Here are the bets for Saturday, April 9.
Tigers +115 over White Sox
The Tigers’ starting lineup on Saturday has crushed Dylan Cease with an .876 OPS in 75 plate appearances. The White Sox’ starting lineup has only hit for a .717 OPS against Casey Mize. When I originally saw this line, the Tigers were at +130. By the time I bet it, it had dropped to +115.
The Tigers stole the first game of the series when A.J. Pollock couldn’t cleanly catch a Javier Baez ball off the wall to give the Tigers’ a walk-off win after replay review. Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks combined to throw 76 pitches, and I’m not sure if any will be available back-to-back games to begin the season when it will be 40 degrees with a feels like of 33 at first pitch in Detroit on Saturday.
Brewers -150 over Cubs
This game and this matchup was supposed to take place yesterday. I’m still on it with some added value as it was -160 when I took it yesterday.
I’m not as high on the Brewers as most, especially projections, because their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, they have a very strong rotation and a solid bullpen, but the only hitter to fear is Christian Yelich, and it’s going on three years since he has last been feared. Unless you fear ex-Yankee legend Jace Peterson who started at third base for the Brewers in their season-opening loss to the Cubs.
That season-opening loss to the Cubs is why I’m on the Brewers in Game 2 of the series. The Cubs are awful. They used their one good starter in Game 1, and used a Nico Hoerner two-run home run to help lead them to an unexpected win in a game started by Corbin Burnes. (Of course, Clint Frazier went 1-for-1 with a double in his Cubs debut. I will miss Frazier.) Back-to-back wins for the Cubs over the Brewers? I don’t see it. Especially since no one outside of Andrelton Simmons (5-for-7) hits Brandon Woodruff. I don’t expect Justin Steele to give the Cubs length on Friday (five innings would be his ceiling in an ideal scenario), so the Cubs will need at least four innings from their bullpen, and the Brewers will have many opportunities to win this one.
Yankees -155 over Red Sox
The first batters in the Yankees’ lineup on Saturday are a combined 12-for-41 (.292) with five home runs against Nick Pivetta. The current Red Sox roster is miserable against Luis Severino. J.D. Martinez has a .921 OPS in 19 plate appearances, but that’s it. Jackie Bradley .533 (30 plate appearances), Xander Bogaerts .200 (25), Rafael Devers .143 (14).
I never feel confident picking these Yankees against these Red Sox, but the numbers suggest I’m foolish to feel this way. It’s Severino’s first start since Game 3 of the 2019 ALCS, and he will likely be held to even less of a pitch count than Gerrit Cole was on Friday at 75-80. Even so, I think a Yankees offense that struggled on Opening Day and got all of their runs via the home run and the automatic runner will bust out on Saturday. With Aaron Hicks sitting, Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield and Aaron Boone suddenly turning into a reliable manager in a one-game and two-day sample size, it’s lining up for a 2-0 start to the season for the Yankees.
Dodgers -145 over Rockies
The Dodgers’ lineup doesn’t have very good numbers against German Marquez, but the Rockies’ lineup has abysmal numbers against Tony Gonsolin in a limited 30 plate appearances. But it’s the Dodgers against the Rockies, and there’s no reason the Dodgers shouldn’t be at least -200 every time they play the Rockies. It doesn’t matter that it’s Marquez and it doesn’t matter that it’s on the road. The Rockies suck.
Dodgers-Rockies Under 12 -115
The Dodgers-Rockies under 11.5 was cruising on Friday with two runs scored heading into the fourth. Then the Dodgers scored five times, forcing the Rockies to go to their bullpen and I figured the wager was lost cause. Needing 33 outs at Coors Field and only being able to give up four runs? Not a spot you want to be in. Thankfully, both teams put up zeros all the way until the bottom of the ninth when the Rockies scored a run.
I’m going back to the well on Saturday with the over/under increased by half a run. The Dodgers have a lesser pitcher going on Saturday in Gonsolin than on Friday in Walker Buehler, but the Rockies have a better pitcher going on Saturday in Marquez than on Friday in Kyle Freeland.