I was sitting in the Rogers Centre in Toronto on Opening Day 2018 when Giancarlo Stanton launched an opposite-field home run in his first Yankees at-bat. Later in the game, I watched Stanton hit a second home run, a majestic shot to straightaway center that seemed like it might carry forever. The Yankees had come within one win of the 2017 World Series and had traded for the 2017 National League MVP and he looked like he would continue building on his 59-home run season from the year before. I couldn’t help but spend the entire first two days of the 2018 season in Toronto thinking the Yankees were going to get back to the World Series.

It didn’t work out that way and still hasn’t. The Yankees were humiliated in the 2018 ALDS, lost four of the last five games in the 2019 ALCS and then were embarrassed as an organization in the 2020 ALDS. The team that came within one win of the 2017 World Series hasn’t gotten back to that point. They haven’t gotten timely hitting or consistent starting pitching in the postseason the last three years, but they also haven’t been in the best possible position to win in October by achieving home-field advantage. That’s partially Aaron Boone’s fault, but it’s mainly been due to injuries.

After setting the all-time single-season-record for players placed on the injured list in 2019, the Yankees rebuilt their medical and training staff and hired Eric Cressy as their director of player health and performance. (Cressy also works with non-Yankees and had been working with recently-signed Yankee Corey Kluber, which is part of the reason the Yankees committed $11 million to the former Cy Young winner despite having thrown only 36 2/3 innings over the last two seasons.)

Cressy went on YES on Thursday and discussed keeping the Yankees healthy in 2021, especially their two middle-of-the-order bats in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who have spent most of the last two seasons on the injured list.

“In both cases, they’ve lifted less than they have in the past,” Cressy said of Judge and Stanton this offseason. “Aaron, in particular, has really taken a heavy interest in a lot of yoga. We have to be mindful of the stresses on guys who are 6-foot-7, 6-foot-8, big dudes who are standing around for long periods of time in cleats. Those are things that normal people don’t encounter.”

Cressy’s comments implying Judge and Stanton can’t stay healthy because they “stand around for long periods of time in cleats” is quite the stretch. Judge’s three most significant injuries (not including the freak hit-by-pitch fractured wrist) in his five years with the Yankees have been two oblique injuries (2016 and 2019) and the fractured rib/collapsed lung (suffered in 2019, but affected 2020). None of the three had anything to do with standing around in cleats.

Stanton, played 158 games in 2018 and played in 73 of those games as an outfielder. In 2019, he played in only 18 games and missed two-and-a-half months after the third game of the season and then another two months after returning in late June, so it’s hard to pin any of his long list of injuries from 2019 on “standing around.” In 2020, Stanton played in only 23 games and was the designated hitter in all 23 games. There was no “standing around” for him except for standing on the bases, which has become difficult for the Stanton.

“Anytime you see an athlete who has some chronic stuff, there is a perception that they’re not working hard,” Cressy said. “It couldn’t be further from the truth. Those guys are rock stars in every aspect of their preparation, from how they come into the training room to the work they put in in the weight room.”

I don’t think anyone thinks Judge and Stanton aren’t working hard. They’re just injury-prone players. Cressy said so himself by saying that they are “rock stars in every aspect of their preparation.” If they are preparing exactly how they should and still suffering injuries, which keep them out for extended periods of time, then they’re injury-prone.

It was mysterious when Judge’s fractured rib/collapsed lung was misdiagnosed as a shoulder issue in February 2020 and when he suffered a calf injury in 2020 on Aug. 11, came back on Aug. 26, and re-injured it in his first game back. (Boone also blatantly lied about the calf injury and the team greatly mishandled it.) But in neither of those instances or any injury Judge has sustained as a Yankee has there ever been any doubt he wasn’t working hard. He just happens to get hurt. He happens to get hurt a lot.

