Giants – Page 17 – Keefe To The City

Dec 4, 2014

NFL Week 14 Picks

It’s the home stretch. The final month and four weeks of the regular season to take us through the holidays and into the playoffs where the Giants won’t be the for the third straight year.

It was weird in the 2011 playoffs against the Falcons when the Giants were playing their first playoff game since losing to the Eagles in the 2008 playoffs to think about how much time had passed between postseason appearances for them (obviously not a lot compared to other teams, but a lot for the Giants) and if the Giants are to rebound next season and reach the playoffs again, it will be a year longer drought from Super Bowl XLVI to then than it was from 2008-11.

The Giants have gone 18-26 since winning the Super Bowl and now we are likely looking at the last month of Tom Coughlin’s 11-year tenure with the team. When the Giants were defending champions and 6-2 and back in 2012, I didn’t think two years later I would be wondering when the next time they would make the playoffs would be, but here we are looking at another postseason-less Giants season. And to make matters worse, the Patriots appear headed back to the Super Bowl and if the Giants aren’t there to stop them, who will?

(Home team in caps)

Dallas -4 over CHICAGO
When the Bears were leading the Lions 14-3 on Thanksgiving, I was not only wondering why I didn’t bet the Bears to cover, but why I didn’t hammer the Bears’ money line as well. But then that 14-3 led to a 24-3 deficit and at the end of it all, the Bears lost 34-17, were outscored 31-3 after that early lead and finished with 13 rushing yards and two more Jay Cutler interceptions. Every week that I take the Bears makes me feel like Drew Barrymore in 50 First Dates and Sunday represents Adam Sandler making me remember why I swore to no longer pick the Bears back in Week 6.

Baltimore +3 over MIAMI
I wouldn’t mind jumping on the Dolphins’ bandwagon if they were to make the playoffs as currently one of five 7-5 teams in the AFC. The problem is that jumping on their bandwagon would likely be a short ride to elimination. I don’t like the Dolphins aside from the fact that they match up well with the Patriots (which John Jastremski eluded to on the podcast this week) and that is enough for me to pull for the Dolphins since it could mean ending the Patriots’ season. But aside from that, the Dolphins aren’t a team anyone should feel confident backing, considering their narrow escape against the Jets, their meltdown against the Packers and their early-season debacles against the Bills and Chiefs. I need to see a little more than a three-point victory against a Geno Smith-led Jets team playing for nothing in Week 13 to have me put my faith in a team this January (if they make it).

CINCINNATI -3 over Pittsburgh
Two of my least favorite teams meeting this week and for some reason I’m doing the dumbest thing anyone picking NFL games by the spread can do aside from picking Jay Cutler giving points: picking Andy Dalton giving points. I’m wondering at what point of the game I will regret this pick and the over/under is currently set at the first TV timeout. But to be fair, the Bengals have won three straight, are home where they have lost once in the last two years and did go into the Superdome three weeks ago and beat the Saints, which is something as rare as getting a seat on a Metro North train that doesn’t have some unusual stain or residue on it.

Indianapolis -4 over CLEVELAND
I would like to know what this line would be if Johnny Manziel were starting. And whatever that line is, I would be taking the Browns to cover it. I’m not sure how Mike Pettine has watched Brian Hoyer recently and watched Johnny Manziel was able to do in limited time and thinks that Hoyer gives his team the best chance to win. Yes, the Browns are 7-5 this season with Hoyer throwing 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and everyone is acting as if what he is doing is improbable when they should be surprised the Browns have a 7-5 record despite his inconsistent play and should be wondering how many more wins the team could have if Manziel had been the starter. But I’m sure Pettine will bench Hoyer for Manziel at some point on Sunday with the Colts holding a commanding lead and the Browns will fall to 7-6 and waste a chance at giving themselves the best chance to win a home game in December with a playoff spot on the line.

