1. The Yankees are the best team in the American League, but they didn’t play like the best team in the AL from mid-June to mid-August and it cost them the division. During those two months, they lost series to the Angels, Reds, Mets, Marlins, Rangers and Astros and went 1-6 against the Red Sox and 1-6 against the Blue Jays. They kept DJ LeMahieu on the roster and played him at second base over Jazz Chisholm, let Devin Williams blow games at a 2024 Clay Holmes-like pace and allowed Anthony Volpe to play every day as arguably the worst everyday hitter in the league for a third straight year. That’s why the Yankees lost the division, not because of anything that happened on Sunday.

The Yankees have no one to blame other than themselves for having to play a best-of-3 against their worst possible matchup this week. Not the Rays, who sat their three best hitters in Game 162 on Sunday with the Yankees needing them to win to win the division. Not the Tigers, who sat their best players as well with the Yankees needing them to win to avoid the Red Sox. The Yankees did this to themselves when they started the season 2-8 against the Red Sox and when they got swept in a four-game series in Toronto during the first week of July.

Even though the Blue Jays kept the Yankees in the division race until the last game of the season, and even though the Tigers had a chance to win the second wild card over the Red Sox, in the end, it’s Yankees-Red Sox, the scenario we all figured it would be for the last nearly three months. The worst-case scenario.

2. If the Yankees had to play the Red Sox in a best-of-5, my confidence would be much greater than it is now. If they had to play them in a best-of-7, my confidence would be through the roof. But in a three-game series? I don’t know if there is any measurable confidence in this situation.

That’s not because the Yankees are an inferior team. Quite the opposite. When they’re not beating themselves, the Yankees are a much better team than the Red Sox, especially with Rafael Devers in San Francisco and Roman Anthony on the injured list. The difference is the Red Sox have Garrett Crochet and the Yankees don’t.

3. Crochet made four starts this season against the Yankees and the Red Sox won all of them. In 27 1/3 innings against the Yankees, Crochet allowed just four walks to 39 strikeouts. The Yankees hit .200/.231/.370 against him for a .601 OPS. J.C. Escarra had a .629 OPS this season, so Crochet turned the Yankees collectively into a worse hitter than Escarra.

If Crochet goes out and dominates the Yankees like he just did the Blue Jays in his final start of the season with eight scoreless innings, the Yankees will face elimination in Game 2 with Carlos Rodon pitching for their season. Rodon may have had a great year, leading the league in hits per nine innings with a measly 6.1, but I have seen enough Rodon over three years to know I don’t want him on the mound with the season on the line.

4. Enter, Max Fried. Fried was signed to win the exact game he will start on Tuesday, and he has to be as good as Crochet on Tuesday for as long as Crochet. Rob Refsnyder and Connor Wong can’t be hitting doubles down the left-field line against Fried. He has to be at his absolute best to avoid needing to trust the emotionally-unstable-on-the-mound Rodon to save the season on Wednesday.

5. Two weeks ago, the Yankees lost to Crochet at Fenway Park, and in that game, Aaron Boone had Austin Slater bat leadoff. Slater repaid him by going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Slater is 3-for-25 with a .240 OPS as a Yankee. He’s not a major-league player, let alone someone who should be on the postseason roster or playing in a postseason game. In Crochet’s other starts, Jasson Dominguez, DJ LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza and Pablo Reyes started games. The former doesn’t get to play anymore and the latter three aren’t even on the team. But it’s not like the Yankees’ regulars hit Crochet. No one hits Crochet.

After looking at every Yankees individual plate appearances against Crochet this season, this is the lineup I believe would give them the best chance to win on Tuesday:

Amed Rosario, LF
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, CF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Anthony Volpe, SS
Jose Caballero, 3B
Ben Rice, 1B
Jazz Chisholm, 2B
Austin Wells, C

This lineup may seem insane because I’m stacking three lefties in a row at the bottom of the order against Crochet, which sets up a magnificent lane for him to get outs, but the disparity in numbers for righties against him and lefties is so great that you need all righties at the top to get them the most at-bats possible. (Righties have a .654 OPS against him and lefties have a .455 OPS against him.) Get the righties as many at-bats against him as you can, and then remove them as you see fit. Trent Grisham for Rosario when a righty comes in. Ryan McMahon for Caballero or Volpe when a righty comes in. Paul Goldschmidt for Rice for defense when Rice is guaranteed to not have another at-bat.

