Chris Shearn of YES Network joined me to talk about the level of confidence for the Yankees this postseason.
The layoff between the end of the regular season and the start of the postseason feels extra long this season because there’s no wild-card game to prepare and worry about and because September was a formality for the Yankees. I’m not complaining since I’m ecstatic the Yankees have finally avoided the wild-card game, but I’m ready for Game 1.
Chris Shearn of YES Network joined me to talk about feeling confident about the Yankees heading into the playoffs, why the Yankees have the best possible ALDS opponent, what the lineup and rotation should be, trusting Aaron Boone in the postseason and what the Yankees have to do for this season to be considered successful.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
The regular season is over and that means the over/under predictions for the Yankees are over as well. Before the postseason begins, let’s look back at my over/under predictions from the season and see where I went right and wrong.
The regular season is over and that means the over/under predictions for the Yankees are over as well. Before the postseason begins, let’s look back at my over/under predictions from the season and see where I went right and wrong.
Part of the write-up from March is italicized. (This season’s win total in parentheses)
Gary Sanchez: Under 13.5 passed balls (7): WIN Last season, Gary Sanchez led the majors with 18 passed balls despite only catching 76 games, 74 which were starts and 67 which were complete games. The year before, he led the league with 16 passed balls in 104 games caught, 99 which were starts and 91 which were complete games. Somehow, Sanchez increased his passed ball total despite appearing in 28 last games. No, that’s not ideal.
But I’m optimistic when it comes to Sanchez and think he will be better behind the plate in 2019, as long as he isn’t struggling offensively since I believed that affected his defensive work either. It would be nice to see him less, let’s say lazy, when he’s got his gear on and not letting fastballs go by him to advance base runners. Sanchez has to be better in 2019. I can’t go another season of listening to idiots call for Austin Romine to be the team’s starting catcher.
After leading the league in passed balls in back-to-back seasons, Sanchez only had seven this season. He caught 14 more games than he did in 2018 and 14 less than he did in 2017, but significantly cut down his passed ball total.
Miguel Andujar: .299 batting average (.143): LOSS For a long time, having a .300 hitter on the Yankees wasn’t unusual, considering they had Derek Jeter for two decades and during his years also had some pretty good players. But since Jeter aged and Robinson Cano left, it’s been a while since you could look at the big screen in center field at the Stadium and see .300 next to a Yankee late in the season. Andujar’s rookie season and his contact ability are the perfect combination to believe that will change.
Technically, this is a loss, but I feel like it should go down as an incomplete. Andujar only played in 12 games, and played with a significant injury in nine of them, posting a .143 batting average (6-for-47).
It’s going to be interesting to see what the Yankees do at third base in 2019 when Andujar returns after Gio Urshela’s breakout season at the plate. Unfortunately, it’s a storyline that’s not going to go away this offseason or in spring training or in the regular season next year unless one of them is traded.
Aaron Hicks: Under 145 games played (59): WIN Everything about the Aaron Hicks contract extension is great except that he could be playing center field for the Yankees as a 36-year-old in 2026, and I’m not about to go back to 2013-16. The good news is if he sucks then or really at any point in this deal, it’s not an overwhelming amount of money the Yankees owe him or would have to eat. At $10 million per season for a starting center fielder in this center field climate, it might be the best contract the Yankees have ever had on their payroll.
The biggest problem with Hicks is that he can’t stay healthy, which he is showing once again as he won’t be ready for Opening Day and probably not for more than a week into the regular season. Hicks needs to find a way to avoid his one to two injured list stints per seasons. It’s the last piece of the puzzle for a player who saved his career and was awarded life-changing money.
Hicks didn’t ended up missing the first series of the season or the first week, he ended up missing the first six-plus weeks. Then after coming back from the long and weird back injury, Hicks hurt his elbow in early August and hasn’t played since, finishing the season with 59 games played.
