together. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993 and I rooted for the Rays in the postseason, mainly because I knew they could beat the Red Sox. Whn you look at the 2008 Rays roster, the only player left is Evan Longoria, who has been the face of the franchise and is the one true face of the franchise since the team’s inception.

Seven years ago when you thought about the Rays’ future, did you think Longoria would be the only player still with the organization from that World Series team?

Russell: I’m glad we’ve been able to fall out of your good graces, because the Yankee fan presence in Tampa can be quite unbearable.

Roster turnover is an expectation, and seven years later who could I have reasonably expected to remain? David Price and James Shields might be the only clear answers, maybe Carlos Pena if he’d kept his career in tact.

James Shields was the only type who had the talent and mindset to take on a second contract extension like Longoria, and David Price’s control ran through this season. Perhaps starter Matt Garza could have remained, but he was volatile and valuable to the market, so his departure was a bit more expected.

It’s worth mentioning that Ben Zobrist was a part of that 2008 team’s bench, but using a 2008 mindset I don’t think he was expected to become one of the five most valuable hitters in the game, so his mention would be unfair. As for other big ticket names, Upton and Crawford were destined to leave after long turns with the franchise far before 2015 rolled around.

If I may, this is probably a good moment to say kudos to Longoria for signing two team-friendly deals with Tampa Bay.

Speaking to a fanbase that has enjoyed several long Yankee careers, you need to understand he’s all we’ve got. Our franchise is only nearly 20 years old, that’s not a long time to retire the same numbers you all have in that cemetery or whatever that garden at Yankee Stadium is called.

Longoria knew he wanted to be a one-franchise man. He’ll be the first bronze statue one day as well. I’m looking forward to it.

Keefe: After Longoria, David Price was the second face of the team (at least from an outsider’s perspective). His trade was inevitable and now he is doing for the Tigers what he did for the Rays.

Is it hard to watch Price pitch for another team after being a homegrown player for the Rays, or are you used to the idea of superstars leaving because of finances?

Russell: It’s an unfortunate reality, truly it is. Your perception isn’t wrong, he really was the hearbeat of the team in a lot of ways. He’s still texting the Rays starters before they take the mound and offering encouragements. Losing him was hard.

The Rays don’t have the money to lock down many players, and the farm system has not been well stocked through the draft lately, so trading players has been the best avenue to bring the future to bear without going into an Astros re-build, or having to constantly trade away what remains like the Athletics.

So here we are in 2015 without David Price. I’m used to the idea, yes, but it’s no less frustrating. That excitement to watch him take the mound never really goes away. You always knew he was likely to give you something special.

Keefe: The Rays entered the season with an over/under win total of 79 after a 77-85 season in 2014. The turnover on the roster since last season has been immense and the 2015 Opening Day Rays are basically unrecognizable from the 2014 Opening Day Rays.

However, the Rays have gotten off to a strong 6-4 start despite some tough first-week opponents to once again prove that no matter who the Rays lose, they seem to find a way to stay competitive.

What are your expectations for this season?

Russell: Always take the over on the Tampa Bay Rays. This team has pressed into the playoffs in all but two seasons since 2008.

That said, injuries are a bear, and this year we might have 10 players on the disabled list before the week is out. The Rays starting depth is limited to the No. 2, No. 4, No. 7 and No. 9 starters from the depth chart, if we’re counting Matt Moore (recovering from Tommy John – returning in June) as the No. 5. The current fifth starter is the long man, and he’s laid an egg in both of his outings thus far.

Meanwhile, the Rays are going through an AL East bloodbath – only one series (already played against the Marlins) from Opening Day to May 6 is against a team outside the division. Right now the Rays just need to tread water, without their 1B, 2B, DH and maybe even without Longoria for one or two games after a hit-by-pitch last night.

It’s not going to be easy, but if this team can break even through April, I think they stand a decent chance of remaining competitive in the division, and following the projections from Baseball Prospectus to place second in the division around 85 wins.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 26, 2014

A Similar Situation for Yankees-Tigers Series

The Yankees’ three-game series in Detroit will likely serve as the turning point of their season one way or another after they spent the last week climbing out of their hole.

