Keefe To The City

Oct 3, 2013

The Alain Vigneault Era Begins

Hockey season is back and the Rangers open the year against the Coyotes in Phoenix on Thursday and that means an email exchange with Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers Blog.

Hockey is backkkkkkkkkkkkkkk! Yes, it’s already been back for two days, but the Rangers open their season on Thursday night, so now it’s really back. It’s been over four months since I chose to walk to a bar in the pouring rain rather than watch the final minutes run on the 2012-13 Rangers season in Game 5 against the Bruins, but the devastating postseason ending can now be erased for a new season.

With the Rangers opening their season against the Coyotes in Phoenix on Thursday, I did an email exchange with Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers Blog to talk about the difference between Alain Vigneault and John Tortorella, Henrik Lundqvist’s contract situation and whether or not Chris Kreider will ever live up to his first-round draft status.

Keefe: The Rangers are back and just in time with both the Yankees season and Giants season ending last Sunday. After last year’s 48-game schedule was squeezed into 99 days and then the 12 postseason games the Rangers played, it seems like just last week they were being eliminated by the Bruins in Game 5 of the conference semifinals even if it was 131 days ago.

Let’s start with the biggest change for the Rangers over that time, which came at head coach with John Tortorella thankfully being fired and changing places with Vancouver’s Alain Vigneault.

I was never really a Vigneault supporter from what I had seen from afar during his three-plus years with the Canadiens and seven years with the Canucks and wasn’t really sold on him being the No. 1 target for Glen Sather and being given the job so quickly and easily. But I have gotten to learn more about him starting with his introductory press conference and how he has performed through the preseason schedule and with the media. I’m definitely all for his offensive coaching style, which won’t have players like Rick Nash and Brad Richards diving headfirst at bombs from the blue line or being asked to muck it up in the corners and sacrifice their bodies. It’s just too bad Marian Gaborik isn’t here to play under Vigneault and had to be traded during the Tortorella era. (Yes, I’m still bitter.)

DeLury: I’m not sure why any Rangers fan would be thankful that John Tortorella was fired. The guy changed the entire perception of the Rangers organization. Instead of being a country club for veteran players to cash one last huge paycheck before riding off into the sunset, Tortorella held players accountable for their actions and made sure they did things “the right way.”

He was able to convince Glen Sather that trying to buy a Stanley Cup was never going to work and that building from within was a winning strategy. Hard-working and dedicated young players such as Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky and Marc Staal were given leadership positions and became the core of the Blueshirts under Tortorella. When talented veterans such as Marian Gaborik and Brad Richards were acquired they were seen as part of the equation, not the answer. And the results proved Tortorella correct as the 2011-12 Rangers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 1997. That success was followed up last season with a trip to the conference semifinals in which the shorthanded Rangers (no Staal or Ryan Clowe) were knocked out by a talented Bruins squad.

Now that I’ve painted that rosy picture of Tortorella, I’ll cut him down a bit.

Despite the change in culture and all the success, Tortorella’s constant line changes and reliance on top players to the point in which they were burnt out was beyond maddening. And don’t get me started on the Rangers power play, which was beyond pathetic under a coach who was supposed to be a guru with the man advantage. How can a team with Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik and Brad Richards not have a successful power play?

I do feel Torts got a bad rap for the shot-blocking mentality the team had. Right away, he recognized the team didn’t have a wealth of goal scorers, so he felt the only way the Rangers could win was to pack the defense in, rely on his all-world goaltender to steal games and hope the forwards generated enough of a forecheck to produce timely offense. And it worked.

That was until Rick Nash was brought in last season. Tortorella’s stubbornness got the best of him. Yes, his shot-blocking ways led to a conference finals appearance, but when you bring in a Rick Nash, you have to open up the offense and his refusal to modify his game plan to fit a team that didn’t need to grind their way to victory ultimately led to his demise.

I was initially against the firing, but after hearing the reports about what a nightmare it was for the players last season, I don’t think Sather had much of a choice.

As far as Vigneault, I wasn’t a big fan at first. For all the talent and regular-season success he had in Vancouver he was only able to guide the Canucks out of the second round ONCE in his seven years as head coach, including first-round upset losses in each of the last two seasons. Sure, he got the Canucks to within one game of the Stanley Cup, but he lost a Game 7 in his own building with everything on the line.

Having said all that, he’s been a breath of fresh air for the Rangers so far as the positive energy surrounding the team in training camp is palpable. Unfortunately, the results on the ice didn’t reflect it during the preseason. The Rangers scored just nine goals in six games, while giving up 22. So not only are the Blueshirts still not scoring, now they can’t play defense.

Vigneault used most of the preseason to evaluate the talent on the Rangers instead of prepping for the season, which likely led to the uneven play. While I understand that mindset, I just have to question whether the evaluation process went on a little too long and the team is behind the eight ball as they’ve yet to play a game with the opening night line-up.

Yes, it was preseason, but Rick Nash and Brad Richards combining for zero points along with prized prospect Chris Kreider being re-assigned to the AHL after a very unimpressive showing is cause for concern.

So, going into the season, I’m a little uneasy.

Keefe: You mentioned the power play under Tortorella and how it’s unfathomable that a team with Nash, Gaborik and Richards could have a bad power play. But going back even farther than just last season, I don’t remember the last time the Rangers had even a mediocre power play. Actually it was the 2006-07 season when they finished with eighth-best power play in the league. But in the six seasons since then?

2012-13: 23rd
2011-12: 23
2010-11: 18th
2009-10: 13th
2008-09: 29th
2007-08: 23rd

It’s not the like the Rangers have had offensively-challenged players over the last six seasons and it’s not like they have lacked skill players or true scorers. And this year they certainly don’t aren’t lacking those either with Nash and Richards as the should-be focal points of the power play and Derek Stepan finally signing to guarantee a boost to the team’s offense and the man advantage.

On Tuesday, Vigneault told Mike Francesa that the team has been working on the power play of late and there were reports of Nash being put in front of the net to put a pure scorer with a big body in the slot to create traffic and pick up rebounds. I’m torn on this since theoretically it makes sense, but I would rather see him at the top of the dots ripping one-timers.

The power play has been the Rangers’ downfall and was again last year, especially in the postseason when they went 2-for-28 against the Capitals and 2-for-16 against the Bruins. With Ryan Callahan returning from offseason surgery and Carl Hagelin also due back in a couple of weeks from offseason surgery, the Rangers are currently constructed like a high school team with a dangerous first line, an above average second line and then a third and fourth line that aren’t exactly the definition of “depth.” The Rangers are going to have to rely on their scoring to come from the Richards-Stepan-Nash line and the power play with two of their better scoring options unlikely to be in the lineup soon.