Hicks turns 30 tomorrow and the Yankees have him for six more seasons. For a player who never played a full season in the majors in his 20s, I don’t expect him to be healthier on the other side of 30. Thankfully, his contract won’t prevent the team from making necessary moves in the future.
Gleyber Torres: Over 25 home runs (38): WIN The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and their best player in 2019 and possibly beyond might be Gleyber Torres. The 22-year-old middle infielder was an All-Star in his first season, carrying the Yankees for the first few weeks of his arrival before hitting a wall in the dog days of the season.
As excited as I am for this Yankees season and the first season in what was always expected to be the first season of this window of opportunity, I’m especially excited to see how Torres grows and adjusts to a league that will certainly have adjusted to him after what he did last year. A sophomore slump for Torres? I don’t see it.
Torres laughed at the idea of a sophomore slump or teh league adjusting to him as he batted .278/.337/.535 with 38 home runs and 90 RBIs, easily covering the home run total set here. Aaron Boone finalyl relized it wa s time to stop batitng TOres ninth and moved him up int othe top half othe order and there’s a chance he could be hitting as high as third in the postseason.
James Paxton: Under 160 1/3 innings (150 2/3 innings): WIN When you look at James Paxton’s numbers, you see a pitcher with not a lot of miles on his arm and just 582 1/3 innings as a now 30-year-old. The reason there isn’t a lot of miles on his arm is because there’s other problems with his arm, and his shoulder and his back, and so on.
In theory, Paxton is a great fit as a power left-hander pitching half of his games in Yankee. The problem is Paxton’s career high for starts is 28 and innings is 160 1/3, and they both came last season. It would be a miracle if Paxton were to get through the 2019 unscathed to start 32 times and give the Yankees 200 innings. Until he has a season in which he’s able to avoid the injured list even once, it’s hard to believe it will happen.
Paxton finished the season at 150 2/3 innings, thanks to his annual injured-list trip, which came early in the season. Paxton was solid in his first season as a Yankee after a 10-game winning streak to end the season (minus his last start) saved his overall numbers. He had a 4.72 ERA at the end of July, but finished with a 3.82 and 15 wins in 29 starts.
There were great moments and awful moments, in a season which was really two seasons for the left-hander: Opening Day through the end of July and August through September. It was exactly the type of season I expected from an inconsistent left-hander with “great stuff”.
Aaron Judge: 118.5 walks (68): LOSS The number most people care about when it comes to Aaron Judge is home runs. and rightfully so. But after that it should be walks.
Judge led the league with 127 walks in 2017 and was on a 110-walk pace last season if not for the broken wrist (he ended up with 76). When Judge is getting his walks, you know he’s going right, and he’s setting the table for the guys behind him and tiring the pitcher on the mound for Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez.
If were up to me, I would bat Judge leadoff. I get that Aaron Hicks is a solid leadoff candidate, but he’s not Judge. Judge has a .409 on-base percentage over the last two seasons and seems to always be in full counts. He’s not going to give away an at-bat or swing at the first pitch and ground out to short. I want the best hitter on the team to get the most at-bats over the course of a season and the best hitter on the team is Judge. It’s certainly not Brett Gardner.
You can’t plan for injuries and for the second straight season, Judge missed significant time, which caused this number to go under at 68. After last season’s broken wrist, Judge landed on the injured list for two months with an oblique injury. Judge missed the end of the 2016 season with a oblique injury, played through a shoulder injury in the second half of 2017, had the broken wrist in 2018 and then the oblique injury in 2019. Can we get a full healthy season of Judge? Especially with the current state of the baseballs.
Masahiro Tanaka: Over 13.5 wins (11): LOSS Masahiro Tanaka has never thrown 200 innings in the regular season for the Yankees. He came within one out (199 2/3 innings) in 2016, but aside from that his best season was 178 1/3 in 2017.
Another thing Tanaka hasn’t done is win more than 14 games. He’s won 13, 12, 14, 13 and 12. And while I’m not big on pitcher’s win totals since it’s more of a team effort and a lot more is needed that the pitcher simply going at least five innings and pitching well, it’s definitely shocking Tanaka has been unable to reach even 15 wins in what has been a very good career in the majors (64-34 with a 3.59 ERA in 132 starts).