A five-game winning streak has the Yankees miraculously alive in the AL East and on the doorstep for the second wild card. This week’s three-game series in Detroit could put the Yankees in prime position to clinch a playoff berth over the the final 30 games of the year or it could put the Yankees back in the same hole they just spent the past week climbing out of.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time in Detroit and the final time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about what has happened to the Tigers since the trade deadline, the breakout season from Rick Porcello and the futures of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Keefe: I saw on Sunday that you tweeted, “Tomorrow, we are all Yankees fans,” with the Yankees playing a makeup game in Kansas City. The Yankees got the job done in Kansas City with an 8-1 win on Monday night and with a Mariners’ loss in Texas, the Yankees now trail the second wild-card spot by just 2.5 games. I know I shouldn’t be excited about the Yankees being in play for the second wild card, but that’s where injuries and an underachieving offense have left me. But your jump on the Yankees bandwagon only lasted a few hours as they now head to Detroit for a three-game series with your Tigers in a series that both teams desperately need to win.

On the day of the trade deadline, everyone sort of penciled in the Tigers and A’s for the ALCS because of their moves to strengthen the already strongest rotations in the league. But over the last four weeks, the Tigers and A’s have played themselves out of running away with their respective divisions and the Tigers aren’t even holding on to a playoff spot right now.

When the Yankees played the Tigers at the beginning of August, they looked like a different offensively and it was almost as if Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez didn’t beat you then no one would. Did the Tigers make one too many moves that actually made them worse since July 31?

Rogacki: I think that the pair of moves the Tigers made at the deadline definitely improved the team, especially given how well David Price has pitched so far. Price has a 2.35 ERA and 2.90 FIP in four starts in a Tigers uniform, but is just 1-1 thanks to a lack of run support. Price tossed a one-hitter against his former club in his last start, but lost 1-0 on an unearned run.

Losing Austin Jackson at the deadline definitely hurt the offense — especially given how he had been hitting in the second half — but the team’s struggles largely fall on the big bats in the lineup. Ian Kinsler had a .515 OPS in the second half prior to the team’s last road trip and scored just eight runs in a month-long span. Miguel Cabrera’s .820 OPS is excellent for most mortals, but far below what the Tigers expect of their $292 million man. Victor Martinez took a little while to recover from an oblique strain that hobbled him in July, but has turned things around with a .992 OPS in August.

The hitters aren’t the only problem, though. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have both missed starts this month, leading the Tigers to use guys like Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer in the rotation, with left-hander Kyle Lobstein tentatively scheduled to start on Thursday. The team’s lack of starting pitching depth is finally starting to be exposed, but with Verlander already back and Sanchez not far behind, the team looks poised to climb back into the playoff picture.

Keefe: I never understood the hype and attention paid to Rick Porcello as he grew up in the majors over the last five years, but now everyone is seeing why the Tigers have always been so high on him with 14 wins, a 3.10 ERA and a league-leading three shutouts. Porcello has become the front-end starter the Tigers hoped he would when they picked him in the first round in 2007.

What has been the biggest difference in the back-end starter Porcello was in his first five seasons and what he has become in 2014?

Rogacki: Porcello’s big leap actually came in 2013, but largely went unnoticed thanks to an unimpressive 13 wins and a 4.32 ERA. He posted the highest strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, resulting in a career-best 3.53 fielding independent pitching (FIP) measure. If that isn’t enough, look at what he did in the second half. From July 1st onward, Porcello was 9-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts. He held opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of those starts and logged his first complete game in a victory over the White Sox.

This season, Porcello’s strikeout rate has returned to earth, but his walk rate has also dropped. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .673 OPS, by far the best mark of his career. Opponents also have a .215 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on ground balls against Porcello, well below the league average of .250. Part of this may be to weaker contact induced by Porcello locating his pitches, and part of this may be due to the Tigers’ improved infield defense. Third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Eugenio Suarez have not been very impressive, but Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera have statistically been two of the best defenders in baseball at their respective positions.

Keefe: In 2012, Justin Verlander was virtually as good as he was in his Cy Young an MVP season in 2011. In 2013, his ERA jumped to the mid-3s and his WHIP climbed and while he still had a good year, it wasn’t what we had become used to after his previous two seasons. Now in 2014, at age 31, in the second year of a seven-year, $180 million deal, Verlander has had a lot season.

Verlander has only had one full sub-.500 season in his career (when he led the league in losses with 17 on a bad 2008 Tigers team) and that same year was the only year his ERA was above 3.66 (it was 4.84), but this year he’s on his way to having his second-worst season of his career and his worst in six years.

What has happened to Justin Verlander? Do you just chalk this up as a lost season for him or are you worried about his future and his contract?

