Neil Keefe

Jan 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Round Picks

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either Tony Romo or Aaron Rodgers will go home and either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck’s season will be over. And, oh yeah, the Panthers’ season is over because they are going to get run out of Seattle.

I ended the regular season two games over .500, needing to go just 5-6 in the playoffs to finish over .500. After last week’s 1-3 disaster thanks to believing in Ryan Lindley on the road, the untrustworthy Steelers and a Bengals team led by Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis playing without A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham on the road, I’m making things interesting when they don’t need to be. I deserved to go 1-3 with choices like that.

This week will be different because it has to be. There is too much on the line when it comes to my picks and My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma and an eventual champion.

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND
The Ravens’ wins this season have come against Pittsburgh (2), Cleveland (2), Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, New Orleans, Miami and Jacksonville. Their losses have come against Cincinnati (2), Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston. The Ravens have gone 2-6 against winning teams, and both of their wins came against their rival in the Steelers. They are the 6-seed in the AFC and the only reason they were able to sneak into the playoffs is because half of their schedule this season was played against the AFC South and NFC South. So why does anyone think the Ravens can beat the Patriots or even keep the game close? The real answer is I have no idea, but for me, I have no choice other than to hope the Ravens can keep the game close and to hope that they can win the game outright.

It pains to me to have to root for the Ravens, considering that they’re probably the scummiest organization in all of professional sports (yes, even scummier than the Red Sox), but like I said, I have no choice. The Patriots are two wins from getting back to the Super Bowl and three wins from ending what will be a 10-year drought if they are eliminated this week or next week or lose in three weeks in Super Bowl XLIX. But no matter what happens today, if the Ravens win or the Patriots win, we all lose. Either the Patriots are one step closer to doing something they have failed to do for the last nine seasons, or the Ravens will be that much closer to becoming champions in a season in which all of the karma in the world should be going against them.

SEATTLE -11.5 over Carolina
This should be the 4:30 game on Saturday because people have things to do at that time on Saturday and missing this game and checking later to see the Seahawks won by 30 points is acceptable.

Last week, Jon Gruden seemed amazed every time the Panthers made a mental or physical mistake against the Cardinals. Gruden couldn’t believe that the Panthers could be so bad or so careless with the football in a playoff game. And each time Gruden’s voice hit astonishing levels, I so badly wanted Mike Tirico to interrupt him and remind him that the Panthers are a 7-8-1 team that would have been focused on their draft position rather than a playoff game if they had played in any other division. Five of the other division winners finished with 12 wins (4.5 more wins than the Panthers) and the other two finished with 11 (3.5 more wins than the Panthers).

The Seahawks won 12 games, a year after winning 13 games and three more in the playoffs. They have gone 28-7 over the last two years and after starting 3-3 this season, they are 9-1 over their last 10 and have given up a total of 39 points in the last six (6.5 points per game).

The Seahawks are the best home team and the best team in the NFL and they are going to win the Super Bowl. The Panthers might not score on Saturday night.

GREEN BAY -6 over Dallas
The game of the week played between two teams I hate with one having to move on and play for a trip to Glendale. It’s a nightmare situation like the Red Sox and Angels meeting in the ALDS or the Flyers and Devils meeting in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Cowboys were the 11th-ranked team in My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma, just ahead of the Patriots. (The only team that could challenge the Patriots for the top spot is the Eagles.) Their season should have ended last Sunday against the Lions before the refs took over the game, screwed the Lions over on the pass interference and then did everything other than carry the ball into the end zone themselves on the Cowboys’ go-ahead (and eventual game-winning) drive.

The Cowboys don’t deserve to still be playing football and the Packers at Lambeau will make sure of that.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I used to think if the Broncos could win the 1-seed in the AFC and host the AFC Championship Game then the Patriots wouldn’t have a red carpet to the Super Bowl. But ever since the Broncos were 6-1 and went to Gillette Stadium in Week 9 and left with a 43-21 loss, they haven’t been the same team. Sure, they were 6-2 after their loss to the Patriots and they went 6-2 over the final eight weeks of the season, but something has been off about the Broncos.