Jacksonville +6.5 over HOUSTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

New York Giants -1.5 over TENNESSEE
I have never used this on the Giants before, but after what happened in Jacksonville, I’m not sure how a TV network can justify shelling out an exorbitant amount of money to broadcast this game when they could just donate that money to charity or pay for some kids to go to college. Here it goes:

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Carolina
I thought I knew who the Saints were. I thought they were indestructible in the Superdome and just had to worry about finding a way to win two or three road games each year to make the playoffs. But then they went and lost three straight home games for the first time since 2005 before bouncing back on the road in Pittsburgh. If the Saints can’t win at the Superdome, but can suddenly win on the road and in a place like Heinz Field then how is anyone picking games or wagering on games anymore? The Saints are definitely going to win the NFC South with a losing record and then win their first-round playoff game to make up for what happened to them in the 2010 playoffs in Seattle after a week of every talking head show debating about how unfair it is that an under-.500 team received a playoff berth.

DETROIT -10 over Tampa Bay
I was ready to write how Ford Field is becoming what the Superdome once was and then I remembered that the Bills went there and won back in Week 5. But even if Detroit’s home-field advantage isn’t what New Orleans’ has been during the Sean Payton era, this year it’s strong enough that this game will be teased down by every person making a teaser this week.

St. Louis -3 over WASHINGTON
“RGIII and Out” might be the best nickname I have ever heard in my life and I can’t wait to bring it up when I talk to my friend and Redskins fan Ray Schneider next week on the site before the Giants and Redskins meet for what should be promoted as the “Battle for the Basement” in the NFC East. With reports surfacing that Jay Gruden is done with RGIII and wants him off his team just two years removed from winning the division, the Redskins are following the Jets’ path to success: one step forward, 93 steps backward.

MINNESOTA -6 over New York Jets
I can’t stop thinking about what the Vikings’ season could have been if Teddy Bridgewater had been the starting quarterback from Week 1, Adrian Peterson didn’t behave the way he did and if Norv Turner ever realized that Cordarrelle Patterson is on his team. At the worst, their 5-7 season could easily have been flipped and at 7-5 right now, they would be in the mix for a playoff spot. But they’re not.

DENVER -10 over Buffalo
I don’t really trust the Broncos anymore and I don’t know if they will be able to overtake the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC from the Patriots over the next four weeks, and if they’re not, we might as well cancel the AFC playoffs and pencil in the Patriots for the Super Bowl. It’s time the Broncos played like the Broncos.

ARIZONA +1 over Kansas City
Bruce Arians probably regrets saying that the Cardinals can still win the Super Bowl with Drew Stanton as his quarterback, but really believing Stanton was that good wasn’t his biggest problem. His biggest problem was saying “can still win” as if the Cardinals could have won with Carson Palmer as their quarterback. The Cardinals’ three-game lead has slipped to a one-game lead in the division and after they missed out on the playoffs at 10-6 last year while the 8-7-1 Packers were in, the Cardinals deserve to have a little redemption this season.

San Francisco -9 over OAKLAND
I would take San Francisco -24 here and if they didn’t cover I wouldn’t even care. I don’t know how anyone could feel confident taking the Raiders to cover or even score after what happened last week.

Seattle +1 over PHILADELPHIA
Right now, the Patriots have the 1-seed in the AFC, which means they are pretty much going to the Super Bowl. The only two NFC teams I think that can beat them in Arizona in February are the Seahawks and Packers, so I will be rooting for both teams (two teams I don’t like) the rest of the season until one emerges from the NFC.

SAN DIEGO +4 over New England
This pick is about one thing and one thing only: getting the Broncos the 1-seed.

GREEN BAY -13 over Atlanta
The Packers are the best home team in the league right now and against a 5-7 Falcons team that is currently leading the NFC South, 13 points feels too low.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 95-96-1

Blogs • Columns Archive • Giants

Dec 2, 2014

The Tom Coughlin Conundrum

Once upon a time the Giants were 3-2, riding a three-game winning streak, making it seem like that 0-2 start against the Lions and Cardinals was an early-season hiccup and making believers out of everyone,

Once upon a time the Giants were 3-2, riding a three-game winning streak, making it seem like that 0-2 start against the Lions and Cardinals was an early-season hiccup and making believers out of everyone, including me. Then again, it’s never been hard to make a believer out of me when it comes to the Giants.

Back-to-back losses to start the season? No problem, they’ll win the next three. Three straight wins over teams that are currently a combined 14-22? We’re the team to beat. Back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Cowboys before the bye week? We’ll use the bye to get healthy and bounce back. Run out of the building in Indianapolis? We just have to go 2-1 in the next three games. Meltdown in Seattle? We can beat the 49ers and Cowboys. Losses to the 49ers and Cowboys to fall to 3-8? We can win out and save Tom Coughlin’s job. Blowing a 21-point lead to the one-win Jaguars to lose a seventh straight game? (Crickets … crickets … crickets.)

That’s a lot of irrational thinking for someone who has spent his entire life watching this team pull the rug out from underneath me except for two unbelievable runs. And it’s because of those two runs that the world was kept safe from hearing about the 2007 Patriots every day forever and from keeping Brady and Belichick from immortality once again in 2011. If not for those two postseason runs, Brady and Belichick would likely be 5-0 in the Super Bowl and if the Packers had won the NFC Championship Game in 2007 or the 49ers had won it in 2011, they would be. And it’s because of those two runs that I believe in this team when I shouldn’t and it’s because of those two runs that even without the playoffs for a third straight year, I kept wanting Tom Coughlin to be the Giants’ head coach in 2015. But after Sunday, thinking that might be my most irrational thought of all.

Here’s how every Giants season has gone during the Tom Coughlin era:

2004: The Giants start the year 5-2 with Kurt Warner starting and showing Eli the ropes. They lose back-to-back games to fall to 5-4 and start planning for the future by letting Eli start, which causes unrest and division in the locker room. Eli goes 1-6 in his first seven starts in the league, but wins the final game of the year against the Cowboys. The Giants finish the year at 6-10 and don’t make the playoffs.

2005: It’s Eli’s first full year. The Giants go 6-2 in the first half of the season then go 5-3 in the second half of the season. They make the playoffs for the first time since blowing a 24-point lead against the 49ers in the 2002 playoffs. The Giants lose 23-0 at home in the first round of the playoffs, as Eli goes 10-for-18 for 113 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. The Giants finish with just 132 total yards in the game. Bad finish.

2006: The Giants start the year 6-2, but are now 7-7, and entering Week 16, for them to clinch a playoff berth, they need one of two scenarios to happen.

1. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + Seattle win or tie.

OR

2. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + San Francisco loss or tie.

The Giants lose 30-7 to the Saints, but the Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks and 49ers all lose too, and the Giants basically hit the biggest parlay ever. Only the Eagles win, so the Giants just need to win in Week 17 against the Redskins and they make the playoffs at 8-8.

The Giants beat the Redskins to get into the playoffs at 8-8 thanks to a Giants single-game rushing record of 234 yards (on just 23 carries) from Tiki Barber. The Giants are just the ninth team in history to reach the postseason without a winning record. After starting the year 6-2, they finish the year 2-6. Then they lose 23-20 to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs on a David Akers 38-yard field goal with no time remaining.

2007: They start the year 0-2, but win six in a row after that. After their bye in Week 9, they finish the year 4-4, and with a 10-6 record, they are the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. They run the table on the road in the NFC playoffs, beating the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers and then beat the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

2008: They’re 11-1, but are now without Plaxico Burress for the rest of the year. The Giants finish the regular season 1-3 (they would have finished 0-4 if John Kasay didn’t miss a field goal for the Panthers in Week 16), but still get the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. They lose in the divisional round at home to the Eagles 23-11.

2009: They start the year 5-0, and then lose four games in a row. They come off their bye week to beat the Falcons in Week 11, but lose four of their last six games in embarrassing fashion to finish the year at 8-8, and miss the playoffs.

2010: They’re 6-2 after Week 9, but then they lose to Jon Kitna and the 2-6 Cowboys at home, and then they lose in Philadelphia the following week thanks to five turnovers and an Eli dive that turns into a fumble with the Giants down by seven and 2:51 left in the game. At 6-4, the Giants win three in a row, and have a chance to lock up the NFC East in Week 15 at home against the Eagles. They blow a 21-point lead with 7:18 left and lose. They have a chance to rebound the following week and still make the playoffs, but they lose 45-17 in Green Bay. In Week 17, they need a win against the Redskins and a Bears win over the Packers. They beat the Redskins 17-14 on the road, but the Bears lose to the Packers.

2011: The season was a Tony Romo to Miles Austin completion away from being maybe the worst collapse of them all. After losing to the 49ers, the Giants lost the next three games to start the second half of their season 0-4, dropping them to 6-6. We all know what happened in the final five minutes and 41 seconds in Dallas in Week 14 and after that, but no one knew all of that would happen. No one could fathom that all of that would happen and happen essentially the same way it did four years before.

2012: They start off 2-2, but win four straight to improve to 6-2. They lose four of their next six, but set themselves up where back-to-back wins in the final two weeks against the Ravens and Eagles will clinch them a playoff spot. They lose to the Ravens 33-14 (a week after losing 34-0 to the Falcons) and wind up beating the Eagles 42-7 in Week 17, but it doesn’t matter. A 9-7 season.

2013: They lose their first six games of the season before winning the next four. Somehow at 4-6 they control their own destiny if they can beat the Cowboys in Week 12. They have their chances to win the game, but tied at 21 with four seconds left, the Cowboys kick a 35-yard field goal to end the Giants’ season. After starting 0-4, they win seven of 10, but the 7-9 record is the worst since 2004.

And then there’s this season, which didn’t even have a second half to collapse.

Eli Manning was right when he said that Tom Coughlin didn’t fumble the ball like Eli did or the way Larry Donnell did. It wasn’t Tom Coughlin who couldn’t stop the Jaguars from getting down the field in the final minute to kick a go-ahead field goal. But it wasn’t just about the Jaguars game and it’s not about the Giants’ misfortune of having the most player on injured reserve in the entire NFL this season. It’s about a 3-2 start that’s become 3-9 this season. It’s about the 0-6 start last year and the 6-2 start that became a 9-7 finish in 2012. It’s about the second-half collapses that happened before the last two years when there wasn’t even a second half to collapse and it’s about Tom Coughlin being the oldest coach in the NFL and the idea that 11 years straight coaching any NFL team should be calculated in dog years and that 11 years straight coaching an NFL team in New York should be calculated goldfish years. Coughlin should be commended for his longevity in this city and should get to go out on his own terms, but that’s unlikely to happen now.

It’s not that all of the non-2007/2011 seasons are Tom Coughlin’s fault and it’s not like he is the sole reason for the team’s constant underachieving. The problem with the Giants isn’t even necessarily Tom Coughlin at all. The real problem is the situation the ownership has created.

Ownership gave their 11-year, two-time champion, 68-year-old head coach a first-year offensive coordinator he didn’t want and their general manager gave him an offensive line unfit for the NFL and a pass rush that’s mostly non-existent. They set themselves up for a scenario where their next head coach is either going to be someone with just one year of coordinator experience (Ben McAdoo) or one where a new head coach is going to have to agree to have McAdoo on his staff in order to be the Giants’ coach. Because after one year and with Eli Manning on his way to potentially posting career bests in completion percentage, touchdowns and interceptions, McAdoo isn’t going anywhere. So a new head coach (if it’s not McAdoo) is going to start in the same position Coughlin will have left in and after Sunday’s 2006-loss-to-Tennessee-esque performance, it’s likely that Coughlin is going to pay for the Giants’ fall from Super Bowl champions to 9-7 to 7-9 to whatever embarrassing record they finish with this season. And for the first time since the end of the 2010 season, I’m unsure of what I want when it comes to Coughlin as the head coach of the Giants.

The following is what I wrote at the end of the 2010 season.

This is what scares me about Tom Coughlin. I have wanted Tom Coughlin out several times, but who’s to say that Bill Cowher or anyone else they bring in will be better? Coughlin is the only coach that Eli Manning has every played under in the NFL, and I don’t know if right now is the right time to be changing the whole landscape of the coaching staff at this stage of Eli’s career.

There are many times when I wish I could confront Coughlin and just say, “Are you effing kidding me?” Like when he wasn’t ready for the Eagles’ onside kick or when he ripped into Matt Dodge in the middle of the field after DeSean Jackson’s punt return. Joe Girardi’s pitching changes usually get the most four-letter words out of my mouth, but Tom Coughlin’s decision making this season has taken the belt away from Girardi.

If Coughlin is fired, then so be it.

And if Coughlin isn’t fired, I’m OK with that too.

This time around it’s the same thing.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 13, 2014

NFL Week 11 Picks

I usually make the picture for the weekly picks of either Eli Manning or Tom Coughlin, but I couldn’t help but choose Perry Fewell looking like most people walking through McCarran International Airport in Las

I usually make the picture for the weekly picks of either Eli Manning or Tom Coughlin, but I couldn’t help but choose Perry Fewell looking like most people walking through McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas on their way to their return flight home. Fewell’s look and demeanor sum up how his defense played last week in Seattle against the run, how the Giants’ season is going and how this picks season has been going for the most part.

I’m running out of time to right the ship that has been devastated by one bad week back in Week 2 and it’s going to take the opposite of that Week 2 performance to fully recover. I have been waiting eight weeks, or basically half the season, for that week to come and it hasn’t, but it needs to.

(Home team in caps)

MIAMI -4 over Buffalo
Last week, I picked the Bengals thinking they would continue to be the Saints 2.0 with their play at Paul Brown Stadium, but that didn’t go so well. (At least I was able to salvage my pick by taking the Browns money line at +250, which is all that really matters.) But this week it’s time get back on track with the old bread and butter that is Thursday Night Football.

CLEVELAND -3.5 over Houston
Well, it looks like the Johnny Manziel era isn’t going to start soon in Cleveland and maybe it never will at this rate. I wish the Jets had taken Manziel with the 18th pick in the draft because it would have meant the Johnny Manziel NFL era would already be underway and it would have meant absolute chaos and a media circus around the Jets, which is exactly what Woody Johnson wants and craves. But if I can’t beat the Browns by picking against them in hopes of Johnny Football becoming the starting quarterback, I might as well join them.

MINNESOTA +3.5 over Chicago
I will pick any team against the Bears right now. Any team. It doesn’t matter who.

KANSAS CITY -2 over Seattle
I have no idea what to do with this game and that should mean “take the points” but I have seen what happens when Russell Wilson has to throw the ball and the Chiefs’ defense isn’t going to roll over like the Giants did a week ago.

CAROLINA -1 over Atlanta
The Falcons are 3-6 and two of their three wins came against the Buccaneers. So if the Buccaneers didn’t exist, the Falcons would be a one-win team, so they should be treated as a one-win team. The disgusting part about the one-win Falcons is that they are still not only alive but they are one game, ONE GAME, back of the Saints for the NFC South lead. I SAID ONE GAME! The NFC South has become the 2010 NFC West and there’s a chance that the South could be won by a team with possibly a .500 record at best. But it would be pretty amazing if the 7-9 Saints (or the 8-8 Saints) host the wild-card Seahawks during Wild-Card Weekend at the Superdome where no team is going to go to and win a playoff game.

As for the Panthers, what’s a more undeserving nickname in sports: James Shields as “Big Game James” or Cam Newton as “Superman”?

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Cincinnati
So you know that thing I always say about the Saints? This thing:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

Well, I can’t use that anymore. But I can use a new version of it!

The Saints’ have last one home game with Sean Payton as head coach since Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have all but one of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

Andy Dalton going on the road after going 10-for-33 for 86 yards and three interceptions and not just on the road, but to the Superdome of all places? The local games and the Red Zone channel might not be enough for me this weekend, knowing that this game is on, I might have to buy DirecTV just for it.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins are 3-6. Their wins are against the Jaguars, the Titans and the Tony Romo-less Cowboys. RG III has played two games this year and the Redskins have lost both. Which of those facts could give anyone the idea that they should be favored by more than a touchdown against any team?

Denver -10.5 over ST. LOUIS
I’m sure Peyton Manning misses playing in a dome in a controlled environment where the weather is always perfect and wind is non-existent. Peyton might not be at his best when he’s at Gillette Stadium or the stage is its biggest, but he is at his best when he’s in a perfect setting.

NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5 over San Francisco
Now that the season is over (well, unless the Giants run the table … and even that might not be enough with the way the NFC is this year), I don’t have any real reason to pick the Giants.

Oakland +10.5 over SAN DIEGO
At 5-1, the Chargers were considered to possibly be the best team in the NFL, at least for a week. But since Week 6 their season has unraveled with three straight losses to the Chiefs (23-20), Broncos (35-21) and Dolphins (37-0!!!) I always, always, always take the points when the Raiders play the Chargers except when I didn’t back in Week 6 and the Chargers barely got past the winless Raiders with a 31-28 win. This time I’m going back to the basics and that is picking against Philip Rivers to cover spreads.

GREEN BAY -6.5 over Philadelphia
Mark Sanchez did to me on Monday night what I dared him to do, which is the same thing I dared Colt McCoy to do a few Monday nights ago. To my defense, I made my pick in that Cowboys-Redskins game before Tony Romo was ruled out for the game and I made my pick for the Eagles-Panthers game under the assumption that the Panthers were an average football team capable of shutting down a quarterback the Jets chose Geno Smith over. Now the entire world has seemingly forgot how bad Sanchez was with the Jets and he is suddenly a fan favorite in Philadelphia, a city that preys on the exact type of player Sanchez was with the Jets. That Mark Sanchez will show up in Green Bay.

Detroit +1 over ARIZONA
When Drew Stanton filled in for Carson Palmer in Weeks 2-4, the Cardinals knew it was temporary and he knew it was temporary. There wasn’t any pressure on a backup quarterback, who hadn’t started a game in four years, to beat the Giants or 49ers (which he did) or try to be competitive against the Broncos (which he really wasn’t). But Stanton came out of that three-game stretch at 2-1 and two years after being cut by the Jets in favor of Tim Tebow, he proved that he could not only be a viable backup in the event of another Palmer injury, but that he could win in the league. The difference now is that there isn’t a light at the end of the tunnel for Stanton’s starting time. Palmer isn’t coming back this season and who knows what he will be like next year as a 35-year-old coming off a torn ACL. Stanton is now expected to win because he did in September and he’s expected to lead a 7-1 team to the playoffs and his head coach didn’t do him any favors by saying the Cardinals could win the Super Bowl with him as their quarterback. No pressure or anything, Drew.

New England +2.5 over INDIANAPOLIS
It would probably be a good idea to stop making the Patriots underdogs.

Last week: 6-7-0
Season: 69-77-1

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 6, 2014

NFL Week 10 Picks

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving from the couch on a football Sunday, going out, paying for a round-trip cab, admission to the show and food and drinks or staying on the couch and finish watching a three-hour free comedy show live from Seattle on FOX. As much of a joke the Giants-Seahawks game will likely and how many laughs it should produce for non-Giants fans, I think it’s a better idea to get out out of the apartment just as the Seahawks backups finish off the Giants as the Giants finally start to throw the ball for the majority of their plays once the game is out of reach.

Speaking of comedy, this week on his Monday Morning Podcast, Bill Burr said, “If you bet on football this year, you’re out of your mind. At this point you should just cut your losses and go home.” I wish I could, Bill. I wish I could go. But there are still eight weeks of the regular season to pick and then the playoffs.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI -6.5 over Cleveland
The Bengals have done their transformation to become the AFC Saints in that the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are a much different team than the Outside the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are. The Bengals are 4-0-1 at home this year and 1-2 on the road after going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road last year. This season, the Bengals’ average home score is a 30.8-20.2 win and their average road score is a 28.7-13.3 loss. That’s good news if the Bengals can win the NFC North and play their first playoff game at home. The problem is the Bengals is five or their last seven games are on the road.

Miami +3 over DETROIT
It’s never a good idea to buy into the Miami Dolphins. You would be better off buying into a start-up newspaper in 2014 than the Dolphins given their history of strong starts and late-season collapses, but the problem with this game is the Lions are the Dolphins of the NFC. So I can either buy into the start-up newspaper in 2014 (Dolphins) or pay for an AOL account in 2014 (Lions). That’s why I’m taking the points.

Buffalo +2.5 over KANSAS CITY
If the Giants aren’t going to do anything this year, which they’re not, then I might as well be an honorary Bills fan for the rest of the season. I can’t get behind the Browns because them winning means Johnny Manziel’s career will only be delayed longer and I can’t get behind the Chiefs because of Alex Smith even though it would make me happy to know that the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans would have to watch Andy Reid win the Super Bowl. Aside from the Bills, those are the other long-suffering franchises that look like postseason contenders that I don’t have any direct hatred against, but how could I not pull for the Bills and Kyle “David Grohl” Orton to go on a run with the Bills?

San Francisco +5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are going to win this game. That’s a fact. How do I know this? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

BALTIMORE -10 over Tennessee
I have done everything I can to continuously pick against the Ravens, but there are times when you have to see the difference between right and wrong and smart and dumb. And taking Tennessee, even to cover a double-digit spread, is dumb though I’m sure every sharp in Vegas would disagree given the state of the NFL.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets have lost eight straight games. They have fans wasting money on planes to fly over practice and promote John Idzik’s firing while other fans are wasting their money to use a billboard outside MetLife to promote the same cause. Michael Vick, who clearly wants no part of actually playing football anymore and would rather just hang out on the sidelines and collect a paycheck (who can blame him?) is starting over the most recent Jets franchise quarterback. And their head coach continues to say he sees good things each week even though the team’s only win came in Week 1 over the still-winless Raiders.

The Steelers were 3-3 and coming off a 21-point loss to the Browns before winning three straight games and saving their season and putting themselves in prime position to return to the playoffs. They have scored 94 points in the last two weeks against two contenders in the Colts and Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 862 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception in those two games. And they have possibly the best receiver in the league in Antonio Brown ready to face the worst secondary imaginable.

So what does all of this mean? It means that this game will likely be decided by a field goal because the NFL is insane. But it also means it’s no time to be backing the Jets and asking them to cover anything less than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +2 over ATLANTA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -12.5 over OAKLAND
I don’t want to say Peyton Manning is a fraud, so I will let other people say it for me. But the best regular-season quarterback in history went into Gillette Stadium and got embarrassed once again last week. Sure, he put up 429 yards and got his numbers in before it was over, but his team lost by 22 points in a game that could be the difference in a trip to the Super Bowl and an AFC Championship Game loss because of home-field advantage. I picked the Broncos last week because I didn’t want to back the Patriots even though I envisioned the game that played out playing out because it has so many times Peyton has gone to New England. Let’s hope that performance doesn’t mean a Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots because then I’m done with Peyton.

ARIZONA -7.5 over St. Louis
The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football?

I wrote that sentence out with both a period and a question mark because after I wrote it the first time, I read it back to myself like Ron Burgundy reading a line on the prompter incorrectly because of a misplaced question mark at the end of it. Are the Cardinals the best team in football? Their record says they are at 7-1, leading the NFC West that was supposed to be for Seattle or San Francisco to win. I’m happy for the Cardinals after missing the playoffs last year despite a 10-win season while the Packers played a first-round home game at 8-7-1 for winning the NFC North, but I’m not sure a team with Carson Palmer as their quarterback can ever be considered the best team in the league at any time even if their record says they are.

New York Giants +9.5 over SEATTLE
The Giants’ offense currently consists of a first-round pick wide receiver who has played four career games, two wide receivers who can’t catch, a tight end who played quarterback in college, a tight end who was out of football in 2013, a rookie running back and a running back who thought his NFL career was over a little over a year ago. The absolute worst place for a team with that offensive personnel to go is Seattle, so if you’re thinking of sitting back at 4:25 on Sunday and watching the Giants, you might want to make other plans for around 5:00. I think I’m going to.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Chicago
The last time the Bears won in Green Bay was Oct. 7, 2007 in Week 5. It was Brian Griese playing for a benched Rex Grossman against Brett Favre. The Bears have cost me picks and actual money so many times this season that I will be pulling for a Packers blowout on Sunday night as if it were the Giants playing in the Super Bowl.

Carolina +6 over PHILADELPHIA
The Panthers aren’t good. But you’re asking me to pick Mark Sanchez to win a game he starts by a touchdown.

Last Week: 4-9-0
Season: 63-70-1

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 30, 2014

NFL Week 9 Picks

I can’t believe we are in Week 9 of the season. Let’s recap the first eight weeks. Week 1: 8-8-0 Week 2: 4-12-0 Week 3: 9-7-0 Week 4: 6-6-1 Week 5: 10-5-0 Week 6: 6-9-0

I can’t believe we are in Week 9 of the season. Let’s recap the first eight weeks.

Week 1: 8-8-0
Week 2: 4-12-0
Week 3: 9-7-0
Week 4: 6-6-1
Week 5: 10-5-0
Week 6: 6-9-0
Week 7: 8-7-0
Week 8: 8-7-0

That’s four winning weeks, two losing weeks and two .500 weeks. The only problem is that one 4-12-0 losing week in Week 2 has been too deep of a hole to climb out of so far. Thankfully, there are still nine regular-season weeks and four weeks of playoffs to pick.

With a busy week and some travel, I decided to use lines I previously wrote this season to help pick week’s game. I consider it the equivalent of Mark Teixeira needing a day off because his legs are tired from being on base or Mark Teixeira not playing because of light-headedness or Mark Teixeira not playing because of his rib cage or Mark Teixeira not playing not playing because he hurt his pinky sliding into home. If only how we are paid for our services could be equivalent.

(Home team in caps)

CAROLINA +2.5 over New Orleans
When you take the Saints out of the Superdome, they lose.

CLEVELAND -7 over Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay bandwagon has been pulled out of service like the New York subway cars with bed bugs.

Arizona -1 over DALLAS
With just two teams between the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles going to the postseason this year, if the Giants are going to make it, they are going to need the Cowboys to start being on the other end of close games.

HOUSTON +2.5 over Philadelphia
Is there any doubt that the Week 17 Giants-Eagles game will decided a playoff spot in the NFC? OK, maybe that sentence would have been better suited to be written in 2008 or 2009 or 2010, but if I’m going to keep the Giants’ playoff hopes alive that means they are going to need the Eagles to start losing.

KANSAS CITY -9.5 over New York Jets
The Jets are currently tied with the Jaguars for the second-worst record in the league and they still have Buffalo twice, Miami twice, New England, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Tennessee on the schedule. I’m thinking the Jets finish at 4-12.

CINCINNATI -10.5 over Jacksonville
The Bengals are becoming the AFC Saints and Paul Brown Stadium is becoming the Superdome.

San Diego +1.5 over MIAMI
I want to believe in the Dolphins because a good Dolphins team means a better chance the Patriots or Jets don’t win the AFC East.

MINNESOTA +1 over Washington
If the Vikings had entered the season with Bridgewater as their starter and utilized Cordarrelle Patterson better through the first seven weeks and Adrian Peterson hadn’t put his life in its current position then who knows where the Vikings might be with their offensive weapons and their strong defense?

SAN FRANCISCO -10 over St. Louis
I just hope the Rams aren’t saving their NFC East wins for when they play the Giants in Week 16, which would totally eff up the Giants’ postseason chances and end up being the icing on the cake in the latest Tom Coughlin era second-half collapse.

Denver -3.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Peyton Manning lives for these games. (That was the best I could find even though Peyton doesn’t play well in these games since I haven’t said anything good about New England this season.)

SEATTLE -13.5 over Oakland
The road team on Thursday Night Football has the worst disadvantage of any team in the league other than the Raiders in any game they play.

PITTSBURGH -1.5 over Baltimore
So why am I picking them? Because that’s how badly I want the Ravens to lose.

NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 over Indianapolis
This is for the season.

Last Week: 8-7-0
Season: 59-61-1