Rogacki: There’s always some level of worry when a pitcher gets a contract as long and expensive as the one that the Tigers gave Verlander prior to the 2013 season, but I’m not very concerned about his results in 2014. Verlander had core muscle repair surgery in early January — similar to the surgery Miguel Cabrera had last October — which seems to have sapped his stamina. He has a 3.67 ERA in innings 1-3 this season, but that figure jumps to 5.33 in innings 4-6 and 8.04 in the seventh inning or later.

Verlander hinted earlier this year that he still doesn’t feel 100 percent after the surgery, something that Cabrera reiterated around the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how both stars come back in 2015, provided neither runs into any more setbacks along the way.

Keefe: Max Scherzer turned down a reported six-year, $144 million from the Tigers after his Cy Young-winning season, putting his right arm and future financial status on the line every time he throws a baseball. But this season, at 29, Scherzer has followed up his 2013 21-win season with another impressive year and with starting pitching as coveted as it’s ever been, he is likely to blow away the $144 million the Tigers offered him.

If I were Scherzer, I would have taken the guaranteed $144 million knowing that on any pitch at any time, you might never get a chance to make that kind of money again. But as long as he is able to stay healthy for another month (and possibly October if the Tigers get there), his gamble will have paid off.

Is there any chance Scherzer is a Tiger in 2015 and what do you think he will end up getting?

Rogacki: I don’t ever want to doubt what Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is capable of, but the trade for David Price seems to have all but sealed Scherzer’s fate. The Tigers seem reluctant to offer him a contract longer than six years, while Scherzer appears to be after the biggest payday possible (a safe assumption when you’re talking about a Scott Boras client). If he hits the free agent market, I would not be surprised to see Scherzer become baseball’s second $200 million pitcher, especially considering that he has pitched at an ace level since mid-May of 2012. I would love to see him back with the Tigers next season — he’s as outgoing and goofy as baseball players get — but not at the kind of money he appears to be looking for.

Keefe: As this series starts, the Yankees are 6 games back of the Orioles and 2.5 games back of the second wild card. The Tigers are 1 ½ games back of the Royals and ½ game back of the second wild card. I think I’m safe in assuming that you didn’t expect the Tigers to be going down to the wire for a playoff spot when the season started or after they landed David Price and I know that on July 31 you didn’t think they might be looking at a scenario where they have to play a one-game playoff or one in which they don’t reach the postseason at all.

What are your feelings on the state of the Tigers on Aug. 26 and after their final 33 games, where will they be?

Rogacki: The Tigers definitely aren’t where any of us expected them to be at this point in the season, especially given how good they have looked at stretches this year. That said, I think that the Royals’ recent hot streak will end in the next week or two, and the Tigers will win their fourth consecutive AL Central crown. With 27 of their final 33 games against AL Central opponents — and the other six games at Comerica Park — they have plenty of time to jump ahead of the Royals and get back into the postseason.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the help. Nicely done last night, Yanks.

Blogs • Yankees

Jul 8, 2014

Sorry, Soriano

Alfonso Soriano became the first scapegoat for the 2014 Yankees, but he gave me a lot of memories during his time with the Yankees.

I was sitting in a hotel room in New Jersey for a junior hockey tournament when one of my teammates came barging into the room yelling, “WE GOT A-ROD!” in a tone comparable to Axl Rose asking “DO YOU KNOW WHERE THE EFF YOU ARE?!”

Alex Rodriguez: a Yankee. The idea seemed surreal and knowing that he had recently been traded and then untraded to the Red Sox, I didn’t really believe it. But once it was confirmed I started thinking about where he would play and where he would hit and if the Yankees would ever lose another game, but I wasn’t thinking of the most important question: who did the Yankees give up?

***

Don Mattingly was my favorite player when I first started attending Yankees games at the age of four in 1991 and it was his player T-shirt I wore over and over and over until the NY on the front started to break apart and fade and the dark blue of the shirt started to look more like New York Rangers blue than New York Yankees blue from the washing machine. I was only nine when Mattingly played his last game in 1995, but I wasn’t without a favorite player for long because the following April on Opening Day 1996, Derek Jeter started at shortstop … and has ever since.

Jeter has been a staple of my baseball life for nearly my entire life as well as for many other 20-something-year-olds in the tri-state area. It’s Jeter’s number 2 I wanted to wear and his swing I tried to emulate and his at-bats I had to watch and his line in the box score I checked when I missed those at-bats. No one has ever come close to Mattingly and Jeter for me, but in 2001, someone became a close second to those two.

