Yankees – Page 133 – Keefe To The City

Sep 3, 2019

Yankees’ Postseason Rotation Power Rankings: Second Edition

The Yankees’ postseason rotation won’t be decided for a few weeks, but it’s time to figure out what it will look like with a month to go.

The first edition of the Yankees’ Postseason Rotation Power Rankings was on July 23. Back then, trading for Madison Bumgarner seemed more realistic than Luis Severino returning this season and finding anyone to follow Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German in the rotation seemed impossible.

My postseason rotation hasn’t changed over the last six weeks, but it’s getting close to. James Paxton is pitching like the front-end starter the Yankees thought they traded for and Severino came out of his first rehab start in Triple-A without any issues. The third edition could see drastic changes depending on how the next two weeks go.

These power rankings will be updated frequently between now and the end of the regular season. They are based on a combination of personal preference, recent performance and historical performance. This rotation is based on the current 25-man roster and is created under the assumption the players on the injured list won’t be available for the postseason.

Game 1: Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19
Masahiro Tanaka could pitch to a 15.10 ERA for the rest of the season and I would still give him the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS. Tanaka has proven his worth in the postseason in three different postseasons now with the worst of his five starts being two earned runs over five innings in a game the Yankees were never going to score in let alone win (2015 AL Wild-Card Game against Dallas Keuchel).

Last October, Tanaka was the only Yankees starter to pitch well in the four games against the Red Sox (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 HR), and had he pitched Game 1, I might be writing about the Yankees looking to become the first team since 2000 to win back-to-back championships. In 2017, he allowed two earned runs in 13 innings in the ALCS to the eventual champion Astros and shut out the Indians over seven innings in Game 3 of the ALDS to save the season and kickstart the Yankees’ improbable comeback over the Indians.

Advanced metrics suggest Tanaka has been the same pitcher in the postseason as the regular season, with a little more luck, while his postseason success has been attributed to a small sample size. Well, the postseason is a small sample size. At most, a team could play 20 games, and in the Yankees’ case, the most games they could play this October is 19. Jobs, careers, salaries, memories and legacies are built on the small sample size of the postseason, and so far, Tanaka has been outstanding (30 IP, 17 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 7 BB, 25 K, 3 HR, 1.50 ERA, 0.800 WHIP). Same regular-season FIP or not, he’s getting the ball in Game 1.

Game 2: Number 55, Domingo German, Number 55
Do I trust Domingo German in a postseason start? Not particularly. But outside of Tanaka, it’s hard to trust any of the current available starting options. As of now, German’s going to get a postseason start and will be asked to get 12 outs, which makes things a lot easier to stomach. If he’s going to get a start, it has to be at home.

German at home:
61.1 IP, 44 H, 17 R, 16 R, 17 BB, 74K, 10 HR, 2.35 ERA, 0.995 WHIP

German on the road:
71 IP, 75 H, 47 R, 43 ER, 16 BB, 67 K, 19 HR, 5.45 ERA, 1.282 WHIP

There’s still the chance the Yankees shut down German as a starter for the rest of the season at some point or screw with his routine and off days to the point that it messes him up, the way they have with so many other young starters to try and prevent injuries that eventually happened anyway. If the Yankees allow German to pitch uninterrupted for the remainder of the season and they win the World Series and he never pitches again, he did his job. His job is to pitch for the New York Yankees. The Yankees’ job is to win the World Series. The goal isn’t to grow careers. The goal is to win. Sadly, the Yankees’ effort to achieve this goal for the last decade hasn’t been what it once was.

Game 3: Number 65, James Paxton, Number 65
After the first edition of these rankings, Paxton went out and got rocked by the Red Sox (4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 4 HR) and his ERA rose to 4.72. But since getting embarrassed in Boston, Paxton hasn’t lost, winning six straight for an undefeated August after the Yankees lost all five of his July starts.

Over this six-game winning streak, opposing hitters are batting .192/.271/.344 against Paxton as he beat two wild-card race teams in the Red Sox and Indians and dominated the National League-best Dodgers on the road. He’s looked like the pitcher I thought the Yankees traded for and not the pitcher who gave them four-plus months of mediocrity to begin the season.

I actually trust Paxton more than German right now, but since German is going to get a postseason start, it should be at home, which pushes Paxton to Game 3 on the road. Paxton has also been worse on the road than he has been at Yankee Stadium, but I trust him more to get comfortable, adapt and adjust wherever Game 3 is because I don’t have to.

