Keefe To The City

May 3, 2013

Kentucky Derby Predictions

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday and the Rangers lost Game 1 of the quarterfinals, so it’s the perfect time for an email exchange with Brian Monzo.

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday and the Rangers lost Game 1 of the quarterfinals to the Capitals 3-1. Those two things make a perfect storm for an email exchange with WFAN producer Brian Monzo as we head into a wild weekend in sports. So I bothered Monzo for his thoughts on who he likes in this year’s Derby and what happened on Thursday night in Washington.

Keefe: I have been waiting for you to pay the invoice I sent you on the money you owe me for telling me to pick Alpha in the 2012 Kentucky Derby without even a mention of I’ll Have Another, but since that money will never arrive, I have decided to bother you about this year’s Derby instead. But just so you know, my little sister told me to pick I’ll Have Another. My little sister. And here you are, the expert who loves TVG more than hockey missing out on a 15-to-1 horse.

You have been feeding me Derby information for a few days now, but when it comes down to it in a race this unpredictable, it’s all about the name. Right now I can tell you Itsmyluckyday (10-to-1 on Sportsbook) and Will Take Charge (25-to-1 on Sportsbook) are two names that stand out to me.

I know you’re all about Revolutionary (5-to-1 on Sportsbook) because you have been telling me so all week, so tell me why Revolutionary isn’t going to be this year’s Alpha.

Monzo: You bring up some great points. Regarding Alpha, it should be noted that he went out to win the Jim Dandy and the Travers at Saratoga last summer, but yes, he didn’t run well in the Kentucky Derby. Yes, you did approach me before the race and asked about I’ll Have Another. Good job by your little sister.

Anyway, this is a really tough race to handicap. This class of horses is good, not great and trying to find the best of “good” horses is pretty tough. When I look at this race, with these horses, the way I handicap the race is by places the horses where they will go in the race and envision how the race will go.

When all is said and done, I’ve decided to go with Revolutionary as my top pick, with many horses very close.

Revolutionary is trained by Todd Pletcher and is coming off an impressive win in the Louisiana Derby. What I liked about that race was that he came off the pace and fought off a late challenge from Mylute, another horse he’ll face in the Derby. That race showed me that this horse doesn’t back down from challenges and isn’t afraid of other horses. He looked like he was going to get beat and he beared down and held for the win. Some horses will buckle and let another horse take it. He didn’t.

He drew the third post for the Derby, which isn’t great, but not awful. It should allow him to get to a position in the race he’s comfortable with. If he runs to the lead, throw your ticket out. If he stays within five to six lengths of the lead, no matter how quick or slow the pace is, he should find himself in a position to run down the leaders down the stretch. My guess is he goes off at 9-1. (He’s currently 5-to-1 on Sportsbook.)

I also love the fact that he has Calvin Borel on him. Like Borel or not, he’s a big race rider and his history in the Kentucky Derby is solid. His win with Street Sense was one of the best rides in Kentucky Derby history.

Orb is another horse I expect to run well. He closed well in the Florida Derby and will likely be the post time favorite on Saturday. Verrazano, another Pletcher horse, will be going to the lead and even though he’s undefeated, this is a tough race to hold with speed.

Since the two horses you mentioned were Itsmyluckyday and Will Take Charge, I’ll give you my thoughts on them.

I didn’t love how Itsmyluckyday ran in the Florida Derby. It was a slow race and Orb blew right by him.

Will Take Charge has been on my radar since February. His wins in the Smarty Jones and the Rebel really caught my eye. He doesn’t have a ton of speed, but if he can stay four lengths from the lead, I can see him tracking down the leaders in the final 100 yards. He is 3-for-7. He likes to win and I think he’ll go off at 30-1. I’m not making him my top choice, but I will play a small amount on him to win and will have him on many trifecta tickets.

Keefe: You mentioned Orb and how well he did at the Florida Derby and Verrazano and how he’s undefeated. Orb along with Verrazano are currently the two favorites on Sportsbook.

Last year everyone was all over Bodemeister and it was pretty much a given that he would win and it looked like he would before I’ll Have Another came out of nowhere to take the Derby. And last year it was Bodemeister and Union Rags getting all the attention before the Derby and now it seems like Orb and Verrazano should be garnering the same attention with the Derby so close on the calendar.

Why aren’t these two horses getting as much attention despite being the favorites? Why is the class of horses only “good” and not “great?” And what’s the difference between this year’s Derby and last year?

Monzo: That’s the thing though and the beauty of the Derby. A horse at 9-to-2 or 5-to-1 could be the favorite. There are now 19 horses in the race with Black Onyx scratching out on Friday morning. I’d say 14 of the 19 have a shot to win. It’s mostly about having the best trip and not being the best horse to win. Last year Bodemeister was the best horse to run, as was Went The Day Well. I’ll Have Another had a perfect trip and was able to catch Bodemeister late.

Orb is a good horse and has won 4-of 7, but I worry that his last race was too slow. He has a good closing kick and should be there when the dust settles, but I will put on my exotics tickets, not as a winner.

Verrazano is a speed horse who has run really well. He is undefeated, going 4-for-4, but running a 1 1/4 miles is a tough thing to do, especially running to the lead. Bodemeister ran as good as anyone on the lead, but couldn’t hold it. I don’t think Verrazano will win, but has a good shot of holding onto a top four spot, which is why I’m leaving him on my superfecta tickets.

There isn’t one horse that is that much better then the rest of the field. Also, not of these horses has run an epic eye opening race. Some very good races (Revolutionary in the Withers, Orb in the Florida Derby, Verrazano in the Wood), but none were extraordinary.

