I was worried I would think the Giants might improve defensively and turn this season into something other than experience for Daniel Jones and a rebuilding year. The loss to the Vikings returned me to reality.
I was worried this would happen. I was worried I would think after two straight wins that the Giants might be able to improve defensively as the season progressed and turn this season into something other than experience for Daniel Jones and a rebuilding year. Sunday’s 28-10 loss to the Vikings brought all Giants fans back down to Earth.
For as bad as the Giants’ defense was against the Cowboys, Bills and Buccaneers, it was at a season-worst against the Vikings. Kirk Cousins, who I’m rightfully critical of each week in my picks blog, threw for 98, 230, 174 and 233 yards in the first four weeks of the season. The Giants’ defense allowed him to throw for 278 yards in the first half alone on Sunday and a total of 351 yards to the Vikings’ offense. Dalvin Cook finished with 132 rushing yards and Adam Thielen had 130 receiving yards. The Giants made the Vikings look like the Super Bowl contender everyone thought they would be when they signed Cousins, only to have gone 11-10 with him.
It wasn’t any better on the other side of the ball as the Giants managed to score 10 points at home and failed many times in the red zone thanks to an 0-for-3 day on fourth down. Despite the Vikings taking 12 penalties totaling 112 yards, the Giants weren’t able to find the end zone outside of one second-quarter drive. Jones didn’t play, Wayne Gallman got injured and Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram dropped several would-be big-play passes. It was the exact kind of performance one should expect from the 2019 Giants with a rookie quarterback and this defense, but the last two weeks briefly made all Giants fans forget how unpredictable the offense is, especially without Saquon Barkley, and how bad the defense is.
It made no sense at the time that the Giants were only 5 1/2-points underdogs to the Vikings, though that line was most likely skewed by the Giants’ two-game winning streak and the Vikings’ embarrassing week against the Bears, and it made even less sense after watching the game.
Now the Giants have a short week with a Thursday Night Football road game against the Patriots to prepare for. I thought it would be an impressive accomplishment to come away from these two games with one win, thinking the Vikings game was certainly more winnable than the Patriots game. If an 18-point home loss was the easier of the two, it’s scary to think what a rookie quarterback on a short week will do against Bill Belichick, and if Kirk Cousins is able to throw for 278 yards in a single half against the Giants, history might be made by Tom Brady against this defense.
It’s not all bad for the Giants. They have still two wins on the season, Jones looks like he’s the true future for the Giants, and if you’re into thinking the Giants have a postseason chance (they don’t), they’re still only one game back in the NFC East, not that they’re ever going to pass the Eagles or Cowboys. At least they won’t be mathematically eliminated as early as they have been in recent years.
The Giants are headed in the right direction on offense, though I’m not sure that’s necessarily the case on defense. Aside from Week 4 against the Redskins and a quarterback who was deemed unready to play prior to the game, the defense hasn’t had close to even an OK game. Aside from the Redskins game, the defense has allowed 35, 28, 31 and 28 points and those numbers would be even worse if the opposition had any reason to try in the second half or if the Buccaneers’ kicker hadn’t missed two extra points and a game-winning, 34-yard field-goal attempt. And also aside from the Redskins game, the defense has allowed 470, 388, 380 and 490 totals yards in each game, and like the points, most of those yards have been first-half yards with the opposition having no reason to do anything other than run the ball and eat the clock in the second half.
The offense wasn’t able to convert fourth downs or do much of anything in the red zone against the Vikings, but that’s against a top-tier defense in the league and one that will most likely lead the Vikings to the playoffs and could lead them to at least NFC Championship Game. The offense will be fine going forward and will be more than fine a year from now. The defense? That has a long way to go, and if the Giants plan on improving as the season moves on and plan to actually do something with their season in 2020, it’s going to need to miraculously improve or it’s going to need a lot of personnel changes.
The Yankees have won the first two games of the postseason, the way any team wins in the postseason: timely hitting and great pitching.
I wasn’t worried about Game 2 as I walked into Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Because of the quick turnaround with the 5:07 p.m. start, I was a little tired and still a little hungover, but I was as confident about the Yankees as I was when I left the Stadium less than 18 hours earlier. After watching the Twins have trouble beating the Replacement Yankees during the regular season and after watching the Twins unsuccessfully use their best starter in Game 1, I couldn’t have been more calm and more relaxed before a postseason game. But what had me feeling great about Game 2 was the Twins’ decision to start a rookie with 28 1/3 career innings to his name and less-than-desirable strikeout numbers against this Yankees lineup in New York.
