Keefe To The City

Sep 24, 2013

At Least the 2013 Yankees Went the Distance

The Yankees aren’t going to the playoffs, but surprisingly I’m not as devastated about it as everyone thinks I would be.

It’s only fitting that J.R. Murphy struck out to end the season on Sunday. And it’s only fitting that Mark Reynolds provided the Yankees’ only run with a solo home run. And it’s only fitting that it was Zoilo Almonte’s baserunning error that cost the Yankees in the seventh inning. It’s only fitting that a 22-year-old catching prospect, the Cleveland Indians’ Opening Day designated hitter and the Yankees’ replacement outfielder’s replacement helped decide a must-win game for the 2013 Yankees.

I eliminated the Yankees back on Aug. 8 when I wrote “The Yankees’ Nightmare Season Is Over.” I wrote that column out of frustration following the three-game sweep at the hands of the White Sox, but I still believed they would find a way to reach the postseason even if it were as the lousy second wild card. They had Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson back in the lineup, Alfonso Soriano back in the Bronx and Derek Jeter on his way back and 49 games left to make up the ground they lost on the 2-6 road trip to Los Angeles, San Diego and Chicago.

Since blowing leads in the ninth and 12th to the White Sox on Aug. 8, the Yankees have gone 25-18, which is actually quite impressive given their health status, but not enough to play in Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff. They were forced into a must-win nine-game stretch to finish the season against the Giants, Rays and Astros to have somewhat of a chance at Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff, but they failed to meet that goal in just Game 3 of 9 on Sunday, scoring one run against the Giants, who last saw .500 on June 24 (three months ago today). And the season was finally lost when last season’s World Series champion closer Sergio Romo got the 22-year-old Murphy to chase the same slider he got the Reds, Cardinals and Tigers to chase last October, but really the season was lost long before Murphy’s 13th career plate appearance.

I still don’t understand the people that refer to early-season baseball as “meaningless April and May games” or say things like, “It isn’t even the All-Star break yet.” These are probably the same people that think Bud Selig’s replay system, which will put more value on innings seven through nine than innings one through six, is a good idea. But it’s these people that are calling for Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman’s jobs on sports radio these days (their jobs aren’t on the line, but if they were, they should be called into question for reasons other than not making the playoffs this season) and flooding Twitter with rage about the Yankees not beating the Giants on Sunday or being swept by the Red Sox last weekend. But because baseball doesn’t “count” until Game 50, or Memorial Day or the All-Star break or any other made-up checkpoint or arbitrary date, I guess neither did any of the Yankees’ losses before then either.

The Yankees lost a lot of winnable games throughout the season and games that their full roster and previous Yankees teams would have won, but two series stick out the most: the four-game sweep by the Mets and the three-game sweep by the White Sox. I don’t think I need to tell you where they would be if they had won just three of those seven games or where they would be if they could have won four of the seven. Or where they would be if they had done just a little better than 1-6 in their last seven games against the Red Sox. Even with their incredible record in one-run games, the Yankees had plenty of chances to play in Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff (thanks in large part to Toronto) and every other team vying to play in Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff — Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Texas, Kansas City and Baltimore — all did their part in trying to help the Yankees reach the postseason for the 18th time in the last 19 seasons. The Yankees didn’t meet them half way over the last two months and now they have run out of schedule.

I don’t think the Yankees are looking at an upcoming season or seasons of embarrassment like the Red Sox endured in 2010 and 2012 (and would have continued to endure if the Dodgers didn’t bail them out) or the Mets have been enduring since their September collapses. Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff has made sure that barely-above-average teams like the 2013 Yankees will be in contention for a postseason berth as long as they can tread water slightly above .500.

The Yankees are four games out of a playoff spot and still alive in Game 157 when they barely had a recognizable roster for the first 113 games and saw every would-be Opening Day position player miss significant time except for Robinson Cano and Ichiro Suzuki. Derek Jeter played 17 games, Mark Teixeira played 15, Alex Rodriguez 42 (so far), Kevin Youkilis 28, Curtis Granderson 55 (so far), Francisco Cervelli 17 and Travis Hafner (81). (Brett Gardner played in 145 games, but injured his oblique and would have been available in a limited role, if at all, in the playoffs.) Here are the Yankees’ current leaders by games played for each position:

C – Chris Stewart
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Eduardo Nunez
SS – Jayson Nix
LF – Vernon Wells
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Travis Hafner

Aside from the previously mentioned Murphy and Almonte, the Yankees called on David Adams, Luis Cruz, Brennan Boesch, Reid Brignac, Brendan Ryan, Chris Nelson, Brent Lillibridge, Alberto Gonzalez, Melky Mesa, Thomas Neal, Corban Joseph and the legendary Travis Ishikawa to replace first-ballot Hall of Famers, All-Stars and everyday major leaguers.

As for the rotation, CC Sabathia was shut down with a hamstring injury over the weekend, Andy Pettitte was placed on the DL in late May, David Phelps has thrown 23 pitches in September, but before then hadn’t pitched since July 4 and Michael Pineda still hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Yankees since becoming a Yankee. And even worse than any injury or terrible replacement was Phil Hughes, who might as well have been injured, with his 13 losses and 5.07 ERA on the season with still a start to go. I’m sure A.J. Burnett is wondering why I let Hughes off easy and spent hundreds of thousands of words each season on Burnett. But don’t worry, A.J.! The offseason is extra long this year and there are plenty of words to be written.

