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Author: Neil Keefe

BlogsGiantsNFL

NFL Week 9 Picks

The Giants have a bye week in Week 9, but I don’t get one in the road to respectability this picks season.

The Giants are 1-0 in their last three Sundays thanks to Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football and that record will stay intact through this Sunday as well with the Giants’ bye this week. What I’m trying to say is that this Sunday will mark a month of non-depressing Sundays thanks to the Giants.

And like the New York Football Giants season, which my picks season has mirrored this season, I have recorded two over-.500 weeks the last two weeks for my first two over-.500 weeks of the season. But unlike the Giants, I don’t get a bye to regroup and the fight back to respectability (if it’s even obtainable) continues in Week 9.

Week 9 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MIAMI +2.5 over Cincinnati
This week is an absolute gauntlet for lines with five of the 13 games featuring lines of 7 or more. But even with so much uncertainty across the league, I can always count in the Thursday Night Football pick to give me a win since I’m not 6-2 on the year on the much-hated Thursday game.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Atlanta
The Panthers are a frustrating team, but their only home loss came in Week 1 against the Seahawks, who might be the best team in the league, and they have won their other three home games by 25, 15 and 18. So when it comes to the banged-up, underachieving 2-5 Falcons, it’s the right decision, even if it’s an NFC South matchup.

DALLAS -10 over Minnesota
When the ESPN ticker said, “Christian Ponder will start for the second straight week,” I knew all I needed to know.

New Orleans -7 over NEW YORK JETS
A tricky, tricky game because the Jets are a different team in MetLife (3-1) than they are on the road (1-3) and the Saints are a different team anywhere outside the Superdome. But after what I saw from the Jets last week in Cincinnati, I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Geno Smith to cover against Drew Brees since I’m not sure I feel confident the Jets can even score a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +3 over Tennessee
It feels like the Titans had a double bye week last week since it feels like forever since I had to pick one of their games. After starting the season 3-1, they have lost three games in a row and their losing streak started when Jake Locker was injured. But don’t let the Titans semi-respectable 3-4 record fool you since their three wins have come against the Steelers, Chargers and Jets.

Kansas City -4.5 over BUFFALO
I really, really, really wanted to take the Bills here and pick for Thad Lewis, but now that he’s out and Jeff Tuel, possibly the worst quarterback of the 2013 season is in, I’m not sure how I can take the Bills to keep it close in Buffalo against the last undefeated team.

WASHINGTON 0 over San Diego
The Giants are 2-6 and still in the NFC East race. The Redskins are 2-5 and in even better shape in the NFC East race. Unfortunately, I think the Redskins will be there in the end. Not “be there” as in win the division, but I think they will be fighting right up until the holiday season with the Giants and Cowboys while the Eagles finish up another fourth-place season.

OAKLAND -2.5 over Philadelphia
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or an Eagles fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -16 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is the new Jacksonville in that I would take pretty much any elite team to cover any spread against them. Sixteen points? That’s it?

CLEVELAND +2.5 over Baltimore
Is Jason Campbell the answer at quarterback for the Browns? Did I really just ask that question in 2013?

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Pittsburgh
The Patriots aren’t what we have known the Patriots to be since the 2000s, but that doesn’t matter against the 2013 Steelers at Gillette Stadium.

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
This game badly screams, “TRAP! TRAP! TRAP!” but I’m going to do it anyway.

GREEN BAY -11 over Chicago
No Jay Cutler? This line seems low.

Last week: 7-6-0
Season: 51-65-4

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BlogsRangers

The Last-Place Rangers

The Rangers were shut out again on Monday and with each loss, the chances of Henrik Lundqvist’s departure increase.

