The first loss of the season came on Saturday (thanks, Tigers!) and the first losing day of the season was Saturday (also thanks, Brewers and Dodgers!). Thankfully, we can turn the page like Aaron Boone reminded everyone every single day last season, and Sunday is a new day with a new slate of games.
Here are the bets for Sunday, April 10.
White Sox -125 over Tigers It’s not often you get a matchup as favorable as the White Sox have on Sunday against Tigers’ lefty Tarik Skubal.
Tim Anderson (11): .500/.546/1.200 Luis Robert (1): .000/.000/.000 Jose Abreu (11): .455/.455/.546 Eloy Jimenez (2): .000/.000/.000 Andrew Vaughn (8): .286/.375/.286 Josh Harrison (3): .333/.333/.667 Adam Engel (3): .667/.667/1.667 Reese McGuire (0) Danny Mendick (7): .500/.571/.500
Sure, it’s not the greatest of sample sizes. It’s pretty much the smallest of sample sizes. But it’s something, and the White Sox are going to roll out eight right-handed hitters against Skubal, and righties have an .824 OPS against him in his career (lefties have a .620).
The Tigers handed me my first loss of the season on Saturday and now it’s time to get it back.
Braves -170 over Reds Hunter Greene makes his major-league debut on Sunday. He was outstanding in seven Double-A starts in 2021 and solid in 14 at Triple-A. But the former second-overall pick won’t be facing Double- or Triple-A lineups in his debut, he’ll be facing the World Series champions.
I love Ian Anderson. Since his 2020 debut when he nearly no-hit the Yankees, I have been a fan. In his first start of the season he gets the exceedingly weak Reds lineup at home. It’s a perfect way for a starter to begin a year.
This line was at -235 on Saturday and now it’s down to -165 on Sunday morning. I thought maybe the entire Braves roster went on the injured list and they were playing an all-minor-league roster. But no. Just a crazy money line swing in favor of the lowly Reds.
Brewers -130 over Cubs I’m going back to the Brewers well. Even though I wrote on Saturday that I’m not as high on the Brewers as nearly every other baseball fan and observer, and every projection, I can’t fathom them getting swept by this Cubs teams to begin the season. Saturday’s game was a debacle with the Brewers getting shut out 9-0, a day after blowing a two-run lead.
Marcus Stroman is really good and is probably the reason the line has dropped from the -130 I took it at down to -120. Then more money realized the Cubs really suck and their 2-0 record is a mirage, and the line has been bet back to -130. Freddy Peralta is also really good (and to me the Brewers’ true No. 2 and at times even a 1A to Corbin Burnes), though this game is more about the overrated Brewers offense being due to break out. Coming off a shutout loss, no better time than today.
More to come for the late afternoon games!
Braves -170 over Reds Dodgers -190 over Rockies Those are the lines for this parlay today. When I took this parlay yesterday, both money lines were over -200, which I why I put the two together. Now that the Braves fell to -170, I took them straight up as well. (Again, not sure what’s going on there. Yes, Greene could be lights out in his major-league debut, but even so, I don’t know how the Reds are scoring.)
I may just have to take the Dodgers straight up as well depending on how the early Braves game plays out.
Tigers +115 over White Sox The Tigers’ starting lineup on Saturday has crushed Dylan Cease with an .876 OPS in 75 plate appearances. The White Sox’ starting lineup has only hit for a .717 OPS against Casey Mize. When I originally saw this line, the Tigers were at +130. By the time I bet it, it had dropped to +115.
The Tigers stole the first game of the series when A.J. Pollock couldn’t cleanly catch a Javier Baez ball off the wall to give the Tigers’ a walk-off win after replay review. Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks combined to throw 76 pitches, and I’m not sure if any will be available back-to-back games to begin the season when it will be 40 degrees with a feels like of 33 at first pitch in Detroit on Saturday.
Brewers -150 over Cubs This game and this matchup was supposed to take place yesterday. I’m still on it with some added value as it was -160 when I took it yesterday.
I’m not as high on the Brewers as most, especially projections, because their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, they have a very strong rotation and a solid bullpen, but the only hitter to fear is Christian Yelich, and it’s going on three years since he has last been feared. Unless you fear ex-Yankee legend Jace Peterson who started at third base for the Brewers in their season-opening loss to the Cubs.
That season-opening loss to the Cubs is why I’m on the Brewers in Game 2 of the series. The Cubs are awful. They used their one good starter in Game 1, and used a Nico Hoerner two-run home run to help lead them to an unexpected win in a game started by Corbin Burnes. (Of course, Clint Frazier went 1-for-1 with a double in his Cubs debut. I will miss Frazier.) Back-to-back wins for the Cubs over the Brewers? I don’t see it. Especially since no one outside of Andrelton Simmons (5-for-7) hits Brandon Woodruff. I don’t expect Justin Steele to give the Cubs length on Friday (five innings would be his ceiling in an ideal scenario), so the Cubs will need at least four innings from their bullpen, and the Brewers will have many opportunities to win this one.