I’m not sure there’s much of a difference from last year. One thing that’s different if Bob Baffert, who trained Bodemeister and is a legendary trainer has no horses in the race. Todd Pletcher has five horses in the race, which is pretty crazy.

Will Take Charge is my value horse. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas with veteran jockey Jon Court on the mount, Will Take Charge has the winning instinct to pull off an upset here. He won the Rebel in March and Smarty Jones in January, as well as his maiden race in October at Keeneland. To me, the win in the Rebel showed this horse’s ability to have enough left in the tank late to chase down leaders. I don’t think he has the talent to come back from 16 lengths to win, but if he can stay four to five lengths wide throughout the race and can find a way to be two lengths off with 200 yards to go, he’ll have a fighting chance. He should carry a huge price tag too, maybe close to 30-to-1, which is a huge value play.

Revolutionary is my top pick, however. I just think the race will open up for him late. Book it.

Keefe: OK, I’m booking it. Let’s hope this goes better than it did a year ago. Now let’s talk about what happened on Thursday night in Washington.

Some people stupidly want to blame Henrik Lundqvist for the Rangers’ Game 1 loss, which to me is as ridiculous as it has been to blame any loss on him during his tenure with the Rangers. I blame the Rangers’ inability to score and their lack of discipline.

The Rangers entered the series with two goals: 1. Contain Alexander Ovechkin and 2. Limit the Capitals power-play opportunities. In Game 1, Ovechkin tied the game at 1 and the Rangers took six penalties against the Capitals, including a too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty just 34 seconds into the game. So much for accomplishing those two goals. And on top of those problems, I’m not sure what Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi were doing on the Capitals’ second goal when they let a full-ice pass split them for a Marcus Johansson breakaway goal.

I picked the Rangers in 5 and that pick is as good as done because after what we saw in Game 1 this Capitals team is much different than the team the Rangers narrowly beat in seven games a year ago and it’s barely the same Capitals team we saw last against the Rangers on March 24. The Rangers aren’t going to win four games in a row, so I’m OK with my pick being wrong. Let’s just hope they can win four games at all.

Monzo: Blaming Lundqvist is stupid. Like I said on Twitter, if he was the Penguins goalie they would go 82-0 and sweep every playoff series. He gets little goal support in the playoffs.

I took the Rangers in 5 as well and I’m content with that not happening now. I actually took some good things from the game. Carl Hagelin looked good and Chris Kreider looked good and Steve Eminger actually played physical.

I also think Ryane Clowe was missed because of the space he creates in the offensive zone. I think even the great Brian Boyle could be an asset here with his big body. And I noticed the Rangers often pass way too much, but when they shoot, they miss the net. (Brad Richards!) The Rangers need to fire more shots on Braden Holtby. He gives up a ton of rebounds and if they crash the net, they should be able to bang a few pucks in.

They need to improve on hitting the net and crashing the net. They also need to stay disciplined and not take penalties. They PK is good enough to hold off the Caps, but they can’t be giving the Caps six power players a game.

Rangers in 6.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Rangers

May 2, 2013

Rangers-Capitals Now a Playoff Tradition

It’s the fourth Rangers-Capitals playoff series in five years and that calls for an email exchange with Kevin Klein of Japers’ Rink.

It’s the third day of the NHL playoffs and the Rangers have yet to play a game. At this point it feels like the fourth Rangers-Capitals series in five years might never start, but then again maybe it’s a good thing that they waited until Thursday since there won’t be two days off between games at any point in the series.

Kevin Klein of Japers’ Rink joined me for an email exchange to talk about the Rangers-Capitals series and how Adam Oates brought the Capitals back to prominence and how the new head coach was able to get Alex Ovechkin back into the conversation of “Best Player in the World.” We also give our predictions for the series.

Keefe: Four years ago, I was petrified of the idea of a Rangers-Capitals series, and my worrying was proved right when the Rangers blew a 3-1 series lead.

Two years ago, I didn’t expect anything good to come from a Rangers-Capitals series with a Rangers team that couldn’t score and found their way into the playoffs on the last day of the season thanks to some outside help. Again, the Capitals had their way with the Rangers in five games and embarrassed the MSG crowd by erasing a three-goal, third-period deficit while silencing the Bruce Boudreau chants.

Last year, I wanted no part of the Capitals in the first round and no part of them in the playoffs at all. It wasn’t the same Capitals team from 2008-09, but even with a new look and style of play they forced the No. 1-seeded Rangers to a seventh game and if it weren’t for some late-game heroics from the Rangers in the series they would have eliminated the Rangers once again.

This year I feel lucky the Rangers are playing the Capitals. I’m not sure if it’s because the other two options would have been the Penguins and Canadiens, who have both dominated the Rangers in recent years, or if it’s because the Rangers were finally able to eliminate the Capitals last year. Then again, it’s never good to get a good feeling about the Rangers, especially when it comes to the postseason and who their first-round opponent might be. So before we pick this series apart piece by piece prior to Game 1, maybe you can help bring me back to reality and why I shouldn’t feel so confident about the Rangers getting the Capitals in the quarterfinals and feeling like everything magically fell into place for the Rangers over the weekend.

Klein: It’s funny you should feel lucky to face this year’s Capitals, when you feared last year’s.

