CC Sabathia didn’t want to be a Yankee. As a 28-year-old free agent, he wanted to move home to California to pitch. He initially turned down Brian Cashman’s lucrative six-year, $140 million offer, and after Cashman told Sabathia’s agents he would be willing to travel to California to meet with the left-hander and negotiate, he was on his way to Vallejo. They landed on seven years and $161 million. At the time, it was the biggest contract for a pitcher in history. The deal also included an all-important opt-out clause after three years.

Sabathia was a Yankee because the organization’s offer far exceeded any other teams, not because it was necessarily where he wanted to live or pitch. But that no longer mattered to the left-hander or Yankees fans when he went 19-8 with a 3.37 ERA in the regular season, and then 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in the postseason, earning himself ALCS MVP honors and helping the Yankees win the World Series for the first time since 2000.

Fearful of that opt-out clause after his third season, the Yankees extended him, adding two years and $50 million to his contract. He continued to pitch like an ace for the first season after the extension, going 15-6 with a 3.38 ERA, and winning Games 1 and 5 in the ALDS over the Orioles. In his first four seasons as a Yankee, Sabathia had gone 74-29 with a 3.22 ERA, being as close to a sure-thing for a win every five days as anyone in baseball, and living up to his $23 million annual salary more than any free-agent pitcher ever had.

In 2013, things took a turn for the worst. Sabathia went 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA and led the league in earned runs allowed as the Yankees missed the playoffs for just the second time since 1993. In 2014, Sabathia made only starts, and pitched to a 5.28 ERA over 46 innings. In 2015, it was much of the same, as he went 6-10 with a 4.73 ERA. Sabathia was no longer the hard-throwing ace of the Yankees, but rather a wasted roster spot making roughly $700,000 per start.

Sabathia had supposedly been best friends with Cliff Lee during their time in Cleveland and it was reported that Sabathia and Andy Pettitte had talked frequently as Sabathia’s velocity diminished. I wondered then if those two stories were true, how could Sabathia not seek out the advice of his two left-handed friends on how to succeed in the league without overpowering hitters? Were Sabathia and Lee no longer friends? Were he and Pettitte just “talking” and not talking about pitching? Was Sabathia too stubborn to reinvent himself, or could he just not do it?

Sabathia was going to make $25 million in 2016, the highest single-season salary of his career, after having gone 23-27 with a 4.81 ERA in the previous three seasons. And he was going to make another $25 million in 2017 unless he ended the 2016 season on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or spent more than 45 days on the disabled list in 2016 with a left shoulder injury or didn’t make more than six relief appearances in 2016 because of a left shoulder injury. No Yankees fan wanted Sabathia to get hurt, they just wanted him to pitch better. Any Yankees fan would have signed up for a season of a 4.50 ERA from the once-dominant lefty.

Sabathia turned his career around in 2016. He no longer reared back for a mid-to-high-90s fastball which no longer existed. He scrapped the fastballs right by you for the cutters in on your hands and the offspeed pitches and breaking balls away. The reinvention I had yearned for had occurred and Sabathia made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.91 ERA. It wasn’t worthy of $25 million per year, but it was worthy of a spot in the rotation for 2017.

He got even better as a finesse pitcher in 2017, going 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA. It was his first double-digit win season and his first season over .500 in four years. He was no longer the ace of the staff, but he was no longer an over-the-hill pitcher representing an albatross contract either. In 2018, he pitched to a 3.65 ERA, proving his new-found success was sustainable after three straight years of it.

Back on June 26, 2015, I wrote “CC Sabathia Is Done”. At the time he was done. He could no longer throw hard and was seemingly too stubborn to turn into a finesse pitcher for what looked to be the final seasons of his career. Let’s look back at what I wrote and see how it changed over his final four seasons.

Next season, Sabathia’s salary increase to $25 million for the season, and when you consider his 2011 ERA (33 starts) was 3.00, his 2012 ERA (28 starts) was 3.38, his 2013 ERA (32 starts) was 4.78, his 2014 ERA (eight starts) was 5.28 and his 2015 ERA (15 starts) is 5.65, well, where is this going to go? It could go through the 2017 season, as Sabathia has a $25 million vesting option, which will vest if he doesn’t finish the 2016 season on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or if he doesn’t spend more than 45 days in 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or if he doesn’t make more than six relief appearances in 2016 because of a left shoulder injury. (There is a $5 million buyout if any of these things happen, so the Yankees will have to pay him $5 million to not pitch, which is better than $25 million to pitch and not be good). So the only way the Yankees are getting out of paying Sabathia $50 million in 2016 and 2017 is if he injures his left shoulder, and when he’s not even going five innings in starts, that’s not going to happen. The only way to not throw away $25 million in 2017 is for Girardi to start leaving Sabathia on the mound to throw 150-pitch complete games, or hope that he retires and walks away from the money, and that’s not happening. So if you think this season has been bad or 2014 and 2013 were bad, it’s not going to get better.

