There has never been and will never be a more clear path to the World Series for these Yankees.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.
1. The Astros went 12-5 against the Yankees in the 2017, 2019 and 2022 ALCS. They’re out. The Orioles went 8-5 against the Yankees in the regular season this year. They’re out. The Tigers and Royals did the job I feared the Yankees may not be able to do if they faced the Astros or Orioles this October. Now they don’t have to.
Three teams from the AL Central remain. Again, that’s three teams from the AL Central standing between the Yankees and their first pennant in 15 years.
The Yankees destroyed the AL Central in the regular season. They won the AL East and avoided the dangerous best-of-3 series because of the number they did on the AL Central in the regular season, including going 12-6 against the three Central teams remaining.
They went 4-2 against the Guardians. Both losses were in extra innings.
They went 4-2 against the Royals. One loss was a Clay Holmes blown save.
They went 4-2 against the Tigers. One loss was another Holmes blown save.
None of those three have any offense. They finished sixth, seventh and eighth in the AL in runs scored. Their entire success centers around their pitching and the Yankees’ bats will have to get to some combination of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Tarik Skubal, Tanner Bibee and other quality starters to end their AL pennant drought.
2. Those bats producing in October is what keeps me up at night. No matter what happens during the regular season, the entirety of the Yankees’ season each year hinges on whether or not the bats will be there in October. The bats haven’t shown up in a long time.
The dynastic Yankees of the late-‘90s and 2000s won in the postseason because their stars remained stars in October. When the 163rd game came, there was no drop-off in production despite only facing the top teams and elite pitching each game. Look at these regular season vs. postseason career numbers.
Derek Jeter regular season: .310/.377/.440
Derek Jeter postseason: .308/.374/.465
Bernie Williams regular season: .297/.381/.477
Bernie Williams postseason: .275/.371/.480
Paul O’Neill regular season: .288/.363/.470
Paul O’Neill postseason: .284/.363/.465
That hasn’t happened with this Yankees core. When October comes, these Yankees have always disappeared, and Aaron Judge has been as big of a problem as anyone.
Aaron Judge regular season: .288/.406/.604
Aaron Judge postseason: .211/.310/.462
3. Judge hasn’t had a postseason series OPS above .738 since the 2019 ALDS when the Yankees beat the shit out of the Twins. Since then he’s posted OPS of .681, .717, .637,. 500, .738 and .180 across a wild-card game, a wild-card series, two ALDS and two ALCS. He’s supposed to be the best hitter in the game, but he hasn’t even been the best hitter on the Yankees in a postseason series since the 2017 ALCS.
Judge has the home run record. He has the captaincy. He has the long-term contract and life-changing, generational wealth. The only thing missing is a championship, and this is his best chance to date to win one, and he may never get a chance as good as this again.
4. The Yankees have far and away the best roster of the remaining four AL teams. It’s not even close. And for as concerend as I am with the Yankees’ offense, their offense is in another stratosphere compared to the light-hitting Royals, Guardians and Tigers. But like the other three teams, the Yankees’ bottom of their order won’t do them any favors.
Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto, Judge, Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm are going to be the 1 through 6 hitters. After that’s, it’s likely to be Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo and Ben Rice in some order.
Volpe has been an offensive disappointment since his first major-league plate appearance. Verdugo was benched over the last two weeks of the season for being arguably the worst everyday hitter in the majors for six months and is only going to be playing because Jasson Dominguez can’t be trusted to catch fly balls. Rice was sent to the minors at the end of August after posting a .624 OPS over two months and is only on the team because the Yankees’ first and second options at first base (Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu are both injured). It’s bleak at 7 through 9.
One-third of the Yankees lineup is as close to being three automatic outs as there are in the postseason. So either the trio is going to have to provide some unexpected offense or a few big hits with runners on, or the top two-thirds of the lineup is going to have to carry all of the weight with the Yankees essentially giving away three innings worth of outs each game.