This year’s Capitals boast the most lethal power play in the NHL (by more than two full percentage points) and Alex Ovechkin is back to his old self, racking up 32 goals in 48 games. Two years ago, when the Capitals ousted the Rangers in the first round, Ovechkin had 32 goals in 79 games. It’s certainly worth noting that Ovechkin’s resurgence would not have been possible without his running mate, Nicklas Backstrom, who returned to form in time with Ovi, to the tune of 40 assists in 48 games (good enough for third in the league and only three helpers off the league lead). I’ll also add that Troy Brouwer and Mike Ribeiro are having career years on the second line, so once Ovi and Backstrom hop back onto the bench, the Rangers still have their work cut out for them.

Dropping back to the blue line, last season the Rangers had the luxury of facing off against Roman Hamrlik and Jeff Schultz, two defensemen who – as you well know by now in the case of Hamrlik – aren’t exactly known for their mobility these days. It’s my presumption that Schultz and Hamrlik will be watching the games together from the Verizon Center and Madison Square Garden press boxes, a fact that most singularly improves this Capitals team over last year’s squad.

But the Capitals’ improvements never would have occurred if not for the mind of the man behind the bench. Indeed, it was Adam Oates who redesigned the power play, taking it from the middle of the pack to the pinnacle of the league. Indeed, it was Adam Oates who envisioned Ovechkin on the right wing, where he has since re-established himself as the league’s premier goal scorer. And indeed, it was Adam Oates who was standing behind the New Jersey bench last year when the Devils ushered the top-seeded Rangers unceremoniously into the offseason.

These are the reasons why you should perhaps not feel so confident. This isn’t to say that I feel confident about the Capitals’ chances against a Rangers team that played very well down the stretch, but rather to illuminate that this Capitals team should be a more fearsome opponent than last season’s.

Keefe: OK, well I just went from overly confident to terrified. Thanks?

When it comes to Roman Hamrlik, I can understand what you mean since I’m not sure how the Rangers thought the Capitals’ trash would become their reward when it comes to a 39-year-old defenseman with as many miles (1,395 regular-season games and 111 playoff games) as Hamrlik has. The man played in his first NHL game in 1992! 1992! Sure, Jaromir Jagr is still playing and he played in his first game in 1990, but he’s Jaromir Jagr and he’s playing an elite level for a 41-year-old (35 points in 45 regular-season games).

You’re right, I should be worried about Ovechkin wanting to once again be in the “Best Player in the World” conversation again and the way he has responded to Adam Oates’ coaching. With Bruce Boudreau it seemed like Ovechkin was allowed to do whatever he wanted (and rightfully so I would say), but it got to the point where Boudreau’s style became stale, not only with Ovechkin, but the entire team. With Dale Hunter, the way Ovechkin had played his entire life was changed and it took away from what makes him who he is and why he’s great. But with Oates it seems like Ovechkin finally has a coach with the right balance. And Oates’ success behind the Capitals’ bench is intriguing especially since it seems so easy for fans to respect and appreciate someone like him. Here in New York it’s not as easy to respect and appreciate John Tortorella.

How refreshing has it been to have Oates as the head coach of the Capitals?

Klein: I think that just about everyone inside of, around and in the peripherals of the Washington Capitals organization has come to the realization that Adam Oates is the best thing that’s happened to this franchise in quite awhile. Not to beat a dead horse here, but it absolutely starts with Alex Ovechkin.

In hindsight, Alex probably had a decent relationship with Bruce Boudreau that slowly degraded as the team began to struggle. We know that he didn’t have the best of relationships with Dale Hunter, and that’s because Hunter stymied Ovechkin in his insistence that Ovechkin take on the same roles and responsibilities of, say, a guy like Hunter did during his playing days.

When Oates came aboard, he embraced the idea of Ovechkin as the chassis for the Capitals vehicle. From the get-go he saw the potential for success under such a model, so long as Ovechkin was open to some considerable tweaks in his game. Oates immediately established a communicative, two-way relationship with his captain and Ovechkin has responded brilliantly. Now Oates has a happy captain, a happy locker room and inside that locker room there is a sense of trust and harmony that has been absent for a couple of years now.

It was by no means a caustic environment before, but it certainly was not as cohesive as it is now, and I attribute that coming together to Adam Oates.

Keefe: Well you’re lucky. Here we have a coach who feels entitled because of what he did in Tampa Bay nine years ago and doesn’t care that in four years here he has made it out of the first round once, made it to the playoffs twice and missed them completely the other time … despite having the best goalie in the world in his prime. No big deal.

Last season, and even the season before, Ovechkin wasn’t the same Ovechkin we had grown accustomed to. It seemed like years since a real debate could be had between who was between Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby and his postseason play wasn’t the same either. Now he’s back to pre-2010-11 Ovechkin and alone could be enough to eliminate the Rangers with the way they go into scoring slumps for extended periods of time and take untimely and undisciplined penalties.

Earlier in the season there was speculation that maybe Ovechkin needed a change of scenery and a new team, which had me wondering if the Rangers would be able to figure out a way to pay Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik and possibly Ovechkin if they had anything left to trade for him. Now with the regular season he just had and the success he experienced under Oates that dream of mine, sadly, will never come to fruition. But maybe it’s for the better since I’m a Crosby guy anyway.

When things were going poorly in Washington, did you ever think that Ovechkin might not possibly find his old scoring ability again and d did you ever think that maybe a change of scenery was needed for him?

Klein: Well, I hate to tell you, but your dream of a Nash-Gaborik-Ovechkin tandem would have been foiled by Brad Richards’ nauseating contract. As for Ovechkin needing a change of scenery, I don’t buy it. Any of that talk was more than likely born of a bored, starved, media market or sensationalist hockey pundits.