Are you worried about the Rangers’ early-season depth?

DeLury: I’m beyond concerned about the scoring depth on this team. While I don’t think Nash has a 40-goal season in him this year, 35 is absolutely doable for him. After that, I’m not sure who else the Rangers can truly count on to supply consistent goal scoring.

Rangers fans have been fawning over Derick Brassard this offseason, but the fact remains that he’s never eclipsed 20 goals in any season during his career. And while it’s great that the Rangers got Stepan re-signed, he’s never been known as a goal scorer as he’s failed to score more than 21 goals in a season. Callahan and Hagelin’s absence from the lineup as they continue to recover from shoulder surgeries will obviously keep their goal totals down and even when they’re back in the line-up there’s no guarantee they’ll immediately return to form. See Gaborik’s return from shoulder surgery last season. Many predicted a breakout season for Kreider, but he’s down in the AHL, and even if he was on the Rangers he has a grand total of TWO career regular-season goals.

How’s this for a stat: After Nash, only two players on the current roster (Callahan and Richards) have reached 25 goals in a season. And as I mentioned above, it is very doubtful Callahan will reach that total this season. Ditto for Richards if he continues his downward spiral.

Sure, Vigneault is going to open up the offense this season, but if he doesn’t have the players who can execute his new schemes, does it really matter? As far as Vigneault’s power-play strategy, I did like what I saw in the preseason. There was a lot more puck and player movement. I also loved that there was always someone in front causing havoc. I definitely anticipate a more successful power play this season. Hell, it can’t get worse.

The biggest reason for the Rangers power-play failings under Tortorella has been the lack of a true power-play quarterback. The guy who has all the talent to do it is Michael Del Zotto, but I have lots of questions about what goes on between the ears with him.

Keefe: The idea of Henrik Lundqvist leaving via free agency is scarier than the idea of Robinson Cano doing the same. Lundqvist is the reason the Rangers have been relevant in the post-lockout era and the only reason they have gone as far as they have in the playoffs during that time.

Lundqvist and the Rangers have still been talking about an extension, which he says he will ask the talks to cease during the regular season, so they don’t become a distraction and he can focus 100 percent on playing. That means the Rangers have just hours left to get a deal done with No. 30 or it will be a long, long season of the unknown. (Editor’s note: Since the end of the email exchange it was reported that Henrik Lundqvist backed out of contract extension talks.)

And with the Francesa-Vigneault interview mentioned earlier, Vigneault told Francesa that he plans on playing Lundqvist for 60 games this season and then giving 22 to Martin Biron due to research done in the past about Stanley Cup winners and how many games their goalies played. The fewest number of games Lundqvist has played since entering the league was in his rookie season in 2005-06 when he played 53. Since then he has played 70, 72, 70, 73, 68, 62 and 43, but the 43 came in the shortened season and was 89.6 percent of the season, which is the equivalent of 73 games in a regular 82-game season.

What do you think will happen with Lundqvist’s extension? Please don’t tell me we will be looking at a revolving goalie door for a decade starting in 2014-15.

DeLury: Now that the regular season is virtually upon us and Lundqvist has declared that he’s not going to be a part of negotiations during the summer, it looks like if a deal is going to get done it won’t be until next summer. Which makes this season, probably one of the most important in franchise history.

I’ve never seen an athlete so driven by winning as Lundqvist. He has made no bones about it, he wants to win a Stanley Cup. Would winning it in New York be his ideal scenario? Of course, but if he isn’t enamored with the direction of the team under Vigneault and doesn’t feel the Rangers give him the best chance to achieve his goal, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him bolt for a team like the Penguins.

And while most so-called experts expect the Rangers to break the bank to keep “The King” on his throne in New York, I’m not so sure. It would be beyond the height of stupidity for the Rangers to offer a 31-year old goaltender an eight-year, $80 million contract in the salary cap era, epecially when the team still needs to re-sign Callahan and Dan Girardi next offseason as well.

I love the idea of limiting Lundqvist’s workload in an attempt to keep him fresh for the postseason. One of the knocks over the years of Hank has been his inability to carry the team on his shoulders to the promise land in the postseason. Hopefully this strategy will allow him to do that. Although, that workload could increase significantly if the Rangers fall behind in the standings early and Vigneault needs to lean on the All-Star goaltender down the stretch.

Keefe: In February 2012, I would have traded anything for Rick Nash and that anything included Chris Kreider. At the time Kreider was a 20-year-old college hockey player and 2009 first-round pick of the Rangers. The debate favored keeping Kreider over trading him for a player, who if Kreider lived up to his potential would still never match in talent, ability or skill. Ultimately the Rangers decided not to trade for Nash and ended up needing seven games to get by the Senators and Capitals before falling to the Devils in six games in the conference finals.

I argued that the Rangers can’t keep wasting years of Henrik Lundqvist’s prime by not balancing the team with offense. How many more documentaries and shows can be squeezed out of the 1993-94 season? Isn’t it time the Rangers start to make new memories and stop reliving ones from two decades ago?

Kreider was called up for the postseason and scored five goals in 18 games. But last year he became a frequent traveler between Hartford and New York, playing only 23 games for the Rangers and scoring just two goals and adding one assist. He played in eight of the Rangers’ 12 playoff games and had a goal and an assist.

Earlier this preseason, Kreider was playing with Nash and Richards and looking like he might be part of the Rangers’ top line and given a chance to finally prove his first-round worth. Instead he had a poor camp and was sent to Hartford on Sunday to start the season.

Kreider isn’t that young anymore when it comes to a former first-round pick (though he’s not old by any stretch). He’s 22 now and it’s been over four years since he was drafted and he has 23 regular-season games under his belt. To put that in perspective, out of the 29 others players taken in the first round with Kreider in 2009, 25 of them have played more NHL games than him.

What are we to make of Kreider?

DeLury: Last season, Tortorella caught a huge amount of flak for his handling of Chris Kreider. His constant bouncing from the Rangers and Hartford was said to be ruining the kid’s confidence. But I think this preseason’s underwhelming performance from the Rangers No. 1 prospect leading to his assignment to the Wolf Pack almost vindicates Tortorella’s hesitancy to use Kreider in a bigger role.

Kreider has first-line talent, which is why you saw Vigneault put him on a line with Nash and Richards in the preseason, but what the new Rangers head coach found out very quickly is that Kreider might not have the NHL IQ to go along with that talent.

A ton of minutes in every situation in the AHL will be much better for his development than 15 minutes of even strength action in the NHL. I have all the confidence in the world that he will be recalled at some point this season and will succeed at the NHL level. He’s just too talented not to.

