Neil Keefe

Jan 15, 2016

NFL Divisional Round Picks

After watching four road teams win on Wild-Card Weekend, I don’t know what to think heading into the divisional round. Following a 2-2 week to open the playoffs, it’s time to dominate the divisional round.

Well, last week sucked. My time as an honorary Vikings fan came to a devastating end with a missed 27-yard field goal attempt, which left my girlfriend, who is actually a Vikings fan, crushed. The Bengals left me in disbelief after leaving me with a push on a +2 wager (thankfully, they were +3 for the picks column) after back-to-back 15-yard penalties gave the Steelers a win on Wild-Card Weekend. The Chiefs ran back the opening kick for a touchdown and never looked back, making everyone question Brian Hoyer as an NFL starting quarterback in the process. The Redskins’ Cinderella story from favorite to finish last in the NFC East to NFC East champion turned back into a pumpkin in their embarrassing loss at home. And when it comes to which team I should be rooting for with the Giants not in the playoffs, my No. 1, 3, 5 and 6 teams were eliminated. I thought the playoffs were supposed to be fun.

This weekend is largely considered the best weekend of the NFL season. The top eight teams remain with two games on Saturday, so football junkies and degenerates don’t have to wait as long to get their fix, and two more on Sunday. It’s the last real weekend of football with just three games remaining after Sunday night before the winter gauntlet takes full effect until March Madness. After watching four road teams win on Wild-Card Weekend, I don’t know what to think heading into the divisional round with the Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos and Patriots coming off their byes. Following a 2-2 week to open the playoffs, it’s time to dominate the divisional round picks.

Kansas City +5 over NEW ENGLAND
A lot of my friends have told me they think the Chiefs will beat the Patriots this weekend. While it’s a nice idea and a good dream to have, it’s likely just that: an idea or a dream. The Patriots have lost three home playoff games in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. They lost to the Ravens on Wild-Card Weekend in 2009, they lost to the Jets in the divisional round in 2010 and they lost to the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game in 2012. They have won their other 14 home games since the 2001 playoffs and the only reason they have played just 17 home playoff games in 14 years is that they nearly always have a first-round bye.

The Chiefs did rout the Patriots last year with a 41-14 Week 4 win, which led Trent Dilfer to say the Patriots aren’t good anymore, which led the Patriots to go on a seven-game winning streak and finish the season 10-2 and earn the No. 1 seed and go on to win their fourth Super Bowl. But that game came at Arrowhead Stadium, where despite opening 43 years ago, has rivaled the 13-year-old CenturyLink Field and it’s modern made-for-noise structure in Seattle for sound levels. The Chiefs aren’t going to have 76,416 fans backing them to get the Patriots’ offense off their game this time and they aren’t going to have Jamaal Charles, who had three touchdowns in that game, this time either, but what they will have is their defense.

There are two ways to beat the Patriots. The first is to hope that Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski aren’t in the lineup. The second is to get to Tom Brady. Since it looks like both Edelman and Gronkowski will be playing this weekend, the Chiefs will have to turn to No. 2, and they’re more than capable of it. Get to Tom Brady and get to the AFC Championship Game. Let’s Go Chiefs!

ARIZONA -7 over Green Bay
The Cardinals are going to be the NFC champions. Since we know that then that means they beat the Packers this weekend. Since we know they are going to beat the Packers this weekend, it’s pretty fair to say they are going to easily cover the touchdown they are giving.

It was just three weeks ago that Cardinals beat the Packers 38-8 in Arizona in a game the Packers thought they had to have at the time to help them reach the postseason. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times and returned two of his fumbles for touchdowns. The following week, the Packers lost to the Vikings with the NFC North title and a first-round home game on the line before beating the Redskins on the road last week. The difference between the Redskins and the Cardinals and Vikings was their lack of a pass rush and when Rodgers had time, he was able to find James Jones, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams enough to win. He won’t have that time this weekend and will have the least amount of time he’s had all season.

Normally, I wouldn’t feel confident about backing a Carson Palmer-led team giving a touchdown in the playoffs since normally I wouldn’t trust Palmer to tell me what day of the week it is, but it’s different for Palmer now. Even though he might be a fraudulent quarterback at times, under Bruce Arians with weapons like Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and David Johnson, not even Palmer ruins the Cardinals’ chances this weekend or possibly any weekend for the rest of the season. The Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl unless Carson Palmer screws it up for them.

Seattle +2 over CAROLINA
After my time as an honorary 12 last season ended when Pete Carroll ruined the Super Bowl and gave the Patriots a championship, I swore I would never root for the Seahawks again (unless they played the Patriots in the Super Bowl). And even though I’m not necessarily rooting for them this weekend to win, I’m picking them because teams don’t win the way the Seahawks did last week and then not go on a run.

The Seahawks 10-9 win over the Vikings was completely undeserved. The Seahawks did nothing to make Blair Walsh miss a 27-yard field goal attempt. All they did before that was let Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense drive down the field from their own 39 to the Seahawks’ 17 before the missed try. The Seahawks’ offense for the game was a Doug Baldwin touchdown that came after a botched snap that led to his a ridiculous first-down conversion and big play for the Seahawks and a field goal that was the result of an Adrian Peterson fumble. The Vikings should be playing this weekend in Arizona.

The Seahawks seem to get the lucky bounces and big breaks that come along with being a good team. The parlay of events they had to hit in order to win the NFC Championship Game last year was incredible; the miraculous catch Jermaine Kearse made on their final drive in the Super Bowl would have been talked about forever if Marshawn Lynch is handed the ball on the goal line; the missed chip shot, which was six yards less than an extra point. Things seem to go the Seahawks’ way except for when their head coach makes the worst decision in the history of sports.

The Panthers were 15-1 this season, 8-0 at home, had a week off to get healthy and beat the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 6. The Panthers only being a two-point favorite at home given their season and success against the Seahawks on the road in the hardest place to play in the league is unusual. But I have never been a big fan of the Panthers this season even though they went 15-1, came within a touchdown of going undefeated and had eight wins by double digits. I still don’t know how a team with Ted Ginn Jr. and Jerricho Cotchery as their No. 1 and 2 receivers went 15-1, and have thought all along that would catch up with them at some point in the playoffs. Unfortunately, that point is now.

DENVER -9 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers shouldn’t have won last week against the Bengals, but like the Seahawks, they were given an enormous break. Between the Jeremy Hill fumble and the Bengals allowing Ben Roethlisberger to make his way down the field with his right shoulder in bad shape and then the 15-yard penalties on Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones, the Steelers were gifted a trip to the divisional round. But without Antonio Brown, their season is going to come to an end in Denver, and it would have even with Antonio Brown.

This is the Peyton Manning postseason. This should be Manning’s last games in the NFL and it would be perfect for him to go out as a Super Bowl champion after beating Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, Tom Brady and the Patriots and probably the Cardinals on his way to riding off into the sunset as a champion. With the Vikings eliminated, the Broncos are now my No. 1 rooting interest in the playoffs. Even though Peyton winning a second Super Bowl would tie him with Eli in the only category that Eli has him beat, it would mean he would have beat the Patriots again to get it, and that’s a fair trade.

Last week: 2-2-0
Season: 136-119-5

Blogs • Giants

Jan 15, 2016

Meeting the Mysterious Ben McAdoo

Here are four things I took away from Ben McAdoo’s first words as Giants head coach. For not seeing anyone else in this role for 12 years, it felt weird, so here’s to not having to do this again for another 12 years.

Prior to Ben McAdoo being introduced as the next head coach of the New York Football Giants, I had never heard him talk. Never. From watching him talk to Tom Coughlin or Eli Manning on the sidelines or talking into his headset during games, I tried to imagine what his voice sounds like, but until Friday, I never really thought about it. So when McAdoo said, “Thank you all for coming today,” it was the first time I had ever heard him talk.

McAdoo did a decent job in his first press conference and his first public setting as a head coach in the NFL. He could have had better opening remarks and could have answered some questions more honestly, and he certainly could have used a suit that fit, but overall it was your average introductory press conference for a head coach.

No one knows what to expect from McAdoo. He’s a mystery. If the Giants had made Steve Spagnuolo the head coach or gone outside the organization with Doug Marrone or Mike Smith or Lovie Smith, we would have some idea as to what to expect from the new Giants head coach. But with McAdoo, any guess or prediction is reasonable. The Giants could finish off the games in 2016 that they shouldn’t have lost in 2015. Or they could be the same postseason-less Giants of the last four years. Or they could be a complete disaster and we’re looking at a new head coach again for 2017. It’s all possible.

Here are four things I took away from McAdoo’s first words as Giants head coach. For not seeing anyone else in this role for the last 12 years, it certainly felt weird, so here’s to not having to do this again for another 12 years.

1. Thank You to You and You and You and You
After McAdoo thanked “you all” for coming today, he then went on to thank every person he has ever come in contact with in his life. His family, the people from his hometown, his former coaches, his former players, the guy who sold him his first bike as a kid, the barber who gave him his first haircut, the owners of the liquor store where he bought his first case of beer and every person who has ever held a door open for him entering a building.

Oddly enough, McAdoo didn’t thank Odell Beckham Jr. Without Beckham (well we saw what the Giants’ offense looks like without Beckham in Week 16 against Minnesota), McAdoo isn’t having this press conference. He’s probably no longer an offensive coordinator in the NFL. He’s probably back to being a quarterbacks coach or having some made up title at some college. Beckham is single-handedly responsible for the success of the Giants’ offense over the last two seasons. He should have thanked him first and maybe only thanked him.

2. The Four Keys
McAdoo talked about the keys to winning and the structure he will instill in the Giants, which were broken down into four categories. They are …

Strong leadership
Talented men and women
A positive working environment
Comprehensive structure and function

McAdoo does realize he’s coaching a football team and not serving as the Director of HR for a Fortune 500 company, right? I mean I understand No. 1 and to some extent No. 3, but what is with No. 2 and No. 4? It’s one thing to have “talented men and women” in the organization, but McAdoo won’t be coaching any women because there aren’t any women on the Giants. And “comprehensive structure and function” just sounds like some BS phrase a company uses in their company handbook or on some unnecessary paper you have to sign on your first day. Someone might want to remind McAdoo he is the head coach of the team and not the CEO or president.

3. The Coaching Staff
McAdoo dodged every question about who would be on his staff and frequently said the staff is “fluid” as if a group of football coaches were in liquid form. Sure, nothing is set in stone, but at the time of his press conference, there were obviously already decisions made. There was no need to hide any information if deals had already been made with staff members or returning staff members.

When asked if he will continue to call the plays, McAdoo wouldn’t say and cited “a competitive advantage for the opponent” if he were to say. Either McAdoo has no idea if he will call the plays or he thinks the Giants have a game this week because I’m not sure how saying who will call the plays would give any team a competitive advantage for the Giants’ next game which is in eight months. I mean this is about WHO is calling the plays and now WHAT the plays are. I hate to break it you McAdoo, but between now and training camp, he’s going to have make it known, who is calling the plays for the Giants. I just hope that simple fact doesn’t give the rest of the NFC East too much of an advantage.

4. Reloading Not Rebuilding
A main reason I wanted the Giants to make McAdoo the head coach and also why I thought they would is because even though the Giants were a 6-10 team, they could have easily been a 12-4 team if they handled the final minutes of six games differently. Ownership didn’t need to clean house when it came to the roster or staff, and they could have easily kept Tom Coughlin. But the most important thing with this team that could still be playing moving forward is continuity. The Giants are close. McAdoo clearly believes the same thing as he said, “We’re not looking to rebuild, we’re looking to reload and we’re going to start in a couple minutes.”

It must be weird to start a job on a Friday, especially on a Friday before a holiday/three-day weekend, but I respect McAdoo for getting to work right away. The Giants shouldn’t have missed the playoffs this season, their fourth straight season without reaching the postseason and if they miss them again in 2016, we’ll be having this same press conference for a new general manager next January.

Giants • Podcasts

Jan 14, 2016

Podcast: The Clem Report

The Barstool Sports New York blogger joined me to talk about the Tom Coughlin era and the decision to hire Ben McAdoo.

For the fourth straight season, the Giants aren’t in the playoffs. And for the first time in 12 seasons, the Giants have a new head coach. The Giants named Ben McAdoo as their successor to Tom Coughlin and Giants fans will have to get used to not seeing the familiar face that led the team on the sidelines since 2004.

The Clem Report of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about the end of the Tom Coughlin era, the second-half collapses over the last 12 years, the Super Bowl runs in 2007 and 2011, the decision to hire Ben McAdoo, what Giants fans should expect next season and which team to root for with the Giants not in the playoffs.

Podcasts • Rangers

Jan 11, 2016

Podcast: Brian Monzo

Mike Francesa’s producer joined me to talk about the Rangers, Giants and NFL playoffs

The last time the Rangers won back-to-back games was the weekend before Thanksgiving. That was a long time ago. The Rangers have slumped through nearly two months of the season and the idea of them winning the Metro again is now a pipe dream. It seems like we’re finally headed for the Rangers-Islanders postseason series fans have dreamed about for the last two years.

WFAN Mike’s On: Francesa on the FAN producer Brian Monzo joined me to talk about the Rangers at the halfway point of the season, what to make of Chris Kreider’s career, the improvement of Dylan McIlrath, why Ben McAdoo should be the Giants’ next head coach, gambling on the NFL playoffs, the Mets’ offseason and rescheduling his kid’s Christening for FrancesaCon.

Blogs

Jan 8, 2016

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

For the fourth straight season, the New York Football Giants aren’t part of the playoffs. It’s sad and depressing and just plain sucks. When I was downtown on Broadway watching the Giants’ parade roll by

For the fourth straight season, the New York Football Giants aren’t part of the playoffs. It’s sad and depressing and just plain sucks. When I was downtown on Broadway watching the Giants’ parade roll by through the Canyon of Heroes, I didn’t think nearly four years later I would be waiting for them to return to the playoffs. But here we are in January 2016 and Super Bowl XLVI feels like it happened forever ago.

The Redskins will represent the NFC East in the playoffs this year and for the second time since the Giants’ last playoff game with the Eagles and Cowboys also having won the division during the Giants’ four-year drought. The playoffs will once again go on without Eli Manning, but with Kirk Cousins and Teddy Bridgewater and Brian Hoyer and Alex Smith and A.J. McCarron. The playoffs will once again go on with the New York Football Giants.

The regular season was a success with a record of 134-117-5. Last season, the picks season came down to the Super Bowl, which I entered with a .500 record and finished one game under .500 after Pete Carroll’s costly decision that cost me my picks season, actual money, the Seahawks their second straight Super Bowl and ended the Patriots’ decade-long championship drought. No matter what happens over the final 11 games, this will have been a successful picks season. The only thing left to do is try and correctly pick every single postseason game.

HOUSTON +3 over Kansas City
The whole world is on the Chiefs and that’s part of the reason I’m picking the Texans. But the other reason I’m picking the Texans is that they have the best two players in the game on their team in DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt. Even if Hopkins having a big day relies on Brian Hoyer being able to be at least an average quarterback, I’m confident in the Texans at home against an Andy Reid playoff team that has been on too good of a run for Reid or the Chiefs or any team that was once upon a time 1-5.

I’m the least confident of all the games in this pick because I don’t trust the 9-7 Texans, who won a weak division, and because I wouldn’t trust Hoyer to tell me what time it is let alone to bank on having a good day. Wait a second? Why am I picking the Texans again?

CINCINNATI +3 over Pittsburgh
Two weeks ago, the Steelers played a must-win game against the Ravens, whose season ended in September, and they lost. They lost to Ryan Mallett in a game that would have cost them a chance to go to the postseason if not for the Jets putting together the most Jets performance of all time in Buffalo. So thanks to the Jets losing to the Bills and the Steelers barely getting past the Austin Davis Browns in Week 17, the Steelers are back in the postseason.

The Bengals might be the most complete team in the entire league, and that’s even with A.J. McCarron at quarterback over Andy Dalton because really how much of a drop off is there between the two? McCarron has eluded to the idea that he thinks he can have a Tom Brady-like career as a low-round draft pick that takes over for an injured quarterback and goes on an extended run and it’s not that far-fetched of an idea. He has the offensive pieces around him to beat the Steelers’ weak defense and he has the defense backing him to contain the Steelers’ high-powered passing game. McCarron won’t need to do anything spectacular to beat the Steelers, he just can’t ruin the game by thinking he needs to.

MINNESOTA +5.5 over Seattle
It was just a few weeks ago that the Seahawks went to Minnesota and embarrassed the Vikings. But in that game, the Vikings’ defense was missing four starters that will all play on Sunday.

Last season, I was an honorary 12 for the Super Bowl after being in attendance for the NFC Championship Game in Seattle, mainly because I wanted the Patriots to lose. And the Patriots should have lost, if not for Pete Carroll. But since that decision on the goal line in the Super Bowl, I have made a vow to against the Seahawks and root heavily against them and for the implosion of their team personnel, including Carroll and Russell Wilson. (That is unless they play the Patriots again in the Super Bowl.)

As I have said many times, my girlfriend is a Vikings fan (from Los Angeles), so it’s hard for me to not root for them. They have also covered for me more than any other team this season. With the Giants out of the playoffs, I’m now an honorary Viking. Let’s Go Vikings!

WASHINGTON -1 over Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers single-handedly cost me my first chance at a fantasy football championship and thousands (yes, thousands) of dollars. I didn’t like him before for his cockiness and his stubborn backing of fellow scummer Ryan Braun and I certainly don’t like him after he failed to improve my bank account. It pains me to root for an NFC East rival in the playoffs, but I have no choice.

Last week: 6-10-0
Season: 134-117-5

Author: Neil Keefe

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Meeting the Mysterious Ben McAdoo

Podcast: The Clem Report

Podcast: Brian Monzo

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks