Back in the win column. After the eight-day winning streak was broken on Friday, Saturday was a perfect 4-0 day.
Here are the bets for Sunday, May 1.
Yankees-Royals Under 8.5 (-120) The books continue to drop the unders. Saturday was another magical performance for unders (11-4) and it seems like the books have had enough. The 8.5s are on the brink of extinction, and even 8s are becoming endangered species. For instance, Max Scherzer and Zach Eflin on Sunday Night Baseball is a 6.5 That’s the kind of line you would have seen for Clayton Kershaw vs. Madison Bumgarner a decade ago. Now we’re getting it for a Hall of Famer against Eflin? In order to continue to find value with unders, the overs are going to have to start hitting. I just pray it’s not on games in which I have money on the under.
The Yankees scored 12 run against the Royals on Friday and three on Sunday. On Sunday, they will face a lefty in Daniel Lynch, so that means a right-handed heavy lineup for the Yankees with Anthony Rizzo likely being the only lefty in it (if Aaron Boone doesn’t inexplicably give him the day off). It’s the kind of matchup in which the Yankees could cover this number on their own. But the Yankees have won eight straight, and 10 of 11, and they are heading out of town for a crucial three-game series in Toronto beginning on Monday. I don’t want to say the Yankees will look past the Royals on Sunday and we’ll get a two-and-a-half-hour game with a lot of quick at-bats, but I have seen that type of performance from the Yankees in similar circumstances in the past.
Luis Severino has been very good this season, while the Royals’ offense is last in runs scored in all of baseball. Rizzo has two fewer home runs than the entire Royals team. This is the only under I trust on Sunday.
Angels -110 over White Sox Dallas Keuchel is starting against the Angels. If this were five, six or seven years ago, that would have meant something and it would have meant: don’t bet on the Angels. But 2022 Keuchel is bordering on being the left-handed version of 2017 Jered Weaver who was an automatic wager against every time he took the mound. Couple Keuchel with the White Sox’ horrible offense and this line is too good not to take even if I don’t believe in the Angels and their hot start.
Yankees -195 over Royals Cardinals -200 over Diamondbacks Dodgers -275 over Tigers (+209) The Yankees are too hot to not bet on right now, though at -195 it’s hard to take them on their own. I refuse to take 1.5 lines, so it forces me to pair them with another team. Because it’s the end of what has been a big week I’m pairing them with two teams: the Cardinals and Dodgers.
The Cardinals have lost the first two games of their three-game home series against the Diamondbacks, scoring two runs on Friday and getting shut out on Saturday. Nolan Arenado will be back from his suspension on Sunday, the Cardinals’ offense is due and their past success against Zach Davies is hard to pass up.
The Dodgers were shut down on Saturday, losing 5-1 to the Tigers. Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger combined to go 0-for-17 with three walks. On Sunday, the Dodgers have Walker Buehler going against Eduardo Rodriguez. While I hate betting against Rodriguez from past history against the Yankees, like the Cardinals, the Dodgers are due, especially righties in Mookie Betts (.730 OPS), Trea Turner (.724 OPS) and Justin Turner (.526 OPS), and a matchup against a second straight lefty is just what they need.
The winning streak has come to an end. After eight straight days of finishing ahead, Friday’s 0-1-1 performance. Today is a new day with full 15-game slate and a chance to start a new winning streak.
Here are the bets for Saturday, April 30.
Astros-Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-110) The 2022 Astros aren’t the Astros of old. They can’t score. With Jose Altuve injured, George Springer a Blue Jay and Carlos Correa a Twin, the Astros don’t coast the fearful lineup they once did. The bottom third of their order is weak and the middle of their lineup hasn’t hit. That doesn’t bode well for a matchup against Jose Berrios. Add in Luis Garcia and his strong season to date, and what you have is another low-scoring game between two teams who have struggled to consistently generate offense.
Reds-Rockies Under 11 (-110) An 11! In recent years, an 11 at Coors Field would have been low. In 2022 though, with books dropping the totals as much as they can, 11 feels like 15. Chad Kuhl has been really good this season, and despite me having zero confidence in Connor Overton containing the Rockies, how can you not take an 11? The combination of Kuhl and the an awful Reds offense is enough to feel good about what would have been too low of a total to take a year ago.
Yankees -195 over Royals Giants -235 over Nationals (+115) The Yankees continue to win and their near -200 line every night means they need a parlay partner. Today it’s the Giants. The Giants’ 14-4 to the Nationals on Friday night is what ended the winning streak (had them paired with the Yankees last night as well). But with Logan Webb starting and the Nationals due for an offensive regression following a 14-run performance with a two-man lineup, the Giants are a must today.
