The first loss of the season came on Saturday (thanks, Tigers!) and the first losing day of the season was Saturday (also thanks, Brewers and Dodgers!). Thankfully, we can turn the page like Aaron Boone reminded everyone every single day last season, and Sunday is a new day with a new slate of games.
Here are the bets for Sunday, April 10.
White Sox -125 over Tigers It’s not often you get a matchup as favorable as the White Sox have on Sunday against Tigers’ lefty Tarik Skubal.
Tim Anderson (11): .500/.546/1.200 Luis Robert (1): .000/.000/.000 Jose Abreu (11): .455/.455/.546 Eloy Jimenez (2): .000/.000/.000 Andrew Vaughn (8): .286/.375/.286 Josh Harrison (3): .333/.333/.667 Adam Engel (3): .667/.667/1.667 Reese McGuire (0) Danny Mendick (7): .500/.571/.500
Sure, it’s not the greatest of sample sizes. It’s pretty much the smallest of sample sizes. But it’s something, and the White Sox are going to roll out eight right-handed hitters against Skubal, and righties have an .824 OPS against him in his career (lefties have a .620).
The Tigers handed me my first loss of the season on Saturday and now it’s time to get it back.
Braves -170 over Reds Hunter Greene makes his major-league debut on Sunday. He was outstanding in seven Double-A starts in 2021 and solid in 14 at Triple-A. But the former second-overall pick won’t be facing Double- or Triple-A lineups in his debut, he’ll be facing the World Series champions.
I love Ian Anderson. Since his 2020 debut when he nearly no-hit the Yankees, I have been a fan. In his first start of the season he gets the exceedingly weak Reds lineup at home. It’s a perfect way for a starter to begin a year.
This line was at -235 on Saturday and now it’s down to -165 on Sunday morning. I thought maybe the entire Braves roster went on the injured list and they were playing an all-minor-league roster. But no. Just a crazy money line swing in favor of the lowly Reds.
Brewers -130 over Cubs I’m going back to the Brewers well. Even though I wrote on Saturday that I’m not as high on the Brewers as nearly every other baseball fan and observer, and every projection, I can’t fathom them getting swept by this Cubs teams to begin the season. Saturday’s game was a debacle with the Brewers getting shut out 9-0, a day after blowing a two-run lead.
Marcus Stroman is really good and is probably the reason the line has dropped from the -130 I took it at down to -120. Then more money realized the Cubs really suck and their 2-0 record is a mirage, and the line has been bet back to -130. Freddy Peralta is also really good (and to me the Brewers’ true No. 2 and at times even a 1A to Corbin Burnes), though this game is more about the overrated Brewers offense being due to break out. Coming off a shutout loss, no better time than today.
More to come for the late afternoon games!
Braves -170 over Reds Dodgers -190 over Rockies Those are the lines for this parlay today. When I took this parlay yesterday, both money lines were over -200, which I why I put the two together. Now that the Braves fell to -170, I took them straight up as well. (Again, not sure what’s going on there. Yes, Greene could be lights out in his major-league debut, but even so, I don’t know how the Reds are scoring.)
I may just have to take the Dodgers straight up as well depending on how the early Braves game plays out.
Tigers +115 over White Sox The Tigers’ starting lineup on Saturday has crushed Dylan Cease with an .876 OPS in 75 plate appearances. The White Sox’ starting lineup has only hit for a .717 OPS against Casey Mize. When I originally saw this line, the Tigers were at +130. By the time I bet it, it had dropped to +115.
The Tigers stole the first game of the series when A.J. Pollock couldn’t cleanly catch a Javier Baez ball off the wall to give the Tigers’ a walk-off win after replay review. Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks combined to throw 76 pitches, and I’m not sure if any will be available back-to-back games to begin the season when it will be 40 degrees with a feels like of 33 at first pitch in Detroit on Saturday.