Everyone knows Randy Dobnak’s story at this point: an undrafted independent league pitcher who was driving for Uber and Lyft before getting a chance with the Twins. And for anyone at the Stadium who didn’t know it, they found out as the crowd serenaded Dobnak with “U-BER … U-BER … U-BER” chants throughout his two-plus innings of work. My expectations for the Yankees to solve Dobnak — who they had never seen — were quickly met in the first inning when D(erek) J(eter) LeMahieu doubled to lead off the game and Aaron Judge followed with a walk. Two batters later, Edwin Encarnacion drove in LeMahieu with a single, the Yankees had the lead and Dobnak had thrown 19 pitches, recorded one out and was already trailing with two men still on base. Dobnak escaped the first inning without further damage and pitched around two, two-out singles in the second, but in the third inning, facing the lineup for a second time after it had already had success against him the first, things unraveled for the right-hander.
Nine pitches into the third, Dobnak had loaded the bases with no outs after Judge singled, Brett Gardner walked and Encarnacion singled. Dobnak was removed from the game with his team trailing by one and still responsible for all three runners on base. Tyler Duffey, arguably the Twins’ best reliever, and one of their “elite” arms, which were said to be elite enough to go toe-to-toe with the Yankees’ relievers prior to the series entered for the second straight night, and for the second straight night, made sure his teammate got tagged with his inherited runners.
Giancarlo Stanton had a productive at-bat with a sacrifice fly to make it 2-0 and then Gleyber Torres came through with an 0-2 single to make it 3-0. Gary Sanchez got hit by an 0-2 pitch to reload the bases, bringing up Didi Gregorius, who struggled all season after returning from Tommy John surgery to the point it was a legitimate question if the Yankees were better off with Torres at short and Gregorius on the bench rather than playing with an automatic out in the lineup.
Two years after Gregorius saved the Yankees’ season in the first inning of the 2017 wild-card game against the Twins, he was about to put the Twins’ historic 101-win season on the brink of elimination. Gregorius fell behind Duffey 0-2, but battled to extend the at-bat by three more pitches. The third pitch ended up in the second deck in right field for a grand slam to give the Yankees a 7-0 lead. With one out in the bottom of the third, Game 2 was over.
It was over because for the second straight game, the offense had exploded. Finishing Game 2 with eight runs, the Yankees had produced 18 runs in two postseason games, a ridiculous number, and a number that isn’t supposed to be possible at this time of year. But the game was also over because Masahiro Tanaka, the most trusted Yankees postseason pitcher once again stepped up in October.
There was a lot of concern and a lack of trust for Tanaka entering the postseason because of another inconsistent regular season (though his numbers were marred by two awful starts) and because his 1.80 career postseason ERA was being attributed by many as luck. His postseason career FIP was in line with his regular-season career FIP, and therefore, his much lower ERA was being called a result of luck. It couldn’t be because Tanaka is a much different pitcher in the biggest games. It couldn’t be because Tanaka thrives on the postseason stage, never having allowed more than two earned runs in a postseason start. It had to be because of luck.
In Game 2, Tanaka pitched to this line: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K. A night after James Paxton was oddly being heralded as having pitched well (4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 2 HR) against a vaunted Twins lineup, Tanaka actually did pitch well, dominating the all-time, single-season home run team. I’m not sure how many impressive postseason starts it will take Tanaka for Yankees fans to unanimously accept he’s a different pitcher in October, or maybe he will just continue to be the luckiest postseason pitcher of all time.
Tanaka didn’t need to be his dominant October self in Game 2, considering the performance the offense put together, but he was anyway. The lone run against him came when Mitch Garver weakly tapped a ground ball to a vacated second base with Torres shifting on the left side of the infield. And with two on and one out in the fourth, the Twins trailing 8-1 and trying to get back into the game, Tanaka struck out Luis Arraez and Miguel Sano on a combined eight pitches to end the inning. In his last inning of work in the fifth, he pitched a perfect, 10-pitch frame, before handing the ball off to the bullpen for the sixth, in order to not face the heart of the order for a third time.
