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Author: Neil Keefe

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Giants Will Win And Championship Picks

Two down. One to go. That’s all that’s left for the Giants to return to the Super Bowl. One win. One win! I never thought the Giants would be here. No one did. How could

Two down. One to go. That’s all that’s left for the Giants to return to the Super Bowl. One win. One win!

I never thought the Giants would be here. No one did. How could you when they were 9-7 and losing games to Rex Grossman (twice) and Charvaris Whiteson and Vince Young? I just wanted a shot at the playoffs. I just wanted some meaningful January football for the first time in three years. I didn’t expect anything if they got in. I just wanted that chance to get in the playoffs and hope that something could happen if they did get in.

The comparisons from 2007 to 2011 are eerie, but true for the most part. The paths have been the same, but the Giants teams haven’t been. That postseason they beat the Buccaneers 24-14, the Cowboys 21-17 and the Packers 23-20. Three wins by a combined 17 points. This postseason they have knocked off the Falcons 24-2 and the Packers 37-20. They have won two playoff games by a combined 39 points, and have scored just seven fewer points than they scored in those three playoff games in 2007.

This is a much different Giants team that’s just happening to do it the same way that team did. The team isn’t built around the running game and the defense anymore. Earth, Wind and Fire is long gone and Perry Fewell is the second defensive coordinator since Steve Spagnuolo left after the ’08 season (I try to forget about the Bill Sheridan experiment). It’s already been four years since the Giants shocked the world, but these last few weeks have made it feel like it was just last year by bringing back and reviving glorious memories. These last few weeks have also made the “What Should Have Been” season of 2008 hurt a little less, as the franchise has rebounded from the disappointing 2009 and 2010 seasons.

After the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007 and then went 12-4 in 2008 and locked up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, I thought they would compete for the Super Bowl every year for the next decade the way the Patriots have since 2001. And I still believe the Giants would have won the Super Bowl in 2008 if Plaxico Burress didn’t go to The Latin Quarter that night, and I don’t think I’m the only one.

In 2008, the final four teams were the Cardinals, Eagles, Steelers and Ravens. The Giants beat all four of those teams in the regular season. The Cardinals ended up winning the NFC (the Giants beat them 37-29 in Arizona in Week 12). In the playoffs, the Cardinals won at home against the Falcons, won in sunny Carolina in the divisional round and then beat the Eagles back in Arizona. But during the regular season, the Cardinals lost every outdoor game they played on the East Coast. They lost 24-17 in Washington. They lost 56-35 to the Jets at Giants Stadium. They lost 48-20 in Philadelphia. They lost 47-7 in the snow in New England. (They also lost 27-23 in Carolina, but we won’t count that since it’s not cold there, even if it does help my case.) They went 0-4 in northern, cold weather, outdoor stadiums and lost by a combined 175-79 (an average loss of 44-20). So, yeah if Domenik Hixon isn’t the Giants’ No. 1 receiver against the Eagles in the divisional round, and the Giants beat the Eagles (like they would have with Plaxico), then the Giants host the Cardinals in Giants Stadium on Jan. 18, 2009, and the Giants play the Steelers in the Super Bowl.

The Giants were on top of the world as defending champions and looking primed for another Super Bowl run before Plaxico’s big mistake. They were built for consistent success in the league, and visions of a dynasty filled my head. The way ’08 ended and the way ’09 and ’10 went, I wondered if the Giants would ever get back to the playoffs, which was a long way from thinking about a dynasty. It was second-half collapse after second-half collapse mixed with dagger losses and questionable coaching and general managerial decisions. But that all changed a few weeks when Tony Romo overthrew Miles Austin, and now the Giants are one win from getting back to where they should have been three years ago. They are one win from trying to salvage the lost time of the last three seasons.

Last week I turned to the greatest football motivator ever in Coach Eric Taylor from Friday Night Lights to help prepare for the Giants-Packers (Who cares if he’s not real? I still don’t believe he’s not real. That’s right I believe that Kyle Chandler is an actual high school football coach and not just some guy that’s an amazing actor.) Since last week went about as good as a playoff game could go for a 9-7, 8-point underdog on the road against the 15-1 defending champions, I figured we had to go back to Coach Taylor for the NFC Championship Game.

“I say if we do our best we will have success. And that we own the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is ours.”

A lot of people think this game will come down to the fourth quarter, but I’m hoping it doesn’t. I’m hoping the Giants come out like they did against the Packers, get on the board early and never look back. But if the Giants can’t follow my simple strategy or if Ed Hochuli takes a few pages out of Bill Leavy’s ref manual and decides that he will do everything in his power to send San Francisco to Indianapolis then this game might come down to the fourth quarter, and I like our chances in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is ours.

Eli Manning is the two-minute drill and he’s the fourth quarter. Sure, “Flood Tip” needed a lot of things to go right to be successful, but it was a perfect throw to the corner of the end zone from the Packers’ 37 where Hakeem Nicks had gained position on the Packers defense. And it’s not like we haven’t seen Eli orchestrate incredible and memorable drives at the end of either half. (The drive before halftime against the Cowboys in 2007 divisional round was the biggest non-David Tyree play of that postseason.) It just so happens that Eli passed his brother and Johnny Unitas for the most fourth-quarter touchdowns in a single season in NFL history (take that, Tom Brady). So, yeah if this thing has to go down to the wire, we have the best possible quarterback for the job.

Then there’s Alex Smith, who is responsible for the 49ers’ miraculous comeback in the final minute against the Saints last week. And while it was fun to watch and while I’m thankful that he knocked out the Saints (so that the Giants wouldn’t have to go to the Superdome this weekend) it was still one drive.

There’s already talk about Alex Smith being an “elite” quarterback, and I feel like I’m taking crazy pills like Mugatu in Zoolander. Eli won a Super Bowl. He beat the undefeated Patriots. He had been to the postseason four times before this season and now has six postseason wins and a Super Bowl. He has been selected for the Pro Bowl twice and has done all of this in New York under the biggest microscope in the world with arguably the best quarterback in the history of football as his older brother. It has taken him beating a fourth-quarter touchdown record held by his brother and Unitas and a second playoff win in the Yankee Stadium of football to get non-Giants fans to believe in him.