And because of the extra long offseason with no baseball in October, there will be plenty of time to look back on the 2013 season as a whole and not just how Phil Hughes did his part to ruin it. But with the Yankees four games out with six games to play and Number 42 and Number 46 making their final appearances, I thought it was necessary to look at the 2013 Yankees for taking the possibility of the postseason farther than I thought they would when they opened the season 1-4 and farther than I thought they would with the double blown save against the White Sox on Aug. 8.

Now it’s time to ask my friends who are Red Sox fans and Met fans what I’m supposed to do in October.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s a busy week and that means a quick rundown for the Week 3 picks.

It’s a busy week, so let’s keep it short and sweet.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 over Kansas City
If Chip Kelly knew how to manage the clock in the NFL then the Eagles could be 2-0 with a chance to beat Andy Reid in his homecoming to be the best team in the NFC East.

BALTIMORE +2.5 over Houston

San Diego +3 over TENNESSEE
It’s the Must-Not Watch Game of the Week, so … Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chargers fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

St. Louis +3.5 over DALLAS
Are the Rams a team on the rise after their 7-9 season last year and impressive 4-1-1 record in the NFC West? Or are they just the usual Sam Bradford Rams? Even if they are only the Sam Bradford Rams, that should be good enough in Dallas against a Cowboys team that barely won a game in which their unnamed opponent turned the ball over six times and a Cowboys team that lost to Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the road.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots don’t cover games. They still get the dynasty era respect, but they aren’t that same team. They will win enough games to win the AFC East and reach the postseason because of their schedule, but they can’t be trusted to win games for covering purposes. If you’re looking for that team, it’s the Broncos.

MINNESOTA -6 over Cleveland
I think the Vikings are better than their 0-2 record says they are because my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, makes me believe they are. So if they can’t cover against the Browns at home, I blame her.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Arizona
The Saints at the Superdome against the Cardinals. That sentence should say all you need to know.

WASHINGTON -1.5 over Detroit
When you take a dome team out of their dome, bad things happen. The Saints and Falcons are unstoppable and unbeatable at their homes and while the Lions don’t have the same home success of those two teams, they play just as poorly as them when they are on the road.

Green Bay +3 over CINCINNATI
I want to buy into the Bengals and their bandwagon, which is running out of seats (I checked on StubHub and Craigslist), but against the Packers, even if they’re not the same Packers everyone is selling us on, I have to go with Aaron Rodgers over Andy Dalton.

New York Giants +1 over CAROLINA
The Giants aren’t playing for their season in Carolina, but they kind of are. A loss to the Panthers will start the “Only (some number) of teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs” talk for every media outlet until next Sunday. So I have to pick the Giants to cover because I think they will win. They kind of have to.

MIAMI -2 over Atlanta
Remember what I said for about the Lions earlier? If you do, then you know that I wrote about the Falcons in that summary and what kind of road team they are.

SEATTLE -19 over Jacksonville
It’s the first college football line in the NFL in a while and it could be -35 and I would still take the Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts are in a bad spot going to San Francisco with the 49ers coming off back-to-back losses. A very bad spot.

Buffalo +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Giants are 0-2 and the Jets are 1-1 and the Giants are being talked about like they are the Jets, while the Jets are being talked about like they are the … well, they are still being talked about like they are the Jets because everyone is waiting for them to fall apart. The only way for them to fall apart is to start losing games like a home game against the Bills.

Chicago -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
If the Steelers’ team name were anything, but the “Steelers” this week, this line would be probably Chicago -4.5 or higher. But because the Steelers are the Steelers and have the following and garner the attention that they do, they are only 2.5-point underdogs at home despite being really bad.

DENVER -14.5 over Oakland
The Broncos’ line are only going to keep getting higher and higher and higher until you can’t take them anymore. So take them while you can.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 10-20-2

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Sep 16, 2013

Giants-Broncos Week 2 Thoughts: Excuses for Eli Manning

Eli Manning isn’t worried that he threw four interceptions and lost to his brother again or that the Giants are 0-2 and playing for their season in Week 3.

I’m really good at making excuses for Eli Manning. Like really, really good. I’m so good that I would be surprised if Archie or Olivia or Peyton or Cooper are as good as me at making excuses for the youngest member of their family. Why am I so good at this? I think it’s because I think Eli is better than his numbers seem to suggest or better than everyone gives him credit for. And because of that I thought the Giants would get the last laugh at Vegas for making 5 1/2-point underdogs at home against the Broncos and Eli would win what’s likely to be the final Manning Bowl. Instead, Vegas got the last laugh (at me) and Peyton added another footnote to help his case in any Manning debate forever.

How am I supposed to make an excuse for Eli after Sunday’s performance against the Broncos after last Sunday’s performance against the Cowboys? How can I sit here and tell you neither loss was Eli’s fault (or at least mostly his fault)? Should I also tell you that the day after Sunday is Tuesday or that Thanksgiving isn’t always on a Thursday or that CC Sabathia isn’t a complete waste of $23 million this year or that I’m looking forward to a postseason-less October for the Yankees? No, no, no and no. I can’t sit here today and make excuses for Eli Manning, but I don’t need to. Eli has made excuses for himself.

That’s right. Two Super Bowl MVPs or not, Eli Manning answered questions after a four-interception performance in a loss as if to say, “No big deal.” And maybe it is “no big deal” for a quarterback playing with a $106.9 million contract, but that’s also why it should be a big deal. So instead of the usual “Thoughts” following each Giants game, let’s analyze Eli’s postgame answers.

On his level of concern for the way things are going.

