The Yankees needed to win Game 1 of the ALDS against the Guardians with Gerrit Cole on the mound against Cal Quantrill. They did just that.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. As I do every postseason, I gave everyone on the Yankees a clean slate, including Aaron Boone. But in doing so, I figured Boone would muddy his slate as soon as he the Game 1 lineup was announced, which he did. He actually muddied it late the night before when he admittedly stayed at the Stadium on Monday night trying to decide between Oswald Peraza or Marwin Gonzalez on the ALDS roster. He went with the veteran because of course he did, and decided to leave the Yankees’ best shortstop option off the roster.

I predicted this would be the Game 1 lineup:

Aaron Judge, RF
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Gleyber Torres, 2B
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Oswaldo Cabrera, LF
Harrison Bader, CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS
Jose Trevino, C

This was the actual Game 1 lineup:

Aaron Judge, RF
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Gleyber Torres, 2B
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Oswaldo Cabrera, LF
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS
Jose Trevino, C
Harrison Bader, CF

It was close, but Boone did the right thing in batting Giancarlo Stanton ahead of Josh Donaldson. (Stanton should be batting behind Anthony Rizzo as Gleyber Torres serves no protection for anyone.)

2. Boone didn’t do the right thing in playing Isiah Kiner-Falefa. I have spent an inordinate amount of time in 2022 writing and talking about how bad Kiner-Falefa is at baseball, all while Boone has continued to preach how good Kiner-Falefa is as if statistics don’t exist, and at times as if eyesight doesn’t exist. Kiner-Falefa did what he does best in Game 1, booting a ground ball in the first inning, grounding into a double play in his first at-bat and mistiming his jump on a line drive later in the game. He even lined into a second double play in his final at-bat for good measure.

Kiner-Falefa did pick up an opposite-field base hit his second time up that was misplayed and mishandled allowing him to go to third before scoring on a Jose Trevino sacrifice fly. But that one base hit doesn’t erase all the bad he provided in the game, for which there was a lot. It’s one thing to give extra outs to the weak Guardians lineup. If the Yankees are able to advance, and they play the Astros, it will be extremely difficult to beat them as is, let alone if they are playing with more than three outs in an inning.

3. Boone didn’t start Matt Carpenter, choosing to not play the Yankees’ version of Barry Bonds. This has nothing to do with Carpenter having not played in some time, and everything to do with the Yankees not wanting to play Stanton in the outfield, taking the DH possibility away from Carpenter. The Yankees don’t want to play Stanton in the outfield, and they don’t want to play Carpenter in the field, so that means the team’s second-best hitter is relegated to pinch hitting in the postseason. Not great.

4. Gerrit Cole’s night didn’t start out great. He had to pitch around Kiner-Falefa’s error in the first and threw 24 pitches. In the second, he allowed a one-out double, but was able to strike out the Guardians’ 7- and 8-hitters. In the third, he allowed a solo home run to Steven Kwan (who rarely homers) then hit Amed Rosario and gave up a one-out double to Jose Ramirez. After an Anthony Rizzo brain fart resulted in Josh Naylor reaching on a fielder’s choice, the Guardians had the bases loaded with one out. Thankfully, Cole got out of the jam.

Cole needed 25 pitches to navigate through the one-run third and was at 62 pitches through three innings. He was having his typical start with a lot of pitches (the 62 to get six nine outs), a home run (the solo shot by Kwan) and a lot of strikeouts (he had five in the first three innings). But after getting out of the bases-loaded, one-out jam, he settled down, allowing just a walk and a single off Kiner-Falefa’s glove for the rest of his night.

It was a good start from Cole. A much-needed start from Cole. He couldn’t go out and get lit up the way he had for a while, and couldn’t lay an egg at home against a Guardians team that doesn’t hit home runs and just scored three runs in 23-plus innings against the Rays in the wild-card series. He did his job and did it well.

5. All Harrison Bader has done since becoming a Yankee is do his job well. He has played the expected outstanding defense, but the bat that was an enormous worry has been exceptional, especially at the right time. The Yankees have missed the bottom-of-the-order guy who can provide a big hit at the right time (like Scott Brosius or a young Robinson Cano before he became a middle-of-the-order presence), and in his first postseason plate appearance as a Yankee, Bader tied the game with a solo home run off Quantrill in the third. Bader doesn’t belong hitting ninth in the lineup, but given all of the other lineup construction issues Boone has, batting Bader isn’t even the Top 10 problems. Because the Yankees won, the superstitious Boone will undoubtedly run the same lineup out there for Game 2.

6. I understand I’m in the minority of Yankees fans who obsess over the lineup, and as long as the Yankees win, like they did in Game 1, it won’t be discussed the way it should be. And it should be discussed because every aspect of the team should be optimized to the best of its possible ability. The organization employs strength trainers, mental trainers, nutritionists, sleep consultants and everyone and anyone who may help the players perform even the slightest bit better than they are capable. Yet something as important as lineup construction is just glossed over by the front office, manager and mainstream media. I don’t get it. At some point the Yankees won’t win with relative ease (like they did in Game 1) and may not win at all, and the lineup and order of batters will become a focal point of the postseason. It may not happen this series, but if the Yankees advance, you bet it will happen in the ALCS.

7. Overall, Boone had a solid night because he didn’t have to do much. He got a 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball from his starter and then asked his three best available relievers to get the final eight outs, which they did. Those are the kinds of games the Yankees need to have if they want to end their championship drought: games in which Boone isn’t involved once the game starts.

8. Anthony Rizzo’s two-run home run put the game away. I have never felt so comfortable with only a three-run lead in a postseason game, but as I sat in my seat at the Stadium on Tuesday night, once the Yankees took their first lead on the Trevino sac fly, it felt like the game was over. Cole had found his groove, the Guardians only mustered one mediocre rally against Jonathan Loaisiga that Loaisiga ended with a double play, and even knowing that the bullpen would have to get eight outs, I wasn’t worried after the 1-0 deficit became a 2-1 lead.

9. That’s the way it should be for the Yankees against the Guardians. Even with an inconsistent and depleted bullpen depleted, and even with DJ LeMahieu and Andrew Benintendi injured, and even with Carpenter on the bench, and even with the Yankees’ best shortstop not on the ALDS roster, the Yankees and Yankees fans shouldn’t be worried about the Guardians. They reached the postseason by being the best team from the worst division, and swept their wild-card series despite scoring a run every eight innings in it, as they have now scored four runs in 30-plus postseason innings, all via the home run.

10. Things can change. Nestor Cortes could be off in Game 2, or the offense could perform one of its disappearing acts against Shane Bieber. The same could happen when Luis Severino takes the mound in Game 3, or if Cole has to start again in this series. But things shouldn’t change in this series. The Yankees were better than the Guardians for six months. They were better than them when they played them head-to-head in the regular season, and they were better than them again in Game 1 with a less-than-perfect roster and lineup. I don’t expect that to change. I expect the Yankees to be playing baseball next week. I have always expected that. All Game 1 did was reinforce my expectations.

One down, 10 to go.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

The Yankees lost the first two games of their series against the Brewers over the weekend, but on Sunday they produced a comeback win to salvage the third game and Aaron Judge produced his 58th and 59th home runs of the season.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Aaron Judge is going to win the Triple Crown. Home runs and RBIs are a lock, and now he sits one point (.316) behind Luis Arraez (.317) for batting average. There is no doubt in my mind Judge is going to outhit Arraez (and Xander Bogaerts for that matter) over the final two-plus weeks of the season and complete the single greatest impending free-agent year of all time, and possibly the single greatest offensive year of all time.

I don’t need to hear what CC Sabathia and Phil Nevin think about who is the MVP in the American League. Shohei Ohtani might be the best player in the world, but he’s not the most valuable, not this season at least. Without Judge, the Yankees aren’t a postseason team (or on the wild-card bubble at best) and with him they are the second-best team in the AL, and on their way (as long as they don’t blow it over the final 16 games) to the 2-seed and a bye into the ALDS. The amount of games he has single-handedly won this season is absurd, and while his stats may be unbelievable from afar, if you watch this team every day, his season is even more amazing because you can truly appreciate just how important he has been with nearly every hit and home run being the difference or the only offense in games.

If WAR is what drove Ohtani to his MVP award a year ago, how can it not be used this season? All of a sudden it’s no longer the best indicator of who should win MVP because it doesn’t help the argument for Ohtani? I’m all set with hearing from Sabathia or Nevin or anyone on the MVP debate who doesn’t think it belongs to Judge because it’s not a debate. It’s not Judge or Ohtani. It’s Judge or no one.

2. After losing the first two games to the Brewers by blowing a five-run lead on Friday and then getting shut down offensively on Saturday, the Yankees bounced back with a win on Sunday to salvage the third game of the series. It was nice of Anthony Rizzo to grace the Yankees with his presence on Sunday in the win. Rizzo missed time in early July with back issues, missed a week in early August with back issues and returned on Sunday after three weeks away because of back issues and subsequent headaches caused by an epidural used to treat the back issues.

Rizzo had homered in the last two games he started at the end of August, but without a proper rehab assignment it seemed farfetched to think he would return without missing a beat, but that’s exactly what he did, going 3-for-6 with with a home run. Just seeing Rizzo’s name in the lineup gives the lineup more credibility, and most importantly, it forces a weak bat and fringe major-league bat out of it.

3. It also moved Giancarlo Stanton out of the 2-hole where he has struggled mightily, but had to hit because there is literally no other option on the team. Unless you want Josh Donaldson or Isiah Kiner-Falefa hitting there. (Sorry, that’s not even something to joke about since I’m sure Aaron Boone would love to have either of them in that spot.) Stanton went 0-for-the series (though he did draw one walk), striking out six times in his 14 plate appearances, including a Golden Sombrero (four strikeouts) on Saturday. It was his second Golden Sombrero in his last three games, as he also picked one up in Boston on Wednesday.

Stanton has two home runs since July 15 and one of them came off a position player pitching in a blowout. So he has one home run since July 15, and is hitting .130/.239/.234 since then in 88 plate appearances. When Stanton is unproductive, he hurts the lineup double. He becomes a roster problem because he will bat in an important spot in the order despite being unproductive and because of he Yankees’ unwillingness to play him in the field ( even though he always performs better at the plate when he’s also in the game defensively). he clogs up the designated hitter spot. The Yankees have unsuccessfully tried in the past to keep Stanton healthy by limiting him to being a full-time DH. He has gotten injured whether he’s only playing the game offensively or not, so it’s time to put him back him in the field, and if he gets hurt, so be it. The only way to keep him healthy is to have him not play baseball.

Unfortunately, Stanton isn’t going to play the field again this season. Boone has said there’s no plan to have him play the outfield at this time, and at this time, it’s September 19 and there are 16 games left in the season. Add in Harrison Bader possibly playing in an actual major-league game for the Yankees on Tuesday night at the Stadium, and that’s that for Stanton playing the field. If anything, the Yankees would stick him in the small-ish Yankee Stadium right field with Judge in center. But Bader finally playing means Judge goes back to right, and there’s no way the Yankees are going to have Stanton in the Stadium’s vast left field. That’s why they had Oswaldo Cabrera practicing the position prior to the games over the weekend.

4. I have no doubt Cabrera will play a fine left field. He continues to excel at positions he has little to no experience playing and he’s excelling in it at the major-league level. It’s pretty remarkable. Cabrera went 5-for-10 with four walks over the weekend and is no 9-for-27 with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs in his last seven games. The bat is starting to catch up to his defense and there’s no way right now he can be removed from the lineup given his production and versatility. I expect he will be the team’s left fielder come Game 1 of the ALDS if Andrew Benintendi doesn’t return.

5. Ideally, the Yankees will have too many players for not enough positions if everyone gets and stays healthy before the postseason. Rizzo is now back. Bader is supposed to make his Yankee debut on Tuesday. Benintendi, DJ LeMahieu and Matt Carpenter are still working their way back. But if those three do return, the Yankees will have the following players for eight lineup spots:

Anthony Rizzo
DJ LeMahieu
Gleyber Torres
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Josh Donaldson
Oswaldo Cabrera
Andrew Benintendi
Harrison Bader
Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton
Matt Carpenter

Three of those 11 would have to be on the bench. Rizzo and Judge aren’t going to the bench. The Yankees didn’t trade for Benintendi to not play him, and they didn’t give away Jordan Montgomery to not play Bader. Stanton is the highest-paid position player on the team and under contract for 37 more years, so he’s not going to the bench. That leaves LeMahieu, Torres, Kiner-Falefa, Donaldson, Cabrera and Carpenter for three spots. If you read this site or these Yankees Thoughts often, you know which three I’m sending to the bench.

(I didn’t include Oswald Peraza on this list because he’s already on the bench as the Yankees continue to stunt his development.)

6. I think the Yankees want both Kiner-Falefa (at shortstop) and Bader (in center field) in the lineup, which is as regrettable a decision as giving Aaron Hicks a seven-year contract extension. That duo plus Jose Trevino would give the Yankees as weak a 7-8-9 as any postseason lineup could ever have, and they would be trying to win the World Series with one-third of their lineup being essentially three automatic outs against the pitching they will see in the postseason. The last time the Yankees won the World Series in 2009, their 7-8-9 was Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner. Cano hit .320 that year with 25 home runs and an .871 OPS. Swisher hit 29 home runs with, drew 97 walks and had an .869 OPS. Gardner was the weakest bat on the team and still had a .345 on-base percentage and a .724 OPS. Trevino has a .682 OPS, Kiner-Falefa a .652 and Bader a .673.

7. I guess we’ll get to the bridge of too many players for not enough spots when we get to it. Hopefully, it doesn’t become a 2006 situation in which the team is having Stanton learn to play first base for the postseason like they did for Gary Sheffield because there was no place to put Sheffield with Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi at other positions. For now, the return of Rizzo means no more Marwin Gonzalez at first base and the return of Bader should mean the end of Hicks getting playing time (though I’m sure Boone already has a plan mapped out to get Hicks an unbelievable amount of at-bats over these last 16 games.)

8. The Yankees’ improving health isn’t only for the offense. The rotation will get Luis Severino back this week for the firs time since mid-July and it couldn’t come at a better time with Frankie Montas pitching like Javier Vazquez and making excuses like Sonny Gray. (I wrote all about Montas’ disastrous Yankees tenure to date on Sunday.) Montas has been bad (and delusional) and now he’s hurt, so he has been a total zero for the Yankees since being acquired. He’s actually less than zero since they traded JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk for him and could have either used those two arms themselves or used them in another deal at the deadline or another deal this offseason and they gave away Jordan Montgomery because they acquired Montas. Instead they are stuck with Montas for next season as well.

9. Severino is either going to be the Yankees’ Game 2 starter or their Game 3 starter with Nestor Cortes being the other. Gerrit Cole is going to be the Game 1 starter, and I have about as much faith in him pitching well on October 11 at Yankee Stadium as a I do with Boone making logical and sensible lineup and bullpen decisions in the postseason. Cole was once again atrocious on Sunday, giving up multiple home runs and needing 94 pitches to get through five innings.

It’s hard to hear the narrative that Cole “only gave up four hits” or that “he made one or two mistakes” when half of those hits left the park and the one or two mistakes went over the fence. It’s one thing to allow a solo home run here and there, but Cole isn’t doing that and now leads the league in home runs allowed. Guess what kind of teams he will face in the playoffs? Ones that hit home runs. If the Yankees plan on getting out of the ALDS for the first time in three years, they are likely going to have to get by the Astors or Blue Jays at some point to keep their season alive. Cole can’t be “good” against either of those teams. He has to be great because their starting pitching will be against the Yankees.

10. A little over a week ago, the division lead was in serious trouble. The Yankees were on the verge of completing the worst game-lead collapse in baseball history before stabilizing the division lead last weekend. Four days ago, the division lead was once again safe. But after losing two of three to the Brewers coupled with the Blue Jays winning two of three from the Orioles, the division lead, while still stable, isn’t exactly comforting at 5 1/2.

There are only 16 games left on the schedule for the Yankees, which is why Fangraphs gives them a 96.5 percent chance to win division. But it’s hard to believe in the math behind division odds when I watched the Yankees’ 15 1/2-game lead fall to two games in the loss column a little over a week ago.

On Tuesday, the Yankees begin a six-game homestand against the last-place Pirates and the last-place Red Sox. They are set up to put the division just about away by Sunday and render their upcoming three-game series against the Blue Jays meaningless. Judge is also set up to break Roger Maris’ Yankees and AL home run record if he can hit three home runs in the next six games.

This week has a chance to be special all around. Don’t screw it up.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!