1. The Aaron Boone Yankees have never won a postseason series against a team that finished higher in the standings than them, so I’m not sure why I thought this series would be different. I guess I thought it would be different because of Cam Schlittler, but the careless defense and disappearing offense in the postseason that have defined the Boone era Yankees were too much for even the best pitcher in the league to overcome.

2. After the Yankees’ “swing at everything” approach against Freddy Peralta led to an eight-pitch first inning (the Yankees’ 1-through-3 hitters swung at seven of the eight pitches) for the Rays’ starter, Schlittler took the mound with the 2024 World Series Game 5 defense behind him. Schlittler got Yandy Diaz to hit a second-pitch routine ground ball to third base and Ryan McMahon — solely in the lineup for his defense — booted it. Jonathan Aranda followed with a ground ball out of the reach of a diving McMahon, and three pitches into the game, the Rays had runners on first and second. Next up was the league leader in grounding into double plays in Junior Caminero. Schlittler got Caminero to hit a ground ball to short, George Lombard Jr. fed Jazz Chisholm for an out and Chisholm turned and wildly threw the ball past first base for an error as Diaz raced home to give the Rays a 1-0 lead.

When asked if Chisholm would do the same thing if given the chance, with an unaccountable textbook answer his manager probably loved, Chisholm said, “Honestly, I’d probably still throw it.”

Ten pitches into the game, the Yankees had committed two errors, allowed an unearned run and trailed.

Schlittler bounced back to strike out Liam Hicks on three pitches, but the third strike was overturned upon a Rays challenge for catcher’s interference, as Austin Wells’ glove was in the way of Hicks’ swing. Hicks was awarded first base on the Yankees’ third error in 13 pitches.

Chandler Simpson then hit a ground ball to Chisholm and Chisholm made another wild throw, this one wide of second, but Lombard Jr. was able to adjust and prevent the ball from ending up in left field. Victor Mesa ended the inning with a ground ball to Chisholm that the second baseman was able to throw accurately to first.

The defensive letdown didn’t end there. After Ben Rice provided the Yankees’ first run of the series in the fourth inning to tie the game at 1, the Yankees’ defense put the game away for the Rays in the fifth inning.

Aranda opened the inning with a line drive to right field. Spencer Jones hesitated and got a late break on it and the ball fell in front of him for a leadoff single. Boone grew angry after the game when asked if Jones should have caught the ball. Both Jones and Statcast say he should have caught it even though the manager felt differently. Caminero followed with a double in the right-center gap and the Rays were set up with runners on second and third and no outs.

Hicks was up next and Boone brought the infield in. Just not the entire infield. He decided to have Chisholm play back off the grass, and guess where Hicks hit the ball: to Chisholm. Because of the positioning, Chisholm was unable to make a play at the plate, as the Rays took a 2-1 lead and Caminero moved over to third. Simpson then put the ball in play as well with a grounder to short that Lombard Jr. tried to rush, and as a result, got no outs. Caminero scored and Simpson reached first. The play was initially ruled an error on Lombard Jr., but later changed to a fielder’s choice. But don’t worry, Lombard Jr. would get an error that would stand in the inning when he threw the ball away with two outs. His two misplays extended the inning, and eventually, the light-hitting Richie Palacios worked an eight-pitch, left-on-left at-bat against Brent Headrick to drive in two runs to put the game out of reach. The Rays were given five outs to work with in the first inning and six outs to work with in the fifth inning. All five of their runs in the game were a product of official errors or defensive miscues.

3. “Some good defenders that didn’t make a couple plays,” Boone said after the game.

Oh, that’s all? Just a couple plays. I thought a “couple” was two.

Boone gave the same kind of postgame answers he has given in seven of his eight previous seasons as Yankees manager with his team facing elimination.

“You’ve got to find out what you’re made of,” Boone said.

I think we know what they’re made of.

“It’s gut-check time,” Boone said.

Every time in the past eight seasons the Yankees had to check their gut under Boone, their season ended. Yeah, maybe a few times they prevented elimination for a game, but they were always eliminated.

4. The Yankees are now 9-24 in the postseason during the Boone era when facing a team that finished higher than them in the standings. They have never won a best-of-5 or best-of-7 series after losing the first game. And unless they win their next three games, that sad fact will still be true.

The Yankees have got one-hit in Game 1 and that one hit was erased by a disastrous baserunning decision. They had as many hits (four) as errors in Game 2. They have scored two runs in 18 innings in the series: both Ben Rice solo home runs. Rice and Wells are a combined 4-for-12 in the two games and the rest of the lineup is 1-for-46. The team as a whole has a .086/.145/.224 slash line.

It took Drew Rasmussen and Bryan Baker one-hitting the Yankees in Game 1 for the Rays to make their one run hold up. It took the Yankees committing three errors in an inning, four errors in a game and a few other miscues and misreads for the Rays to score any of their runs and win Game 2. But that’s the Rays’ brand of baseball. That’s who they are. They rely on playing clean baseball themselves and capitalizing when their opponent doesn’t. They don’t sit around and wait for home runs to save their offense. They put the ball in play, take the extra base when it’s given to them and they give away nothing. The Yankees wait around for the home run to save them, struggle to make contact and give away everything. It’s not just the 2026 Yankees. It’s the Yankees every season.

5. My kids have watched The Sandlot countless times, and therefore, so have I. At the end of the movie, grown-up Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez steals home as a Dodger and grown-up broadcaster Smalls goes wild on the call. Every time The Sandlot ends, “The Jet” is safe and Smalls goes wild. I don’t watch wondering if “The Jet” is going to be safe at home. The ending is always the same because it’s the same story with the same characters.

Like a movie, each season, the Yankees feature the same story and same cast: same general manager, same manager, same core players, same fundamental issues. Unlike a movie, every Yankees fan fails to accept that the ending will be the same.

Each season, the Yankees get off to a fast start and build up a division lead. Then summer hits, they play at the same level as the worst teams in baseball for a couple of months, while their oft-injured players get injured. They try to build a contending team on the fly at the deadline and patch up the roster deficiencies they ignored during the offseason, and then they spend the final weeks of the season trying to undo everything they undid during the summer. They end up in the postseason, and if they play an AL Central team, they advance, and if they play a non-AL Central team or a team that finished higher in the standings, they’re eliminated. Then they hold an end-of-the-season press conference to announce the return of the general manager and manager, and throughout the winter make it known they are bringing back the same roster (or close to it) from the previous season. Then they show up to spring training as if the previous year didn’t happen and act as if the upcoming season will end differently just because the winter separated the end of one season from the start of the next season. “The Jet” is never out at home and the Yankees never win the World Series.

6. Watching these Yankees every season is insane. It’s the definition of insanity. It’s what Brian Cashman said right before he traded Sonny Gray after the 2018 season: “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.” And yet, the Yankees continue to go through the same exercise every season during this era. Same manager, same type of players, and sure enough, same season-ending result. The Yankees believe next year luck will be on their side in the postseason and they will finally overcome the odds of the crapshoot they have considered the postseason to be ever since they stopped winning it. When the Yankees were the Yankees, the organization didn’t talk about the postseason as if it were a game of chance. It wasn’t until they stopped being the Yankees that the postseason became a tournament whose winner was lucky and nothing else.

7. If you’re using Tuesday to cite the 2001 Yankees or 2017 Yankees as to why the 2026 Yankees can reach the ALCS, don’t. Please. You’ve spent 166 games trying to talk yourself into why this time will be different, and it isn’t. It just isn’t. The 2001 team was coming off four championships in five seasons, and the 2017 team was led by a manager who was part of those championships. The 2026 team is led by someone who had six right-handed bats on his bench on Monday and only deployed one despite the Rays using left-handed relievers for 3 1/3 innings. (Not one reporter asked Boone about this either.) It’s led by someone who probably called his wife from the tarmac on Monday and asked her if she could check his office for his 2004 ALCS video because he needs it to motivate the team on Wednesday, like he unsuccessfully did in 2022. It’s led by someone who has never won anything as a player or manager. Someone who doesn’t know how to win in October, but talks and acts like he does.

8. “Winning the World Series is hard,” Boone said after last season. “Been chasing it my whole life.”

Boone wouldn’t know how hard it is to win the World Series because he has never won it. He never won as a player and has never won as a manager. All he has are two American League pennants. One came from his home run, which changed the course of history for the worst for the Yankees considering what the Red Sox have accomplished since Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS and because it led to Boone getting the job he still has. The other came against the easiest postseason field imaginable and was followed by a humiliating defeat in the World Series.

It’s unlikely Boone will ever stop chasing a championship. I can’t fathom a scenario where the Yankees win with him at the helm and no other self-respecting owner or general manager in the league with a ready-to-win roster would be foolish enough to hand the keys over to someone who has overseen such miserable disappointment. The idea that Boone is good at his job because of his regular-season winning percentage at a time when the majority of the league is tanking and pocketing profits or because he has made the postseason in seven of eight years at a time when 81-win teams are getting into the expanded format is comical.

9. Boone’s players believe they can do no wrong performance-wise because they constantly hear their manager and the rest of the organization talk about how great they are. It’s why Wells tried for third in Game 1 and why Chisholm would “do it again” when asked about his first-inning throw in Game 2. Cashman called the Yankees “pretty fucking good” after the team went 82-80 two years ago, so you can only imagine how he feels about the team with the highest payroll in the American League that couldn’t beat out the team with the third-lowest payroll in the majors for the division, but won 93 games.

Boone has created and fostered a culture comfortable with losing. His players recite the same tired lines they hear their manager use following losses. Everyone in the Yankees’ clubhouse talks about “tomorrow” like they’re auditioning for a part in Annie until there are no tomorrows. And now one loss away from their season ending early again, they are down to their last tomorrow.

10. Two days after the Yankees were eliminated by the Blue Jays in the ALDS last season, I wrote:

I fully expect the Yankees to “run it back” (as Aaron Judge mentioned he would like to do after Game 4) in 2026 with close to the same roster, the same failed organizational philosophies and certainly the same manager. And I fully expect another early postseason exit a year from now.

And here we are. The 2025 ALDS roster of position players was the same set of names as the 2026 Opening Day roster, just like The Captain ordered. Same roster, same failed organizational philosophies, and of course, the same manager. And now the same result: unable to beat a team they couldn’t beat for the division in the regular season and going home on the brink of elimination for Game 3. As expected, another early postseason exit a year later is right in front of them and only three straight wins will prevent it.

1. After wallowing in the result of Game 1 on Sunday, I’m ready for Game 2, and I know Cam Schlittler will be as well. The Yankees have the best pitcher in the league going on an extra day’s rest in the biggest game of the season to save their season. If the Yankees can’t win Schlittler’s starts in this series, then nothing else matters. They have to win both of his starts (Games 2 and 5) and one other game (Game 3 since Drew Rasmussen will pitch Game 4) in order to win the series.

2. Schlittler faced the Rays three times this season: April 12 in Tampa, July 6 in Tampa and September 24 in New York. The April 12 and July 6 starts are the only meaningful starts, though, since the September 24 start came after both teams had clinched their playoff positions, with Schlittler just going through the motions and trying to get through his last start of the season without getting hurt. Here are the two starts that mattered:

April 12: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

July 6: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Schlittler was OK in the first start (his fourth of the season) and then was the version of him we have come to know over the last six months in the second start. If he were to provide the April 12 start in Game 2 on Monday, I don’t know that the Yankees will win. If he were to provide the July 6 start in Game 2 on Monday, the series will likely be tied. If he’s somewhere in between the two performances, the series will likely be tied.

3. I know Schlittler will pitch well in Game 2. I don’t know that the offense will show up.

The real postseason is the ALDS and beyond. The Wild Card Series is a gimmicky money grab for the owners to get an extra eight to 12 postseason games for revenue. (The Red Sox reached the postseason because of a miraculous five-week run in the middle of the summer, and the Astros reached the postseason with the lowest win total for a postseason team in history because they play in the AL Central, and both teams were easily and quickly eliminated.) It’s no surprise that when the “real” postseason began on Saturday, the real Yankees showed up. The Yankees who can’t hit elite starting pitching, can’t make contact, can’t put the ball in play and produce mostly pathetic at-bats in losing efforts. The offense we have seen eventually get eliminated in every postseason in the Aaron Boone era.

4. What took place on Saturday gave me flashbacks to Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS last year when Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage mowed down left-handed-heavy Yankees lineups with breaking pitches moving away from batters. It was too easy. Rasmussen did the same thing over and over and over to each Yankees batter with the exception of the lone right-handed bat in George Lombard Jr., and unsurprisingly, Lombard Jr. had the best at-bats of the game against Rasmussen. The eight left-handed Yankees didn’t make Rasmussen work, didn’t challenge him and never had him in a jam or on the ropes. It was embarrassing.

5. Freddy Peralta isn’t Rasmussen, but Peralta also isn’t the pitcher he was with the Mets this season either. Peralta had a 4.99 ERA, 1.478 WHIP and 4.46 FIP over 22 starts with the Mets. He had a 3.25 ERA, 1.012 WHIP and 3.93 FIP over 10 starts with the Rays. The Rays told Peralta to work out of the stretch and stop throwing so many fastballs. He listened and the results followed.

Peralta doesn’t provide length. He went five innings against the Yankees in May (and allowed three earned runs). He went five innings against the Yankees on Opening Day 2025 (and allowed two earned runs). Peralta’s ceiling for Game 2 should be five innings. If he gives the Rays anything more than that, then it means the Yankees’ Game 1 offense showed up for Game 2, and the Yankees will be in a world of shit.

6. I wouldn’t use the Game 1 lineup in Game 2. The Rays are going to have the same game plan with Peralta for an all-lefty lineup that they had with Rasmussen: elevated fastballs and breaking balls that will move toward the right-handed batter’s box. (Just like Gausman and Yesavage.) Either the left-handed Yankees change their approach (unlikely to happen based on hundreds of games and tens of thousands of plate appearances) or they change their lineup.

I provided each Yankee’s career numbers against Rasmussen before Game 1, and they were all bad, and they all got worse. Their numbers against Peralta are much better:

Ben Rice: 2-for-5, HR, K
Cody Bellinger: 6-for-14, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Luis Garcia: 3-for-12, 2 2B, 3 K
Spencer Jones: 0-for-2, 2 K
George Lombard Jr.: Has never faced Peralta
Jazz Chisholm: 2-for-11, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Trent Grisham: 1-for-8, 2B, 3 K
Austin Wells: 1-for-2, HR, BB, K
Ryan McMahon: 1-for-14, 3 BB, 4 K

Paul Goldschmidt: 9-for-35, 5 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 10 K
Anthony Volpe: 2-for-4, 2B, HR, 2 K
Heliot Ramos: 1-for-4, BB, K
Jose Caballero: 0-for-2, 2K
Giancarlo Stanton: Has never faced Peralta
Ali Sanchez: Has never faced Peralta

You could argue Goldschmidt should play given the number of times he has seen Peralta, but most of that was a younger Goldschmidt from his National League days. I would stay with Garcia and save Goldschmidt for a possible pinch-hit opportunity.

I would love to get Grisham out of the lineup, but that would mean Ramos playing the outfield, and for as untrustworthy as Grisham is, Ramos takes the meaning of untrustworthy to another level. I would be OK with Caballero playing the outfield, but I don’t think Boone will remove one of his favorites in Grisham.

McMahon can’t play. It’s not because of his lack of success against Peralta, but that lack of success reinforces the argument to sit him. So then it becomes a choice between playing Volpe, who has had success against Peralta, but has played one major-league game at third base, or Caballero, who has struck out in both plate appearances against Peralta, but has sufficient third-base experience. (Ex-Ray Caballero does have a penchant for big moments against his former team.)

There are a few possible moves to be made. At least one of them needs to be made. I can’t see the Game 1 lineup in Game 2.

7. This is what I wrote about the pitching matchup in Game 1:

The Yankees can’t be playing from behind by multiple runs against this Rays team, especially in a Rasmussen start. Cole doesn’t have to be great for long. He just needs to be great for as long as he’s in the game.

Change Rasmussen to Schlittler and Cole to Peralta, and the game plan for Game 1 for the Yankees is the game plan for Game 2 for the Rays. Unless the Rays are going to hit Schlittler in a way he hasn’t been hit in his career, the Rays’ goal will be to drive up his pitch count. They were sort of able to do so in April, but weren’t able to do so in July. The Rays’ bullpen hasn’t had to pitch with anything on the line in nearly two weeks, so it is well-rested and will be part of the game the moment Peralta gets into trouble, if he gets into trouble.

8. This game is on the Yankees’ offense. We know Schlittler will pitch well enough for them to win. But Schlittler took a no-decision or loss 15 times this season when he pitched long enough to qualify for a win and allowed three earned runs or fewer. The offense can’t be trusted, and I don’t trust them. I don’t think it will surprise anyone if Peralta is working on a no-hitter in the fifth inning or if Schlittler comes out of the game in the seventh having not allowed a run and the Yankees aren’t winning. It’s great that the Yankees worked out at their own complex on Sunday and used their Trajekt machine to prepare for Peralta and Game 2. But they had seen Rasmussen four times this season and had access to the Trajekt all year and before Game 1 and it did them no good. The only thing that matters on Monday are tangible results on the field and the most tangible of all: a Game 2 win.

9. From 2018-2025, the Boone Yankees have lost Game 1 of a best-of-5 or best-of-7 series four times and have lost all four series. They are 3-14 in games in those series. They have never won a best-of-5 or best-of-7 series against a non-AL Central team and are 0-6 in such series. They are going to have to do something they have never done in the previous eight years to overcome their current ALDS deficit.

10. I expect the Yankees to even the series on Monday, and I expect the series to go to the Bronx with the Yankees having home-field advantage in what will become a best-of-3. I expect this simply because I expect Schlittler to be great because he is great and has delivered in his three career postseason starts to date. But he can’t do it alone. He will need the offense to do much more than it did on Saturday, which was nothing. As long as the offense just sucks and isn’t historically bad, the series will be tied and the Yankees will avoid facing elimination.

1. The last meaningful game the Yankees and Rays played during the regular season foreshadowed what unfolded on Saturday. On September 22, Drew Rasmussen no-hit the Yankees until the seventh inning in the win that clinched the Rays the division and on Saturday, Rasmussen no-hit the Yankees into the eighth inning in a win that gave the Rays a 1-0 series lead in the ALDS.

2. The Yankees went 1-for-24 with two walks and 10 strikeouts against Rasmussen. Rasmussen does to the Yankees what Cam Schlittler does to the Red Sox, and if not for the Yankees getting to him in July, I would say what he does to them is even more impressive than what Schlittler does to the Red Sox (and even with that July start, it still might be).

3. It was a bad game. It was both frustrating and miserable to watch. The Yankees had one hit in the game on an Austin Wells double with two outs in the eighth, and Wells was immediately erased by idiotically trying to stretch an easy stand-up double into a triple.

“I felt like if I got to third there, I was almost guaranteeing that if we got another ball on the turf there, we were going to score a run and tie the game,” Wells said.

I have no idea what that means. Wells believes if he got to third then the next batter would have put the ball in play on the turf and that would have led to a run? Not a groundout?

4. “I was committed to being [at third] and thought I had a good chance to get there,” Wells said, despite being thrown out by 10 feet.

“I think you have to take risks,” Wells said, “but in that situation, obviously the risk was wrong.”

I believe Wells forgot how many outs there were, which wouldn’t be the first time he has done so. Because there was no value in getting to third there. The only reason standing on third there makes a difference is if the following plate appearance includes a wild pitch or passed ball, or if there is an infield single. The risk greatly outweighed the reward and it was a foolish mistake for a player who has two triples in 1,414 plate appearances as a major leaguer (regular season and postseason). Based on that, there was a 0.14 percent chance of him hitting a triple.

5. I don’t think it would have mattered if Wells had stopped at second or somehow made it to third. Does anyone think the next hitter, whether it was Ryan McMahon or a pinch hitter, would have come through? Either Rasmussen would have easily retired the next batter or Kevin Cash would have gone to Bryan Baker to retire the batter. It likely wouldn’t have mattered with the way those two looked in Game 1, but I sure would have liked to find out.

6. TBS showed that it was the first time in Yankees history that the team was no-hit through six innings, so it was also the first time they were no-hit for seven innings and for 7 2/3 innings. It was a dismal offensive performance for a lineup featuring eight left-handed bats against Rasmussen. But maybe that’s part of it. Rasmussen was able to stay with what was working for every hitter other than George Lombard Jr., and unsurprisingly, Lombard Jr. had the best at-bats against Rasmussen of the game. It was too reminiscent of the Yankees’ approach and performance against righties Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavages in the first two games of the ALDS last year.

7. I advocated for Carlos Rodon to start Game 1, but understood why he was held back to start either Game 3 or 4. The Game 1 loss wasn’t on Gerrit Cole, who has a penchant for not performing in the postseason unless there aren’t fans allowed at the game or unless he’s facing an AL Central opponent. Cole pitched fine. One earned run (on a solo home run, of course) over five innings was fine. But it’s not like he was dealing outside of one Jonathan Aranda swing. He gave up two balls off the wall and only had one 1-2-3 inning in his outing.

8. Before Game 1, I wrote the following:

The Yankees could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series.

This still holds true. The Rays had to win Game 1. If they lost Game 1, they could potentially be swept. They have to win the Rasmussen starts and one more start, just like the Yankees have to win the Schlittler starts and one more game.

I believe that many more things have to go right for the Rays to win three games than need to go right for the Yankees to win three games.

I still believe this.

The Rays are going to get good-to-great starting pitching and superb managing and will play exceptional defense.

They got the great starting pitching and superb managing and played flawless defense.

But they have to win the Rasmussen starts and win one of the non-Rasmussen starts and get production from their Big 3 at the top of the order and get shutdown performances from their bullpen.

They won the first Rasmussen start, the only run of the game came from their Big 3 and Baker — the only reliever to appear in the game — was unhittable in the ninth.

9. I also wrote:

The Yankees could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series.

The Rays need to win both Rasmussen starts (Game 1 and Game 4) and one other game. The Yankees need to win both Cam Schlittler starts (Game 2 and Game 5) and one other game. That one other game for both teams is Game 3. The Yankees have to win Game 2 and Game 3. Rasmussen will pitch for a second time in the series (Game 4) before Schlittler does (Game 5). The Yankees can’t go into Rasmussen’s next start down 2-1 in the series.

10. If the Yankees lose on Saturday, that will be a wrap on the series. This isn’t going to be like 2001 or 2017 where the Yankees came back down 2-0 in the ALDS. Not with Rasmussen waiting. He’s their kryptonite, just like Cliff Lee was with the Phillies and Rangers against the Yankees. As a fan, you have to plan to lose Rasmussen’s starts, and because of that, the Yankees now have to win the next two games. In order to win the next two games, the Yankees will need to win the next game first. And in the most important game of the season, they have the best pitcher in the league going, and I believe he will send the series to the Bronx tied at 1.

1. This is the best I have felt about the Yankees in 2026. Coming off the two-game destruction of the entire Red Sox’ organization, the Yankees are flying high with the ALDS set to begin, and I’m flying equally as high. Who needs alcohol or drugs when your favorite baseball team beats the absolute shit out of your least favorite baseball team?

But when Drew Rasmussen throws the first pitch of the ALDS to Ben Rice on Saturday night at Tropicana Field, I will immediately be grounded. I’m already on my way back down like the hysterical Uncle Albert floating to the floor in Mary Poppins. Because while basking in the blowout of the Red Sox and the misery-fueled aftermath for their fans, I recognize the Rays are not the Red Sox.

2. The Rays don’t boast a punchless lineup or a manager that makes me appreciate Aaron Boone. They got to sit at home this week and watch the Yankees put their season on the line and force their best two starters to make an extra start for a reason. The Rays had the best record in the American League for a reason. The Rays earned their bye to the ALDS and home-field advantage in the AL playoffs for as long as they are alive in the playoffs. They held off the Yankees from June 28 through Game 162. Each time the Yankees made a play to overtake them, the Rays answered with lengthy winning streaks.

3. Cam Schlittler against the Red Sox is what the Rays’ Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen has been against the Yankees in his career. This is Rasmussen’s career line against the Yankees: 59.2 IP, 38 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 13 BB, 70 K, 3 HR, 1.81 ERA, 0.855 WHIP. He has held the Yankees to a .180/.228/.246 slash line in his career.

The good news is the Yankees did beat Rasmussen up at the Trop (where Game 1 will be played) on July 9: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR.

The bad news is that in his other three starts against the Yankees this season, Rasmussen pitched to this line: 19.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 24 K. 

Rasmussen blanked the Yankees for six innings (and allowed one baserunner) in Tampa in April. He shut them out for seven innings in the Bronx in May. He got lit up by them at the Trop in July and then one-hit them for 6 2/3 innings (with 11 strikeouts) in September. He’s the single-worst possible pitcher for the Yankees to face in the league and they will have to face him in Game 1 and then again in Game 4 (if there is a Game 4).

4. Here are the Yankees’ individual numbers against Rasmussen:

Ben Rice: 1-for-16, HR, 7 K
Cody Bellinger: 4-for-17, 2 BB, 2 K
Luis Garcia: 0-for-6, K
Spencer Jones: 0-for-3, 2 K
George Lombard Jr.: 0-for-2, K
Jazz Chisholm: 2-for-14, 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
Trent Grisham: 6-for-16, HR, 4 K
Austin Wells: 1-for-8, HR, BB, K
Ryan McMahon: 1-for-10, 2B, BB, 7 K

Aaron Judge: 2-for-16, 2 BB, 8 K
Anthony Volpe: 0-for-11, BB, 7 K
Paul Goldschmidt: 2-for-9, 2 BB, 4 K
Jose Caballero: 1-for-6, 2 K
Giancarlo Stanton: 2-for-4
Heliot Ramos: 1-for-3, 2B, K
Amed Rosario: 0-for-2
Ali Sanchez: Has never faced Rasmussen

Outside of Grisham, it’s bad pretty much all around. That doesn’t mean he’s unhittable. Entering Game 2 of the 2017 ALDS and facing Corey Kluber, the Yankees’ roster was a collective 23-for-148 with eight walks, 44 strikeouts and a .155/.204/.250 slash line against Kluber for their careers. They chased him in the third inning in that game (2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR) and then chased him in the fourth inning five days later (3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 2 HR) to win the series. No, I don’t feel good about the Yankees having to face Rasmussen on Saturday and possibly twice within the next week, but it doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t beat him.

5. The postseason is different. In Rasmussen’s only postseason start (as a Ray back in 2021), he was pulled before recording an out in the third inning at Fenway Park. He faced 11 batters and six of them reached as he lasted only 33 pitches. Five years is an eternity in baseball and Rasmussen is now a seasoned veteran and an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He was very good back then too (2.44 ERA in 10 starts and 20 games with the Rays that year), but he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball now.

Because Schlittler likely won’t pitch in the games Rasmussen starts (unless the Rays hold him back for Game 5), Rasmussen’s starts represent the only time the time(s) the Rays will have the starting pitching advantage in the series. If the Yankees win when Rasmussen starts, it will be nearly impossible for the Rays to win the series because it will mean having to win all of Schlittler’s starts. If the Yankees win Game 1, the path to a series win for the Rays becomes incredibly difficult to envision.

Unless the Yankees are going to beat up Rasmussen on Saturday like they did in July (and that’s impossible to expect), the way to beat him is the plan the Red Sox’ unsuccessfully attempted against Schlittler in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series: keep it close until he’s out of the game.

Rasmussen averaged just under six innings in his 30 starts this season, but he never pitched more than seven innings. His season-high for pitches was 114, which he threw in his final start of the season in the division-clinching game at Yankee Stadium on September 22. He will start Game 1 of the ALDS on 10 days’ rest. It’s possible there’s some rust initially after having not pitched in a third of a month, or it’s possible he’s so rested that he comes out dotting the corners and racking up strikeouts.

6. However Rasmussen comes out (whether rusty or dominant), Gerrit Cole needs to match him. That’s a lot to ask, considering Cole is pitching as poorly as he ever has a Yankee. The only other time Cole looked this bad was in the final month of 2021. That month-long slog foreshadowed his 2021 one-game playoff performance at Fenway Park, in which he lost the game after four batters. If Cole pitches on Saturday like he did in September, the Yankees will be down 1-0 in the series.

Thanks to the day off between Games 1 and 2 and with Schlittler going in Game 2, Cole doesn’t need to give the Yankees length. If he empties the tank and only gives the Yankees five spectacular innings (or even four), he will have done his job. The Yankees’ bullpen is well-rested. It had one high-leverage plate appearance in the Wild Card Series and Paul Blackburn induced a double play in it. The bullpen is so rested that Aaron Boone had to use his high-end relievers in a Game 2 blowout just to get them work in. The bullpen can cover as many innings as needed. They just can’t help if a game is ruined early.

7. And that’s what I’m most worried about with Cole: ruining the game early. Allowing a crooked number in the first or second inning can’t happen. The Yankees can’t be playing from behind by multiple runs against this Rays team, especially in a Rasmussen start. Cole doesn’t have to be great for long. He just needs to be great for as long as he’s in the game. I don’t expect him to have the kind of start Schlittler or Fried had against the Red Sox because I don’t expect much from this version of Cole or postseason Cole. I recognize his overall postseason career numbers are strong, but as a Yankee, when there have been fans in the stands or the opposition hasn’t been an AL Central team, he hasn’t been very good.

8. The games at the Trop won’t feel like road games because the crowd will be mostly Yankees fans. The Rays are opening the upper deck for the series due to ticket demand and that demand is coming from Yankees fans. It’s going to sound like Yankee Stadium inside the Trop on Saturday and Monday (and possibly next Saturday too). But the turf, the oddities of the field and roof and everything that comes with the 36-year-old dome will favor the Rays.

9. If the Yankees play clean baseball, they will win the series. They could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series. I believe that many more things have to go right for the Rays to win three games than need to go right for the Yankees to win three games. The Rays are going to get good-to-great starting pitching and superb managing and will play exceptional defense. But they have to win the Rasmussen starts and win one of the non-Rasmussen starts and get production from their Big 3 at the top of the order and get shutdown performances from their bullpen. (The Red Sox went in to the Wild Card Series with the No. 1 bullpen in the majors in 2026 and the Yankees scored 15 runs against it in 6 2/3 innings. The Rays had the 14th-best bullpen in the majors this season.)

10. The Yankees own the better rotation, the better lineup, the better bullpen and more power (they finished second in the majors in home runs by three without Judge and Stanton, while the Rays finished 22nd). The Rays have the edge in defense, manager and home-field advantage in terms of the actual field and not the crowd. Because of the slop in the AL Central side of the AL bracket, whichever team wins this series is not only going to the ALCS, but to the World Series. That team should be the Yankees, and if they can win Game 1 on Saturday, it will be the Yankees.