1. The version of Max Fried that pitched to a 1.92 ERA in his first 17 starts as a Yankee through June 25 has returned. The version of Fried that pitched to a 6.80 ERA over eight starts from July 1 through August 16 is gone. (At least I hope he is.) Fried dominated the Orioles on Thursday night with seven scoreless, three-hit innings and a career-high 13 strikeouts to improve to 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA since August 22.
“I’m feeling really good physically,” Fried said. “I feel like I did toward the beginning of the year.”
2. My biggest fear when the Yankees signed Fried was how he would pitch in important games, especially in the postseason given his spotty playoff history in 12 starts and 20 games. But over the last month Fried pitched well in Houston, against the Blue Jays and grinded through a solid start without his best stuff at Fenway Park. He’s looking like the best version of himself at the best possible time with one remaining start in the regular season before he takes the ball for Game 1 of the postseason.
“That’s when you want to really hit your stride, going into the last week or so,” Fried said. “We want to go out there and finish strong and go into the playoffs strong.”
3. The Yankees took an early lead on a two-run double in the first inning from Amed Rosario, who has solidified himself as a lineup must whenever a lefty is starting. That’s all the Yankees would need with how good Fried was, but they added a run in the fifth and four more in the seventh.
Paul Goldschmidt went 2-for-5 leading off, Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger each had a pair of walks, Austin Wells had a couple of hits, Jose Caballero reached base three times and Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe and Jazz Chisholm all had doubles. Aaron Boone opted to play Trent Grisham (0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts) over Austin Slater. If Slater isn’t going to start every game against a lefty then I don’t know what his purpose is.
4. It was a nice, easy win, which was a welcome sight. It’s been a long time since the Yankees have had a laugher. In the 18 games since August 29, only their August 29 win over the White Sox and September 11 win over the Tigers were games won comfortably. Every other game has been a nail-biter, won late or lost. That’s a long time to play nearly only stressful baseball.
5. If the Yankees play in the wild-card series, Fried will have five days of rest before Game 1. If the Yankees miraculously win the division, he will have nine days of rest before Game 1. Either way, the Yankees’ rotation lines up beautifully for whichever round they open in.
6. On Thursday, the Guardians and Mariners won and the Blue Jays and Red Sox lost. The Yankees are now three games back in the loss column from the Blue Jays for the division (and four games overall because of the tiebreaker) with nine games to play. Here is the updated table of what needs to happen for the Yankees to win the division:
If the Blue Jays go … | The Yankees need to go … |
5-4 | 9-1 |
4-5 | 8-1 |
3-6 | 7-2 |
2-7 | 6-3 |
1-8 | 5-4 |
0-9 | 4-5 |
7. Again, I’m certainly still scoreboard watching the Blue Jays and praying for their demise and a lengthy losing streak to end the season, but I’m realistic in knowing it’s going to take an all-time collapse for it to happen. The Yankees are going to need a lot of help from the Royals, Red Sox and Rays to make the dream come true. The Yankees’ division odds are 9.1 precent on FanGraphs and their postseason odds are at 99.9 percent.
8. As for the wild card, the Yankees now have a two-game lead in the loss column over the AL West and a three-game lead in the loss column over the Red Sox (though it’s really two because of the tiebreaker). The Guardians are now just a game behind the Red Sox. The Rays are going to play a major role in deciding who the Yankees play as they have series left with the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
9. Will Warren gets the ball on Friday for the first time since his disastrous first inning on Sunday at Fenway Park. Warren’s latest first-inning meltdown now has him at a 6.39 ERA with an .839 OPS against in 31 first innings this season. With Trevor Rogers going for the Orioles, Warren can’t get lit up again like that. Rogers has a 1.43 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has only allowed more than two runs in a start once this year and that was in his second start of the season. The Orioles are 12-4 this season when Rogers starts and 6-1 over the last six weeks. He doesn’t walk anyone (24 in 100 2/3 innings), doesn’t allow hits (66), doesn’t allow home runs (3) and he’s a lefty. If you were going to build a starting pitcher with the purpose of beating this Yankees team, you would build Rogers.
10. Because Rogers is a lefty, you’re likely going to see the same lineup from Thursday on Friday. Maybe Boone sits Grisham for Slater and Ben Rice plays instead of Wells, but other than that I don’t think anything changes. (It’s possible Ryan McMahon could start as he’s 2-for-4 against Rogers.) The Yankees will need to find a way to get a couple of runs off Rogers or wear him down enough to get the bullpen for three or four innings. Most importantly, Warren needs to be good.