Game 4: Number 57, Chad Green, Number 57
When Severino comes back and proves he’s healthy, the opener will fall off as a postseason starter. But until then, I’m giving the ball to Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and hopefully Dellin Betances to piece together 27 outs. There’s absolutely no way CC Sabathia can start a postseason game, and it’s comical to think J.A. Happ is going to be on the postseason roster, let alone given the ball for an October game. That leaves the opener strategy as the only available option.

Green hasn’t opened a game since August 15 against the Indians (0.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HR). He has worked strictly as a reliever since then, holding batters to a .394 OPS for 7 1/3 innings.

My preference would be to have Green go one inning and maybe two innings depending on how he looked in the first inning. Then I would go right to the bullpen. I don’t care that you’re asking the bullpen to possibly get 24 outs. Worry about the next game when you get there.

This season, Green has either been dominant or a disaster with very little in between. He’s either looked like he did in 2017 or given up a crooked number while only getting an out or two. The opener plan with Green starting the game is far from a guarantee, but you could say that about all of the Yankees’ starting pitching options for the postseason.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Blogs • Off Day Dreaming • Yankees

Aug 29, 2019

Off Day Dreaming: If Healthy, Yankees Will Have Hard Postseason Personnel Decisions

If the Yankees ever get completely healthy, there’s going to be a lot of debate about the postseason roster, lineup and rotation. They’re going to have to win the World Series to avoid a litany of second-guessing.

The Yankees started their nine-game West Coast trip by getting swept by the A’s. They turned an 0-3 start into a 5-1 finish by taking two out of three from the Dodgers (and could have taken all three if not for an egregious umpiring decision) and sweeping the Mariners. The Yankees return home with the best record in baseball despite not having played a single game at full strength this season.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees on this off day as usual.

1. As much as I want the Yankees to win home-field advantage for the American League playoffs (and a potential World Series), and as much as I think they need to have home-field advantage to beat the Astros in a potential ALCS matchup, I don’t think they’re going to win home-field advantage. It’s not because they’re not good enough, it’s because their remaining schedule and the Astros’ remaining schedule suggest they won’t.

One-third of the Yankees’ remaining 27 games will be against teams fighting for a wild-card berth (Oakland, Boston and Tampa Bay), while the Astros’ only remaining games against any team with a real postseason chance is a four-game series against the A’s. Unfortunately, if the Yankees and Astros meet in the ALCS, the Yankees are going to have to win at least one game in Houston — something they were unable to do in the 2017 ALCS — and one game against either Justin Verlander (Game 1), Gerrit Cole (Games 2 and 6) or Zack Greinke (Game 7). If the Yankees are going to beat any of those three in the postseason, they’re most likely going to have to win the way they did in Los Angeles: with the home run.

2. The Yankees took two out of three from the Dodgers by hitting home runs against Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw. With the nearly impossible task of stringing together multiple base hits against elite pitching, the Yankees were able to use their home run prowess to defeat the NL All-Star Game starter and ERA leader on Friday and the best pitcher of his generation on Sunday. It’s part of the formula the Yankees are going to need to win in October: home runs + five innings from the starter + 12 outs from the bullpen.

I had a lot of Dodgers fans and in-laws in Los Angeles tell me how impressed they were by the Yankees since they don’t get to watch them much. The majority of those fans and in-laws also felt like the Yankees would beat the Dodgers if the two teams were to meet in the World Series. While that made me happy, it doesn’t mean anything other than to know Dodgers fans are petrified of having to play the Yankees and possibly lose a third straight World Series.

3. After dominating the Dodgers in the series opener and then beating the Mariners in Seattle without his best stuff, James Paxton has now recorded a win in six straight starts, finishing August a perfect 6-0 (after the Yankees lost all five of his starts in July) with this line: 35.1 IP, 24 H, 14 R, 14 ER, 14 BB, 39 K, 5 HR, 3.57 ERA, 1.076 WHIP.

In my yet-to-be-updated Postseason Rotation Power Rankings from July 23, I gave Paxton the Game 3 start in the ALDS with Masahiro Tanaka getting Game 1 and Domingo German getting Game 2. I think I’m ready to give Paxton at least Game 2.

But the reason I haven’t updated the rankings yet is because I have been waiting on more and more information on Luis Severino.

4. Severino is going to make his first rehab start of the season on Sunday in Triple-A. As long as he stays healthy and keeps progressing, we’ll likely see Severino pitching for the Yankees in mid-September, giving him a little more than two weeks of the regular season to get ready for October.