The biggest problem for Sabathia at the time (aside from not giving the Yankees a chance to win in most of his starts) was the money he was owed. No Yankees fan wanted Sabathia to get hurt, but everyone was hoping the Yankees would instead use the $5 million buyout on him for 2017 to pay him to go away.

Sabathia turned it around in 2016, just in time for the Yankees to decide to not buy him out. And in the span of two years, he went from looking at being bought out and retiring to starting Games 2 and 5 of the ALDS against the Indians and Games 3 and 7 of the ALCS against the Astros. Sabathia’s line in those four postseason starts: 19 IP, 16 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 10 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 2.37 ERA, 1.368 WHIP. I still can’t believe the same person whose career seemed over when he made only eight starts in 2014 and pitched like his career was over when he did pitch was given the ball to start a game in 2017 with a trip to the World Series on the line.

I have written several times that Sabathia needs to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. With the Yankees in Houston, it was made known that Pettitte and Sabathia have talked frequently as Sabathia’s velocity and repertoire has changed, and if this is true, when are the changes going to take place, or are they ever? And do we know Sabathia and Pettitte are even talking about pitching when they talk? They could be talking about anything.

It took three seasons of a 4.81 ERA and leading the league in earned runs allowed in one of those seasons for Sabathia to finally give up on trying to be the pitcher he had been since 2001. He finally went through with the advice of Pettitte, who he grew to mirror in his starts, both with his stuff and his performances, and it revitalized his career. Sabathia became among the league leaders in soft contact, and while he might not no longer have been the hard-throwing, seven-plus inning ace, he didn’t need to be to get productive results.

At this point, I treat every Sabathia start like a trip to the casino. If you plan on spending $500 at the casino then you’re going into it assuming you’re going to lose that $500 and anything you don’t lose or if you happen to end up winning, it’s an unexpected bonus. When Sabathia takes the mound, I assume the Yankees are going to lose, and if they aren’t blown out, he will certainly blow a lead they have given him at some point in the game. If he comes out in a tie game, with the Yankees winning, it’s the unexpected bonus. That’s not how it should work for starting pitcher making $23 million this season, $25 million next season and possibly another $25 million in 2017.

Over his last four seasons, the Yankees went RECORD in games started by Sabathia, so he was longer an expected losing trip to the casino. In today’s market, as a No. 5 starter making $8 million, he more than lived up to his contract before his knee forced him to the injured list several times and his shoulder finally gave up. He more than made up for the money he “earned” from 2013 to 2015.

During the 2011 season, I said “Jorge Posada is like the aging family dog that just wanders around aimlessly and goes to the bathroom all over the place and just lies around and sleeps all day. You try to pretend like the end isn’t near and you try to remember the good times to get through the bad times, and once in a while the dog will do something to remind you of what it used to be, but it’s just momentary tease.” Well, that aging family dog has become Sabathia.

The aging family dog might have been north of 20 years old from 2013-15, but he kept on chugging along.

The next time Sabathia puts the Yankees in a hole before they even come up to bat for the first time, I will try to remember his first four seasons with the Yankees when he went 74-29 with a 3.22 ERA. The next time, he lets the 7-8-9 hitters get on base to start a rally, I will try to remember his win in Game 1 of the 2009 ALDS, his dominance over the Angels and winning the ALCS MVP in 2009 and his role in beating the Phillies in the 2009 World Series. The next time he can’t get through five innings, forcing the bullpen to be overused, I will try to remember his Game 5 win in the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers to save the season. And the next time he blows a three-run lead the inning following the Yankees taking that lead, I will try to remember his wins in Games 1 and 5 against the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS to get the Yankees out of the first round.

I will remember Sabathia’s Yankees career in three parts. Part I being 2009-2012 when he went 74-29 with a 3.22 ERA, made 13 postseason starts and one postseason relief appearance and helped the Yankees win the 2009 World Series. Part II being 2013-2015 when he went 23-27 with a 4.81 ERA and made $69 million for 69 starts. Part III being 2016 until he threw his last pitch in Game 4 of the ALCS when his body finally said enough and he walked off a major league mound for the last time.