***

Last Wednesday, I sat in Section 203 at Yankee Stadium and watched the Yankees slowly and miserably lose to David Price and the Rays and for some reason I paid extra close attention to Alfonso Soriano in right field. At the time I didn’t know it would be the last time I would ever see him play for the Yankees. It’s been nearly 11 years since I first thought I would never see him play for the Yankees again sitting in that hotel room in New Jersey.

Even getting the best player in baseball and destroying everything the Red Sox had spent their entire offseason working for, I was devastated to see Soriano get traded to the Rangers. After Jeter, he had become” the guy” even if he was coming off of a 20-strikeout performance between the ALCS and World Series. But when you’re acquiring the reigning AL MVP at 28 years old and locked up for at least four more years, you’re more apt to get over a trade of that magnitude and more willing to forget how much fun it was watching Soriano play.

I have wondered too much over the last 10-plus years what things would have been like if the Red Sox had successfully traded for Alex Rodriguez and if Alfonso Soriano had stayed with the Yankees all of this time instead of going to Texas, Washington and Chicago. Would 2004 have ended differently? Would Soriano have stayed at second base? Would Robinson Cano ever have been a Yankee? Would A-Rod still be getting paid by a Major League Baseball team? Would A-Rod have become a professional wrestler or a contestant on The Apprentice or a star of Celebrity Rehab? Would we ever have found out about A-Rod’s love for high stakes poker and for strippers and prostitutes? (I think if the Yankees had a crystal ball in February 2004, they probably wouldn’t have made the trade.)

I started to think about all of this on Sunday when I found out that Soriano had been designated for assignment. At .221/.244/.367 he was nowhere near the .256/.325/.525 player he was during the second half of last season, but in a limited and platoon role, his numbers were understandable for a guy who averaged 144 games per season over his 13-year career as an everyday player. With the Yankees struggling to score runs and coming off another embarrassing one-run effort on Saturday, a game in which Soriano went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and had his third straight two-strikeout game, he became the first scapegoat for the 2014 Yankees. Someone had to pay the price for the Yankees scoring two runs or less seemingly every day and since Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran contractually couldn’t pay the price and because the .212/.289/.376-hitting Kelly Johnson, who has one home run since May 3, is apparently a distant relative of Brian Cashman, Soriano was the one who had to go.

Soriano was supposed to be the Yankees’ designated hitter this season. He was supposed to play in the outfield only to give others a day off. But because of the old, brittle signing of Carlos Beltran and having the softest player in all of baseball in Mark Teixeira, Soriano lost out on being the full-time DH and was relegated to infrequent at-bats as part of an outfield rotation with Ichiro. The Yankees put Soriano, a career everyday player, in a position to fail and when he did, they let him go.

He became the first Yankee to fall on a team whose $180 million first baseman has missed games for being tired from standing on the bases, whose $85 million catcher isn’t hitting and just keeps telling the media how horrible he is, whose $45 million right fielder can’t play right field, whose $153 million center fielder is proving his 2012 power was an anomaly and who is playing at a level less than the left fielder who only got and whose $700,000-per-start “ace” hasn’t pitched since May 10 and might never pitch again. Soriano wasn’t the problem with the 2014 Yankees, but with the Yankees only owing him about $2.5 million for the rest of the season, he was the easiest choice for Brian Cashman to show he finally means business after watching the nearly half-billion dollars he spent this offseason play .500 baseball for 86 games.

Even Jeter, who never seems fazed by any roster move, was surprised by Soriano being designated for assignment. And Jeter was right to be with the time and chances given to others who offer much less in an everyday role.

“Soriano is like family to me,” Jeter said. “I have played with him a long time, when he first came up and when he came back. Sori has had a tremendous career here in New York and it was difficult for him this year. Not playing every day, it’s hard to be productive. I feel for him and I am going to miss him but I will be in touch with him. He is like a brother to me. He should be proud of what he was able to do.”

I’ll remember Alfonso Soriano for his magical 2002 season when he led the league in hits, runs and stolen bases, when it felt like he would lead off every game with a home run. I’ll remember him for hitting .400 against the 116-win Mariners in the 2001 ALCS and the way he tried to single-handedly carry a mediocre Yankees team to the playoffs in 2013, hitting 17 home runs and 50 RBIs in 58 games. I’ll remember his high socks, his long swing and the way he stared at most likely all of his 412 home runs until they reached their destination. And I’ll always remember feeling like Mikey McDermott sitting on a full house with three stacks of high society on the line following Soriano’s solo home run against Curt Schilling in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 2001 World Series to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead before it all came crashing down a few minutes later when the Diamondbacks showed aces full like Teddy KGB.