Did I ever worry that Ovechkin wouldn’t return to form? Sure, but I’ve been preaching for some time that Ovechkin’s decline in production was a result of the changeover and resultant inconsistency in on-ice philosophy from the end of the Boudreau era to the start of the Oates era. I thought that last year, despite the sour aroma that came with discussions of his play, Ovechkin demonstrated tremendous capability in scoring 38 goals while playing most of the season under the not exactly offensively-minded Dale Hunter.

Besides, the guy has the “C” on his jersey and has only worn it for a few years now. If an organization slaps that letter on a jersey then ships the player away, it probably speaks more to the organization than it does to the individual.

Keefe: So you’re saying the Flyers aren’t exactly run by the most intelligent people for trading their captain, Mike Richards, and then watching him win the Cup that same season with the Kings? Hey, if you’re anti-Philadelphia, you’re talking to the right person.

This Rangers-Capitals series is being regarded as the best first-round series in the playoffs and I think rightfully so. You saw what the Penguins did to the Islanders and what the Bruins did to the Maple Leafs on Wednesday night, and outside of Canada, the Canadiens-Senators series just isn’t that intriguing.

My confidence prior to the start of this email exchange has cooled off with thoughts of Ovechkin becoming Ovechkin again, the feared Washington power play and the idea that Oates, a rookie head coach, could outcoach Tortorella in the series.

The Capitals have the scoring depth and secondary scoring depth with three point-per-game guys leading the way, but to me, the Rangers are the all-around deeper team (not necessarily when it comes to putting the puck in the net) and with Henrik Lundqvist as the backbone I believe they are the better team. However, I live in New York, so of course I’m going to believe this.

The Rangers enter the series after a 10-3-1 April and the Capitals come in even better after an 11-1-1 April. Outside of Pittsburgh, who no one might stop, we have the league’s two hottest teams meeting in the postseason for the fourth time in five years. I’d like to think this Rangers team is better than the team that won the series in seven games a year ago and much better than the teams that lost in five games and blew a 3-1 series lead three and four years ago. But the Rangers are a lot like the New York Football Giants in that the second you start to feel confident about them they let you down in the most devastating way possible.

I’m going with the Rangers in five games, which I’m sure will get a sarcastic laugh out of you, and really given the information I have, might be a ridiculous pick. But eff it! Rangers in five.

Klein: Picking the Rangers in five is certainly … optimistic. I don’t doubt that the Rangers have a very solid lineup from top to bottom, especially through the forward ranks (but if you’re not going to measure depth by production, I’m not certain what the best way is), but I think the injury to Marc Staal leaves them exploitable outside the top pairing of Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonough.

I personally have the Caps in six, but in order for that to come true they’re going to need to be the more disciplined team on the ice. This season was the first time in 16 years that the Capitals drew more penalties than they took and that’s only because Boston went to the box three times in the third period of the final game of the schedule. I should also point out that as great as Henrik Lundqvist is, as has been for a long time, Braden Holtby’s early measurables in career save percentage and goals against average are eerily similar.

If both goalies show up in the same way they did last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to be chewing my nails down to nubs during another Game 7.

Blogs • Yankees

Apr 26, 2013

‘I’ll Be Back Soon’

Derek Jeter held a press conference to talk about his ankle and his return to the Yankees and it lasted 18 minutes and 20 seconds.

Here’s what we knew about Derek Jeter 24 hours ago.

1. He hasn’t played since breaking his ankle in Game 1 of the ALCS.

2. His plan was to be ready for Opening Day.

3. He suffered another fracture in his ankle during spring training and didn’t return in time for Opening Day.

4. He’s wearing a walking boot and can’t do anything until the bone heals from the spring training fracture.

Here’s what we now know after Derek Jeter answered questions from the media for 18 minutes and 20 seconds on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.

1. He hasn’t played since breaking his ankle in Game 1 of the ALCS.

2. His plan was to be ready for Opening Day.

3. He suffered another fracture in his ankle during spring training and didn’t return in time for Opening Day.

4. He’s wearing a walking boot and can’t do anything until the bone heals from the spring training fracture.

Jeter spoke to the media for 18 minutes and 20 seconds, barely missing out on tying Pink Floyd’s “Echoes” in length, and it was all for nothing. Nothing. NOTH-ING! NOTHINGGGGGG!

That’s right, the media packed the Yankee Stadium press conference room to hear the Yankees captain speak about his ankle for a little more than an NHL intermission and received no real information. It didn’t take me long to think about what I would title this column. I just went with the most important words that Jeter said on Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium: “I’ll be back soon.” And really they should have been the only words. Why? Because we all know Jeter has a broken bone in his ankle and we all know he isn’t playing baseball right now for the Yankees and we all know that until the bone heals he can’t play baseball for the Yankees.

Thursday started with media members speculating and fans worrying that the number “2” was headed for behind the wall in center field. But I find it hard to believe that anyone could have actually believed the idea that Jeter was going to hold a retirement press conference on Thursday afternoon. Though part of me has a feeling that Joel Sherman had a series of outrageous tweets regarding Jeter’s retirement in the hopper and I’m sure Ken Rosenthal has his 350-word column on the end of Jeter saved as a draft in WordPress. I would bet on Jeff Passan fighting back some tears as he opened a fresh Microsoft Word document to try and poetically capture the end of the all-time Yankees hits leader’s career and I’m sure someone at Baseball Prospectus was ready to tell us about a stat that proves that Eduardo Nunez is a better baseball player than Derek Jeter. (And it wouldn’t surprise me if Richard Justice was somewhere writing a story about carpentry work Bobby Valentine did in the offseason.)