Brewers -150 over Cubs This game and this matchup was supposed to take place yesterday. I’m still on it with some added value as it was -160 when I took it yesterday.
I’m not as high on the Brewers as most, especially projections, because their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, they have a very strong rotation and a solid bullpen, but the only hitter to fear is Christian Yelich, and it’s going on three years since he has last been feared. Unless you fear ex-Yankee legend Jace Peterson who started at third base for the Brewers in their season-opening loss to the Cubs.
That season-opening loss to the Cubs is why I’m on the Brewers in Game 2 of the series. The Cubs are awful. They used their one good starter in Game 1, and used a Nico Hoerner two-run home run to help lead them to an unexpected win in a game started by Corbin Burnes. (Of course, Clint Frazier went 1-for-1 with a double in his Cubs debut. I will miss Frazier.) Back-to-back wins for the Cubs over the Brewers? I don’t see it. Especially since no one outside of Andrelton Simmons (5-for-7) hits Brandon Woodruff. I don’t expect Justin Steele to give the Cubs length on Friday (five innings would be his ceiling in an ideal scenario), so the Cubs will need at least four innings from their bullpen, and the Brewers will have many opportunities to win this one.
Yankees -155 over Red Sox The first batters in the Yankees’ lineup on Saturday are a combined 12-for-41 (.292) with five home runs against Nick Pivetta. The current Red Sox roster is miserable against Luis Severino. J.D. Martinez has a .921 OPS in 19 plate appearances, but that’s it. Jackie Bradley .533 (30 plate appearances), Xander Bogaerts .200 (25), Rafael Devers .143 (14).
I never feel confident picking these Yankees against these Red Sox, but the numbers suggest I’m foolish to feel this way. It’s Severino’s first start since Game 3 of the 2019 ALCS, and he will likely be held to even less of a pitch count than Gerrit Cole was on Friday at 75-80. Even so, I think a Yankees offense that struggled on Opening Day and got all of their runs via the home run and the automatic runner will bust out on Saturday. With Aaron Hicks sitting, Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield and Aaron Boone suddenly turning into a reliable manager in a one-game and two-day sample size, it’s lining up for a 2-0 start to the season for the Yankees.
Dodgers -145 over Rockies The Dodgers’ lineup doesn’t have very good numbers against German Marquez, but the Rockies’ lineup has abysmal numbers against Tony Gonsolin in a limited 30 plate appearances. But it’s the Dodgers against the Rockies, and there’s no reason the Dodgers shouldn’t be at least -200 every time they play the Rockies. It doesn’t matter that it’s Marquez and it doesn’t matter that it’s on the road. The Rockies suck.
Dodgers-Rockies Under 12 -115 The Dodgers-Rockies under 11.5 was cruising on Friday with two runs scored heading into the fourth. Then the Dodgers scored five times, forcing the Rockies to go to their bullpen and I figured the wager was lost cause. Needing 33 outs at Coors Field and only being able to give up four runs? Not a spot you want to be in. Thankfully, both teams put up zeros all the way until the bottom of the ninth when the Rockies scored a run.
I’m going back to the well on Saturday with the over/under increased by half a run. The Dodgers have a lesser pitcher going on Saturday in Gonsolin than on Friday in Walker Buehler, but the Rockies have a better pitcher going on Saturday in Marquez than on Friday in Kyle Freeland.
It’s Opening Day! (For the Yankees that is, and that’s all that matters, right?) OK, so it’s Opening Day 2.0. (To me, it’s the real Opening Day.) There are 13 games on the Friday schedule before we get our first full 15-game slate of 2022 on Saturday.
It’s Opening Day! (For the Yankees that is, and that’s all that matters, right?) OK, so it’s Opening Day 2.0. (To me, it’s the real Opening Day.) There are 13 games on the Friday schedule before we get our first full 15-game slate of 2022 on Saturday.
Here are the bets for Friday, April 8.