Yankees -155 over Red Sox The first batters in the Yankees’ lineup on Saturday are a combined 12-for-41 (.292) with five home runs against Nick Pivetta. The current Red Sox roster is miserable against Luis Severino. J.D. Martinez has a .921 OPS in 19 plate appearances, but that’s it. Jackie Bradley .533 (30 plate appearances), Xander Bogaerts .200 (25), Rafael Devers .143 (14).
I never feel confident picking these Yankees against these Red Sox, but the numbers suggest I’m foolish to feel this way. It’s Severino’s first start since Game 3 of the 2019 ALCS, and he will likely be held to even less of a pitch count than Gerrit Cole was on Friday at 75-80. Even so, I think a Yankees offense that struggled on Opening Day and got all of their runs via the home run and the automatic runner will bust out on Saturday. With Aaron Hicks sitting, Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield and Aaron Boone suddenly turning into a reliable manager in a one-game and two-day sample size, it’s lining up for a 2-0 start to the season for the Yankees.
Dodgers -145 over Rockies The Dodgers’ lineup doesn’t have very good numbers against German Marquez, but the Rockies’ lineup has abysmal numbers against Tony Gonsolin in a limited 30 plate appearances. But it’s the Dodgers against the Rockies, and there’s no reason the Dodgers shouldn’t be at least -200 every time they play the Rockies. It doesn’t matter that it’s Marquez and it doesn’t matter that it’s on the road. The Rockies suck.
Dodgers-Rockies Under 12 -115 The Dodgers-Rockies under 11.5 was cruising on Friday with two runs scored heading into the fourth. Then the Dodgers scored five times, forcing the Rockies to go to their bullpen and I figured the wager was lost cause. Needing 33 outs at Coors Field and only being able to give up four runs? Not a spot you want to be in. Thankfully, both teams put up zeros all the way until the bottom of the ninth when the Rockies scored a run.
I’m going back to the well on Saturday with the over/under increased by half a run. The Dodgers have a lesser pitcher going on Saturday in Gonsolin than on Friday in Walker Buehler, but the Rockies have a better pitcher going on Saturday in Marquez than on Friday in Kyle Freeland.
It’s Opening Day! (For the Yankees that is, and that’s all that matters, right?) OK, so it’s Opening Day 2.0. (To me, it’s the real Opening Day.) There are 13 games on the Friday schedule before we get our first full 15-game slate of 2022 on Saturday.
It’s Opening Day! (For the Yankees that is, and that’s all that matters, right?) OK, so it’s Opening Day 2.0. (To me, it’s the real Opening Day.) There are 13 games on the Friday schedule before we get our first full 15-game slate of 2022 on Saturday.
Here are the bets for Friday, April 8.
Yankees -170 over Red Sox If I weren’t a Yankees fan, I would be all over the other side of this pick. But I am a Yankees fan and it’s Opening Day, so there’s no way I’m sitting this one out, even though I don’t have a good feeling about this game (just like I didn’t have a good feeling about the same matchup in last season’s wild-card game), and I’m going against my own rule of taking a team straight up at -170 just because it’s the Yankees. I’m setting myself up for a very depressing Friday night if the Yankees lose since they will not only lose on Opening Day, but they will lose to the Red Sox of all teams, and cost me financially. Oh well!
Cole has always had trouble with the Red Sox dating back to his time with the Astros, and as a Yankee, whether he’s been using sticky stuff or not, his troubles have continued against them. (To make matters worse, the Yankees’ ace also has a problem pitching well against the Rays and Blue Jays. No big deal.) The last time he pitched against them was just over six months ago when he single-handedly ended the Yankees’ season four batters into the first inning. Cole was thoroughly embarrassed in the last game the Yankees played, and injured hamstring or not, he chose to take the ball and has to live with the fact that his performance, both in September and in the one-game playoff ruined the Yankees’ season. It was his September collapse that forced the Yankees into playing that one game on the road, and it was his one-game playoff performance that ended the season.
“Sick to my stomach,” is what he said following the Yankees’ elimination a little more than six months ago. He has had to wear that effort for the last half-year and now he has a chance to begin redeeming himself against the Yankees’ rival. It doesn’t mean he will, it just means he can, if he pitches well. And with his knack for deep counts and elevated pitch counts, and with an expected pitch count of about 75-80 on Friday, it’s not hard to see Cole lasting only four innings in this game. Not great! (Again, this is a very ill-advised wager.)
I despise Nathan Eovaldi. He is the face of my last few All-Animosity Teams after a bust of a Yankees tenure that has led to him becoming the pitcher the Yankees thought they acquired from Marlins, except for the Red Sox. He has dominated the Yankees as a Red Sox, while also playing an important role in the Red Sox’ 2018 championship. It makes me sick. Not metaphorically “sick to my stomach” like Cole said after Eovaldi outpitched him to end the 2021 season, I mean actually, violently sick. I get hives thinking about Eovaldi and body aches and fatigue watching him mow down the Yankees.