On Monday night, for the grand opening of the latest and last renovation of Madison Square Garden, the 2013-14 Rangers were introduced and took the ice one by one by forming a circle around center ice rather than a traditional line across their blue line. This decision was likely done to symbolize the team aspect with all the players facing each other in a circle under the scoreboard that’s a decade overdue, but it made me think that it gave Henrik Lundqvist a better look at the faces of his teammates and a chance for him to look around and wonder which, if any, of his teammates was going to score that night. None of them would score and the Rangers would lose their home opener 2-0 to the Canadiens.

Monday night’s 2-0 loss was the third time the Rangers have been shut out this season as they have been held to three goals or less in every game and have scored just three goals in their last five games. They have scored a league-worst 15 goals scored and are proud owners of a league-worst -2.00 goals per game differential. They were embarrassed by the Devils and scored one goal on a bad-angle shot against the Flyers. They have played for a possible 20 points in the standings and have earned six. After 10 games it’s clear that the 2013-14 Rangers are no different than the 2012-13 Rangers, who were no different than the 2011-12 Rangers, who were no different than the 2010-11 Rangers, who were no different than the 2009-10 Rangers, who were no different than the 2008-09 Rangers.

With each loss and especially each shutout, comes more of a reason for Lundqvist to leave the Rangers after Game 82 for a better team and a better chance at winning it all. Why wouldn’t he? Nothing has changed on the ice in front of him for the last five years and it’s hard to fault him for leaving the door open to play the second half of his career somewhere where winning 1-0 isn’t the game plan every night. Thinking back to Lundqvist’s introduction you can’t help but wonder if it would be the last time he would be introduced on an Opening Night at Madison Square Garden as a member of the home team.

Without Rick Nash since the first two minutes and 42 seconds of the third game of the season on Oct. 8 and without Callahan since Oct. 16 and without Henrik Lundqvist for two games because of injury and also the game that forced Martin Biron into retirement, it’s easy to see why the Rangers are in last place in the Met and why only the Sabres, who started their fire sale on Sunday, are the only team with less points in the NHL. But just 26 days into the season, fans are wishing John Tortorella was still behind the bench rather than Alain Vigneault and longing for the days of skill players being sacrificed as shot-blocking bodies in his heavy defense system.

Meanwhile in Columbus, Marian Gaborik has five goals and five assists in 10 games for the Blue Jackets, which means he has more goals than Derick Brassard, Derek Stepan, Brian Boyle, Benoit Pouliot, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, Derek Dorsett, Dominic Moore, J.T. Miller and Taylor Pyatt combined. But hey, it was definitely worth trading a three-time 40-goal scorer because the head coach didn’t like him because 40-goal scorers are really easy to find! I’m much happier with Derick Brassard, Derek Dorsett, John Moore and a sixth-round draft pick than I would have been with Gaborik. (No, I’m not over the Gaborik trade yet and likely will never be just as I’m still not over the non-Rick Nash trade from February 2012.)

I’m not ready to start frequently “Ladies and gentlemen-ing” Alain Vigneault because that’s that the gateway drug to turning your back on someone and once you cross that bridge it’s hard to go back. I’m not ready to do so yet because Vigneault is just 10 games into his Rangers tenure and hasn’t been able to implement his proven system from Vancouver because he hasn’t had his real, true roster. The 3-7-0 start isn’t all on Vigneault given injuries to star players and a roster full of underachievers, but there are a few things that could and should change. Scratch that. They have to change.

Let Kreider Play
If Chris Kreider is a former first-round pick that the organization believes was and is their best prospect and someone they weren’t willing to trade for Nash in the team’s best season since 1996-97 then he needs to be on the Rangers for good. (Not “for good” like forever, but “for good” until they can properly evaluate who he is.) The Rangers need to stop Joba Chamberlain-ing Kreider’s role and sending back and forth between New York and Hartford and settle on a decision that they are either going to let him develop in the NHL with a set plan.

Kreider is now 22, which doesn’t seem that old, but he has two career regular-season goals in 26 games and 15 of the 18 players drafted ahead of him in 2009 have had better production. If he was drafted in the first round for a reason and hyped as much as he was and sold to us that he is a top-six forward in the league and a potential dynamic scorer then let him try to be that. There aren’t any better options right now.

Use Brian Boyle Properly
For all of the negativity I use toward Brian Boyle, I will admit that he could serve a purpose on this team. That purpose is being a fourth-liner with some penalty-killing time. Apparently AV is on the same page that John Tortorella was with Boyle and shares the same beliefs on Boyle that Mike Babcock shares when the Red Wings coach said, “Boyle always impresses me … He came to New York and became a good player,” which was the ultimate “Is this real life?” moment. (Maybe Babcock is interested in making a move?!)

Once upon a time, Brian Boyle was a scorer. That time was his junior and senior seasons at Boston College and his first full pro season with the Manchester Monarchs. He has 13 goals over the last two-plus seasons and 130 games despite ample playing time, but even with that alarming lack of scoring, he is still given ample playing time and this season he is being used on the second power-play unit, as a penalty-kill specialist and in crucial situations like the final minutes of games. I would be willing to accept Brian Boyle as a Ranger if he were used correctly, and while it’s not his fault that AV believes in him the way John Tortorella did and not the way the Los Angeles Kings didn’t, something needs to change.

Sure, you could cite Boyle’s 21-goal season in 2010-11 as a reason to believe that he could be a reliable secondary scoring option, but he’s going to be 29 in December and he is what he is at this point. Career backup catcher John Flaherty had a 27-game hit streak in 1996 and finished the year at .284, but you didn’t see teams other than the then-Devil Rays give him a chance to be a starter, did you?

Fix the Goof Troop
I have had several variations of the Goof Troop when it comes to the Yankees, including the combination of Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson during the 2012 playoffs, and it’s time for the first edition of the Rangers Goof Troop featuring Michael Del Zotto and Dan Girardi.

Del Zotto is just 23 years old, but can we all agree that we know what Del Zotto is and just accept it? Del Zotto is supposed to be an offensive defenseman, a potential power-play leader and real scoring threat, but he’s none of these things. Del Zotto is possibly the biggest liability in his own zone for any defenseman in the entire league and with no points in eight games, it’s hard to defend his lack of defense by citing his offense as a reason to keep him in the lineup when there hasn’t been any offense. And it’s Del Zotto’s fellow net-missing blueliner, Dan Girardi, that is equally as frustrating to watch.

Like I said at the start of The Rangers’ West Coast Embarrassment Tour, it’s a good thing some people are worried about the Rangers giving Lundqvist too much money and that the team will have its hands tied and be unable to re-sign Girardi. Why would you ever want to possibly overpay for your franchise goalie and best player when you have a so-called defensive defenseman with no points and a minus-7 rating through the first 12 percent of the season?

Girardi’s Sunday Skate-look in his own zone and apparent lack of responsibility around the net has become a consistent problem and one that leaves me wondering how the Rangers could ever think about re-signing him after the season and extending his time with the team. The Rangers are committed to Girardi and Del Zotto as one-third of their top six defensemen and it’s Vigneault’s job to figure out how to get the most out of them, even if there isn’t a lot to get.

It’s certainly early, but the Rangers aren’t exactly doing a good job of treading water until they can get healthy and dress a team that can score a goal. Right now, the Rangers are a bad team and on Tuesday night on the Long Island, the New York team with a real future and Henrik Lundqvist’s possible future team will want to show the Rangers just how bad they are.

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BlogsGiantsNFL

NFL Week 8 Picks

The Giants won their first game of the season and I had my first over-.500 week of the picks season as my picks season continues to go as the Giants’ season goes.

A win is a win. That’s what I have been telling myself and my girlfriend since the Giants’ 27-7 “win” over her Vikings on Monday Night Football. I say “win” because I’m not sure beating Josh Freeman and his 33 incompletions should really be considered a win. But a win is a win and the Giants desperately needed one (one as is one win this season) and if they have

I’m not sure how to act in a lost season that goes missing in September with three months still to be played. I’m used to watching the season unravel in November or December with a second-half collapse ruining what once looked to be a division title and possible first-round bye. I know how to deal with that type of season. I don’t know how to deal with this.

All Monday’s win did was take the Giants out of the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes and give Antrel Rolle another week of “winning out” proclamations to spew on sports radio. It didn’t give any more realistic hope to an epic comeback and possible playoff berth and a win this weekend in Philadelphia won’t do that either. Win this weekend and then beat the Raiders and then the Packers and then the Cowboys and we’ll talk.

***

As the Giants season goes, my picks season goes. And with the Giants’ first win of the year on Monday Night Football, I enjoyed my first over-.500 week of the season at 9-6. Thank you, thank you.But with a 9-6 week comes expectations and if my picks season is going to really, truly mirror the Giants season then expectations are the last thing I need just when it looks like I might be ready to turn around the first half debacle.

Week 8 … let’s go

(Home team in caps)

Carolina -7 over TAMPA BAY
If I only had to pick the Thursday games, I would be having a great year at 5-2. But aside from that …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -16.5 over JACKSONVILLE
After earning some respect in their loss to the Broncos and getting Vegas to lower their next line to just — at home against the chargers, Vegas isn’t willing to make things so easy for the Jaguars anymore. The Jaguars have now scored in single digits in four of seven games and have lost by an average of 31.7-10.9.

Dallas +3 over DETROIT
Let’s pretend for a second that the Giants could eventually have a chance at playing in the postseason. (Yes, I know how ridiculous that sounds.) Now if the Giants are going to get there, the Cowboys and Eagles would have to go into the tank and that means losing games like this one on the road in Detroit. But for as much as I despise the Cowboys and I greatly despise the Cowboys, this year feels like their year. Not “their year” in the sense that it’s “their year to win a championship.” No, no, no. I mean “their year” as in “their year to win the division and reach the postseason.” And with the Cowboys in 2013, that’s all their goal should really be.

New York Giants +5 over PHILADELPHIA
It shouldn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles or Nick Vick or Matt Barkley, the Giants should be able to keep this game close.

KANSAS CITY -7.5 over Cleveland
You never want to pick for the team whose quarterback situation is such a mess that they have Jeff Garcia saying he is willing to try out to be their quarterback if they are willing to let him, considering Garcia is 43 and last threw a pass in the NFL in 2008. I think I’ll take my chances with the undefeated 7-0 team against that team.

NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over Buffalo
My apologies to Thad Lewis who I greatly underestimated last week as he and the Bills went to Miami and upset the Dolphins. (OK, maybe it was more like the Dolphins offense and the Bills defense that were responsible for the upset, but Thad still gets the W for his resume.) The problem with trusting Thaddeus now is that he isn’t going to South Beach to face a Dolphins team that last won on Sept. 22. He’s going to the place where all quarterbacks (even great ones) and all opponents (even worthy ones) go to lose and lose big.

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 12 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

So what’s the best medicine for the Saints to get back in the win column after losing in Foxboro on an improbalby last-minute touchdown coming off their bye? How about the Bills in the Superdome?

Miami +7 over NEW ENGLAND
Playing in Foxboro against the Patriots isn’t what it used to be in terms of losing, but that has more to do with what the Patriots offense has become and not what their defense is. Sure, teams still have a hard time winning game at Gillette, but we’re not picking winners here and no one says the Dolphins are going to win, but covering a touchdown on the road against a division rival?

Aside from their 20-point blowout of the Buccaneers, who might very well be worse than the Jaguars, here are the margins of victory in the Patriots’ other six games: 2, 3, 7, 7, 3 and 3. (The Patriots went 4-2 in those six games.)

New York Jets +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Giants are 1-6. The Jets are 4-3 and with a win and a Patriots loss, they will be tied atop the AFC East with the Patriots at 5-3. Back in 2010, I feared that the Jets might take over the New York football landscape after they went to back-to-back AFC Championship Games while the Giants missed out on the playoffs in both 2009 and 2010. But then the Jets lost to the Giants on Christmas Eve in 2011 and the Giants beat the Cowboys the following week for the division title and then ran the table in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl and the landscape never changed. It’s not going to change in 2013, but I don’t like there even being a possibility that it could.

Pittsburgh -3 over OAKLAND
There are very few teams I would trust picking the Steelers to cover three points on the road against. The Raiders happen to be one of them. And with the Steelers riding back-to-back wins, a win in Oakland and a 3-4 record will keep their postseason hopes alive with New England, Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati and Green Bay still on the schedule.

Washington +13 over DENVER
Do I trust the Redskins on the road with their defense against the Broncos offense? Of course not! But I think I have been trusting the Broncos a little too much lately and it’s time to realize that the Broncos defense just isn’t good and certainly isn’t a championship-caliber defense. And it seems like RGIII has put an end to his early-season sophomore slump.

ARIZONA -2 over Atlanta
I think Kurt Warner was the Cardinals quarterback the last time I picked the Cardinals. But after getting burned by Arizona seemingly every week since then, it’s time I turn my back on the Falcons. When I first looked at this line I couldn’t believe the Cardinals were giving points and it seemed like taking the Falcons was easy, actually too easy, and whenever you’re presented with a game like this and a line like this, you get the feeling that something is off. And oh yeah …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay -9.5 over MINNESOTA
Josh Freeman was historically bad on Monday Night Football after Leslie Frazier did the opposite of what any coach in any sport tries to do by putting their players in the best position to succeed. Frazier started Freeman and stuck with him despite the obvious lack of chemistry between the quarterback and his receivers. This week Frazier isn’t starting Freeman, but is instead going back to Christian Ponder, who got the Vikings off to an 0-3 start to the year. Ponder wasn’t good enough to start in Week 7 over a guy that had been a Viking for two weeks and had never taken a snap as Vikings quarterback, but now he’s good enough to start against the Packers? I know the first game everyone will be putting in their teasers this week.

Seattle -11.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks are trying to win the Super Bowl this year and the Rams reached out to Brett Favre about returning to the NFL to play quarterback for them.

Last week: 9-6-0
Season: 44-59-4

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Podcasts

Podcast: John Jastremski

John Jastremski of WFAN joins me to talk about the Yankees’ potential offseason plans while the Red Sox are busy playing in the World Series.

The Yankees’ offseason is now in its fourth week, but Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte’s retirement and the idea that the Yankees are only returning 40 percent of their starting rotation next season aren’t the worst things to happen to the Yankees since their season ended on Sept. 29. The worst thing would be the Red Sox in the World Series and going for their third championship since 2004 while there hasn’t been baseball in the Bronx in a month.

John Jastremski of WFAN and the JJ After Dark overnight show joined me to talk about the Yankees’ potential offseason plans, how devastating and depressing it is to have the Red Sox in the World Series and we even touched on the New York football teams and let him get in a few words on his Dolphins, who have lost three games in a row.

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Podcasts

Podcast: Mike Hurley

Mike Hurley of CBS Boston joined me to talk about the World Series and the controversial call at the end of the Jets-Patriots game.

The Red Sox are in the World Series and no, I’m not happy. I blame myself since I did zero podcasts with Mike Hurley of CBS Boston this season and since I started doing podcasts after the 2010 Winter Meetings, the Red Sox have been a disaster. But with the Cardinals now the last team standing between the Red Sox and a third championship since 2004, I was able to get Hurley for one last attempt to save the season and the Fall Classic.

Hurley joined me to talk about the disgusting notion of the Red Sox playing in the World Series, how this Red Sox team compares to the 2004 and 2007 teams in terms of fan attachment and we even touched on the controversial call at the end of the Jets-Patriots game and why the Patriots decided to not give Tom Brady any help this season.

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