“I think we’ll bounce back and I thought there were some good things. The first half I thought we had a lot of opportunities. I think that’s where we did some really good things. We just didn’t get touchdowns. We got field goals and in the second half we had a weird interception off of a foot and we tried to fight back.”

Wow. What a way to start answering questions after an 18-point, four-interception loss that puts the Giants in an 0-2 hole. What a way to open the postgame media session. This would be like CC Sabathia opening a postgame session after giving up five earned runs in five innings or blowing a late-game lead by saying that he needs to get better and he will fix things and turn it around only to never get better, never fix things, turn nothing around and continue to lose. Wait a second …

“Some good things?” “Some really good things?!?!” “SOME REALLY GOOD THINGS?!?!” You threw four interceptions. Hakeem Nicks dislocated his finger. David Wilson rushed for 17 yards on seven carries. Brandon Jacobs rushed for four yards on seven carries. The famous pass rush recorded zero sacks. Should I go on?

But you’re right, in the first half there were some opportunities. And you’re right that you and offensive genius Kevin Gilbride destroyed every opportunity by settling for field goals. And saying “We just didn’t get touchdowns” so nonchalantly is just a little bit of a problem. And it was a nice touch trying to act like the “weird interception off of a foot” was the reason for the loss or the only interception and not just one of four interceptions that included three incredible picks that left me asking myself if I even like football.

“When we got down a couple of scores and tried to press, it could go either way. You could make some plays hopefully and also make some mistakes. We were in a bind. The offense, we have to get a little more balanced. We have to run the ball better and we have to eliminate the turnovers. I think we’ll keep fighting and get back on track. I know everybody in our division lost today, so the way we can look at it, we’re one game back in the division. We’ve got to get back to winning some games.”

You don’t think the offense is balanced? You don’t think 812 passing yards and 73 rushing yards through two games is balanced? Get the eff out of here! Me too!

And everyone else in the NFC East lost on Sunday? Well, when you put it that way who even cares that the Giants lost? Just like who cares that the Yankees lost on Sunday since the Rays and Rangers lost?

On going 3-for-12 on third downs.

“We’ll have to look. Just had a couple … I can think of one drop, some misfires, I got pressured on a few things. I think a couple were down in the red zone that were unfortunate. If we could have converted on those, they could have led to scoring touchdowns and not field goals.”

Yes, “we’ll have to look” at how you can convert 25 percent of your third downs with a receiving trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. It’s at least a little reassuring that you do realize that converting first downs in the red zone is an important factor in scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. At least we’re on the right track.

On whether or not the season feels like 2007.

“We just have to play better. I’m not trying to make comparisons to years obviously … You can look at it the same, but we have to find a way to play better. Better offense, better defense. I thought the defense played really well that last two weeks, so we have to help them out by scoring some more points and putting the opposing offense in a bind.”

Thank you, Eli! Finally, someone with their head on straight. Can everyone else please stop talking about 2007? Please? Does every 0-2 team go on to win 10 of their remaining 14 games and then win four road games in the postseason and knock off what would have been the best team in NFL history in the Super Bowl? If so, then forget me telling you to stop talking about 2007 and go on and continue to lazily use that storyline and connection and try to relive the most improbable playoff run. But that team had a pass rush and an 1,000-yard rusher. This team has turned the ball over 10 times, has two sacks and 73 rushing yards in eight quarters. Let’s hold the comparisons for a week or two or until the Giants get a win.

On whether or not Peyton will tease him about never beating him.

“I don’t think so. I think this is something that we’re both passionate about. What we’re doing is our job. It’s my concern to this team and getting back to winning right now.”

Oh, he’s definitely going to tease you. But luckily you have that trump card in the second ring and both of them coming against Tom Brady, who Peyton has had trouble beating his entire career.

On if the loss is more disappointing because it’s against Peyton.

“It’s all team-related. You want to go out there and play well, so you’re frustrated that you lost another game. We had some opportunities early on. Their offense started clicking and making some plays. We had turnovers and we just couldn’t catch any breaks. We just really want to get back to where we’re playing better football offensively and get back on track.”

Oh, BS. You know it bothers you that you lost to your older brother and have never beat him.

On the interception intended for Nicks at the end of the first half.

“Just a bad decision by me. I was really just trying to kind of … in a little … on a blitz and trying to throw the ball away, where we wouldn’t get an intentional grounding, but we would get it close. It was unfortunate that I threw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.”

You didn’t “throw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.” You threw it to their guy as if he was the guy trying to make the play. “Unfortunate” was a good word to use.

On the fourth and final interception.

“The last one was on me. Rueben did the right thing, he ran the right route and I threw the wrong route.”

Not only did you throw the wrong route, but I would say that was the worst interception of your career. And that’s coming one week after I said your first throw of the 2013 season, which was an interception, was the worst of your career. OK, maybe the one from last week is still the worst, but this one has to be Top 5. I’m scared to know what’s in store for Week 3 and if you’re going to try to one-up yourself all season with these.

On the pass to Cruz on the first play of the game.

“It was honestly a great way to start the game. Our defense got us a turnover and to hit Cruz on a big one down the field on the first play and then got another first down running with Brandon, it was a good drive. We had a third and long and weren’t able to convert on that one, had to settle for a field goal, but it was a good start. First half there was really good things going on, we just didn’t finish some drives as well as we needed to.”

This is why the interception last week was so insane. The Giants had an entire offseason to decide what the first play of the season would be and Eli threw the ball directly into DeMarcus Ware’s chest. Then they had a week to decide how they would attack the Broncos from the start of the game and they decided on airing it out, which led to a 51-yard pass to Cruz. It was the best play of the day because it set the tone after the Broncos punted, but it also made the day that more frustrating (and of course last week’s season-opening interception that much more unfathomable).

On throwing seven interception in two games.

“Yeah, that’s never a goal. Before the season I like to set goals, keeping interceptions in the single digits. I kind of have to start over here. Obviously, some of them happen and you have to look at decisions and you get some bad breaks. Sometimes you get late in games, fourth-and-10 and we have to make a play and force something here and whether it’s intercepted or incomplete, an interception probably ends up being better right there for us field position-wise. At the end of games or when you’re competing, I’m going to be aggressive and not worry about the stats or quarterback rating at the end. Honestly I’m not trying to throw interceptions, but obviously I’m just worried about getting back to playing well offensively and eliminating some of these turnovers.”

I think you could have gone without saying “that’s never a goal.” I’m pretty sure no one was going to ask if you that was a goal of yours. And I hate to break it to you, but Brendan Ryan (who has 19 career home runs in 2,327 at-bats) has a better chance of hitting double-digit home runs in 2013 (he has four home runs and there are 12 games left) than you do of keeping your interception total to single digits this season. Starting over is a good idea. We can come up with some goals this week before the Carolina game. (I already have some in mind.) And good for you for not worrying about stats or quarterback rating or anything that puts your team in a better position to win. Just keep doing what you’re doing. It’s obviously working.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 13, 2013

Giants-Broncos Means Manning Bowl III

The Broncos are in town for Manning Bowl III and that calls for an email exchange with Ian Henson of Mile High Report.

Peyton Manning might very well be the best regular-season quarterback in the history of the NFL. But when it comes to the postseason, Peyton is the second-best quarterback in his family. Eli Manning can always use the second Super Bowl ring to quiet his critics and his brother and the fact that he beat Tom Brady (which is something Peyton has had a lot of trouble doing) for both of his Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVPs. But when it comes to the direct battle of Manning brother supremacy, Eli falls short with an 0-2 record in the Manning Bowl (2006 and 2010). On Sunday, however, Eli has a chance to close the gap a little more on which Manning is the best Manning if he can upset his brother and the Broncos at MetLife Stadium.

Ian Henson of Mile High Report joined me for an email exchange with the Broncos in town for Manning Bowl III this weekend to talk about how confident Broncos fans are, whether or not they trust Peyton in the playoffs and what will happen this Sunday in East Rutherford.

Keefe: The last time the Giants played the Broncos it ruined Thanksgiving. The Giants opened the 2009 season winning five straight games and then immediately lost four games. They came off their bye to beat the Falcons in overtime in Week 11 and then made the trip to the Denver for Thanksgiving night. Broncos 26, Giants 6.

Eli Manning threw for 230 yards and Brandon Jacobs and D.J. Ware each ran for 27 yards and the Broncos’ 16-0 halftime lead was too much to overcome.

After that game the Giants lost three of their final five games and gave up 166 points combined in those five games, finishing the season 8-8.

This time the Broncos have a chance to put the Giants’ season on life alert in Week 2. After this game, the Giants go on the road to face the Panthers, who will be looking for revenge from their Week 2 embarrassment against the Giants last year and then to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, who knows the Giants better than any coach in the league, and his new team.

With the Yankees battling for their wild-card lives I was looking forward to Giants and football season, but is it possible that it might be in serious trouble on Sept. 15? What’s it like to have your team coming off the most impressive Week 1 win in the league in which you dismantled the Super Bowl champions and your quarterback tied a single-game touchdown record?

Henson: Up until 2011, in the Season of Tebow, I had never been to a Denver Broncos game in which they had lost (and I have been to a lot of games). The last time the Broncos played the New York Giants in Denver, I was there. My phone blew up after the Josh McDaniels, “I just want to win a f—in’ game!” I had no idea what people were talking about, they got it from the NFL Network, I obviously couldn’t hear McDaniels from where I was sitting. I never considered traveling to be such a big factor when I was younger, but I know from living in New York and Denver, that the flight is just about as long as it is from New York to Los Angeles. Brutal for a flight in which you’re taking off and landing in the same country.

I have to confess, I was 18 when I moved to New York City, I was too young to get into any bars, thus forced to watch games wherever I could. That usually meant at home, this is how I developed a kinship with the Giants, they were always on and unable to see Broncos games in 2001 in a bar made me develop an interest. I will cheer for the Giants in any game that does not involve the Broncos.

The last time Denver and New York met, the Broncos had traded Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for two first-round draft picks, a third round and Kyle Orton. Orton had an atrocious preseason and had Denver fans begging for him to be benched in favor of Chris Simms. Fans hated McDaniels from the start; then the season started and the Broncos under McDaniels went 6-0 (including an overtime victory in which McDaniels beat his old coach Bill Belichick), the team went on to lose their next four games and in the meantime Orton got injured. Thanksgiving 2009, the Giants and Broncos game happened.

Orton’s first game back, the team was still in the playoff hunt, in a very weak AFC West. The Broncos went on to win against the Giants and the next week they whooped the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos travled to Indianapolis and Peyton Manning squashed what was left of Denver, even a record day by Brandon Marshall breaking Terrell Owens’ single-game catch record with 21 for 200 yards and two touchdowns did nothing. The Broncos picked off Manning three times, but Orton could not capitalize and in Week 14 the Colts had already secured home field advantage for the playoffs. Manning was always a Bronco killer, he has yet to prove that he doesn’t remain a Bronco killer.

In 2012, the Broncos were one of the best teams in the league, the Ravens weren’t. Denver easily handled a neutered Baltimore team in the regular season. The playoffs were an entirely different animal though, two overtimes later, the Ravens move on and the Broncos are sent back home. Tebow fans were commenting how he had gotten the Broncos that far, what was the point of Peyton Manning? Denver did not game plan for a single game in the preseason this year and as far as I can tell, started running scout team preparing for the Baltimore game in Week 2 or Week 3 of the preseason. Baltimore had no choice, no one could have guessed that Manning would throw seven touchdowns, but the only doubt anyone had was whether or not Denver could be over or under on the point spread.

It isn’t homerism to say that Denver is really good this season, that Baltimore game was without Von Miller and without Champ Bailey. The Broncos have replaced their running game with Wes Welker and Julius Thomas is scary good if he can stay healthy. Even Denver’s fourth string receiver caught a touchdown. It’s good for the week to be on top, but the Giants have ruined a previous Broncos perfect season before. In 1998, Denver was 13-0, came to Giants stadium and lost 16-20. New York killed the Broncos undefeated season and it was by less than a touchdown (a trend the Giants would be so famous for in 2007).

During our podcast, we neglected to mention that Eli has never beat Peyton. I don’t know how much that is coming up in New York, but as we are both aware, this may be the last chance that he gets. Peyton’s not likely to still be playing in three seasons when the AFC West and the NFC East meet again. I think that amateurs may point to the Giants shaky running game, but Denver shut down Ray Rice in week one. New York’s running game is a trap basically, Pro Football Focus pointed out that both Champ Bailey and Chris Harris were top 15 corners in the NFL last season, but if Bailey is healthy, it would probably be a better thing for the Giants. Harris will be on Victor Cruz, Harris spent the entire preseason and training camp pairing with Wes Welker and you have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie back in his natural position and matched up once again with Hakeem Nicks. This is why I say Bailey is the liability. I think Denver is much better off with Tony Carter on Reuben Randle than Champ on Randle.

I see no way that Denver runs the ball though and if the game is a shootout they probably wouldn’t want to anyway.

Keefe: We neglected to mention that Eli has never beaten Peyton because who wants to bring up that sore subject?!?! However, the Giants could gave beaten the Colts and therefore Eli would have beaten Peyton if not for the phantom pass interference call in the 2006 game that left Al Michaels and John Madden in shock on the broadcast. So maybe it would be 1-1 if not for the call that should have never been called, but it’s not and Peyton holds the 2-0 advantage.

Eli does the hold advantage when it comes to championships, which is all that really matters, isn’t it? But you could make the case that if not for Pierre Garcon’s terrible drop against the Saints in the Super Bowl and the onside kick against the Colts to open the second half, Peyton never would have been set up to throw a game-clinching interception and he would be 2-0 in Super Bowls as well.

But since this has turned into an Eli-Peyton discussion, for the moment, and if championships are all that matters (and they are, especially for fans), then how do you feel about the Broncos chances’ this season? You saw what Peyton can do firsthand in the regular season last year and in one regular-season game this year, but you also saw what he could do in the postseason when he seems to come up short in the big spot (even if he isn’t responsible for the defensive coverage on Jacoby Jones). Knowing how good the Broncos are and how good Peyton is and can be and how weak the AFC West and AFC are in 2013, are the Broncos going to be there in the end, barring any devastating injuries?

Henson: I will point out that I hated Peyton Manning as a Broncos fan for every single season of his career up until 2012. I remember the game that you are talking about, but much like the Giants last two Super Bowls, it could have gone either way. Eli makes the play when it counts, twice now and probably once or twice more before he is finished with his career. The same could be said for Peyton in his Super Bowl loss, one miss throw to Tracy Porter and they lose, last season in the playoffs he tosses an interception to Corey Graham to end the first overtime. Three plays later, the game is over. Eli doesn’t do that so much.

The Broncos handled the Ravens and I don’t think that the Ravens are a bad team, I thought that the Cincinnati Bengals would take the AFC North, but they just got toppled by the Chicago Bears. I think that Baltimore and Denver see each other again in the post season. The parallels between 2012 and 1996 for Denver are too many, 1997 of course was the year the 0-4 (in Super Bowls) Broncos finally made it 1-4. I think this season, even without Peyton Denver can make a playoff run. People were quick to point out that the Broncos were on their third center and without Von Miller, but Denver just extended Manny Ramirez for two more seasons and Shaun Phillips (Von’s backup) has 2.5 sacks and is currently second in the NFL. Their depth is scary and the AFC is in shambles right now. Houston almost lost to San Diego, the Raiders nearly handed to to the Colts, New England? Name a receiver on the Patriots that is healthy and not named Edelman…

What is going to be interesting to me is watching Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs vs. the NFC East. The Chiefs are returning 11 Pro Bowlers from last season, Reid, as much as people may dislike him in the NFC East, is a great coach. Give him Alex Smith, who doesn’t often make mistakes, Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe … Pack that in with the fact that he’s been playing two games against every team in your division outside of his own team and man … That’s going to be fun entertainment. The AFC West may actually be the reason that the Giants win the NFC East this season. No one thinks the AFC West is worth anything, but look at Week One and how they handled themselves. I don’t know how long Terrelle Pryor will be a thing, but Mike McCoy won a playoff game with Tim Tebow, I think that he will be alright with Philip Rivers.

Speaking of Rivers, how do Giants fans feel about him?

Keefe: I have no reason to dislike Philip Rivers for any reason other than that he would have been the Giants quarterback, which I guess is enough of a reason to dislike him when you look at what he has accomplished in his carer compared to Eli Manning. It’s hard to justify not liking someone who has never really affected your team other than they would have been your franchise quarterback if things unfolded differently. It’s not like he’s David Ortiz or the baseball Manny Ramirez or Martin Brodeur or Tony Romo or Donovan McNabb or someone that has given you on-the-field reasons to not like them. I don’t like Rivers because had Archie Manning not made sure the Chargers didn’t draft Eli, he would have been a Giant. (It seems pretty stupid when you actually write it out.)

You talked about how the AFC West isn’t as bad as everyone might have thought before the season, but when I look at it I just see early-season hype storylines in Andy Reid succeeding in Kansas City, Terrelle Pryor being the much-needed franchise quarterback in Oakland and San Diego being revitalized and nearly knocking off Houston. I say “hype storylines” because these seem to be more for talking head shows rather than for real life. and it wouldn’t surprise me if all three of those teams were afterthoughts by the middle of October. (Though I’m sure it wouldn’t surprise you either.) That means the Broncos are set up to most likely run the table in division matchups and then would just need to go something like 4-6 in their other 10 games to reach the postseason and they’re already 1-0, so 3-6 now. I guess I answered my own question from earlier if the Broncos will be there in the end this year.

But there has to be something that worries you about the Broncos, isn’t there? Tell me there’s something you’re worried about because when it comes to the Giants I’m worried about just about everything. But I guess that’s Giants football no matter what year it is.

Henson: I am not a big fan and was even less of a fan of Brock Osweiler last season. Osweiler played for Dennis Erickson at Arizona State, Erickson when 6-6 and for fear of losing draft position to a new head coach’s offense Osweiler entered the draft in 2012. The Denver Broncos traded out of the Dont’a Hightower pick (Pats), then again out of the Doug Martin pick (Buccaneeers), back into the second round and picked up Derek Wolfe and Brock Osweiler. The Wolfe pick doesn’t bother me so much and may pan out to be a really good pick, but the Osweiler pick still can get me steamed. In picking up Osweiler, the Broncos missed on so many players that they had met with, scouted and knew to be good players. Denver wins the Baltimore playoff game with Doug Martin as their running back.

It doesn’t end there though, Janoris Jenkins, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins! Every one of those players could have been picked up instead of Osweiler and instead, they have Osweiler. Now, there was some PR material given out around draft time to attempt to smooth over Broncos fans and let them know that Osweiler would have been a first-round draft pick in 2013, but the Broncos got him in the second round in 2012. So, I hated the pick, more so than the player, but Osweiler looked okay in the preseason and I have no doubt that with Denver’s very easy schedule, he could win eight, nine games if the worse were to happen.

Everything that I was afraid of happened. Ryan Clady who covers Manning’s blindside is not 100 percent, Ramirez at center is really the 32nd worst starting center in the league, the running game sucks, Von Miller is out six games, Champ Bailey is probably out at least four games, Elvis Dumervil on the Ravens, Eric Decker sucking (three catches and a fumble) … I’ve covered a situation in which Manning is gone. The team just really isn’t reliant on who the players are for whatever reason. Look back at Week 1, the Broncos gave up 21 points on mistakes made by special teams and defense (Danny Trevathan’s one yard fumble celebration cost Denver seven points, turned into seven for the Ravens and Wes Welker’s punt return drop inside of the five-yard line). Jack Del Rio and John Fox have worked together two season (their first was the year Carolina went to the Super Bowl, Del Rio left to coach the Jaguars after that), both seasons their defense has been ranked second in the NFL. This is their third season, the team would be well off with basically anyone at quarterback. Who couldn’t throw to Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas? Now you throw Peyton into that mix and that’s 30-40 points a game, with a Top 10 NFL defense on the other side and one of the games best punt returners/kick returners.

I am really not this cocky about that team and I am sorry for coming off that way, I just got out of a Twitter conversation in which someone (I assume a 49ers fan) was letting me know that Colin Kaepernick is better than Peyton Manning. It’s hard to convince any Broncos fan that any new quarterback is anything other than a flavor of the day. We have witnessed Tim Tebow, through multiple seasons and see that two years later he is out of the NFL. That wasn’t Tebow winning as much as it was Denver’s defense and special teams coming through when it was clutch. Cue the 49ers, I’d like to say the Redskins too, but Mike Shanahan is an offensive genius and I think this year the Panthers could fit back into that mold. Ron Rivera has them with a stout defense again and Cam Newton just needs to air it out three to four times a game.

If the Giants are able to put together a running game, they can expose the Broncos up the middle probably. Wesley Woodyard (Denver’s middle linebacker) has just started practicing today (Thursday) and although he is good, he’s playing mike for the first time in his career and not at 100 percent. Denver would need to bring up strong safety Duke Ihenacho to assist and at that point Eli’s got the deep center over the top with only Rahim Moore to beat.

Another thing is the offensive play count, there has been much said about Philadelphia’s offensive play count, but Denver can demolish that. In the Ravens game, the Broncos only had 68 plays the whole game and exactly half of those came in the first half. In the third week of preseason, Manning had 33 plays in the first quarter and 23 plays in the second quarter (56 plays in one half). Philly had 77 in their entire game Monday night. I guess for the record in 2012, the average was 64 offensive plays per game. There are things in the Broncos arsenal that I don’t think that we will see until deep into the season, but putting up with a play count like that is going to be nearly impossible for any defense to deal with for long at 5,280 feet above sea level.

Then again, that whole thing is super hyped up. Patriots put up 94 offensive snaps in Week 1 and they damn near lost to the Buffalo Bills.

I see that you guys just put Dan Conner on season ending injured reserve, I am sure that doesn’t even really effect you though. You guys are so strong in your front seven.

Keefe: Another day, another devastating injury for the Giants. (And another devastating injury for the Yankees too as Brett Gardner hurt his left oblique striking out tonight and might be done for the season.)

Offensive play counts seem to the cool thing to care about and keep track of in the NFL now since it supposedly gives you a better chance to win. But like you said the Patriots nearly lost to the Bills (the Bills!) even with their high play total.

You mention the Giants running game possibly exposing the Broncos defense, but that would mean the Giants would have to have a running game, which they may not if Wilson is bad or fumbles again or if Da’Rel Scott plays or if Brandon Jacobs plays.

There is a lot at stake in this game. For the Giants, they need to bounce back off their six-turnover performance in Week 1 and avoid going 0-2. For the Broncos, they need to continue to prove they are the best team in the league and that Week 1 wasn’t just them taking advantage of a team rebuilding off a Super Bowl. And for Eli and Peyton it’s obviously much deeper than both of those things when it’s come to their personal rivalry, their family, their legacies and the perception of both.

It’s been almost four years since the two teams met and unless they meet in the Super Bowl between now and 2017, it will be another four until they meet again. What do you expect to happen on Sunday this time around in the Giants-Broncos meeting and the Manning Bowl?

Henson: Champ Bailey has just been ruled out for the Giants game on Sunday by John Fox. I don’t think that we were really expecting him anyway for this game and truthfully, no one is positive whether or not Bailey is needed at this point. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was targeted once in Week One, Joe Flacco sees Chris Harris laughing his ass off in Flacco’s nightmares. Tony Carter is one of the fastest players in the NFL and plays corner like he is a computer character on Madden who has been set to 99 everything and runs fundamentals perfectly.

Good news for New York is that Prince Amukamara is likely to play, I assume he takes Demaryius Thomas? And Eric Decker has already declared that he would have a better game, privately to Peyton Manning (Manning gives the offense drop statistics in their lockers after the game with that player’s name highlighted, Decker had four and a fumble last week).

Last season, Dennis Allen left the Denver Broncos as their defensive coordinator and took over the head coaching job for the Oakland Raiders. During Week 14, Allen’s Father passed away. The Broncos could have easily stomped on the Raiders, but instead turned in an incredibly conservative game and opted for field goals instead of touchdowns on four different scoring opportunities. Peyton threw for one touchdown and Knowshon Moreno ran for one off of a defensive fumble recover that ended on the Raiders’ two-yard line.

I say that story, to say this. I don’t think that anyone is going to run away with this game, if it gets to the point where Denver can offer a beat down, they won’t. The Giants are not the Baltimore Ravens. If the Giants are the ones to shift into fifth gear early, then of course Denver will attempt to keep up, but the Broncos won’t pile it on in New York. Fox used to coach there, Eli is Peyton’s brother and it’s an NFC vs. AFC game. What I do expect is for the Giants to get a turnover or two, because as bad as New Yorkers perceive David Wilson to be at fumbling, Ronnie Hillman is worse, off the top of my head, I think that he fumbled four times in the preseason, five, but one wasn’t given a red flag by the opposing coach like it should have.

Denver’s defense focuses on shutting down the opposing teams best player, so Victor Cruz may not have the greatest game, but Eli will have a ton of yards. Second-year undrafted linebacker Danny Trevathan (the one who fumbled the ball at the one-yard line, instead of scoring last week) has shut down nearly every tight end, including Jimmy Graham dating back to last season.

So, my prediction would be Broncos by two scores, unless they decide to feature Ronnie Hillman for some reason. Who covers Wes Welker? Mark Herzlich? Aaron Ross? Denver uses Welker as their ground game, a six-yard pass to Welker is just as good as a six yard run by Moreno, Montee Ball or Hillman. If you put Ross on Herzlich, how do the Giants account for Julius Thomas? It’s just too much for most, if any, defense to contain. The Broncos aren’t the 2007 New England Patriots, but Denver’s receivers are much better.

There is a huge amount of respect for the Giants receivers in Denver though, here is John Fox moments ago on your receivers, “Very formidable. Just their passing game in general — you saw what they did last week against Dallas, which is a very capable crew. Really, the difference in that game was turnovers, but otherwise offensively I think — in particular the passing game — they were right up there as far as top performances in the league.”

So there you have it, let’s see how many combined points this game can go for.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 12, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” on Sunday night with a six-turnover loss and I just had “The Disaster” in Week 1 with my picks.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

OK, maybe it’s not a “must-win game” because the Giants could bounce back from an 0-2 record even if they have to go on the road to Carolina and Kansas City in Weeks 3 and 4. But maybe I’m just saying it’s not a must-win game because the Giants have a very good chance of losing to the Broncos (and Vegas believes they will) and if they do then technically the season would be over if they lose a must-win game. So let’s not classify this game as anything (since I’m too scared to) and how about the Giants just win an important home game?

Since the “Disaster in Dallas,” the Giants have signed Brandon Jacobs, who was last with the team for the 2011 Super Bowl season before performing and talking his way out of town. And the Giants signed Jacobs because David Wilson destroyed the season opener and all Wilson’s done since that game is gotten into Twitter fights with upset Giants fans and angry fantasy team owners, which is exactly what you want your 22-year-old No. 1 running back doing in the days following him being benched.

But if the Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” then I’m going to have to also name my Week 1 Picks, which actually went worse than the Giants’ six-turnover performance against the Cowboys. So I’m calling the Week 1 Picks just “The Disaster” because that’s what it was. A 3-12-1 week to start the season (I actually went 7-8-1 in my picks pool, so I’m not sure how I managed that much of a difference) is embarrassing. But unlike CC Sabathia, when I say I’m going to try to figure things out and be better, I really am. Even if like CC, I put my season in an early hole and it might take a while to get back to respectability and over .500, I’m going to get back on track. No fake accountability here.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Jets +11.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I let Mike Hurley tell me that the Patriots blowing out the Bills was “a guarantee.” “A guarantee” he said! Everyone knows how guarantees go when it comes to NFL picks. So I went along with Hurley and his Patriots needed a last-second field goal to put away the Bills.

This week I’m going the way I wanted to go lat week which is against the Patriots because I don’t think they’re that good (there not) and their best receiver is Julian Edelman (yes, that Julian Edelman) and because my friend Scott sent me a 717-word email with the subject “Why you should bet the Pats even at -13.” (To be fair, Scott is a Patriots fan and would probably bet them even at -42.)

The Jets won’t be able to score because not only are they the Jets, but Geno Smith is their quarterback and they had trouble scoring against Tampa Bay at home. So that means I’m reeling on the Jets defense (which means I’m relying on Rex Ryan) and Tom Brady to not be able to score at will. Wait. Why am I picking the Jets again?

PHILADELPHIA -8 over San Diego
I don’t know if I buy the Chip Kelly offense hype. I don’t want to because that doesn’t mean good things for the Giants. But I’m going to buy it this week with the Chargers coming across the country for a 1:05 game after losing to the Texans in San Diego in the late edition of Monday Night Football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland
The defending champions were embarrassed in Denver to the point that their season and offseason and future have been called into question since last Thursday night. What better way to turn the negativity around than to have Brandon Weeden and the Browns come to town? The answer is none. There isn’t a better way to get your season on track than to face Weeden and the Browns at home.

HOUSTON -9.5 over Tennessee
I’m not a fan of taking the Texans with a line this high, but I’m also not a fan of needing Jake Locker to cover a game for me. And when in doubt, pick against Jake Locker.

Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Last week I said, “Because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.”

So I’m going to give the Dolphins another chance because I screwed them over in Week 1 (and in turn they screwed me over).

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO
The Bills surprised everyone when they nearly upset the Patriots in Week 1. The problem is the Bills and their fans are likely proud of their effort against the Patriots and feel as though their loss on a last-second field goal was sort of a victory. That’s why they’re the Bills. And that’s why I will pick against them.

ATLANTA -7 over St. Louis
All of these seven-plus lines this week are making me think this could be a make-or-break week given my record from Week 1, and it probably will be because I keep picking the home team and favorite to cover in them. It’s no different here with the Falcons returning home where they are just like the Saints when it comes to home-field advantage.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Washington
The Packers lost a revenge game and are coming home where it’s nearly impossible to win unless you’re the Giants and it’s the playoffs and they’re playing a Washington defense that was embarrassed by Chip Kelly’s college football and an offense led by a rusty second-year quarterback coming off knee surgery. I’m going to bank on the Packers, who haven’t lost back-to-back games in three years coming out with a purpose and helping my picks and my rooting interest in the NFC East in this one.

Dallas +3 over KANSAS CITY
I’m not going to sit and here tell you the Giants should have beaten the Cowboys even though they lost 36-31 despite making six turnovers. But I am here to tell you that I don’t think the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith is going to do much against legitimate teams even if Reid knows the NFC East better than any opposing head coach in the league.

Minnesota +6.5 over CHICAGO
It would be much easier to pick against the Vikings if my girlfriend wasn’t a Vikings fan and if they had just missed the playoffs last year and I didn’t keep thinking they were actually a “playoff” team because really Adrian Peterson was a playoff team and the Vikings were just the same old Vikings.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY
Every once in a while there is a line that comes out that makes you think “I need to jump all over this before they realize they entered it wrong.” This is one of those games. But it’s always these games that turn out to be the nail-biter. And because of that and because the Saints outside of the Superdome are not the same team as they are in it, it won’t surprise me if Drew Brees needs to go down the field with under two minutes and no timeouts to win, but not cover.

Detroit -2.5 over ARIZONA
I will always go against Carson Palmer. Always. When the line is this low it just makes it that much easier for me to do so.

OAKLAND -6 over Jacksonville
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that. (I used that write-up twice in Week 1 and will probably use it for every Jaguars game for the season because what else am I going to say about the Jaguars? Unless they finally realize they should sign Tim Tebow.)

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Denver
The last thing Eli needs to do to officially be able to tell Peyton to “Shut up” at Thanksgiving every Thanksgiving forever is to beat him directly.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE
I’m hoping for the Seahawks hype bandwagon to come to a crashing halt the way I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously in high school during the winter the night before a test or a project was due. The 49ers can start that process.

Pittsburgh +7 over CINCINNATI
The Steelers look ready to go into rebuild mode, especially when they’re losing to the Titans at home. But even though the Steelers are nowhere near the Super Bowl team they were three years ago, I’m not ready yet to start taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown at home against a team they have trouble barely beating in a nasty division rival matchup. Prove to me that you mean business, Cincinnati, and then we can talk.

Last week: 3-12-1