It’s not that Stanton isn’t working hard either, it’s just that his injuries haven’t been as easy to understand. In 2019, he endured a biceps strain in the third game of the season and went on the IL. While he was on the IL, the biceps strain turned into a shoulder strain, and while still on the IL, the biceps strain and shoulder strain also became a calf strain. He went on the IL after the third game of the season, came off it in late June, played in six games and went back on the IL until mid-September. He played in 18 regular-season games, returned for the playoffs and benched himself for health reasons in the ALCS.

In late February 2020, Stanton was shut down with another calf injury in spring training. He was healthy by the time the season started in late July, but in the second week of August, he was back home on the IL with a hamstring injury, which kept him out for more than half of the shortened season. Stanton’s injuries are always related to a muscle strain or pull. He takes an exorbitant amount of time to recover from his injuries and they mostly happen doing something which shouldn’t be an issue for baseball players: running the bases.

“Prior to Game 5 [of the ALDS], he was out doing some sprint work and it was as athletic as I had ever seen him,” Cressy said. “I was confident that he could have gone out to play the outfield for us that night. It was super encouraging.”

In the postseason, Stanton was the player I thought the Yankees were trading for prior to the 2018 season, as he hit .308/.387/1.038 with six home runs in 71 plate appearances in the Yankees’ seven playoff games. So it’s no surprise he looked the best he had ever looked health-wise to Cressy since he was playing better than he had at any point in his three seasons with the Yankees.

Cressy makes it sound like it would take a miracle for Stanton to play the outfield once again and it would have been a miracle had he played the outfield in the postseason. Brian Cashman made it clear in his end-of-the-season press conference that Stanton is no longer an outfield option for the Yankees. Stanton is a 31-year-old who is owed $208 million over the next seven seasons and then another $10 million as a buyout in 2028 (yes, the Marlins are paying a portion of his contract, so it’s not all on the Yankees), and he’s a full-time DH.

Cashman worked tirelessly for years to free up the DH role to use as a way to give players a “half day” of rest and not have spot tied up in a one-dimensional player. After moving on from a 41-year-old Alex Rodriguez during the 2016 season, he gave the spot to a 37-year-old Matt Holliday for 2017. Stanton played more than half of his games as the DH in 2018 and then the spot was somewhat freed up in 2019 and 2020 because of Stanton’s injuries, but as long as Stanton is healthy, he will be the DH. The only way to give players non named Stanton somewhat of a day off for the next seven years is to give them the entire day off.

“2020 was a little bit of a dumpster fire in terms of Major League Baseball injuries,” Cressy said. “What baseball really learned last year above all else is you can’t do spring training in three weeks. There’s a very skill-specific sport aspect of preparation that takes time for that adaptation to kick in.”

The entire league might have been a dumpster fire for injuries last year, but the Yankees have been a dumpster fire for injuries the last two years. The Yankees can’t afford to have 2021 go the same way. They can’t afford to keep losing Judge and Stanton.

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Hal Steinbrenner clearly set a mandate for his front office to keep the Yankees under the $210 luxury-tax threshold for 2021. It’s why the Yankees are going to pay Adam Ottavino to pitch for the Red Sox, it’s why Masahiro Tanaka is back in Japan and Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon are now Yankees.

Brian Cashman was tasked with building a starting rotation without exceeding the imaginary salary cap, and he has done just that. But in order for his new-look rotation to work out, the members of it are going to have stay healthy. It’s a tall order for a team that had the injury issues the Yankees did in 2020 after setting the all-time single-season record for players placed on the injured list in 2019.

Cashman recently gave a few interviews on the state of the Yankees, and shared his opinion on the rotation he has built.

On the health of Kluber and Taillon.
“‘Hopeful’ is certainly an appropriate word. We made the commitment because we believe, despite the risk, it was a position worth taking. Now we’re going to test drive that, for better or for worse. By placing a bet, we’re going to count on the better than the worse, but I can’t dismiss there is risk. I believe and hope they’ll have a positive impact.