I’m willing to bat three lefties in order against Crochet because Rice has never struck out in eight at-bats against him and has a double. Seven groundouts in eight at-bats with a double and no strikeouts is impressive against Crochet. Maybe Chisholm can work a walk and use his legs or go the other way for a single and not think he’s going to plant one in the second deck off Crochet? And Wells has a home run and double off Crochet, so the ability to get to him is there.

I realize the Yankees would never use this lineup. It makes too much sense for an organization and front office that started Kevin Brown in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS and used Deivi Garcia as an opener and J.A. Happ as a bulk reliever n Game 2 of the 2022 ALDS. Instead, Boone will bat Goldschmidt at the top of the order (despite the narrative Goldschmidt hits lefties well being untrue for months now) and use lefty-right alternation throughout the bottom half and Crochet will carve them up just like he did twice in June, once in August and once in September.

6. There are two ways to beat Crochet: multi-run home runs or working the count. The first is extremely hard to count on, but Crochet can be prone to the long ball. Run into a three-run home and you can win Game 1. Try to string together walks and singles and you will be playing for your season on Wednesday. Because planning for or counting on home runs isn’t wise, the Yankees’ best course of action is to tire Crochet, get his pitch count up and hope he’s out after six innings. Crochet had a 3.55 ERA in September, which was his highest ERA for a month this season and after leading the league in innings and strikeouts, there has to be some level of fatigue involved. Here are Crochet’s innings by season:

2021: 54.1
2022: 0
2023: 12.2
2024: 146.0
2025: 205.1

That’s quite the year-over-year jump since he missed all of 2022 due to injury. This is the farthest into a season Crochet has ever pitched and this will be the biggest game he has ever pitched. He wouldn’t be the first all-world starter to poop his pants in his first taste of the postseason.

7. Fried knows a lot about pooping his pants in the postseason with a 5.10 ERA in 67 postseason innings. His postseason history was my single-biggest when the Yankees signed him. I hope he’s past it. He knows what to expect on Tuesday, having pitched (and pitched well) in a World Series clincher. The moment won’t be too big for him, and if he’s locating, he should have no problem going through the weak Red Sox lineup.

8. The Yankees lineup producing in the postseason is what keeps me up at night. No matter what happens during the regular season, the entirety of the Yankees’ season each year hinges on whether or not the bats will be there in October.

The dynastic Yankees of the late-‘90s and 2000s won in the postseason because their stars remained stars in October. When the 163rd game came, there was no drop-off in production despite only facing the top teams and elite pitching each game. Look at these regular season vs. postseason career numbers.

Derek Jeter regular season: .310/.377/.440
Derek Jeter postseason: .308/.374/.465

Bernie Williams regular season: .297/.381/.477
Bernie Williams postseason: .275/.371/.480

Paul O’Neill regular season: .288/.363/.470
Paul O’Neill postseason: .284/.363/.465

That hasn’t happened with this Yankees core. When October comes, these Yankees have always disappeared, and Aaron Judge has been as big of a problem as anyone.

Aaron Judge regular season: .288/.406/.604
Aaron Judge postseason: .205/.318/.450

Judge has the home run record. He has the captaincy. He has the long-term contract and life-changing, generational wealth. The only thing missing is a championship. Unfortunately, he’s not the only Yankee whose postseason OPS is nowhere near their regular-season OPS, and not in a good way as the only two Yankees who have a higher postseason OPS than regular-season OPS are Stanton and Volpe. They are the two hitters on the Yankees I trust most going into the postseason because Stanton always shows up and Volpe will do enough to make everyone think 2026 will be his year and then he will go on to post a .680 OPS while playing every day next season.

