Keefe To The City

Oct 16, 2014

NFL Week 7 Picks

Two steps back, three steps forward, one step back. This picks season feels a lot like the Giants’ season once again.

I feel like the New York Giants once again: two steps back, three steps forward, one step back. After three straight weeks of .500 or better, Week 6 got the best of me thanks to a few decisions that left me open to be second-guessed as bad as Joe Girardi leaves himself open to be.

I made a lot of bad decisions in Week 6 and they all stemmed from me putting trust into clearly untrustworthy situations. Here are some things I trusted last week:

– I trusted Teddy Bridgewater making his second career start with an injured ankle that sidelined him 10 days earlier.

– I trusted Kyle Orton and the Bills against Tom “22-2 (now 23-2) against the Bills” Brady and the Patriots in a game with massive AFC East implications.

– I trusted the Bengals despite them saving the Patriots a week earlier and ruining all the Tom Brady trade rumors, which would have taken over Boston and their season.

– I trusted the one-win Buccaneers against the Ravens because of my hatred for the Ravens.

– I trusted the Falcons, who I said I would never trust again after they blew a 17-point lead in the 2012 NFC Championship Game and cost me a 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay.

– I trusted the Chargers over the Raiders even though I never take the Chargers to cover against the Raiders.

– I trusted the New York Football Giants in Philadelphia even though the game had a red flag hanging over it with the sudden expectations and hype being placed on the Giants and their new-and-improved offense.

I wish I could take all of those decisions back, but I can’t and I’m stuck with a 6-9 record from Week 6. But when Bill Belichick answered every question after Week 4 with “We’re on to Cincinnati” it worked out for the Patriots. So I’m not talking anymore about what happened in Week 6. I’m on to Week 7 and let’s hope me saying that is enough to not be sitting here next Thursday wondering why I made a decision like backing a quarterback who lost his job to Tim Tebow three years ago over a three-time Super Bowl champion.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK JETS +10 over New England Patriots
Yes, no more than 10 seconds ago I said I referenced backing a quarterback who once lost his job to Tim Tebow over a three-time Super Bowl champion and here I am backing a quarterback who lost his job two weeks ago to an unprepared and unmotivated Michael Vick over a three-time Super Bowl champion. Just typing that made me think, “What the eff am I doing?” but I have a weird feeling about this game even if that feeling will likely end up resulting in Jets-Chargers Part II.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 over Cincinnati
There are 64 starting quarterbacks and head coaches in the NFL. The Top 5 people I LEAST trust from those 64 in no specific order are Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis, Geno Smith, Jim Caldwell and Mike Smith. It’s not good when one team has both their coach and quarterback in that five-person mix.

Tennessee +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3.5 over Miami
Last week, I said:

I’m finally done with the Bears. So it would be appreciated if they would just get blown out at the Georgia Dome and not win and just remain out of my life.

So of course I picked the Falcons and of course the Bears won 27-13 to temporarily save their season and make me rescind my swearing off the Bears for the rest of the season. Here I am, one week after saying I was done picking them, here I am picking them. But that shouldn’t be too hard against a Dolphins team that had their heart ripped out and their 2014 season left on the field after giving up a touchdown with three seconds left against the Packers.

Cleveland -6 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars are 0-6, but their margin of losing has dropped over the last weeks from 31 to 27 to 19 to 8 and then to 2 against the Titans in Week 6. If this pattern keeps up, the Jaguars are either going to lose by 1, tie or beat the Browns this week. However, with the Browns 3-2 and their two losses by a combined five points, I don’t think this is going to be a trap game for Cleveland coming off an impressive and season-saving blowout win over the Steelers. Sorry, Jacksonville, no win this week, but soon. I promise.

Seattle -7.5 over ST. LOUIS
I would like to take this time to thank the Seahawks for their loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Sure, the loss improved the Cowboys to 5-1, extended their winning streak to five straight, gave them a two-game lead over the Giants and cost me a pick. But like Frank Underwood in House of Cards planting the seeds of an eventual long-term scheme well in advance, this Seahawks loss to the Cowboys was part of something much bigger down the road. Right now, the Cowboys are being called the best team in the league and there is so much hype surrounding them that it’s comparable to the attention they drew during the 2007 season. And like I have said, if the Giants didn’t exist then the Cowboys would be the worst team when playing with expectations. The Cowboys have those expectations now thanks to the Seahawks and it’s only a matter of time until the destruction starts because no Jerry Jones/Jason Garrett/Tony Romo team can be the best team in the NFL.

GREEN BAY -7 over Carolina
Aside from Week 1 when the Panthers played the Buccaneers, I have incorrectly picked every Panthers game, so to say I don’t have a feel for the Panthers would be an understatement. But since Aaron Rodgers told Green Bay to relax, the Packers are 3-0 and have scored 107 points after scoring 47 points in their first three games, so that’s makes me feel a little more comfortable about my pick for a Panthers game.

BALTIMORE -7 over Atlanta
I thought the theory about the Falcons being a home team and a home dome team like the Saints would hold up against the Bears, who couldn’t get out of their own way heading into Week 6, but that theory was undone when the Bears beat them by two touchdowns. Now I’m back to square one with the Falcons and back to the drawing board when it comes to figuring them out and I have nothing. I understand so little about the Falcons (other than that they are a bad team, which is all that really matters) that I’m picking the hated Ravens in a season in which I’m rooting even harder for them to lose than I normally do.

Minnesota +6 over BUFFALO
I said it was a mistake to back Teddy Bridgewater last week in just his second career start coming off an ankle injury, so why is it a good idea to back him this week in his third career start? Because the Bills are coming off their regular-season Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, which was a game that had the chance to shift the power in the AFC and give the Bills the upper hand in the division for the first time in the Brady-Belichick era. And the Bills were run out of their own building in that game, proving that they aren’t ready to the next step as a franchise and become a contender once again. The Bills and Buffalo were up for the Patriots and for a chance to change everything and I don’t think they will Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to have the same feel with the 2-4 Vikings in town.

DETROIT -3 over New Orleans
When you take the Saints out of the Superdome, they lose. The Saints are already 0-3 this year and while Calvin Johnson pulling a Mark Teixeira and saying, “I won’t play until I feel great,” isn’t exactly a strong sign of confidence for Lions fans for not only this week but the season, I can’t take the Saints on the road again. I just can’t.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Kansas City
The Chargers are 5-1, their only loss was a one-point loss (18-17) in Week 1 against in Arizona, they have won five straight and are 3-0 at home, winning by an average of 19.7 points. That’s good enough for me.

New York Giants +6.5 over DALLAS
This is for the season.

Arizona -6 over OAKLAND
The Jets did beat the Raiders in Week 1, but back then, Derek Carr had never played a game in the NFL. As of right now, Week 7, I’m not sure that the Jets are better than the Raiders. What does that have to do with the Cardinals looking to pick up an easy win in their quest to avenge their 10-win postseason-less season from last year? Nothing. I just thought it was worth noting that that the Raiders might be better than the Jets and that would mean the worst team in the NFL is likely either the Jets or the winless Jaguars. Unfortunately, the Jets and Jaguars don’t play each other this season.

DENVER -6.5 over San Francisco
The Broncos are playing in their second of three Sunday Night Football games this year this week. Peyton Manning is 38 years old and is in the third year of a five-year deal with the Broncos. Let’s say he plays out the remaining two years on his deal in 2015 and 2016, when he will be 40, and then retires (though I’m not sure he will retire then). Let’s say the Broncos have three Sunday Night Football games in 2014 and three in 2015. That means, including this week, Peyton has eight Sunday Night Football games left in his career and I’m sure Peyton is aware that the amount of Sunday night primetime games left in his career is dwindling. Peyton Manning lives for these games.

Houston +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I have no idea how to measure the Steelers and I have no idea what they are as a team. They survived a 24-point comeback by the Browns, were blown out by the Ravens, blew out the Panthers, gave the Buccaneers their only win, barely got past the Jaguars and were routed by the Browns. I’m still laughing at anyone who predicted them to return to the playoffs this season, considering they didn’t improve in the offseason, and while a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led team isn’t exactly a team worth trusting, the Texans are the better option in what should be another Monday Night Football game not worth watching.

Last week: 6-9-0
Season: 43-47-1

Podcasts • Rangers

Oct 16, 2014

Podcast: Mike Cole

The last two Eastern Conference winners are off to surprising bad starts even if it’s a little too early to be worried about the Rangers or Bruins.

The Rangers are off to a rough start. After winning what should have been their most difficult challenge so far this season on opening night in St. Louis, they have lost three straight games and have allowed 17 goals in the losses. In Boston, things haven’t been going much better for the Bruins either as the heavy favorites in the Eastern Conference have a hard time scoring goals and ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday night after having never lost three straight during the 2013-14 season.

Mike Cole of NESN.com joined me to talk about the state of hockey in New York and Boston, the difference between the two cities when it comes to sports and the realization of how hard it is to win a championship once you lose.

Blogs • Rangers

Oct 15, 2014

The Return of Rick Nash

Rick Nash is finally showing everyone why I was willing to trade anyone and everyone for him nearly three years ago at the deadline.

Rick Nash has been the only good thing about the Rangers this season. Sure, the season is only four games old and we are just 4.9 percent of the way through it, but while the defense looks like it’s playing in the Wednesday night 10 p.m. beer league and the Rangers’ goaltending is putting up Rick DiPietro-like numbers, Nash has provided six of the team’s 11 goals and is on pace for 123 goals this season.

I don’t really think Nash is going to not only beat, but completely shatter Wayne Gretzky’s 1981-82 record of 92 goals by 31 goals by averaging 1.5 goals per game for an entire 82-game schedule because that is never, ever happening. Never. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Not for Nash, not for Sidney Crosby, not for Alex Ovechkin, not for Steven Stamkos, not for anyone. But I do realize when something special is happening. I realized after one episode of Friday Night Lights that I was going to spend the next five days watching 50 episodes of a TV show. I realized after hearing Pearl Jam’s “Sirens” last fall for the first time that I was going to listen to it 1,519 times in the next year. I realized after reading The Bobby Orr Story for my summer reading book in middle school that I was going to keep reading it and using it for every summer reading and every book report through junior high school. When I sense something special coming around, it usually happens a lot, and it’s happening with Rick Nash scoring goals.

In 2011-12, Nash’s first season with the Rangers, he didn’t score his sixth goal of the season until the 17th game of the season and last season, he didn’t score his sixth goal of the season until the 15th game. But on Tuesday night against the Islanders when nothing was going right for the Rangers during an absolutely embarrassing third period, Nash scored his sixth goal of the young season after having scored his fifth in the first period.

Six goals and seven points in four games are the numbers I expect from Rick Nash. Well, maybe not “expect” since they project out to be insane figures (123-21-144), but then again, if anyone could score 123 goals and have only 21 assists, it would be Nash, whose entire career has been about having more goals than assists. And that’s what I mean by these are the numbers I expected from Nash. Columbus Nash scored more goals than he had assists in seven of nine seasons and that’s the Rick Nash I expected in New York: at least 30 goals on the low end and 40-plus on the high end. He has nearly given the Rangers that in his first two years when you project his 21 goals in 44 games in 2012-13 and his 26 goals in 65 games in 2013-14 out over 82 games, you get a 39-goal season in 2012-13 and a 33-goal season in 2013-14, which would have been the third- and fifth-best goal seasons of his 11-year career. Unfortunately, there isn’t an asterisk we can put aside his 2012-13 and 2013-14 numbers to denote Gary Bettman’s latest negotiation disaster and concussions as a result of head shots for why Nash didn’t achieve those projected goal totals.

Nash has played 113 regular-season games for the Rangers, scoring 53 goals in those games. That looks like steady production at .47 goals per game and without watching him you might think he is a model for consistent goal scoring in the NHL. But Nash has been anything but consistent as a Ranger, which actually makes him the perfect Ranger.

Let’s look at Nash’s 2012-13 regular season:

In seven games from Jan. 19 to Jan. 31, Nash had one goal (.14 goals per game).

In 12 games from Feb. 2 to March 8, Nash had eight goals (.67 GPG).

In eight games from March 10 to March 24, Nash had one goal (.13 GPG).

In eight games from March 26 to April 8, Nash had seven goals (.86 GPG).

In nine games from April 10 to April 27, Nash had four goals (.44 GPG).

And let’s look at Nash’s 2013-14 season:

In 11 games from Nov. 21 to Dec. 10, Nash had six goals (.55 GPG).

In 11 games from Dec. 12 Jan. 4, Nash had one goal (.09 GPG).

In 11 games from Jan. 6 to Jan. 26, Nash had 11 goals (1.00 GPG).

In 15 games from Jan. 29 to March 16, Nash had two goals (.13 GPG).

In seven games from March 18 to March 30, Nash had five goals (.71 GPG).

In six games from April 1 to April 12, Nash had one goal (.17 GPG).

Nash has admitted he’s a streaky goal scorer and over this first two years with the Rangers, he has owned up to his self evaluation. He scores in spurts and when he does, they aren’t usually in short spurts like the current four-game stretch to open the season. They are usually for a couple of weeks. While his current pace is league-leading and also impossible to keep up, his tendencies over the last two seasons do hint at the idea that this patented Rick Nash hot streak isn’t over yet.

But even if Nash joins the 50-goal club or gets back to his old home in the 40-goal club, ultimately, what he does in the regular season won’t matter for his legacy. Yes, his usual production is needed for the Rangers to actually reach the postseason, but until they get there, nothing Nash does will really matter to those who still don’t believe Henrik Lundqvist can lead a championship team even if he single-handedly carried the Rangers through the Eastern Conference playoffs and did everything but score in overtime in Games 1, 2 and 5 of the Final to prove he is the best goaltender in the world. Nash’s legacy won’t begin to once again be evaluated until the first game of the second season. With a Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy (2003-04), two Olympic gold medals (2010 and 2014), a shoe-in for 400 career goals and on a solid pace for 500 career goals, the only thing left for Nash to do is to have one of his patented hot streaks in the playoffs, prove himself in the postseason and hope that the year he finally puts it together in the spring is part of another Rangers’ Cup run.

I have waited six postseason series for Nash to come around. He didn’t score in seven games against the Capitals. He scored once in five games against the Bruins. He didn’t score in seven games against the Flyers. He didn’t score in seven games against the Penguins. He scored three times against the Canadiens. He didn’t score in five games against Kings. He scored in one of 12 playoff games in 2012-13 and in three of 25 playoff games in 2013-14. I would say somehow the Rangers went 18-19 in the last two postseasons with their best offensive player only scoring three goals in those 27 games, but that “somehow” is Henrik Lundqvist.

I have waited for two-plus years for this Rick Nash, Columbus Rick Nash, the Real Rick Nash to be a Ranger. And after not letting his extended slump negatively impact the rest of his game during the playoffs, he has started off this year better than I or anyone could have imagined or hoped for.

I have waited for that Rick Nash to show New York why I was willing to trade Chris Kreider and the whole farm for him at the 2011-12 trade deadline and now he’s arrived.

Welcome to New York, Rick Nash. It’s good to finally have you here.

NFL • Podcasts

Oct 15, 2014

Podcast: Tim Duff

The Jets’ season is on the brink of destruction and if they can’t salvage the final game of their six-week gauntlet their season will be over with seven games left.

It seems like the Jets being 1-0 and leading the Packers 21-3 in Lambeau Field in Week 2 never happened. After beating a bad Raiders team, which might be the worst team in league, in the season opener, the Jets entered a six-week gauntlet against the Packers, Bears, Lions, Chargers, Broncos and Patriots in which they have gone 0-5 and have pretty much guaranteed Rex Ryan’s last game as Jets head coach will be in Week 17.

For the third time this season, my friend and lifelong optimistic Jets fan Tim Duff joined me to talk about the state of the Jets, which isn’t exactly good, and even his optimism is starting to fade with the Jets riding a five-game losing streak into Thursday Night Football with the Patriots.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Oct 10, 2014

Everything Is Back to Normal for Giants-Eagles

Last year’s Giants-Eagles games didn’t feel like Giants-Eagles games because the first time they met they were both fighting for to keep their respective seasons alive and the second time they met Matt Barkley was

Last year’s Giants-Eagles games didn’t feel like Giants-Eagles games because the first time they met they were both fighting for to keep their respective seasons alive and the second time they met Matt Barkley was the quarterback of the Eagles. This year, everything is back to normal between the two NFC East rivals.

With the Giants headed to Philadelphia on Sunday night, I did an email exchange with Brandon Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation to talk about the struggles of LeSean McCoy this season, Nick Foles’ first full season as the starting quarterback and what Chip Kelly needs to do to remain popular in Philadelphia.

Keefe: The last time we talked was before Week 5 last season when the Giants were still looking for their first win of the season and the Eagles were 1-3 looking to save their season too. The Eagles won 36-21 and eventually went on to win the NFC East and saved their season, and the Giants fell to 0-5 before falling to 0-6 and eventually finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the second straight year.

This season things are different. The Giants are 3-2 and riding a three-game winning streak while the Eagles are 4-1 and tied atop the division with the Cowboys in what is now a very competitive division after being predicted for another down year.

The Eagles have played four games decided by six points or less this season (in their other game they beat the Jaguars 34-17 in Week 1, but they trailed 17-0 at halftime) and have had trouble putting lesser opponents away.

The Eagles are 4-1 and tied for first place, but are you worried about the way they have finished games?

Gowton: It’s really hard to get a good read on this Eagles team. On one hand, they’re 4-1. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at. On the other hand, they still need to play a lot better moving forward. As cliche as it may sound, they have yet to play an entire 60 minutes of football. The consistency just isn’t there yet. Part of that is because two of their most important players are struggling: quarterback Nick Foles and running back LeSean McCoy. Injuries on the team’s offensive line have contributed to these struggles.
There are definitely legitimate concerns with this team. As I said earlier, they need to play better moving forward.

Keefe: Depending on who you ask, LeSean McCoy is arguably the best running back in the NFL. A three-time 1,000-yard rusher coming off a 1,607-yard season last year, in which he averaged 100.4 yards per game, McCoy has rushed for only 273 yards in five games this year, an average of 54.6 yards per game. And on top of that, he’s found the end zone only once.

Two weeks ago against the 49ers, McCoy struggled to get going and finished with 17 yards on 10 carries in the 26-21 loss. With the game on the line and the Eagles faced with third-and-goal from the San Francisco 1, the Eagles threw an incomplete pass and then did the same on fourth-and-goal from the 1. Prior to that third-down situation, McCoy was able to pick up five yards on a run against the strong San Francisco run defense. Maybe McCoy didn’t have it that day and maybe trying to get one yard at the goal line against the 49ers’ goal-line defense wouldn’t have worked out, but how do you not try? It’s LeSean McCoy, not Brandon Jacobs.

What has been wrong with McCoy through the first five games and do you agree with the decisions at the goal line against the 49ers?

Gowton: The problem with running at the goal line there was the offense line just couldn’t get much push for the entire game. Should they have tried at least once? Probably, but it was far from a slam dunk decision.

McCoy’s struggles are something of a mystery. No one expected him to play down to this level. There are a number of factors contributing to McCoy’s mishaps. The most obvious one is Philadelphia’s banged up offensive. The patch-work unit the Eagles have been trotting out is still missing All-Pro left guard and stud center Jason Kelce. Starting right tackle Lane Johnson missed the team’s first four games due to suspension. All of those players are great run blockers. It’s hard to expect backups to play to the same level.

The struggles of Foles also feed into the struggles of McCoy. Teams just aren’t threatened by Foles right now. He’s throwing an inaccurate deep ball and teams would rather sell out on stopping McCoy by loading the box. If Foles steps up and proves to be more of a threat I imagine McCoy would see more running room at times.
McCoy can’t be completely absolved of blame. There are times when he has space or the opportunity to make a defender miss and he just isn’t getting the job done. It’s obvious he’s frustrated.

Keefe: Last season, Nick Foles broke out with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in leading the Eagles back to the NFC East title and back to the playoffs for the first time in three years. Foles has been good again this season, throwing for over 300 yards in the first three games of the year, but his performance the last two weeks combined against the 49ers and Rams was Mark Sanchez-esque (402 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs).

Sure, Foles was never going to be able to keep up his TD-to-INT ratio of 13.5-to-1, but has his played through the first five weeks of the season been up to your standards of how you thought he would be in his first full season as the starting quarterback?

Gowton: Foles has not played as well as he should have, no. I can’t say I’m totally shocked by his struggles. Despite his impressive numbers in 2013 there were still moments where it felt like he left too many easy plays on the field. That’s exactly what’s happening in 2014, except with more frequency.

There’s no doubt that Foles needs to be better. He’s been very up and down. He’s played five games to this point and only one of them has been good (Week 3 against Washington). That’s simply not acceptable.

Keefe: Chip Kelly went to the Eagles in a favorable situation with the Eagles coming off a 4-12 season and Andy Reid being let go after years of “Should Andy Reid be fired?” dominating the offseason headlines in Philadelphia. In his first season, he led the team to 10-6 record and a playoff appearance despite using three different starting quarterbacks. After Reid was unable to fully utilize all of the talent of the Eagles’ offense, Kelly was able to get the most out of his weapons in a season that would have been lost with other teams due to the quarterback injuries.

From outside Philadelphia, the perception of Kelly seems to be that Eagles fans and the city love him. Outside of the 1-3 start last year, he hasn’t allowed anyone to rethink the team’s decision to let Reid go and he has the Eagles off to their best start since 2006. However, in Philadelphia, like New York, or any sports-crazed city, the mood and approval of a head coach can change and in a hurry if the team isn’t winning and then isn’t winning playoff games and then isn’t winning Super Bowls.

What are your expectations for Kelly and what does he need to do to stay in the good graces of Eagles? Is it another division title? Is it a conference championship game? Is it a Super Bowl?

Gowton: At the very minimum, Kelly and the Eagles need to be actively competing for the division crown late in the season. Anything less would seem like a failure. It wouldn’t result in Kelly’s dismissal; he’s only in the second season of his five-year contract. The ideal goal is at least one playoff win considering the Eagles made it to the dance last year and came close to beating the Saints but were slightly edged out.

Keefe: The Cowboys are going to lose this week. A road game in Seattle is a guaranteed loss for even the league’s elite teams let alone the Cowboys, so they are going to be 4-2 before the Giants and Eagles kick off in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. So that means the Giants-Eagles game will decide the situation at the top of the NFC East after six weeks with either a three-way 4-2 tie or the Eagles having a one-game lead over Cowboys and a two-game lead over the Giants.

The Giants haven’t swept the season series from the Eagles since 2007 and for the last three years the season series has been a split. So for me to think the Giants are going to walk into Lincoln Financial on Sunday night and make things easy for me, they aren’t.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Gowton: I honestly think it’s going to be an awesome game. The Eagles-Giants games really lacked the kind of intensity that’s surrounding this game. There’s been trash talk heading into this game. The Eagles will be debuting all-black uniforms for the first time. It’s Sunday Night Football. There’s just a lot of energy and anticipation involved here. I have a hard time believing it’ll disappoint.

I think it’ll be a fairly even match-up. New York is coming into this game hot and Philadelphia will bring their A-game in front of the Philadelphia faithful. Lincoln Financial Field is going to be loud and crazy. This is the closest thing to a playoff atmosphere you’ll get in Week 6 of the regular season. The Birds are on a seven-game win streak while at home and I think they get the job done yet again. Philadelphia wins, 31-27.