5. If the Yankees are going to willingly give away three innings worth of outs each game, Judge and Juan Soto are going to have to hit like they did in the regular season when they were being mentioned alongside Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth daily. I’m not worried about Soto. He has proven capable of handling October in his two postseason appearances, especially in 2019 when as a 20-year-old he hit three home runs and posted a 1.178 OPS against the Astros in the World Series. I am worried about Judge. For being as worried about Judge as I am, I do expect him to finally have that big postseason and carry the Yankees to the World Series. If not now, when?
6. When is centered around the future, and if the Yankees can’t get to the World Series against this field, I don’t know that there will be a future for Aaron Boone with the Yankees. Even though he was able to retain his position after the Yankees missed the postseason last year and finished with the club’s worst record in three decades, falling short with this team against those teams would have to mean the end for him, given that his contract expires this season.
With each previous failed postseason run, Boone has always talked about how close his teams have been and how sweet it will be once they finally win, only to never get close and never finally win. That has to change this October.
7. In-game management in close games isn’t exactly Boone’s forte. Well, neither is being transparent about injuries or accurate in player evaluations. Then again, communication — the trait he was sold to Yankees fans on — is a problem as well. OK, I don’t really know what Boone’s strong suit is. He’s a nice guy? That must be it. He’s a nice guy, loyal and someone you would want to grab some beers with. When it comes to being a capable, major-league manager though, to put it nicely, he has been a disaster to this point.
8. Boone has been exceptionally bad in the bad postseason. In his first postseason in 2018, in the pivotal Game 3 at home, his starting pitcher didn’t know the start time of the game. In that same game, he let that starting pitcher go back out for a third inning despite giving up piss missiles all over the place in the first two innings. By the time he decided to make a pitching change, the Yankees were down 3-0 and the bases were loaded with no outs. Despite having a stable of strikeout arms in his bullpen, he went to a starter with mediocre strikeout ability at the time and it ended in the Yankees suffering their most lopsided home postseason loss in franchise history.
The following night, facing elimination, he let CC Sabathia face the entire Red Sox lineup a second time because he liked the matchup of Sabathia against Jackie Bradley Jr., who was batting ninth. The Yankees were eliminated.
The next October, he used JA Happ in relief in extra innings in Game 2 of the ALCS. Carlos Correa walked off the Yankees and the Yankees went 1-4 over the final five games of the series.
In 2020, there was the Deivi Garcia-Happ debacle in the ALDS. In 2021, he led the odds-on favorite in the AL to a third-place finish in the division and a fifth-place finish in the AL. Their postseason lasted nine innings (and really just a half-inning of those nine thanks to Gerrit Cole).
In 2022, he changed his starting shortstop daily, somehow made Clarke Schmidt the first guy out of the bullpen in Game 1 of the ALCS, kept batting Josh Donaldson fifth and eventually used video from the 2004 Yankees’ ALCS collapse to motivate his own Yankees team.
9. The Boone Yankees are 14-17 in the postseason. A lot of it is because of the offense’s annual disappearing act, but Boone hasn’t done anything to elevate the game or the chances of his previous five postseason teams. If anything, he has been detrimental to their success.
I like to say that the Yankees need to outhit their own manager to win games to prevent him from having an impact on close games. That’s not possible in the playoffs where games are low scoring and close. Every decision Boone makes from the moment he starts to fill out his lineup card until the final out of each postseason game is crucial, and he has been incapable of handling the pressure that comes with making correct decision after correct decision, which is what it takes in October.
I want nothing more than for the Yankees to win and for Boone to win. I don’t want to sit through another end-of-the-season press conference with him telling everyone how close the team is and how sweet it’s going to be once they do win it all.
10. Boone’s decision-making shouldn’t be able to deter the Yankees from winning the AL this year. It shouldn’t matter in the AL playoffs if Verdugo plays or Dominguez plays. It shouldn’t matter if Wells bats cleanup or Chisholm does. It shouldn’t matter if Schmidt starts Game 3 or Luis Gil does. The Yankees are that much better than the three remaining AL opponents. The 50/50 choices and decisions around the margins shouldn’t be the difference between this team advancing or being shockingly eliminated. The Yankees were the best team in the AL in the regular season and are the best team remaining in the AL postseason. It’s time they played like it in October.
Last modified: Oct 5, 2024