I understand why Jeter “had” to meet with the media on Thursday because beat writers and reporters need to speak with players to obtain quotes to fill their word counts to fill the pages of their paper that no one’s buying. But can they at least ask questions worthy of an answer? Nothing was going to come out of Jeter’s media session the way that nothing has ever come out of a Jeter media session yet several people took exception to the way Jeter gave his responses and the way he seemingly “talked down” to the media. If you’re the captain of the Yankees and the face of the franchise and you can’t physically do your job as either and you’re asked, “You seem to be in pretty good spirits, was there a period when you were a little down after you first found out?” wouldn’t your answer have some attitude in it? But Jeter and the Yankees still held a media session because that’s what “you’re supposed to do” even if the only thing that can be done is to wait until the broken bone in Jeter’s ankle is healed.

Jeter talked about “being happy Nunez is getting an opportunity to play,” which makes him the only person happy about this. He talked about not having the MLB package at his home in Tampa and not being able to watch every Yankees game, which shocked some media members, who couldn’t believe a superstar athlete and celebrity who has made over $250 million playing baseball doesn’t have other things to do with his time in his mansion on the water. And he talked about wanting to receive a CT scan every day and not understanding why he can’t get one every day unless it has to do with finances. But mostly he answered ridiculous questions that deserved ridiculous answers about his ankle. Luckily for you, I transcribed the questions that were asked over the longest, most unnecessary press conference ever held.

How difficult has this whole process been for you?

We had heard you’d be in a boot, you’re not in a boot anymore?

Is there any doubt in your mind that you’re going to be able to come back this season and come back as the same player before?

Do you have any idea of a timeline of what the rehab process is going to be like for you?

Do you know when this happened in spring training and is it a whole new fracture or is it the same fracture?

Do you regret setting the timeline for Opening Day?

Do you think this problem was caused because of impatience and has that informed you in any way of how you have to treat this second one going forward?

Do you think because there isn’t a finite date that you were looking at with opening day that this will take a little bit longer?

We’ve heard sometime after the All-Star break. Does that mesh with the date in your head?

What’s this process (the season) been like to watch from afar?

Did the doctor express to you at all that that area is weakened by what you have been through already?

How difficult do you think it’s going to be to get the timing back once you’re back?

How much does Mariano’s comeback play into you psychologically?

Was there any point where you thought you wouldn’t be able to come back?

Do you have any doubt that when you’re back you will be able to play at the same level?

Any feedback from your teammates? What do you want to say to your fans?

What do you think of the job Nunez’s done so far and impressions of the team and what you’ve been able to see?

Will you be fully able to be as mobile as you were previously?

In short-term goals, what’s the most important thing in the next few things?

Do you have another CT scan lined up or is it not for a while?

You seem to be in pretty good spirits, was there a period when you were a little down after you first found out?

Has any of this made you think about your baseball mortality?

Would you treat injuries differently now going through what you’ve been through?

The unnecessary line of questioning could have been asked in the one question everyone needed answered:

When will you be back?

And that one question would have given everyone the one and only answer anyone cares about:

“I’ll be back soon.”

Blogs • Yankees

Apr 2, 2013

Opening Day Debacle

The Yankees were embarrassed at home on Opening Day with a makeshift lineup and CC Sabathia on the mound.

Opening Day never really feels like Opening Day. Monday didn’t feel like it would be the first day of baseball nearly every day for the next six months (and hopefully for a seventh month). Even as I rode a packed 4 train to 161st Street, bouncing around between strangers like Cheri Oteri in a Roxbury Brothers skit on Saturday Night Live, it didn’t feel like I was going to a real game. And it especially didn’t feel like I was going to a real game because this is what I woke up to on Monday morning.

Gardner 8
Nunez 6
Cano 4
Youkilis 3
Wells 7
Francisco 0
Suzuki 9
Nix 5
Cervelli 2

Given the names, that’s about the worst Opening Day lineup you could imagine as a Yankee fan, but it was even worse when you realize the way Joe Girardi decided to organize those names.

It’s hard to argue with Vernon Wells hitting fifth in the lineup since there weren’t many options even if Wells hasn’t hit like a No. 5 hitter in three years. And it’s hard to argue against Ben Francisco being in the lineup since there were no other right-handed bats available on the bench and Girardi would give up eating before he would he would give in to inserting a left-handed bat against a left-handed pitcher if he didn’t have to. But Ichiro hitting seventh on Opening Day against a left-handed pitcher in the worst regular-season Yankees lineup in two decades is the most Joe Girardi thing Joe Girardi could have done. Girardi’s need to go lefty-righty down the entire order is appalling, disgusting and disturbing and his overmanaging in Game 1 of 2013 was just as bad as his overmanaging in Game 1 of 2012 when he had Sabathia intentionally walk Sean Rodriguez. (He had Sabathia intentionally walk Jonny Gomes on Monday, so at least he’s consistent). The idea that Eduardo Nunez should be hitting second in this lineup or any lineup ever is more unfathomable to me than New York City just now extending subway service on the East Side. And the only thing Girardi’s creation was missing was Steve Pearce hitting cleanup.

I will commend Girardi for finally hitting Robinson Cano third after all these years. All it took was A-Rod suffering a possible career-ending injury and needing surgery and Mark Teixeira enduring a “strained” wrist for Girardi to put Cano into the 3-hole in the lineup since he hasn’t been the best player on the team for three-plus years now or anything.

The lineup really didn’t matter on Opening Day because when your starter puts 12 men on base in five innings, and gives up four runs, it’s hard to win, even if the opponent is last year’s last-place team. If CC Sabathia is going to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg while being backed by a lineup that features the Ghost of Vernon Wells and the recycled Ben Francisco in power spots then the Yankees are going to have even more problems than wondering about the health of Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, A-Rod and Teixeira.

Here’s what CC Sabathia has now done in five Opening Days with the Yankees.

April 6, 2009 @ BAL: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 0 K

April 4, 2010 @ BOS: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

March 31, 2011 vs. DET: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

April 6, 2012 @ TB: 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

April 1, 2013 vs. BOS: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 R, 4 BB, 5 K

I want the “CC Sabathia isn’t good on Opening Day or in March and April” narrative to stop. (He’s 20-15 with a 4.18 ERA in March and April.) Sabathia gets paid the same amount in March and April that he does in May, June, July, August and September. That means that over 34 starts per year, the amount is $676,470.59 and Sabathia’s problems shouldn’t be written off the same way Mark Teixeira’s problems are (when he’s playing) in the same months. Yesterday while I was battling the elements of April weather in New York in the right field bleachers, battling the sore sight that is the 2013 New York Yankees lineup and battling the $11 Coors Light prices, CC Sabathia was making almost $700,000 and then having excuses made for him by beat writers because he’s a “slow starter” as the Yankees lost for the first time at home on Opening Day since 1982.

Sabathia fell apart in the second inning after he walked the fearsome Jarrod Saltalamacchia, gave up a single to the vaunted Jonny Gomes, walked Hall-of-Fame bound Jackie Bradley Jr., despite getting ahead of him 0-2, and then gave up an RBI single to the heavy-hitting Jose Iglesias. It was the 6-7-8-9 hitters that started the second-inning downfall for Sabathia and it was Shane Victorino and Dustin Pedroia who did the damage as Sabathia was forced to throw 34 pitches to nine hitters in the inning.

Sabathia is the most important Yankee in 2013 just like he has been every year since 2009. It’s his job to carry the rotation and for now carry the team every fifth day until the lineup resembles something that’s not only worthy of wearing pinstripes, but of being in Major League Baseball. On Monday, he failed to his job and was outpitched by a starter and hit around by a lineup that’s failed their team for the last two years. Sabathia lost in his typical Opening Day fashion to a team coming off a 93-loss season and sent Yankee fans into the first off day of the season counting down the minutes until Hiroki Kuroda’s first pitch on Wednesday.

Yankee Stadium looked empty on TV in the ninth inning of Opening Day as I watched from Billy’s Sports Bar on River Ave. to the point that I thought the game had ended and an entire inning had been played in my two-minute walk from the bleachers to the bar. And on Tuesday, everyone wanted to talk about how Yankee fans should feel embarrassed and ashamed for leaving early and not sticking around in the rain and freezing temperature to watch the Yankees try to erase a five-run deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning with Lyle Overbay, who was released by the Red Sox a week ago leading off. I don’t feel embarrassed or ashamed for leaving early. I feel embarrassed and ashamed for staying as long as I did.

Blogs • Rangers

Mar 27, 2013

New York Rangers in ‘The Newsroom’

A look the major storylines around the Rangers from the first with help from The Newsroom.

I love Jeff Daniels. I love HBO. I love the media industry. So when HBO aired trailers for a new series starring Jeff Daniels as a TV news anchor at a major media network, I figured it would fill the Sunday night void left by Curb Your Enthusiasm and Game of Thrones. I was wrong.

The first two episodes of The Newsroom were so hard to make it through that I fell asleep during the first episode (I re-watched it later) and actually stopped the second episode before its conclusion.

But after a few days wondering why Aaron Sorkin would write dialogue between characters in a way that no one speaks to each other in real life (if all the 20-somethings at ACN were that smart and that witty they wouldn’t be struggling to earn a living like Maggie suggests they are when she spends “her last $7” in one episode), I decided to go back to the second episode and give The Newsroom another chance. And by the end of that episode, the series picked up and after that it gained steam throughout the summer and left me feeling satisfied that I had stuck it out to make it to the season finale on Aug. 26.

This Rangers’ season has been stuck in the first half of Episode 2 of The Newsroom. But I think, well more like I’m hoping and praying, the 5-2 win over the Flyers on Tuesday night is the end of Episode 2 and the Rangers are about to go on their run and turn their season around the way Will McAvoy turned his series around.

The Rangers have one-third of their season left and the opportunity for “Midseason Awards” is no longer really possible. So instead let’s look at what’s happened over the first 32 games and two-thirds of the season that has the Rangers fighting for a playoff berth with some help from The Newsroom.

MacKenzie: “Where’s a power outage when you really need one?”

I thought the Rangers’ 3-0 loss to the Penguins on Jan. 31 at the Garden was the worst hockey-watching experience of my life. The Rangers trailed after 1:24 and never had a legitimate scoring opportunity in the game. They were shutout, 3-0, at home to one of the two teams (Boston being the other) they were “supposed” to compete with for the East crown this season. The game was an embarrassment on so many different levels that I didn’t think I would ever see such a poor home performance ever again. It only took seven weeks for that loss to be trumped.

Last Thursday was without a doubt the absolute worst hockey-watching experience of my life, and this time I don’t think there is a chance it will be topped. However, knowing this Rangers team, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the last six home games of the season one-punches last Thursday’s game for the title.

Not only did the Rangers lose to the last-place Panthers 3-1, despite outshooting the Panthers 45-24, but I had a female Rangers fan on my left who started a “BE AGGRESSIVE! B-E AGGRESSIVE!” chant with the Rangers on the power play (to be fair she was drinking the entire game) and a family of four on my right left led by the father who compared the team to the 1962 Mets and the mother who ripped apart Marian Gaborik and was actually upset when he scored with 3:48 left in the game.

If the Rangers blew a 4-0 lead in the final four minutes of Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final that would be a miserable time, but at least you would see something historic and at least there would be goals and action and excitement and not just boring, painful-to-watch hockey.

Bryan: “Is it important that you treat me like an a–hole?”

This one goes two ways.

First, it goes to Sam Rosen, who has been made into John Tortorella’s whipping boy this season for simply asking Tortorella about the games he coaches and the decisions he makes. I’m disappointed in Rosen for handling the situation gracefully and for talking with and forgiving Tortorella on the team plane for Tortorella’s frequent lashing out. Rosen should have gone over the top with Tortorella and asked real questions that the fans want answers to. If Rosen is going to take a beating for asking hockey-related questions that lack harmful intent, he might as well go all the way and ask sarcastic questions.

The second part of this goes to Brian Boyle and why it is important that I treat him this way, which it is.

Brian Boyle is 6-foot-7. He is two inches shorter than Zdeno Chara, who is the tallest player in NHL history. Have you ever seen anyone who wants to go after Chara on the ice? No, of course you haven’t because he is 6-foot-9 and plays like it. Have you ever seen someone with Brian Boyle? Of course you have because he plays like he’s trapped in Nathan Gerbe’s 5-foot-5 body and completely wastes the main reason he has made it this far in his hockey career (his size).

On Monday, Larry Brooks wrote in the New York Post that Brian Boyle has been on the ice for three Rangers goals this season. But on Tuesday he was on the ice for a Rangers goal, so now that number is four. FOUR! F-O-U-R! How is it possible that Boyle has played in 28 games this season and only has one goal and one assist and has been on the ice for four goals and is still dressing for games. Actually how is it possible that he has those numbers over that timeframe and is still on the team? If Jeff Halpern could get waived for a 0-1-1 line in 30 games and Stu Bickel could get waived for a 0-0-0 line in 16 games, how far away are we from Boyle being waived?

Charlie: “Have you read the New York Post?”
Will: “No. My eyes are connected to my brain.”

Bobby Holik wasn’t wearing number 10 for the Rangers on Thursday night.

Wade Redden wasn’t wearing number 10 for the Rangers on Thursday night.

Scott Gomez wasn’t wearing number 10 for the Rangers on Thursday night.

None of the big-name, free-agent busts of the past were wearing number 10 on Thursday night. Marian Gaborik was wearing number 10.

Marian Gaborik has played 251 games with the Rangers. He has 114 goals and 115 assists in those games. He has two 40-plus goal seasons with the Rangers (2009-10 and 2011-12). So why was everyone at MSG booing him on Thursday night? Why was my friend Jim texting me trade proposals for Gaborik from across the MSG ice? The mainstream media, that’s why.

There is this idea that the Rangers no longer need Gaborik, or that his play has been in a free fall since last spring because he has a 9-10-19 line in 32 games. No one mentions that he’s recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and that he battled his way through the playoffs with a torn labrum. No one mentions that Tortorella has used every possible line combination in just 32 games and the lack of chemistry between the team’s best forwards is clearly evident. No one mentions that Gaborik has played left wing his entire life and that Tortorella moved him to right wing despite Gaborik saying he’s uncomfortable on that side of the ice.

Without Gaborik, John Tortorella isn’t the Rangers head coach today. That’s a fact. Without his scoring and Lundqvist’s goaltending last season, the Rangers wouldn’t have been the top seed in the East and most likely would have missed the playoffs for the second time in three years. But Tortorella treats him like a fourth-line plug by benching him and asking him to play a blue-collar style of hockey by sacrificing his body for blocked shots and going into the corners with a purpose rather than being the elite goal scorer he is and is getting paid to be.

If you think Marian Gaborik is the Rangers’ problem then you’re likely someone who screams, “Shoot! Shoot it! Shoot it!” whenever any Ranger on the power play touches the puck. (I think Michael Del Zotto must hear and listen to these unintelligent fans since he does just that whenever he touches the puck on the power play, usually shooting it into someone’ shin pads or missing the next and shooting it into the corner.) Or you’re someone who treats the MSG T-shirt toss like there are blank checks wrapped up inside the shirts. (It’s scary what people will do for free T-shirts or foul balls.)

When Gaborik records a point, the Rangers are 7-3-2. The problem is that’s only 12 games and the Rangers have played 32 games. Gaborik does need to step up his game, but the treatment by him from the media and unintelligent fans has been unwarranted.

Maggie: “I never knew what the word ‘smug’ meant until I met you.”

Here’s John Tortorella’s resume dating back to his first season as head coach of Tampa Bay.

2001-02, Tampa Bay: Missed playoffs

2002-03, Tampa Bay: Lost in second round

2003-04, Tampa Bay: Won Stanley Cup

2005-06, Tampa Bay: Lost in first round

2006-07, Tampa Bay: Lost in first round

2007-08, Tampa Bay: Missed playoffs

2008-09, Rangers: Lost in first round

2009-10, Rangers: Missed playoffs

2010-11, Rangers: Lost in first round

2011-12, Rangers: Lost in Eastern Conference Finals

That’s one Stanley Cup, one Eastern Conference Finals loss, one second-round loss, four first-round exits and three missed playoffs. If Martin Gelinas’ goal counts in Game 6, I’m not here writing about John Tortorella and you’re not reading about John Tortorella because of the resume surrounding his Cup win with the Lightning. But 2003-04 did happen, so here we are.