That’s not exactly the most reassuring answer Cashman has ever provided. In that one quote he used “hopeful” and “despite the risk” and “for better or for worse” and the word “risk” again and the word “hope” again.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Yankees’ recent single-season slogans to help boost ticket sales like “Pride. Power. Pinstripes.” and “Our History. Your Tradition.” and “A Timeless Legacy” from in-game commercials on YES. I thought “Complacency” or “Luxury-Tax Threshold” could be fitting for 2021, but Cashman has given some new possibilities here:

Hopeful
Despite the Risk
For Better or for Worse
There Is Risk
Placing a Bet

You would think the team that makes more money than any other team in the league and a team desperate for their first World Series appearance in 12 years and a team in a supposed championship window of opportunity would be in a better position than essentially rolling the dice on their starting rotation. The Yankees aren’t gambling on their fifth starter or a single spot in their everyday lineup or a middle reliever. They’re gambling on nearly their entire starting rotation.

On if he feels more secure with Kluber and Taillon in the rotation.
“Ultimately, the deeper the roster choices in the pitching category, the better you’ll be served, in theory.”

It wouldn’t be a Cashman interview without the use of “ultimately” involved. The key phrase here is “in theory” since the entire rotation is built on the theory that it will remain healthy. Kluber is coming back from a shoulder injury and has thrown 36 2/3 innings since the start of 2019. Taillon is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery and has thrown 37 1/3 innings since the start of 2019. Montgomery has thrown 52 innings since the start of 2019 after underdoing Tommy John surgery. Luis Severino is due back midseason from Tommy John surgery (which was preceded by a lat issue, which was preceded by a shoulder issue) and he has thrown 20 1/3 innings since the start of 2019.

On paper and when healthy, which is the theory Cashman is talking about, the Yankees have an excellent rotation, and most likely the best rotation in the American League. A year ago at this time, they were in a similar position with Gerrit Cole, Severino, James Paxton, Tanaka and J.A. Happ with Montgomery as insurance and that didn’t work out so well.

On the starting pitching depth.
“If Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon can contribute like we hope they can then it pushes the youngsters like a Clarke Schmidt, a Deivi Garcia, a Nick Nelson, Michael King, all these different guys, it pushes them back down the ladder a little bit.”

Listen, I’m all for anything that pushes Nelson and King down the ladder. I want them so far from the bottom of the ladder that they’re on the ground looking up at the bottom rung of an unreachable old Manhattan building fire escape ladder.

I’m also OK with anything that pushes Schmidt and Garcia into insurance roles. I believe in them both and want them to eventually get their opportunity to be full-time members of the rotation, but I also remember what happened when Cashman gave Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy guaranteed rotation spots going into 2008: the Yankees missed the postseason for the first time since 1993.

There’s a good chance Schmidt and Garcia are in the rotation to begin the season anyway. The odds aren’t high that the Yankees’ “in theory” rotation is the rotation by the time Opening Day rolls around. There’s a lot of bullpens to be thrown, a lot of pitcher’s fielding practices to be conducted and a lot of spring training games to be pitched. In other words, there’s a lot of days and opportunities between now and Opening Day for the Yankees’ oft-injured starters to get injured.

After not having enough starting pitching to navigate the 2019 and 2020 seasons, the Yankees have even less stable starting pitching entering 2021. I’m not as “hopeful” as Cashman it will work out, but there’s no other choice than to be.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

When the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time since 1993, they signed CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, spent $423.5 million, won 103 regular-season games and won the 2009 World Series.

So when the Yankees missed the playoffs again five years later after watching Lyle Overbay and Vernon Wells fill out the heart of their order for the majority of the season and the Red Sox win the World Series, they decided to do what they had done the last time to resolve the issue. Instead of worrying about the $189 million goal, the Yankees signed Brian McCann ($85 million) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($153 million) and after losing Robinson Cano to the Mariners, they signed Carlos Beltran ($45 million). Then they went out and signed Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year, $155 million contract despite him having never thrown a pitch in the majors.

The Yankees’ strategy of getting back into contention by monopolizing the free-agent market didn’t work the second time around. After being a .277/.350/.473 hitter for the Braves over eight-plus seasons, McCann became a .235/.313/.418 on the other side of 30 for the Yankees. The Yankees eventually paid him to play the last two years of his contract for the Astros (and help beat them with a huge double in the ALCS). Ellsbury turned out to be the worst contract in the history of the team and possibly the sport. Of a possible 1,134 regular-season games, he appeared in 520 (46 percent) over seven years. He was benched for the wild-card game in 2015 and lost his starting spot by the time the 2017 playoff run came. He never played another game for the Yankees after 2017. Beltran’s first season with the Yankees was what you would expect from a 37-year-old right fielder in his 15th season: a disaster, posting a .703 OPS. The next year he was better (.808 OPS) and then at age 39 in 2016, he was his old self (.890 OPS). The Yankees traded him to the Rangers at the 2016 deadline and the following year at 40, he celebrated an elusive championship with McCann as an Astro.

Tanaka was the only one of the bunch to live up to his contract (and then some). He was the only one to either play out his entire contract with the Yankees (McCann and Beltran) or play it out period (the Yankees released Ellsbury).

Tanaka was the perfect Yankee. Good, consistent, accountable and likable. He took each start as seriously as someone making somewhere around $700,000 per start should. He might have never had his best stuff, but he never took a start off, working to grind through the outings when he couldn’t locate his fastball or when he didn’t have a feel for his offspeed stuff. He expected to win every fifth day, and he expected perfection from himself in an imperfect game.

In his first year in the majors, Tanaka was arguably the best pitcher in the league before an elbow tear disrupted his season. The New York media with their medical degrees argued he should undergo Tommy John surgery and just get it over with as if it were the equivalent of having a cavity filled, while the world’s leading orthopedic surgeons and sports medicine doctors recommended rest and rehab. Tanaka listened to the doctors over the sloppy sportswriters and went on to return at the end of the season and pitch six more seasons for the Yankees with the elbow tear.

Post-elbow tear, Tanaka wasn’t the same pitcher. He was still really, good and reliable, he was just no longer in the same class as the game’s top names. The postseason was a different story. For as pedestrian as Tanaka might look at times over a full season worth of starts, October was where he was truly at his best.

In the 2015 wild-card game, Tanaka pitched well (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR) against a young Astros team on the verge of becoming a championship team. Tanaka was never going to win that game as he was set up to lose with the offense facing their kryptonite at the time in Dallas Keuchel. The game could still be going on and the Yankees still wouldn’t have scored.

He saved the Yankees’ season in 2017 in Game 3 of the ALDS. Facing elimination at home, Tanaka shut out the 102-win Indians for seven innings (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K). He followed that up by pitching good enough to win in Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS at the height of the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K). Five days later in Game 5, he shut out the Astros at Yankee Stadium the way he had the Indians a round earlier (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K).

A year later when the Yankees were embarrassed by the Red Sox in the 2018 ALDS, it wasn’t because of Tanaka. He won the only game the Yankees won in the series with a series-saving performance (at the time) in Game 2 in Boston: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR. He had swung home-field advantage in the series in the Yankees’ favor. It’s not his fault his teammates, and mainly Aaron Boone, ruined that advantage the next two games.

In the 2019 postseason, Tanaka was tasked with facing the Twins who had set the all-time record for home runs in a season (307) at homer-happy Yankee Stadium. He held the Twins homerless in his five stellar innings (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K). A week later in Game 1 of the 2019 ALCS, back in Houston for a rematch, Tanaka shut out the Astros, holding them to one hit over six innings (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). The Astros got to him in Game 4 (5 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR) as his historical postseason performance finally had its first blip.

This past October, Tanaka didn’t look himself. In Game 2 of the wild-card series against the Indians, he allowed three doubles and four earned runs in the first inning in the pouring in an inning that would eventually would be paused and delayed for hurricane-like conditions. The Yankees came back to win the Game 10-9 to prevent that from being Tanaka’s last start as a Yankee. Boone’s idiotic managing push Tanaka from getting the ball in Game 2 of the ALDS to Game 3, so Boone’s could unleash his genius J.A. Happ plan. Tanaka struggled again, putting the Yankees on the brink of elimination (4 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR).

I didn’t think that would be the last time Tanaka would pitch for the Yankees. Even though he was an impending free agent, there seemed to be mutual interest for both he and the Yankees to continue the relationship. The Yankees were also losing Happ and Paxton to free agency, Luis Severino wouldn’t be back until mid-2021 (at the earliest), and the Yankees’ lack of starting pitching made a Tanaka reunion appear inevitable. Yet somehow, it didn’t work out.

The Yankees chose to sign the once-dominant Corey Kluber but now a virtual unknown to a one-year deal, and they decided to trade for another unknown in Jameson Taillon. Those moves coupled with Hal Steinbrenner’s desperation to stay under the $210 million luxury-tax threshold meant the end for Tanaka.

Tanaka likely set a price for himself, and if the Yankees weren’t going to meet it, he would return home to Japan to pitch. It was either going to be th Yankees or Japan. He wasn’t going to pitch for another team in North America and he wasn’t going to pitch for less than his worth just to remain a Yankee. The allure of going home and living in Japan full time likely made it easier for him to accept the Yankees’ decision to move on.

The Yankees’ 2021 rotation is an enormous gamble with Gerrit Cole being the only reliable arm. When Severino returns (whenever that might be), he will be coming off Tommy John surgery, which was preceded by a lat issue, which was preceded by a shoulder issue. Kluber is coming back from a shoulder injury. Taillon is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery is 52 innings removed from Tommy John surgery. Since the start of the 2019 season, Severino has made five starts and has thrown 20 1/3 (and again, he won’t be available until midseason), Kluber has made eight starts and thrown 36 2/3 innings, Taillon has made seven starts and thrown 37 1/3 innings and Montgomery has made 12 starts and thrown 52 innings. After that, there’s Deivi Garcia and his six career starts (seven if you count whatever Game 2 of the ALDS was), and Clarke Schmidt and his one career start.

The Yankees strategy for 2021 is praying a lot of things go right for them. They’re hoping to hit on both Kluber and Taillon, hoping Severino comes back healthy from surgery and three injuries and is immediately his old self, not needing the seemingly mandatory time and innings to regain form after surgery. They’re hoping the team that set the all-time single-season record for players on the injured list in 2019 and the team that was equally as injured and unhealthy in 2020 is suddenly healthier despite being a year older.

The Yankees wouldn’t have to worry about Tanaka. Sure, any pitcher can get hurt on any pitch at any moment, but Tanaka had been a model of consistency for the Yankees. Even with his elbow injury in 2014 and missed time in 2015, he still made 44 starts in those two seasons and had made 31, 30, 27 and 31 starts from 2016 through 2019 respectively. This past season he made all 10 of his starts. Without his feel for his signature pitch, Tanaka’s ceiling might not be what Kluber or Taillon’s are when healthy, but who knows if they will be healthy. With Tanaka, the Yankees knew who would be getting the ball when his turn came up each time through the rotation, yet they chose two lottery tickets over a guaranteed paycheck.

Tanaka became a Yankee because the team missing the postseason in a season in which the Red Sox won the World Series was too much for Steinbrenner to keep his team’s payroll under the luxury-tax threshold. Apparently, 11 straight years without a World Series appearance, let alone a championship, and coming off an ALDS exit with one reliable starting pitcher in the rotation isn’t enough for Steinbrenner to change his mind again, and as a result, Tanaka is no longer a Yankee because of the luxury-tax threshold.

I’m going to miss Tanaka, and when the Yankees’ season actually begins (whenever that might be) I will miss him even more. If the Yankees’ rotation gamble doesn’t pay off, they’ll miss him as well.

Subscribe to the Keefe To The City Podcast. New episodes every Monday and Thursday during the offseason.

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!