Yankees -170 over Red Sox If I weren’t a Yankees fan, I would be all over the other side of this pick. But I am a Yankees fan and it’s Opening Day, so there’s no way I’m sitting this one out, even though I don’t have a good feeling about this game (just like I didn’t have a good feeling about the same matchup in last season’s wild-card game), and I’m going against my own rule of taking a team straight up at -170 just because it’s the Yankees. I’m setting myself up for a very depressing Friday night if the Yankees lose since they will not only lose on Opening Day, but they will lose to the Red Sox of all teams, and cost me financially. Oh well!
Cole has always had trouble with the Red Sox dating back to his time with the Astros, and as a Yankee, whether he’s been using sticky stuff or not, his troubles have continued against them. (To make matters worse, the Yankees’ ace also has a problem pitching well against the Rays and Blue Jays. No big deal.) The last time he pitched against them was just over six months ago when he single-handedly ended the Yankees’ season four batters into the first inning. Cole was thoroughly embarrassed in the last game the Yankees played, and injured hamstring or not, he chose to take the ball and has to live with the fact that his performance, both in September and in the one-game playoff ruined the Yankees’ season. It was his September collapse that forced the Yankees into playing that one game on the road, and it was his one-game playoff performance that ended the season.
“Sick to my stomach,” is what he said following the Yankees’ elimination a little more than six months ago. He has had to wear that effort for the last half-year and now he has a chance to begin redeeming himself against the Yankees’ rival. It doesn’t mean he will, it just means he can, if he pitches well. And with his knack for deep counts and elevated pitch counts, and with an expected pitch count of about 75-80 on Friday, it’s not hard to see Cole lasting only four innings in this game. Not great! (Again, this is a very ill-advised wager.)
I despise Nathan Eovaldi. He is the face of my last few All-Animosity Teams after a bust of a Yankees tenure that has led to him becoming the pitcher the Yankees thought they acquired from Marlins, except for the Red Sox. He has dominated the Yankees as a Red Sox, while also playing an important role in the Red Sox’ 2018 championship. It makes me sick. Not metaphorically “sick to my stomach” like Cole said after Eovaldi outpitched him to end the 2021 season, I mean actually, violently sick. I get hives thinking about Eovaldi and body aches and fatigue watching him mow down the Yankees.
These Red Sox have owned Cole, and Eovaldi has owned these Yankees. It’s foolish of me to know all of this, write all of this and still wager actual money on the other side of everything I think about this matchup, especially at -170 and especially with Cole supposedly not being allowed to get close to 100 pitches. But like I said, it’s the Yankees and it’s Opening Day, and I can’t sit this one out, even if that’s the sensible thing to do. If Cole only lasts four or five innings, at least the Yankees’ bullpen is the biggest edge they have over the Red Sox.
Brewers -160 over Cubs I’m not as high on the Brewers as most, especially projections, because their lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Yes, they have a very strong rotation and a solid bullpen, but the only hitter to fear is Christian Yelich, and it’s going on three years since he has last been feared. Unless you fear ex-Yankee legend Jace Peterson who started at third base for the Brewers in their season-opening loss to the Cubs.
That season-opening loss to the Cubs is why I’m on the Brewers in Game 2 of the series. The Cubs are awful. They used their one good starter in Game 1, and used a Nico Hoerner two-run home run to help lead them to an unexpected win in a game started by Corbin Burnes. (Of course, Clint Frazier went 1-for-1 with a double in his Cubs debut. I will miss Frazier.) Back-to-back wins for the Cubs over the Brewers? I don’t see it. Especially since no one outside of Andrelton Simmons (5-for-7) hits Brandon Woodruff. I don’t expect Justin Steele to give the Cubs length on Friday (five innings would be his ceiling in an ideal scenario), so the Cubs will need at least four innings from their non-Mychal Givens/David Robertson relievers, and the Brewers will have many opportunities to win this one.