Unfortunately, I think the best chance of the Patriots getting eliminated before the Super Bowl is this week against the Ravens and that’s not a very good chance considering the Ravens couldn’t beat a winning team all season not named the Steelers. Neither the Broncos or Colts are going to beat the Patriots on the road, but the Broncos’ chances are better than the Colts’ since their team is one player.

I really, really, really hope the Broncos can find themselves and return to being the team that ran through the AFC playoffs a year ago. Because without that happening, Super Sunday isn’t going to be about gambling, getting drunk and eating 5,000 calories. OK, it’s still going to be about those things, but it’s really going to be about continuing the drought.

Last week: 1-3-0
Season: 128-128-4

NHL • Podcasts

Jan 9, 2015

Podcast: Ryan Brandell

The ‘Road to the NHL Winter Classic’ series is over for the year and it’s a shame because watching Joel Quenneville each week had become the best thing on TV.

The holiday season has come and gone and that means the Winter Classic has as well. And along with the end of the Winter Classic is the end of the Road to the NHL Winter Classic series on EPIX, which nicely filled the void left by HBO’s 24/7 version of the show for three seasons.

Ryan Brandell of Barstool Sports Chicago (known as “Chief” on that site), joined me to talk about the fourth episode of the series, Joel Quenneville becoming the most likable personality in the NHL, the Blackhawks’ disappointing loss in the Winter Classic and parity in the league this season.

Podcasts • Rangers

Jan 7, 2015

Podcast: Brian Monzo

The Rangers are on a roll and it feels like they are going to win every single game and it doesn’t matter which team they are playing.

The Rangers are on a roll. For the first time since … well, ever … it feels like they are going to win every single game and it doesn’t matter which team they are playing. With 11 wins in their last 12 games and looking like the team that came back against the Penguins and crushed the Canadiens before being unable to win in overtime against the Kings, the Rangers are on a the type of run that hasn’t been seen in a long, long time.

WFAN Mike’s On: Francesa on the FAN producer Brian Monzo joined me to talk about the Rangers taking their hot streak to the West Coast, why baseball’s Hall of Fame voting process needs to be fixed and who to root for in the NFL playoffs. We also get a little nostalgic about the state of Friendly’s.

Blogs • Giants

Jan 2, 2015

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

The regular season finished with a 127-125-4 record and it’s only going to take a mediocre postseason to finish over .500 for the year.

The picks regular season finished strong and with a final record of 127-125-4. That means I have to go just 5-6 in the playoffs to finish over .500 for the season. That shouldn’t be too hard, but a bad slate of first-round games won’t make it easy.

(Home team in caps)

Arizona +6.5 over CAROLINA
The Panthers finished the season 7-8-1, won their division and received a home game for the first round. Five of the other division winners finished with 12 wins (4.5 more wins than the Panthers) and the other two finished with 11 (3.5 more wins than the Panthers).

The NFL needs to fix the playoff format to avoid ever having a 7-8-1 team hosting a first-round playoff game. Four years ago, when the Seahawks won the NFC West at 7-9, they hosted the defending champion Saints and beat them and everyone let it slide because a 7-9 team had never made the playoffs before and they just figured it would likely never happen again. But it did happen again just four years later. And a 7-9 team didn’t make the playoffs, a 7-8-1 team did.

There needs to be a rule implemented that if an under-.500 team can win their division and get a playoff berth, but they can’t host a first-round playoff game. There’s no reason the 7-8-1 Panthers should be hosting the 11-5 Cardinals this weekend.

PITTSBURGH -3.5 over Baltimore
The Steelers have the best chance of any of the teams in the AFC playoffs of eliminating the Patriots. Normally I wouldn’t root for the Steelers, unless they’re playing the Ravens, but the idea of them going to Gillette and knocking off the Patriots next week is reason enough.

Cincinnati +4 over INDIANAPOLIS
For some unknown reason, I have an irrational confidence in the Bengals. No matter how many times they screw me over, I continue to pick them. But sometimes it works out for me like it did on Monday Night Football in Week 16 when I bet the Bengals +185 to beat the Broncos.