9. Then there’s the managerial mismatch between Boone and Alex Cora. Boone is 1-4 in the postseason against Cora and after being worried about Crochet pitching against the 2025 Yankees like 2009 Cliff Lee and the Yankees’ offense performing their annual postseason disappearing act, I’m most worried about Boone and what he’s capable of in the postseason.

Boone has been exceptionally bad in the bad postseason. In his first postseason in 2018, in the pivotal Game 3 at home, his starting pitcher didn’t know the start time of the game. In that same game, he let that starting pitcher go back out for a third inning despite giving up piss missiles all over the place in the first two innings. By the time he decided to make a pitching change, the Yankees were down 3-0 and the bases were loaded with no outs. Despite having a stable of strikeout arms in his bullpen, he went to a starter with mediocre strikeout ability and it ended in the Yankees suffering their most lopsided home postseason loss in franchise history.

The following night, facing elimination, he let CC Sabathia face the entire Red Sox lineup a second time because he liked the matchup of Sabathia against Jackie Bradley Jr., who was batting ninth. The Yankees were eliminated.

The next October, he used Happ in relief in extra innings in Game 2 of the ALCS. Carlos Correa walked off the Yankees and the Yankees went 1-4 over the final five games of the series.

In 2020, there was the Garcia-Happ debacle in the ALDS.

In 2021, he led the odds-on favorite in the AL to a third-place finish in the division and a fifth-place finish in the AL. Their postseason lasted nine innings (and really just a half-inning of those nine thanks to Gerrit Cole).

In 2022, he changed his starting shortstop daily, somehow made Clarke Schmidt the first guy out of the bullpen in Game 1 of the ALCS, kept batting Josh Donaldson fifth and eventually used video from the 2004 Yankees’ ALCS collapse to motivate his own Yankees team.

Last year, his decision to have Nestor Cortes face Freddie Freeman will be part of postseason promos and lore for as long as baseball is played.

The Boone Yankees are 22-23 in the postseason. His Yankees have never won a series against a non-AL Central team. A lot of it is because of the offense’s annual disappearing act, but Boone hasn’t done anything to elevate the chances of his previous six postseason teams. If anything, he has hindered their chances of winning.

I like to say the Yankees need to outhit their own manager to win games to prevent him from having an impact on close games. That’s not possible in the playoffs where games are low scoring and close. Every decision Boone makes from the moment he starts to fill out his lineup card until the final out of each postseason game is crucial, and he has been incapable of handling the pressure that comes with making many consecutive correct decisions, which is what it takes to win in October.

I want nothing more than for the Yankees to win and for Boone to win. I don’t want to sit through another end-of-the-season press conference with him telling everyone how close the team is and how sweet it’s going to be once they do win it all. “The top of the mountain” as he likes to say. Just win for the first time in his eight-year tenure and the first time in 15 years for the franchise, so I can stop dreaming about the day he’s no longer employed by the team.

10. The only way for Boone and every Yankee other than Bellinger and Fried to do what they have never done is to now do what they couldn’t do over the last six months: beat the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The reason the Yankees are playing their first postseason game on Tuesday instead of Saturday is because they couldn’t beat the Red Sox and Blue Jays. They’re only guaranteed Tuesday and Wednesday as of now. To get to Saturday they’ll have to make the best of the worst-case scenario they created for themselves.

1. Sometimes I think about what kind of record the Yankees would have annually if they were a part of the AL Central. It seems unfair the Central gets an automatic postseason bid. It seems ridiculous the Tigers and Guardians both only have 86 wins at the moment when they play 39 games against the Royals, Twins and White Sox.

2. The White Sox played like the 101-loss team they are this week in the Bronx and the Yankees finished the regular season 6-1 against them. Add in the 6-0 record against the Royals and 4-2 against the Twins and the Yankees went 16-3 against the Central’s three-worst teams.

3. The Yankees’ postseason situation is no more clear today than it was before the White Sox series. If anything, it’s more confusing. The Yankees could finish as the first wild card or they could finish with the best record in the AL. They could host the Red Sox on Tuesday in a best-of-3 or the Guardians or the Tigers or the Astros. They could not play at all on Tuesday and host the winner of the AL Central-third wild-card team next Saturday in Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. The possibilities are seemingly endless for when the Yankees will play next week and who they will play against. I have given up trying to figure out who to root for this weekend other than to root for the Yankees and against the Blue Jays and Red Sox. But maybe not too hard against the Red Sox, since you want them to not be the Yankees’ wild-card opponent, but you also want to make sure they end up in whichever side of the bracket the Yankees aren’t in.

4. I still don’t feel good about rooting for the Red Sox from Tuesday through Thursday against the Blue Jays, and if the Yankees are unable to pull off the division comeback and end up playing the Red Sox in the wild-card series next week I will feel worse about it. As I have written of late, the Red Sox in a three-game series are the only team I fear in the AL playoffs. The Yankees against any other team in a best-of-3, best-of-5 or best-of-7 would have me confident in the Yankees advancing in every scenario.

The dream scenario for the next week is the following:

The Yankees win the division and finish with the best record in the AL … and … the Blue Jays and Red Sox play in the ALDS and go the full three games with the Blue Jays winning the series … and … the Guardians and Tigers play in the ALDS and go the full three gams with the Guardians winning the series.

5. Those results would set up the two ALDS to be the Yankees against the Guardians and the Mariners against the Blue Jays. The Yankees would draw the best possible opponent in the entire AL field in the ALDS and then either play a Mariners team they went 5-1 against this season (and swept at a point in the season when they couldn’t beat anyone) or a Blue Jays team that has lost seven of nine to give the Yankees division life, is without Bo Bichette, has a weak rotation and a bad bullpen and employs one of the few managers who makes me appreciate Aaron Boone.

6. As of this moment the Yankees are the best team in the AL. They are the healthiest of the field with the deepest rotation and best overall roster. That doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t lose or that they won’t be eliminated in two games if they end up in the wild-card series. Anything can happen in a short series and when you have the baserunning and defensive history of these Yankees coupled with their bullpen trust issues and a manager who has shown no signs of progress in eight years, it’s easy to see how their season could be over a week from now. But it’s just as easy to see them returning to the World Series for the second straight year.

7. The only playoff scenario that worries me is the Yankees facing the Red Sox in the wild-card series. That’s it. Give me the Red Sox in the ALDS or ALCS and I will feel completely confident. If the Yankees aren’t eliminated in the wild-card series by the Red Sox then I don’t think they have a chance at elimination until the World Series.

8. If the Yankees play and lose to the Red Sox in the wild-card series it will hurt as bad as any postseason elimination in my lifetime because it will come at the hands of the Red Sox and because of how weak the AL field is. Having to think about what could have been all offseason had the Yankees managed or played with even a hint of urgency from mid June to mid August will be depressing. If the Yankees lose the division it will be hard not to think about every runner left on third with one out, every leadoff double stranded, every Devin Williams meltdown, every nonsensical Boone decision or the 17 games that were started by Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Ian Hamilton and Allan Winans. If the Yankees don’t end up as the 2025 AL East champions it will be because they blew it, not because the Blue Jays won it.

9. Even with the same 90-68 record as the Blue Jays, it’s unlikely the Yankees win the division this weekend. They still need to win one more game than the Blue Jays do and facing the Orioles’ best three starters in Trevor Rogers, Tomoyuki Sugano and Kyle Bradish won’t be easy considering Rogers and Bradish thoroughly dominated the Yankees last weekend. With Max Fried and Carlos Rodon done for the regular season, the Yankees will have to win the division against two of the best starters in the league with their 3-4-5 starters. Yankees fans need to hope the Orioles offense spends the last weekend of the season in Manhattan as one would spend a weekend in Manhattan before embarking on a four-plus month vacation. The offseason awaits the Orioles on Sunday around 6 p.m. and they should get the party started by taking advantage of the city’s favorable 4 a.m. bar closures.

10. Give me Yankees wins and Blue Jays losses on Friday and Saturday and the Mariners having one less win than the Yankees at the end of play on Saturday. That would give the Yankees the East and the best record in the AL and it would make Game 163 on Sunday meaningless. Give me one meaningless day from this stressful season before the real season begins. Is that too much to ask?

1. For 8 2/3 innings on Tuesday it looked like the Yankees would blow their biggest divisional opportunity of September against the worst team in the American League. They stranded two runners in the first, scored once but left the bases loaded in the second, stranded one in the third, another in the fourth, ran into an out on the bases in the fifth and the sixth, hit into an inning-ending double play in the seventh and left two more on in the eighth.

2. Trailing 2-1 in the ninth, the unlikely rally bats of Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells led off the inning with back-to-back singles to turn the lineup over with the tying run on second and the winning run on first with no outs. Volpe and Wells combined to see 10 pitches in their ninth-inning at-bats, but Trent Grisham swung at the first pitch he saw and hit into a 4-6-3 double play. Fortunately, the White Sox are the worst team in the AL for a reason and they couldn’t get the last out of the inning as Aaron Judge walked and Cody Bellinger walked with ball 4 to Bellinger coming on a wild pitch to score Volpe to tie game. Jose Caballero followed by grinding out a nine-pitch at-bat, which ended the game with a single to center to score Judge and give the Yankees a 3-2 win.

3. The win clinched a postseason berth for the Yankees and clinched my preseason wager of over 88.5 wins for the Yankees. When the Yankees improved to 42-25 on June 12, the rest of the season seemed like a formality in achieving more than 88.5 wins since they would need to go just 47-48 the rest of the way. But after falling apart from that day through mid-August, it took until Game 157 for them to win their 89th game.

4. The Yankees are headed back to the postseason, but how they are headed there is still unknown.

I laid out a path to winning the division in these Thoughts at the end of August, and for a while, it seemed like it may work out. But after the Yankees took two of three from the Blue Jays in early September, the Blue Jays took of three from the Astros and swept the Orioles. The math was ruined at the point and it would take a full-fledged Blue Jays collapse for the Yankees to have a chance. Well, that full-fledged collapse is on with the Blue Jays having lost five of six and set to face Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello the next two nights. The Yankees’ division odds went from 9.1 percent before the weekend to 25.7 percent after Tuesday’s win.

5. The Yankees are one game back of the Blue Jays in the loss column, but two games overall because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. So for the Yankees to overtake the Blue Jays (after blowing an eight-game lead to the Blue Jays during the summer), here is the updated table on what needs to happen:

6. The Blue Jays are a mess. Their bullpen is in shambles, Bo Bichette is still out injured, they demoted Jose Berrios to a relief role and he didn’t take it well then Chris Bassitt was placed on the injured list and now Berrios will likely need to return to the rotation. They have played well above what their run differential suggests their record should be all season and now the jig seems to be up. If the season were a couple of games longer than 162, I would say there’s no doubt the Yankees win the division. Unfortunately, it’s not, and unfortunately, the Yankees annually treat the regular season like it will go on forever with a general lack of urgency throughout it. It’s never until the Yankees need to tell everyone “It’s right in front of them” that they begin to show a sense of urgency.

7. The only people rooting against the Yankees more than Blue Jays fans and Red Sox fans are the Steinbrenners. The Steinbrenners’ dream is for the Yankees to host the wild-card series and have that series go the distance and then have every round after it go the distance en route to a championship. If the Yankees receive the first-round bye, the Yankees lose two to three home game gates and everything that goes with them.

8. If the Yankees have to play in the wild-card series and survive it, I think they will reach the World Series. The AL is so bad. The only team I’m remotely worried about them playing is the Red Sox, simply because of Crochet and Bello’s success against them this season. If the Yankees are to play in the wild-card round then it will likely be against the Red Sox, and if they are to survive the wild-card round then that means the Red Sox are eliminated. The Mariners? The Yankees went 5-1 against them this season and swept them at a time when they couldn’t win a series against any team. The Tigers? No, I’m not scared of a team that bats Gleyber Torres second and has now blown the biggest division lead in baseball history. The Guardians? They are a dream scenario. A one-hitter team with no rotation and a bullpen that isn’t what it was at this time last year. The Blue Jays? Again, if the season were a few days longer, the Blue Jays would undoubtedly lose the division. They will enter the postseason with the worst bullpen of the entire field, and that will likely lead to their demise. The Astros? I’m only scared of the Astros because of what they have done to the Yankees in the past. But the Astros are no longer the Astros as we knew them from 2017-2023 and without Yordan Alvarez, they’re not to be feared.

9. Certainly, there’s always a “Be careful what you wish for” part of planning for the postseason. Any team can beat any team, especially in a best-of-3. The Yankees lost three-game series this season to the Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Angels, Reds, Marlins and Rangers — seven teams that are currently outside of the postseason picture. The Yankees are the healthiest team in the AL with the best and deepest roster in the AL, though that doesn’t mean anything. The Yankees are their own worst enemy and needing to beat their own sloppiness and their own manager has been too much to overcome in their previous six postseason trips during the Boone era.

10. It’s Max Fried against a bullpen game for the White Sox. It’s about as lopsided a matchup as you could have in Major League Baseball, but there’s a reason John Sterling warned about predicting this game throughout his career. Tonight, I’m not only a Yankees fan, but also a huge Red Sox fan. Tonight, I’m a Garrett Crochet fan, knowing very well if the Yankees fail to win the division, it will be Crochet who the Yankees will likely face six days from now in the Bronx in the first game of the postseason. If the Yankees do their job and Crochet does his on Wednesday, the Yankees will be one win closer to avoiding him in a best-of-3.

1. A couple of easy wins, a tough loss and a good comeback win made up the weekend against the Orioles. It was the kind of weekend I expected. Nothing to get overly excited or upset about. The rest of the league provided those emotions.

The Blue Jays lost two of three to the Royals to fall to two games ahead of the Yankees in the loss column (and three overall because of the tiebreaker). The Red Sox lost two of three to the Rays to fall to three back of the Yankees in the loss column (and two overall because of the tiebreaker). The Mariners swept the Astros to all but wrap up the West and the Guardians won another series to pull within one game of the Tigers before their three-game series this week. The AL playoff standings are chaotic and the Yankees are outside observers since they conducted all of their chaos in the summer when they blew an eight-game lead to the Blue Jays.

2. I knew Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish would be an issue for the Yankees offense this weekend and they were, combining for this line: 12 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 14 K. That duo is a problem and I’m glad the Yankees are only scheduled to face one of them this coming week in Bradish.

3. That’s the kind of starting pitching the Yankees are going to see beginning next week and their performance against those two was worrisome. If the Yankees draw the Red Sox, they have to deal with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. If they get the Tigers, there’s Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty (who sucks against every team other than the Yankees). They could get the deep rotation of the Mariners, Blue Jays or Astros. The only team any Yankees fan could feel confident about seeing next week is the Guardians, and that’s becoming a real possibility and the possibility every Yankees fan should root for.

4. The Yankees haven’t won a postseason series against a non-AL Central team since the 2012 ALDS against the Orioles. The Aaron Boone Yankees are 15-4 against the AL Central in postseason games and 7-19 against all other divisions. I’m the biggest Guardians fan in the world right now, rooting for them every night to somehow surpass the Red Sox and end up in the second wild-card spot and play the Yankees. They have no ace, their bullpen isn’t what it was last year and their lineup is one superstar and mediocrity. They are the easiest path for the Yankees to advance to the ALDS.

5. Michael Kay kept saying over the weekend how unfortunate the Yankees’ loss on Friday was because the Blue Jays lost that day and had the Yankees won they would be one-game back in the loss column. You can’t expect to four-game sweep any team, even a team that has nothing to play for like the Orioles. How about you don’t blow an eight-game lead over the Blue Jays? How about you don’t go 5-8 against the Blue Jays or 4-9 against the Red Sox or get swept by the Marlins in August or lose a game in Colorado in May or let Carlos Carrasco start six games? The Yankees aren’t two games back in the loss column and three games back overall from the Blue Jays because they lost to the best statistical starting pitcher in the league on Saturday. They’re where they are because they went 18-29 from June 13 to August 5. They have their annual summer swoon, their inability to win divisional games and their inability to treat all games throughout the season the same as to why they are in the position they are in.

6. Here is the updated table of what needs to happen for the Yankees to win the division:

While the Yankees play the White Sox, the Blue Jays will play the Red Sox. If the Yankees can stack wins against the worst team in the AL they will be guaranteed to either make up ground on the Blue Jays or create ground on the Red Sox every night from Tuesday through Thursday. The Yankees’ division odds went from 9.1 percent before the weekend to 14.3 percent after the weekend.

7. If Sunday’s game took place in early June, July or early August, the Yankees lose. There’s no doubt in my mind they lose. They either never score and get shut out or they lose in extra innings. I think it was fitting that the 2025 Yankees’ final regular-season road game was an extra-inning win, considering how bad they have been on the road in extra innings this season and how bad they have been on the road in extra innings since the automatic runner was implemented with the worst record in the majors.

8. My favorite Yankees lineup is when Ben Rice bats fourth or fifth, not second. Aaron Judge should always bat second. (I would bat him first, but we all know that was only a 2022 late-summer desperation tactic and the Yankees won’t revisit it.) Rice should never force Judge down the lineup and should never bat ahead of Cody Bellinger and not guarantee Bellinger a first-inning plate appearance.

This is the best Yankees lineup at the moment against a right-handed starter:

Trent Grisham, CF
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, LF
Ben Rice, 1B
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Jazz Chisholm, 2B
Ryan McMahon, 3B
Jose Caballero, SS
Austin Wells, C

This is the best Yankees lineup at the moment against a left-handed starter:

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, CF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Amed Rosario, LF
Jazz Chisholm, 2B
Jose Caballero, 3B
Anthony Volpe, SS
Ben Rice, C

9. Jose Caballero started the last two games of the Tigers series, the entire Red Sox series, two of three in the Twins series and two of four in the Orioles series. In those 10 starts, he hit .333/.412/.567 with a .978 OPS, five extra-base hits, five stolen bases and four walks. If the competition to see who will be the starting shortstop in the postseason is really a competition then the competition is over. But we all know it’s not really a competition and the slightest bit of success from Volpe over last week and this coming week will be enough for the Yankees to disregard three years of poor performance. And that’s exactly what’s happening. With each Volpe single or longer-than-three-pitch-at-bat, the Yankees are getting what they want which is a reason to start Volpe in the playoffs. I’m prepared for it. I know how these things go and how they have gone in the Boone era, and I’m prepared for Volpe to be playing and striking out and throwing balls away starting next Tuesday.

10. The Yankees are either going to be the first wild card and have home-field advantage for the best-of-3 or they are going to be the No. 1 overall seed in the AL and have home-field advantage in the ALDS and ALCS (if they get that far). Either way the Yankees are home this entire week and will stay home next week as well. If they survive the wild-card series, their next road game won’t be until Saturday, Oct. 4 (12 days from now), and if they win the division, their next road game won’t be until Tuesday, Oct. 7 (15 days from now). The Yankees are set up logistically, health-wise and rotation-wise right now for whichever round they open in. Now it’s just a matter of picking up a few wins this week, staying healthy and getting everyone whatever work they need to prepare for next Tuesday … or Saturday.

1. The version of Max Fried that pitched to a 1.92 ERA in his first 17 starts as a Yankee through June 25 has returned. The version of Fried that pitched to a 6.80 ERA over eight starts from July 1 through August 16 is gone. (At least I hope he is.) Fried dominated the Orioles on Thursday night with seven scoreless, three-hit innings and a career-high 13 strikeouts to improve to 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA since August 22.

“I’m feeling really good physically,” Fried said. “I feel like I did toward the beginning of the year.”

2. My biggest fear when the Yankees signed Fried was how he would pitch in important games, especially in the postseason given his spotty playoff history in 12 starts and 20 games. But over the last month Fried pitched well in Houston, against the Blue Jays and grinded through a solid start without his best stuff at Fenway Park. He’s looking like the best version of himself at the best possible time with one remaining start in the regular season before he takes the ball for Game 1 of the postseason.

“That’s when you want to really hit your stride, going into the last week or so,” Fried said. “We want to go out there and finish strong and go into the playoffs strong.”

3. The Yankees took an early lead on a two-run double in the first inning from Amed Rosario, who has solidified himself as a lineup must whenever a lefty is starting. That’s all the Yankees would need with how good Fried was, but they added a run in the fifth and four more in the seventh.

Paul Goldschmidt went 2-for-5 leading off, Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger each had a pair of walks, Austin Wells had a couple of hits, Jose Caballero reached base three times and Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe and Jazz Chisholm all had doubles. Aaron Boone opted to play Trent Grisham (0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts) over Austin Slater. If Slater isn’t going to start every game against a lefty then I don’t know what his purpose is.

4. It was a nice, easy win, which was a welcome sight. It’s been a long time since the Yankees have had a laugher. In the 18 games since August 29, only their August 29 win over the White Sox and September 11 win over the Tigers were games won comfortably. Every other game has been a nail-biter, won late or lost. That’s a long time to play nearly only stressful baseball.

5. If the Yankees play in the wild-card series, Fried will have five days of rest before Game 1. If the Yankees miraculously win the division, he will have nine days of rest before Game 1. Either way, the Yankees’ rotation lines up beautifully for whichever round they open in.

6. On Thursday, the Guardians and Mariners won and the Blue Jays and Red Sox lost. The Yankees are now three games back in the loss column from the Blue Jays for the division (and four games overall because of the tiebreaker) with nine games to play. Here is the updated table of what needs to happen for the Yankees to win the division:

7. Again, I’m certainly still scoreboard watching the Blue Jays and praying for their demise and a lengthy losing streak to end the season, but I’m realistic in knowing it’s going to take an all-time collapse for it to happen. The Yankees are going to need a lot of help from the Royals, Red Sox and Rays to make the dream come true. The Yankees’ division odds are 9.1 precent on FanGraphs and their postseason odds are at 99.9 percent.

8. As for the wild card, the Yankees now have a two-game lead in the loss column over the AL West and a three-game lead in the loss column over the Red Sox (though it’s really two because of the tiebreaker). The Guardians are now just a game behind the Red Sox. The Rays are going to play a major role in deciding who the Yankees play as they have series left with the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

9. Will Warren gets the ball on Friday for the first time since his disastrous first inning on Sunday at Fenway Park. Warren’s latest first-inning meltdown now has him at a 6.39 ERA with an .839 OPS against in 31 first innings this season. With Trevor Rogers going for the Orioles, Warren can’t get lit up again like that. Rogers has a 1.43 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP in 16 starts this season. He has only allowed more than two runs in a start once this year and that was in his second start of the season. The Orioles are 12-4 this season when Rogers starts and 6-1 over the last six weeks. He doesn’t walk anyone (24 in 100 2/3 innings), doesn’t allow hits (66), doesn’t allow home runs (3) and he’s a lefty. If you were going to build a starting pitcher with the purpose of beating this Yankees team, you would build Rogers.

10. Because Rogers is a lefty, you’re likely going to see the same lineup from Thursday on Friday. Maybe Boone sits Grisham for Slater and Ben Rice plays instead of Wells, but other than that I don’t think anything changes. (It’s possible Ryan McMahon could start as he’s 2-for-4 against Rogers.) The Yankees will need to find a way to get a couple of runs off Rogers or wear him down enough to get the bullpen for three or four innings. Most importantly, Warren needs to be good.