Soriano won’t have a plaque in Monument Park and there won’t be a day for him at Yankee Stadium. Eventually his legacy will likely become the answer to the question “Who was Alex Rodriguez traded to the Yankees for?” that the YES broadcasters ask during a Yankees-Rangers game in 2029. But for me and for the generation of Yankees fans my age, he’ll always be the scrawny kid that came up wearing number 58, switched to 53 then to 33 and settled on 12, swung the biggest bat in the league, started all the handshakes and long tossed with Jeter down the first-base line before every game.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 30, 2014

David Price to Make Last Pitch to Yankees

If I get my wish, the next time David Price pitches in Yankee Stadium after this week will be as a member of the Yankees.

The Yankees desperately need to start putting wins together consistently and after winning eight of 10, they have now lost six of eight and the only thing that has been consistent about the 2014 Yankees is that they are inconsistent. I would like to think that could change this week at the Stadium against the Rays, but the Rays, despite having the worst record in the majors are 4-3 against the Yankees this season.

With the Yankees and Rays playing the final series in the Bronx before the All-Star break, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about what’s gone for the Rays this season, what will happen with David Price and if the Rays could make a managerial change after this season.

Keefe: The last time we talked was on May 2. Back then, the Rays were 13-16 and part of the mix in an AL East that no one wanted to run away with after a month of baseball. But since then, the Rays have gone 22-33 and have buried themselves in the division, 10 games out after three months of baseball.

It’s been a while since the Rays found themselves in this sort of position at this point in the season. Here are their records after 84 games since 2008 when they first made the playoffs.

2013: 45-39
2012: 44-40
2011: 47-37
2010: 51-33
2009: 45-39
2008: 52-32

There is still half a season left to play and given the Rays’ recent history of going on remarkable runs, it’s hard to truly count them out yet, especially since neither the Yankees, Blue Jays or Orioles really want to take over the East and put a firm grip on it this summer.

Have you given up on the 2014 Rays or are you holding out hope that the remaining 78 games can be something special?

Russell: Play this season all over again, and I’d still think this team could win it all.

Not much unlike the lost 2009 season, the quality of the athletes assembled by Andrew Friedman this season was the best the Rays had ever fielded. This is not a horrible team by any stretch of the imagination, and Baseball Prospectus continues to project the Rays to the best performance through the remaining half season. But that’s all on paper. Everything should have gone right, but it all went wrong.

Part of the blame is on the starting rotation’s injuries, part of the blame is on sleepy bats, part of the blame is on uncharacteristic defensive miscues.

That said, I don’t foresee the Rays coming back from a 35-49 record. It’s just been a horrible year for what I would still consider a top-tier talent in baseball. Last place hurts, and this team is dejected. They’re still a formidable team to play (just ask the Orioles), but unless we start sweeping every division series, this team is bottom dwelling the rest of the season.

Keefe: The more the Rays lose, the more David Price’s inevitable departure from Tampa Bay becomes more and more imminent. I wish the Rays would find some worthy package from the Yankees and trade the left-handed ace within the division, but I recognize that is a pipe dream and Price will end up somewhere other than the Bronx when he is finally moved. My one fear is that he will be traded to the Dodgers where they will be sure to lock him up long-term and he will never hit free agency.

What is the mood with Rays fans knowing that at this point any David Price start could be his last with the organization? Where do you think he will end up?

Russell: David Price’s departure might as well be written in stone. The Rays were over budget heading into the season, and if Price were headed out the door either way, they might as well send him off now.

I would venture to say Price hasn’t been traded thus far because the expected return has been too far above the market, and I don’t think the front office is lowering their demands. It’s for that reason an inter-division trade isn’t happening. How much would the Yankees need to outbid the Rays’ expectations for them to send their ace to a rival?

The Rays have no interest in facing Price on a regular basis for years to come if it can be helped. Even if they were willing, though, who do the Yankees have to offer? James Shields brought back Wil Myers — and while that trade was robust, in a drastically different environment, it’s still the plumb line.