I will try to remember the good times CC Sabathia once gave us nearly every time he took the ball because they hardly happen anymore and they are only to going to become more rare. I wish there were more good times to come, but there aren’t.

After his July 16 start against the Rays, Sabathia wasn’t himself for the rest of this season. That was the last time Sabathia gave the Yankees length (six innings) after a career built on giving his team length. He ended up on the injured list again in August and then missed half of September, forced to be left off the ALDS roster because of his injuries.

When Sabathia entered Game 4 of the ALCS in the eighth inning, the Yankees were headed for a loss to put their season on the brink of elimination. Sabathia took the mound with no one warming up in the bullpen, as it was his game to finish, and the Stadium’s chance to most likely say goodbye to the best free-agent pitcher the organization had ever signed.

I will remember the good times from Sabathia’s Yankees career, and I will remember him representing a time when ownership would do whatever it could to build the best possible roster, a time when luxury taxes, long-term contracts, overpaying for talent and worrying about five and six seasons from the present didn’t matter, only winning the World Series did. Without Sabathia, the Yankees would be looking at a two-decade championship drought instead of just one.

Sabathia saved the Yankees at a time when they had no starting pitching, couldn’t get out of the first round of the postseason and a divided clubhouse was more newsworthy than their on-field results. Sabathia gave the Yankees an ace and he gave everyone on the roster a teammate by rebuilding the Yankees’ internal culture with his infectious personality, which was shown in the emotional on-air breakdowns of Joe Girardi and Alex Rodriguez after Game 4.

Sabathia’s 17th pitch in 23 days led to a mound visit from Aaron Boone and Steve Donahue to evaluate the lefty after a look of pain and disgust. After one warm-up pitch to see if he could continue, he couldn’t. His career came to an end in a way that best described him: he pitched until he physically couldn’t pitch anymore.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

When the 10th pitch of DJ LeMahieu’s legendary ninth-inning at-bat landed just past George Springer’s outstretched glove in right field for a game-tying, two-run home run, the Yankees had their moment. After thinking about the possibility of winning three straight against he Astros and coming back down 3-1 in the series, I knew the Yankees were going to need a moment along the way, a special moment like a ninth-inning, game-tying home run. LeMahieu had provided that moment and I could truly envision Game 7 of the ALCS for the first time.

***

Game 4 left me feeling like the season was over. A sloppy and embarrasisng loss had put the Ynakees on the brink of elimination and they would face the threat of their season ending for the remainder of the series .They would need to win three games in three days against the best team in the league, win games started by both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, win twice in Houston and what seemed like the hardest obstacle of them all: they would need their offense to wake up. The offense woke up in Game 5, even if it was only for an inning, providing a three-run lead the pitching staff wouldn’t relinquish, they finally beat Verlander in the postseason for the first time in franchise history, and now they would just need to beat the Astros’ less-than-stellar bullpen in a battle of bullpens to see Cole on Sunday night.

The Yankees willingly built their 2019 postseason formula for success with the idea they would ask for 12 outs from their starting pitcher in each postseason game and then go to their super bullpen for the remaining 15. It was the same strategy which failed in the 2018, mainly because Aaron Boone didn’t read the instruction manual for it. In theory, it’s a sound strategy given the stats for starting pitching seeing a lineup for the third time in a game and the overwhelming success of the Yankees’ bullpen. But in actuality, trying to win nearly every night for a month using the same relievers over and over leads to both overuse and overexposure. That was clearly the case with Chad Green.

In Green’s first four postseason appearances, he was dominant, throwing 71 high-stress pitches over 12 days. He retired 14 of the 16 batters he faced in 4 2/3 scoreless innings to help the Yankees sweep the ALDS and steal home-field advantage from the Astros in the ALCS. But after pitching 2 2/3 perfect innings against the Astros in Games 2 and 3, Green returned to the mound in Game 4, and the combination of overuse and overexposure led to him allowing a three-run home run to break open the game and the series for the Astros.

Two nights later, the Yankees were asking Green to pitch for the fifth time in six games in the series and they were asking him to open Game 6 and face the top of the Astros’ order: Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and if anyone got on Alex Bregman, and if two people got on Yuli Gurriel. Green’s dashboard gas warning was showing “5 Miles Until Empty” but the Yankees had no other choice. He had been the team’s go-to opener all season and without a trustworthy fourth starter, he was the only reliever with experience as an opener on the roster.