As much as I shouldn’t trust the Bengals is how much I don’t trust the Colts. They already beat up on the Bengals back in Week 7 with a 27-0 win, but that’s what they do, they beat up on other bad teams. This is a battle of bad teams, so I’m taking the points.

Detroit +6.5 over DALLAS
The worst part about the Giants not winning the NFC East and making the playoffs aside from not making the playoffs is that another team has to win the division and make the playoffs. Last year it was the Eagles, this year it’s the Cowboys. Next year it better be the Giants or it will be a fourth straight postseason-less year for them and Tom Coughlin will no longer be the head coach.

I want the Cowboys out of the playoffs and out of them as fast as possible. As long as a Cowboys-Patriots Super Bowl matchup is a possibility (no matter how remote of a possibility it might be, it’s still a possibility) I have to worry about it and I just want to watch the NFL playoffs and have fun doing it and not have to worry about Super Sunday being ruined.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 127-125-4

Blogs • NFL

Dec 30, 2014

My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma

The Giants won’t win Super Bowl XLIX, but some team will, so it’s time to figure out who to root for the in the NFL playoffs.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLIX, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 2 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) their season has ended in December for the third year in a row. Without the Giants in the playoffs, it’s time to once again rank the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLIX to which team I don’t want to see win at all.

1. Cardinals
In 2013, Bruce Arians’ Cardinals finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs because of the deep NFC West, while the 8-7-1- Packers won their division and hosted a first-round game. This season, Arians lost his starting quarterback, Carson Palmer, for Weeks 2, 3 and 5 (they had a bye in Week 4), and then to a season-ending injury in Week 10. The Cardinals went 6-0 when Palmer was their quarterback and 5-5 when he wasn’t. The Cardinals could have been looking at becoming the first team to win the Super Bowl in their own building if Palmer hadn’t gotten hurt, but now they have to settle for starting either their third- or fourth-string quarterback in the playoffs. Arians has dealt with some bad luck through his first two seasons with the Cardinals that could only be paid off with a miraculous run in the playoffs. It’s not going to happen, but I’m rooting for it.

2. Broncos
I don’t think the Broncos are capable of going to Gillette Stadium and beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I wish they were and I hope they are, but Peyton Manning in that building just isn’t the same guy he would be if the Broncos had earned the 1-seed and would be hosting that potential game. Peyton is going to need a second Super Bowl win to be considered the greatest quarterback ever and not just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever. He had his chance in Super Bowl XLIV and again in XVIII and I hope he gets the chance again in XLIX because that will mean the Patriots won’t be there.

3. Seahawks
Last year, I had the Seahawks ranked eighth in this column because I didn’t want to see Pete Carroll running around the field as a Super Bowl champion. At the time, I said, “In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL.” But then the Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII and I got over seeing Carroll as a champion and actually grew to like the Seahawks this season, mainly because I believe they are the one true team that can beat the Patriots in a potential Super Bowl matchup.

4. Colts
The Andrew Luck lovefest is too much to take. I understand that he is going to be the face of the league once Peyton Manning and Tom Brady retire and Aaron Rodgers gets older, but can we wait until we get to that point before we anoint him as that player?

Even though I have the Colts ranked fourth, I want them to lose in the first round because they have absolutely no chance of going to Gillette Stadium and beating the Patriots in the divisional round if that is the matchup that happens. The Colts were run out of their own building by the Patriots, well Jonas Gray really in his fourth career game, and that game barely involved Tom Brady and the passing game (19-for-30 with 257 yards), so there’s a 100 percent chance they will get routed on the road.

5. Lions
The lasting image from the sidelines of Super Bowl XLV is Jim Caldwell standing there with the only look he has, which is one of confusion, and that look was only intensified following the Saints’ onside kick to begin the second half in a game the Colts could have put away if Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a would-be touchdown pass from Peyton Manning. Somehow, the Lions thought Jim Caldwell was the right man for the prime of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson’s career even after watching Caldwell stand speechless and wearing a headset seemingly connected to nothing for three years as the Colts’ head coach. I wouldn’t really mind if the Lions won the Super Bowl because they have been so bad for so long, but thinking of Caldwell as a Super Bowl-winning head coach is hard to fathom and accept.