The mood for fans at this point is “what’s taking so long?” more than anything else. The Rays even granted Price’s request to play in Sunday Columbia blue jerseys on his Wednesday matinee last week. If that’s not a signal he’s going out the door…

Keefe: When I looked at the pitching matchups for this series and saw Chris Archer, David Price and Jake Odorizzi, I laughed to myself and thought, “Of course it’s those three.” Archer is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees, David Price is David Price and the Yankees as a team are 5-for-24 (.208) against Odorizzi and have basically never seen him and I know all too well how the Yankees do against pitchers with which they have no history.

I think the fact that I feel most confident about the Yankees’ chance in the middle game of this series against the 2012 Cy Young winner and current AL strikeout leader shows how deep the Rays’ pitching is, even in a year when Erik Bedard is in the rotation and Matt Moore is out for the season and Alex Cobb has missed significant time.

This must make you feel confident knowing everything will be fine pitching-wise even once Price has been traded?

Russell: Absolutely. The Rays are built on pitching; they live and die by the rotation. There’s some quality names en route to the majors in Enny Romero, Nathan Karns, and a few projects like grondballer Matt Andriese, scary but injured Alex Colome, and former bluechip prospect Mike Montgomery, not to mention a rehabbing Jeremy Hellickson. Trading Price will hurt, no doubt about it, but the Rays will survive as other roll players step up to the next level.

Keefe: If the Rays are willing to trade Price and accept that 2014 isn’t going to happen for them, I would think they would be willing to move some other players in order to retool and rebuild for 2015 and beyond when the injury bug isn’t decimating the entire team. Ben Zobrist’s name has been mentioned as a potential trade piece between now and July 31, but is there anyone else that could be leaving Tampa Bay in July?

Russell: I’d say it’s open season on anyone not under contract for an extended period of time. In fact, it’s easier to point out who is not being traded. The outfield is locked up in Desmond Jennings, Wil Myers, and Kevin Kiermaier. The infield locks are likely Evan Longoria and Yunel Escobar. Ryan Hanigan will remain at catcher, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, and Chris Archer remain in the rotation. Literally everyone else I would put on the block, but given the lofty expectations of the front office, who knows who could go out the door?

Veteran role players are probably the ones worth watching. Erik Bedard, David DeJesus, James Loney, and Jose Molina’s glove are all under-discussed as trade targets. Matt Joyce, Grant Balfour, and Ben Zobrist rightfully so. It’s not a fire sale, but the Rays could be persuaded with a large enough offer.

Keefe: I have heard people bring up the idea that the Rays could move on from Joe Maddon and look for a managerial change. Not that Maddon has done a bad job (he hasn’t), but because it’s just time a for a change, which happens in baseball. I don’t agree with the idea to make a change for the sake of a change because a manager’s ways become stale within an organization, but then again, I have never played or managed in the majors, so maybe it can be needed.

If the Rays were going to make a change and let Maddon go after this season as a way of shaking things up if this disastrous season continues, then they would be doing exactly that and making a change just to make a change, discounting what Maddon has done in his tenure there. And if Maddon were let go, the over/under on when he would have another managerial job would be 17 minutes.

Is it time for the Rays to think about a new manager or is that the craziest thing you have heard this year?

Russell: I have heard a lot of crazy theories about what the Rays could do to fix the mess, but changing managers is brand new to my ears. I can’t imagine it in any scenario. The Rays know the incredible asset they have in Maddon, and he’s incredibly happy with the club. The same could be said for pitching coach Jim Hickey.

There might be a case to switch up the hitting coach some time in the next six month, but how much is he to blame for this year’s 100 wRC+, compared to last year’s 108 wRC+? Coaching changes are not so clear cut as a Bobby Valentine disaster. The Rays have no reason to dictate a change in management. It’s just crazy talk!

Blogs • Yankees

Aug 7, 2012

Postseason Pitching Fears

After Justin Verlander’s 14 strikeouts on Monday night, it’s time to start thinking about which pitchers the Yankees shouldn’t want to see in the ALDS this October.

I spend an unhealthy amount of time worrying about who the Yankees will play in the ALDS, considering the possibilities and doing hours of math involving the American League standings. But I have learned over the years that all the time I spend looking at the standings, matchups, lineups, rotations and history is meaningless and the stress caused by my obsession of picking a first-round opponent for the Yankees is unnecessary.

I can’t make the Yankees have the best record in the AL and put the Orioles and White Sox in the one-game playoff and then have the Orioles win that game so the Yankees play them. I can’t hope that the Yankees face the Orioles rather than the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, or Rays. However, no matter what I want, it usually plays out the way I want as if I’m the subject of a Matt Christopher book, and it’s not always for the best.