Tanaka needs to give the Yankees quality starts (and starts period), especially at the beginning of the season with two-thirds of the rotation out. If he does that, with this offense, against the crap teams they will see in April, Tanaka will be well on his way to crushing this win total.
When Tanaka had a 1.47 ERA through his first three starts I thought he was well on his way to crushing the over. Then he made a habit of blowing leads with a single crooked-number inning each start and the offense gave him little to no run support in other starts and he finished with 11 wins.
Tanaka received a decision in six starts in which he went at least six innings and gave up two earned runs or less, and that was the difference in him going over the win total. But as long as Tanaka pitches in October the way he has in five previous October starts, that’s all I care about.
Brett Gardner: Under .340 on-base percentage (.325): WIN Gardner looked finish last season. He finished at .236/.322/.368, which are catcher-like numbers for a guy who was given the chance at the most at-bats by the team for the first five months of the season. I didn’t want Gardner back in 2019 and wanted the team to go in a different direction like Michael Brantley, who the Astros signed, and will undoubtedly have a big hit or hits against the Yankees in the postseason. Because Clint Frazier would need time to get back to playing baseball every day after losing most of the 2018 season, the Yankees couldn’t go into 2019 thinking he would be a full-time Major Leaguer. So they brought Gardner back on a one-year, $7.5 million deal, thinking his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence were needed and that his sharp decline last season wasn’t indicative of what he has left in the tank.
Gardner enjoyed a career resurgence with the new baseball, hitting an astonishing 28 home runs in season win which he wasn’t supposed to play every day and a season in which he started out looking like he was more than finished as a major leaguer. Now he’s most certainly going to be back with the team in 2020.
But even though Gardner experienced a power surge, he didn’t experience an on-base surge and was unable to return his old self when it comes to getting on base. Yes, his OPS went from .690 to .829, but his on-base only went from .322 to .325, the second-worst of his career. As long as Gardner continues to hit home runs, his on-base percentage dipping won’t matter, but if he regresses power-wise, he’ll turn back into the player who lost his leadoff spot and job completely in 2018.
Giancarlo Stanton: Under 200 strikeouts (24): WIN Giancarlo Stanton was OK in his first season as Yankee. Yes, a .266/.343/.509 hitter with 38 home runs and 100 RBIs was just OK.
Here are the most common excuses from the Stanton fan club heard last season:
1. He’s with a new organization 2. He’s in a new league and has to learn new pitchers 3. He’s playing his home games in colder weather at the beginning and end of the season 4. He needs to get acclimated and adjusted to living in a new city
Maybe some or all of those are true, but they are no longer valid. Not in Year 2, not in 2019. Unfortunately, we can’t go back and redo what happened in October, we only know it can’t happen again. As a Marlin, Stanton would supposedly go to Europe during the MLB postseason since it was too painful to watch. Well, he better change his approach at the plate and with runners on or he’s going to being going to Europe a lot during the World Series as a Yankee.
If I’m going to take a chap loss on Andujar’s batting average, I’m going to take the cheap win on Stanton’s strikeout total. Stanton only played in 18 games, so it was impossible for him to not go under. In those 18 games, he struck out 24 times, so if he had kept that pace for 162 games, it would have translated to 216 strikeouts, but you have to figure he wouldn’t have played all 162 games. The number would have been close had Stanton been healthy all season, but I’ll gladly take the win here. Now it’s up to Stanton to redeem himself in the postseason for his forgettable 2018 postseason.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
Andrew Rotondi of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about everything Yankees for the ALDS.
The regular season is over and for the first time in a long time, the regular season was just a formality for the Yankees. Now the real season begins and Game 1 of the ALDS is Friday night at Yankee Stadium.