If the Rangers miss the playoffs (let’s hope this doesn’t happen), Tortorella has to be fired. He has to be. He has one year remaining on his deal for 2013-14 that the Rangers would have to eat, but this is an organization that has eaten and wasted a lot more money than a one-year salary for a head coach for that one year to scare them away from letting him go.

I said last year that the Rangers had to make the Eastern Conference Finals for Tortorella to keep his job. Given their roster and the idea of winning now while Lundqvist is in his prime and while Nash, Gaborik and Richards are still effective (or should still be effective), I think the same goal holds true even if this season should have been about more than just reaching the conference finals.

It’s one thing to be “smug” if you’re Scotty Bowman and you have won the Cup nine times as a head coach in the NHL. But when you’re hanging your hat on one Cup and a lot of underachieving seasons in 12 years, you might want to lose the attitude because those media members you treat like dip spitters might be your colleagues one day when you’re fired and the only job available is one with a microphone in your hand.

My real problem with Tortorella is that he hasn’t proven himself in this city, but acts like his achievements in Tampa Bay hold weight here. They don’t. No Rangers fan cares what you did nine years ago with a Lightning team that had Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis and a 24-year-old Brad Richards. Two first-round exits, two missed playoffs and a conference finals loss isn’t enough to act like a winner in New York City. And being on the playoff bubble with Nash, Gaborik, Richards and Lundqvist is unacceptable.

MacKenzie: “Be the moral center of this show, be the integrity!”

The keyword here is “center.” Brad Richards plays center. He has five goals and 13 assists in 30 games. He has four points on the power play (the power play he is supposed to run) and just one of them is a goal. He is making $12 million this season. He made $12 million last season. If he plays out his entire Rangers contract, he will make $60 million over nine years.

When Richards signed with the Rangers I was worried about his concussion-riddled past and what it would mean if he sustained another one. I wasn’t worried about his scoring and playmaking ability. I’m not worried about it now either. I’m petrified.

But Richards did play his best game of the season on Tuesday night in Philadelphia (or maybe it just felt like that since he has played so many bad games). He scored on the power play in the second, added an assist in the third, shot the puck and even mixed it up in some scrums in front of the Flyers’ net after whistles. It was almost like the word “urgency” meant something to him or that he realized he is making $12 million and playing well a couple games a year comes with making $12 million.

Will: “What does winning look like to you?”

If we could go back in time to 13 months ago when I was campaigning for the Rangers to trade for Rick Nash, how many people that didn’t want to give up Chris Kreider back then wish the Rangers had? I think all of them.

Nash been the Rangers’ best player this season with 28 points in 28 games and leads the team in goals (12) and assists (16) despite missing four games. The Rangers are 16-10-2 (34 points) when he plays and 0-3-1 (1 point) when he doesn’t. He has been everything the Rangers could have asked for when they traded for him and everything they thought he could be when they almost traded for him 13 months ago.

The 2011-12 Rangers came within two wins of playing in the Stanley Cup Final without Nash. Would they have been able to beat the Kings if they made it there? Most likely not, but who knows? All we know is that the Rangers didn’t get a chance to find out because they couldn’t score enough goals against the Devils. They couldn’t score enough goals because once the lucky bounces and garbage goals they had been accustomed to producing in the regular season stopped happening, their real, true goal-scoring abilities were shown. And with Marian Gaborik playing with a torn labrum, those true goal-scoring abilities were limited to secondary options.

The 2011-12 season was the Rangers’ best chance at winning the Cup since 1996-97. It was the first time they had seen the Eastern Conference Finals in 15 years and everything, and I mean eve-ry-thing, broke their way during the regular season and the playoffs, prior to Adam Henrique’s overtime goal in Game 6, for the Rangers to even make it that far. The amount of come-from-behind wins and last-minute wins (or sometimes last-second wins) and overtime and shootout wins in the regular season was unbelievable. The Vezina play from Henrik Lundqvist, who took it up to a previously unknown level, was incredible and the bounces that went their way to survive two seven-games series and win both Game 7s were unthinkable.

The stars aligned for the Rangers to get to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2011-12 and when you look at the path that was put out for them with a first-round matchup against Ottawa and with Boston and Pittsburgh both eliminated in the first round and Philadelphia eliminated in the second round, it was a New York Giants-esque road to a championship.

I don’t want to look back on the 2011-12 season in a decade when the MSG Network is still creating new documentaries about the 1993-94 season because that was the last time the Rangers made meaningful memories in the spring and summer and think about what could have been if the Rangers traded for Nash five months earlier than they did.

P.S. Chris Kreider has two goals and one assist in 14 games and has been sent down to the AHL twice.

MacKenzie: “When should I start to worry?”
Maggie: “I’d have started already.”

The idea of watching the Stanley Cup playoffs without a real interest has crossed my mind, but I haven’t given it much thought since I also push it away with the notion of “They’ll be fine.” But will they be?

If losing to Florida at home or needing to rally to steal a point from the Capitals is the way this season is going to go and end over the next month then maybe the season won’t ever get out of Episode 2.

So, yes, MacKenzie, I’d have started already too.