Mets -160 over Nationals The Mets were the first bet of the season, and I wish I had wagered more. Sure, the Nationals have the best hitter in baseball in Juan Soto, but after Soto and Nelson Cruz (who I will always fear even if he’s still playing at age 50), that’s it. They are a really bad team destined for an abundance of losses and a last-place finish in the NL East. I will enjoy betting against them all season.
Dodgers -210 over Rockies Braves -180 over Reds Yeah, yeah, I know parlays are for suckers. Well, I’m a sucker on Opening Day. After six-plus months without Yankees baseball, five-plus months without any baseball and a three-plus month lockout that nearly destroyed this season, I’m putting together a parlay. I don’t care.
The Rockies’ roster is atrocious, like 90-plus losses atrocious. Charlie Blackmon has had exceptional success against Walker Buehler in 56 plate appearances (.385/.411/1.045), and Brendan Rodgers (.308/.308/.769) and C.J. Cron (.429/.429/.571) have done well against the right-hander in a limited 27 plate appearances, but that’s it. The rest of the current Rockies team hasn’t hit Buehler. Buehler hasn’t pitched well in 65 career innings at Coors Field (4.98 ERA), but a lot of those innings came against a Rockies team that had Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story and still-in-his-prime Charlie Blackmon. The innings on Friday won’t come against that Rockies team.
Kyle Freeland is a solid pitcher, who has a remarkable 4.20 career ERA in 654 innings given that he’s only ever pitched for the Rockies. The problem for him is his inability to record strikeouts. It’s not that a career 7.0 K/9 is something to scoff at (7.8 last season), it’s that it’s 2022 and in this era of baseball, not having a 1-to-1 strikeout-to-inning ratio as a starter is shocking. The Dodgers’ collective team numbers against Freeland aren’t anything special (.731 OPS), but the right-handed hitters have done well against him, and you can expect a right-handed heavy lineup against him. At most, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger will be the only lefty starters, and Bellinger has an .821 OPS against Freeland.
Even if Freeland is able to hold down the Dodgers’ two times through the order, the hooks are going to be quick on all starters because of the shortened spring training and their inability to be fully stretched out. That brings in the Rockies’ X-factor of manager Bud Black, who is arguably the worst manager in all of baseball. He makes Aaron Boone look like Joe Torre, and Black coupled with a bullpen that flat-out sucks at Coors Field is how you get a run total sat at 11.5 in a game started by Cy Young contender Buehler.
As for the Braves-Reds games, I have never liked betting on Braves game. They (along with the Cardinals) are the team that will screw me either way I go. But after losing their first game of the season to the Reds, I don’t think they lose back-to-back to a Reds team that is horrible simply because their front office is actively trying to lose this season.
Dodgers-Rockies Under 11.5-115 It seems like no Coors Field under is ever a good idea. I have been crushed many times on 13.5s there, but 11.5 is a lot of runs in a game in which Buehler will start. The Dodgers could cover this on their own against the Rockies’ bullpen, but there’s too much value in being able to 1.28 runs per inning with someone as good as Buehler pitching against a lineup as bad as the Rockies’.
The All-Star break means the announcement of this season’s All-Animosity Team.
The All-Star break is here, which means the season is “half” over. For the Yankees, it’s actually 55 percent over with 73 games left, and they likely need to win 50 of those 73 games to have a chance at the division and might need to win that many just to play in the one-game, wild card game. Don’t tell Aaron Boone that though. He thinks the season is endless without a finite number of games to be played. At least that’s the way he talks after each loss, and there have been a lot of them.
Another All-Star break means another All-Animosity Team. I’ll always remember the teams which featured David Wright, Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez, Chone Figgins, Kevin Youkilis, Robert Andino, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Matt Wieters, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton (when he went by B.J.), Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jose Bautista, Magglio Ordonez and many others. But I also like having a new generation of players to have animosity for.