A nice 3-1 day yesterday with the only loss coming in the Yankees’ 10-5 win over the Orioles, crushing the under 8.5. I don’t like the options for tonight, but there’s only 179 regular-season days to bet on baseball. Can’t take a night off!
Here are the bets for Friday, April 29.
Yankees -200 over Orioles Giants -235 over Nationals (+114) Let’s run it back! Another Yankees-Giants parlay? Why not?! Here’s to them beating up on the two rivals.
Braves-Rangers Under 9 (-120) There’s not much on the board tonight. This is the only under I like and I don’t even really like it. Even though the Braves can’t score, no under can be trusted in Texas, especially with the Rangers using an opener/bullpen game to try to get through this one.
The Yankees went 6-0 on their homestand, have won seven of eight and have the best record in the American League. It’s been a good last week to be a Yankees fan.
The Yankees went 6-0 on their homestand, have won eight of nine and have the best record in the American League. It’s been a good last week to be a Yankees fan.
1. What a difference a week makes. A week ago, the Yankees were getting shut out for the third time in 13 games to start the season, losing to the Tigers and missing their second chance in two tries to sweep a series in 2022. It was an all-too-familiar performance from a Yankees offense that failed to finish off series with sweeps in 2021 and left countless winnable games on the table. The Yankees had gone an unacceptable 3-3 on their road trip to Baltimore and Detroit and everything about the team looked and smelled like the 2021 team.
The Yankees returned home to beat the Guardians last Friday, and on Saturday, after blowing a one-run, eighth-inning lead, it looked like the Yankees were headed to leaving yet another winnable game on the table. But after their ninth-inning comeback to walk off the Guardians on Saturday afternoon, the Yankees have looked like a completely different team. If the Yankees get to where they want to go this season, somewhere they haven’t been in going on 13 years, I think we will look back at Saturday, April 23 as the win that turned the season.
2. The Yankees don’t deserve praise or special treatment for winning six straight against the Guardians (who will likely finish around .500 this season), or the Orioles (who will likely finish as the worst team in the American League this season). The Yankees simply did their job in winning eight of nine against the Tigers, Guardians and Orioles, but I guess they could use some praise for doing their job since it’s something these Yankees haven’t done in a long time.
Last season, the Yankees’ inability to beat up on bad teams is what ruined their chances at winning the division, what forced them into the one-game playoff and what forced the one-game playoff to be played at Fenway Park. The 2021 Yankees went 25-23 against the Orioles, Indians, Tigers, Mets, Nationals and Angels, including a paltry 11-8 against an Orioles team that went 1-18 against the Rays.
The Yankees scored 27 runs over the last three days against the Orioles. They scored double-digit runs in three of their last four games. Last year, the Yankees scored double-digit runs six times. The Yankees’ 37 runs over the last four games surpassed their 35 runs scored in the previous 12 games. Nothing can get an offense going like Orioles pitching, which makes it all the more amazing that the Yankees lost two of three to the Orioles two weeks ago and scored just six measly runs in 29 innings at Camden Yards of all places.
3. It’s hard to fathom how the Yankees truly believed an all-right-handed lineup would be best for a team that plays half of its games at Yankee Stadium. After seeing Anthony Rizzo hit three home runs on Tuesday night, taking full advantage of the short porch in right, it made me happy to see Rizzo having such an impressive start to this season after posting his worst statistical season in 2021 since his rookie year in 2013. It also infuriated me as I couldn’t help but think back to all the times Brian Cashman spoke to the media and tried to sell everyone on the idea of the New York Yankees having no left-handed power in their lineup, and the only left-handed presence of the last few years being Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Rougned Odor, Mike Ford and Didi Gregorius. They really thought they could win like that. A team that is focused on optimizing every possible advantage (except at manager) with high-end nutritionists, renowned strength trainers and sleep specialists, who determine the best possible time for the team to depart for road games, the Yankees purposely constructed a team the last few seasons with comical left-handed bats. Thankfully, they admitted their mistake at last year’s trade deadline and brought in Rizzo and Joey Gallo, and then brought Rizzo back. (They didn’t have to bring Gallo back as he was under contract for 2022).
Yes, I wanted Freddie Freeman over Rizzo, as did anyone who’s not related to Rizzo, but so far Rizzo has exceeded expectations and I’m ecstatic that what could have been considered the start of the downfall of his career last year may have just been one down year for him.
4. On Tuesday, Luis Severino had a no-hitter through 5 1/3 innings and the Yankees had a 6-0 lead. I thought the Yankees were on their way to their second straight laugher. Instead, the Yankees ended up needing to use Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga and Aroldis Chapman in a game in which they had two different six-run leads.
He eventually left the game in the seventh with this line: 6 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. What was looking like his best start of the young season ended up being his worst. But through four stars, he’s averaging a strikeout per inning with a 3.32 ERA. For a guy who made only five starts over the previous three-and-a-half years, Severino has been really good.
He eventually left the game in the seventh with this line: 6 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. What was looking like his best start of the young season ended up being his worst. But through four stars, he’s averaging a strikeout per inning with a 3.32 ERA. For a guy who made only five starts over the previous three-and-a-half years, Severino has been really good.
Jordan Montgomery had another good start (5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HR) with both of the runs he allowed coming on a sixth-inning, game-tying home run. Jameson Taillon was could get out of the fifth inning in his start (4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), putting nine baserunners on and leaving with the Yankees trailing.
It was the Yankees’ worst starting pitching series this season, and even so, the starters pitched to a 4.41 ERA, which isn’t great, but it’s not horrible. With this offense (or at least the offense we have seen of late), a 4.41 starters’ ERA over a full season would still get the Yankees into the postseason.
5. Here’s my current level of trust with the rotation (scale of 1-10):
Gerrit Cole: 7.9 Against bad teams it’s somewhere around a 9.6. Against the Rays, Blue Jays or Red Sox, it’s in the 3s.
Luis Severino: 7.7 As long as he’s healthy, the last time he wasn’t a superb front-end starter was in 2016.
Nestor Cortes: 6.8 The most enjoyable of the five to watch, I feel good when he’s on the mound. (2019 me can’t believe I wrote that.)
Jordan Montgomery: 5.3 I’m always waiting for him to allow the crooked number after cruising for three or four innings (like he did again on Wednesday).
Jameson Taillon: 4.1 He reminds me too much of Phil Hughes to ever feel truly good and confident with him. There always seems to be traffic (hat tip, Aaron Boone!) on the bases when he’s on the mound and he rarely ever gives the team adequate length.
6. It was the worst series for the bullpen as well. It was the first time the bullpen has been hit all season and for it to happen against the Orioles was odd. The line: 9.2 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 5 BB, 15 K, 2 HR, 6.51 ERA, 1.758 WHIP. It wasn’t good, but thankfully, it didn’t matter.
It didn’t matter because the offense showed up, and the best part about scoring 27 runs in three games is Boone was completely taken out of the series from a bullpen management standpoint. Scoring consistently is Yankees’ best (and only chance) to win over the long haul because it makes all of Boone’s decisions moot. He can’t ruin games by getting his hands on the game since there’s no illogical, nonsensical decision that can match up with the kind of offensive production. When the Yankees can outhit and outscore Boone, it makes winning that much more fun and enjoyable.
7. The only enjoyable part of the offense has been Josh Donaldson. Aaron Judge now has five home runs and a .944 OPS. Giancarlo Stanton just went 5-for-11 with two walks. DJ LeMahieu is hitting .313 with an .858 OPS and a 12-game hitting streak. Rizzo has a league-leading eight home runs. Hicks has a .377 OBP. Gallo finally homered and homered twice in the series. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting .298. Even Gleyber Torres has six RBIs, had the big sacrifice fly on Opening Day and the walkoff single against the Guardians. Josh Donaldson needs to join the party.
Donaldson had the walkoff hit on Opening Day and the momentary go-ahead home run last Saturday against the Guardians, but overall his plate appearances have been painful to watch. The power hasn’t been there (.348 SLG), getting on base hasn’t been there (.312 OBP), and he’s chasing bad pitches and getting himself out, something I never saw him do while playing against the Yankees. Maybe his elite playing days are done and he’s finally washed up or maybe he’s just in a season-opening slump. All I know is he hasn’t been hitting into bad luck. He’s just not been hitting.
I’m not worried about Stanton. I know who he is as a player, and he could homer four times in the next six games. At some point he’s going to do something exactly like that. But with nearly the entire lineup slumping prior to Sunday, which was the first time the Yankees scored six runs this season without the automatic runner), it would be nice if that power and home run barrage arrived this week.
Stanton went 5-for-11 with a home run, four RBIs and two walks in the series. The home run came on Wednesday, and when Stanton homers, they usually come in bunches. Because he didn’t homer on Thursday, I’m thinking the Royals should be worried about this weekend.
9. The Royals should be worried because we haven’t seen the Yankees be this good against bad teams since 2019. That Yankees team went 17-2 against the Orioles and 50-12 against the Orioles, Royals, Mariners, Angels, Giants and Red Sox: all bad teams that season. That Yankees team was the best of the teams from this core, winning 103 games and the team’s only division title since 2012. It was made possible by beating up on the bad teams.
The Royals are a bad team. They aren’t bad like Orioles or Reds bad since they do have a future and a plan, something the Orioles haven’t had for the last few years and something the Reds clearly don’t have now. But they are bad in the sense that they’re still a few years away and their current talent level and ability doesn’t match that of the Yankees on paper and shouldn’t on the field either.
10. After this weekend in Kansas City, the consecutive cupcake schedule of Detroit, Cleveland Baltimore and Kansas City is over. In May, the Yankees will play the Blue Jays five times, the White Sox seven times, the Rays four times and will start a three-game series with the Angels on the last day of the month. They will have games against the Orioles and Rangers sprinkled in, but the Yankee don’t have another stretch of games like the one they’re currently in against mediocre to awful teams.
The Yankees have done their job. Even including the debacle in Baltimore two weeks ago, they have gone 9-3 in these 12 games. They have gotten fat in term of wins and now have the best record in the AL and are a 1/2 game ahead of the Blue Jays, two games up on the Rays and 5 1/2 games up on the Red Sox. They have mostly won the games they are supposed to win and have put the pressure on their division competition to do the same when they play the weak part of their schedules.
It’s been a good week to be a Yankees. No. It’s been a great week to be a Yankees fan.
The hot streak continues. Here’s to praying it never ends!
Here are the bets for Thursday, April 28.
Yankees-Orioles Under 8.5 (-115) I wish this line were 9. I really do. I don’t trust Jameson Taillon. I don’t trust him to keep people off base, I don’t trust him to give the Yankees length and I don’t trust him to keep the ball on the right said of the fence. But even if he only goes five innings, I trust the Yankees’ bullpen to keep the Orioles off the board and therefore Taillon could give up three runs over five and this would still look good.
It would still look good because Bruce Zimmermann owns the Yankees. His last two starts against the Yankees: 10.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K, 1 HR. You would think the Yankees would own a lefty like Zimmermann with his arsenal, but it’s been the other way around.
The Yankees are due for a letdown offensive performance because of how their past week has gone, because Zimmermann dominates them and because it’s a weekday afternoon, getaway day game and the Yankees usually mail those in.
Red Sox-Blue Jays Under 8 (-115) Alek Manoah will shut the Red Sox down. That’s a guarantee. The question mark in the equation is if the Red Sox’ bullpen can hold the Blue Jays down after Garrett Whitlock opens the game.
At worst, I can see Manoah giving up three runs, and it’s hard to envision him doing that. The Red Sox’ bullpen is atrocious, and this game could 0-0 after four, and Whitlock gets removed and the Blue Jays have a day against the Red Sox relievers. But if that happens, it will be an Under 8 with only five innings to play.
Cubs-Braves Under 8.5 (-110) My favorite under of the day. Kyle Wright has been outstanding through his first three starts this season and Drew Smyly has been really good as well, on his now seventh team in 11 years. The Braves can’t score. The Cubs aren’t any good. The two starting pitchers are solid. This is my favorite under of the day.
Astros -165 over Astros Cardinals -180 over Diamondbacks (+149) I want to put the Yankees in this parlay as well, but I’m scared of how hot they have been, the opposing pitcher and it being a weekday afternoon, getaway game for them. It’s a recipe for disaster for them, and I have seen them lose that exact game too many times.
If the Astros had to pick one starting pitcher to face it would be Martin Perez, and he’s starting this game for the Rangers. I have no idea how Perez is still in the league and how he keeps getting new contracts from different teams. I get that the Rangers suck and aren’t going anywhere and someone has to pitch the innings, but Perez? Even if Justin Verlander lays an egg here, the Astros’ offense will be able to make up for it.
I don’t like betting on the Cardinals. Like the Nationals, Phillies and Braves, historically they have screwed me with anemic offenses. I do everything I can to not bet in favor of those teams. But when you’re playing the 2022 Diamondbacks at home, it’s hard to not to bet in favor of the Cardinals.