These Red Sox have owned Cole, and Eovaldi has owned these Yankees. It’s foolish of me to know all of this, write all of this and still wager actual money on the other side of everything I think about this matchup, especially at -170 and especially with Cole supposedly not being allowed to get close to 100 pitches. But like I said, it’s the Yankees and it’s Opening Day, and I can’t sit this one out, even if that’s the sensible thing to do. If Cole only lasts four or five innings, at least the Yankees’ bullpen is the biggest edge they have over the Red Sox.
Brewers -160 over Cubs I’m not as high on the Brewers as most, especially projections, because their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, they have a very strong rotation and a solid bullpen, but the only hitter to fear is Christian Yelich, and it’s going on three years since he has last been feared. Unless you fear ex-Yankee legend Jace Peterson who started at third base for the Brewers in their season-opening loss to the Cubs.
That season-opening loss to the Cubs is why I’m on the Brewers in Game 2 of the series. The Cubs are awful. They used their one good starter in Game 1, and used a Nico Hoerner two-run home run to help lead them to an unexpected win in a game started by Corbin Burnes. (Of course, Clint Frazier went 1-for-1 with a double in his Cubs debut. I will miss Frazier.) Back-to-back wins for the Cubs over the Brewers? I don’t see it. Especially since no one outside of Andrelton Simmons (5-for-7) hits Brandon Woodruff. I don’t expect Justin Steele to give the Cubs length on Friday (five innings would be his ceiling in an ideal scenario), so the Cubs will need at least four innings from their non-Mychal Givens/David Robertson relievers, and the Brewers will have many opportunities to win this one.
Mets -160 over Nationals The Mets were the first bet of the season, and I wish I had wagered more. Sure, the Nationals have the best hitter in baseball in Juan Soto, but after Soto and Nelson Cruz (who I will always fear even if he’s still playing at age 50), that’s it. They are a really bad team destined for an abundance of losses and a last-place finish in the NL East. I will enjoy betting against them all season.
Dodgers -210 over Rockies Braves -180 over Reds Yeah, yeah, I know parlays are for suckers. Well, I’m a sucker on Opening Day. After six-plus months without Yankees baseball, five-plus months without any baseball and a three-plus month lockout that nearly destroyed this season, I’m putting together a parlay. I don’t care.
The Rockies’ roster is atrocious, like 90-plus losses atrocious. Charlie Blackmon has had exceptional success against Walker Buehler in 56 plate appearances (.385/.411/1.045), and Brendan Rodgers (.308/.308/.769) and C.J. Cron (.429/.429/.571) have done well against the right-hander in a limited 27 plate appearances, but that’s it. The rest of the current Rockies team hasn’t hit Buehler. Buehler hasn’t pitched well in 65 career innings at Coors Field (4.98 ERA), but a lot of those innings came against a Rockies team that had Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story and still-in-his-prime Charlie Blackmon. The innings on Friday won’t come against that Rockies team.
Kyle Freeland is a solid pitcher, who has a remarkable 4.20 career ERA in 654 innings given that he’s only ever pitched for the Rockies. The problem for him is his inability to record strikeouts. It’s not that a career 7.0 K/9 is something to scoff at (7.8 last season), it’s that it’s 2022 and in this era of baseball, not having a 1-to-1 strikeout-to-inning ratio as a starter is shocking. The Dodgers’ collective team numbers against Freeland aren’t anything special (.731 OPS), but the right-handed hitters have done well against him, and you can expect a right-handed heavy lineup against him. At most, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger will be the only lefty starters, and Bellinger has an .821 OPS against Freeland.
Even if Freeland is able to hold down the Dodgers’ two times through the order, the hooks are going to be quick on all starters because of the shortened spring training and their inability to be fully stretched out. That brings in the Rockies’ X-factor of manager Bud Black, who is arguably the worst manager in all of baseball. He makes Aaron Boone look like Joe Torre, and Black coupled with a bullpen that flat-out sucks at Coors Field is how you get a run total sat at 11.5 in a game started by Cy Young contender Buehler.
As for the Braves-Reds games, I have never liked betting on Braves game. They (along with the Cardinals) are the team that will screw me either way I go. But after losing their first game of the season to the Reds, I don’t think they lose back-to-back to a Reds team that is horrible simply because their front office is actively trying to lose this season.
Dodgers-Rockies Under 11.5-115 It seems like no Coors Field under is ever a good idea. I have been crushed many times on 13.5s there, but 11.5 is a lot of runs in a game in which Buehler will start. The Dodgers could cover this on their own against the Rockies’ bullpen, but there’s too much value in being able to 1.28 runs per inning with someone as good as Buehler pitching against a lineup as bad as the Rockies’.