Green struck out Springer on four pitches and looked the way he had in the postseason prior to Game 4. But then Altuve doubled and Bregman drew a one-out walk, and you could sense Green laboring on the mound. He was badly missing his spots, finding himself in long counts and had needed 20 pitches to record one out in the inning. Gurriel went to the plate knowing Green would try to rediscover the strike zone after the Brantley walk, and if Green threw a fastball anywhere near the plate, Gurriel was swinging.

Green’s first-pitch fastball to Gurriel sailed in toward Gurriel’s hands and before it could make it all the way inside, Gurriel opened up and crushed a three-run home to left field. Green had officially run out of gas, and the Astros had a three-run lead at home, something they had 50 times during the season and never lost once.

I expected runs in Game 6. The Astros had seen the Yankees’ bullpen too much in the series not to score against it, and it didn’t matter if the Yankees had seen the Astros’ bullpen or not, it wasn’t very good. The Yankees weren’t facing a three-run deficit against Verlander or Cole, they were facing a three-run deficit against Brad Peacock, Josh James, Ryan Pressly and Jose Urquidy. It wouldn’t take a miracle for the Yankees to come back, it would just take the offense being itself, something it hadn’t been all series.

The Yankees’ offense never truly woke up in Game 6 after it had slept through the first five games. Aside from LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres, not a single other Yankee consistently produced in the series. Judge had one moment: his Game 2 home run off Verlander, but that was his only extra-base hit of the entire postseason. Hicks had his three-run home run in Game 5, but that was it, not that I was expecting much from someone who hadn’t played since August 3. Edwin Encarnacion went 1-for-18 with 11 strikeouts and was the worst hitter on a team full of bad hitters. Brett Gardner provided three singles over six games, lowering his career postseason batting line to .196/.260/.252. Gary Sanchez had a three-run home run in Game 4 and an RBI single in Game 6, but that was it as he led the team with 12 strikeouts. Didi Gregorius looked like he was finally about to go on one of his hot streaks (oh wait, the Yankees don’t believe in hot streaks) in Game 6, but by then it was too late after he had been an automatic out for the last week. Gio Urshela had three hits (including a home run and the important ninth-inning single) and reached base four times in Game 6 and his average only climbed to .238 and his on-base percentage to .304 to show had bad he had been over the previous four games. Giancarlo Stanton … there’s nothing to say about Stanton.

The Yankees outscored the Astros in the series, but that was only because of their 7-0 win in Game 1. After that, the Yankees scored 14 runs in five games. They had 44 hits and 22 walks in the six games, but left 45 runners on. It was the same type of offensive performance we saw from them in their previous three ALCS appearances over the last decade, and like those series, they lost this one as well.

***

It’s one thing to watch the outs come off the board with your team trailing in an elimination game. The finality of the baseball season, one that started back on March 29 in this case, begins to set in and you come to accept the fact that the season is over and it won’t end with a championship. It’s another thing to have your emotions toyed with for two straight nights right up until the last pitch of the series. I had come to accept the season was over by the time the ninth inning began in Game 6, but there was still a small part of me that thought the Yankees could tie this game, eventually win it and force a Game 7. They might still lose the series with Cole going against Luis Severino and an overworked bullpen, but at least it would give Yankees fans one more day of baseball.

LeMahieu’s home run completely turned my night around as I jumped higher in the air than Springer had trying to catch it. The season had been saved. There would be a Game 7. Well, if the Yankees scored one more run in the inning there would be a Game 7. I told my wife Brittni the Yankees had to take the lead in the ninth. With the top of the order coming up in the bottom of the ninth, there was a good chance this would be the Yankees’ last chance to take a lead in the game. The Yankees didn’t score in the ninth and they didn’t get another chance to.

After Aroldis Chapman got the first two outs of the ninth, he began to worry about what he was doing rather have Springer and Altuve worry about what he was doing. He was the one on the mound with the ball in control of the situation. But he fell behind Springer and walked him, and the second he fell behind Altuve 2-0, he was in trouble. Only an extra-base hit would beat the Yankees with Springer on first, but with Altuve at the plate, it felt like he would only get an extra-base hit. Altuve sat slider and Chapman gave him one and now for the rest of time I will see replays Altuve’s pennant-winning, walk-off home run.

***

The better team won the series and it wasn’t even close. The Astros got much more length out of their starting pitching, their bullpen, while inferior on paper was better on the field, and even though their hitting was as close to as bad as the Yankees’, it came through enough to win the series in six games.

It was always going to be hard to win the pennant and reach the World Series against this Astros team. It was going to be impossible to with a two-batter lineup, inconsistent starting pitching and a fatigued bullpen. It’s amazing the series even went six games.

The 103 regular-season wins are meaningless now. Two 100-win seasons in a row, both ended with postseason elimination after the offense performed its annual October disappearing act. The Yankees can’t think they can bring the same team and pitching strategy back next year and think they will get a different result.

The first real season of this current championship window was wasted. Unfortunately, the Astros’ window is coinciding with the Yankees’, and unless the Yankees make drastic changes to improve their roster, the 2017 ALCS and 2019 ALCS won’t be the last ALCS ending with the Astros beating the Yankees.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Two pitches into Game 5, James Paxton couldn’t field his position and George Springer was on first base. Two pitches later, Gary Sanchez produced a passed ball and Springer moved to second. One pitch later, Paxton fell behind Jose Altuve 3-0 and with Springer in scoring position I began to wonder why I was even watching this game. After an Altuve groundout, a Michael Brantley walk and a Paxton wild pitch to score Springer, it felt like the Yankees’ season was going to end with another dismal performance, a day after they turned in their most dismal performance of 2019.

But then things changed. Alex Bregman rocketed a 3-2 pitch line drive that Brett Gardner ran down and Yuli Gurriel followed with a high exit-velocity line drive of his own right at Aaron Hicks. The Astros had a 1-0 lead, but it could have been much more, and it felt like maybe this game would be the game things would go the Yankees’ way.

Things were only going to go the Yankees’ way if the offense allowed them to. With six runs over the last three games and 29 innings, including just four runs scored in 18 home innings, either the Yankees’ offense was going to wake up and save the season and extend it at least one more game, or the season was going to end with yet another ALCS offensive letdown, the fourth since the Yankees’ last World Series appearance a decade ago.

DJ LeMahieu opened the bottom of the first with a leadoff home run, proving once again why he’s this team’s MVP even if he won’t be the league MVP. The Yankees’ first baseman/second baseman/third baseman provided a rare single-hit game, but his one hit tied the game, got the Stadium going and ignited a first-inning rally. LeMahieu is now hitting an absurd .343/.410/.600 in the postseason and it’s unbelievable that six months ago, not only was he not batting leadoff, but he wasn’t expected to be an everyday player on this team without injuries.

Aaron Judge stroked a line drive to left field and Gleyber Torres — the rightful 3-hitter — banged a double to left. After going 4-for-10 with a double, home run and 5 RBIs in the first two games of this series batting third, Torres was inexplicably moved down to fifth in the lineup for Game 3 and fourth for Game 4. Aaron Boone cited the desire to break up the right-handed bats, which for some reason didn’t need breaking up in the first two games of the series and didn’t need breaking up in an elimination Game 5. The reasoning never made any sense and proved to only be more ridiculous than ever with the first inning the Yankees put together on Friday night.

Giancarlo Stanton, who was magically healthy for an elimination game, struck out, leaving both runners at their respective bases. Stanton reportedly went in Boone’s office after the crushing Game 4 loss and said “Let’s go” to the manager, which is puzzling since he wasn’t able to play in Game 4, but immediately after the game, he was suddenly healed and ready to play. Stanton finished the game 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, which is understandable, considering he hadn’t played in six days and was facing Justin Verlander.

Verlander had thrown 15 pitches and recorded only one out, but he had made it through the first four batters of the lineup, and coming up he had Hicks, with 13 plate appearances to his name since August 3, and then four slumping hitters, each with an OPS that looked like it was missing the slugging percentage part of the stat. After Stanton struck out it wasn’t unreasonable to think the Yankees would strand both Judge and Torres, fail to take the lead and miss possibly the only opportunity they would get against Verlander for the rest of the game.

Twelve days ago, Hicks watched the Yankees clinch the ALDS from a restaurant in St. Petersburg. His season had been deemed over weeks before and with Tommy John surgery in the plans, he would miss at least one-third of next season as well. But Hicks was able to rehab his way back into the postseason conversation and show enough to earn a roster spot for the ALCS. After the offense disappeared following Game 1, Hicks became a middle-of-the-order bat, putting together lengthy at-bats and working impressive walks in the series. He quickly fell behind Verlander 0-2 and the percentage of the Yankees getting in even one of the two runs drastically declined. Hicks worked the count back to even and then full, and then Verlander made a rare mistake, hanging a breaking ball, a textbook cement mixer thrown middle-middle. Hicks crushed the pitch, and if it was fair, it was gone as it approached the right-field seats and began hooking toward foul territory. Just before it could finish its turn to the right of the foul pole to deflate the Stadium and Tri-state area, it clanged off the pole to give the Yankees a 4-1 lead.