Keefe: So here we go with 82 games between now and April 12. It will be a tough stretch out of the gate for the Rangers with nine games on the road to start the season because of the third and final year of MSG renovations.

I’m not as concerned with the early-season schedule as I am with the scoring depth and apparent lack of secondary scoring options, which has pretty much been my biggest concern with the team over the last six years. I’m also obviously concerned about Lundqvist’s contract situation even if that might not get taken care of until the end of the year and by then Lundqvist might decide he wants to play for a team that can score a goal in a playoff game.

What are you most excited about this Rangers team other than the season starting and what worries you about this team?

DeLury: I’m most excited about a fresh start for the Rangers. Despite all the doom and gloom I’ve been spewing, there is a sense of camaraderie that is very similar to the 2011-12 club that was one of the closest Rangers teams I’ve rooted for.

While most might see the nine-game road trip to start the season as a negative, I think it’ll be a huge bonding experience that fosters a ton of chemistry with the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have one of the league’s best goal scorers in Nash and when everything breaks down it’s always nice to turn to the greatest goaltender on the planet.

I’m most worried about the lack of team toughness. I watched the Rangers get pushed around all last season with zero push back. Both Ryan McDonagh and Rick Nash got run last season without a response which is absolutely unacceptable. When the Rangers were successful under Tortorella they displayed toughness and grit. When an opposing team faced the Blueshirts they were prepared to fight for every inch of the ice. Torts’ crew wasn’t the most talented team, but would outwork their opponent and were always there for each other. For some reason the “jam” as Torts liked to call it disappeared last season.

When the Rangers parted ways with heart and soul guys like Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Brandon Prust, Ruslan Fedotenko and John Mitchell after the 2011-12 season, I think management miscalculated how integral those guys were to the success of the team. And up until this point, those players have yet to be replaced.

Blogs • Yankees

Oct 2, 2013

State of the Yankees

Brian Cashman gave the State of the Yankees a month earlier than usual because for the second time since 1993 the Yankees didn’t reach the postseason.

It’s the third day without baseball. Only 180 to go. And the worst part about the 180 days between today and Opening Day 2014 isn’t that there isn’t a real baseball game that counts that I care about, it’s the endless cycle of nonsense that begins because there aren’t any real games to talk about. What nonsense? This type of nonsense:

Will the Yankees go over the $189 million threshold? Do they need to in order to sign Robinson Cano? How much will they sign him for? What if Cano signs elsewhere? Who will become the face of the franchise when Derek Jeter retires? Will Derek Jeter ever be Derek Jeter again? Will he play the full season in 2014? How many more years will he play for? What happens with him after 2014? If Cano is gone, where will they get their power from? Will they re-sign Curtis Granderson? Will they re-sign Mark Reynolds? Is CC Sabathia going to be CC Sabathia in 2014? Who will fill out the rotation after CC and Ivan Nova? Will they re-sign Hiroki Kuroda? Is Phil Hughes really , truly, finally gone? And Joba too? Will Michael Pineda be given a rotation spot or will he have to earn one?

And let’s not forget about the highest-paid player in baseball history, who wakes up each morning to attend an appeal hearing for his 211-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use. But that nonsense will never end because whether A-Rod’s suspension is upheld or vetoed or shortened, there will be a story to follow the story and every day will continue to be a circus led by the New York Daily News until the last game A-Rod ever plays.

Do you know how to avoid having the nonsense start on Oct. 1? Make the playoffs, that’s how. But the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs for the second time since 1993 and so the nonsense schedule got pushed up to the beginning of October instead of the beginning of November as did Brian Cashman’s annual State of the Yankees. Cashman gave his end-of-the-year press conference on Tuesday and addressed just about everything there is to address when the Yankees win just 85 games.

On the season as a whole.

“It was a tough one. We didn’t get to where we wanted to be. Obviously it was a struggle all year; a lot of disappointment whether it’s injuries, reoccurring injuries, underperformance, unexpected poor performance. We didn’t get where we needed to be and there were a lot of reasons for it. We obviously fought to the end. I appreciated the effort that our guys provided on a daily basis. Everybody that was healthy or even the guys that weren’t healthy that tried to get healthy and even those who failed in their efforts to return or their returns were brief. There was always effort. For that, I never saw that being an issue. We weren’t good enough, period. We are where we belong, which is on the outside looking in.”

After saying, “It was a tough one. We didn’t get to where we wanted to be,” I wish Cashman would have just read his part about “injuries, reoccurring injuries, underperformance and unexpected poor performances” in list form like this:

Injuries: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nunez, Brett Gardner, Jayson Nix Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain (and also Corban Joseph, Luis Cruz and Zoilo Almonte)

Reoccuring injuries: Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira

Underperformance: Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis

Unexpected poor performance: CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Hiroki Kuroda’s last eight starts and everything about the catchers

Why sugarcoat the 2013 season and give a paragraph answer when a simple list of names would do?

On A-Rod and his appeal.

“I operate on the assumption that I have him until they tell me otherwise. I’m not really in a position to talk about the Alex stuff. We’re not a party to it. I know from the media reports it was supposed to start yesterday and for a while there, until I looked on Twitter and saw certain things about people coming and going I wasn’t even sure if it had started or not. Because that’s how out of the loop I am on it. There’s not much to say on it. At this stage I’m not a participant in any way.”

If you don’t think Brian Cashman has been searching the backyard of his Darien home for four-leaf clovers or sleeping with a necklace of rabbit’s feet around his neck and pulling out every possible stop to hope for his wish of A-Rod suspensions coming true, so the team doesn’t have to pay him, then you’re lost.

I like Cashman’s whole “I know from media reports it was supposed to start yesterday” and his “I wasn’t even sure if it had started or not” thing like he hasn’t been following it the way I would follow weather reports hoping for a snow day from elementary school through high school. And even if he was telling the truth here about not knowing the details of the appeal, then he’s saying he doesn’t care to know about the situation of his highest-paid player facing a 211-game suspension. No one’s saying you are participating, Cash, but you might want to be in the loop on it a little bit. It only greatly impacts every decision you make this offseason. No big deal.

On staying under the $189 million threshold.

“It’s certainly a goal. It’s not a mandate. It’s a goal that we have and if it’s possible, there’s a lot of benefits to staying under that, but it’s not a mandate if it’s at the expense of a championship. It just depends on what the opportunities are before us, and the costs associated with it and if the feelings are if we don’t do something it will prevent us from taking a run, then I think his commentary that he’s already made at the owners’ meetings as well as spring training is that it’s a goal, not a mandate, Every option, every opportunity that comes my way whether by trade or free agency, I will always present to my owner and team president for evaluation. We will provide recommendations, they will provide their thoughts on what we should do and the final call on whatever is going to be done. So it’s a goal, not a mandate.”