If Severino does stay healthy and returns as his usual self, it changes everything about the Postseason Rotation Power Rankings. He could be anywhere as high as the Game 1 starter to a long reliever to a middle reliever in the postseason. I want him back as a starter, but Severino in any role is better than no Severino at all.

5. It wasn’t even two weeks ago when Aaron Judge’s 2-spot in the order was being questioned. Over the last 11 games, Judge is hitting .383/.408/.872 with five doubles, six home runs and 10 RBIs, quieting all of his critics who wondered where his power and pull power went. It’s good to have one of the best players in the world back to being one of the best players in the world. It’s even better that he’s back entering the final month of the season.

6. Maybe Gary Sanchez was playing through an injury for a while which eventually led to his late-July/early-August injured-list stint. In 17 games since returning from IL, Sanchez has six home runs and 11 RBIs and a .917 OPS, hitting his 100th career home run and 30th home run in the process. I’m sure Sanchez will always provide us with frustrating moments and painful-to-watch slumps, but he’ll also always provide us with streaks like the one he’s currently on, and for that, he’s irreplaceable.

7. There was an article on MLB.com the other day citing a storyline to watch for each team over the last month of the season. The Yankees’ storyline was getting J.A. Happ back on track and the article said he might not get a postseason start as of now and would be pitching out of the bullpen in October. Clearly, the author rarely watches the Yankees.

No, J.A. Happ won’t be getting a postseason start, and there’s a better chance of David Cone pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason than there is Happ. It would take an abundance of injuries for Happ to even be on the postseason roster at this point. Some very worthy players who have helped the Yankees to the best record in baseball aren’t going to be on the postseason roster, let alone Happ, who has done very little to help the 2019 Yankees get to where they are and has done more harm than good. Happ has a month and say five-or-so starts of five innings and three earned runs or more left in his season.

8. This week the Yankees said they would “probably” call up Clint Frazier on September 1. “Probably”? If Frazier isn’t on the Yankees on September 1 then this whole thing will be taken to another level of ridiculous and the Yankees will no longer be able to hide behind the idea that he’s working on his defense in Triple-A or that he doesn’t fit on the current roster.

9. If the Yankees ever get completely healthy and get Severino, Dellin Betances, Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks all back, there’s going to be a lot of debate about the postseason roster, the postseason lineup and the postseason rotation. It’s likely that if everyone is healthy, Gio Urshela could be on the bench in the postseason as well as Brett Gardner and either Luke Voit or Edwin Encarnacion. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series, there’s going to be a lot of room for second-guessing the lineup, rotation and roster decisions which were made.

10. In the Off Day Dreaming on August 1, I said my expected record for the Yankees for August (by expected record, I mean a record I would be content with them having) is 17-13. Well, as of today, they are 20-8, so at worst, they are going to finish the month three games better than my expected record.

My expected record for the Yankees in September is 15-10. If they win of the two remaining games in August against Oakland, and meet my expected record expectations for September, they would finish the season 104-58, four games better than their 2018 record.

Now this October just needs to go better than October 2018.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 26, 2019

Yankees-Dodgers Weekend Was First True Test of My Marriage

My wife and I traveled to her native Los Angeles for the first West Coast Yankees-Dodgers meeting in six years. Because of the occasion and World Series potential, it made sense to recap it all in an email exchange.

Six years ago, I did a Yankees-Dodgers email exchange with my then-girlfriend Brittni Michaelis. The teams played a pair of two-games series in the Bronx and Los Angeles and we attended the entire four-game season series. The last time the two teams met in Los Angeles, the Yankees’ lineup included Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano and Alfonso Soriano as well as Vernon Wells, Brent Lillibridge, Jayson Nix and Chris Stewart.

A lot has changed since my first trip to Dodger Stadium in August 2013, including my then-girlfriend Brittni Michaelis becoming my now-wife and Brittni Keefe this June in New York City. But one thing hasn’t changed: neither team has won a championship.

For the third straight season, there’s a very real possibility the Yankees and Dodgers could meet in the World Series. The Yankees failed to hold up their end of the bargain the last two seasons, while the Dodgers ended up losing both World Series. This past weekend in Los Angeles, we got somewhat of a preview of what a World Series between the two teams would look like.

Brittni and I traveled back to her native Los Angeles for the first West Coast meeting between the teams since our last email exchange. Because of the momentous occasion and their possible postseason reunion, it only made sense to recap the Yankees’ series win in another email exchange.

Neil: Who knew all it would take for Aaron Judge to come out of his slump was a weekend against the team with the best record in baseball, and a couple of games against the National League All-Star Game starting pitcher and the best pitcher of his generation and possibly the best pitcher of all time? I would like to thank the Dodgers for turning Judge back into Judge for the final 30 games of the season leading into the postseason.

And who knew all it would take for James Paxton to realize his potential and find himself for the first time in more than four months would be a game against the NL’s top run-scoring offense and the best home team in the majors? I would also like to thank the Dodgers for potentially turning Paxton’s season around and giving the Yankees a comfort and confidence boost for their postseason rotation.

Despite winning two out of three (and what might have been a sweep if not for the most egregious umpiring decision of the season), the Yankees getting their 2-hitter back on track for the final the month of the season and getting a dominant performance from their potential Game 1, 2 or 3 postseason starter was just as important as trimming the Dodgers’ home-field advantage lead to one game. Thank you, Dodgers. After taking on all the Red Sox’ bad contracts seven years ago and then putting together an embarrassing performance against the Red Sox in the World Series last year, you have finally done something to help the Yankees.

It was a near-perfect weekend in Los Angeles. The only things that prevented it from being perfect were the Players Weekend uniforms and the ninth-inning umpiring on Saturday.

Brittni: I only wish the Dodgers could have played the Yankees when they didn’t have a 20-game division lead and didn’t have a significant lead for the best record in the National League. Maybe then Dave Roberts would have managed to win and the series could have had a different outcome. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough In-N-Out or Micheladas to cure my baseball hangover from the weekend.

Hyun-jin Ryu’s performance on Friday was the real Ryu that Dodgers fans have come to know. The second you expect greatness from him, he lets you down. Fatigue is being cited as the reason for his performance on Friday night, but what do you expect? It’s late August and he’s pitched more innings this season than he has in any season in five years.

As for Kershaw, I can’t say enough about him and won’t say anything bad about him. He is the Dodgers. He pitched well and more than good enough to win on Sunday (7 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 12 K, 3 HR), but he got beat by three solo home runs because his offense didn’t show up, which pretty much summarizes his entire career. Everyone expects a complete-game shutout from him when he starts because he’s set the bar so high over the last decade, and when he doesn’t, he gets unfairly criticized. Kershaw has had to be near-perfect to win for most of his Dodgers career and Sunday was another example of that.

Neil: I have been fearful of the Yankees and Dodgers meeting in the World Series this season and the Dodgers ending their 30-year championship drought and you getting the first Dodgers championship of your lifetime at my expense. Not only that, but after losing to the Astros and Red Sox in back-to-back World Series, it’s supposed to be the Yankees’ turn of the AL powerhouses to win a championship against the Dodgers, so it would be more than painful if they lose to the Dodgers. I have been fearful of that possible outcome because of the Dodgers’ dominant starting pitching, but after this weekend, I’m no longer fearful. Starting pitching is all the Dodgers have going for them and with the now right-handed heavy Yankees lineup, left-handed starting pitching no longer matches up well against them in the postseason.

When it comes to the Dodgers’ offense, I laugh at those who think it’s top-notch because of the numbers they see on paper and the stats they have padded against the crappy NL West where the second-best team is the .500 Giants. As someone who stays up late each night watching the Dodgers with you, and someone who has lost many, many times on inflated Dodgers money lines, I know the real Dodgers offense and it sucks.

As for the Dodgers’ bullpen, unless Kenley Jansen finds his cutter, who is getting important outs for them in October? Joe Kelly?! Pedro Baez?! Yimi Garcia?!

How could you or any Dodgers fan feel good about this roster?

Brittni: It was three games and the smallest of sample sizes. You aren’t scared of the best starting pitching in baseball? You’re taking crazy pills. You should be petrified. The Yankees’ bats will be silenced this October like they were last October and in Games 6 and 7 the previous October when they were one win away from playing the Dodgers in the World Series.

I’m not the biggest fan of this roster, but I don’t have a choice. The front office refused to make any moves at the deadline, so this is what I’m stuck with. I’m not sure this roster has what it takes to finally win the World Series, though if they get a couple of breaks in the postseason, like the one in the ninth inning on Saturday, they could.