Thankfully, the ball stayed fair, and thankfully, the Yankees were able to get four first-inning runs because that’s all they would get the for the rest of the game. Verlander would go on to retire 20 of the next 21 hitters, finishing with seven innings to give every Astros reliever except for Brad Peacock the night off with a bullpen vs. bullpen game scheduled for Game 6.

Despite his latest first-inning struggles, Paxton put together his best start as a Yankee, rising to the occasion and making up for his 2 1/3-innings start in Game 2. The left-hander who the Yankees acquired solely for starts like Game 5, and who, before the season spoke about wanting to be a Yankee and wanting to pitch in the postseason with the expectations of winning a championship delivered with elimination on the line. With nine strikeouts against a team that doesn’t strike out and a Yankees season-high 112 pitches, Paxton protected the first-inning, three-run lead through his final five innings of work.

For the first time since Judge’s Game 2 home run off Verlander, the Yankees got a timely, game-changing hit. After leaving the bases loaded in the first inning of both Games 3 and 4, the Yankees didn’t leave anyone on in the first inning of Game 5. It wasn’t just the LeMahieu/Judge/Torres show as Hicks had the big hit, but it was still the top-half-of-the-order show in Game 5 as the Yankees’ 1 through 5 hitters went 4-for-14 with a double, two home runs and 4 RBIs, while the 6 through 9 hitters went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts. At some point you would think at least one of Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Gio Urshela or Gardner would snap out of it and begin to contribute. I’m not asking for all four to hit, I’m only asking for one, maybe even two? With Game 6 also an elimination game for the Yankees, and a potential winner-take-all Game 7 if the Yankees can win Game 6, there’s not much time for the bottom four hitters to prove they’re not the near-automatic outs they have been for the first five games of the ALCS.

The Yankees were able to beat Verlander in a postseason game for the first time in franchise history to send the series back to Houston, where they won Game 1 and had plenty of chances to also win Game 2. They won’t face Verlander or Gerrit Cole in Game 6, and they won’t face a starting pitcher at all. It will be a bullpen game for both teams, and while the Yankees have the stronger bullpen, theirs has been used and overworked in the series. I’m not sure how the Yankees plan to navigate through an elimination game with Chad Green running on close to empty, Adam Ottavino being completely untrustworthy, Tommy Kahnle showing signs of fatigue, Zack Britton having thrown 18 pitches in Game 5 and knowing the potential disaster of asking Aroldis Chapman to pitch more than one inning. There’s a good chance Green will open Game 6 and then turn the ball over to J.A. Happ, which should make any Yankees feel about as comfortable as they would riding the 4 train from Midtown to the Stadium during rush hour before a postseason game. Not only can you expect to see multiple innings from Happ, but you can probably expect Luis Cessa and/or Tyler Lyons to make an appearance in Saturday’s must-win game as well.

The Game 5 win extended the Yankees’ season at least one more game and gave us Yankees baseball for at least one more night. It was always going to be an uphill battle to win the pennant against this Astros team, and once the Yankees lost Game 4 to go down 3-1 in the series, needing to win three games in three days against a 107-win team and needing to beat both Verlander and Cole to win the series was going to be nearly impossible. Winning Game 5 against Verlander and sending the series back to Houston has made it a little more possible.

Five down, six to go.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

The Yankees entered Game 4 knowing it was as must-win as a non-elimination game could be. Wednesday’s rainout meant four games in four days if the series went the distance. It meant overextending the bullpen if the starting pitching couldn’t give length. It meant needing to win three straight against the best team in baseball. It meant winning games started by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and another game on top of that. It meant needing to win Game 4.

The Yankees didn’t win Game 4. They didn’t come close. Instead, they turned in another humiliating offensive performance, a poor starting pitching effort, a bullpen meltdown and a defensive disaster. The offense left nine more runners on base, bringing their four-game total to 34. Masahiro Tanaka was only able to go five innings, giving up four runs and three earned runs. Chad Green finally couldn’t get out of a jam, allowing a three-run home run, after now having appeared in every game of the series. DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres combined for four errors, two each, to become the first right side of an infield to have four errors in a postseason game in history.

For the second straight game, the Yankees had a chance to do significant damage in the first inning and failed to. With the bases loaded against Zack Greinke and the future Hall of Famer unable to throw a strike, the Yankees were only able to plate one run on a bases-loaded walk from Brett Gardner. The Yankees finished the inning leaving the bases loaded in what has been a never-ending theme with the team not just in this series, but in every ALCS they have played in since their last World Series appearance in 2009.

In the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers, the Yankees scored six total runs in Games 2, 3, 4 and 6.

In the 2012 ALCS against the Tigers, the Yankees scored six total runs in the four-game loss.

In the 2017 ALCS against these same Astros, the Yankees scored three total runs in the four road games.

This is why my No. 1 fear for the postseason wasn’t the starting pitching (though that has been just about as bad as expected) and it wasn’t even so much Aaron Boone managing the team to losses like he did in last year’s postseason. It was the offense performing its annual October disappearing act, and my biggest fear has come true yet again.

The Yankees’ lineup is built for regular-season success. It’s built to mash No. 4 and 5 starters and bad bullpens over 162 games. But when it’s faced with elite starting pitchers and high-end relievers on a nightly basis, it looks as bad as it has for the last three games. Since Game 2, the Yankees have scored six runs in 29 innings and four runs in 18 home innings. I worried a lot all season about the team needing home-field advantage to beat the Astros, but they had home-field advantage in the series after winning Game 1 and it hasn’t mattered. Maybe there’s just no beating these Astros for these Yankees, home-field advantage or not.

The numbers are ugly in this series for nearly everyone in the lineup.

Aaron Judge is batting .235/.316/.412.
Edwin Encarnacion is batting .067/.222/.133.
Brett Gardner is batting .133/.235/.133.
Gary Sanchez is batting .118/.118/.294.
Gio Urshela is batting .133/.188/.333.
Didi Gregorius is batting .125/.125/.125.

(Giancarlo Stanton, who continues to be “available” but not play and Aaron Hicks who bats third with 10 plate appearances since August 3 were omitted.)

Aside from DJ LeMehaieu (.412/.500/.471) and Gleyber Torres (.294/.368/.706), no one is consistently contributing. While the Astros get timely hits and game-changing at-bats from different parts of their lineup each game, the Yankees are playing with a two-batter (LeMahieu and Torres), maybe two-and-a-half-batter (Judge) lineup each game. The bottom two-thirds of the lineup have been automatic outs, and the Yankees’ season might only have one game left because of it.

There will be plenty of time to talk about the Yankees’ decision not to upgrade their starting pitching through free agency or trades and going with the strategy of needing 12-plus outs from their bullpen each postseason game if they don’t win three straight and don’t advance to the World Series. For now, everything is about the offense ending its three-game slump and sending the series back to Houston.

In order to win this series, the Yankees will have to win a postseason game started by Justin Verlander, which is something the franchise has never done unless you count the weird one-inning suspended game in the 2011 ALDS, which shouldn’t be counted since the game was tied at the time of suspension. They lost Game 2 of the 2006 ALDS. They lost Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS. They lost Game 3 of the 2012 ALCS. They lost Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS. They lost Game 6 of the 2017 ALCS. They lost Game 2 of the 2019 ALCS. Then if they win a game started by Verlander for the first time ever, they will go to back to Houston where the Astros are historically good to face Jose Urquidy and/or the Astros’ bullpen in Game 6. If they’re able to also win that game, they will have to win another game in Houston against the best pitcher in the world this season in Gerrit Cole.

The Yankees had their chances to beat Verlander and the bullpen to win Game 2. They had their chances to beat Cole and win Game 3. They could have had at worst a 2-1 series lead or at best a 3-0 series lead before Thursday’s night debacle. Instead, they trailed 2-1 entering Game 4 and now trail 3-1 entering Game 5 because the Astros have capitalized on every opportunity since Game 1 and the Yankees haven’t.

It’s going to take a miracle for the Yankees to win this series. Three wins in three consecutive days against the best team in baseball with two of those wins needing to come against the two best pitchers in the American League and two of those wins needing to come on the road against the best home team in baseball.

The Yankees are on the brink of elimination and will remain there for as long as this series goes. If the Yankees play the way they have the last three games, the series won’t go past tonight.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Trailing by one run in the bottom of the first inning in Game 3, DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge both reached on back-to-back singles. Then Brett Gardner came up instead of Gleyber Torres and the Yankees lost the game right then.

Despite the 22-year-old’s budding superstar status, his historical regular season and his performance in the ALDS, for which I gave him the ALDS MVP, Torres batted fifth in Game 5. Aaron Boone and the analytics department, or whoever creates the lineup, finally rewarded him after two seasons of production by batting him third in Games 1 and 2 in Houston, and he went 4-for-10 with a double, home run and five RBIs. But for Game 3, Torres was back batting fifth, with Gardner inexplicably batting third. Boone was asked about this egregious decision after the game, and here was his answer:

“I mean, I was just, we had a few more lefties, so spacing our lefties out. Lineup-wise, we switch it a lot based on who we have in there. With Hicks being in there and having a third lefty, just kind of getting some spacing within our lineup is all. I actually think Gleyber hit sixth the first game if I’m not mistaken.”

That answer answered nothing. Boone fumbled around his words with a combination of “I mean” and “you know” and “um” as he searched for a BS answer he could pass off as acceptable. But nothing about the decision to bat Torres fifth was acceptable, and nothing was analytical, reasonable or logical. And Boone was mistaken, Torres batted third in the first and second games of the series, not sixth.

When facing Gerrit Cole, you might only get one chance to get to him. The Yankees ended up getting multiple chances, failing in every single one of them, but the first inning ended up being their best chance of the game. Instead of facing the red-hot Torres (oh I forgot, the Yankees don’t believe in every being hot or cold), Cole retired Gardner on two pitches and slumping Edwin Encarnacion on one pitch. Torres walked against the eventual Cy Young winner with two outs and then the also-slumping Didi Gregorius ended the inning, swinging at the first pitch of his at-bat after four straight balls to Torres.

Against Cole, Torres walked on four pitches, struck out swinging in a nine-pitch battle and walked on eight pitches, as all three of his at-bats came with two outs. Once Cole was out of the game, Torres hit a home run, his second of the series and third of the postseason against the submarine-throwing, right-handed specialist Joe Smith. So the only time in the game Torres was retired was when he lost that nine-pitch at-bat to Cole, which ended in a strikeout to the pitcher with the most strikeouts in the game since Randy Johnson in 2002.

While the decision to move Torres down in the order for no reason was the most egregious of the game, it wasn’t the only thing that led to a Yankees’ loss. Luis Severino labored through yet another postseason start, and after throwing four scoreless innings against the Twins and having to get out of multiple jams to do, he once again found himself pitching out of the stretch in four of the five innings he pitched in on Tuesday. Severino allowed to long solo home runs to Jose Altuve and Josh Reddick and put eight baserunners on in 4 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the slumping offense and Cole were too much for the Yankees to overcome the early hole Severino put them in.

Adam Ottavino also wasn’t good, and he has been the worst member of the postseason roster. He has now faced 10 batters in the series and six of them have reached base. He was unable to retire George Springer for a second straight game and was unable to record an out at all against Springer and Altuve in the seventh. His latest egg eventually turned into two insurance runs for the Astros, not that they would even need them though with Torres providing the Yankees’ lone run of the game in the eighth.

As for the offense, outside of LeMahieu, Judge and Torres, who again should all be batting consecutively, there’s no one to feel good about when they’re at the plate right now. Gardner and Encarnacion are both down to .200 with a .579 and .606 OPS respectively, Gregorius is at .227 and his OPS also isn’t good at .655 and is only even that high because of his grand slam in Game 2 of the ALDS, Sanchez has two singles in the entire postseason and isn’t having good at-bats in this series like he did in the previous series with his OPS looking like it’s missing the “O” and the “P” at .335 and Gio Urshela has been as bad as Gardner and Encarnacion. The Yankees are trying to beat the 107-win Astros with three productive batters and six near-automatic outs in their lineup. If not for Masahiro Tanaka and Torres in Game 1, the Yankees would be playing an elimination game in Game 4.

All season I was worried about two things in the postseason: Boone screwing everything up like he did last October and the lineup disappearing like it did in Games 6 and 7 of the 2017 ALCS and Games 3 and 4 of the 2018 ALDS. Well, Boone is starting to screw things up, and the offense has scored in two of the last 20 innings.

It took the Yankees one game to give home-field advantage back to the Astros. One lousy game in which the Yankees left nine on against the best pitcher in baseball. The Astros trailed in this series after one lousy game of their own and rebounded to win the next two to put the pressure back on the Yankees. Now it’s the Yankees’ turn to answer and rebound from 15 straight embarrassing innings since Judge’s two-run home run off Justin Verlander in the fourth inning of Game 2.

It’s a guarantee the nonsensical decision to bat Torres fifth will be rectified for Game 4 and he will be back hitting third where he did to open the series in Houston. It should also be a guarantee that the entire lineup should be adjusted. The Yankees need to find their offense and they have to find it in the next game. If the Yankees’ offensive trend continues the way it has since that Judge home run, they won’t have to worry about trying to win a game or games in Houston later in the series because the series won’t make it back there.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!