The standards to be considered for the team are simple and only one of the following three requirements needs to be met:
1. The player crushes the Yankees.
2. The player plays for the Red Sox or Mets.
3. I don’t like the person. (When I say, “I don’t like the person” or if I say, “I hate someone” I mean I don’t like the person who wears a uniform and plays or manages for a Major League Baseball team and not the actual person away from the game. I’m sure some of the people on this list are nice people. I’m glad we got that out of the way since I can already see Player X’s fan base in an uproar about me hating someone who does so much for the community.)
Here is the 2021 All-Animosity Team.
C: Danny Jansen If you’re wondering who Danny Jansen is, you’re not alone. Jansen is the Blue Jays’ catcher with the career .201 batting average, .290 on-base percentage and .358 slugging percentage. He’s as light of a hitter as you can be in the majors and still be in the majors. So why is that no Yankees pitcher can get him out?
In 228 career games, Jansen is a .201/.290/.358 hitter with 26 home runs and 80 RBIs. In 25 games against the Yankees, he’s a .316/.416/.605 hitter with six home runs and 15 RBIs. On a team with Vladimir Gurrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Cavan Biggio and Rowdy Tellez, I would rather have any of those players up in a big spot against the Yankees than Jansen.
1B: Pete Alonso I will never get over Pete Alonso breaking Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record in a season in which the actual baseball was manufactured so differently that Brett Gardner hit 28 home runs. Alonso never should have hit 53 home runs and never should have broken Judge’s record of 52.
To be honest, I like Alonso. I like his personality, I like how he loves competing in the Home Run Derby, and I like how he won the 2021 Home Run Derby when I had him at +600 to win. I just don’t like that he plays for the Mets.
2B: Jose Altuve Jose Altuve used to be my favorite non-Yankees player. That was before October 2019 and the uncovering of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.
After hitting .320/.414/.560 with two home runs, four walks and a stolen base in the Astros’ 2017 ALCS win over the Yankees, Altuve hit .348/.444/1.097 with a double, two home runs, four walks and a stolen base in the Astros’ 2019 ALCS win over the Yankees. He’s also responsible for ending the Yankees’ season with a walk-off, pennant-winning home run in Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS.
I used to enjoy watching Altuve play (when not playing the Yankees) and admired his ability for his stature. Now I watch him hoping he will fail, though he rarely does, and certainly doesn’t against the Yankees, as his two three-run home runs this season of Chad Green are responsible for the Yankees’ only two losses to the Astros.
3B: Rafael Devers The moment Rafael Devers hit that two-strike, opposite-field home run off Aroldis Chapman in 2017, I knew I had a problem. I also knew the All-Animosity Team had a third baseman for the next decade.
After his impressive 58-game rookie season in 2017, Devers looked lost last in 2018, batting .240/.298/.433 in 121 games and I got ahead of myself thinking the 21-year-old might be a bust. In 2019, he hit .311/.361/.555 with a league-leading 54 doubles to go along with 32 home runs 115 RBIs. He already has 10 career home runs against the Yankees in only 58 games, and has driven in nine runs against them in six games this season.
Devers is going to be on this team for a long, long time. That is, until he’s set to free agency and the Red Sox cry poor and trade him like they did Mookie Betts. I can only dream that will happen.
SS: Carlos Correa While Altuve and Alex Bregman were hiding behind their prepared statements and vague responses to questions about the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal following the 2019 season, Correa was busy talking to anyone who would listen. The only problem was a lot of what he said was outrageous.
Add in his ridiculous .939 career OPS against the Yankees in the regular season, his .913 OPS against them in the 2017 ALCS and his two home runs in the 2019 ALCS, including his walk-off in Game 2, and Correa is an easy fit to pencil in at short on this team.
LF: Trey Mancini After being left off the 2020 roster, so he could beat cancer rather than play baseball, it’s good to have Mancini back on this team because it means he’s healthy and it means he’s playing baseball again.
Since the Manny Machado trade and until the emergence of Cedric Mullins, Mancini was the only actual major leaguer playing for the Orioles. Despite this, the Yankees would still allow Mancini to beat them. He’s the last person I want up in a big spot when the Yankees play the Orioles as he always seems to find a gap at the most inopportune times.
CF: Kevin Kiermaier Kiermaier is a career .247/.306/.408 hitter, but against the Yankees it seems like he’s Ken Griffey Jr. Thirteen of his 73 career home runs (18 percent) have come against the Yankees, and in 2020, Kiermaier drew game-changing walks, hit big home runs against Masahiro Tanaka and Gerrit Cole and continued to play Gold Glove defense to help the Rays easily win the division.
Normally, I want Yankees pitching to face as many hitters with Kiermaier’s numbers as possible, but not Kiermaier. I’m looking forward to his contract with the Rays ending in 2022, and hopefully the team option for 2023 isn’t picked up.
RF: Randal Grichuk How, for a second straight year, did Randal Grichuk end up on this team full of All-Stars, award-winning players and ex-Yankees? Well, in 2018, he hit five home runs in 16 games against the Yankees. In 2019, he had two doubles, eight home runs, 15 RBIs and a .938 OPS in 19 games against the Yankees. This season, he’s added another two home runs and four total extra-base hits, including his 10th inning double on Opening Day to give the Blue Jays the lead in a game they would win to launch arguably the worst Yankees’ season in nearly 30 years.
Grichuk is barely a major leaguer when he plays against the 28 other teams not named the Yankees, but a Hall of Famer against the Yankees. He essentially hits against the Yankees the way Ortiz, Evan Longoria, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Manny Machado used to.
DH: Alex Bregman The first thing I used to think about when thinking about Bregman was how hard it is to retire him at the plate. Now when I think of him, I think of him standing there at the Astros’ fan fest after the 2019 season and giving the same rehearsed answer over and over about the team’s sign-stealing scandal with that smirk on his face and the sarcastic laugh he kept giving the media. The easiest of players to root against.
SP: Nathan Eovaldi Never trust a pitcher who throws triple-digit fastballs and can’t strike anyone out and that’s exactly what Eovaldi is. The Dodgers gave up on him and then the Marlins gave up on him as a 24-year-old with incredible velocity because he didn’t have an out pitch and didn’t know where the ball was going. So the Yankees gave up Martin Prado and David Phelps because of the glamour of Eovaldi’s fastball, thinking they would be the ones who could fix him. They weren’t.
Eovaldi pitched to a 14-3 record in 2015, so every idiot who relies on wins and losses to determine a pitcher’s success thought he had a great season. It didn’t matter that he received 5.75 runs of support per game or that he routinely struggled to get through five innings and qualify for a win because he needs 20-plus pitches to get through each inning. In 2016, it was more of the same. Eovaldi pitched to a 4.76 ERA over 21 starts and 24 games before being shut down for another Tommy John surgery, ending his time with the Yankees as they let him leave at the end of the season.
When Eovaldi returned to baseball in 2018 and pitched well with the Rays, many Yankees fans started to think about a reunion, having not learned their lesson from the last time Eovaldi was a Yankee. When he was traded to the Red Sox, I laughed with excitement, envisioning him destroying the Red Sox’ chances at winning the division. Instead, he shut out the Yankees in the all-important August series (even if faced a JV lineup) and then shut them out against in September. I never thought he would be able to beat the Yankees in October in the Bronx, but he did, after getting more run support than any other pitcher against the Yankees in the team’s history.
Eovaldi beat the Yankees and the Astros in the playoffs, mixed in a few relief appearances and then became a hero for his bullpen work in Game 3 of the World Series, even though he took the loss after giving up a walk-off home run. (Only in Boston could a losing pitcher become a “hero.”) Now Eovaldi is a World Series champion, continues to beat the Yankees’ poorly-designed, all-right-handed lineup and I’ll never get over it.
RP: Adam Ottavino I actually like Ottavino. I don’t like what him being on the Red Sox symbolizes, and him being on the Red Sox symbolizes the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees, who are so petrified of the luxury tax they would rather pay players to play for their rival than exceed the luxury.
I have enjoyed watching Ottavino embarrass the Yankees all-right-handed lineup this season, while being paid by the Yankees to do so. Rather than keep Ottavino in the last year of this three-year contract, re-sign the reliable Tanaka and sign Darren O’Day, Justin Wilson, Brett Gardner and Corey Kluber, the Yankees chose only to sign the latter players. In return, they have received 10 2/3 innings from O’Day, 14 2/3 innings from Wilson, a .614 OPS from Gardner and 10 starts from Kluber.
Manager: Aaron Boone No Yankees player is allowed to be on the All-Animosity Team, even though there have been a lot of players over the years who have been deserving of a roster spot. A manager on the other hand …
Boone doesn’t play for the Yankees, and since I have often said Boone is the Yankees’ most difficult obstacle to winning the World Series, moreso than any other team, why shouldn’t he be on the team?
It’s hard to envision the Yankees ever winning a championship with Boone as manager. He has managed the team to one division title in three seasons, two first-round exits and an ALCS loss, in which the Yankees won one of the last five games of that ALCS. He has the Yankees buried in the division standings this season and needing to pass two teams in the wild card standings just to be the first team outside the postseason picture.
With each mounting loss, Boone talks about needing to overcome adversity, even though the word “adversity” means “misfortune” and the Yankees haven’t experienced any misfortune. They have been healthier than they have been in four years, are greatly underachieving and being managed like a dive bar that needs to be shut down, rebuilt and rebranded by Jon Taffer. The Yankees haven’t experienced any adversity.
Either the Yankees go 50-23 and reach the postseason or Boone is no longer the manager of the Yankees and I’ll need a new manager for the 2022 All-Animosity Team. Either way, the result is a good one. (Unless the Yankees don’t reach the postseason and the team keeps him as manager, in which case I will no longer watch baseball.)
With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2021 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.
It’s baseball eve. Tomorrow there will be real, meaningful baseball and the start of a full 162-game season.
With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2021 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.
OVERS
NEW YORK YANKEES, 95.5 On paper, the Yankees are the best team in the American League. Unfortunately, “on paper” doesn’t win you the pennant or the World Series. (If it did, the last 11 baseball seasons wouldn’t have ended in disappointment.) “On paper” also doesn’t account for injuries, which with these Yankees will be sure to decide their 2021 fate. Their rotation mostly hasn’t pitched over the last two years and their lineup has been injured more than any other team in baseball over the same time. There isn’t a single Yankees everyday player who hasn’t had at least one injured list stint between 2019 and 2020.
Thankfully, the majority of the league isn’t trying to win or be competitive, and the Yankees only have a handful of teams to worry about preventing them from being the best team in the AL. I actually think 95.5 is low for this team when you consider 38 of their games will be against the Red Sox and Orioles, and another 33 games against the Tigers, Royals, Indians, Mariners and Rangers. That’s 44 percent of their schedule against bad to really bad to really, really bad teams. I think this number should have been around 98.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX, 90.5 This number is very low. The White Sox are the second-best team “on paper” in the after the Yankees, and it can certainly be argued that they are better than the Yankees. I believe the White Sox are the Yankees’ only true competition to represent the AL in the World Series. They will also play an astounding 57 games against the Royals, Tigers and Indians. If the White Sox were to play only .600 baseball in those 57 games, they would go 34-23. That means they would only have to go 57-48 against the rest of the league to get to 91 wins and beat this number. The math makes way too much sense to take the over.
SAN DIEGO PADRES, 94.5 Another number that seems low. The Padres’ rotation includes Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet. They could have the worst lineup in baseball and they would be an over-.500 team just because of their pitching, the way the Rays have been all these years. But they don’t have the worst lineup in baseball, they have a very strong lineup. The Dodgers and Padres could both win 100 games like the Yankees and Red Sox and one of the two will end up playing a one-game playoff for their season.
HOUSTON ASTROS, 87.5 Everyone is a little too down and a little too quiet on the Astros, which worries me that the Yankees will see them again in the ALCS and lose to them again in the ALCS. In 2019, the Astros were coming off a 103-win 2018 season and their win total was set at 96.5. I took the over, and they won 107 games. Are the Astros now 19.5 games worse than they were two years ago? Sure, they no longer have Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander is out for the season and George Springer is on the Blue Jays, but the Astros are still really good. They might not be what they were from 2017-19, but even in last year’s shortened season without Cole or Verlander, they were one win away from returning to the World Series for the third time in four years. I would love for nothing more than the Astros to come in well under this number. I just don’t think they will.
CHICAGO CUBS, 78.5 The Cubs aren’t a below-.500 team. Even if they spent the offseason operating as if they’re a small-market team, they still have a solid offense, which will be able to mask just how bad their pitching is. For as far as the Cubs have fallen over the last few years, the NL Central sucks, and while the Cubs won’t be a postseason team, they can certainly finish at least 79-83 to win this over.
UNDERS
BOSTON RED SOX, 80.5 The Red Sox sucked in 2019, they sucked in 2020 and they are going to suck in 2021. I never want the Red Sox to be good, but it would be nice if they were OK. Not anything great, but good enough that their games against the Yankees meant something. I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon. For the Red Sox to go over, they’re going to have to be a .500 team. They aren’t a .500 team. Not with a rotation held together by scotch tape and string, and not with a lineup that has moved on from their entire starting outfield over the last calendar year.
SEATTLE MARINERS, 72.5 This is a sad pick because the Mariners have the longest postseason drought in baseball (2001). They’re just not any good. Even in 2019 when they got off to a 13-2 start, they still finished the season 68-94. (That’s a 55-92 run after the first 15 games.) The Mariners have both Justus Sheffield and James Paxton on their roster now after they traded the uninspiring Paxton to the Yankees for Sheffield before 2019, so it would be fitting if they became a dominant 1-2 punch at the front end of the Mariners’ rotation. Even if that did happen and caused me more pain than I have already endured after being vehemently against that trade, the team still isn’t winning 73-plus games.
TEXAS RANGERS, 67.5 The Rangers might be the worst team in baseball. If they’re not, I’m going to lose a lot of money because I will likely be betting against them on most nights for the next six months. This is a 100-loss team, and 100 losses means less than 68 wins.
COLORADO ROCKIES, 63.5 How is Bud Black still managing the Rockies? As someone who frequently bets Coors Field unders, Black is the absolute worst bullpen manager in the league. He makes me feel fortunate to root for a team that has Aaron Boone as its manager. Black does things Boone wouldn’t dream of doing, and over the last three years I watched Jonathan Holder pitch in high-leverage situations and in crucial games.
The Rockies have the second-lowest win total number of all 30 teams, and rightfully so. They have two superpowers in their division and 38 games against the Dodgers and Padres means a lot of losses. In 2020, there were only two teams that played to a 100-loss pace in a 162-game season: Texas and Pittsburgh. In 2019, four teams lost at least 100 games, and in 2018, three teams lost at least 100 games. The Rockies can avoid a 100-loss season and still win this under with only 99 losses. I think 99 losses would be a good year for this roster.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES, 59.5 Yes, I’m taking the under on an expected 102-103-loss team. That’s how bad the Pirates are. I’m not even worried about the Pirates being able to hand me a loss if they go 60-102 this season. This roster is right up there with one of the all-time worst, and I would take this under even if it were set at 50.5