“It’s certainly a goal. It’s not a mandate,” to me sounds like, “Do you remember what happened the last time we missed the postseason?” And the answer to that is Mark Teixeira got $180 million, CC Sabathia got $161 million and A.J. Burnett got $82.5 million. The only problem with that is that this free-agent class isn’t as good as the one from five years ago. The best free-agent class since the post-2008 class isn’t until next year, but by then it might not be as strong with teams extending players over the next year.

On re-signing Robinson Cano.

“We’d love to have Robbie back. There’s not much more for me to say about that, but our intention is to have him back, if we can. He’ll receive without question, or has received, a significant offer to stay, so he’ll have something legitimately to ponder. We’ll have to again, play that one out as well, see where it takes us. He’s been a great Yankee. I think if he stays he’ll have a legitimate chance to experience what you just saw, for instance, for Mariano. Maybe he has the chance to be the first Dominican-born player in Monument Park. A home-grown Yankee. But at the same time. It’s a business.”

So far Cano has reportedly receivers offers of eight years, $138 million and six years, $144 million, neither of which the Yankees could have possibly thought he would sign. And then a report comes out that Cano is looking for $305 million, which was reported by Buster Olney and not The Onion.

Cano isn’t going to get $305 million, but he’s probably going to get $200 million and even that’s ridiculous when you consider that Dustin Pedroia signed an eight-year, $110 million extension and is 10 months younger than Cano.

I like Cashman using his answer to include a sales pitch to Cano about being the first Dominican-born player in Monument Park and being a home-grown Yankee as if a player reportedly looking for $305 million cares about his Number 24 going beyond the center-field wall. It seems like Cano is going wherever the biggest offer comes from and if it’s not the Yankees, the seats between the bases (the moat seats) are going to look a lot emptier than they have in any of the first five seasons of the new Stadium.

On the lack of home runs and power this season.

“It was definitely significantly affected by injuries. We knew were going to lose Alex, we signed Youkilis to replace Alex to give us coverage while Alex came back, then Youkilis went down, Teixeira unexpectedly went down, Granderson unexpectedly went down twice; that’s a lot of home runs to be losing from your lineup. And no matter how many waiver claims or trades we could come up with, it was all just trying to cushion the blow. It’s not easy to find power out there, especially at that time of year. Then Hafner obviously went down. Injuries took a significant portion of our power out.”

You mean the Makeshift Yankees couldn’t provide the missing power from the New York Yankees? I wonder if all the genius fans from the 2012 season who complained about the Yankees hitting too many home runs and relying too much on home runs rather than stringing together singles and playing small ball enjoy not watching the Yankees play in October?

On if the Yankees will sign power hitters for 2014.

“Players I like to gravitate to, clearly, are on base percentage. I was taught by Gene Michael, as the guys who take – they’re are selective at the plate and can beat you with their bat.The long ball. I love the big long ball. Stick always believed in the old Earl Weaver way. That’s what I was taught and raised in. so the players I typically gravitate to are those type of guys. And it was certainly hard to find those type of guys on the run, as the roster choices, as we went from March on, trying to cushion blows, it’s not easy to find power guys, as much as maybe as in years past, certainly it wasn’t easy for us to plug the holes. I wasn’t able to do that. I failed in my efforts to get that done. Power is a big piece of this franchise, and something I believe in.”

I’m glad Cashman isn’t part of the Too Many Home Runs Club. But it’s telling when he says “It’s not easy to find power guys, as much as maybe in years past,” which clearly shows how the landscape of valuing players has changed and there are less and less potential big-name free agents hitting the market or available late in spring. It’s hard to fault him for Mark Teixeira injuring his wrist during the World Baseball Classic (and generally being Mark Teixeira) or for Curtis Granderson getting hit by two pitches that ruined his season. But was Travis Hafner as a power option really going to be relied on for a full season after only playing more than 94 games once since 2007? And was Kevin Youkilis, who missed 40 games in 2012, 42 games in 2011 and 60 games in 2010 (and missing 134 games this year) suddenly going to stop getting hurt like an aging player as he aged?

On CC Sabathia.

“Based on the year he just had velocity-wise, if that didn’t come back this year, I don’t know why it would start to come back next year. So I’m going to assume he’s going to be pitching at the current velocity that he kind of settled into this year in the second half. Obviously the home run ball was a big problem for him this year; that historically I know can be fluky. That’s something that can be and we certainly hope is an aberration. His strikeouts per 9, his walks per 9 are right where he was in ‘09 and 2010. Despite the lack of velocity, that shows his pitchability whether it’s the high-octane 97 versus what he’s sitting at now, the pitchability is still there. He had the ability to swing and miss and command the strike zone and pound it. So avoiding the home run ball or eliminating that should take care of all his issues.”

Home runs are fluky like batting average is about being lucky, right? Derek Jeter has just been the luckiest guy in the league since 1996 and CC Sabathia was the unluckiest pitcher in the league this year. Or Sabathia was a guy, who to his own admission, said this about his problems: “It’s me being stubborn, too, and not wanting to change and thinking that I’ve got stuff figured out.”

I’m not sure why Sabathia’s velocity is talked about as much as it is. No, he isn’t throwing 96-97 anymore, but he hasn’t thrown that hard consistently in a while, not just in 2013. He was still in the mid-90s with his fastball and with his repertoire of pitches, 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA is unacceptable. There are plenty of lefties around the league who do a lot more (and did a lot more this season) with a lot less than Sabathia and would probably trade a year of their careers to be able to obtain the velocity that Sabathia does still have.

And whether home runs are fluky or not, giving up 28 of them (and leading the league in earned runs) as he did as the supposed “ace” of the staff making $23 million per year isn’t something worthy of excuses.

On whether or not the bench needs to be more experienced for 2014.

“I don’t know if it’s more experienced; I just want quality ones. You would love to have as much young as you could possibly have, if it’s good. If it’s not, that’s what you’ve seen us do in the past, the (Eric) Chavezes and things of that nature. If you have a right-handed hitting power third baseman, you’d love to have an alternative left-handed hitting option so you pick and choose when you want to rest a player like an Alex. You can run the alternative out there more for matchup purposes and stuff like that. Typically the bench is a veteran situation because younger players aren’t used to sitting around and knowing what they need to do to be prepared. That’s always an adjustment and a growth period that takes place over time, with playing. Bottom line is the bench typically is experienced. You’d want to have a good quality strong bench without a doubt. That’s always been an effort.”

Eric Chavez signed with the Diamondbacks for $3 million.

Raul Ibanez signed with the Mariners for $2.75 million.

Cashman gave $12 million to Youkilis, $2 million to Hafner and $11.5 million this season and $2.4 million next season in the trade for Vernon Wells once Granderson went down. Give me a minute while I collect myself and get some tissues to wipe away these tears.

On Michael Pineda.

“We shut him down as a healthy player in the end. He’ll compete for a job in spring training. He’s got options and I don’t think it’s healthy for anybody to guarantee anything so I’m not going to sit here just because he’s Michael Pineda and we have high hopes to say hey we can pencil him into our rotation. He’s got to obviously show that he can stay healthy and that he’s effective while he’s pitching. We certainly hope that’s going to be the case, but I’m not going to sit here and guarantee anything on that either. But it certainly would go a long way towards solving some problems, if that was the case.”

With Pineda having thrown zero pitches for the Yankees over the last two seasons and with Jesus Montero hitting .252/.293/.327 for the Mariners over the last two seasons and then being suspended 50 games for performance-enhancing drugs, I would say that trade has been a wash so far.

But when I think back to Pineda’s 2011 season and his 8-6, 3.03 first half that got him on the All-Star team as a rookie and his 9.1 K/9 and his 2.9 BB/9, it’s hard to think of him as a front-end starter for the Yankees in 2014.

On the Yankees’ struggles with the farm system and draft.

“In terms of changes, we’re always looking at that kind of stuff, and if there are any changes to be made, well make them. We have struggled out of the draft here the last number of years; some of it signability, whether it was a Gerrit Cole, some of it was injuries, like last year’s No. 1 pick Ty Hensley having double hip surgery. Some of our picks haven’t panned out. I think this last year we did really well, but in fairness, you always feel that when you make the selections, so were evaluating that as well. … We haven’t had as fruitful results from the draft here recently as we had hoped and anticipated.”

Hey, remember the time the Yankees draft Gerrit Cole with the 28th pick in the 2010 draft and then his family told the Yankees they didn’t have a chance? Cole’s dad said he told the Yankees, “We said, ‘We appreciate the opportunity, but if we were to entertain a discussion of finances, it would give you the impression you had a shot.’”And remember when Cole was then drafted by the Pirates with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft and made his MLB debut in 2013 going 10-7 with a 3.22 ERA while the Yankees’ highly-touted first-round pick from 2004 named Phil Hughes was losing 13 games for an 85-win team? I’m going to need a minute to collect myself again.

On Derek Jeter.

“I certainly hope to get Derek back to the Derek that we’re all used to. He’s one of those guys that did everything in his power to fight through something that turned out to be pretty significant. And so now he’ll have some time to back off, get some rest, some more flexibility back, and get every aspect of that ankle in line, as far as the kinetic chain. So it’ll put him in position to have the typical training regimen he’s used to, as he prepares for the season. He’ll be able to do that. The expectation is that when that happens, and does occur, he can put significant distance between what we saw and all lived through with him, the last year, where obviously it was something that was really limiting him to being the player he’s capable of being again.”

I’m not going to comment on Derek Jeter or Cashman’s answer because Derek Jeter is going to return to being Derek Jeter again in 2014 and I won’t believe otherwise. Instead I will just refer to Eli from The Girl Next Door and his answer to being a little young to skip film school: “Shut the eff up! Next question.”

On the upcoming offseason.

“We’ve got a lot of problems that we need to attack. Starting rotation is an area that is one we need to look at. There are questions on the left side of the infield; three of the four spots of the infield, actually, because of the free agency of Cano. We’ll see. Those obviously stand out. … There are a lot of areas to focus on this winter more than previous winters.” about 17 hours ago

180 days to go. Let the nonsense begin.

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Oct 1, 2013

Giants-Chiefs Week 4 Thoughts: A 12-Game Season

The Giants were embarrassed again and after an 0-4 start to their season they need to put the first quarter of the season behind them and focus on the remaining 12 games.

I didn’t think things could get worse after the six-turnover Opening Night performance. I was wrong. And I didn’t think they could get worse than losing by 18 despite being down 10-9 at halftime. I was wrong again. And then I didn’t think things could get worse than losing 38-0 and producing 150 yards of total offense. I was wrong about that too. Things have gotten progressively worse since the “Disaster in Dallas” and I’m not sure what’s left after getting embarrassed and run out of Kansas City by Alex Smith, Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Are the Eagles planning a “Miracle at the Meadowlands Part II” for this Sunday? If so, I wish someone would tell me now, so I can find something else to do like watch Knocked Up or Funny People or Five-Year Engagement.

The same day the Yankees season officially ended after 182 days and 162 games, the Giants season ended after 21 days and four games. Sure, the Giants are technically still alive in a division where the Cowboys of all teams are in first place at 2-2. And if there’s any team incapable of holding a division lead in the NFL, it’s the Cowboys.

But why would anyone think the Giants are going to suddenly figure it out? And by “it” I mean everything as in every facet of the game. Because right now there isn’t one thing the Giants are doing well. Well, unless we’re talking about throwing interceptions, losing fumbles, taking untimely and game-changing penalties and missing field goals because they are doing all of those things better than any team in the league.

Going to Kansas City in Week 4 with the Chiefs flying as high as they have in forever and the Giants at an all-time low in the Tom Coughlin era and maybe the lowest of low in franchise history was a recipe for disaster. It was a game the Giants were set up to lose after what had happened in the first three weeks for them and for the Chiefs. But even as 5-point underdogs, the Giants didn’t show up and were worked over the same way they were the previous two weeks and everything Carl Banks said about the team to Joe Benigno and Evan Roberts on WFAN last week held true again.

I’m not going to talk negatively about Tom Coughlin, question his decision making or call into question his job status. It’s not for fear of having Justin Tuck punch me in the face, but rather because I don’t think this debacle is because of Coughlin, even if he is the man in charge. Coughlin’s not the one who has thrown nine interceptions in four games and he’s not on the offensive line failing to hold up his man and he’s not on the defensive line failing to get to the quarterback. He’s the man on the sidelines, who is watching his highly-talented team underachieve and not play to their abilities and live up to their expectations. But Coughlin does get to call the shots during the game and he made a bad call on Sunday that changed the game.