6. Bengals
Last year, I said the following about the Bengals:

What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

Well, this season, the Bengals cost me numerous picks, parlays and teasers, and most of those were the product of Andy Dalton turning the ball over, so there is a reason to care if Dalton and the Bengals win it all.

7. Panthers
Ah, there’s nothing quite like a 7-8-1 team winning their division and getting a first-round home game. I might as well have left the Panthers off this list because without either a strong offense or defense, they are the least likely team to get to the Super Bowl, so spending time writing this paragraph about them has just been a waste of time. And let’s not forget what I wrote about them last year:

I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick.

8. Packers
Let me remind you of how the Packers’ season have ended in the Aaron Rodgers era:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in wild-card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round
2013: Lost in wild-card round

In the last six years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl. If the Packers win the Super Bowl, the never-ending praise for Rodgers is only going to get worse.

9. Steelers
Ben Roethislberger a three-time Super Bowl champion? No one wants that. But I do want Big Ben to at least get to the big game (as long as he isn’t facing the Cowboys when he gets there). Because if Roethlisberger is in Arizona then that means the Patriots aren’t and right now, I feel most confident about the Steelers upsetting the Patriots in the AFC playoffs than the Broncos or any other team.

10. Ravens
I spend every season rooting against the Ravens after what happened in Super Bowl XXXV, but this year my anti-Ravens rooting was even more pronounced thanks to their handling of their off-the-field issues and owner Steve Bisciotti’s press conference on the matters. And the cherry on top of it all was Joe Flacco going 21-for-50 for 195 yards and three interceptions (his line was way worse until the fourth quarter) against the Texans and destroying a teaser I had. There is nothing to like about the Ravens and if they win Super Bowl XLIX, Flacco would be a two-time Super Bowl champion.

11. Cowboys
There is only one team I want to win Super Bowl XLIX less than the Cowboys. The Cowboys are part of my most hated sports team group, which also includes the Red Sox, Mets, Cardinals, Eagles, Jets, Flyers and the next team on this list. A Super Bowl win for the Cowboys gives happiness to Jerry Jones and all of the fraud fans around the country, who have never been to Dallas, but are somehow Cowboys fans and gives Tony Romo the validation he needs to solidify his career and clear his name from the No. 1 spot in the Superstar Without A Championship power rankings. Tony Romo as a winner and a champion? I don’t think anyone wants that. Especially Giants fans.

12. Patriots
From the 2010 playoffs:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

Without the Giants in the playoffs, I don’t feel confident in any other team’s ability to eliminate the Patriots in the postseason. Last season, I felt confident in the Broncos’ chances at home in the AFC Championship Game and in 2012,

Sure, the Patriots have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but they were home for the 2012 AFC Championship Game against the Ravens, the 2010 divisional round against the Jets and the 2009 divisional round against the Ravens. They have lost at home in the playoffs and they can lose again. The problem is that out of the other five teams in the AFC playoffs, only the Bengals, Broncos and Colts have played the Patriots this season, going a combined 0-3 and getting outscored 110-58. In other words, the AFC field is bad. Really, really, really bad. The team’s with the best chance of extending the Patriots’ Super Bowl drought to 10 years are all in the NFC, and by the time the Patriots would have to play the NFC, there will be only one game standing between them and winning the Super Bowl and anything can happen in one game.

I’m scared that this is the year the Patriots finish the job after losing two Super Bowls, three AFC Championship Games, two divisional round losses, a wild-card round loss and a missed postseason over the last nine years. But the one thing keeping me from penciling the Patriots in as the Super Bowl XLXI champion is Mike Hurley telling me that he has seen better Patriots team he thought would win the Super Bowl and they didn’t.

The Patriots have to lose.

Author: Neil Keefe

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Podcast: Ryan Brandell

Podcast: Brian Monzo

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma