Email Exchanges – Page 9 – Keefe To The City

Aug 1, 2014

The Rivalry Continues to Unravel

The Yankees and Red Sox haven’t played a meaningful summer series in a while, so I decided to talk to Mike Hurley of CBS Boston about the fading rivalry.

On Friday morning on YES, the July 1, 2004 game between the Yankees and Red Sox was playing on Yankees Classics (otherwise known as the Derek Jeter-goes-diving-into-the-stands game). That game happened just over 10 years ago and I can still remember where I was when watching it, having attended the Yankees’ win over the Red Sox the night before. But as the rivalry half-heartedly coasts through another season, it makes me realize how far removed we are from the battles of 2003 and 2004, and even 2005, 2006 and 2007. If I wasn’t going to be at Fenway Park this weekend, there’s no chance that 10 years from now in 2024 I would remember where I was for an August Yankees-Red Sox game.

With the Yankees still fighting for a playoff berth and the Red Sox trading off nearly their entire team and completey changing their roster for the second time in two years, I emailed Mike Hurley of CBS Boston because that’s what I do when the Yankees and Red Sox play each other.

Keefe: Nine months ago the Red Sox completed the most improbable season in major sports history by winning a World Series they had no business winning. The real Impossible Dream season of 2013 was sandwiched between a 93-loss 2012 season and what might be another 93-loss season in 2014.

Aside from Jacoby Ellsbury signing with the Yankees and Jarrod Saltalamacchia signing with the Marlins (but who cares?) the Red Sox returned basically the same team, position-player wise in 2014 and the same rotation. But since last week the Red Sox have now traded Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront, Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes and John Lackey. All three pitchers responsible for the four wins in the World Series are gone.

Is this August 2012 all over again? Are the Red Sox going to hit a 16-team NFL parlay in 2015 and win the World Series again?

Hurley: Wow, a presumptuous Neil Keefe just fires off an email on trade deadline day and expects me to have the time to respond. So bold. So typically Neil.

The answer to your question is yes, obviously the Red Sox are going to win the World Series in 2015 behind Yoenis Cespedes and Joe Kelly. Don’t worry about the starting rotation — starting pitchers aren’t important! That’s the Red Sox’ new philosophy, I guess. Either that, or they really like their pitching prospects. We’ll see at least one of them this weekend against New York.

Keefe: To be honest, I didn’t think you would answer. I thought you would be too upset about the Red Sox trading off every player on their team including their 30-year-old, left-handed ace and franchise staple. Then I remembered that you don’t care about the Red Sox the way you used to and that’s because of the ownership group.

Sure, you make jokes from time to time about my love for Derek Jeter, but like we have talked about countless times, he has been the shortstop of the Yankees for basically our entire we-can-understand-baseball lives. The Red Sox don’t have that player. They haven’t had that player in a long, long time. For any Red Sox fan that’s a child to about mid-to-late 30s, they haven’t had that player. Roger Clemens left. Mo Vaughn left. Nomar was traded. The closest thing I guess would be David Ortiz, who started his career with the Twins, but Jon Lester had a chance to be that guy.

I don’t get why Lester and the Red Sox couldn’t come to an agreement and I’m guessing that it had to do with the team and not the player. The Red Sox were adamant about not wanting to pay pitchers who were 30-plus years of age, but when it came to their ace and a two-time World Series champion, you would think they would have made an exception. The Red Sox have a bajillion dollars and could have afforded to blow some money on a guy that helped bring them two titles in seven years. But money is also why they didn’t do because they know that even Lester were to be traded (which he was) and signs elsewhere in the winter, they are still going make money. People in Boston aren’t going to stop going to Red Sox games and buying merchandise and singing “Sweet Caroline” whether Lester is on the team or not. This ownership group has taken so many negative PR hits over the years and shrugged them off only to make more and more money and sell more and more Fenway Park bricks that they must have thought, “What’s another bad story about us?”

Please tell me you still have a soul and are upset that Lester isn’t going to be a lifetime Red Sox. Please don’t tell me some BS about how it’s a business and they got a good return for him.

Hurley: Well I think you’re wrong to say that Red Sox fans are going to keep filling Fenway Park and keep spending money by the buckets. It’s true that Fenway is still jammed full of idiots screaming “SWEET CAROLINE!!!” in the middle of the eighth inning when the Sox are getting trounced by a sorry-ass team like the Cubs. Yes, that happens. But what’s happened over the past few years is that the Red Sox are getting less and less cool.

You’re aware that I turned 21 in 2007, so I obviously started going to bars on a regular basis that year. You’ll also recall that the Red Sox won the World Series that year. The Red Sox were on top of the world. Everywhere you looked, the Red Sox were there — on hats, shirts, TVs, tattoos, everything. They owned the region.

From 2007-2011, you could not find one television in a bar NOT tuned to the Red Sox in the Boston area.

But in the past few years, I’ve been in a lot of bars and restaurants during Red Sox games, and the TV hasn’t been showing the game. It’s been showing random things — nothing, really — and nobody in the bar seems to care. This may seem like a small thing, but I think it’s pretty indicative of the Red Sox’ current state in the area. They’re just not hot anymore.

And, as you point out, they’re shipping away a guy who grew up with the organization, won two World Series, beat cancer and has simply been the man for the past nine years. All because they’re afraid he won’t be spectacular for six years? It’s pretty weak.

I understood why they let Ellsbury walk for big money last winter, and I understand the business decision to not take the risk on Lester. At the same time, if you don’t extend yourself for Lester, who on earth do you extend yourself for?

(Unless the Red Sox have a secret plan to sign him in the offseason, no matter what. If so, that would be nuts and hilarious and awesome.)

Keefe: I don’t think Jon Lester is going to sign back with the Red Sox as much as some delusional Red Sox fans do. The whole point of him extending his contract for a “hometown discount” would have been that he would remain a Red Sox for life. Now that he is with Oakland, the lifetime Red Sox part of the equation is gone and with him being an impending free agent, he is going to chase the money. Some team is going to offer him seven years (Hello, Yankees!) and when Jon Lester sees some $150-plus million deal starting him in the face he is going to take it. Let’s not forget that Lester is finishing up a five-year, $30 million deal and from 2009 through this season it’s taken him the same amount of time to earn nearly what CC Sabathia is this season to pitch horribly and then not pitch at all.

The best-case scenario for the Yankees was that Lester would end up with a team that has no intention of extending or re-signing him and that’s what happened. Instead of landing with the Dodgers or Cardinals, he’s in Oakland. So I want to thank the Red Sox for trading him there and not to a big-market team where he might have stayed.

You should come down to New York next season for his first start in the Bronx.

Hurley: I might do that. I like Jon Lester. That’s really rare for a baseball player, I feel. They’re all self-absorbed, rich-out-of-their-minds awful people, for the most part. Lester is a decent guy, the kind of person that makes you wonder what the hell he spends all that money on. I don’t see Lester cruising in a Ferrari during the offseasons, you know?

Any way, I’m glad you didn’t really ask me anything in that email, because I have an important topic I need to bring up here.

The New York Yankees. Big team, lots of fans, right? Lots of people care about the Yanks, safe to say? Large following? People want to see them win and everything? OK.

Then how in God’s name is everybody OK with having the Ghost of Derek Jeter play shortstop down the stretch while putting Stephen Drew at second base, a position that a trained monkey can play?

Derek Jeter is not as awful at shortstop as everyone in America likes to make him out to be, but he is still most definitely bad at it. He’s old, and he’s just gotten worse and worse at the position for the past seven years. Yet because he’s JEETS, and because of Re2pect, the Yankees are going to waste literally the only useful thing Stephen Drew can do on a baseball field? That’s insane.

You’re going to have a second baseman who hits .170. That’s solid. There weren’t any big-name second basemen on the free-agent market last winter, were there?

Keefe: I kind of sort of remember there being a big-name second baseman being available last winter. What was his name? Brian Roberts? Kelly Johnson? Ah, I forget it. It will come to me though.

The Yankees should have signed Robinson Cano for 10 years and $240 million. Who cares? I don’t. It’s not my money. Anyone who doesn’t have ownership in the Yankees shouldn’t care either. The Yankees are in the mix for the AL East despite having 80 percent of their Opening Day rotation on the disabled list and a middle of the order that is a disaster. WAR or math or science might suggest that even with Cano the Yankees wouldn’t be leading the division, but I know they would. Roberts and Johnson left every person on the base imaginable and played a collective horrible defense costing the Yankees several games. They should have signed Cano and worried about him sucking at the end of his deal later on. Instead we have Jacoby Ellsbury, who needs days off here and there and has given new meaning to the word “streaky” and Carlos Beltran, who might be softer than Mark Teixeira.

Derek Jeter should be playing shortstop over Drew because he’s Derek Jeter and I don’t care if mid-90s Omar Vizquel walks through the door, Derek Jeter is playing shortstop. Have some effing RE2PECT would you, Michael?

The Drews are like the Weavers to me in that I picture their family driving around in a station wagon yelling, “WHO RULES? DREW RULES! WHO RULES? DREW RULES! DREW RULES! DREW RULES!” like the O’Doyles in Billy Madison.

I’m not happy the Yankees got Drew and that they might re-sign him and he could be playing shortstop next season, but things could be worse. They could have traded for John Lackey.

Hurley: I legitimately laughed out loud at the DREW RULES scenario. It’s very likely the case.

I just feel like there is RE2PECT, and then there is stupid. And if you really RE2PECT Derek Jeter and want to send him out a champion, you should field the best team possible. That means Jeter gets penciled into the lineup with the letters “D” and “H” next to his name every night. To do otherwise is pretty delusional, to borrow a term from you.

I looked it up for you — Brian Roberts hit .242 with RISP. Johnson hit .280.

Do you know what Drew has hit with RISP? He’s hit .154, Neil. One-fifty-four. He also hit .111 last year in 16 playoff games.

So hey, enjoy Stephen Drew. I’m sure he’s going to be awesome.

Keefe: Well then it must have been my imagination that Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson were as bad as they were, but I know they were. But thanks for sharing Drew’s average with RISP for me to make me feel even better about the Yankees’ trade deadline moves.

One of the biggest takeaways from deadline day was how ecstatic Red Sox fans were about Yoenis Cespedes coming to Boston. Unless I missed the news that Major League Baseball will no longer decide the season based on 162 actual games and will use Home Run Derby to determine the champion, I’m not sure failing to re-sign your 30-year-old left-handed ace and trading him for a .250 hitter who strikes out a lot, but can hit mammoth home runs is the best move, but hey, starting pitching in baseball isn’t that big of a deal. I also find it odd how many people were instantly fine with Lester being traded for a bat, considering what Lester meant to the team and the fact that Cespedes will be a free agent after 2015.

Yoenis Cespedes woke up on Thursday morning on the best team in Major League Baseball. Now he is on the worst team in the AL East with nothing to play for over the next two months.

Good times never seemed so good!

Hurley: Yeah, I mean, I think the initial excitement was based on the fact that:

A) Everyone knew Lester was getting traded, and
B) Everyone expected the Red Sox to simply receive a package of prospects in return.

To see the Sox get an established big league hitter who can mash, it provides some excitement. I don’t think anyone thought, “Holy crap, we got Cespedes! Next stop – championship!” I think it was more, “Holy hell, the Red Sox actually got someone I’ve heard of! And he doesn’t suck!”

Cespedes has more home runs this season than all Red Sox outfielders combined. (Even more if you factor in HR Derby dingers, like Jayson Stark did yesterday!) He provides the Red Sox with something they desperately need. If it works out this year, he’s someone they can sign long term to hit bombs. Or maybe they can move him down to Miami, where he’ll be the biggest star in the history of Miami, for Giancarlo Stanton, or something wild like that. You never know. There’s reason to be excited for Cespedes, even though none of it has to do with being competitive at all this year.

Me personally, I was pissed off that they got Cespedes. There I was, ready to see everyone traded away and ready to see tickets for the next two months become cheaper than dirt. (I bought tickets in April for $3. THREE DOLLARS!) I was so ready for a summer like 2012 again, where the stands are filled almost entirely with just baseball fans and not yahoos who think going to the ballgame is cool. Alas, adding Cespedes should keep people interested for a few extra weeks, and I might not get my cheap seats until mid-September. These are the things I care about.

Blogs • Email Exchanges

Jul 25, 2014

It’s Been a While Since Yankees Worried About Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are back to being relevant and are now another team the Yankees have to worry about in the postseason race.

The Yankees had to get off to a hot start to begin the “second half” and after going 6-1 (it could have and should have been 7-0 if Joe Girardi wanted it to be) against the Reds and Rangers, they are back in the division race and lead the race for the second wild card. I was strongly against the addition of a second wild card, but I might have to rethink that if it’s the only way for the Yankees to get in the postseason this year. Even with their recent run, the Yankees still have the Blue Jays right on their heels.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting this weekend in the Bronx, I did an email exchange with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter to talk about the Blue Jays being back in playoff contention, how they have dealt with the injuries to their lineup and if they should try to deal for David Price.

Keefe: I can’t remember the last time the Blue Jays were this involved in the playoff race at this point in the season. I kind of remember them hanging by a thread late in the 2008 when the Yankees’ season was over and I was hoping that my some sort of miracle they would go on a run and prevent the Red Sox from reaching the playoffs. Unfortunately it didn’t happen. But they were barely in the race. This year they are in prime position to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1993 with 59 games still left, trailing by 3 in the division and tied with the Yankees as of Friday morning for the second wild-card spot.

This would be quite the story if I wasn’t a Yankees fan and didn’t need the Blue Jays to fall apart, so that the Yankees’ path to the postseason would be easier. But I am a Yankees fan and do need your Blue Jays out of the race.

However, since the Blue Jays are part of this now three-team race for the division and five-team race (right now) for the second wild card, it means we have a meaningfuk Yankees-Blue Jays series (for both teams) in July and will likely have a meaningful series between the two in August and September.

What’s it been like to have the Blue Jays back in contention and how do you feel about their postseason chances?

Dakers: Oh it has been good, depending on the moment. Three wins in a row over the Red Sox felt good. Blue Jays fans, on the whole, seem to be pessimists, but 21 years since the last World Series will do that to a fanbase.

How I feel about their playoff chances changes with by the hour. Over the last month, it has been pretty tough, losing your 4, 5 and 6 hitters would be tough for any team. But, as we get closer to their return, you get the feeling the team could go on a run and keep in it right to the end. It would help if the Orioles would lose occasionally, but I do feel good our chances.

Keefe: Eighty percent of the Yankees’ Opening Day rotation is on the disabled list, Mark Teixeira is injured again (shocker!) and Carlos Beltran still can’t play in the field. The Yankees have had been banged up, but so have the Blue Jays with Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind all on the DL.

On Thursday against the Red Sox, Dioner Navarro (.266/.308/.380) hit fourth for the Blue Jays, Dan Johnson hit fifth (.227/.367/.318), Munenori Kawasaki hit sixth (.272/.325/.316), Juan Francisco hit seventh (.242/.315/.407), Ryan Goins hit eighth (.181/.224/.278) and Anthony Gose hit ninth (.237/.338/.282). That looks like a lot of the lineups Joe Girardi has been forced to put together this year because of injuries, but somehow, the Blue Jays not only won, they scored seven runs with that lineup. (The Yankees wouldn’t have scored since they usually score two runs with their full lineup.)

How have the Blue Jays managed to stay afloat with the injuries to their lineup and managed to score runs with some of the names they are putting out there?

Dakers: Well, really they haven’t been staying afloat. On June 6, we were 38-24, sitting in first play, 6 games up on the pack. Since then we’ve put up a 16-25 record, dropping to 3 games back, but then everyone in the batting order has either been on the DL or just been banged up enough that they couldn’t hit, but things are getting better. It has been very tough scoring runs.

Back in May, with everyone healthy we were scoring 5.5 runs a game. This month it is 3.9 runs per game. You wouldn’t expect much better with Encarnacion, Lind, Lawrie, Jose Bautista and Colby Rasmus all missing time with various injuries. Even the players they picked up to fill in have been getting hurt. Cole Gillespie was picked off waivers, play one game and then went on the DL. Nolan Reimold got into 4 games, after we claimed him, before he ended up on the DL. It hasn’t helped that the few that haven’t been hurt have been slumping.

Thankfully, it looks like the offense is turning around and next week should see the return of most Encarnacion, Lind, Reimold and Lawrie. Their return should give the team a lift.

Keefe: The Blue Jays are considered to be long shots to land David Price, but as long as there is chance that’s something I would have to think you are at least remotely excited about. It doesn’t seem like the Yankees have enough in their farm system to trade for Price, but it is odd to see the Rays willing to at least consider moving him within the division.

No matter which team Price ends up with (if he does end up getting traded), he will instantly bolster that rotation and make that team either primed for a playoff run or have them set up nicely for the division series if they’re already playoff bound.

How badly do you want Price, if at all, and what you be willing to give up for him

Dakers: Honestly, of course, I like him, but I wouldn’t want to give up what it would take to get him. Our minor league system isn’t as deep in prospects as it was a couple of years ago. Any deal for Price would have to include Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and/or Dalton Pompey our Top 3 prospects.

Stroman has been part of our rotation for the last month or so and he’s been nothing less than brilliant. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Red Sox in his start yesterday. I really wouldn’t want to lose him. Aaron Sanchez came up this week to help out in the bullpen, he pitched two clean innings in his first appearance. I would like us to keep both of them. Dalton Pompey is a center fielder, with speed, defense, knows how to get on base and has found some power this season in Double-A. And he would be a hometown boy, he was born just a few miles from Toronto. Many think the team considers him untouchable in trades.

Without at least two of those three we don’t get Price and I hope the team isn’t willing to pay that much.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jul 18, 2014

Yankees Need to Go on a Reds’ Run

The Reds’ season was spiraling out of control just three weeks, but now they are back in playoff contention. The Yankees need a similar run to save their own season.

Three weeks ago the Reds’ season was falling apart fast. They were 35-37 and 8.5 games back in the NL Central. But today as post-All-Star break baseball begins, the Reds are 1.5 games back in their division and 1 game back in the wild card. What am I getting at? Well, the Yankees are in a similar position to the one the Reds were in on June 20 and they will need a run of their own this summer if they don’t want to miss out on the postseason for the second straight year.

With the Reds in the Bronx to begin the “second half” and a 10-game homestand for the Yankees, Brandon Kraeling of Red Reporter joined me to talk about Todd Frazer’s emergence as an All-Star, what it’s like to watch and root for Aroldis Chapman and how Alfredo Simon has gone from AL East mop-up man to NL Central starting pitcher and somehow an All-Star.

Keefe: I remember the summer after sixth grade watching Toms River, N.J. run the table in the Little League World Series and pulling for them in the United States tournament because they were somewhat local as a Tri-state area team. Todd Frazier was the leader on that team and it’s still weird to see him now playing third base for the Reds.

As a former first-round pick, I wasn’t sure if Frazier would ever become a star in the league after hitting .249/.318/.446 in his first two-plus seasons and 318 games with the Reds. But this year, at age 28, Frazier put it together and has turned into a star and an All-Star and an underdog Home Run Derby runner-up. In 94 games this season, Frazier has already matched his career high in home runs (19), which he reached in both 2012 and 2013 and is hitting .290/.353/.500, well above his career average in all three categories

The picture of a 12-year-old Frazier standing with a 24-year-old Derek Jeter in 1998 became a storyline of this year’s All-Star Game with Frazier making the All-Star Game for the first time and Jeter playing in the Midsummer Classic for the last time and like Frazier playing for that Toms River team and now playing against the Yankees and Jeter, that picture is something I will never get used to.

Did you ever think Frazier would become the player he has turned into this season?

Kraeling: That old picture of Frazier and Jeter paired with the All-Star game this year is one of those things that makes baseball great.

I think the player we’ve seen Frazier become was always what we talked about as a best-case scenario for him. As we followed his ascent through the Reds minor league system, we’ve always kind of hoped he could become more of a super utility guy; a guy who can play a number of positions, hold his own in the middle of the lineup, and provide a little pop.

I can’t say we ever expected him to be among the top home run hitters in the NL midway through this season, especially after the “sophomore slump” he went through last year. That’s a huge credit to him, with the amount of injuries that the Reds have had, that Frazier has been able to step up and shoulder some of the offensive responsibility there. He’s carrying this lineup right now.

Keefe: Last Thursday before the All-Star break, the Reds got into it with the Cubs and the benches cleared as Aroldis Chapman and Anthony Rizzo were the focal points of the incident. I didn’t watch the game because I was busy watching Joe Girardi manage the Yankees’ bullpen to a loss with a three-run lead and nine outs to get. (They lost 9-3.) What exactly happened with the Reds and Cubs? Who was at fault?

Kraeling: I think that incident ended up being a little overblown. It isn’t uncommon for opposing players to take exception to Chapman’s wildness and claim that it’s intentional, and the Rizzo situation was one we’ve seen a couple of times already since Chapman’s been up. Chapman barely knows where the ball is going half the time, and it happened in a tie game so there’s no doubt in my mind he wasn’t trying to hit anybody.

Then again, I’m sure it depends on what side you’re on. The Cubs announcers were claiming that Chapman was looking for blood, and I never got one bit of that listening to the Reds broadcast.

That being said, Rizzo was out of line with how he reacted. He was going back and forth with the Reds all inning after his at bat, and angrily walked toward the Reds’ dugout after the inning was over, almost making it all the way to the rail before other players intervened. I’m surprised he didn’t get thrown out, and it’ll certainly provide another storyline the next time these teams play.

Keefe: Speaking of Chapman, here in New York we have Dellin Betances embarrassing nearly every hitter that steps in the box with 84 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings (206 batters faced) and a ridiculous 13.7 K/9. But what’s even more ridiculous is Chapman is striking out hitters more often than not with 60 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings with 111 batters faced. The only time I really watch Chapman is when the Reds are playing a national TV game, I’m bored and watching random games on MLB TV or I have thrown the Reds into a parlay and watch them because I have money on the line, but when I see numbers like that, I feel like I need to start watching Reds games when there’s a save opportunity on the line.

How fun is it to watch Chapman and to have him on your team?

Kraeling: It’s an absolute blast. We’ve had plenty of ups and downs with Chapman, but he’s one of those players where you drop whatever you’re doing whenever he comes into a ballgame (it reminds me of Mo Rivera on that front). One of the things I enjoy most as a Reds fan is getting to watch the reactions of opposing fans (and players, honestly) when he’s hitting 102 on the gun without much effort. Being at the stadium, he brings so much energy when he comes in, if only because we can see his superhuman arm in the flesh.

On the other hand, when he’s not on his game, he’s just as bad as he is dominant. Sometimes it seems like he can lose focus mentally in an instant, and it can really be a roller coaster ride when we see him in a game. Walking the bases loaded and then striking out the side isn’t out of the question for Chapman. It makes things exciting, that’s for sure.

Keefe: The Yankees need to not only start winning series, but they need to start sweeping series and winning games in bunches starting right away in the “second half.” The problem with that (along with the fact that 80 percent of their Opening Day rotation is on the disabled list) is that they will be facing a red-hot Reds team this weekend at the Stadium and Johnny Cueto is starting on Sunday. Cueto is 10-6 with a 2.13 and leads the league in complete games (3), innings pitched (143.2) and hits/9 (5.8). Not exactly what I want a Yankees team that has trouble scoring against No. 4 and 5 starters to be seeing three games into the stretch run while chasing five games in the East.

But also pitching this weekend against the Yankees is Alfredo Simon, who I miss dearly from his time in Baltimore because whenever he came into the game it meant a Yankees rally or comeback. It blew my mind that Simon was an All-Star this year, going 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA so far after being a reliever for nearly his entire career.

Are you surprised that Simon has not only become a reliable starter, but that he’s doing it at age 33?

Kraeling: Absolutely. I think the job that Simon is doing is one of the most surprising performances in all of MLB this year. You have a guy who Baltimore gave up on and the Reds got off of waivers, who was a productive member of the Reds’ bullpen the past few years but was never really spectacular. He prepared this spring as a starter with Mat Latos hurt, but wasn’t necessarily in the Reds’ plans for the rotation to start the year.

Oddly enough, if former Yankee Brett Marshall hadn’t hurt himself in his last start of spring training, he would have been the 5th starter for the Reds over Alfredo Simon. Funny to think about.

We’re fully aware that midnight is coming and that Simon could turn into a pumpkin any minute now, but we’re enjoying the ride right now.

Keefe: On June 20, the Reds were 35-37 and 8.5 games back in the NL Central and playing themselves out of playoff contention with the real halfway point of the season approaching. Since then they have gone 16-7 and are not only 1 game out of a wild-card spot, but they are now just 1.5 games out in the division. Over the last three weeks the Reds have essentially saved their season and it’s something the Yankees will need to do in the “second half” if they are to get back to the postseason.

In the last four years, the Reds have reached the playoffs three times, losing in the one-game playoff last year and in the NLDS in 2012 and 2010 and going 2-7 in their nine playoff games. I’m guessing you had postseason aspirations for this Reds team before the season started and still do now that they have repositioned themselves nicely for the last two-plus months of baseball.

What exactly were your expectations for the Reds entering the season and have they changed? Were you losing hope before they recently turned it around?

Kraeling: It’s been a really weird season for the Reds. I think we had similar expectations before the season as we have in the past few seasons, in that the Reds should compete for the division title. However, I think there was a little bit more pessimism with the Pirates, Cardinals, and Brewers making moves to improve in the offseason and Walt Jocketty standing pat with his Reds roster. The biggest offseason acquisitions for the Reds were Brayan Peña and Skip Schumaker. Seriously.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jul 3, 2014

The Yankees’ Trash Has Turned into the Twins’ Treasure

The Yankees need to start winning and they need to start now. There’s no better place for that than a four-game series in Minnesota against the Twins.

The Yankees followed a four-game winning streak with a four-game losing streak. Then after back-to-back wins they have now lost five straight. What does that mean? Other than that they have been a bad team for a while now, I have no idea. But I hope it means that they are about to go on a 12-game winning streak.

With the Yankees and Twins meeting in Minnesota for a four-game series, Jesse Lund of Twinkie Town joined me to talk about Phil Hughes’ first half-season with the Twins, Eduardo Nunez’s surprising production and how two failed Twins starters have become reliable relievers.

Keefe: The last time we talked was on May 30 for the last Yankees-Twins series. A lot has happened in those five weeks. Mainly, the Yankees have gone in the tank. Before that series, the Yankees were 28-24 and since then they have gone 13-18. I thought after finishing their nine-game road trip with four wins in five games that they would use a home series against the Twins to start a summer run, but that didn’t happen. The Twins didn’t use their series win over the Yankees in the Bronx to start a run of their own either, going 14-18 since since then.

What has gone wrong for the Twins since the last time they played the Yankees?

Lund: I don’t know if as much has gone wrong as much as it’s just the Twins playing to their true talent level. Some guys could be doing better (Nolasco, Arcia) and some guys have cooled off (Dozier, Escobar, Suzuki), but it’s really just an issue with inconsistency. And that’s to be expected when you have a roster of middle-of-the-road talent … and that tag is probably being a little generous.

This team has some pretty good role players, but with Mauer out and one of their new hot hands (Danny Santana) also on the disabled list, the lineup has been patchwork and being competitive is mostly down to the starting pitcher having a good night.

Keefe: My worst nightmare came true on June 1 at Yankee Stadium and I was in the Stadium to watch it unfold: Phil Hughes beat the Yankees. Not only did he beat the Yankees, but he was in line for a loss after giving up two earned runs over eight innings before David Robertson had a meltdown and the Yankees gave up six runs in the ninth for a 7-2 loss.

Since that start, Hughes has slowly started to return to being the Phil Hughes that pitched for the Yankees in 2013, allowing five earned runs in three of his five starts. The biggest difference about 2014 Phil Hughes is that he isn’t walking anyone. He has walked just 10 in 103 innings this season after walking 42 in 145 2/3 innings last season. (As you can tell and as I told you last time, I’m rooting heavily against Hughes after how he pitched his way out of the Bronx after being sold to Yankees fans for about a decade.)

Are you waiting for pre-2013 Phil Hughes to show up in Minnesota or do you think 2014 Phil Hughes is here to stay?

Lund: I don’t think he’s as good as he was the first two months of the season, but I still think he’ll be better for Minnesota than he was for the Yankees. He’s established a nice rapport with Kurt Suzuki, who has a better acumen for game-calling than I expected, but Hughes has also been pitching with a good deal of confidence. To live and die up in the zone, I guess you need to have a good deal of faith in your abilities. I see Hughes stabilizing as a solid No. 3, which will make him well worth his contract and, until Alex Meyer arrives, also probably makes him the best pitcher on staff.

Keefe: In the ninth inning of that nightmare June 1 loss, Eduardo Nunez doubled in the ninth in his only at-bat of the game. If I’m rooting heavily against Phil Hughes this season then I’m rooting incredibly against Eduardo Nunez after his Yankees tenure and his projected future costing the Yankees Cliff Lee in 2010, as I told you during the last email exchange.

Nunez is hitting .305/.337/.463 for the Twins this year with three home runs in 87 plate appearances after hitting .260/.307/.372 with three home runs for the Yankees in 336 plate appearances last year. As for Yangervis Solate, Nunez’s replacement on the Yankees, well after carrying the Yankees through the first two months of the season, he was sent down to Triple-A on Thursday prior to the start of this series.

What are your thoughts on the man the Yankees referred to as Nuney?

Lund: I think he’s one of those fine role players I mentioned earlier. The Twins organization’s inability to plan for issues in center field has led to a lot of infielders playing in the outfield somewhere, and that’s opened up a few opportunities for Nunez. As long as we don’t need him to step in for anything more than a couple of games at a time, he’s a perfectly suitable bench option, provided he keeps producing. You’ve seen firsthand how quickly he can lose his ability to produce, and I sincerely doubt that he’s suddenly tapped into his missing potential now. It’s not easy to be one of those guys – a guy who only gets playing time when he produces but can’t get playing time when he doesn’t produce and so how to you earn the playing time to produce when you’re not producing, but for now he looks like a nice get. I just wish he’d be willing to take a walk.

Keefe: I remember in 2009 when Glen Perkins was a starter and Brian Duensing was a starter, starting Game 1 of the 2009 ALDS. That was five years ago and now the two are no longer starters and haven’t been for a couple of years now. However, Perkins has turned into a reliable closer for the Twins and Duensing a reliable middle reliever.

Are you disappointed with how the potential starting careers of the two turned out, or are you happy that they turned out to be viable options in the bullpen?

Lund: It’s different for each guy. For Duensing, he was durable enough to start but he didn’t have the stuff and right handed hitters ate him for breakfast. So he’s turned into a pretty reliable middle innings reliever, even if Gardy doesn’t utilize platoon advantages as much as he could to get the most out of the lefty.

For Perkins, he seemed destined to be a wash out. His fastball sat right around 90, the curveball was too big and too slow, and he was just hit hard. Constantly. No doubt you’ve experienced this before as a fan — a guy with decent potential can’t make the adjustment to big league ball, his performance suffers, maybe says the wrong things to the wrong people in the organization and he’s in the dog house and you can already hear signatures going onto his walking papers.

But then he told the organization there wasn’t anywhere else he wanted to be, the team gave him an opportunity out of the bullpen, he started throwing 97, developed a slider and gave up on the curve, moved up the bullpen hierarchy and now he’s one of the best relievers in the American League. So while for Duensing it was a situation of low expectations and just being glad the guy found a place to be effective, with Perkins it was the case of a first round draft pick nearly going bust before being reinvented. There’s no disappointment there, just surprise.

Keefe: When we last talked, you said you thought the Twins would win 70 games before the season started and on May 30 you still believed that to be true. At 38-45, the Twins are 10 games out in the Central and would need to go 32-47 the rest of the way to meet your prediction, which won’t exactly be hard for them to do. After another month of baseball and half the season left, are your feelings on these Twins still the same and how your opinion on their future changed at all?

Lund: I think I’m willing to up my projection to 75 games. Now that’s without taking into account the fact that the Twins should be selling off spare parts at the trade deadline, which would change things again. But at the halfway mark they are on pace to win 76 games – a ten-game improvement over 2013 – and that’s a big step in the right direction. It’s been a rough two or three weeks here, but it’s definitely been a lot of fun watching the team be more competitive this year.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 30, 2014

David Price to Make Last Pitch to Yankees

If I get my wish, the next time David Price pitches in Yankee Stadium after this week will be as a member of the Yankees.

The Yankees desperately need to start putting wins together consistently and after winning eight of 10, they have now lost six of eight and the only thing that has been consistent about the 2014 Yankees is that they are inconsistent. I would like to think that could change this week at the Stadium against the Rays, but the Rays, despite having the worst record in the majors are 4-3 against the Yankees this season.

With the Yankees and Rays playing the final series in the Bronx before the All-Star break, Daniel Russell of DRaysBay joined me to talk about what’s gone for the Rays this season, what will happen with David Price and if the Rays could make a managerial change after this season.

Keefe: The last time we talked was on May 2. Back then, the Rays were 13-16 and part of the mix in an AL East that no one wanted to run away with after a month of baseball. But since then, the Rays have gone 22-33 and have buried themselves in the division, 10 games out after three months of baseball.

It’s been a while since the Rays found themselves in this sort of position at this point in the season. Here are their records after 84 games since 2008 when they first made the playoffs.

2013: 45-39
2012: 44-40
2011: 47-37
2010: 51-33
2009: 45-39
2008: 52-32

There is still half a season left to play and given the Rays’ recent history of going on remarkable runs, it’s hard to truly count them out yet, especially since neither the Yankees, Blue Jays or Orioles really want to take over the East and put a firm grip on it this summer.

Have you given up on the 2014 Rays or are you holding out hope that the remaining 78 games can be something special?

Russell: Play this season all over again, and I’d still think this team could win it all.

Not much unlike the lost 2009 season, the quality of the athletes assembled by Andrew Friedman this season was the best the Rays had ever fielded. This is not a horrible team by any stretch of the imagination, and Baseball Prospectus continues to project the Rays to the best performance through the remaining half season. But that’s all on paper. Everything should have gone right, but it all went wrong.

Part of the blame is on the starting rotation’s injuries, part of the blame is on sleepy bats, part of the blame is on uncharacteristic defensive miscues.

That said, I don’t foresee the Rays coming back from a 35-49 record. It’s just been a horrible year for what I would still consider a top-tier talent in baseball. Last place hurts, and this team is dejected. They’re still a formidable team to play (just ask the Orioles), but unless we start sweeping every division series, this team is bottom dwelling the rest of the season.

Keefe: The more the Rays lose, the more David Price’s inevitable departure from Tampa Bay becomes more and more imminent. I wish the Rays would find some worthy package from the Yankees and trade the left-handed ace within the division, but I recognize that is a pipe dream and Price will end up somewhere other than the Bronx when he is finally moved. My one fear is that he will be traded to the Dodgers where they will be sure to lock him up long-term and he will never hit free agency.

What is the mood with Rays fans knowing that at this point any David Price start could be his last with the organization? Where do you think he will end up?

Russell: David Price’s departure might as well be written in stone. The Rays were over budget heading into the season, and if Price were headed out the door either way, they might as well send him off now.

I would venture to say Price hasn’t been traded thus far because the expected return has been too far above the market, and I don’t think the front office is lowering their demands. It’s for that reason an inter-division trade isn’t happening. How much would the Yankees need to outbid the Rays’ expectations for them to send their ace to a rival?

The Rays have no interest in facing Price on a regular basis for years to come if it can be helped. Even if they were willing, though, who do the Yankees have to offer? James Shields brought back Wil Myers — and while that trade was robust, in a drastically different environment, it’s still the plumb line.

The mood for fans at this point is “what’s taking so long?” more than anything else. The Rays even granted Price’s request to play in Sunday Columbia blue jerseys on his Wednesday matinee last week. If that’s not a signal he’s going out the door…

Keefe: When I looked at the pitching matchups for this series and saw Chris Archer, David Price and Jake Odorizzi, I laughed to myself and thought, “Of course it’s those three.” Archer is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees, David Price is David Price and the Yankees as a team are 5-for-24 (.208) against Odorizzi and have basically never seen him and I know all too well how the Yankees do against pitchers with which they have no history.

I think the fact that I feel most confident about the Yankees’ chance in the middle game of this series against the 2012 Cy Young winner and current AL strikeout leader shows how deep the Rays’ pitching is, even in a year when Erik Bedard is in the rotation and Matt Moore is out for the season and Alex Cobb has missed significant time.

This must make you feel confident knowing everything will be fine pitching-wise even once Price has been traded?

Russell: Absolutely. The Rays are built on pitching; they live and die by the rotation. There’s some quality names en route to the majors in Enny Romero, Nathan Karns, and a few projects like grondballer Matt Andriese, scary but injured Alex Colome, and former bluechip prospect Mike Montgomery, not to mention a rehabbing Jeremy Hellickson. Trading Price will hurt, no doubt about it, but the Rays will survive as other roll players step up to the next level.

Keefe: If the Rays are willing to trade Price and accept that 2014 isn’t going to happen for them, I would think they would be willing to move some other players in order to retool and rebuild for 2015 and beyond when the injury bug isn’t decimating the entire team. Ben Zobrist’s name has been mentioned as a potential trade piece between now and July 31, but is there anyone else that could be leaving Tampa Bay in July?

Russell: I’d say it’s open season on anyone not under contract for an extended period of time. In fact, it’s easier to point out who is not being traded. The outfield is locked up in Desmond Jennings, Wil Myers, and Kevin Kiermaier. The infield locks are likely Evan Longoria and Yunel Escobar. Ryan Hanigan will remain at catcher, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, and Chris Archer remain in the rotation. Literally everyone else I would put on the block, but given the lofty expectations of the front office, who knows who could go out the door?

Veteran role players are probably the ones worth watching. Erik Bedard, David DeJesus, James Loney, and Jose Molina’s glove are all under-discussed as trade targets. Matt Joyce, Grant Balfour, and Ben Zobrist rightfully so. It’s not a fire sale, but the Rays could be persuaded with a large enough offer.

Keefe: I have heard people bring up the idea that the Rays could move on from Joe Maddon and look for a managerial change. Not that Maddon has done a bad job (he hasn’t), but because it’s just time a for a change, which happens in baseball. I don’t agree with the idea to make a change for the sake of a change because a manager’s ways become stale within an organization, but then again, I have never played or managed in the majors, so maybe it can be needed.

If the Rays were going to make a change and let Maddon go after this season as a way of shaking things up if this disastrous season continues, then they would be doing exactly that and making a change just to make a change, discounting what Maddon has done in his tenure there. And if Maddon were let go, the over/under on when he would have another managerial job would be 17 minutes.

Is it time for the Rays to think about a new manager or is that the craziest thing you have heard this year?

Russell: I have heard a lot of crazy theories about what the Rays could do to fix the mess, but changing managers is brand new to my ears. I can’t imagine it in any scenario. The Rays know the incredible asset they have in Maddon, and he’s incredibly happy with the club. The same could be said for pitching coach Jim Hickey.

There might be a case to switch up the hitting coach some time in the next six month, but how much is he to blame for this year’s 100 wRC+, compared to last year’s 108 wRC+? Coaching changes are not so clear cut as a Bobby Valentine disaster. The Rays have no reason to dictate a change in management. It’s just crazy talk!