Last year I wanted the Yankees to play the Tigers in the ALDS, just like I did in 2006, and it backfired, just like it did in 2006.

In 2010 and 2009, I wanted the Twins and it worked out.

In 2008, I hated baseball for the summer. I like to pretend that season didn’t happen the way the 2004 playoffs didn’t happen because of the strike. Remember the strike of 2004? That sucked.

In 2007, I wanted the Indians. When Johnny Damon led off the series with a home run, I had the same “This is too easy” feeling I had when the Yankees crushed the Tigers in Game 1 the year before. Chien-Ming Wang made me regret my decision to want the Indians in Games 1 and 4 (Paul Byrd helped me regret the decision in Game 4), and when Joba Chamberlain was sprayed down with bug spray for the midges (which we later found out was the opposite way to handle the midges and was basically the equivalent of jumping into a pool of sharks while holding steaks and having open wounds on your body) while Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez kept pitching like nothing was going on (I think I actually saw him eating some of the midges), I knew the Yankees were effed.

We talked about 2006, so in 2005 I stupidly wanted the Yankees to win the division and they did on the final weekend of the season thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. But because of this, they had to face the Angels in the ALDS instead of the White Sox. Now the White Sox did win 99 games, but I think if the Yankees had faced the White Sox, I don’t think they would have lost to Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia (and an epic relief appearance from El Duque) the way the Red Sox did and I don’t think Ozzie Guillen is still a manager in the league because he wouldn’t have that World Series on his resume, which has to be the only thing keeping him employed. Then again, maybe the Yankees beat the White Sox, but the Red Sox beat the Angels and then beat the Yankees in the ALCS for the second year in a row and I’m off the grid for now almost seven years with no human interaction, or maybe I’m living in Iceland and doing whatever people do in Iceland, which I would think doesn’t involve watching or following baseball.

In 2003 and 2004 I also wanted the Twins and I got them. In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees haven’t advanced to ALCS against a team not named the Minnesota Twins since 2001 when they came back from down 0-2 against the A’s in the ALDS. (I just checked and the Twins are 12 back in the Central and 10-1/2 games back in the wild card. This isn’t good for the Yankees’ chances of getting to the ALCS.)

Like I said, the amount of time I have spent over the years trying to figure the best possible ALDS matchup for the Yankees has been a complete waste of time. If I had put this much time into actual schoolwork over the years, who knows where I would be right now? Maybe I would be teaching advanced physics at Yale or working as an orthopedic surgeon and living in Greenwich? Instead I’m looking at Ivan Nova’s 2012 game log and wondering how the guy who went 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in June has gone 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts since July 3, filling A.J. Burnett’s 2010-11 role nicely.

On Monday night, Nova was bad again (5.1 IP, 11 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR) and the Yankees lost to the second-best pitcher on the planet (you’re welcome, King Felix). Justin Verlander turned in an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance to beat the Yankees for the first time in three starts this season. His effort combined with home runs from Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera confirmed that I won’t be pulling to see the Tigers in the ALDS this year.

But if not the Tigers, then who? It’s too hard to say. The second wild card has turned the league into a five-alarm gongshow and there are currently seven teams within five games of a one-game playoff. When you factor in the three division leaders that leaves just four teams (Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City) whose seasons are actually over. The Yankees could potentially play the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, A’s, Orioles, Red Sox or Blue Jays in the ALDS. That means I really have nothing to pull for, wish for or root for. The second wild card has taken the Yankees’ first-round opponent out of my hands even if it’s always been out of my hands.

So since I can’t hope for a team, Verlander’s start on Monday night made me think about which pitchers I don’t want to see in the five-game series. And because Felix Hernandez’s career is being wasted on the Mariners, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are in the NL and Colby Lewis is out for the year, I narrowed it down to four starters that I don’t want to see in the ALDS this fall.

(List Spoiler Alert: James Shields and Jered Weaver are NOT on this list. If I need the Yankees to win an elimination game against “Big Game” James who has the most misleading nickname since my friend we call “Big Kinsel,” who is a 5-foot-10, 155-pound Asian, or Jered Weaver, who is a blood relative of Jeff Weaver, I’m more than confident. If the Yankees have to face either of those two pitchers in a must-win game, I’m “Coach Taylor trailing 26-0 at halftime of State” confident in knowing that the Yankees are going to be fine.)

4. Ryan Dempster
I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. OK, let’s be serious…

4. Doug Fister
This isn’t as much about Doug Fister as it is what he represents. Fister is the non-elite starter who possesses the recipe for disaster for the Yankees. He knows how to pitch; he isn’t going to ruin a game unless someone like Al Alburquerque (yes, he’s real, Mike Francesa!) gets called upon to ruin it for him; he isn’t going to maybe have it or maybe not like A.J. Burnett or Max Scherzer; he’s going to keep the Yankees off balance, throw strikes and not hand out free passes. Doug Fister represents Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Paul Byrd, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman and all the other starters that have beat the Yankees in the playoffs in recent years that you weren’t worried about losing to before the first pitch.

Find me a Yankees fan that thought the Yankees would lose Game 5 of the 2011 ALDS. When your back’s against the wall in an elimination game on the road with A.J. Burnett on the mound and you escape a bases-loaded jam in the first inning and go on to win to send the series back to the Stadium, you know you’re going to win. I knew the Yankees were going to win.

They didn’t win.

Yes, Fister lost the weird Game 1 at the Stadium last year and got charged with six earned runs, but four of them came on the grand slam that Alburquerque gave up to Robinson Cano. He bounced back in Game 5 of the series at the Stadium in a game no one thought the Yankees could lose. He was forced to throw 92 pitches in five innings, but only allowed one earned run on a two-out solo home run to Cano with the Tigers up 3-0 in the fifth.

Doug Fister reminds me of Cliff Lee. He works deep into games, doesn’t throw hard, has great location, doesn’t walk a lot of people and started to make a run at being an elite starter in his late 20s. When I hear “Doug Fister,” I think “Cliff Lee.” When I see Doug Fister, I think right-handed Cliff Lee. When it’s the playoffs, the last person I ever want to see is Cliff Lee, and that means I don’t want to see Doug Fister. He’s already gone into the Bronx and won when no one thought he could. When you survive an elimination setting in the Stadium, you earn the element of fear from me.

3. Chris Sale
Chris Sale is 23 years old. He has made 19 starts in the majors. He has never thrown a pitch in October. Those three things might make you wonder why he is on this list. These next two things won’t.

Chris Sale throws with his left arm. He has never started a game against the Yankees.

The real No. 1 pitcher on this list should be Any Lefty Pitching Against The Yankees For the First Time or Any Starter Making His MLB Debut, but since that’s not a real person, I couldn’t give the No. 1 spot to a general group of pitchers. Chris Sale is very close to being part of the group.

Sale has actually pitched against the Yankees before, but has never started a game. He has made three relief appearances, pitching 3-1/3 scoreless innings and allowing one hit with two walks and five strikeouts. This year Sale is 13-3 with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and 12 of his 20 starts have been six innings or more with two earned runs or less.

Chris Sale means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s Chris Sale.

2. David Price
David Price means Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are less dangerous, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher get turned around, Ichiro is less effective and the short porch at the Stadium isn’t the same.

I don’t want to see an elite lefty or someone who doesn’t walk people against the Yankees. That’s David Price.

Sorry, I didn’t want to plagiarize myself, but I had to.

Price has made three postseason starts and lost them all. However, those three postseason starts came against the 2010 and 2011 Rangers. His line from those three starts: 19.1 IP, 24 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 1 BB, 17 K. Again, we’re talking about the best offense in baseball in the Rangers, and not the most sporadic offense in baseball (especially in October) in the Yankees.

The Rangers would probably welcome David Price in Game 1 of the playoffs, but a power lefty against the Yankees’ lineup? I’ll pass.

1. Justin Verlander
You would think that after an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance from the reigning MVP and Cy Young, I would want no part of seeing Verlander for a third time in the playoffs in the ALDS, and you’re right, I don’t. But if it happened I wouldn’t be that worried either. Verlander doesn’t put the fear of God in me the way that Felix or Cliff Lee do, but he’s right there.

In all honesty, I’m not as scared of Justin Verlander as I probably should be. The Yankees have beat him in in two of his three starts against them this season and they rallied to come back against him in Game 3 last year. In 2006, they would have won Game 2 against him if Mike Mussina didn’t cough up the game the way only Mike Mussina could.

I said I wasn’t going to waste anymore time trying to solve the Yankees’ potential ALDS opponent puzzle or trying to worry about pitching matchups and I meant it. The only thing I really need to worry about is whether the middle of the order will hit with runners in scoring position, and that’s not something I can change or something I should spend my summer worrying about. I have October for that.

Tag: David Price

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