Andrew Rotondi of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the possibility of Brett Gardner or Didi Gregorius batting third in the playoffs, Luke Voit being left off the postseason roster, if Aaron Boone has learned from his past postseason mistakes, the biggest worries for October, why the Yankees should easily win the ALDS and why the ALCS is essentially the World Series.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!
The regular season is over, so it’s time look back at my 2019 over/under win total predictions and see where I went right and wrong.
The regular season is over. It feels like just yesterday I was picking five over and five under win totals for the season and now it’s all over.
With the end of the regular season, it’s time look back at my 2019 over/under win total predictions and see where I went right and wrong it what was a 7-3 season. Here is the 2019 MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions blog.
Part of the write-up from March is italicized. (This season’s win total in parentheses)
OVERS
NEW YORK YANKEES, 96.5 (103): WIN On paper, the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Unfortunately, “on paper” doesn’t win the World Series and starting the season with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Dellin Betances and Aaron Hicks all unavailable, and Didi Gregorius out until at least midseason isn’t exactly helpful to exceeding a win total of 96.5. Thankfully, the majority of Major League Baseball isn’t trying to win and getting back near 100 wins won’t be that hard.
Unfortunately, the injuries didn’t stop with the spring training injures of Severino, Sabathia, Betances and Hicks. Miguel Andujar would be lost for the season, Giancarlo Stanton would miss nearly the entire season, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge would miss a couple months, Luke Voit would go on the injured list twice for a hernia, Brett Gardner would spend time on the IL, as would James Paxton and Edwin Encarnacion, and Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman. The Yankees got hurt, their replacements got hurt and their replacement’s replacements got hurt. The Yankees set the single-season record for most players to go on the injured list and they still covered their by six-and-a-half wins. It’s scary to think what type of record this team would have been capable of had they been at full strength, or even 75 percent, all season.
CHICAGO CUBS, 88 (84): LOSS There is this idea the Cubs are trending in the wrong direction and won’t be good for some reason in 2019. Listen, I don’t like the Cubs and would like nothing more than for them to be a disaster this season, but it’s just not realistic. The Brewers will once again be right there contending for the NL Central and the Cardinals and Reds made vast improvements, but it’s still the Cubs’ division to lose, just like it was last year until … they lost it.
Once again the NL Central was the Cubs’ to lose, and once again, they lost it. Their losing streak in the second-to-last week of the season ruined their playoff chances, and before Game 162, the team announced Joe Maddon wouldn’t be back for 2020. After winning the 2016 World Series, the Cubs lost in the ALCS then lost both a tie-breaker game for the division and wild-card game and then didn’t even make the playoffs. The Cubs need significant changes to their major league roster and might want to think about not allowing Theo Epstein to sign any free agents with his career track record in that market. It will be a while until I believe in the Cubs covering an over.
HOUSTON ASTROS, 96.5 (107): WIN The Astros’ biggest problem (which clearly wasn’t much of a problem after winning the World Series in 2017 and reaching the ALCS in 2018) was that their lineup wasn’t long. The addition of Michael Brantley — a player I wanted the Yankees to sign instead of Brett Gardner — gives them that length as they can now stack George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Brantley in some order one through five. That’s a very scary one through five.
I’m petrified of the Yankees having to face Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in a potential ALCS matchup. I’m also worried about how the Yankees’ pitching is going to handle the lengthy lineup the Astros now have with George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel making up the top two-thirds of their lineup. The Astros were the best team in baseball this season, mostly due to the significant injuries suffered by the Yankees, and they will be the team to beat in the postseason as well.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS, 83.5 (72): LOSS It’s hard to find overs to pick and believe in when nearly all of baseball seems to be trying not to win, or at least not investing in winning. The Angels are my pick for the second wild card and while I don’t trust them, I think they will be at least a .500 team in 2019. I could see them being a 90-win team this season, which is enough to eclipse their number.
Looking back, I don’t know why I thought the Angels would be good. I guess I looked at the teams not named the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox and thought they would be at the top of that next tier of teams in baseball and at least a team capable of playing two-games-over-.500 baseball this season. But the Angels were their usual crappy selves, falling 12 wins short of covering in what was another losing season for the franchise.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, 89.5 (81): LOSS I hate this pick, I really do. I don’t want the Phillies to do well, but unfortunately, one team in the NL East is going to win 90 games and I think the Phillies have the best chance to do it. My Phillies pick is more of a process of elimination pick.
The Mets? I’m not about to ever back the Mets to meet or exceed expectations even if their number is four wins lower (85.5). The Nationals? They had trouble scoring runs and winning games with the face of their franchise. I’m not sure how an 82-win team gets an 88.5 number when their biggest addition was one-year-wonder Patrick Corbin. The Braves? They are the biggest threat to the Phillies in the division, especially since they won 90 games last season, but a lot has changed in the NL East since last season.
At least I knew I hated picking the Phillies’ over while I picked it. The Phillies’ lineup and rotation on paper still looks strong. As for their bullpen, I didn’t think it would cost them their season and cost me this over. The Phillies were built on hype and I bought into that hype thinking they would battle the Braves for the NL East title, when instead it would be Bryce Harper’s former team which would finish second in the NL East. When Harper signed with the Phillies he talked about recruiting other free agents to play for the Phillies in future seasons. Any free agent chasing a championship won’t be signing there with how competitive this division is looking for the foreseeable future.
UNDERS
BALTIMORE ORIOLES, 58.5 (54): WIN The Orioles won 47 games last season. 47! And that was with a half season of Manny Machado playing at an MVP level. This season, they won’t have Machado at all and will have the worst roster top to bottom in the league, much worse than last season’s roster, which won 47 games. If this number were at least year’s 47 it would be too high. At 58.5 it’s outrageous.
There are layups and then there’s picking the Orioles to win less than 59 games. This one was about as easy as it gets as the Orioles finished five wins shy of covering and 49 games back of the Yankees in the division. It’s going to be hard not to pick the Orioles again next season.
BOSTON RED SOX, 94.5 (84): WIN Outside of a rotation that’s banking on Chris Sale’s shoulder to continue to hold up, David Price to avoid falling off again, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez to be consistent and Nathan Eovaldi to not turn back into the Nathan Eovaldi that caused every team until the Red Sox to give up on him, the Red Sox’ biggest question is their bullpen. Their ownership basically said to the fan base “We won the World Series, we’re reeling in the spending” as they chose not to bring back Craig Kimbrel and are going with a bullpen so shaky that their starting pitching became their non-closing relief options in the playoffs. That can work over the course of a month in the postseason, however, it’s a recipe for disaster over the course of six months in the regular season.
Chris Sale got hurt, David Price got hurt, Rick Porcello was awful, Nathan Eovaldi got hurt and was ineffective and the bullpen was a disaster. Everything that went right for the Red Sox in 2018 went wrong for them in 2019, and it was an enjoyable six months of watching them lose and lose and lose some more. All of the losing got Dave Dombrowski fired, and now the Red Sox have essentially a team of general managers, a lot of money tied up in an injured rotation, and aren’t sure if they want to pay Mookie Betts. As long as the Dodgers don’t come and rescue the Red Sox from their payroll situation again, they’re headed to a dark era.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX, 74 (72): WIN I feel the least confident about this pick out of all the unders I selected, only because the White Sox are headed in the right direction and nearly there, while the other clubs have a ways to go. Signing Manny Machado would have helped greatly, as he stood them up, showing he could care less if his family members and friends in Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay are now on the team. The reason I’m picking the White Sox as they inch closer and closer to baseball relevancy is that for them to increase their win total by 12 from last season, a lot has to happen. A lot.
The White Sox put a late-season run together to put this pick in jeopardy, but ended up falling two wins short of a push and three wins short of a cover. The White Sox are headed in the right direction, and in a division in which the Royals and Tigers are nowhere near contending and the Indians don’t want to pay anyone, the White Sox are going to have a window coming up where they could win the AL Central and return to the postseason.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS, 69.5 (59): WIN The Royals did nothing to improve in the offseason, they actually got worse, and yet, their number is 11 wins higher this season. Everything about them says “Last place in the AL Central” and that was with Salvador Perez and now Perez is out for the season, needing Tommy John surgery.
This might have been the easiest under to pick of all. The Royals had no business having their line be 11 wins higher than they had in 2018, and they proved it by finishing 11 wins shy of covering. The Royals don’t look like they’re anywhere near ready to be competitive, falling back into their 1990s and 2000s days. I might be picking against the Royals for a while.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS, 74.5 (67): WIN The Blue Jays are now in complete rebuild mode after having missed out on their championship window. First, they let Jose Bautista leave as a free agent and then Edwin Encarnacion and then Josh Donaldson and then they released Troy Tulowitzki, essentially now paying him to play for the Yankees. The heart of their order from their 2015 and 2016 ALCS appearances is gone and any valuable assets they have left between now and the trade deadline this season will be gone too.
The Blue Jays gave me a clean sweep with my under picks as they were as bad as expected. Aside from White Sox, they have the brightest future with a young and controllable offense that’s major-league ready. If they’re able to combine the top of their lineup with some starting pitching, the Blue Jays might not be a postseason team, but they certainly won’t be a team I would be picking as an under.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
The Giants have done it. They have reeled me back in. They have reeled me back into having a reason to watch each week, and that’s not something I thought was possible two weeks ago.
The Giants have done it. They have reeled me back in. Well, they haven’t reeled me back into thinking they are good enough to reach the postseason, but they have reeled me back into having a reason to watch each week, and that’s not something I thought was possible two weeks ago when they fell to 0-2 with yet another embarrassing performance.
The happiness for the end of the Eli Manning era is a little much given that Manning had to start on the road at Dallas and against the Bills’ defense, while Daniel Jones got the Buccaneers defense (and their kicker) and then the Redskins. But even though Manning’s lengthy career has all but come to an end, Jones is off to a 2-0 start as the Giants’ starting quarterback and has looked extremely comfortable in his two starts.
For as bad as the Giants are, the Redskins are on a whole other level. They are now 0-4 on the season and after Case Keenum was pulled for being unable to get yards, let alone points, against this Giants defense, the Redskins turned to Dwayne Haskins, who had already been deemed not ready for game action by Jay Gruden. While Keenum threw one interception on 11 pass attempts, Haskins — who many thought the Giants should inexplicably draft — threw three on 17 pass attempts. The Giants were able to pass and run all over the Redskins’ defense for 389 total yards, while the Redskins only accumulated 176 total yards(!) against this Giants defense. That’s how bad the Redskins are.
It’s hard to envision the Giants losing to the Redskins when the two teams meet again in Week 16 in Washington because by then Jones will have nearly a full season of experience and the Giants won’t be without Saquon Barkley (knock on wood for both). When you add in games against the Cardinals, Jets and Dolphins, there’s a good chance the Giants win six-plus games this season, which isn’t something that seemed possible two weeks ago.
Unfortunately, the schedule takes a turn over the next 10 days as the Giants will host the Vikings and then go on the road on a short week to play the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. It would be an impressive accomplishment to win one of the two games and come away from them at 3-3. The easier of the two games would be against the Vikings at MetLife, but without three key pieces on defense (just think about what the defense will look like with three new players who weren’t good enough to play already), even if Kirk Cousins is an average-at-best quarterback, I’m not sure how the Giants will stop Dalvin Cook. Add in another missed game for Barkley, and it’s easy to see the Giants falling to 2-3.
The Vikings can be worried about as the week progresses. For now, Giants fans can bask in Sunday’s win, even if the opponent was as bad it will get aside from the Dolphins this season. So far it seems like the Giants have found their next franchise quarterback and the heir to Manning, and being successful on the first try is worth more than any win this season.