In the third quarter with the Giants facing a third-and-17 at the Giants’ 14, Eli Manning hit Victor Cruz for 17 yards. A 17-yard pass in a third-and-17 situation. What’s that mean? First down, Giants. Right? Wrong. Andy Reid, whose history of poor challenges, poor use of the clock and bad in-game management helped end his tenure in Philadelphia, challenged the ruling on the field of a first down and the spot of the ball, a call that’s rarely and I mean RARELY ever overturned. But because it’s New York Giants football and because things are going as bad for the 2013 Giants as they did for Mischa Barton’s acting career after she left and ruined The O.C., Reid won the challenge and it became a fourth-and-1 for the Giants on their own 30.

Tom Coughlin had a decision to make: Go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Giants’ 30 and risk turning the ball over on downs in a 10-7 game or punt it away and rely on the defense to make another stop. He went with his second choice and Steve Weatherford, who has been part of the problem and not part of the solution like just about everyone on the team this season, punted 59 yards to Dexter McCluster and McCluster “DeSean Jackson’d” the punt 89 yards for a touchdown and a 17-7 lead. Game over.

Cruz didn’t agree with Coughlin’s decision by saying, “I thought we should have gone for it on that fourth down. It’s coach’s call at the end of the day. … We had the momentum. I felt it was a yard, not even a yard, half a yard, we’ve got to take a risk at some point and make something happen.” And I agree with Cruz. The Giants had to make something happen and they went with the safe play even if it was the supposed right play given their field position, but at 0-3 and on the road and a quarter away from being 0-4, the Giants had to do something to change the momentum of that game and trying to gain not even a full yard for a first down would have done that instead. Instead they changed the momentum for the Chiefs.

The 0-4 start is alarming because it’s 0-4, but it’s heightened because of how last season ended and the bad taste it left in everyone’s mouths. Usually we’re used to see a stretch like this in the second part of the season or near the end of the season as the Giants erase their division titles hopes and playoff chances. Never before during the Tom Coughlin era have we seen something like this where the patented second-half collapse takes place in the first half or the first four weeks.

An 0-4 start looks a lot worse than a 6-2 team becoming 6-6, which is more Giants-like. But it leaves open the thought that maybe the Giants are getting their collapse out of the way now. No, that doesn’t mean I think the Giants are going to go 12-0 and run the table like Antrel Rolle said he “believes” the Giants can. But they don’t need to this season in this division where a winless record only has them two games out with 75 percent of the season left. And while Rolle’s prediction of the Giants winning out was just a little bold, he did redeem himself by saying, “This is just a new beginning, a 12-game season for us.”

The 12-game season begins with two games in the next 10 days. It’s hard to believe in the Giants, but that’s when they are at their best.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 27, 2013

Giants-Chiefs Has Much Different Meaning Than Last Meeting

The Giants face a must-win game in Kansas City against old rival Andy Reid and the Chiefs and that calls for an email exchange with Joel Thorman of Arrowhead Pride.

Must-win game. I have said it 4,738 times this week and will probably say it that many more times between now and Sunday. The Yankees season is over (and really has been since the beginning of August), but will officially end on Sunday in Houston and there’s a chance the Giants season could end on the same day, just four games in and what will be two days before October.

Prior to Opening Night against the Cowboys I hadn’t been this exciting about a Giants team since … well, Opening Night against the Cowboys last year. Now the Giants are 0-3 and have lost all three games in embarrassing fashion and are a loss to Andy Reid, Alex Smith and the Chiefs on Sunday from playing three months of football for nothing.

With the Giants playing the Chiefs for the first time in four years and trying to save their season against an old foe in Reid, I did an email exchange with Joel Thorman of Arrowhead Pride to talk about the Chiefs’ 3-0 start, the perception of Andy Reid in Kansas City and whether or not Chiefs fans wanted Alex Smith as their quarterback.

Keefe: The last time the Giants and Chiefs met was Week 4 in 2009. The Giants won that game (a game I barely remember) 27-16 to open the season 4-0. The following week they beat the Raiders 44-7 to open the season with five straight wins, but after that it was all downhill. The Giants went 3-8 the rest of the way for one of their patented second-half collapses and finished the year being outscored 85-16 by the Panthers and Vikings in Weeks 16 and 17 respectively.

That Giants win gave the Chiefs their fourth straight loss to the open the season. The following week the Chiefs would lose to the Cowboys and were 0-5. They wouldn’t get much better from there, finishing the season 4-12 with two five-game losing streaks in the same season.

This year things are different. Very different. The Giants are 0-3 and pretty much facing postseason elimination if they can’t win on Sunday in Kansas City (or unless they go on a 10-2 run the rest of the way). The Chiefs are 3-0, having already beat the Cowboys and Eagles to help out the Giants, and are tied atop the NFC West with the Super Bowl-favorite Broncos.

What’s it like to be 3-0 and playing so well to open the season because I don’t remember?

Thorman: 3-0 is great.Things are going well and everyone just seems happy, the players, coaches and fans. I’m enjoying it so far and the reason for that is because it was so unexpected. Nobody expected the Chiefs to start 3-0. The debate in Kansas City was whether they’d win seven or nine games. No one expected the Chiefs to have a top three defense after three weeks. No one expected the lack of turnovers so far. We just didn’t see it coming. The expectations coming in were for the team to be competitive in December. Playoffs? Maybe if things went great. It reminds me of the 2010 Chiefs, who started 3-0. There were expectations to be competitive, but not make the playoffs.

Keefe: No head coach in the league knows the Giants or the NFC East like Andy Reid does. Sure the Giants have had their fair share of success against him over the years, but it was pretty even with a usual series split with the Eagles. So far Reid has put his knowledge of the division to good use with wins over the Cowboys and Eagles in back-to-back weeks, including getting a win at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia in a sort of homecoming game

Everyone knew that Reid would be highly sought after on the open market once the Eagles decided to let him go after last season and it took about 15 minutes to get a new job with the Chiefs. I’m guessing you’re an Andy Reid fan now, but were you a fan of the decision to hire Reid at first? What do you think he will do to prepare his new team to face one of his familiar opponents?

Thorman: Yes, I was a fan of the move. For where the Chiefs were in their history and where they were coming from, Andy Reid was a perfect fit. The Chiefs last two coaches were Todd Haley, who had no experience as a head coach, and Romeo Crennel, who wasn’t very good. Chiefs owner Clark Hunt couldn’t afford to whiff on another coach. His franchise was in dire straits. He had to get it right. So he went from the most accomplished coach on the market. It’s a big change from the last two coaches the Chiefs have had and I think that’s exactly what was needed.

Reid brings respectability, stability and confidence. The Chiefs DO have talent. Outside of quarterback, that wasn’t the question. Reid’s arrival has brought out the best in anyone. Reid didn’t have anything special for the Cowboys two weeks ago and he knew them well so I don’t expect him to do anything too unique for New York. Just don’t turn it over, get after Eli Manning and hope for a win. That’ll be the formula in every game.

Keefe: I have never been an Alex Smith fan. Not when he was drafted, not when he was benched, not when he was benched again, not when several head coaches lost their jobs because he couldn’t perform, not when Jim Harbaugh figured out how to have him manage games, not when he reached the NFC Championship Game against the Giants and not when he was finally benched for good for Colin Kaepernick. I didn’t understand why the Chiefs decided to trade for him or why Reid was so adamant about wanting him as his quarterback. But so far everything has worked out in Smith’s favor, Reid’s favor and the Chiefs fans’ favor.

The Chiefs needed a change and needed a quarterback for the future when it was evident that Matt Cassel wasn’t going to be that guy. Was Smith the guy you wanted and if not, who?

Thorman: Alex Smith was the best option if you were looking for a quarterback last year. The Chiefs had the No. 1 pick so they could’ve taken anyone. It just wasn’t one of those years. So for where the Chiefs were, yes, I think Alex Smith was the option. It made me feel a little better knowing Andy Reid has liked Alex for a number of years. But, yeah, I see your concerns and I can’t really dismiss them.

Reid hasn’t changed his offense a whole lot so Alex Smith is passing the ball a lot, which isn’t what he did in San Francisco. I think Alex has grown a lot, which will help this relationship. I think Andy is also a smart dude who generally maximizes his quarterback’s ability. So from that standpoint I think Andy will get the absolute most out of Alex just like Harbaugh did. The real question, in my opinion, is whether Alex gets a new deal in Kansas City. He has this year and one more year on his contract. That will be the real sign of how committed they are.

Keefe: And what about Matt Cassel (who was the most fortunate quarterback to ever get rich until Matt Flynn came along)? What were your feelings when the Chiefs traded for Cassel after the 2008 season?

Thorman: I was very excited about Matt Cassel when the Chiefs traded for him. In fact, the failures of Cassel probably contributed to my pessimism about the Alex Smith trade. The Chiefs NEVER went after young quarterbacks and had it work out so this was exciting. Obviously it didn’t work out but if you’re asking how I felt back then … yeah, I was excited about it and thought it would work out. Remember now, at the time the Cassel trade was made, he was thought of so highly that reporters found it unbelievable that the Chiefs gave up “only'” a second round pick for him. In fact, one national reporter said the NFL should investigate the trade. So I wasn’t the only one who thought it was a good deal back then. Notice that I mentioned Alex’s contract above. I think the biggest mistake with Cassel was not the trade — can’t knock you for trading for a young quarterback — but the crippling contract that kept him in KC.

Keefe: This game on Sunday means everything to the Giants. It’s the difference between starting to climb out of the 0-3 hole and come back in a division that is still up for grabs or everyone packing it in for the season and Tom Coughlin’s job being called into question once again. For the Chiefs, sure it would be nice to win and be 4-0 and keep pace with the Broncos and I’m sure Reid wants to run the table on the NFC East, but it’s not like the Chiefs have to win.

With everyone pushing the Giants away and giving them no chance to figure out what has gone wrong over their last 11 games and how they could have lost eight of those games after being 6-2 last year and looking at a division title and a chance to defend their Super Bowl win, it puts the Giants in the perfect place. This team and franchise has always crumbled under pressure and failed to live up the hype or perform as a favorite. It’s when the odds are stacked against them and they can fly under the radar is when they start to play to their abilities.

Now this could also be me fresh off the Yankees being eliminated from reaching the postseason for just the second time since 1993 pretending that things will turn around for the Giants and my football season won’t be ruined the way my baseball season just was. Or it could be for real and the New York Football Giants I was excited about three Sundays ago before the season started could show up for the first time this season. Man, do I wish it was Week 4 four years ago.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Thorman: I expect the Giants to play much better, but ultimately I’m picking the Chiefs. I don’t see this as a blowout. I have it as a four-point game. Ultimately Kansas City’s pass rush is going to be too much for Eli Manning. Whether it’s the sacks that get him or the interceptions that come after he’s hurried, the Chiefs can and will capitalize on the Giants mistakes. Kansas City won’t make many mistakes on their own which means they won’t be taking a lot of shots either. That’s why I see this being a close affair. The thinking here in Kansas City is that the Giants can’t possibly be that bad. No one expects a crappy Giants team to come to Arrowhead. 23-19 in favor of the Chiefs.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 26, 2013

NFL Week 4 Picks

The Giants face a must-win game in Kansas City and it’s basically a must-win week for my picks (whatever that means).

I’m used to must-win games right now after spending the last few weeks watching the Yankees endure them. But on Wednesday night at the Stadium (my last Yankees game of the year), I watched the Yankees go down in their last meaningful game of the season. It took the Yankees 158 games and 97.5 percent of the season for the season to finally end, which was way longer than anyone though it would last with the names they used to replace their stars. As for the New York Football Giants, it might only take four games and 25 percent of the season for their season to end.

Three weeks ago I would have chalked up a visit to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, Alex Smith and the Chiefs as a predicted win for the Giants, but three weeks ago I also didn’t see the “Disaster in Dallas” coming or the blowout from the Broncos or whatever the eff that was in Carolina last Sunday. Those who try to predict wins and losses with NFL schedules are always reminded that it doesn’t matter who you play, it only matters when you play them and right now the Giants in their current state couldn’t be facing a worse matchup than on the road in Kansas City against the Chiefs in their current state.

The Chiefs are 3-0 under Reid, who knows the Giants and how to beat them better than any other coach in the NFL. They are coming off 10 days rest following their Week 3 win on Sept. 19 over Reid’s former team in his former city. Everything about this game says the Giants will lose to the Chiefs the way the Jaguars, Cowboys and Eagles already have. But in this NFL with these Giants, nothing goes according to plan and this game likely won’t either.

The Giants are at their best when they have been left for dead and the entire football world has moved on from considering them a playoff team or contender. Right now the football world has a reason to do that at 0-3 even if they trail the always-ready-to-collapse Cowboys by only two games in the division with the Eagles at 1-2 and Redskins at 0-3.

I don’t expect the Giants to go on the 13-0-type run that Antrel Rolle alluded to the possibility of on WFAN this week, but I also don’t expect them to roll over and become the 2012 Eagles. Once again I had to learn the lesson of having expectations with the Giants the hard way and that’s why in Week 4 against the Chiefs I don’t have any expectations. The Giants have two options: 1.) Win and save the season or 2.) Lose and spend the next 12 games and 13 weeks playing meaningless football.

As for the picks, well it looks like we are coming to a crossroads with those as well and we’re not in “must-win mode” for the picks yet (whatever must-win mode translate to in terms of making picks), but we’re almost there. I said in Week 2 that it would be a grind to chip away at the damage done in Week 1 and since “The Disaster” I have answered with back-to-back 7-8-1 weeks, which isn’t going to cut it. While the Giants try to save their season on Sunday, I will be trying to save mine as well.

Week 4 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

San Francisco -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
If this game had taken place in Week 1 or Week 2 it would have been interesting to see what the line would have been. But it’s Week 4 now and the 49ers are tied with the Rams at 1-2 and two games back of the Seahawks in the NFC West. I thought after the 49ers’ Super Bowl run last season and the Rams’ gradual improvement over the last year that we were getting away from the NFC West matchups being must-not-watch TV and picks disasters. But maybe we’re heading back to that time period, which I wouldn’t mind since I miss the NFC West being the worst division in football and the NFC East being the best.

MINNESOTA +3 over Pittsburgh
When I first saw this line, my jaw dropped. The Vikings are getting three points at home against the Steelers?!?! Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?! This is too good to be true! And it was. Because I forgot about the NFL’s annual London game, which happens to be this one. So no, the Vikings aren’t home and neither are the Steelers. If anything though I’m guessing it will feel more like a home-field advantage for the Steelers if their fans, who travel well in the U.S., travel as well outside the U.S.

Baltimore -3 over BUFFALO
This game is a lot harder to pick than it appears. It appears as the defending Super Bowl champions -3 against the Bills in Buffalo, but it’s much more complicated than that after what we’ve seen from both teams over the first three weeks. I’m just going to hope that the Ravens defense has gotten its act together and will present never-before-seen problems for E.J. Manuel.

Cincinnati -3.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns finally win a game with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback and suddenly their only 3.5-point underdogs against the Bengals? OK. Yes, I know the Bengals were in most of their games last year and in their two losses this year, but backing the Brian Hoyer era in its second week is a risky proposition.

Indianapolis -9.5 over JACKSONVILLE
This line could be -14 and I would still be on the Colts because we’re at the point right now where it’s going to be nearly impossible to pick the Jaguars. Last week, depending on where you got the line, the Seahawks were basically a 20-point favorite over the Jaguars and they covered that line with ease and I was willing to back the Seahawks as high as -35. I think the only way I wouldn’t pick against the Jaguars right now would be if they were playing the Giants. And unfortunately they’re not this season because the Giants could use a win.

Seattle -3 over HOUSTON
The Broncos are +300 to win the Super Bowl right now. The Seahawks are +450. I have no choice, but to ride this wave for as long as I can.

TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Arizona
Will the Buccaneers turn around their 0-3 season with a new quarterback in rookie Mike Glennon? Sure! Why not? In other words: Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Chicago +2.5 over DETROIT
Pretty even division rivals, who have both been handed early-season wins? I will go with the undefeated one and thank you for the 2.5 points, Vegas.

New York Giants +5 over KANSAS CITY
Save the season or end it. If it’s the latter, I will probably have to pick against the Giants for the rest of the season.

TENNESSEE -4 over New York Jets
Earlier in the season I was thinking I could use the “Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Jets fan is going to bet on this game…” line for this game, but now we have a 3-0 Titans team hosting a 2-1 Jets team and it’s like it’s 2008 again. I would actually enjoy a Kerry Collins-Brett Favre matchup over a Jake Locker-Geno Smith matchup … even in 2013.

SAN DIEGO +2 over Dallas
The Giants aren’t in as bad of a place as they should be at 0-3 because the Eagles and Redskins have both stumbled out of the gate and only the Cowboys have a winning record in the NFC East. What does that mean for the season? It means that the Giants are probably going to need a Cowboys collapse at some point to get into the playoff picture. What better time than now in San Diego to start the annual implosion?

OAKLAND +3.5 over Washington
When I go to pick Redskins games I envision RGIII running around the field, picking up first downs left and right and controlling the game. But really I need to envision the Redskins defense challenging the Giants defense for the belt as the worst defense in the league. I mean 98 points allowed in three weeks? If only the Giants hadn’t given up 115 in the first three weeks more people would be talking about the Redskins defense and less about what’s wrong, if anything, with RGIII. So far the Raiders nearly pulled of an upset in Indianapolis, beat the Jaguars and were dominated in Denver. The Raiders should have been 1-2 through their first three games and they are. The Redskins shouldn’t be 0-3 after their first three, but they are. Right now the Raiders are playing like the team everyone expected them to be and even a little better than expected while no one knows who the Redskins are or what they are going to be.

DENVER -11.5 over Philadelphia
Remember when Chip Kelly saved the Eagles and brought his Oregon spread offense to the NFL and it worked flawlessly against the Redskins? And remember when Chip Kelly managed the clock against the Chargers the way Grady Little managed a bullpen and cost his team a game and then when his team turned the ball over five times in Andy Reid’s Philadelphia homecoming? I do and I’m glad the last two weeks happened to the Eagles and their fans and the construction on the Chip Kelly statue in front of Lincoln Financial Field was halted while the team gave their fans a reminder and reality check as to who they are.

As for the Broncos, at some point the Broncos aren’t going to cover. If it’s this week, so be it. But I’m not going to be on the other side of another Broncos blowout.

ATLANTA -2.5 over New England
I will never forgive the Falcons for blowing a 17-0 lead and losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and costing me the two-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds I had along with the Ravens over the Patriots. But I need to put that devastating loss aside for Sunday Night Football this week and remember how good the Falcons are at home (nearly Saints-esque), the fact they are 1-2 and that the Patriots aren’t exactly the most convincing 3-0 team. A two-point win in Buffalo over a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, a three-point win at home against the Jets and a rookie quarterback making his second career start and a Week 3 win at home over the Buccaneers in the middle of a quarterback crisis are the reasons for not being overly convinced that the 2013 Patriots are going to be anything more than a team handed a playoff spot because they play in a weak division (Hey, Los Angeles Dodgers!).

NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Miami
I’m on the Dolphins bandwagon and I’m sitting in the front seat and making small talk with the driver of it. The Dolphins are responsible for three of my 17 correct picks through three weeks so I feel terrible turning my back on them for a week and going with the Saints, but until the Saints stop winning games by a touchdown at home, I don’t have a choice. With Sean Payton as head coach, the last time the Saints didn’t win a home game by at least seven points (including the playoffs) was also the last home game they lost with Sean Payton as head coach, which was a 23-13 loss to the Buccaneers on Jan. 2, 2011. So I’m sure the Dolphins will understand my decision.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 17-28-3