The win improved the Yankees to 15-2 against the Twins in the postseason with the two losses coming in 2003 and 2004 and against Johan Santana. But throughout all the postseason meetings against the Twins, the Yankees never easily or handily beat them the way they have in the first two game of this ALDS. Whether it was overcoming 0-1 series deficits to Santana, or needing Alex Rodriguez to single-handedly win a game or Ruben Sierra to hit a massive late-game home run or Joe Nathan to implode in the ninth inning or Lance Berkman to create a comeback or Gregorius to save the season, the Yankees have always beat the Twins, but they have always had to truly work for it and put a scare into the entire fan base on their way to winning. Games 1 and 2 this have both resulted in eventual laughers.
I have been worried for three-and-a-half innings in this series. The first two-and-a-half innings of Game 1 when the Yankees trailed 2-0, the top of the fifth in Game 1 when the Twins tied the game at 3 against Paxton and the top of the first in Game 1 when Tanaka had two baserunners on. Aside from those innings, the Yankees have held the lead for the entire series.
The Yankees have won the first two games of the postseason the way any team wins in the postseason: timely hitting and great pitching. Though they didn’t necessarily get “great” pitching in Game 1, they got “good enough” pitching and more than enough timely hitting to make up for it. The pitching staff has held the second-best offense in baseball this season and the top home run-hitting team in baseball history to six runs in two games. They are getting production from each third of the lineup, and have scored 18 runs in 16 innings without either Stanton or Sanchez getting a hit yet. The best part of it all is the offense has taken Aaron Boone and any wild in-game managerial stunts he might pull completely out of the series. The first two games couldn’t have gone any better for the Yankees.
The series isn’t over yet, but it’s close to being over. The Twins used their best starting pitcher in Game 1 and lost. The Yankees have their best starting pitcher going in Game 3 with a chance to advance to the ALCS.
Two down, nine to go.
***
My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
DJ LeMahieu went from the bench on Opening Day to becoming the Yankees’ MVP all season and he was once again worthy of that title in Game 1.
The wait between Game 162 of the regular season and Game 1 of the ALDS felt like sitting in a doctor’s office waiting room all week. It’s been a long time since the Yankees had such the extended layoff between the end of the regular season and the start of the postseason because it’s been a long time since they reached the postseason without playing in the wild-card game.
It’s also been a long time since the Yankees played a meaningful game. The division was essentially won back at the end of June and with the organization’s half-hearted attempt in September to win home-field advantage, the Yankees have essentially been playing exhibition games since shortly before the All-Star break. Nearly the entire regular season was a formality — the way it was many times between 1995-2012 — and the last six-plus months have been about preparing for Friday night and the postseason.
I got to my seat in Yankee Stadium just in time to see the sad sight of Dellin Betances hobbling to the first-base line on crutches. The second-best relief pitcher in Yankees history and the one true bright spot on the team during the dark years between 2013 and 2016 deserved to be able to pitch in his free-agency year and in these playoffs. I felt sad for Betances on a night that would be stressful and hopefully end in happiness. But outside of James Paxton’s pitching performance, I wouldn’t be sad again.
I wanted the rotation to be Luis Severino in Game 1 followed by Paxton in Game 2 and Masahiro Tanaka in Game 3. I wanted Severino in the first game because he’s the team’s best pitcher and innings-wise his arm is in early April when he’s at his best. There’s no fatigue with Severino after a season of 30-plus starts and he looked like his usual self in his three short starts in September. I wanted Tanaka in Game 3 because I trust him more than the other two to make adjustments mid-game (the guy completely changed the grip of his signature pitch which has made his career) and not get rattled on the road. I would then have slotted Paxton second because he’s the lone lefty to give a different look between the righties and because of his post-July success.
Paxton’s first-inning troubles returned at the worst time. He allowed a solo home run to Jorge Polanco in the first, but settled down with a scoreless second before allowing a two-out solo home run to Nelson Cruz in the third. As Cruz walked to the plate, I joked that he scares me more than David Ortiz, and then Cruz sent the first pitch of the at-bat over the right-field wall, coincidentally tying Ortiz with 17 postseason home runs.
Paxton wasn’t good in his 4 2/3 innings aside from racking up eight strikeouts. He allowed three earned runs, six baserunners and two home runs. Yes, the Twins have a deep and dangerous lineup and he gave the team two more outs than they probably felt they needed, but three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings isn’t going to work this month unless the offense is going to hit the way it hit last night.
It’s crazy to remember DJ LeMahieu wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup. He has been the team’s best and most valuable player since the first weekend of the season and continues to impress with each game. I expect LeMahieu to come through in every at-bat at this point, and he always seems to. Thankfully, his odd second-inning error didn’t result in any Twins runs, but he more than made up for it anyway with a home run, which gave the Yankees an important insurance run in the sixth, and a bases-loaded, bases-clearing double to break the game open in the seventh. He was the team’s most valuable player all season and was again in Game 1 of the ALDS.
I recently joked about ending up in the emergency room if the Yankees batted Brett Gardner third in the playoffs. It was one thing (though still ridiculous) to bat Gardner third in May when the entire team was on the injured list, but in the playoffs? Sure enough, there he was, batting third for Game 1. Gardner probably wouldn’t even be in the lineup if Aaron Hicks were healthy, and outside of Didi Gregorius, he’s the worst hitter on the team, yet somehow is batting ahead of Edwin Encarnacion, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez. Just because he bats left-handed doesn’t mean he has to bat third, and there’s no need to have to break up all of the righties. Gardner hit a solo home run and the Yankees won, so I’m sure he will be back in the 3-hole for Game 2, but that doesn’t mean it’s the right move, especially long-term in these playoffs.
The quick hook on Adam Ottavino all season and again in Game 1 continues to be puzzling. I have been scared of Aaron Boone’s faith in Tommy Kahnle and lack of faith in Ottavino and have worried about Kahnle blowing a playoff game and he was on his way to on Friday. Thankfully, Boone didn’t have any say or impact on the game because the offense put up 10 runs and no type of bullpen management could ruin a blowout win. If only the Yankees could score 10 runs every game in October and take their manager out of the game.
For all of the postseason wins over the Twins since 2003, they have mostly come as a result of late-game heroics or wild comebacks. There haven’t been many “easy” wins, especially in Game 1.
I have always felt the division series should be more than a best-of-5 because after a six-month grind to reach the postseason, your season could essentially be over in 24 hours if you have two bad games. The Yankees have a chance to essentially end the Twins’ season on Saturday in Game 2, and it will be Masahiro Tanaka and his 1.50 ERA in five postseason games who can put the Yankees up 2-0.
The grace period with these Yankees is over. This season is the first season of the window of opportunity for this core to win a championship.
No one expected the 2016 Yankees to be any good. And they weren’t.
They got off to a 9-17 start, and it was obvious they had to tear apart the team and play prospects, and this time, every fan wanted them to do just that. Free agency had been the Yankees’ strategy since the early 2000s and a way for the team to plug holes on their sinking ship. It worked at times as they were able to tread water, have winning seasons and reach the playoffs, but over the previous 15 years, they had won one championship. Eventually you need to start over. Eventually you need a new boat. The game had changed and the Yankees needed a new boat. Yankees fans wanted a new boat.
At the end of play on July 6, 2016, the Yankees were 41-43 and it looked like they would certainly be sellers at the deadline in three weeks, but ownership wasn’t on board. The Yankees then went on an 11-5 run through July 26, and were now in striking distance of a wild-card spot — only four games back — and ownership hadn’t budged on selling and giving up on the season for future seasons. The expectation was that the Yankees would go out and acquire more patches for their old, under-performing, beat-up roster.
The Yankees then lost their next four games, one in Houston and a three-game sweep in Tampa Bay. It was the best thing to happen to the organization since the Astros, Indians, Expos, Orioles and Reds passed on Derek Jeter in the 1992 draft, allowing the Yankees to select him with the sixth-overall pick. The losing streak pushed the Yankees out of reasonable contention, ownership gave Brian Cashman the green light to trade his veteran assets and begin what the Yankees were calling a “transition”.
Andrew Miller (Indians), Aroldis Chapman (Cubs), Carlos Beltran (Rangers) and Ivan Nova (Pirates) were all traded, and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira announced their retirements. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge were called up to become everyday players, and in the process, Brian McCann was relegated to backup duty, which would lead to his offseason trade to the Astros. The Yankees had finally decided to show off the depth in their farm system, and thanks to that four-game losing streak at the end of July, the depth only got deeper with the top prospects they received in return.
The 2017 Yankees weren’t supposed to be good either, picked by many to finish near or at the bottom of the AL East in what was certainly going to be a rebuilding season. There ended up not being any transition or rebuilding. The Yankees seemingly hit on every prospect who reached the majors and the team went from preseason dud to postseason bound, winning 91 games and putting up a plus-198 run differential.
The 2017 Yankees overcame a 3-0 first-inning deficit in the wild-card game. They overcame an 0-2 series hole to the 102-win Indians to advance to the ALCS. They overcame another 0-2 series hole to the Astros to bring a 3-2 series lead to Houston for Games 6 and 7. Ultimately, they came one win shy of reaching the World Series for the first time in eight years.
For 2018, the Yankees essentially replaced Chase Headley, Starlin Castro and Jacoby Ellsbury with Giancarlo Stanton (the reigning NL MVP), Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres and the Aaron Hicks who was drafted in the first round. Once again, they came up short in the postseason.
The 2017 postseason loss wasn’t crushing. It was an exhilarating ride, being back at a raucous Stadium seemingly every night in October and watching a young, homegrown core get within a game of the World Series. The 2018 postseason loss, on the other hand, was crushing. After falling into and winning the wild-card game, and taking a game in Boston, the Yankees became the favorite in what had become a best-of-3 with two games at the Stadium, where they didn’t lose. Not only did they lose both home games, they were embarrassed in every facet of the game, especially managing, and their rival celebrated on their field en route to a championship season.
Because of the way the season ended and the team it ended against, 2018 is viewed as a disaster, and rightfully so. But if you go back to 2016, 2017 and 2018 were never supposed to be about the Yankees. They were supposed to be about the Indians and Astros and Red Sox and Cubs and Dodgers, and they were. The timeline Yankees fans were given and expected prior to Opening Day 2016 was always 2019, these Yankees just happened to arrive early. The 2017 and 2018 Yankees gave us two unexpected years of championship contention even if it didn’t end with a championship.
This season could have and probably should have been a disaster. When you set the single-season record for most players placed on the injured list, you’re not supposed to win your division or 103 games. You’re not supposed to sustain success with backups becoming everyday players and backups to the backups carrying the team for weeks at a time. The Yankees got 49 plate appearances from Miguel Andujar, 18 games from Giancarlo Stanton and 59 from Aaron Hicks; Gary Sanchez missed six weeks and Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge each missed two months; Luis Severino pitched 12 innings and Dellin Betances faced two batters; James Paxton and Brett Gardner made trips to the injured list and CC Sabathia made several. Despite these injuries and more, the Yankees won the AL East.
It’s nearly impossible to predict who will and won’t perform in the postseason, with the goal being to get there and then hoping things go your way. The Yankees achieved that goal, winning the division for the first time since Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin and Nick Swisher were Yankees. The next goal is to eliminate the Twins for sixth time in 17 years, win the pennant and get back to the World Series, a place they haven’t been since Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and A.J. Burnett were Yankees. The championship grace period for the organization is over. It’s long over. It’s been a decade of Octobers since the Yankees last reached the World Series and last won it.
The grace period for these Yankees is over as well. This season is the first season of the window of opportunity for this core to win a championship. There’s no more consolation prize for coming within a game of the World Series and losing or having another 100-win regular season and getting eliminated in the first round. From here on out, every season with this group which doesn’t end with a championship will be a missed opportunity.
These Yankees were expected to truly contend in the 2019 postseason and it’s here. This is supposed to be their time.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!
Last week was certainly forgettable, but thankfully, there’s another week ahead to get back to winning, and 13 more weeks to erase this under-.500 record.
The Giants have done exactly what I thought they would do. They have turned a lost 0-2 season into a reel-Giants-fans-back-in 2-2 season. But after playing two easy opponents (though no opponent for the Giants is easy), they now have the Vikings on Sunday followed by the Patriots on Thursday. Winning one of the two next games would be a major accomplishment and would continue to keep this season alive. Losing both would send the season right back to where it was before the Daniel Jones era began.
I haven’t bought into this Giants team as one that has turned their season around and is going to truly battle for a postseason berth. It’s hard to when their defense got worked over for the first three weeks of the seasons, and one of their two wins was a direct result of a kicker missing two extra points and a game-winning, 34-yard field-goal attempt. The only game the Giants looked convincingly better than their opponent was against the Redskins last week, and the Redskins are winless and were forced to play their rookie quarterback who had yet to play because the head coached deemed him not ready.
After the Vikings and Patriots, the Giants also have to play the Cowboys, Eagles twice, Bears and Packers. Since no opponent is “easy” when it comes to the Giants, let’s assume the following opponents aren’t “easy” but rather “easier” than the others: Cardinals, Lions, Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. (I included the 2-1-1 Lions who are extremely close to being 4-0 with the “easier” group because they don’t belong with the first list of teams.) That gives the Giants seven challenging games and five “easier” games to play.
It’s quite possible the Giants could fight for a seven- or eight-win season, which would be a successful season considering how the last two seasons went, most of the games will have been started by a rookie quarterback, the absence of Saquon Barkley for multiple weeks, the state of the defense and that Pat Shurmur is their head coach. I would sign up for 7-9 or 8-8 right now because that would mean the team is actually making progress rather than deteriorating and continuing to go in the wrong direction. It would also mean I cover my over six wins prediction for the Giants.
The next two weeks will tell us a lot about what to expect from the Giants for the next three months. Two losses and they haven’t changed. One win and there’s reason to be intrigued. Two wins and … if the Giants beat both the Vikings and Patriots to improve to 4-2 on the season and 4-0 with Daniel Jones, I book a hotel room in Miami for the Super Bowl. But let’s start with them winning one of the two games and go from there.
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Well, it’s going to be tough to climb out of this hole. After a nice, solid 9-7 Week 3, Week 4 was an absolute disaster at 5-10. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one losing teasers involving the Colts, Rams, Texans or Vikings, and I’m sure a lot of survivor pool dreams were crushed by the Rams’ lack of defense against a Buccaneers which lost to the Giants. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread with eight of them winning outright.
Week 4 was certainly forgettable, but thankfully, there’s another week ahead to get back to winning, and 13 more weeks to erase this under-.500 record.
(Home team in caps)
Los Angeles +1 over SEATTLE I never like taking the road team on Thursday Night Football and I don’t usually like taking any team at Seattle, but there are exceptions to everything. The exception here is that the Rams suffered an embarrassing loss at home to a Buccaneers team which had to fly across country reeling from a loss to the Giants. The Rams will be looking for redemption on the short week.
CINCINNATI -3 over Arizona After the hard-to-watch Monday Night matchup, which was so hard to watch, I watched it for less than five minutes, we get another winless matchup early on Sunday.
TENNESSEE -3 over Buffalo I was high on the Titans coming into the season and their Week 1 blowout win over the Browns validated my being high on them. Then they went out and back-to-back games and I figured they were the same old .500-ish Titans. But they were able to beat the Falcons (not exactly a great accomplishment) last week and now I’m ready to ride them again.
Chicago -6 over OAKLAND The Colts should be embarrassed for the way they played on Sunday, allowing the Raiders to go down the field on their defense with ease. I can’t envision them having them offensive success this week going against the best defense in the league, even if they are at home. Derek Carr better have his head on a swivel in Khalil Mack’s return to Oakland, where he will want to put on a show for his former fans and for the team who thought it was a good idea to not pay him.
NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Tampa Bay That’s two starts for Teddy Bridgewater and two wins for the Saints. It’s almost as if the Vikings should have kept Bridgewater, so they wouldn’t now be wasting their championship window on the Kirk Cousins era in which they are 10-10 with nearly $100 million in guaranteed money tied up with a mediocre-at-best quarterback.
NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Minnesota My wife is a Vikings fan. Yes, a Vikings from Los Angeles. Long story. Do I really believe the Giants’ winning streak will reach three games and they will be able to score against the Vikings’ defense like they did against Tampa Bay and Washington or that they will be able to play defense against Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs? No. But I can’t pick against them with so much on the line at home.
PHILADELPHIA -13.5 over New York Jets Will the Jets’ offense score a touchdown coming out of their bye week? I don’t think so since the Eagles are also essentially coming out of a bye with a 10-day layoff. This has to be the most pick survivor pool game of the week with the Dolphins on their bye.
Baltimore -3.5 over PITTSBURGH I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Ravens last week and thinking they were in the level just below the Patriots and Chiefs in the AFC. Teams in that level don’t get run out of their own building. But in actuality, that level doesn’t even exist this season. It’s the Patriots and Chiefs and then everyone else is much, much far behind the two. The AFC is essentially the NBA in that we already know how the playoffs will unfold.
New England -15.5 over WASHINGTON The Patriots have failed to cover back-to-back weeks after a defensive touchdown gave the Jets a backdoor cover over them in Week 3 and a missed extra point allowed the Bills to cover in Week 4. After watching the Redskins blow a sizable lead to the Eagles in Week 1 and then get routed by a Giants team which shouldn’t rout any team, I think it’s safe to say the Patriots will get back to covering this week.
CAROLINA -3.5 over Jacksonville Last week, I wrote:
I have never listened to North Carolina sports radio, but if Kyle Allen plays well again, I think I’m going to have to check it out. I want nothing more than for there to be a quarterback controversy with the Panthers.
I think it’s time to tune into North Carolina sports radio because if there isn’t already talk of a quarterback controversy with the Panthers, there should be. The Panthers are 2-0 with Allen and 0-2 with Cam Newton. I don’t know how Newton expects to be the starter when he eventually returns, and I don’t know how he possibly could be the starter with the way Allen has played. If Allen continues to play well and the Panthers continue to win, there won’t be a debate. Newton will be on the bench.
HOUSTON -5 over Atlanta If it always feels like the Texans should be better than they are, it’s because they should be. They have the quarterback and offensive and defensive personnel to be a playoff team each year, but somehow they continue to struggle to score points and win games. Scoring 10 points at home is something that should only happen with teams like the Redskins and Dolphins, certainly not with the Texans. That trend can’t continue at home against the Falcons.
Since the Falcons blew a 25-point, second-half lead in the Super Bowl, they have lost in the first round of the playoffs, gone 7-9 and are now 1-3. If that’s not enough to get a head coach fired who should have been fired the second that awful Super Bowl ended, I don’t know what will be enough.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6.5 over Denver The Dolphins turned in their best performance of the season in Week 4, a 20-point loss to the Chargers. After seeing how bad the Dolphins were in the first three weeks of the season, it was a letdown performance from the Chargers. It’s somewhat understandable since the Chargers never play well outside of the Pacific Time Zone, or California really, but only beating the Dolphins by 20 is a bit of a red flag. Luckily for the Chargers, they return to California and the Pacific Time Zone this week to face a second straight winless opponent in the Broncos.
Green Bay +3.5 over DALLAS Here’s what I wrote last week about the Cowboys:
The Cowboys have yet to be tested after getting the awful defenses of the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2 and then the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in the history of the NFL, in Week 3. The Cowboys are good, but they’re not undefeated, class-of-the-NFC good. Right now, they’re riding high, and probably thinking they’re the cream of the crop in the NFC, as their fans are, but this week in New Orleans should be a nice wake-up call for them after having the easiest opening schedule through Week 3 in the league.
The Cowboys might be able to pick up easy wins against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, but their schedule is too hard for them to bully their way into the playoffs. At some point they’re going to have to win against the league’s better teams to reach the postseason since nine of their 12 remaining games are against Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, New England, Buffalo, Chicago and Los Angeles Rams. As a Giants fan, I hope they extend Dak Prescott before the losing gets too out of hand for the Cowboys.
KANSAS CITY -11 over Indianapolis I know each week in the NFL season is essentially a one-week season and you can’t put a lot of stock into what you see from week to week. But it’s hard for me as someone who watched most of Raiders-Colts last week to not think the Chiefs might be able to tell their punter to stay home on Sunday.
SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 over Cleveland So far, the Monday Night Football games have been Texans-Saints, Broncos-Raiders, Browns-Jets, Bears-Redskins and Bengals-Steelers. Outside of Texans-Saints, it will be nice to once again have a Monday night game with two teams worth staying up for.
I was completely wrong about the Ravens last week against the Browns, as the Ravens turned out to be the same frauds who were humiliated in the playoffs last year. I wasn’t necessarily wrong about the Browns though, since I still believe they are a seven- or eight-win team. If I’m going to be right about that, they’re going to need to continue to be the .500 team they are, and that means losing to equal or better opponents.