The Dodgers are going to be able to coast through September, rest their everyday players and allow their pitchers to get their work in as needed. You might not be scared of the Dodgers’ starting pitching in a potential World Series matchup, but you should be scared of the Yankees’ starting pitching for the entire postseason. Even with Paxton and Domingo German shutting down the Dodgers and giving you comfort and confidence, do you really trust them? Or Masahiro Tanaka or CC Sabathia or J.A. Happ? If Luis Severino doesn’t come back and come back as his usual self, you better stock up on your lifetime “Ladies and gentleman” immunity passes for Twitter. You’re going to need them.

Neil: I don’t feel good about the rotation, but I don’t need them to pitch seven-plus innings in the postseason like you need Kershaw, Ryu and Walker Buehler to. I just need them to get through four innings and get 12 outs with either a lead or a close game. Then it’s 15 outs from Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and hopefully the best reliever in baseball: Dellin Betances.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers are probably going to have the best record in baseball this season and have home-field advantage for a potential World Series meeting. Aside from five games against the Rays and Mets, the Dodgers don’t have another game against a team with a winning record this season. Ladies and gentlemen, the NL West! So if the Yankees and Dodgers do meet again, it will be on Tuesday, Oct. 22 in Los Angeles for Game 1 of the World Series.

Don’t worry, if the Yankees end up winning the World Series, whether it’s against the Dodgers or another team, I will still let you have some champagne since I will need someone to celebrate with, and you can still attend the parade with me, since I will need someone to take pictures.

I would say I would do the same for you if the Dodgers win the World Series, but we’re talking about a team whose manager batted a career .242 hitter third in the World Series, didn’t start Cody Bellinger or Max Muncy in postseason games because of left-handed starters and kept using the same middle reliever in high-leverage situations in the World Series even though he allowed every inherited runner to score in the series. As long as Roberts is the manager of the Dodgers, I don’t think I have to worry about them ending their World Series drought.

If there’s no World Series meeting between the Yankees and Dodgers, we’ll have to do this in 2022 when the teams meet again. Maybe by then Andrew Friedman will have built a bullpen for you and Brian Cashman will have built a rotation for me.

Brittni: Roberts might be the only thing we have ever agreed on regarding the Dodgers. As long as he’s in charge, my path and the Dodgers’ path to a championship is impeded.

Roberts is a very zen, Cali-forn-i-a-style manager. He isn’t scary, he never gets upset and it’s very “Yeah, bro … life is good … I live in sunny SoCal where it’s always 70 degrees” with him. I need heat, I need passion, I need a manager who is fearful. I need this because in the last two years I’ve watched the Dodgers lose back-to-back World Series and it a lot of it had to with Roberts’ in-game decisions and his nonchalant demeanor after the losses.

We may be getting ahead of ourselves when it comes to a Dodgers-Yankees World Series meeting. I know you don’t believe in jinxes, but they do exist. A Dodgers-Yankees World Series didn’t work out the last two years and the Astros and Braves could easily prevent it from happening again. It would be great to finally get this matchup and it would be even greater to have it go seven games, it’s just that a lot of things need to happen to get there.

I’d like to think we are older and wiser now since our last email exchange six years ago, but we placed a bet in which the loser of the weekend series has to eat two Dodger dogs from the ampm store. It makes me wonder what our bet will be if our teams do end up playing each other in the World Series.

But the more and more I think about it, I’m not sure I want a World Series against you, let alone one that goes seven games. If the Dodgers were to lose, you would hang that over my head for our entire marriage. I thought the rides home from Dodger Stadium on Friday and Sunday nights were bad enough, I don’t know how I would handle a Yankees championship at the expense of the Dodgers and a championship for you at the expense of me.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Blogs • Yankees

Aug 22, 2019

2019 J.A. Happ Has Been Every Bit as Bad as 2018 Sonny Gray

Last season, Sonny Gray was every bit as bad as J.A. Happ has been this season. So why is it that Happ continues to start games, while Gray was removed from the rotation and eventually traded?

Between his disastrous starts, inability to adjust and unwillingness to take responsibility or be accountable for his own pitching, Sonny Gray wasn’t going to work out in New York.

When you combine Gray’s time with the Yankees for the last two months of 2017 and first four months of 2018, he was only given the equivalent of one full season for the Yankees to determine he wasn’t a fit for New York. After he was removed from the rotation, Brian Cashman openly admitted he was looking to move Gray right up until the day he was finally traded. Cashman said, “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results” in regards to holding on to Gray for 2019 and beyond, so eventually, he dealt him to the Reds.

There’s a reason why the Yankees gave up three of their better prospects at the time for Gray and there’s a reason why the team let him start Game 1 of the 2017 ALDS and Game 4 of the 2017 ALCS. There’s a reason so many teams were connected to him this past offseason and why the Reds ultimately decided to trade for him and give him a $30.5 million extension upon acquiring him, completely disregarding his awful 2018 season. And there’s a reason why David Ortiz said the following about Gray back in 2015:

“The last few seasons, the toughest guy I’ve faced is Sonny Gray from Oakland. This kid’s stuff is legit … the first time I see this Gray kid on the mound, I can’t help but notice he’s 5’10” and skinny. He looks like the guy who fixes my computer at the Apple Store. I’m thinking, Here we go. This is gonna be fun. Then he took me for a ride, man. Fastball. Sinker. Slider. Curve … Whap. Whap. Whap. You have no idea what this kid is going to throw. He drives me crazy.”

The reason for all these things is because Gray has the ability, talent, stuff and repertoire to be a perennial Cy Young candidate. The pitcher Ortiz was talking about is the one who pitched to a 2.88 ERA over 491 innings in his first three seasons in the league and who shut out the Tigers over eight innings in Game 2 of the 2013 ALDS. That’s the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting. That’s the pitcher I thought the Yankees were getting.

Last August, the Yankees pulled the plug on Gray as a starter after his embarrassing start against the eventual 47-win Orioles sent the Yankees into a downward spiral heading into their eventual four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox in Boston. When the Yankees finally had enough, Gray had pitched to the following line through 21 starts: 103.2 IP, 112 H, 65 R, 64 ER, 46 BB, 99 K, 13 HR, 5.64 ERA, 1.524 WHIP.

In his first season with the Reds, Gray has returned to the pitcher he was with the A’s, the pitcher the Yankees thought they were trading for. An All-Star for the first time in four years, Gray has a 2.92 ERA in 25 starts, a career-low hits-per-nine innings (6.6) and a career-high strikeouts-per-nine innings (10.6). Outside of New York, Gray has been the young, durable and controllable front-end starter Cashman has failed so many times to trade for in over decades, but while in New York, Gray was every bit as bad as J.A. Happ has been this season.

Once again, on Wednesday night, Happ put the Yankees in an early hole they were unable to climb out of, and for the 19th time in 25 starts, he failed to go six innings, something he has done once since June 6. Happ lasted only four innings in Oakland, giving up another pair of home runs, and making it now nearly a month since he provided the Yankees with one of his six quality starts.

Only a few times has Happ looked like the pitcher who went 9-0 in 11 starts for the Yankees after the deadline last season as he’s mostly looked like a soon-to-be, 37-year-old with a low-90s fastball whose only chance at success is with pinpoint control. In a season in which 20 percent of his starts have come against the Orioles, you would think his overall numbers would be somewhat respectable, but he has a 6.85 ERA against the team on pace to win 52 games. Here’s Happ’s season line after Wednesday’s loss:

129 IP, 141 H, 79 R, 79 ER, 37 BB, 105 K, 31 HR, 5.51 ERA, 1.380 WHIP.

Look familiar? Again, here’s Sonny Gray’s line when the Yankees pulled him from the rotation:

103.2 IP, 112 H, 65 R, 64 ER, 46 BB, 99 K, 13 HR, 5.64 ERA, 1.524 WHIP.

Happ has a better walk rate and a slightly better ERA, but his strikeouts-per-nine innings are lower and his home run rate is absurd. The lines are similar and everything about their seasons has been as well. So why is it that Happ continues to get the ball every fifth day, while Gray was banished to the bullpen and then dealt to Cincinnati with his value at an all-time low?

The answer can’t be because Happ’s under contract for next season because so was Gray, who was under contract for less money, is seven years younger than Happ and still has a future. The Yankees gave up on Gray for good after one calendar year and with two months left in the season, yet there haven’t been any rumors, whispers, rumblings or inklings of Happ losing his rotation spot.

The answer can’t be because there aren’t other starting options because going with an opener two days a week is better than Happ once a week, and there wasn’t any depth last season when Gray was removed either. When the Yankees stopped letting Gray start, they didn’t have pitching depth to turn to and had yet to steal the Rays’ opener strategy. But they still made the move knowing they would be taxing their bullpen and starting pitchers with much less ability and much weaker career resumes than Gray.

The answer can’t be because the division is locked up because home-field advantage is every bit as important as the division. The most likely scenario in the AL playoffs is a Yankees-Astros ALCS. They are going to be the 1- and 2-seeds and they are the two best teams in the league. Two years ago in the ALCS, the Astros went 4-0 at home and the Yankees went 3-0 at home. The Astros outscored the Yankees 15-3 in Houston and the Yankees outscored the Astros 19-5 in New York. This season the Astros are 45-16 at home and the Yankees are 49-20 at home, the best two home records in the AL. At the same time the Astros were about to lose on Wednesday night and give the Yankees a chance to create further separation in the standings, Happ was busy giving two-run home runs in the second and third innings in the eventual loss. The Yankees might have the division won, but the goal isn’t to win the division, it’s to win the World Series, and unless the Yankees have home-field advantage in the playoffs, that goal is going to be nearly impossible to accomplish.

Happ brings no value to the team right now. He’s not eating innings, he’s not keeping the team in games and he’s not working toward anything like a postseason start. There’s no way Happ can get a postseason start. No way. I would rather watch Luis Cessa get the ball in the postseason or have Cessa team up with Nestor Cortes for the first few innings of a playoff game than watch Happ ruin an October game for the second straight year.

The Yankees gave up on Gray for the season in 2018 and then gave up on him for good before 2019. The Yankees aren’t going to give up on Happ for good because of the money he’s owed, his stock being at an all-time low and him simply being untradeable given his age and contract. But they should give up on him for the season.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!

Blogs • Off Day Dreaming • Yankees

Aug 19, 2019

Off Day Dreaming: Yankees Only Have to Worry About Home-Field Advantage and Health

It’s going to be difficult to come out of the American League playoffs this season, but it’s going to be nearly impossible if the Yankees aren’t the No. 1 seed and don’t have home-field advantage throughout.

There’s less than six weeks left in the Yankees’ season. On Tuesday, the Yankees will begin their third-to-last road trip and last trip to the West Coast of the season.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees on this off day as usual.

1. The division has been long over. It’s been over for nearly two months now. But if anyone out there is still worried …

The Yankees are 83-43. If they play .500 for the rest of the regular season and go 18-18 in their final 36 games, they will finish with a 101-61 record. The Rays would have to go 28-9 to tie them and the Red Sox would have to go 34-2. The question isn’t if the Yankees win the division, it’s when, and the sooner the better to rest their position players and line up their rotation accordingly.

2. At least the last two weeks of the season are going to be meaningless from a division standpoint, but they are going to mean everything from a home-field advantage standpoint. It’s going to be difficult to come out of the American League playoffs this season, but it’s going to be nearly impossible if the Yankees aren’t the No. 1 seed and don’t have home-field advantage throughout.

The most likely scenario in the AL playoffs is a Yankees-Astros ALCS. They are going to be the 1- and 2-seeds and they are the two best teams in the league. Two years ago in the ALCS, the Astros went 4-0 at home and the Yankees went 3-0 at home. The Astros outscored the Yankees 15-3 in Houston and the Yankees outscored the Astros 19-5 in New York. This season the Astros are 43-15 at home and the Yankees are 49-20 at home, the best two home records in the AL. Home-field advantage matters, especially in this postseason, and the Yankees can’t take their foot off the gas once they clinch the division. The goal is to win the World Series, and having home-field advantage will greatly increase their chances of accomplishing that goal.

3. CC Sabathia wasn’t good again on Sunday in his return from his second injured-list stint. He gave up four earned runs on four hits and three walks in three innings, including a three-run home run. He was on a limited pitch count and was pulled after 67 pitches.

Why is Sabathia on a pitch count? He’s retiring at the end of the season and has roughly six regular-season starts left in his career. There’s absolutely no way he can be given a postseason start unless the Yankees didn’t learn their lesson from last season and want to relive that misery. So Sabathia’s six-or-so remaining regular-season starts are the last of his career. There’s no need to protect his arm for October or for 2020. He’s done after Game 162. There’s no need for him to save pitches for retirement or leave anything in the tank. When it’s his turn to start, let him pitch until he wants to come out of the game. Let him eat innings, so I don’t have to watch Nestor Cortes or Luis Cessa anymore.

4. When it comes to the postseason rotation, Sabathia isn’t the only one who can’t get a start. J.A. Happ can’t either. That means the Yankees’ postseason starting pitcher option are currently: Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German, James Paxton or an opener.

I haven’t updated the Yankees’ Postseason Rotation Power Rankings since July 23 because they remain the same. Tanaka in Game 1, German in Game 2, Paxton in Game 3 and an opener in Game 4. The only way that will change is if Luis Severino comes back.

5. I’m getting more and more excited that Severino is going to return. I realize any setback now means his season is over with only five-plus weeks left in the regular season, but he threw off a mound over the weekend and said he felt great and is now very, very close to pitching in rehab games. Because of the end to the minor-league regular season in a couple weeks, it’s likely Severino will pitch a couple of games in the minors and then really build up his pitch count with the Yankees.

If Severino were to come back as his old self, to me, he would be the Game 1 starter in the postseason. But I could see the Yankees starting Tanaka in that game no matter what, given his postseason success (1.50 ERA in five starts) and having Severino pitch the second game. Either way, Severino is seeming more and more like an actual option this October, which will make me feel a lot better about the Yankees’ rotation and chances in the postseason.

6. The return of Dellin Betances is as important as the return of Severino. Aroldis Chapman is going to pitch the ninth inning no matter what, but I have trust issues with Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino, and I don’t have any trust in Zack Britton. Betances was the best reliever in baseball for the last five years before this season-ruining injury, and I expect him to be the same Betances once he returns. That pushes everyone down in the bullpen pecking order and takes some of the high-leverage situations away from those who have trouble navigating them.

The Yankees are 40 games over .500, going to win the division with at least two weeks left in the season and could win the World Series right now, as currently constructed, and they’re close to having their best starting pitcher and best reliever back for the first time this season. I wish I could bottle this emotion to feel this way every day.

7. Luke Voit is nearing a return, Giancarlo Stanton is rehabbing his way back from yet another lengthy injured-list stint and at some point, Edwin Encarnacion could return as well. The Yankees aren’t going to have any roster issues with September 1 less than two weeks away, but they’re most likely going to have some problems come October. Let’s say the Yankees were at full strength for the postseason, who would be on the postseason roster?

Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are two roster spots. Voit, Encarnacion, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius and Gio Urshela are another six. Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Stanton bring the total to 12. Severino, Tanaka, German and Paxton make it 16. Chapman, Betances, Ottavino, Britton, Kahnle and Green equal 22.

That leaves three spots for Mike Tauchman, Cameron Maybin, pinch runner Terrance Gore, CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, not to mention the possibilities of Clint Frazier, Jonathan Loaisiga or Deivi Garcia. (I’m assuming Luis Cessa and Nestor Cortes have no chance at making the roster.)

8. The actual postseason roster isn’t as much an issue as to who will be in the starting lineup. Either LeMahieu, Voit or Encarnacion will play first. Either LeMahieu or Torres will play second. Either LeMahieu or Urshela will play third. Either Torres or Gregorius will play short. One of the two odd men out could be the designated hitter, but then that would mean Stanton plays left field and Gardner is on the bench.

The Yankees are going to have a real lineup issue in October if everyone is healthy and there’s no consensus lineup to make everyone happy. On top of that, because there are too many good, worthy players for not enough spots, whichever lineup they go with is going to need to work because there will be equal or possibly even better players not in the lineup making everyone wonder what could have been if it doesn’t work out.

For this to happen, the Yankees would have to be completely healthy for the first time this season, which isn’t something I would count on. But because they haven’t been healthy all season, I could easily see the postseason being the first time they are finally at full strength to make things complicated.

9. I’m happy to see the Yankees have a “thing” again with Judge pretending to be Gardner hitting his bat against the dugout roof when he reached base via a hit yesterday. It seems like that motion is going to be the 2019 version of the 2017 “thumbs down” which the Yankees used through the end of the season.

What started out as Gardner’s frustration over striking out might be his way of rallying the team now, which is why he was confused over his ejection on Saturday. If Gardner is going to use the bat banging as a way to get a rally started, I’m all for it, but if he’s going to do it following called third strikes, it’s embarrassing.

10. In the last Off Day Dreaming on the Yankees’ last off day back on August 1, I wrote that my expected record for the Yankees in August is 17-13. They are currently 15-4 and would have to go only 2-9 for the rest of the month to achieve my expected record (by expected record, I mean a record I would be content with them having).

Between this off day and the next off day on Thursday, Aug. 29, the Yankees will play nine games on their West Coast trip against the A’s, Dodgers and Mariners. The Yankees have a 3 1/2-game lead over the Astros for home-field advantage in the AL and a one-game lead over the Dodgers for home-field advantage in the World Series. Home-field advantage and health. Those are the only two things the Yankees have to worry about now.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!