1. I thought it was gone. I think most people did. When the ball left Ceddanne Rafaela’s bat on an 0-2 pitch from David Bednar in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, it looked like the game would improbably be tied at 4. But Aaron Judge raced back to the warning track, paused and waited for the ball in what turned out to be nothing more than a game-ending out. Ballgame over, Yankees win, season saved … for a day.
The Yankees were successful in staving off elimination for the first time this postseason not necessarily because of what they did, but because of what the Red Sox didn’t do. Brayan Bello failed to to erase a sluggish finish to the season by continuing to be bad; Jarren Duran slid for a ball off the bat of Judge that he didn’t need to slide for to give the Yankees a temporary lead; Rafaela popped up a bunt to the mound with runners on first and second and no outs in the seventh and Nate Eaton didn’t race home to give the Rd Sox the lead when Jazz Chisholm tried to make a hero play on an infield single. The Yankees tried to give the Red Sox the game. They did everything they could to do so and were fortunate to win and keep their season alive.
2. There’s nothing Carlos Rodon hates more than an early lead and after Ben Rice hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the first, Rodon gave up a single to Duran to lead off the third and then walked Rafaela. Rafaela had the fifth-worst walk rate in the league this season and yet it was his 11-pitch walk against Luke Weaver that changed Game 1 and it was his walk against Rodon in the third inning that eventually led to two runs to tie the game.
When the Yankees took the lead in the fifth on the ball Duran unnecessarily slid for, Rodon gave it right back on the third pitch of the next inning, a 2-0, middle-middle fastball that Trevor Story crushed over the left-field wall. I figured Aaron Boone would take Rodon out then, but Boone let Rodon face Alex Bregman and Rodon walked him on four pitches. OK, now Boone would take him out, right? Nope. Boone went to the mound and left the mound without Rodon. Rodon rewarded him by getting out of the inning.
3. Boone is a reactionary manager. He took so much heat and will continue to do so if the Yankees don’t win this series for removing Max Fried in Game 1 that he wasn’t going to remove Rodon in Game 2. This is what he does. He tries to make up for a mistake by doing the inverse even if the inverse isn’t the right decision. That’s why Boone let Rodon go back out for the seventh. And Rodon walked Eaton on four pitches and still got to stay in the game. He then fell behind Duran 3-0 before drilling him. Had the ball not hit hit Duran, it would have been ball 4 to the backstop and Eaton would have been on third with no outs.
Finally, Boone took the ball from Rodon in favor of Fernando Cruz. After fouling the first pitch off on a bunt attempt, Rafaela tried to bunt again and popped it up right back to Cruz. Thank you for the free out, Cora! Nick Sogard followed with a flyout to left. Game 1 pinch-hit hero Masataka Yoshida then came up and hit a 3-2 pitch up the middle that Chisholm laid out for and gloved. There was no way Chisholm was going to get Yoshida at first to end the inning, but in typical Yankees’ middle-infield fashion, he tried. Chisholm threw a hopper to Ben Rice that Rice couldn’t handle, but thankfully Eaton stayed at third. If Eaton had run home as soon as Chisholm throws the ball to first, he scores. Even if Rice fields it cleanly, he scores. But Eaton did the Yankees a favor by staying put and Cruz got Story to fly out to the deepest part of the park with the bases loaded to end the seventh. After getting the last out of the inning, Cruz went wild, and did every process of transforming into the Hulk except for turning green. To Red Sox fans and anyone watching who doesn’t watch the Yankees throughout the season, they were likely astonished at his reaction, but he has acted like that all season. He’s a 35-year-old reliever who didn’t make the majors until he was 32 and finally became an elite arm this year. He can do whatever he wants.
After Cruz got out of the seventh, the Yankees stranded a one-out double from Trent Grisham. Devin Williams worked around a leadoff single by Bregman in the top of the eighth and the Yankees took the lead in the bottom of the eighth. Chisholm worked a two-out, seven-pitch walk off of former Yankees prospect Garrett Whitlock and came around to score on an Austin Wells single just inside the right-field line. If Wells had hit that same ball at any time in the at-bat other than on a 3-2 pitch, Chisholm doesn’t score on the play. Thankfully, he did.
The Yankees loaded the bases against Whitlock before he was removed for rookie lefty Payton Tolle. With Grisham up, I would have removed Grisham and pinch hit with Jose Caballero. Scoring again was much more important than having Grisham in center field in the ninth when you could move Bellinger over to center and have Caballero play left. Grisham can’t hit lefties and he didn’t again, grounding out against Tolle. Cora knew Boone would value having Grisham in center in the ninth rather than scoring again and knew he wouldn’t have to worry about Boone using a righty bat once Tolle came into the game.
After falling behind Wilyer Abreu 2-0 and then going to 3-2 to begin the ninth, Bednar blew away Abreu with a 97-mph fastball. Bednar then went full again against Duran before striking him out looking with a 98-mph fastball on the inside corner. Bednar got ahead of Rafaela 0-2 and then Rafaela put a drive into the ball I thought was gone (and I think most people did) before Judge put it away to end the game.
4. For once, an ex-Yankee-tuned-Red Sox helped the Yankees to a postseason win. In 2018, the ex-Yankee trio of Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce and Eduardo Nunez helped end the Yankees’ season and lead the Red Sox to a championship. Eovaldi was an awful Yankee, capable of throwing triple digits and incapable of striking anyone out. Nunez was supposed to the heir at short to Derek Jeter and the Yankees wouldn’t part with Nunez for Cliff Lee in 2010 because of that only to eventually release Nunez in 2014 to keep Yangervis Solarte out of spring training. Pearce had 30 plate appearances for the 2012 Yankees and hit .160/.300/.280. Eovaldi pitched the Red Sox to an ALDS Game 3 win over the Yankees in 2018 and became a World Series hero against the Dodgers. Nunez made an unbelievable play to save Game 4 in the ninth inning in the ALDS (a play he never would have made as a Yankee) and hit a huge home run in the World Series. Pearce was named World Series MVP.
But finally, on Wednesday, Whitlock — a pitcher the Yankees didn’t protect in the 2020 Rule 5 draft so they could protect Nick Nelson and Brooks Kriske — came through for the Yankees by walking Chisholm with two outs in the eighth. Through Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees had been 11-4 against the Red Sox in postseason history. But from Game 4 of the 2024 ALCS through Tuesday’s Game 1, the Red Sox had gone 9-1 against the Yankees. Maybe that walk will be the turning point in righting the postseason rivalry in favor of the Yankees. It was a walk — Kevin Millar against Mariano Rivera — that started that 9-1 run, so maybe it’s a walk that starts a Yankees-favored future.
5. No one knows what to expect in Game 3. I think everyone knew Fried and Garrett Crochet would provide ace-like performances in Game 1 and they did. I think Yankees fans knew Rodon wouldn’t put the team on his back and pitch them to a season-saving win in Game 1 and he didn’t, and I think Red Sox feared Bello’s bad September would carry over into October and it did. In Game 3, you’re getting a 24-year-old rookie starter for the Yankees with 14 career starts going against a 23-year-old rookie starter for the Red Sox with four career starts. They could both poop their pants in the first inning and this could become a bullpen game, or they could both show the impressive dominance they possess and why they are in the spot they are to start a win-or-go-home playoff game at this stage of their career.
Schlittler will be the first right-handed starter the Red Sox have faced in the series, so that means a lineup we haven’t seen yet from the Red Sox. With Early being a lefty, it makes things interesting for the Yankees and Boone will do with his lineup.
6. As I wrote earlier, Boone is reactionary. He had to deal with a shitstorm for pulling Fried on Tuesday, so he let Rodon go too long on Wednesday and it nearly ended their season. He had to steal with the shitstorm of not playing Rice and Chisholm on Tuesday, so I guarantee you both will be in the lineup on Thursday. I would put out the ‘A’ lineup with the only change being Amed Rosario for Ryan MacMahon. I would use righty-lefty alternation throughout to avoid giving Cora perfect lanes for his relievers if Early doesn’t go long.
Trent Grisham, CF
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, LF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Ben Rice, 1B
Amed Rosario, 3B
Jazz Chishom, 2B
Anthony Volpe, SS
Austin Wells, C
The only back-to-back lefties in that lineup are Wells to Grisham, but there’s a chance Early never gets to that part of the order. Either he’s dominant and gets to stay in or he starts off like Bello and Cora removes him immediately. Cora only let Bello throw 28 pitches and if he had thrown more, the Yankees may have exploded and put the game away early. Cora will have an even quicker hook in Game 3 than he did in Game 2 (and 28 pitches is as quick as it gets) because the season is on the line and it wasn’t for the Red Sox yesterday and he still removed Bello in the second. Boone will have to have an equally quick hook with Schlittler if things aren’t going well.
Boone’s plan for every game is laid out in his brain well before the game, and if he has to deviate from the plan, he doesn’t know what to do. We saw it in Game 1. His plan was to get exactly what he got from Fried and then go Weaver to Williams to Bednar to end the game. Once Weaver fucked it up, Boone wasn’t sure what to do, so he stayed with the plan even with the Yankees trailing.
If the Yankees had taken the lead in Game 2 earlier than the bottom of the eighth, it’s likely Boone would have screwed it up . But because they scored so late in the game and there was just one inning of outs to get, he was able to go to Bednar and not have to think. For the Yankees to win, they need Boone to not have to think because is he has to, he will make the wrong decision nearly every time. Boone would lose the lottery if you gave him the winning numbers.
7. Because Boone used his best relievers in Game 162 on Sunday (when he didn’t need to since the Blue Jays were routing the Rays by the time the Yankees’ late innings began), Cruz, Williams and Bednar have now all pitched three times in the last four days. Here are their pitch counts each day. Weaver threw on Sunday and Tuesday, but not Wednesday. I don’t think there’s any Yankees fan who wants to see Weaver in Game 3, but it’s high likely he will be in there unless Schlittler goes out gives six or seven innings.
Even if Schlittler does go out and give six innings, there will still be nine outs to get. In theory you could go Cruz, Williams Bednar and I think thats what the Boone would do, but the Red Sox have now seen these three multiple times in a short span. They have seen everything they have to offer.
Cruz has faced Story twice, Bregman twice, Rafaela twice, Sogard twice and Yoshida twice. I would be hesitant to let Cruz face any of them a third time.
Williams has faced Narvaez twice, Abreu, Duran, Rafaela, Bregman and Nathaniel Lowe.
Bednar has faced Sogard, Yoshida, Story, Bregman, Lowe, Abreu, Duran and Rafaela. He has faced nearly the entire Red Sox’ lineup once.
Cruz’s splitter, Williams changeup and Bednar’s curveball/fastball mix will undoubtedly have less effect in Game 3 than they did in Game 1 or Game 2. That’s what happens with relievers in short series. They get fatigued and hitters know their release points and pitches. Go look at the quotes from Yankees relievers following the 2019 ALCS when they couldn’t get any length out of their starters and the Astros started to hit Chad Green, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Aroldis Chapman as the series went on. They all mentioned being fatigued in that series loss.
Weaver is going to pitch in Game 3. Tim Hill or Mark Leiter Jr. could appear Everything is on the table, including getting outs from Camilo Doval. The easiest path to a win and advancing is for Schlittler to go out and throw the ball like he did in his last two starts of the season, both against the Orioles. (12.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 15 K, 1 HR). The difference is the Orioles had nothing to play for in those games and are home for a reason, while the Red Sox have everything to play for on Thursday to avoid going home.
I don’t like the Yankees having to face a lefty, especially one that has 29 strikeouts to just four walks and no home runs allowed in his first 19 1/3 career innings, considering the Yankees offense lives off of walks and home runs. Yes, three of Early’s four starts came against the A’s (twice) and Rays, but he pitched well against the Tigers on Saturday (5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7K) when the Tigers still hadn’t clinched a postseason berth.
8. The one thing that gives me optimism in the offense is that Judge, Bellinger and Stanton haven’t done anything yet. Sure, Judge has four singles and Bellinger has a pair of singles as well, but the trio has combined for zero extra-base hits. Stanton doesn’t even have a hit yet. The longer the Yankees go in the postseason without those three hitting the ball in the gap or over the fence, the more optimistic I become about the Yankees’ chances this October. Especially, Bellinger and Stanton. Those two have come up in enormous spots in the first two games of this series and have failed each time. Bellinger and Stanton in the first inning in Game 1. Stanton in the ninth inning in Game 1. Bellinger in the third inning in Game 2. Stanton in the sixth inning in Game 2. Bellinger in the seventh inning in Game 2. The biggest moments in both games have found the duo and each time they haven’t done anything. I really believe that will change in Game 3. If it does, the Yankees will be guaranteed to play on Saturday in Toronto. If it doesn’t, someone else will have to do it.
9. I truly think Judge will have his signature postseason if the Yankees’ season continues past Game 3. In past postseasons, Judge has looked lost from his first at-bat. He has only hit singles in this series, but he got one each off of Crochet, Chapman and Bello — three household names. He’s been on base four times in eight plate appearances and has only struck out twice against top-tier arms. If the monster hit doesn’t come for Judge in Game 3 and the Yankees are able to advance, the Blue Jays are in for a world of shit in the ALDS. For someone who has been as critical of Judge in the playoffs as anyone in the world, I really believe this postseason could be his 2009 Alex Rodriguez postseason.
10. This series is playing out exactly as I expected and it’s why I would have had enormous confidence playing the Red Sox in any other format other than a best-of-3. They have arguably the best starting pitcher and closer in the game, but nothing else. Their second-best starter lasted 28 pitches, their third-best starter is out with an elbow injury. They are turning to a kid with four career starts to save their season and their lineup is full of names and players who could be sitting next to you right now and you would have no idea who they are. They are built for a three-game series and nothing else, and if the Yankees fail to advance against an inferior and banged-up roster with all games in the series in their own building, it will be more humiliating than any postseason loss under Boone, including the 2018 ALDS embarrassment, the 2022 ALCS sweep or the 2024 World Series disaster.
The Yankees have to save their season and end the Red Sox’ in Game 3. They have to.
Last modified: Oct 5, 2025