Alex Smith has been in the league for six seasons and has won one playoff game, and has played in one playoff game. He has had five seasons of .500 football or worse in the league and has played in all 16 games of a regular season just twice. He’s responsible for the head coaching revolving door in San Francisco, and despite a 13-3 record this season, he’s 32-34 in his career.

Look at the situation Mark Sanchez is in. He’s 25 and has played in the league for three years. In his first two seasons, he led the Jets to back-to-back AFC Championship Games. Now after an 8-8 season and missing the postseason, his job status is being questioned and sports radio is being filled with questions like, “Is Mark Sanchez the right quarterback for the Jets?” and “Is Mark Sanchez a starting quarterback in the NFL?” So once again, “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!”

Smith is two years older than Sanchez. He has played in the league for three more years than Sanchez and has accomplished far less than the Jets’ franchise guy, who despite what Woody and Mr. T say, might not even be the team’s starter in 2012.

Let’s not forget that Alex Smith was the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. The No. 1 pick! That means the 49ers thought he was not only the best available quarterback, but the best available player in the entire draft. If Smith had been drafted No. 1 by the Jets and put in Mark Sanchez’s situation and put up the numbers he has put up in San Francisco, he would have either quit or been released by now, and probably wouldn’t be allowed in the tri-state area.

Somehow Sanchez is viewed as a loser who can’t win the big game while Smith is now being treated like someone who has done anything at all in the league, and there’s actual debates about him moving up to the top tier of quarterbacks because he won a single playoff game in six years. Sometimes I hate football.

“Gentlemen, there has been a lot of talk about expectations. Expectation of what we should be able to do, to win. People are expecting … people are expecting quite a bit. I see us winning out there tonight. I have no trouble seeing that. That is not what I’m expecting. I expect you boys to go out there and not take this team lightly, because I promise you … they are gonna come at you with everything they’ve got. I expect you boys to execute. I expect you boys to play football.”

I have tried to keep the hype on the Giants quiet, and I have tried to keep my confidence about this Giants team in the playoffs and this game on Sunday to a minimum. But it’s really hard to not see the 49ers, the perennial underachievers under Alex Smith and look at Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis and not think the Giants have an unbelievable chance of getting there.

The problem is exactly what this quote talks about in “expectations.” I think I have mentioned it in everything I have written about the Giants since they started this miracle run almost a month ago, so why not talk about it again?

The Giants aren’t good with expectations. Actually they suck with expectations. When they came back to beat the Cowboys, everyone thought they would go on this special run since they had their signature close loss to the undefeated Packers (just like the Week 17 loss to the Patriots in 2007). Instead they came out and got lit up for the second time during the season by Rex Grossman and the Redskins. Then they were playing a must-win game against the Jets, and came out sluggish before Victor Cruz’s touchdown changed everything.

They were given a decent shot at beating the Falcons at home, but people expected them to lose. They weren’t really given a shot to beat the 15-1 Packers in Green Bay, and people expected them lose big (Las Vegas opened them at 9-point underdogs. The line moved to 7.5 and then back to 8 before the game.) But now they are still alive after fending off everyone counting them out, and they have done enough to make believe in them with the majority of people now picking them to win in San Francisco this weekend.

“Right now y’all are in control of your destiny. You remember that.

For the Giants to be where they are, a lot of things had to fall perfectly.

Tony Romo had to overthrow Miles Austin on third down in Dallas (This was the most important because with a first down, the Giants’ season is over). Then the Giants had to complete the comeback.

The Giants had to beat the Jets, which it didn’t look like they would before Victor Cruz’s 99-yard touchdown.

The Giants had to beat the Cowboys again, this time at MetLife Stadium

The Falcons had to win in Week 17 and the Lions had to lose so the Giants would play the easier opponent of the Falcons in the first round than the Lions, who didn’t appear to be a good matchup for the Giants.

The Giants had to beat the Falcons.

The 49ers had to beat the Saints, so that if the Giants beat the Packers, the Giants wouldn’t have to play the Saints in New Orleans were the Saints were 9-0 this year (including the playoffs) and outscored opponents by an average of 41-19, and had already beat the Giants in Week 12.

The Giants had to go on the road and beat the 15-1 Packers who had lost one game with Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback since Nov. 28, 2010 and won four playoff games and a Super Bowl in that time.

So, here we are. Everything and I mean everything has broken just right for the Giants to be playing this Sunday in San Francisco. They have gotten help around the board for the possibility to play the lesser 49ers for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, and they have to know this, and they have to do their part in completing the massive parlay they hit to get here.

And my picks for the NFC and AFC Championships…

New York Giants +2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I think I have said what I need to say.

Giants 31, 49ers 16

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND
Everyone is talking about the Tom Brady Revenge Tour? What Revenge Tour? Is he a punk rock band? Is winning one playoff game against the .500 Broncos at home considered “revenge” for losing in Denver to a completely different Broncos team six years ago? Is going 13-3 in the regular season with zero wins against teams with winning records considered revenge?

I love Patriots hype. It’s my favorite kind of hype in sports. People are still expecting the Patriots to win and people are still picking them to win it all. It reminds me of the Yankees from 2001-2008. Everyone still believed they were the Yankees, but as they got more and more separated from their 2000 championship, people began to pick against them. We still haven’t gotten to that point with the Patriots even though it’s been seven years since they won the Super Bowl.

The Patriots don’t have a defense though not many teams in the league do. But the Patriots have zero defense. We saw it all year long. The problem is we didn’t see it last week because the Broncos offense is so bad. So, there’s Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Spikes dancing around and going nuts, and Gillette Stadium rocking as the Patriots won their first playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship Game. And that’s what everyone’s last image of the Patriots currently is. It’s Tom Brady throwing for six touchdowns, their defensive line rocking Tim Tebow’s world and the most convincing of playoff wins with a 45-10 score. The Patriots didn’t prove anything last weekend other than that they can beat a first-year starting quarterback and the option at home in a playoff game coming off a bye. Congratulations!

But you know who has a defense? The Ravens. They have had the best defense in the league for the last 12 or so years, and if they had a real quarterback during that stretch they would have won at least one other Super Bowl since 2000.

You need a defense or a pass rush or something to win in the playoffs the way you need starting pitching in the playoffs. There’s a reason the Yankees didn’t win for eight years. You can’t let Jon Lieber and Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright and the Ghost of Roger Clemens start playoff games and think you’re going to win. And there’s a reason the Patriots haven’t won the Super Bowl since they turned their team from a defensive juggernaut into an offensive one.

Feb. 5, 2012 will be a rematch of Jan. 28, 2001.

Ravens 24, Patriots 21 (“We’re only going to score 21 points? Haha. OK. Is Plax playing defense?”)

Last Week: 2-2
Postseason: 5-3
Regular Season: 118-129-12

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Goodbye, Jorge Posada

The closest I have ever come to meeting Jorge Posada was on Oct. 17, 2004. How do I remember the date? Because it was the night the Yankees lost Game 4 of the ALCS. I

The closest I have ever come to meeting Jorge Posada was on Oct. 17, 2004. How do I remember the date? Because it was the night the Yankees lost Game 4 of the ALCS.

I was a freshman in college in Boston and my friend Scanlon and I were walking down the street from our Beacon Hill dorm recapping what had just unfolded in the ninth inning and then the 12th inning. The Yankees were staying at a hotel in Downtown Crossing right down the street from our dorm and we were standing on a corner recapping the events of the loss, knowing that it hurt, but that a 3-1 lead was insurmountable for the Red Sox.

The Red Sox tied Game 4 on a stolen base by Dave Roberts, but that night it was just another stolen base among the many other stolen bases in postseason history. It hadn’t become a play that haunts my life or a scene that’s enshrined as you walk down the hall to the Fenway Park press box. Dave Roberts was still just some 32-year-old veteran the Red Sox acquired at the deadline. Sure, he stole second and scored the tying run in an elimination game, but who cared? The Red Sox’ win in Game 4 was just prolonging the inevitable.

Scanlon and I stood on a street corner in Downtown Crossing while he smoked a cigarette realizing that the Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling lined up for Games 5 and 6 and possibly Derek Lowe on short rest in Game 7 if the series had to go that far. But I reassured a nervous Scanlon that the Yankees just had to win one game before the Red Sox won three.

As we stood on the corner and talked, I remember Scanlon’s face growing with shock as he looked over my shoulder and then at me before giving me one nod to let me know someone was behind me on the sidewalk we were partially blocking. I turned around and standing in front of us was Jorge Posada, who had just gotten out of a cab and was trying to walk down the middle of the sidewalk we were occupying. We moved aside and Posada walked past us without saying a word. He didn’t look mad, but he didn’t look happy. He looked serious and determined, but also worried. Or maybe I only remember him as looking worried since I now know what happened over the next three nights. At the time no one could have known what would happen in Games 5, 6 and 7, but that night after Game 4 with Jorge standing dead quiet right in front of us and waiting for us to move, it was almost like he knew the Yankees were on the ropes, the same way Joe Torre described the feeling of nowhere to turn in The Yankee Years.

I knew I would eventually have to write this. And I know I will eventually have to write about the end of Derek Jeter’s career and the end of Mariano Rivera’s career. (I’m holding out hope that they both find a way to play until they’re at least 65. It’s not that unrealistic for Rivera at this point.)

There aren’t any other franchises or fan bases that have ever had the chance to experience what the trio of Jeter, Rivera and Posada meant to Yankees fans for the last 20 years. The three of them first played together in the minors in 1992, and now two decades and five championships later, the first of the three says goodbye to Yankees fans. So, this is my chance to say goodbye to Jorge Posada.

I was eight years old when Jorge Posada played his first game as a Yankee, 17 Septembers ago. I will be 25 for the start of the 2012 season, the first season without Jorge Posada on the roster since I was in fourth grade.

“The only thing that matters is when the team wins.”

Jorge Posada was the pulse of the Yankees during the 15 of 17 years he played a significant amount of games. He wore the team’s recent result on his sleeve and in his postgame remarks. You didn’t need to see the game to know if the Yankees were riding a seven-game winning streak or if they had just dropped a series at home by watching Posada during the postgame or reading his quotes the following day. He wouldn’t give the vanilla and automated answers that Derek Jeter gives or sugarcoat things like Joe Torre did or Joe Girardi does. Posada was in many ways the voice of the fan, and if things were going bad, he let everyone know almost as if he were the most prominent sports radio caller.

That’s what I loved about Posada. He would tell it like is. A win was satisfying, but that feeling would only last until the next game. A loss was devastating and that feeling would last until the next win. Posada always carried the personality of the fans, or at least the fans that give the Yankees 162 days and nights of their attention and then October, and those that live and die with each win and each loss throughout the season.

“Growing up, I kind of liked the way he (Thurman Munson) played. I didn’t see much of him, but I remember him being a leader. I remember him really standing up for his teammates, and that really caught my eye.”

“If I see a problem (in the clubhouse), I say something right away. I don’t wait two or three days.”

Even though he was part of the Core Four, it always seemed like he took a backseat to No. 2 and No. 42 and Andy Pettitte.

Jeter’s the “Captain” and the face of the franchise, the homegrown wonder and the universal symbol of a winner.

Rivera is the greatest closer of all time, as close of a lock and guarantee that there is in baseball and the king of cool with no emotions and no signs of fading even in his 40s.

Pettitte was the homegrown lefty that won more postseason games than anyone else in the history of baseball, along with Rivera produced the most wins-saves combination for any starter-closer duo in history and was always there for Game 2 of any postseason series.

Posada was the starting catcher for all this time, loved by the fans, showered with “Hip, Hip” chants and the visual leader on the field and in the clubhouse. But outside of the tri-state area it always seemed like he didn’t receive the credit and attention that the other three garnered.

You could make the case that Posada was the most important Yankee of the dynasty since reaching the majors. Think about this: The Yankees have made the postseason every season since 1995 except 2008 when Posada’s season was cut short in July for shoulder surgery.

“I’m a lot older. I’m wiser. I know what to do now, and hopefully, I don’t get in (anybody’s) way.”

“Some of the guys don’t like to come out of the lineup. I’m one of them.”

Eventually people won’t talk or care about Posada’s 2011. Yes, it happened and there were some low points, but it did nothing to impact his legacy with the Yankees or change what he accomplished in his career with the team. His 2011 started great, got bad, got worse, got better, got worse, got better and finished great.

We watched Posada start the year with six home runs in his first 16 games. We watched him go 9-for-72 (.125) in April and 14-for-64 (.219) in May. On June 7 he was hitting .195 before going 22-for-63 (.349) from June 9 to July 5 to raise his average to .241. In August he lost his full-time designated hitter job and became part of a platoon before being benched indefinitely. He returned to the lineup on Aug. 13 against Tampa Bay after a week off and went 3-for-5 with a grand slam and six RBIs in the Yankees’ 9-2 win at the Stadium. He finished the year by clinching a postseason berth for the Yankees on Sept. 21 in the eighth inning of one of the most emotional moments in the early three-year history of the new Stadium (where he also hit the first home run in the new place in 2009.) He finished his last season by 6-for-14 with four walks in the ALDS, battling every pitch and grinding out every at-bat the way he had so many times before.

No one wants to come to the realization that their abilities are no longer what they once were, especially someone as proud as Posada, who will watch Jeter and Rivera continue to matter for the Yankees along with a new generation. It would be one thing if the Core Four all left at the same time, but for Posada (three years older than Jeter and two years younger than Rivera) to watch his teammates dating back to 1992 in the minors continue to play without him is a lot harder than any of us can imagine coping with.

I’m happy that Jorge Posada took the $117,458,500 or so he made in his career and decided that the only hat he would put on is a Yankees hat. It would have been disappointing to see him with the Indians or the Mariners or the A’s (I’m just naming teams and I’m not sure if any of these teams were actual options), and it would have hurt to see him return to the Stadium to a “Welcome back” ovation before hitting a straight A.J. Burnett fastball into the Yankees’ bullpen.

“I don’t want to be gone. I don’t want to be somewhere else. I consider myself a Yankee.”

I will remember Jorge Posada for his bloop double against the Red Sox in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS that tied it all at 5 and gave me the type of sports high that you only get a handful of times in your life, if you’re lucky.

I will remember Jorge Posada for laying the tag on Jeremy Giambi on the “Flip Play” to save the 2001 season and give Yankees fans an unbelievable memory.

I will remember Jorge Posada for the 293 times in the regular season that he walked to the mound to shake Mariano Rivera’s hand after a save. And I will remember him for taking that same walk and doing that same handshake following all the postseason saves as well.

I will remember Jorge Posada for the two emotional games in 2011. The grand slam game in his return to the lineup on Aug. 13, and the game-winning hit in the postseason clinching game on Sept. 21.

I will remember Jorge Posada for standing in the Fenway dugout during Game 3 of the 2003 ALCS and letting Pedro Martinez he wasn’t going to stand for his antics. I will also remember him for the bench-clearing brawl he started at the Stadium against the Blue Jays on Sept. 15, 2009.

I will remember Jorge Posada for the go-ahead solo home run he hit against the Twins in Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS just four pitches after Alex Rodriguez tied the game with a solo shot of his own as the Yankees tried to end the World Series drought.

I will remember Jorge Posada for his .429 batting average and .571 on-base percentage in the five-game loss to the Tigers when it seemed like he was the only guy who didn’t want to go home while those who have guaranteed contracts in 2012 and beyond failed in big spots.

I will remember Jorge Posada for being part of five championships, for building the team into what it is today and for being a major reason why I enjoy baseball and like the Yankees as much as I do today.

I’m going to miss, “Number 20 … Jorge Posada … Number 20.”

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Big Blue One Giant Step Away

If Tony Romo doesn’t overthrow Miles Austin on third-and-5 with a little over two minutes left in Dallas in Week 14, I’m not as a happy as I am right now or was all day

If Tony Romo doesn’t overthrow Miles Austin on third-and-5 with a little over two minutes left in Dallas in Week 14, I’m not as a happy as I am right now or was all day on Monday or on Sunday night. But because Tony Romo is who he is as a quarterback, I have that same, “Is this real life?” feeling I had during the Giants’ playoff run in 2007. And if this isn’t real life, I don’t want to wake up from it.

There’s this elephant in the room that no one in the tri-state wants to talk about (well at least I don’t), but I think at this point I have to address it. That elephant in the room is that the New York Football Giants are the hottest team in football and one win away from heading back to the Super Bowl. (I’m sure Patriots fans take exception to that after their team blew out a .500 team at home for their first playoff win since the 2007 AFC Championship, and maybe 49ers fans are upset about this claim after their team beat the anti-road warrior Saints, but I don’t care.)

I have tried to keep my Giants hype and confidence to a minimum (and I will revert back to that as the weekend approaches), but right now with the Giants in the NFC Championship Game and Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees at home, I don’t think I can hold back my feelings at least for today. After Sunday’s win, I’m counting down the seconds until 6:30 p.m. this Sunday. I have put sleep on the back burner in exchange for countless hours of watching Giants playoff highlights from 2007 on YouTube like it’s porn, and I’m paying the price now since I’m overtired and in serious need of those caffeine pills that Jessie Spano was using on Saved By The Bell. But I can draft off fumes and the emotional high of a Giants’ playoff win against the 15-1 Packers for at least a few more days as long as I am awake enough to occasionally check in on my friend Tim (the Packers fan from Friday’s column) with a text message or email to make sure he hasn’t resorted to spending his life in bed like Brian Wilson from the Beach Boys until the next postseason.

I think we’re at the same point we were at in 2007 in that the Giants are the NFC team that can win the Super Bowl. I don’t think Alex Smith and the 49ers can beat Tom Brady or beat the Ravens defense in a neutral setting, especially in a dome. And for the sake of humanity, I don’t think anyone outside of New England or the Greater Baltimore area wants to see the Patriots or Ravens win the Super Bowl. Like 2007, if the Cowboys or Packers had played the Patriots in Glendale, well that “16-0” banner at Gillette Stadium would instead be a championship banner and everyday of my life I would have to hear about the Perfect Patriots: The Greatest Team Ever. I don’t think anyone out there wants to hear about the 2011 Patriots: The Team That Revitalized The Dynasty or the 2011 Ravens: The Team That Let Ray Lewis Sail Off Into The Sun As A Champion. Don’t you non-49ers, non-Patriots, non-Ravens fan want the Giants to win it all? Or am I just wrongfully assuming that everyone else is in the sports world that isn’t a fan of those three teams is as much against the Patriots and Ravens as I am?

There will be plenty of time to talk about what this Sunday means, and yes, I will be calling on Coach Eric Taylor from Friday Night Lights again this week to help prepare for the 49ers. But there is still that win from this past Sunday against the “best” team in football that needs to be talked about, even if it was a blowout and even if it was only in the divisional round of the playoffs.

If the Giants end up finishing 2011 the way they finished 2007, then all the columns and books and special edition DVDs that will come from it will look at these three factors as important keys to another historical playoff run.

The Fumble/The Call/The Challenge
Have you ever muttered something to your girlfriend or to your mom out of anger and frustration that you didn’t mean and wish you could take it back? But fortunately for you they didn’t fully hear you or hope they heard you wrong and say, “What did you just say?” and you are given a second chance to review your initial remark and change it? You would have to be an idiot to have this chance to review your words and come back with the same answer. Well, unless you’re Ray Barone on Everybody Loves Raymond or NFL referee Bill Leavy.

I really don’t know how anyone could watch Greg Jennings fumble and think that it wasn’t a fumble. And I really don’t know how the guy whose job it is to watch this play in slow motion from every available angle can watch it and think it wasn’t a fumble. It’s hard for anyone to convince me that the officials in the game didn’t have heavy, heavy money on the Packers’ money line or that Roger Goodell wasn’t pacing in a dark room somewhere trying to figure out a way to get both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady to championship weekend. I have yet to hear someone say they agree with Leavy’s decision and even though the NFL’s statement didn’t say that Leavy was wrong, it implied it.

Leavy’s call was an embarrassment. It was an embarrassment to him and to all officials and to the league as a whole. Luckily for him the Giants won the game and won it convincingly otherwise he would probably be spending a lot of his time on Monster.com and none of his time in the tri-state area.

I know I shouldn’t be mad about this play because the Giants won by 17 points, but they could have lost the game because of this call. So yeah, I’m mad. When it happened I was casually drinking for the game, but after the call stood, I took my alcohol intake from Wayne Gretzky points per game in ‘1998-99 to his points per game from ’85-86. I’m mad because if a call like that can happen in a game like that, why can’t it happen again this weekend or in the Super Bowl?

The argument that the Hail Mary (we’ll get to that) and the bad call negate each other is a silly one. The Hail Mary was a designed play of genius executed by an elite quarterback and a premier receiver. The bad call was a blown call by an incompetent official whose time under the hood and then announcement of “After review, the call on the field stands” should be used as a Lasik eye surgery infomercial at 4 a.m. on the YES Network. I just need to remind myself that the Giants won. The Giants won!

Packers Choice To Defer/Onside Kick/Go For It On Fourth Down
Mike McCarthy isn’t someone I would want sit at a blackjack table. I just picture him hitting on 12 against the dealer’s 2 on one hand and then staying on 12 against the dealer’s 2 on the following hand. Play with some consistency, Mike. If you’re going to do something one way, then stick with it. Did you not watch the Falcons’ Mike Smith change his thought process and decision making on short yardage situations last week?

The Packers had the worst pass defense in the history of the NFL. That’s right, the history of the NFL. That’s not a long time or anything. But you know what the Packers do have? Maybe the best quarterback on the planet who just came off the best regular season in the history of the NFL and masked the defensive inefficiencies of his team all season.

So … The Packers win the coin toss and elect to defer. That means McCarthy, instead of putting Rodgers on the field with a chance to take an early lead and quickly put a dent in the Giants’ confidence on the road against the No. 1 team, he puts his historically bad defense on the field. (At the time I didn’t think about it that much and was actually upset about the decision because I love getting the ball in the second half.)

But then just six seconds into the SECOND QUARTER after tying the game, McCarthy elects for an onside kick that the Giants recover at the Green Bay 41. Umm, OK? You just tied the game, 15:06 into the game, and now you’re trying an onside kick? McCarthy might as well have had the Lambeau big screen show a personal message from him saying, “Hey Tom, I don’t trust my defense! I trust them so little I’m going to try an onside kick in a tied playoff game and give your All-Pro quarterback a short field to play with!” But just 15 minutes of football before that, he decided to put his defense on the field over this offense? Well, what’s it going to be, Mike?

(Here’s the problem with an onside kick, which I’m not breaking any ground about. If you recover it you’re a genius like Sean Payton in the Super Bowl. If you don’t recover it you’re an idiot. It’s like swinging away on 3-0. You better drive the ball into the gap or over the fence because if you pop it up like Mark Teixeira then you better enjoy answering questions from the media.

But it doesn’t stop there. On fourth-and-5 from the Giants’ 39 with over 13 minutes left to play and the Packers trailing by seven points (not 17 or 27, just seven), McCarthy has his offense go for it (yet another “Eff you” move to his defense). Rodgers is sacked for a loss of six yards, the Giants take over at their own 45 and go down the field and kick a field goal to make it a two-possession game.

Mike McCarthy coached the game and made decisions like you would expect Andy Reid or Norv Turner to in a playoff game. And I can’t thank him enough for it.

Flood Tip
“WHAT THE EFF ARE YOU DOING?!?!?!?!” That’s what I screamed (along with spilling Coors Lights everywhere and throwing Tostitos at the TV like Chris Kattan as Mr. Peepers on Saturday Night Live) when the Giants went to the line and Eli Manning was out there and not Lawrence Tynes. (Sure, Lawrence Tynes is as inconsistent as McCarthy’s playcalling and already missed one field goal), but with four seconds left on the clock and no timeouts, you’re only going to be able to run one play, and that one play is a Hail Mary. What’s the success rate of for a Hail Mary? That’s not rhetorical. I’m actually wondering. What is it?

But the crazy thing about the play is that when Eli let the ball go and the FOX camera panned to it soaring through the air to the corner of the end zone, Hakeem Nicks looked like the only guy in the end zone. (For any of you that saw the Steve Bartman 30 for 30 documentary, Catching Hell, on ESPN, it looked like the part where they remove everything from the scene of the ball in the air except for Moises Alou to see if he would have caught it. Nicks looked like Alou the entire time). The Packers secondary was behind Nicks and poorly positioned to knock the ball down or slap it down or even intercept it. And of course Nicks catches it and pins it to his helmet and facemask to create yet another 2007 comparisons from the David Tyree catch. (FYI: The last time the Giants scored important points in a divisional playoff game was the last time they were in the divisional playoffs in Dallas. That year turned out pretty well too. I’m just saying…)

The Packers didn’t deserve to win. They turned the ball over four times* (five if Bill Leavy is even semi decent at his job). Aaron Rodgers played like Joe Flacco and Jermichael Finley played like the Patriots’ Reche Caldwell in 2006. Without Leavy and Goodell and an unbelievable camera angle on that fumbled kick return, a 37-20 game would have been more like 50-3. And there’s a very real chance that without a phantom roughing the passer penalty and Leavy’s incompetence, the Packers are held touchdown-less at home in a playoff game after going 15-1 in the regular season.

On my Amtrak ride back from Boston on Monday morning, I had the New York Post sitting on the seat next to me and somewhere on the trip in Rhode Island a guy came up to me and said, “Are you done with that Post?” I said, “Yeah, you can have it.” He replied, “I have to read about my Giants.” A few days ago no one thought any Giants fan would want to read about the Giants on the Monday after Green Bay. Now it’s about wanting to read about the Giants on the Monday after San Francisco.

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2011 Feeling Like 2007 For Giants

Are the Giants the team that lost to Washington (twice), Seattle and Philadelphia? Or are they the team that’s currently the hottest in the league, getting healthy and peaking at the right time? Let’s figure it out with some help from Coach Eric Taylor.

Last Sunday was easy. Too easy. That isn’t the way Giants games are supposed to be, let alone playoff games. Or maybe they are supposed to be like that? You think they would be like that given their roster and its talent, and the coaching staff and its experience. But at this point I don’t know who the Giants are. I don’t think anyone really knows and that’s why this game on Sunday is so intriguing.

Are the Giants the team that lost to Rex Grossman (twice!), Charvaris Whiteson, Alex Smith (this one is a little more acceptable now) and Vince Young? Or are they the team that’s currently the hottest in the league, getting healthy and peaking at the right time?

This weekend and this game feels eerily similar to the third weekend in January in 2008, even if that game was for so much more than this one is. The difference between playing for a trip to go to the Super Bowl and a trip to play another game in either San Francisco (please) or New Orleans (please, no) is enormous. But I think this game has the feel of that Jan. 20, 2008 game because if the Giants can beat the 15-1, defending-champion Packers, and if they can win their fourth straight, then they can prove that they can beat anyone. (Except for maybe the Saints in the Superdome, but we’ll cross that bridge if and when we get to it.)

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think this is 2007, but I’m not certain that it’s not either. And how can anyone definitively say it isn’t? No one thought 2007 was 2007 when it was happening. You don’t see those types of things happening and you can’t predict that they will while they are. All you can do is sit back and let them unfold and reflect on them later. All you can do is hope that 2011 is 2007.

The Giants are playing their biggest game since Super Bowl XLII on Sunday. I don’t know what Tom Coughlin will tell his team, and I don’t know what I would tell them if I were in his position. I don’t think you need to tell this Giants team anything at this point or to remind them of what’s at stake. But if I had to, maybe I would steal a Coach Eric Taylor quote from Friday Night Lights in hopes that no one on the team watched the show or remembers lines from it. Actually, that’s exactly what I would do. There has never been a better fictitious leader or motivator than Coach Taylor (I still don’t want to believe that Kyle Chandler isn’t a high school football in Texas), so let’s dip into his long list of perfect quotes to look at this Giants-Packers playoff game and what it means.

“What the hell? You want a hug or something? Get out of here.”

This just seems like something Tom Coughlin would say.

“6 a.m. sharp means a quarter to six.”

Again, just something Tom Coughlin would say. I think he really has said this. OK, let’s get serious.

“A few will never give up on you. When you go back out on the field, those are the people I want in your minds. Those are the people I want in your hearts.”

Nearly everyone gave up on the season with five minutes and 41 seconds left in Dallas. I had started to let the end-of-season shock take over, but I kept the TV on the game for that one-in-a-million Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson chance that maybe, just maybe the Giants could somehow pull out the kind of dagger that they have been handed so many times in the nearly four seasons since XLII.

Last week I said

This season had everything Giants fans have come to expect from their team, and why I constantly refer to Matt Damon’s character Mike McDermott’s explanation of No-Limit ‘Hold Em in Rounders as the perfect description of what Giants fans endure.

“There’s no other game in which fortunes can change so much from hand to hand. A brilliant player can get a strong hand cracked, go on tilt … and lose his mind along with every single chip in front of him … Some people, pros even, won’t play No-Limit. They can’t handle the swings.”

You have to be a certain type of sports fan to deal with the Giants and the way they play differently each Sunday as if the previous Sunday never happened. I’m not saying you have to be insane or our of your mind the way you have to be to attach your life to the Jets, but you can’t help which team you are raised as a fan of.

“Every man at some point in his life is going to lose a battle. He is going to fight, and he is going to lose. But what makes him a man is at the midst of that battle, he does not lose himself. This game is not over, this battle is not over.”

The Giants might lose on Sunday. Las Vegas is banking on the idea that they will lose. They are 7.5-point underdogs (opened at 9) and are 3-to-1 to win the game. The most important thing about this game is that the Giants can’t lose confidence or stray away from their game plan because of what the Packers can do. The Packers are going to score. They might score in bunches. They might receive the opening kickoff and march down the field and put up seven in a few minutes. I’m prepared for them to do so. The Giants have to understand that the shutout they pitched last weekend against the Falcons isn’t going to happen this weekend. They need to withstand the Packers’ inevitable scoring and pressure and make sure that they can match the Packers’ offense punch for punch and contain the fire rather than pour gasoline on it like Rafael Soriano and Boone Logan would do for an opposing rally.

There isn’t that much of a difference between the two offenses. They boast two of the top tier quarterbacks and the two best receiving corps in the league. But the key for the Giants is to not get off to a slow start. If you’re down two or three possessions in Green Bay, you might as well catch the early flight home.

This is how the Giants opened their game against the Falcons: Punt. Punt. Punt. Safety.

They were able to get away with it because the Falcons were worse, and the Giants defense was dominant. But you’re not going to get away with opening the game in Green Bay with zero offense, a series of punts and giving away points.

(Also, Tom Coughlin if you’re reading this and if you have the chance: DEFER! TAKE THE BALL IN THE SECOND HALF!)

“We’re not playing this game in the stands, understand? Forget about that crap. This game happens on the field.”

The Lambeau crowd is going to be insane on Sunday (as it always is). They have the best team in football playing at home and trying to protect the Lombardi Trophy. And with Ryan Braun’s bizarre failed PED test, the fact that Prince Fielder won’t be playing in Milwaukee again unless his team has the Brewers on the schedule and the fact that the Bucks are still the Bucks, the Packers are Wisconsin. Like my friend Tim, a Packers fan, told me this week, a loss to the Giants will be “high on the devastation” scale.

Very few people are giving the Giants a chance that aren’t form the tri-state area, and rightfully so. The Giants are the 9-7 team and the No. 6 seed. The Packers were the best team in the league all season and have lost ONCE since Nov. 28, 2010 with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback. But I’m glad that the Giants’ recent play isn’t changing the minds of many people. We don’t need the majority of people believing in the Giants and pumping their tires like Roberto Luongo would do for Tim Thomas.

Like I have said a million times, the Giants don’t perform well with expectations. As long as they can fly under the radar and go about their business without many people taking significant notice or hyping them to win, they are fine. The second they are told that they’re good, it all changes.

“Right here, right now, god has placed you to do what you do best. Go all the way.”

It’s crazy to think of what had to happen for the Giants to get to where they are and to still be playing. If Miles Austin doesn’t lose the ball in the Cowboys Stadium lights or if Tony Romo doesn’t just overthrow him (or whatever happened on that play), the Giants aren’t playing this weekend. If Tom Coughlin doesn’t call timeout to ice Dan Bailey and then Jason Pierre-Paul doesn’t block the field goal, the Giants and Cowboys go to overtime and the Giants possibly lose. Go back even further and think about the drive against the Patriots or the Victor Cruz fumble against the Cardinals or the comeback against the Dolphins or the Corey Webster interception against the Bills.

It took an insane series of events over 17 weeks for the Giants to finish at 9-7 and win the division and then win a home playoff game against the Falcons. Things like this happen for teams that go on improbable runs. It happened for the Packers last year. If the Giants don’t blow a 21-point lead in the final 7:18 and DeSean Jackson doesn’t return that punt as time expires, the Packers are eliminated from the playoffs, and there’s no Super Bowl and Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback with no playoff wins, but not in the same conversation as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

“Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.”

I said last Friday that “the Giants are playing with house money from here on out” and they are. I don’t expect them to win on Sunday, but that’s only because I know how they perform with expectations and I’m trying to keep things quiet over here.

The Giants weren’t supposed to have a winning record or win their division. They weren’t supposed to have a home playoff game. They weren’t supposed to win that home playoff game against the more “consistent” Falcons. They weren’t supposed to be playing the Packers in the second round of the playoffs for a chance to extend the season another week, and no one would thought they would be with five minutes and 41 seconds left in Dallas. But here they are. Still alive and still playing. And now just one more January win in Green Bay from making 2011 feel even more like 2007.

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NFL Divisional Round Picks

Last Sunday feels like it was three years ago. And this Saturday feels like it’s four years from now. That’s how you know it’s the NFL playoffs. The five days between playoff games for the

Last Sunday feels like it was three years ago. And this Saturday feels like it’s four years from now. That’s how you know it’s the NFL playoffs.

The five days between playoff games for the first two rounds feel like forever. And there’s only so much hype and so many predictions and guarantees you can read about to fill the void left by five days without football. Thankfully for the 2011 playoffs we have the New York Jets.

Even though the Jets won’t play a game that counts for another 33 weeks, Rex Ryan’s team of mixed personalities is the talk of the town after yet another Super Bowl “guarantee” ended up being exactly what Chris Farley described it as when he made his first sale in Tommy Boy. And despite the New York Football Giants (the Kings of the City) playing in the divisional round this weekend against the defending champions (the Kings of the NFL), the focal point in New York has been on the Jets’ collapse and the aftermath from it.

In the last week we have found out that the Jets’ captain quit on the team, that it will be hard for anyone to believe anything Mike Tannenbaum says again and most recently that anonymous players on the Jets don’t want Mark Sanchez to be the starting quarterback in 2012. It’s too bad that those who like the Jets and those who like the Red Sox are from cities that hate each because they have so much in common and could be the best of friends. How much does the Jets’ January feel like the Red Sox’ September? A lot. And how much do I love every minute of it? A lot.

But let’s not forget that there is actual football to still be played. There’s real games where teams wear jerseys and play for championships, and don’t just send out press releases late at night to fire their offensive coordinator. And even though it’s fun to watch Jerry Jones try to come up with an apology he hasn’t used before for his Cowboys’ performance or to watch Rex Ryan and Mr. T (Hey, Mr. T is one smart S.O.B. for signing Santonio Holmes!) fumble for the right words to try and make any sort of a positive out of an 8-8 season, the focus should be around teams with games left on their schedule.

As for my picks, I was one win away from opening the playoffs with a perfect record in the wild-card week, but I put my faith in Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals. How did I let myself do this? I have a feeling I will be asking myself the same question next week when you find out who I picked in the 49ers-Saints game.

Divisional round … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints are two very different teams. You have the New Orleans Saints and you have the Road Saints. The New Orleans Saints are undefeated in the regular season and the playoffs at 9-0 with an average of 41.6 points for and 19.0 points against. The Road Saints are 5-3 with an average of 27.3 points for and 24.5 points against (and losses to Tampa Bay and St. Louis).

This game is the trickiest of them all because most people are thinking about the matchup of Alex Smith vs. Drew Brees, which is about as equal of a matchup as Boone Logan vs. Josh Hamilton. Alex Smith might be the worst quarterback remaining in the field (a field that includes Joe Flacco and T.J. Yates) while Drew Brees might be the best quarterback remaining in the field (depending on who you ask and if the person you’re asking is from Green Bay or New England).

But the Road Saints in San Francisco where the field is slow and outdoors changes everything.

Denver +13.5 over NEW ENGLAND
If you have had the luxury of listening to Boston sports radio or reading anything to come out of Boston this week, then you have been able to feel the confidence oozing from Back Bay to Beacon Hill. New England sports fan believe there’s absolutely no chance that they will lose to the Broncos on Saturday night. No chance at all.

I remember one year ago this weekend when Patriots fans laughed at facing the Jets in the divisional round. My friend, Mike Hurley from NESN.com (I guess he’s a “friend”), wrote, “The Jets don’t have a chance.” I’m just glad things like this don’t disappear on the Internet.

There was also this time two years ago when the Patriots hosted the Ravens in the wild-card round and were expected to win. Then Tom Brady threw three picks (OK, there were some tip jobs) and lost a fumble and the Ravens scored 20 points off turnovers and sent Tom Brady home.

Patriots fans currently have “fake” confidence. I know what it feels like. I had it during the ALDS in 2005, 2006 and 2007, when the Yankees bowed out of the postseason after five games once and four games twice. I didn’t regain my confidence in the Yankees until they advanced to the ALCS in 2009, and prior to that it seemed like their most recent championship was the one in 1978 rather than the one in 2000.

And if the Patriots lose on Saturday night, their last three playoff losses will all have come in their first game of the postseason, at home and against Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. I’m not really sure how you sleep after that. It’s like losing an elimination game to Jeremy Bonderman or Paul Byrd. But trust me, eventually you get over it.

The Patriots have a chance to lose on Saturday. The same way they had a chance to lose to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII and the Ravens in the 2009 playoffs and the Jets (even though no one gave them a chance to lose).

The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty started with Champ Bailey intercepting Tom Brady in the end zone in Denver on Jan. 14, 2006. Exactly six years later, the Patriots and Broncos meet again. If we’re lucky, Tim Tebow will be playing in the AFC Championship Game a week from Sunday and Tom Brady will be talking about the latest version of “the worst loss of his career.”

BALTIMORE -7.5 over Houston
This game is the only game in which I don’t think the underdog has a chance to win even though most would say it’s probably the best chance for an underdog to win. But I should know better than to say that a team doesn’t have a chance to win.

This game is all about running offenses and running defenses because Joe Flacco and T.J. Yates won’t be allowed to ruin the game the way you wouldn’t let you five-year-old mow the lawn. Sure, you might let them ride on the sit-down mower with you and pretend like they are steering and controlling the machine, but in reality you’re doing all the work to avoid a disaster.

I was going to take the Ravens even before I remembered that the Texans lost in Baltimore in Week 6 by 15 points (29-14), and that was with Matt Schaub! Now they return to Baltimore with T.J. Yates. Doesn’t 7.5 points feel like not enough?

New York Giants +7.5 over GREEN BAY
I don’t like the hype around the Giants right now. I don’t like it one bit. It’s growing with each day leading up to Sunday, and everyone I have talked with in the city feels confident about the Giants. And it doesn’t help that Jason Pierre-Paul is saying things like, “We’re going to win. One hundred percent we’re going to win … because we’re the best.”

I’m aware that the Giants are healthy for the first time, riding a three-game winning streak and getting hot and peaking at the right moment just like they did in the 2007 playoffs. I’m also aware that in a “Hey, We Can Get Our Backs Off From Up Against The Wall” game, the Giants were embarrassed at home by the Redskins. And that was just four weeks ago.

I don’t expect the Giants to win on Sunday (more on this tomorrow on WFAN.com with some help from Friday Night Lights). I want them to, but I don’t know if they can or will. I know that the Giants are the last team the Packers wanted to face in their first postseason, but I don’t know if it will matter. I just wanted the Giants to have a chance to get to this game; to extend the season as long as possible and to finally realize their potential and play to their ability; to get back to Green Bay like the third Sunday of January in 2008 and once again shock the world. So far they have given us most of that these last three weeks. Now, about the “shock the world” part…

Last Week: 3-1
Regular Season: 118-129-12

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